QUARTERLY FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS · 4 VALUATIONS March 31, 2015 December 31, 2015 March 31, 2016 S&P...

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QUARTERLY FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS APRIL 12, 2016 This presentation has been prepared exclusively for use by analysts, institutional investors and their consultants, registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, and sponsors of plans with a minimum of 100 participants. It is not intended for, and should not be used with, small plan sponsors, plan participants, or the public in written or oral form or for any other purpose. Copyright © 2016 by Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC Lord Abbett Distributor LLC 90 Hudson Street, Jersey City, NJ 07302-3973

Transcript of QUARTERLY FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS · 4 VALUATIONS March 31, 2015 December 31, 2015 March 31, 2016 S&P...

Page 1: QUARTERLY FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS · 4 VALUATIONS March 31, 2015 December 31, 2015 March 31, 2016 S&P 500 2067 2043 2066 MSCI ACWI 60.02 55.82 56.06 U.S. High Yield Spreads (Barclays

QUARTERLY FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS

APRI L 12 , 2016

This presentation has been prepared exclusively for use by analysts, institutional investors and their consultants, registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, and sponsors of plans with a minimum of 100 participants. It is not intended for, and should not be used with, small plan sponsors, plan participants, or the

public in written or oral form or for any other purpose.

Copyright © 2016 by Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC. All rights reserved.

Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC

Lord Abbett Distributor LLC

90 Hudson Street, Jersey City, NJ 07302-3973

Page 2: QUARTERLY FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS · 4 VALUATIONS March 31, 2015 December 31, 2015 March 31, 2016 S&P 500 2067 2043 2066 MSCI ACWI 60.02 55.82 56.06 U.S. High Yield Spreads (Barclays

2

FIRM PROFILE

2

OUR FIRM

A singular focus on the management of

money since 1929

OUR MISSION

Delivering superior long-term investment

performance and a client experience that

exceeds expectations

OUR DIFFERENTIATORS

Independent Perspective

Commitment to Active Management

Intelligent Product Design

AT A GLANCE

*Includes approximately $1.5 billion for which Lord Abbett

provides investment models to managed account sponsors.

AS OF MARCH 31, 2016

Independent, privately held firm

59 partners

Assets under management: $126.8 billion*

▫ $32.9 billion in equity strategies and

$93.9 billion in fixed-income strategies

143 investment professionals with an

average of 17 years of industry experience

INVESTMENT-LED. INVESTOR-FOCUSED.

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MACRO VIEW

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VALUATIONS

March 31, 2015 December 31, 2015 March 31, 2016

S&P 500 2067 2043 2066

MSCI ACWI 60.02 55.82 56.06

U.S. High Yield Spreads

(Barclays Corporate Index OAS) 464 660 656

U.S. IG Spreads

(Barclays Corporate Index OAS) 130 165 163

VIX 15.29 18.21 13.95

10-Year Rate

U.S. 1.92% 2.27% 1.77%

Germany 0.18% 0.63% 0.15%

Japan 0.39% 0.25% -0.10%

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

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GLOBAL TRENDS AND THEMES 2015 VS. 2016

03/31/2015 03/31/2016

European Concerns Grexit Brexit / Refugee Crisis

Oil (WTI) $57.32

Vol: 47.5

$35.72

Vol: 42.8

U.S. IG Corporate

Balance Sheet Leverage 2.4x 2.7x

Fed Uncertainty around first hike timing

and implications

Dovish Fed moving in line with

market expectations

Global Central Banks Policy Divergence Easy monetary policy and possible

coordination?

Source: Bloomberg. For illustrative purposes only.

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FED SHIFTS FOCUS OVERSEAS

Source: Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research, Federal Reserve.

NUMBER OF TIMES SPECIFIC WORDS WERE MENTIONED BY JANET YELLEN IN

HER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SPEECHES (AS OF 03/29/2016)

0

5

10

15

20

25

May 22 2015 July 10 2015 December 2 2015 March 29 2016

"Global" "Dollar" "China"

Wo

rd C

oun

t

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KEY CONCERNS

China Economic data weaker than expectations

Currency devaluation excessive

European Weakness Sovereign solvency issues again?

