Quarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

A Member of Real Living

Market Appreciation: A Glimpse Into the Future 5

Move-Up Buyers: Now Is the Time to Act! 6

Contra Costa County 8

East Bay 12

Marin County 16

Napa County 20

San Francisco 24

Sonoma County 32

Sonoma Valley 36

Tahoe/Truckee 40

Table of Contents

Market Appreciation: A Glimpse Into the FutureWe are frequently asked how long the current real estate market or housing cycle will run. Our industry is not short on opinions, predictions, and speculations. This past month, I reviewed the most comprehensive housing report I have read since 2007: The John Burns Real Estate Consulting Home Value Index.

The report defines housing-cycle risk as a function of demand, supply, and affordability. This is a fairly simple perspective that comes as no surprise. The forecast or outlook is dependent on job growth for demand and excess supply in the forms of new construction or foreclosures. On a relative scale compared with the housing market in the U.S., our local markets have limited excess supply at this time.

The Burns report goes on to note that the markets with the most upside are clearly those that experienced the most significant downs. Again, this concept is not overly complex, and the variables are relatively easy to comprehend.

The most stimulating aspect of the report is in the Burns Home Value Index Forecast for December 2017. We have often struggled with the S&P/Case-Shiller and similar indexes, which generally offer perspectives based on 90 to 120 days trailing market performance and do not look forward.

The Burns report cites summary research from nearly 100 economists’ responses to questions about housing appreciation in the U.S. from Q4 2012 through December 2017. The Burns report estimates 35.9 percent appreciation through December 2017, with more than 9 percent already realized through September 2013. The 100 economists’ consensus for that same time frame was 22.9 percent appreciation, with 6 percent already realized.

The Burns report provides regional outlooks on nearly 100 markets. The Bay Area findings are illustrated in the table below:

With the caveat that real estate is local and each neighborhood and home is unique, these forecasts are very reassuring. In particular, the outlook for 2017 is exceptionally encouraging. However, the report illustrates that the majority of the lift in the market will occur in 2014 and 2015, with modest to flat growth in 2016 and 2017.

The opportunity to realize value in real estate and historically low mortgage rates is now. Mortgages will likely exceed 6 percent by 2016, a 30 percent increase from today’s rates.

Your local Pacific Union real estate professional is uniquely positioned to review macro trends and neighborhood specifics to assist you in your residential real estate investments. Please remember that your most significant real estate investment is in your home — which is a place to live and create memories — rather than just your house.

Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union

Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis, and expert advice for your real estate decisions.

San Francisco 17.3% 6.9% 19.0%

Oakland 33.5% 11.8% 24.0%

Santa Rosa 26.9% 12.4% 26.0%

Trailing 12 Month Appreciation

August 2014 Forecast

December 2017 ForecastMarket

Move-Up Buyers: Now Is the Time to Act!Many would-be move-up buyers have been sitting on the sidelines in recent months, crossing their fingers that the Bay Area’s superheated real estate market will cool. But conditions are about to get tougher – so hesitant move-up buyers should act now.

Looming ahead is the prospect of rising interest rates coupled with continued price appreciation in home sales. Buyers who don’t seize the moment will likely regret it with their checkbooks down the road.

“I tell people to buy everything you can afford to buy with these interest rates today,” says Patrick Barber, president of Pacific Union’s San Francisco region. “They cannot stay this low forever.”

We’re already seeing the truth in that statement. At the start of the year, the APR for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 3.41, one of the lowest levels ever recorded. But in June, rates crept above 4.0 percent. By the end of August, they were at 4.46 percent – a 31 percent rise.

In mid-September, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly announced that it would continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities, in a move that some feel could keep interest rates fairly low for the remainder of the year. Savvy buyers, however, will want to be prepared for a worst-case scenario.

For example, let’s suppose that buyers who are upgrading their home will spend about 35 percent above the median sales prices, which was $715,714 across Pacific Union’s seven Bay Area regions as of September 9. Let’s also assume that the median sales price in the region will increase 12 percent annually and interest rates will climb 1 percentage point per year.

By that math, move-up buyers who delay their purchases for two years could spend nearly $39,000 more each year in monthly payments, as well as almost $100,000 extra for their down payment.

Some people have already worked out the math. In San Francisco, one of our top real estate professionals notes we are seeing the most activity in the move-up-buyer population since the recession. In Marin County, increasing inventory has spurred an uptick in purchases by move-up buyers, says Brent Thomson, Pacific Union’s senior vice president in the region

Out With the Old – But How?

Whether they’re primed to act now or not, Bay Area move-up buyers face one dilemma that first-time buyers do not: They not only need to find new homes in a hot market, they also need to sell their current properties.

August 2013 August 2014 August 2015

Market appreciation (estimated) n/a 12% 12%

Median sales price $715,714 $801,600 $897,792

"Move-up" median sales price (+ 35%) $966,214 $1,082,160 $1,212,019

Down payment (20%) on move-up price $193,243 $216,432 $242,404

Increase in down payment versus 2013 n/a $23,189 $49,161

Total mortgage amount $772,971 $865,728 $969,615

Potential APR (jumbo, 30-year fixed) 4.46% 5.46% 6.46%

Total monthly mortgage payment $3,898 $4,894 $6,103

Increase in monthly payment versus 2013 n/a $996 $2,205

Potential first-year additional cost versus 2013 n/a $35,136.57 $75,620.48

Move-Up Buyers: The High Cost of Waiting

That’s not a problem if you’re flush with cash. But if you have limited funds, you might need to sell your current home before buying a new one or negotiate a rent-back agreement, which would allow you to remain in your sold home while you search for a new residence.

