QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

83
Derivative pricing MC and QMC methods Generation of Brownian paths Weighted norms Hermite spaces QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and perspectives Gunther Leobacher Johannes Kepler University Linz (JKU) WU Research Seminar Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Transcript of QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Page 1: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

QMC methods in quantitative finance, traditionand perspectives

Gunther Leobacher

Johannes Kepler University Linz (JKU)

WU Research Seminar

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 2: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

What is the content of the talk

Valuation of financial derivatives

in stochastic market models

using (QMC-)simulation

and why it might be a good idea

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 3: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

FWF SFB “Quasi-Monte Carlo methods: Theory and Applications”

http://www.finanz.jku.at

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 4: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

1 Derivative pricing

2 MC and QMC methods

3 Generation of Brownian paths

4 Weighted norms

5 Hermite spaces

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 5: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricing

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 6: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingBS and SDE models

Black-Scholes model:

Share: St = S0 exp((µ− σ2

2

)t + σWt

), t ∈ [0,T ],

µ is the (log)-driftσ is the (log)-volatility

Bond: Bt = B0 exp(rt), t ∈ [0,T ],

r > 0 is the interest rate

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 7: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingBS and SDE models

SDE-model (m-dimensional):

dSt = b(t,St)dt + a(t,St)dWt , t ∈ [0,T ],

S0 = s0

Black-Scholes model is special case of SDE models,dSt = µStdt + σStdWt

Other popular SDE-model:

dBt = rBtdt

dSt = µStdt +√

VtSt(ρdW 1t +

√1− ρ2dW 2

t )

dVt = κ(θ − Vt)dt + ξ√

Vt dW 1t

(B0, S0,V0) = (b0, s0, v0) .

for t ∈ [0,T ]. “Heston model”Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 8: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingBS and SDE models

A contingent claim is a contract that pays its owner anamount of money that depends on the evolution of the priceprocesses

more technically: a function that is F ST -measurable

(Information generated by price processes)

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 9: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingBS and SDE models

Examples:

European Call option on S1 with strike K and maturity Tpays max(S1

T − K , 0) at time T ;

Asian Call option on S1 pays max(

1T−T0

∫ TT0

S1t dt − K , 0

)at

time T ;

an example of a Basket option pays max(

1d

∑dk=1 Sk

T − K , 0)

at time T ;

much more complicated payoffs exist in practice.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 10: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingPrices as expectations

Under technical “no arbitrage condition” and existence of a“riskless” asset B = S j that we may use as a numerairewe have a (not necessarily unique) price, the price at time 0 of theclaim C with payoff φ at time T can be written in the form

π0(C ) = EQ

(B0B−1

T φ)

where Q is a pricing measure.

Only in rare cases can this expected value be computed explicitely.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 11: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingPrices as expectations

Assume a Black-Scholes modell and suppose we want to price anArithmetic average option

φ = max

(1

d

d∑k=1

S kdT − K , 0

)

that is, the derivative’s payoff depends on STd, . . . ,ST .

Let us compute its value, π0(φ) = EQ(exp(−rT )φ).

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 12: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingPrices as integrals

Share price at time knT under pricing measure

S kdT = s0 exp

((r − σ2

2

)k

dT + σW k

dT

)d= s0 exp

(r − σ2

2)

k

dT + σ

√1

dT

k∑j=1

Zj

,

where Z1, . . . ,Zd are independent standard normals.

π0(φ) = EQ

(ψ(Z1, . . . ,Zd)

)=

∫Rd

ψ(z1, . . . , zd) exp(− 1

2(z2

1 + · · ·+ z2d ))

(2π)−d2 dz1 . . . dzd

where ψ is some (moderately complicated) function in d variables.Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 13: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingPrices as integrals

That is, the price of the claim can be calculated as ad-dimensional integral over Rd .

