Quantitative approaches
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Transcript of Quantitative approaches
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Quantitative approaches
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The quest for numbers…
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… and the problems it leads to
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Why is it difficult?1. Debates on controversies over the concept and
very definition of environmental migration But similar controversies with regard to refugees
2. Intra-national movements
3. Confusion between the number of people living in affected regions and the number of migrants
Rooted in a deterministic perspective
4. Uncertainties about the impacts of climate change
5. Importance of the timeframe Are we talking about cumulative
migrations/displacements?
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What do we have so far?
Annual estimates of people displaced by disasters (IDMC)
A few statistical analyses inferences Example: Feng, Krueger and Oppenheimer on
Mexico-US migration (PNAS 2010) And even fewer multi-level analyses
Example: Henry et al. on Burkina Faso (2004)
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How to move forward? Set the right framework
Agree on the typology and definition
Re-scale predictions Is there a need for a global figure? Which level of warming?
Explore new methods
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New methods Multi-level analysis
One of the most robust methods Combines different methods on different levels
Household surveys Time-series
Allows for the monitoring of migration trends over longer periods of time
Multi-variate models
Agent-based modeling
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An exemple of multi-variate model (Ginnetti and Frank 2013)