“The safe bet is to always sell your property and get a rent-back,” says Barber. “If you buy a piece of property (before you sell), you have a large financial commitment. Most families cannot afford two mortgages.”

Our real estate professional reports that she has had some success working with clients who attempt to sell their existing home while buying a new one. “Once their offer (on their new home) is accepted, they prepare the old home for market as fast as possible,” she says. “But everything has to go very smoothly in order for the seller not to be in the stressful position of owning two homes at once.”

You might be able to make the sale of your current home contingent on finding another acceptable property, but the success of this strategy depends on market conditions. The approach has worked for some move-up buyers in Marin County, says Thomson, but there’s a catch: “The key is that the house that they are selling has to be priced right,” she says.

And in many markets where sellers are receiving multiple offers, they may be less likely to accept your contingent offer when other, clear offers are available.

Financing Options for Move-Up Buyers

If you’re ready to hop off the fence but don’t have money to put toward a new home, bridge-financing products – short-term loans that can help you purchase a new home before your current home sells – may be a solution. While bridge loans can help ensure you don’t miss out on your dream property while your current one sits on the market, they do carry higher interest rates than regular mortgages.

Another option is the HomeBuyer product from FirstREX, which is offered via Pacific Union partner Mortgage Services Professionals. FirstREX’s product enables you to make up a cash shortfall by loaning you 50 percent of the down payment in exchange for a stake in your current home’s eventual price appreciation or depreciation.

As with any homebuying transaction, you should consult with a reputable mortgage provider who can offer guidance on all your financing options.

Whichever approach you take, one thing’s for sure: It’s time to come off the sidelines and get into the game, or you risk some big financial penalties in years ahead.

Bay Area 10-Year OverviewHere’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the third quarter of 2013, with a glance back at the 10 preceding third quarters.

Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.

REGION Q3 '03 Q3 '04 Q3 '05 Q3 '06 Q3 '07 Q3 '08 Q3 '09 Q3 '10 Q3 '11 Q3 '12 Q3 '13

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 4,054 3,878 3,820 2,470 1,592 3,420 3,364 2,831 3,110 3,084 2,820

EAST BAY 901 958 761 681 570 556 492 523 539 684 697

MARIN COUNTY 879 793 726 588 496 492 483 466 525 662 690

NAPA COUNTY 432 409 437 282 187 296 340 330 338 382 368

SAN FRANCISCO (SFH) 867 851 754 643 520 619 651 578 626 637 672

SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS) 674 686 660 537 488 491 480 462 509 681 680

SONOMA COUNTY 1,873 1,911 1,762 1,165 901 1,271 1,236 1,150 1,274 1,451 1,390

SONOMA VALLEY 163 173 170 116 103 112 109 123 138 168 164

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH) 156 422 392 269 176 204 255 266 289 344 379

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS) 30 128 114 83 54 56 82 72 70 86 98Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, TSIERRA, October 4, 2013.

Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q3 Homes Sold

Ellen AndersonSenior Vice President, Contra Costa County925.743.9330ellen.anderson@pacunion.com101 Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526

Contra Costa CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

Contra Costa County: Q3 ResultsJuly was exceptionally busy in our Contra Costa County region, contributing to a strong third quarter. Sales slowed a bit in August, following seasonal patterns, then picked up again in September. We also saw inventory expand by September, offering welcome relief for buyers. Multiple offers remained the rule, but bidding wars weren’t quite as frenzied as they were in past quarters.

Most homes sold above their asking prices, with those priced under $1 million selling quickly. The market for homes priced at $2.5 million and higher, however, was noticeably slower. Available houses between those two price points were in short supply, and they needed to be priced just right to attract buyers. Even in a market with a short supply of homes, those that are not cleaned up and priced correctly will not sell quickly. Buyers need to feel they are getting a good deal, and they will delay placing an offer if they feel the price will eventually come down.

Looking Forward: We expect moderate price growth and steady sales in the early part of the fourth quarter, with a typical slowdown as the holiday season approaches. Rising interest rates could put a damper on sales – or cause a rush as buyers move to lock in lower rates.

Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$655,000 $640,750

$611,500 $620,504

$580,000 $600,000

$712,000 $753,500

$800,000 $825,000

$785,000 $801,000

$760,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities:

Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

1.7

1.4

1.1 0.9

1.7 1.6

1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

1.4 1.4

1.6

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

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Average Days on the Market

28 27 25

29 30 30

23 21

19 18 21 21 21

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

97.9%

98.6% 99.1%

97.9% 98.5%

99.6%

100.7%

102.3% 102.2%

100.9% 101.0%

100.2%

99.4%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

35.3% 36.5% 38.0% 35.2% 39.0%

40.6%

49.2% 44.0%

41.9% 38.0% 37.0%

35.7% 33.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

A Closer Look at Contra Costa County

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Alamo 80,757,780$ 76,486,585$ -5% 62 52 -16% 35 24 -31% 1,207,500$ 1,372,000$ 14%

Blackhawk 15,356,000$ 29,497,788$ 92% 11 21 91% 95 54 -43% 1,340,000$ 1,220,000$ -9%

Concord 111,350,019$ 143,408,811$ 29% 336 316 -6% 30 17 -43% 316,400$ 440,000$ 39%

Danville 169,362,821$ 212,455,286$ 25% 177 199 12% 37 21 -43% 850,000$ 985,000$ 16%

Diablo 12,380,000$ 9,398,000$ -24% 7 5 -29% 43 46 7% 1,750,000$ 1,640,000$ -6%

Lafayette 85,721,628$ 109,312,105$ 28% 82 89 9% 37 32 -14% 930,000$ 1,150,000$ 24%

Martinez 49,516,624$ 57,808,430$ 17% 136 122 -10% 32 23 -28% 347,500$ 450,000$ 29%

Moraga 36,114,901$ 52,940,896$ 47% 35 45 29% 31 20 -35% 890,000$ 1,152,500$ 29%

Orinda 94,355,283$ 92,288,868$ -2% 84 77 -8% 39 26 -33% 945,000$ 1,050,000$ 11%

PleasantHill 42,715,471$ 57,457,412$ 35% 86 96 12% 19 16 -16% 497,500$ 625,000$ 26%

San Ramon 152,925,310$ 220,444,681$ 44% 200 244 22% 29 16 -45% 727,500$ 880,000$ 21%

Walnut Creek 125,933,305$ 150,552,805$ 20% 172 170 -1% 27 21 -22% 700,000$ 817,500$ 17%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.

Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Pam HoffmanSenior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay Region510.339.6460phoffman@pacunion.com1900 Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611

East BayQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

East Bay: Q3 ResultsAfter attracting national attention earlier this year because of its drought of available homes, our East Bay region saw welcome relief in July, with a modest uptick in new listings. After a slow August – typical for the last days of summer – we saw inventory rise again in early September. Inventory is the driving factor in East Bay real estate, and the increase in homes for sale, though still below levels seen in previous years, made for an unexpectedly active summer.

Fully 80 percent of sales involved multiple offers, with an average of three to four offers per home, and most homes sold at more than 10 percent above their asking prices. Home prices continued to rise, and midrange-priced properties saw strong sales, while the higher end of the market – $1.5 million and above – was slower.

Looking Forward: Allowing for the typical slowdown that comes with the year-end holiday season, we remain hopeful that listings will continue to expand in the fourth quarter and into 2014, helping to keep the velocity of sales at a high pace. Home prices will continue to increase, though perhaps not as fiercely as in recent quarters. Rising interest rates may keep some buyers on the sidelines, but they also may compel others to move quickly.

Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$572,500

$624,000 $650,000

$609,000 $584,275

$646,000

$709,500 $755,000

$764,000 $760,000 $740,000 $741,500 $725,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.

1.9

1.0 0.9

0.5

1.2

2.1

1.3 1.2

1.3 1.2

1.3 1.1

1.9

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.

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Average Days on the Market

31

27 27

32 31

27

20 21

17 18 20

25

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

100.4%

104.6%

102.0% 101.5% 102.4%

106.7%

110.3% 110.6%

113.5%

110.4% 109.0% 107.3%

109.6%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

35.7%

44.6% 42.6%

44.0%

38.0% 37.3%

47.5% 44.4%

46.6%

41.0% 38.8% 38.1%

35.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.  

A Closer Look at the East Bay

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Albany 18,767,715$ 19,433,380$ 4% 29 28 -3% 22 18 -18% 655,000$ 687,500$ 5%

Berkeley 112,406,616$ 126,172,522$ 12% 154 133 -14% 29 20 -31% 663,500$ 810,000$ 22%

El Cerrito 25,997,645$ 41,834,387$ 61% 50 70 40% 19 21 11% 508,500$ 587,000$ 15%

Kensington 11,681,460$ 20,467,300$ 75% 17 20 18% 26 22 -15% 705,000$ 861,650$ 22%

Oakland* 240,631,926$ 311,784,728$ 30% 395 412 4% 34 23 -32% 570,000$ 719,000$ 26%

Piedmont 64,873,451$ 51,034,325$ -21% 39 34 -13% 24 20 -17% 1,450,000$ 1,512,750$ 4%

East Bay Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Under $500,000 80,456,314$ 44,841,098$ -44% 232 118 -49% 39 23 -41% 360,000$ 400,000$ 11%

Over $500,000 393,902,499$ 525,885,544$ 34% 452 579 28% 26 21 -19% 738,500$ 790,000$ 7%

$500,000 - $1 million 243,821,082$ 317,807,817$ 30% 351 436 24% 26 20 -23% 677,000$ 725,000$ 7%

Over $1 million 150,081,417$ 208,077,727$ 39% 101 143 42% 27 24 -11% 1,320,000$ 1,300,000$ -2%

Source: Terradatum, Oct. 4, 2013. Data is for SFH in the East Bay, defined as Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Montclair / Joaquin Miller $638,380 $694,848 9% $1,004,961 $1,079,694 7%

Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake $569,279 $671,106 18% $1,122,614 $1,035,233 -8%

Rockridge / Claremont $606,511 $711,500 17% $1,170,950 $1,160,622 -1%

Glenview / Oakmore $630,817 $638,200 1% $911,139 $1,034,888 14%

Laurel / Dimond $369,666 $458,074 24% n/a n/a n/a

Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights $559,346 $677,550 21% n/a $848,666 n/a

Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline $634,166 $778,250 23% $1,125,500 $1,431,272 27%

Temescal / Piedmont Ave. $637,333 $678,346 6% $976,000 $837,250 -14%

Oakland Price Changes Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013

Neighborhood Average Price <$800,000 Average Price $800,000 +

Source: EBRD, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.

East Baypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Brent ThomsonSenior Vice President, Marin County415.383.1900brent.thomson@pacunion.com575 Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941

Marin CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

Marin County: Q3 ResultsJuly was a very busy month in our Marin County region, followed by a seasonal lag in August and early September. The number of homes for sale remains constrained, keeping prices high and buyers scrambling, although we saw a slight uptick in the number of available properties in September.

Homes priced $800,000 to $1 million saw aggressive bidding, and those priced above $1.6 million also saw robust sales, but the overall market calmed down somewhat after several quarters of increasingly overheated activity. The furious bidding that we saw in June had settled by September. Still, homes that are priced correctly and in popular neighborhoods – the Mill Valley market remains strong, for example – sold quickly.

Investors remained eager to buy lower-priced properties, although that market tightened considerably in the third quarter. This is due in part to fewer foreclosures and short sales entering the market after months of rising home prices helped many underwater owners regain equity.

Looking Forward: We expect to see very strong sales in October and into early November – particularly if the inventory of available homes continues to expand – before activity slows as the holiday season approaches. Rising interest rates remain a wild card, constraining sales or perhaps prompting buyers to move fast.

Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$790,000 $775,000

$855,000

$775,000 $790,000

$840,000 $849,500

$949,000 $945,000 $990,000

$1,008,650

$946,000

$850,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

3.1

2.3 2.3

1.5

2.6 2.4

1.6 1.8 1.7

1.9 1.9 1.7

2.3

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

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Average Days on the Market

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

78 74 77 85

102

89 79

49 47 42

52 50 54

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

25.3% 22.8% 24.1%

26.5%

31.8% 34.7%

41.0%

35.7% 34.2%

31.2% 30.6% 29.2%

32.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

94.0% 94.8%

92.9% 92.6% 92.1% 92.9%

96.9%

98.9%

100.6% 100.0%

98.6%

97.0%

94.2%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

A Closer Look at Marin County

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Belvedere 31,398,750$ 38,095,000$ 21% 11 7 -36% 54 75 39% 2,500,000$ 2,015,000$ -19%

Corte Madera 19,239,189$ 35,549,885$ 85% 21 32 52% 58 38 -34% 899,000$ 1,025,605$ 14%

Fairfax 13,791,609$ 14,287,300$ 4% 23 19 -17% 77 44 -43% 600,000$ 660,000$ 10%

Greenbrae 19,065,535$ 26,057,000$ 37% 16 20 25% 83 34 -59% 1,145,000$ 1,245,000$ 9%

Kentfield 26,804,300$ 56,055,133$ 109% 14 23 64% 58 56 -3% 1,190,000$ 1,985,000$ 67%

Larkspur 23,868,970$ 34,309,300$ 44% 20 23 15% 90 52 -42% 1,105,000$ 1,400,000$ 27%

Mill Valley 132,837,630$ 127,382,317$ -4% 106 95 -10% 78 45 -42% 972,500$ 1,175,000$ 21%

Novato 105,219,347$ 120,021,600$ 14% 161 157 -2% 87 65 -25% 587,500$ 710,100$ 21%

Ross 20,038,800$ 23,572,000$ 18% 12 9 -25% 82 59 -28% 1,475,000$ 2,000,000$ 36%

San Anselmo 47,662,202$ 56,196,900$ 18% 51 52 2% 73 47 -36% 775,000$ 903,500$ 17%

San Rafael 109,490,995$ 138,345,279$ 26% 138 152 10% 72 48 -33% 720,000$ 832,020$ 16%

Sausalito 25,023,500$ 42,517,333$ 70% 14 20 43% 97 60 -38% 1,285,000$ 1,485,000$ 16%

Tiburon 54,399,150$ 105,671,550$ 94% 32 42 31% 69 53 -23% 1,615,000$ 2,150,000$ 33%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.

Marin County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Linda CarrollBranch Executive, Napa County707.251.8805linda.carroll@pacunion.com944 Main Street | Napa, CA 94559

Napa CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

Napa County: Q3 ResultsThe cyclic nature of sales activity was once again in evidence in Napa County as sales slowed in July and August as buyers took vacations and readied children for the new school year. However, activity began to pick up again in September. The median home price, meanwhile, continued to climb above $500,000 throughout the third quarter, posting a year-over-year gain of more than 20 percent.

Market conditions shifted in favor of buyers for the first time in many months as demand leveled off. In particular, homes priced from $600,000 to $700,000 remained on the market longer than in the second quarter and the number of multiple offers eased. While it was common for sellers to receive 10 to 15 offers earlier in the year, by September this pattern had leveled off, with many sellers entertaining only a handful of bids.