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 14: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingPrices as integrals

Same argument can be made for SDE models and much simplerpayoff.Solve SDE using, for example, Euler-Maruyama method with dsteps:

S0 = s0

S(k+1)Td

= Sk Td

+ µ(Sk Td,

k

dT )

T

d+ σ(Sk T

d,

k

dT )

√T

dZk+1

k = 1, . . . , d .Means that ST is a function of Z1, . . . ,Zd . Expectation overpayoff is again an integral over Rd .

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 15: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

BS and SDE modelsPrices as expectationsPrices as integrals

Derivative pricingPrices as integrals

Remark

Let Φ be the cumulative distribution function of the standardnormal distribution, and let Φ−1 denote its inverse.Then∫

Rd

ψ(z1, . . . , zd) exp(− 1

2(z2

1 + · · ·+ z2d ))

(2π)−d2 dz1 . . . dzd

=

∫(0,1)d

ψ(Φ−1(u1), . . . ,Φ−1(ud)

)du1 . . . dud

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 16: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methods

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 17: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsHigh-dimensional integration

Suppose f : [0, 1)d −→ R is integrable and we want to know

I =

∫[0,1)d

f (x)dx .

For small d we may use product rules with n nodes per coordinate.For example, set xk = k

n and consider the one-dimensional rule

∫ 1

0g(x)dx ≈ 1

n

n−1∑k=0

g(xk)

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 18: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

By Fubini’s theorem

I =

∫[0,1)d

f (x)dx =

∫ 1

0. . .

∫ 1

0f (x1, . . . , xd)dx1 . . . dxd

and thus

I ≈ 1

n

n−1∑k1=0

. . .1

n

n−1∑kd=0

f (xk1 , . . . , xkd ) .

doubling n in the one-dimensional integration rule multpliesthe number of function evaluations in the product rule by 2d .

calculation cost increases exponentially in required accuracy

this is known as “Curse of dimension”

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 19: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsMonte Carlo

Idea: I = E(f (U1, . . . ,Ud)), where U1, . . . ,Ud are independentuniform random variables.

Consider an independent sequence (Uk)k≥0 of uniform randomvectors. Then

P

(lim

N→∞

1

N

N−1∑k=0

f (Uk) = I

)= 1 ,

by the strong law of large numbers.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 20: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsMonte Carlo

If, in addition, σ2 := E(f (U1, . . . ,Ud)2)− I 2 <∞, we have byTchebychev’s inequality for every ε > 0

P

(∣∣∣∣∣ 1

N

N−1∑k=0

f (Uk)− I

∣∣∣∣∣ > ε

)≤ σ2

Nε2.

Suppose we want an error less than ε with probability 1− α, or,equivalently, an error greater than ε with probability α.

σ2

Nε2≤α⇔ N ≥ σ2

ε2α

The number of integration nodes grows (only) quadratically in 1ε .

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 21: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsQuasi-Monte Carlo

For a = (a1, . . . , ad) ∈ [0, 1]d

let [0, a) := [0, a1)× . . .× [0, ad).

Definition (Discrepancy function)

Let PN = {x0, . . . , xN−1} ∈ [0, 1)d . Then the discrepancyfunction ∆PN

: [0, 1]d −→ R is defined by

∆PN(a) :=

#{0 ≤ k < N : xk ∈ [0, a)}N

− λd([0, a)) , (a ∈ [0, 1]d)

λd denotes d-dimensional Lebesgue measure

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 22: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsQuasi-Monte Carlo

Definition (Star discrepancy)

PN = {x0, . . . , xN−1} ∈ [0, 1)d . Then the star discrepancyD∗(PN) is defined by

D∗(PN) := supa∈[0,1]d

|∆PN(a)| = ‖∆PN

‖∞

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 23: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsQuasi-Monte Carlo

If U0,U1, . . . is a sequence of random vectors uniform in [0, 1)d ,and PN = {U0, . . . ,UN−1}, then

limN→∞

D∗(PN) = 0 a.s.

