Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts for Belgium using multi-dimensional...
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Transcript of Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts for Belgium using multi-dimensional...
Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation
forecasts for Belgium using multi-dimensional
remote sensing observations (QUEST-B)
Nicole van Lipziga, Laurent deLobbeb, Susanne Crewellc
a Physical and regional geography group, K.U.Leuven, Belgiumb Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI)
c Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Köln
Kwinten Van Weverberg (PhD project)Ingo Meirold-Mautner (PostDoc project)
LE
satellite
MSG ~ 5km; 15min Cloud Mask Cloud top pressureMODIS ~ 1km; 1day Cloud Mask Optical thickness
IPT / Micro-wave 1D vertical; Lindenberg (and Cabauw) temperature profile humidity profile LWC
GPS
147 stations; Germany; 30min IWV
Ceilometer
17 stations;Germany; 1min; ranges up to 4km Cloud base height Cloud cover (<4km)
Radar
DX radar composite; 1km; 5min Rain ratePolarimetric radar (DLR)
Multi-dimensional remote sensing
Radar of Wideumont
• C-band Doppler Radar Gematronik
• Tower : 46 m
• Antenna height : 592 m
• Antenna diameter : 4.2 m
• Measurements range:
240 km for reflectivity 120 km for velocity
Radar of Zaventem (Brussels)
• C-band Doppler Radar Radtec/Sigmet
• On the top of Brucargo . . .. building
• Antenna diameter : 4.2 m
• Measurements range:
250 km for reflectivity 120 km for velocity
LMK domain
Atmospheric models:
•Lokal-Modell: LMK (LMKürzestfrist) (Δx=2.8 km)
•Aladin (Δx=7 km; Δx=4 km) used for operational weather forecasting in Belgium: based on French AROME modeling system
•Advanced Regional Prediction System: ARPS (Δx=3 km)
Phase I: Model evaluation
Phase II: Compilation of precipitation distribution for two contrasting summer
seasons
•Improve understanding of causes for these differences in precipitation characteristics
•Input for soil erosion models and crop models
Soil erosion in Flanders(Belgium)(Verstraeten et al. 2003)
Orography of Belgium
y = 0.1089x1.8067
R2 = 0.82n = 11780
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1 10 100
P (mm) for every rain event
rain
ero
sivi
ty f
or
ea
ch r
ain
eve
nt
Amount of precipitation is important for soil erosion
P (mm) per rain event
Rai
n e
rosi
vity
fo
r a
rain
eve
nt
Timeseries forthe Belgian
station Ukkel
Verstraeten and Poesen, 2006
Sensitivity of the precipitation distribution for climatic changes
•Temperature forcing at the lateral boundaries of the model domain (surrogate climate scenarios)
•Effect of changes in atmospheric circulation (classification into weather types)
Summary
•Evaluation of QPF for Belgium using different atmospheric modeling systems
•Identify weaknesses and strengths of the different modeling systems (for regions, weather types, precipitation regimes …)
•Insight in precipitation changes on a small scale for climatic changes
•Interaction between different disciplines (meteorology, geography, agriculture) with respect to atmospheric branch of hydrological cycle