The number of homes for sale grew solidly from July to August, but by September the supply began to shrink again. A year ago, homes lasted on the market for about 90 days, but by the third quarter that time had decreased by a month.

Looking Forward: Now that buyers are focusing on home purchases again after the summer recess, we are optimistic that sales activity will continue its upward trajectory for the remainder of the year.

Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$360,000

$414,000

$370,000 $355,000

$410,000 $430,000 $415,650

$453,000 $477,500

$525,000 $505,000

$525,000

$468,500

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.

4.0

2.7 2.9 3.0

3.6 3.5

3.0

2.6 2.7

3.8

2.8

3.4

3.8

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

4.1

4.6

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.

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Average Days on the Market

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

104 100 103

118 111

92 99

88 86

67

82 77

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.  

19.8% 18.7%

16.0% 18.1%

24.6% 24.3% 27.2%

28.8%

23.0% 22.4% 22.6% 21.8% 20.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

93.4% 92.1%

93.2%

86.5%

91.5%

95.5% 93.8%

97.3% 96.7%

98.4% 96.5% 96.3% 96.1%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

A Closer Look at Napa County

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

American Canyon 19,734,598$ 17,552,850$ -11% 64 46 -28% 96 69 -28% 309,750$ 365,000$ 18%

Angwin 2,390,500$ 2,939,858$ 23% 7 5 -29% 139 62 -55% 299,500$ 540,000$ 80%

Calistoga 13,118,500$ 17,066,719$ 30% 15 20 33% 240 90 -63% 800,000$ 642,500$ -20%

Napa 129,031,873$ 164,777,310$ 28% 267 263 -1% 123 73 -41% 389,900$ 483,300$ 24%

St. Helena 36,558,000$ 36,257,500$ -1% 23 25 9% 99 179 81% 940,000$ 1,185,000$ 26%

Yountville 3,424,000$ 6,008,000$ 75% 4 5 25% 78 66 -15% 717,000$ 795,000$ 11%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.

Napa County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Under $500,000 83,111,434$ 67,594,650$ -19% 263 181 -31% 107 70 -35% 321,000$ 377,000$ 17%

$500,000 - $999,999 59,900,787$ 96,817,368$ 62% 89 144 62% 135 77 -43% 645,000$ 627,500$ -3%

$1 million - $3 million 41,363,150$ 57,118,000$ 38% 26 37 42% 216 132 -39% 1,407,500$ 1,350,000$ -4%

Over $3 million 18,300,000$ 25,252,219$ 38% 4 6 50% 149 158 6% 4,300,000$ 3,850,000$ -10%

Median Price

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.

Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market

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Patrick BarberPresident, San Francisco Region415.929.7100patrick.barber@pacunion.comOne Letterman Drive, Building C, Suite 500 | San Francisco, CA 94129

San FranciscoQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

San Francisco: Q3 ResultsA strong economy, rising employment, and the specter of higher interest rates combined to keep buyers bidding aggressively for single-family homes and condominiums in San Francisco throughout the third quarter. The supply of available homes on the market remained constrained, helping to push prices higher.

Sellers remained in the driver’s seat, and homes sold quickly at all price points. Three homes that came on the market one day in mid-September, for example, were in contract within 24 hours. The overall sales cycle, typically 30 to 60 days, has been cut in half.

Buyers need to have their financing preapproved and their paperwork ready to go in order to remain competitive in such a red-hot market. Persistence and a well-calculated offer are also keys.

Looking Forward: Short of unforeseen economic or political incidents, we find nothing on the horizon that will dampen San Francisco’s real estate market. Construction of single-family homes and housing developments remains vigorous across the city, strongly suggesting robust activity throughout the fourth quarter and well into 2014. Even with the possibility of rising interest rates, San Francisco remains a premium market for buyers, including investors. Multiple offers will remain the rule, and the bidding will continue to move home prices higher.

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Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price

Condominiums – Median Sales Price

$725,000

$830,000 $810,000

$836,250

$746,500 $800,500

$920,000

$1,000,000 $1,026,000

$950,000 $875,000

$950,000 $945,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.

$780,000 $820,000

$812,000 $752,500

$772,500 $818,000

$855,000 $900,000

$870,500 $825,000

$875,000 $828,500

$865,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.

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Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory

2.4

1.5

1.2 1.1

1.7

2.3

1.5 1.6

1.5 1.4

1.3 1.5

2.1

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market

46 45 42

58

48

40 39 35

31 35 33

38

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.  

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory

2.1

1.7

1.4

1.1

2.1 2.1

1.5 1.5

1.2

1.6

1.1 1.3

2.0

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.

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Condominiums – Average Days on the Market

58 63

44

57 62

45

37

45

38 37 39 36

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.  

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

32.0%

36.0% 33.9% 31.9% 34.3%

36.8% 40.4% 40.4% 39.3% 39.8%

42.9%

36.8% 36.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.  

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

32.5%

40.1% 36.6%

34.0% 32.3%

34.4%

40.7% 37.7%

41.6% 39.0% 37.6% 37.7%

32.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.  