“Low discrepancy sequences” are designed tohave this convergence as fast as possible

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 24: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

random Halton

lattice digital

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 25: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsQuasi-Monte Carlo

For every dimension d ≥ 1 there exist a sequence (xn)n≥0 in

[0, 1)d , such that D∗(PN) = O(

(log N)d

N

), where

PN = {x0, . . . , xN−1}

We call such a sequence with this property a low discrepancysequence

There exists a constant c > 0 such that for any sequence

x0, x2, . . . ∈ [0, 1) we have lim infN D∗(PN) ≥ c log(N)d2

N ,where PN = {x0, . . . , xN−1}

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 26: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

Idea: let a ∈ [0, 1)d . Let (xk)k≥0 be a low-discrepancy sequence.

We have seen that for some C∣∣∣∣#{0 ≤ k < N : xk ∈ [0, a)}N

− λs([0, a))

∣∣∣∣ ≤ Clog(N)d

N

i.e. ∣∣∣∣∣ 1

N

N−1∑k=0

1[0,a)(xk)−∫

[0,1)d1[0,a)(x)dx

∣∣∣∣∣ ≤ Clog(N)d

N

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 27: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

We may have the hope that, for suitably behaved integrands, and alow discrepancy sequence (xk)k≥0,∣∣∣∣∣ 1

N

N−1∑k=0

f (xk)−∫

[0,1)df (x)dx

∣∣∣∣∣ ≤ Clog(N)d

N

(For large N this convergence would be much faster than N−12 .)

The Koksma-Hlawka states that this is true indeed.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 28: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

Theorem (Koksma-Hlawka inequality)

Let f : [0, 1)d −→ R and P = {x0, . . . , xN−1} ⊆ [0, 1)d . Then∣∣∣∣∣ 1

N

N−1∑k=0

f (xk)−∫

[0,1)df (x)dx

∣∣∣∣∣ ≤ V (f )D∗(P) ,

where V (f ) denotes the total variation of f in the sense of Hardyand Krause.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 29: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

We have

V (f ) =∑

u⊆{1,...,d}

∫[0,1]|u|

∣∣∣∣∣∂|u|f∂xu(xu, 1)

∣∣∣∣∣ dxu

if the mixed derivatives of f exist and are integrable.Here, (xu, 1) denotes the vector ones obtains by replacingcoordinates with index not in u by 1

and ∂|u|f∂xu

means derivative by every variable with index in u

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 30: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

Double logarithmic plot:

10 20 30 40

-40

-20

20 N-1

N-1/2

log2(N)2/N

log2(N)5/N

log2(N)8/N

log2(N)12/N

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 31: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

Suggests to use QMC for small to moderate dimensions only.However, in the late 20th century, starting with work by Paskovand Traub, “practitioners” started to observe the followingphenomenon

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 32: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 33: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

-4.5

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Asian option

RandomHaltonSobol

N^(-1/2)

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 34: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

High-dimensional integrationMonte CarloQuasi-Monte CarloKoksma-Hlawka inequality

MC and QMC methodsKoksma-Hlawka inequality

This phenomenon frequently occured in applications frommathematical finance, or, more concretely, in derivative pricing.

Where does this apparent superiority come from?

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 35: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian paths

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 36: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

Brownian motion is a process is continuous time

For numerical computation one usually only needs theBrownian path at finitely many nodes t1, . . . , tddefine a discrete Brownian path on nodes 0 < t1 < . . . < td asGaussian vector (Bt1 , . . . ,Btd ) with mean zero and covariancematrix

(min(tj , tk)

)dj ,k=1

=

t1 t1 t1 . . . t1

t1 t2 t2 . . . t2

t1 t2 t3 . . . t3...

......

. . ....

t1 t2 t3 . . . td

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 37: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

For simplicity we only consider the evenly spaced case, i.e.,tk = k

d T , k = 1, . . . , d . And we specialize to T = 1.Then the covariance matrix takes on the form

(min(tj , tk)

)dj ,k=1

=1

d

1 1 1 . . . 11 2 2 . . . 21 2 3 . . . 3...