Immigration crisis

Central Bank Action How long before varying economic conditions rupture status quo

Which bank will be first to break ranks? ECB and BOJ most likely

Inflation United dovish central bank behavior requires stable inflation

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MONETARY POLICY IMPACTING DOLLAR

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

U.S. TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX (AS OF 02/29/2016)

90.00

95.00

100.00

105.00

110.00

115.00

120.00

125.00

130.00

Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16

124

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ASSET SENSITIVITY TO OIL ON THE DECLINE

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

CROSS-ASSET CORRELATION TO OIL (AS OF 03/28/2016)

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

Cross-Asset Correlation to Oil

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INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ALSO LESS SENSITIVE TO OIL

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

INFLATION VS. OIL (AS OF 03/31/2016)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

3/31/2014 6/30/2014 9/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/2015 12/31/2015 3/31/2016

Crude Oil Futures USD INFL Zero CPN 10 Y

Price

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INDUSTRIAL SLOWDOWN

PRIMARY INDICATORS OF A U.S. RECESSION (AS OF 2/29/2016)

*Nonfarm Payrolls data as of 03/31/2016. Source: Bloomberg

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

3/1/2005 3/1/2006 3/1/2007 3/1/2008 3/1/2009 3/1/2010 3/1/2011 3/1/2012 3/1/2013 3/1/2014 3/1/2015

U.S. Retail Sales Disposable Income U.S. Industrial Production Nonfarm Payrolls*

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Ch

an

ge

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WHERE IS THE VALUE?

POSITIVE

IG Corporates BBB vs. A and AA credit still looks compelling

CMBS Valuations reflect stalling real estate market

Shifting fundamentals means more differentiation

Favor class A retail, Multifamily, Industrial

Avoid suburban Office, certain strip malls and hotels

ABS Consumer still in good shape, abs structure offers value

Negative headlines may offer compelling opportunities

NEGATIVE

MBS GSE MBS Are particularly sensitive to volatility

A further move lower in rates could be highly disruptive

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Currencies, particularly JPY/USD and EUR/USD

Currency moves will transmit important information about changes in central bank

expectations, as well as economic stress

Oil

We believe there is a reasonable chance that oil stays lower than market

expectations, or falls back down. Will cross-asset correlations spike again?

Inflation

With Labor markets continuing to tighten, will stickier forms of inflation, such as

wage inflation, continue to rise?

Chinese economic data

As goes China, so goes the global economy. Today’s benign outlook cannot last if

the market fears large Yuan devaluations and a possible currency war

Negative yields

Negative yields ultimately distort efficient capital allocation, even while they boost

asset prices. This is unchartered territory for monetary policy, and may obviate

historical comparisons. The growth of negative DM yields will continue to change

investor behavior and be a key driver of global asset valuations.

KEY INDICATORS TO WATCH

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LEVERAGED CREDIT

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FALLEN ANGELS AS AN OPPORTUNITY SET

VOLUMES ACCELERATED IN 1Q16*

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Pa

r ($

bn

)

*As of 03/16/2016. **As of 03/14/2016. Source: Barclays Research. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Fallen Angel Average

Fallen Angel Median

Weeks from Downgrade Event

YT

D E

xc R

et R

el to

In

de

x

PERFORMANCE AROUND DOWNGRADE DATE FOR

ISSUERS THAT HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED THIS YEAR**

Most of the pain is taken pre-downgrade. In 2016, and historically, investment grade credits tended to

trade well after falling into the high yield market.

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CREDIT QUALITY BETTER OUTSIDE COMMODITIES

EX-COMMODITIES RATING MIGRATIONS REMAIN LOW (AS OF 03/31/2016)

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Cre

dit R

ating

Mig

ration

Ra

te,

Pe

rce

nt o

f Is

su

ers

Trailing 3mo Rating Migration Rate - US HY ex-Commodities

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10/31/2015 11/30/2015 12/31/2015 1/31/2016 2/29/2016 3/31/2016

Credit rallied significantly post S&P downgrade, thanks to strong HY market and announcement of

asset sales to improve balance sheet liquidity.

CASE STUDY – FREEPORT- MCMORAN, INC

As of 03/31/2016. Source: Bloomberg. Provided for illustrative purposes only. The information shown does not constitute a recommendation nor investment advice, and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. This is not a representation of any securities Lord Abbett purchased or would have purchased or that an investment in any securities of such issuers would be profitable.

FCX 3.55% DUE 3/1/22

1/27: Moody’s

downgrade

2/12: S&P

downgrade

3/1: FCX

enters HY

index

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OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND EQUATION

THE BIG PICTURE IN ENERGY

Source: IEA, JODI, HPDI, EIA, Rystad, WoodMac, Morgan Stanley Equity Research, and Morgan Stanley Commodity Research forecasts.

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct-

17

Implied Oversupply - SA Supply (RHS) Demand (RHS)

Base Case Oversupply (kb/d) Crude and condensate (mmb/d)

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WE MAY BE FINALLY HITTING AN INFLECTION POINT IN OIL

U.S. RIG COUNT DECLINING (AS OF 03/31/2016)

Source: Bloomberg. Data are most recent available. For illustrative purposes only.

U.S. oil rig count down by over 1100 since the end of 2014.