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Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

105.1% 100.9% 103.0%

91.0%

102.5% 103.7% 105.2% 107.6% 107.6% 109.4% 105.4% 104.5%

108.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

100.7%

103.1%

100.6%

99.2% 99.7%

102.2%

104.2% 104.8%

104.2%

106.9% 106.3%

105.0% 104.0%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.

Delving into San Francisco’s Districts

San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods.

District 1: Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.

District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights.

District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights,

Oceanview.

District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown

Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood,

Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park.

District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights,

Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks.

District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition.

District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights.

District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,

Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.

District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach,

South of Market, Yerba Buena.

District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood,

Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.

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Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

District 1 69,353,600$ 81,578,225$ 18% 49 56 14% 39 34 -13% 1,165,000$ 1,210,000$ 4%

District 2 71,500,151$ 132,695,176$ 86% 90 143 59% 39 29 -26% 749,250$ 856,000$ 14%

District 3 30,464,775$ 37,438,600$ 23% 53 51 -4% 44 30 -32% 518,000$ 670,000$ 29%

District 4 78,767,750$ 93,606,200$ 19% 74 75 1% 39 37 -5% 910,000$ 1,150,000$ 26%

District 5 160,363,759$ 165,617,010$ 3% 97 93 -4% 37 27 -27% 1,475,000$ 1,550,000$ 5%

District 6 13,518,833$ 19,085,000$ 41% 8 11 38% 47 46 -2% 1,375,000$ 1,625,000$ 18%

District 7 82,004,249$ 169,130,200$ 106% 15 31 107% 77 38 -51% 3,999,999$ 4,900,000$ 23%

District 8 11,213,675$ 12,725,000$ 13% 6 4 -33% 62 98 58% 1,657,500$ 2,500,000$ 51%

District 9 60,526,733$ 73,358,591$ 21% 70 69 -1% 44 33 -25% 820,250$ 940,000$ 15%

District 10 84,677,718$ 84,511,456$ 0% 175 139 -21% 64 38 -41% 490,000$ 620,000$ 27%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

District 1 28,257,500$ 36,014,999$ 27% 34 39 15% 56 31 -45% 797,000$ 900,000$ 13%

District 2 10,008,000$ 8,360,750$ -16% 13 12 -8% 62 32 -48% 765,000$ 822,500$ 8%

District 3 3,766,400$ 2,871,000$ -24% 12 6 -50% 101 37 -63% 305,950$ 458,000$ 50%

District 4 4,549,000$ 8,380,301$ 84% 9 14 56% 76 31 -59% 410,000$ 602,500$ 47%

District 5 87,010,001$ 121,664,923$ 40% 87 108 24% 40 30 -25% 950,000$ 1,102,500$ 16%

District 6 57,150,686$ 60,414,000$ 6% 84 67 -20% 108 30 -72% 736,000$ 850,000$ 15%

District 7 63,814,706$ 116,232,969$ 82% 64 85 33% 47 32 -32% 900,000$ 1,228,000$ 36%

District 8 106,093,010$ 99,430,588$ -6% 129 105 -19% 66 43 -35% 640,000$ 743,000$ 16%

District 9 190,878,079$ 205,386,474$ 8% 226 229 1% 50 37 -26% 717,500$ 805,000$ 12%

District 10 7,853,400$ 5,645,000$ -28% 23 15 -35% 53 99 87% 339,000$ 360,000$ 6%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Under $1 million 278,341,351$ 283,880,070$ 2% 445 388 -13% 51 35 -31% 628,000$ 750,000$ 19%

$1 million - $3 million 263,441,060$ 373,007,388$ 42% 169 245 45% 37 30 -19% 1,465,000$ 1,360,000$ -7%

Over $3 million 120,608,832$ 212,858,000$ 76% 23 39 70% 61 46 -25% 3,999,999$ 4,400,000$ 10%

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Under $1 million 334,817,424$ 305,624,457$ -9% 531 441 -17% 65 38 -42% 655,000$ 705,000$ 8%

$1 million - $2 million 173,796,858$ 282,693,547$ 63% 132 212 61% 44 32 -27% 1,244,375$ 1,290,000$ 4%

Over $2 million 50,766,500$ 76,083,000$ 50% 18 27 50% 58 36 -38% 2,512,500$ 2,388,000$ -5%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Rick LawsSenior Vice President, Sonoma County707.547.3800rick.laws@pacunion.com3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403

Sonoma CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

Sonoma County: Q3 ResultsSales trends set at the beginning of 2013 continued through the third quarter in Sonoma County: high demand from buyers, a tight supply of homes for sale, and upward pressure on prices.

The market for homes priced from $400,000 to $900,000 was strong, and we saw a surprisingly large jump in sales for high-priced properties – up to $2 million. There was a big drop, however, in the sub-$400,000 market, which in recent years had been the province of foreclosures and short sales. Sales at that price point have slowed dramatically in recent months as the foreclosure and short-sale inventory dried up and homeowners regained equity and were able to hold onto their properties – or trade up at higher price points.

As the market slowly settled from the frenzy of previous quarters, sellers continued to receive multiple offers for their properties, though not as many as before. The inventory of available homes rose modestly in the third quarter.