......

. . ....

1 2 3 . . . d

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 38: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

Three classical constructions of discrete Brownian paths:

the forward method, a.k.a. step-by-step method or piecewisemethod

the Brownian bridge construction or Levy-Ciesielskiconstruction

the principal component analysis construction (PCAconstruction)

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 39: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

Forward method:

given a standard normal vector X = (X1, . . . ,Xd)

compute discrete Brownian path inductively by

B 1d

=

√1

dX1 , B k+1

d= B k

d+

√1

dXk+1

Using that E(XjXk) = δjk , it is easy to see that (B 1d, . . . ,B1)

has the required correlation matrix

simple and efficient: generation of the normal vector plus dmultiplications and d − 1 additions.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 40: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

Brownian bridge construction: allows the values B 1d, . . . ,B d

dto be

computed in any given order

Lemma

Let B be a Brownian motion and let r < s < t.Then the conditional distribution of Bs given Br ,Bt is N(µ, σ2)with

µ =t − s

t − rBs +

s − r

t − rBt and σ2 =

(t − s)(s − r)

t − r.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 41: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

Bs

µ

Bt

tr

Br = µ+ σZ

s

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 42: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

Discrete path can be computed in time proportional to d ,given that factors are precomputed

typical order of construction B1,B 12,B 1

4,B 3

4,B 1

8, . . . (for

d = 2m)

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 43: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsClassical constructions

PCA construction:

exploits the fact that correlation matrix Σ of (B 1d, . . . ,B d

d) is

positive definite

can be written Σ = VDV−1 for a diagonal matrix D withpositive entries and an orthogonal matrix V

D can be written as D = D12 D

12 , where D

12 is the

element-wise positive square root of D

now compute

(B 1d, . . . ,B d

d)> = VD

12 X .

X a standard normal random vector

matrix-vector multiplication can be done in time proportionalto d log(d) (Scheicher 2007)

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 44: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

Why do we need more than one construction?

Consider the problem of valuating an average value option inthe Heston model.

Use Euler-Maruyama method to solve SDE

Test the different approaches numerically:

model parameters: s0 = 100, v0 = 0.3, r = 0.03, ρ = 0.2,κ = 2, θ = 0.3, ξ = 0.5,option parameters: K = 100, T = 1.d = 64

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 45: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

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4 6 8 10

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

1

2

ò BB2

ì PCA

à BB

æ Forward

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 46: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

Can we explain this behavior?

QMC seems to perform better if some of the variables aremore important than the others

alternative construction often help to put more weight onearlier variables

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

Page 47: QMC methods in quantitative finance, tradition and ...

Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

All variables but the first left constant:

10 20 30 40 50 60

-15

-10

-5

5

10

15

10 20 30 40 50 60

-15

-10

-5

5

10

15

forward brownian bridge

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

All variables but the seventh left constant:

10 20 30 40 50 60

-15

-10

-5

5

10

15

10 20 30 40 50 60

-15

-10

-5

5

10

15

forward brownian bridge

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

notion of effective dimension

tries to explain why problem behaves low-dimensional w.r.t.QMCuses concept of ANOVA decomposition of a function intolower-dimensional components

alternative concept: weighted Korobov- or Sobolev spaces

give Koksma-Hlawka type inequalities with weightednorm/discrepancysequence need not be as well-distributed in coordinates thatare less important

both concepts have some connections

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

But caution is in order“Ratchet” Option: (Papageorgiou 2002) Same example model, butdifferent payoff:

f (STd,S 2T

d, . . . ,ST ) =

1

d

d∑j=1

1[0,∞)

(S jT

d− S (j−1)T

d

)S jT

d.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsExamples

æ

æ

æ

æ

æ

æ

æ

æ

æ

à

à

à

à

à

à

à

à

à

ì

ì

ì

ì

ì

ì

ì

ì

ì

ò

ò

ò

ò

ò

ò

ò

ò

ò

4 6 8 10

-3

-2

-1

1

2

ò BB2

ì PCA

à BB

æ Forward

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsOrthogonal transforms

Whether a path construction is ”good” or not depends on thepayoff as well

before we continue with asking why QMC is good whencombined with some pairs of payoffs/constructions

we want a general framework for the constructions

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsOrthogonal transforms

Cholesky decomposition of Σ(d): Σ(d) = SS>, where

S = S (d) :=1√d

1 0 0 . . . 01 1 0 . . . 01 1 1 . . . 0...