Supply/demand balance should stabilize towards mid-2017.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16

U.S. Oil Rig Count

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ENERGY BONDS ARE IN THE DISCOUNT AISLE

Source: Lord Abbett and BofA Merrill Lynch. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

HIGH YIELD ENERGY SECTOR PRICE BUCKETS

Total Market Value

Total Face Value

AS 03/29/2016 AS 02/05/2016

$5,001

$13,175

$35,825

$59,126

$2,326

$37,409 $36,204

$56,743

$68,659

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$0 - $25.00 $25.01 -$50.00

$50.01 -$75.00

$75.01 -$100

>$100

$2,396

$3,519 $10,125

$34,997

$90,402

$11,389 $28,396

$27,466

$54,531

$100,655

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$0 - $25.00 $25.01 -$50.00

$50.01 -$75.00

$75.01 -$100

>$100

$11,123

The sector has rallied since early February, but there are still opportunities for selective credit investors.

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CLO DEMAND IS DOWN, BUT SO IS LOAN ISSUANCE

Challenges in the CLO market may not be as bad for the leveraged loan market as some investors fear.

YTD CLO ISSUANCE RUNNING AT LOWER PACE

As of 03/11/2016. Source: S&P LCD, Morgan Stanley Research, J.P. Morgan.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

$ B

illio

n

Balance SheetArbitrage# of Transactions (RHS)

U.S. INSTITUTIONAL LOAN ISSUANCE

229

300

670

466

324

48 35

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTDMar-15

YTDMar-16

Institu

tio

na

l L

oa

n Is

su

an

ce (

$bn

)

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U.S. LEVERAGED LOANS: WIDE SPREADS AND LOW PRICES

Source: Credit Suisse. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bps represents a basis point. One basis point equals 0.01%. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

U.S. LEVERAGED LOAN SPREADS (AS OF 03/31/2016)

PERCENTAGE OF U.S. LEVERAGED LOANS TRADING ABOVE PAR (AS OF 03/31/2016)

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Mar-96 Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16

Dis

co

un

t M

arg

in S

pre

ad

(basis

poin

ts)

Average = 488 bps 621 bps

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

11%

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U.S HIGH YIELD SPREADS WELL ABOVE LONG-TERM AVERAGE

Source: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Yield spreads represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Constrained Index. The spread to worst measures the difference from the worst performing security to the best, and can be seen as a measure of dispersion of returns within a given market or between markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is important to note that the high-yield market may not perform in a similar manner under similar conditions in the future. The historical data shown in the chart above are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent any specific Lord Abbett product or any particular investment. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

U.S. HIGH YIELD SPREADS (AS OF 03/31/2016)

Average Spread = 604 bps

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16

Sp

rea

d to

Wo

rst (b

ps)

712 bps

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U.S. HIGH YIELD VALUATIONS BY RATING

SPREADS BETWEEN B AND BB (AS OF 03/31/2016)

Source: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only, and does not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett product or any particular investment.

Average = 585 bps

SPREADS BETWEEN CCC AND B (AS OF 03/31/2016)

Average = 195 bps

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16

Diffe

ren

ce

in Y

ield

s

258 bps

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16

Diffe

ren

ce

in Y

ield

s

1058 bps

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25 25

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This information in this presentation is only for illustrative purposes and is intended to provide general investment education and is not intended to

provide legal, tax or investment advice. It is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or research regarding a particular investment or the

markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict performance of any investment or serve as a recommendation or offer to buy or sell

securities. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are

those of Lord Abbett, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

A Few Words about Risk

Bonds are affected by interest rate movements. Bond prices and, likewise, a bond fund’s share price, generally move in the opposite direction of

interest rates. As the prices of bonds in a fund adjust to a rise in interest rates, a fund’s share price may decline. In addition, bonds are subject to

call, credit, liquidity, interest rate, and general market risks. Investors should be aware of the special risks involved with investments in high-yield

bonds. High-yield bonds invest in lower-rated, higher-yielding instruments, which are subject to increased risk of default and can potentially result

in loss of principal. Higher-yielding, lower-rated corporate bonds entail a greater degree of credit risk than investment-grade securities. Adverse

conditions may affect the issuer’s ability to pay interest and principal on the securities. Lower-rated bonds may carry greater risks than higher-rated

bonds. Mortgage-backed securities are susceptible to prepayment.

Please note: The credit quality of the securities in a portfolio are assigned by a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO), such

as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch, as an indication of an issuer’s creditworthiness. Ratings range from AAA (highest) to D (lowest). Bonds

rated BBB or above are considered investment grade. Credit ratings BB and below are lower-rated securities (junk bonds). High-yielding, non-

investment-grade bonds (junk bonds) involve higher risks than investment-grade bonds. Adverse conditions may affect the issuer’s ability to pay

interest and principal on these securities.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

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