Looking Forward: After exhausting the supply of lower-priced properties, sales activity will gradually work its way up the market. We anticipate a strong finish for the year, with the recent uptick in interest rates acting as an incentive for both buyers and sellers to take advantage of a market that still offers solid bargains for buyers and quick, uncomplicated sales for sellers.

Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$355,000 $367,000

$374,250 $389,500

$365,000 $380,000 $395,500

$435,000 $425,000 $437,000

$478,375

$439,475 $451,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

2.7

2.0 2.1 2.1

2.6 2.6

2.0 1.8 1.7

2.0 1.9 1.9

2.3

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

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Average Days on the Market

90 93 101 99 101 99

93

79

68 62

71 68 67

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

95.9%

94.5% 94.0% 94.9%

95.9%

93.6%

96.1% 95.3%

99.3%

97.7% 98.0%

97.4%

96.3%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

25.2% 27.2%

23.4% 23.1%

28.6% 31.3%

34.4% 35.0%

34.5%

30.6% 31.9%

29.1% 31.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.  

A Closer Look at Sonoma County

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Healdsburg 38,301,270$ 63,234,715$ 65% 53 59 11% 106 81 -24% 500,000$ 770,000$ 54%

Petaluma 86,119,946$ 103,588,595$ 20% 188 183 -3% 88 61 -31% 399,500$ 490,000$ 23%

Rohnert Park 20,365,070$ 28,014,750$ 38% 67 69 3% 93 49 -47% 293,550$ 406,000$ 38%

Santa Rosa 242,912,965$ 245,102,999$ 1% 610 514 -16% 90 58 -36% 338,150$ 409,750$ 21%

Sebastopol 41,694,154$ 66,608,757$ 60% 63 91 44% 103 78 -24% 540,000$ 660,000$ 22%

Windsor 34,977,424$ 42,140,078$ 20% 91 85 -7% 87 75 -14% 362,500$ 455,000$ 26%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Under $1 million 543,118,901$ 614,436,372$ 13% 1387 1290 -7% 93 64 -31% 355,000$ 439,000$ 24%

$1 million and over 110,299,499$ 178,983,304$ 62% 64 100 56% 101 137 36% 1,400,000$ 1,347,500$ -4%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Jill SilvasBranch Executive, Sonoma Valley707.939.9500jill.silvas@pacunion.com135 West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476

Sonoma ValleyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

Sonoma Valley: Q3 ResultsSales activity in July and August was off-the-charts busy in our Sonoma Valley region. Even allowing for a slight slowdown in September, the third quarter proved that buyers are not afraid to wade into a market of rising prices and competitive bidding to find the right primary or second home.

The number of homes for sale rose modestly in the quarter, although it remained down 22 percent from a year earlier and almost 50 percent from two years ago. Prices were up incrementally from the previous quarter but solidly above year-ago levels. The strongest market was for homes priced under $1 million.

Multiple offers remained the norm in the third quarter, although most homes generated two or three offers rather than the eight to 10 offers we saw in previous quarters. Homes that weren’t priced accurately received little interest from buyers.

Looking Forward: Demand for homes in Sonoma Valley remains strong. With the supply still far below normal levels, we expect the market to remain healthy throughout the end of the year and into the next. Rising interest rates remain a worry, although the possibility of significantly higher rates in 2014 could spark buyers to lock in mortgage rates that are still far below historical levels.

Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refer to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$382,875

$457,500 $459,000 $463,750

$397,000

$494,550

$401,000

$605,000

$505,000 $560,000

$529,025 $496,278

$586,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

2.8 2.9

2.5 2.5

3.9

3.0 2.9 3.0

2.2 2.0 1.9

2.3

3.8

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

4.1

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

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Average Days on the Market

84

118 122

101

141

90

107

61 61 53

68 76

94

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

91.6% 91.2% 91.2%

97.5%

90.3% 89.9%

93.9%

97.5% 98.3%

94.7%

98.7%

95.2%

92.4%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (inc. adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

17.5%

23.1%

17.0%

20.0% 20.4%

26.5% 26.8%

32.0%

29.6% 32.1%

29.4%

18.3%

28.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.  

A Closer Look at Sonoma Valley

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Glen Ellen 11,193,000$ 11,316,000$ 1% 13 8 -38% 108 139 29% 611,000$ 1,367,500$ 124%

Kenwood 8,443,750$ 7,230,000$ -14% 11 7 -36% 64 94 47% 765,000$ 900,000$ 18%

Sonoma 79,708,985$ 112,965,830$ 42% 144 148 3% 94 72 -23% 417,500$ 507,500$ 22%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.

Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Sally GardnerBranch Executive, Tahoe/TruckeeTahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098sally.gardner@pacunion.com

Tahoe/TruckeeQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2013

Tahoe/Truckee: Q3 ResultsThe third quarter is typically the busiest time of the year in the Tahoe/Truckee region, as buyers move to close deals before the start of the ski season. This year was no different. Sales have been particularly robust in 2013, reaching levels we haven’t seen in five to seven years.

Most sales in the Tahoe/Truckee region are second homes for Bay Area buyers, and the region’s booming economy is in evidence here. With interest rates still somewhat low, buyers snapped up attractive, accurately priced single-family homes and condominiums across the region. Prices rose solidly during the quarter, even as inventory levels expanded. Sales were most active in the Truckee, Tahoe Donner, and North Shore communities. We saw the most activity among homes priced under $800,000 and also in the $3 million-to-$6 million range.