......

. . ....

1 1 1 . . . 1

.

Note that Sy is the cumulative sum over y divided by√

d ,

Sy =1√d

(y1, y1 + y2, . . . , y1 + . . .+ yd)>

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsOrthogonal transforms

Lemma (Papageorgiou 2002)

Let A be any d × d matrix with AA> = Σ and let X be a standardnormal vector. Then B = AX is a discrete Brownian path withdiscretization 1

d ,2d , . . . ,

d−1d , 1.

Lemma (Papageorgiou 2002)

Let A be any d × d matrix with AA> = Σ. Then there is anorthogonal d × d matrix V with A = SV . Conversely,SV (SV )> = Σ for every orthogonal d × d matrix V .

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Classical constructionsExamplesOrthogonal transforms

Generation of Brownian pathsOrthogonal transforms

orthogonal transform corresponding to forward method is idRd

Brownian bridge construction for d = 2k , with orderB1,B 1

2,B 1

4,B 3

4,B 1

8,B 3

8,B 5

8, . . ., is given by the inverse Haar

transform

for the PCA, the orthogonal transform has been givenexplicitly in terms of the fast sine transform

many orthogonal transforms can be computed usingO(d log(d)) operations (L. 2012)

Examples include: Walsh, discrete sine/cosine, Hilbert,Hartley, wavelet and others

orthogonal transforms have no influence on the probabilisticstructure of the problem

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Consider functions on [0, 1]d and the following norm:

‖f ‖2 =∑

u⊆{1,...,d}

∫[0,1]|u|

∣∣∣∣∣∂|u|f∂xu(xu, 1)

∣∣∣∣∣2

dxu

Here, (xu, 1) denotes the vector one obtains by replacingcoordinates with index not in u by 1

and ∂|u|f∂xu

means derivative by every variable with index in u(the corresponding 1-norm, if defined and finite, equals thevariation in the sense of Hardy and Krause)

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Sloan & Wozniakowski (1998) indroduced a sequence of weightsγ1 ≥ γ2 ≥ . . . > 0 and defined a weighted norm instead

‖f ‖2 =∑

u⊆{1,...,d}

γ−1u

∫[0,1]|u|

∣∣∣∣ ∂f

∂xu(xu, 1)

∣∣∣∣2 dxu

where γu =∏

k∈u γk

For example, if∑∞

k=1 γk <∞, this makes contributions of largerindices bigger

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Rephrased: higher dimensions need to be less relevant tomake norm still small

Sloan & Wozniakowski (1998) present corresponding weighteddiscrepancy and weighted Koksma-Hlawka inequality

Requirements on discrepancy more relaxed =⇒ have betterdependence on dimension

Sloan & Wozniakowski (1998) only show existence of goodintegration nodes

for example, if∑∞

k=1 γk <∞, then we can make theintegration error small, independently of dimension!!

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Since then deviation from “One-size-fits-all approach” forconstruction of QMC point sets and sequences

(Fast) Component-by-component constructions of point setsfor given weights Dick & L. & Pillichshammer, Cools &Nuyens, Kritzer & L. & Pillichshammer, Dick & Kritzer & L.& Pillichshammer

Many different norms/spaces and equi-distribution measures

Main tool: reproducing kernel Hilbert space,that is,a Hilbert space of functions for which function evaluation iscontinuous

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Thus, the problem was solvedThe endOr is it ?

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Not quite!