Looking Forward: We expect the region’s current busy market to continue unabated. Buyers have been looking at homes all summer and will continue to close deals through the fourth quarter and well into 2014. Shoppers hoping to win a bidding war are advised to have their mortgage preapproved – or pay cash if possible – and consider removing contingencies. Sellers are advised that competitively priced properties are more likely to receive multiple offers and spend less time sitting on the market

Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes and condominiums in these communities.

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Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price

Condominiums – Median Sales Price

$463,750 $445,000 $446,000

$511,000

$457,500 $505,000

$534,000 $515,000

$479,000 $528,000

$550,000 $559,000 $550,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

$218,500

$286,500 $288,000 $320,000

$288,000 $306,000

$330,000

$300,000 $296,000

$420,000

$289,000 $300,000

$333,750

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

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Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory

6.9

3.8

4.6 4.6

6.1 6.4

3.1

4.7

6.4 5.9 5.8

4.7 4.7

0.1

1.1

2.1

3.1

4.1

5.1

6.1

7.1

8.1

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market

119 114

141 146 128

193

93 86 85 66

89 92 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory

7.4 5.3

6.7 5.6

9.1

12.4

8.7

19.5

5.6

9.3 7.9

7.0 5.5

0.1

5.1

10.1

15.1

20.1

25.1

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

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Condominiums – Average Days on the Market

96

148 159 148 148

178 189

305

147

85

197

140 165

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

11.5% 11.2%

13.6%

6.6% 8.6%

10.5%

7.1%

11.1% 10.5%

12.1%

14.0% 15.3%

14.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

14.1% 15.6%

11.4% 12.8%

18.8% 19.2% 20.2%

15.0% 14.9% 14.2% 15.2%

16.8%

14.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

86.7%

88.5% 89.2%

84.5%

91.2%

86.1%

90.9%

93.7% 93.9% 95.1% 95.0%

92.2%

94.5%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

89.4% 90.0%

93.0%

88.5%

87.2%

89.8% 89.0%

91.3% 91.6% 92.7%

91.8% 92.7%

94.6%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

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A Closer Look at Tahoe/Truckee

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Alpine Meadows 4,817,000$ 2,637,500$ -45% 8 5 -38% 110 76 -31% 572,500$ 450,000$ -21%

Donner Lake 4,605,000$ 4,494,000$ -2% 8 8 0% 171 32 -81% 450,000$ 492,500$ 9%

Donner Summit 1,991,000$ 6,755,500$ 239% 5 17 240% 53 56 6% 365,000$ 372,500$ 2%

Martis Valley 16,503,281$ 38,544,950$ 134% 23 32 39% 87 133 53% 412,000$ 547,500$ 33%

North Lake Tahoe 51,405,743$ 64,513,485$ 25% 73 81 11% 101 83 -18% 474,900$ 532,900$ 12%

Northstar 8,276,771$ 7,635,275$ -8% 8 8 0% 410 128 -69% 750,000$ 750,000$ 0%

Squaw Valley 4,806,500$ 11,634,500$ 142% 5 4 -20% 102 392 284% 841,500$ 1,257,750$ 49%

Tahoe City 25,081,563$ 27,820,450$ 11% 27 28 4% 141 110 -22% 568,000$ 737,000$ 30%

Tahoe Donner 39,760,028$ 41,443,200$ 4% 75 68 -9% 74 59 -20% 499,000$ 555,000$ 11%

Truckee 29,560,381$ 50,434,950$ 71% 54 57 6% 77 99 29% 353,000$ 500,000$ 42%

West Shore 44,085,737$ 59,774,850$ 36% 48 50 4% 153 80 -48% 545,000$ 652,500$ 20%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change Q3 '12 Q3 '13 % change

Alpine Meadows 578,000$ 705,000$ 22% 2 2 0% 26 98 277% 289,000$ 352,500$ 22%

Donner Lake 75,000$ 347,803$ 364% 1 4 300% 424 22 -95% 75,000$ 57,402$ -23%

Donner Summit 217,000$ 210,000$ -3% 2 1 -50% 38 203 434% 108,500$ 210,000$ 94%

North Lake Tahoe 7,496,500$ 9,499,000$ 27% 26 25 -4% 114 176 54% 204,500$ 292,500$ 43%

NorthStar 8,159,150$ 5,174,500$ -37% 14 12 -14% 218 233 7% 296,500$ 322,500$ 9%

Squaw Valley 1,666,900$ 4,501,037$ 170% 6 11 83% 75 371 395% 260,000$ 422,500$ 63%

Tahoe City 2,661,500$ 6,167,000$ 132% 8 16 100% 238 159 -33% 259,500$ 284,000$ 9%

Tahoe Donner 3,554,000$ 2,703,500$ -24% 15 10 -33% 65 26 -60% 220,000$ 228,000$ 4%

Truckee 2,965,975$ 8,170,525$ 175% 7 13 86% 334 99 -70% 300,000$ 579,000$ 93%

West Shore 1,150,000$ 1,350,000$ 17% 3 2 -33% 437 95 -78% 350,000$ 675,000$ 93%

Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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