Transformation of financial problems to unit cube usuallyleads to infinite (weighted) norm

there is no guarantee that finite norm with respect to onepath construction gives finite norm in anotherdirections of coordinate axes are special

no or very few means to find “optimal” construction

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

Weighted norms

Idea by Irrgeher & L.(2015): find a class of reproducing kernelHilbert spaces

of functions on the Rd

with a weighted norm

that is continuous w.r.t. orthogonal transforms of the Rd

and allows for tractability/complexity discussions

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spaces

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesOne-dimensional Hermite space

φ(x) := 1√2π

exp(− x2

2 ), x ∈ R

L2(R, φ) = {f : measurable and∫R |f |

2φ <∞}(Hk)k . . . sequence of normalized Hermite polynomials

(i.e. H0, H1, H2, . . . is the Gram-Schmidt

orthogonalization of 1, x , x2, . . . in L2(R, φ)

(Hk)k . . . forms Hilbert space basis of L2(R, φ), i.e.

f =∑k≥0

f (k)Hk in L2(R, φ)

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesOne-dimensional Hermite space

Theorem (Irrgeher & L. (?))

Let (rk)k≥0 be a sequence with

rk > 0∑k≥0 rk <∞

If f : R→ R is continuous,∫R f (x)2φ(x)dx <∞, and∑

k≥0 r−1k |f (k)|2 <∞ then

f (x) =∑k≥0

f (k)Hk(x) for all x ∈ R

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesOne-dimensional Hermite space

Fix some positive summable sequence r = (rk)k≥0

Introduce new inner product:

〈f , g〉her :=∞∑k=0

r−1k f (k)g(k)

and corresponding norm ‖.‖her := 〈., .〉1/2,

‖f ‖2her :=

∞∑k=0

r−1k f (k)2

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One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesOne-dimensional Hermite space

Theorem (Irrgeher & L.(2015))

The Hilbert space

Hher(R) := {f ∈ L2(R, φ) ∩ C (R) : ‖f ‖her <∞}

is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space with reproducing kernel

Kher(x , y) =∑k∈N0

r(k)Hk(x)Hk(y)

(Can compute function evaluation by inner productf (x) = 〈f (.),K (x , .)〉her, ∀x ∈ R)

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One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesOne-dimensional Hermite space

There are indeed some interesting functions in Hher(R):

Theorem (Irrgeher & L.(2015))

Let rk = k−α, let β > 2 be an integer, and let f : R −→ R be a βtimes differentiable function such that

(i)∫R |D

jx f (x)|φ(x)1/2dx <∞ for each j ∈ {0, . . . , β} and

(ii) D jx f (x) = O(ex

2/(2c)) as |x | → ∞ for each j ∈ {0, . . . , β − 1}and some c > 1.

Then f ∈Hher(R) for all α with 1 < α < β − 1.

(derivatives up to order β > α+ 1 exist, satisfy an integrability andgrowth condition)

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One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesd-dimensional Hermite space

For a d-multi-index k = (k1, . . . , kd) define

Hk(x1, . . . , xd) :=d∏

j=1

Hkj (xj)

defines Hilbert space basis of L2(Rd , φ)

write fk := 〈f , Hk〉 =∫Rd f (x)Hk(x)φ(x)dx

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One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

We consider

Hher,γ(Rd) := Hher(R)⊗ . . .⊗Hher(R).

with the inner product

〈f , g〉her,γ =∑k∈Nd

0

r(γ, k)−1f (k)g(k)

where the function r(γ, .) : Nd0 −→ R is given by

r(γ, k) =d∏

j=1

(δ0(kj) + (1− δ0(kj))γ−1j rkj )

i.e. r(γ, k) =∏d

j=1 r(γj , kj) where

r(γ, k) :=

{1 k = 0

γ−1rk k ≥ 1

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One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesd-dimensional Hermite space

“Canonical” RK:

Kher,γ(x, y) :=∑k∈Nd

0

r(γ, k)Hk(x)Hk(y)

With this Hher,γ is weighted RKHS of functions on the Rd

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesd-dimensional Hermite space

Integration:

I (f ) =

∫Rd

f (x)φ(x)dx

Theorem (Irrgeher & L.(2015))

Integration in the RKHS Hher,γ(Rd) is

strongly tractable if∑∞

j=1 γj <∞,

tractable if lim supd1

log d

∑dj=1 γj <∞.

Irrgeher, Kritzer, L., Pillichshammer (2015) study Hermite spacesof analytic functions and find lower bounds on complexity

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesd-dimensional Hermite space

Why are we interested in this kind of space?

Let f ∈Hher,γ and let U : Rd −→ Rd some orthogonaltransform, U>U = 1Rd

then f ◦ U ∈Hher,γ

also∫Rd f ◦ U(x)φ(x)dx =

∫Rd f (x)φ(x)dx

but in general ‖f ◦ U‖her,γ 6= ‖f ‖her,γ

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Hermite spacesExample

Example from Irrgeher & L.(2015): compute E(exp(W1)), whereW is a Brownian pathCorresponds to integrating function a f : Rd → R, if W1 iscomputed using the foirward construction

f ∈Hher,γ for a sensible choice of γ

‖f ‖her,γ ≥ ced for some c and all d ∈ N‖f ◦ U‖her,γ ≤ C for some C , where U is the inverse Haartransform

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesExample

norm of ‖f ◦ U‖ depends on U in a continuous fashion.

We can – in principle – use optimization techniques to findbest transform

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesExample

An earlier result/method by Irrgeher & L. is better understoodin the context of Hermite spaces

instead of minimizing the weighted norm of ‖f ◦ U‖, minimizea seminorm which does not take into account all Hermitecoefficients

for example, only consider order one coefficients

method is termed linear regression method and generatespaths in linear time

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Average value option

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

Forward

PCA

LT

Regression

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Average value basket option

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

Forward

PCA

LT

Regression

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Average value barrier option

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

Forward

PCA

Regression

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Hermite spacesConclusion

We have provided a potential approach to explaining toeffectiveness of QMC for high-dimensional financialapplications

the approach enabled us to find a method that is practicallythe best available at the moment

different lines of research:

construct point sets/sequences for those spacesgeneralize regression method to higher oder approximationsmake regression method more “automatic”deal with “kinks”

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

Thank you !

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance

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Derivative pricingMC and QMC methods

Generation of Brownian pathsWeighted normsHermite spaces

One-dimensional Hermite spaced-dimensional Hermite spaceExampleExamples regression algorithmConclusion

C. Irrgeher, P. Kritzer, G. Leobacher, F. Pillichshammer Integration in Hermitespaces of analytic functions. J. Complexity (31), pp. 380-404. 2015

J. Dick, P. Kritzer, G. Leobacher, F. Pillichshammer A reduced fastcomponent-by-component construction of lattice points for integration inweighted spaces with fast decreasing weights. J. Comput. Appl. Math. (276),pp. 1-15. 2015

C. Irrgeher, G. Leobacher High-dimensional integration on Rd , weighted Hermitespaces, and orthogonal transforms. J. Complexity (31), pp. 174-205. 2015

G. Leobacher, F. Pillichshammer Introduction to quasi-Monte Carlo Integrationand Applications. Compact Textbooks in Mathematics, Birkhauser/Springer

G. Leobacher Fast orthogonal transforms and generation of Brownian paths.Journal of Complexity (28), pp. 278-302. 2012

I. Sloan, H. Woniakowski: When Are Quasi-Monte Carlo Algorithms Efficient forHigh Dimensional Integrals? Journal of Complexity (14), pp. 1–33, 1998.

A. Papageorgiou: The Brownian Bridge Does Not Offer a Consistent Advantagein Quasi-Monte Carlo Integration. Journal of Complexity (18), pp. 171–186,2002.

Gunther Leobacher QMC methods in quantitative finance