Q3.16 Financial Results - National Bank of Greece › english › the-group ›...

Q3.16 Financial Results

November 23, 2016

1 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results

No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be

accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in

this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty.

Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been

obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any

such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are

subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information

contained herein.

In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge

and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying

methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you

should not place undue reliance on them.

Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are

subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties

include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are

cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be

construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to

pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are

advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect

the Group’s view only as of the date hereof.

Legal

Important Notice – Forward Looking Information

Table of Contents

1 Financial Highlights

2 Liquidity

3 Profitability

4 Asset quality

5 Capital

6 Macro

7 Appendix

Financial Highlights

1


€ m 9M16 9M15 yoy 3Q16 2Q16 qoq

NII 1 446 1 431 +1% 485 482 +1%

Fees & Commissions1 222 215 +3% 73 76 -4%

Pillar-2 costs (51) (143) -64% (6) (15) -61%

Insurance income 52 83 -37% 12 23 -50%

Trading & other income (61) (208) -71% (13) (43) -70%

Income 1 608 1 379 +17% 551 524 +5%

Operating Expenses (947) (966) -2% (318) (319) 0%

Core PPI 723 620 +17% 245 247 -1%

PPI 662 412 +61% 232 205 +14%

Provisions (547) (2 936) -81% (182) (208) -12%

Operating Profit 114 (2 524) n/m 51 (3) n/m

Other impairments (66) (223) -71% (20) (12) 74%

PBT 48 (2 746) n/m 31 (15) n/m

Taxes (23) 1 053 n/m (8) (9) -12%

PAT (cont. ops) 26 (1 694) n/m 23 (23) n/m

PAT (discount. ops) (2,957) (444) >100% - (3.028) n/m

Minorities (28) (27) +3% (7) (10) -31%

Other one-offs - (9) -100% - - n/m

Attributable PAT2 (2,959) (2 174) +36% 16 (3.062) n/m

P&L Highlights

1. Excludes Pillar-2 costs

2. Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income related to Finansbank. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has

no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16

9M16 Group PAT from continuing operations in the black at € 26m

Highlights

Group P&L

Group 9M16 PAT from continuing operations reaches €26m vs

losses of €1.7b in 9M15. This result reflects improving trends in the

domestic as well as the SEE businesses

• 9M16 Group core income reaches €1.67b, up by 5% yoy, driven by

domestic funding cost improvements deriving from the elimination of

Pillar 2 and 3 exposure, reduction of ELA funding and the repricing of

time deposits; Q3.16 Group core income stood at €563m (flat qoq)

reflecting higher NII (+1% qoq) and fees (+10% qoq) as well as lower

income from insurance (-€12m qoq, or -50% qoq) due to the hit from

lower interest rates on reserves

• 9M16 Group OpEx, down by 2% yoy, was driven by personnel (-1%

yoy) and G&A (-5% yoy); imminent VRS will accelerate cost

containment; Q3 domestic costs at €252m, flat qoq

• Q3 Group credit risk charges stood at 191bps, coming in 25bps lower

qoq. Domestic and Group CoR at 198bps and 189bps respectively in

9M16

• SEE business PAT contribution reaches €79m in 9M16, up by 92% yoy


Favorable NPE reduction trend is sustained, liquidity profile improves further

Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group

3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15

Liquidity

L/D ratio 89% 91% 92% 91% 96%

ELA exposure (€ bn) 5.1 6.1 11.0 11.5 15.6

o/w Pillar exposure

(nominal)2 0 2.4 7.1 11.8 18.0

Profitability

NIM (bps) 293 285 280 280 279

Cost / Core income 57% 56% 57% 64% 64%

Asset quality

NPE ratio 44.2% 45.8% 47.3% 46.8% 45.1%

NPE coverage ratio 56.3% 54.3% 53.0% 52.8% 52.2%

Cost of Risk (bps) 191 216 162 746 251

Capital

CET1 phased-in 16.9%1 16.8%3 17.2%4 17.5%4 9.6%

CET1 ratio CRD4 FL 16.3%1 16.2%3 16.7%4 16.8%4 8.8%

RWAs (€ bn) 40.21 40.53 40.44 40.34 60.7

1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment,

2. Pillar II zero as of July 2016

3. Pro-forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments and CoCos repayment

4. Pro forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments, Finansbank sale and CoCos repayment

Highlights

Further ELA reduction to just €4.5b currently

• ELA has been slashed by an impressive €13b since the imposition of capital controls,

reaching €4.5b in November

• Full P&L impact of Pillar II and III exposure elimination (July 2016) on profitability to apply

from 4Q16 onwards; total annualized fee saving of €200m vs FY.15 fee charge

• L:D ratio drops further to 89% in Greece reflecting favorable deposit trends in Q3 (+€0.3b)

as well as deleveraging of the balance sheet

Domestic NPE stock reduction continues unabated in Q3, -€1.0b qoq

• The pace of NPE reduction continues (-€1.0bn qoq), resulting in an impressive ytd

reduction of €1.9b, reflecting favorable curing trends and write offs

• FNPEs less than 30dpd at €3.3b, are a large potential pool for future curing

• 90dpd retail formation remained negative for yet another quarter (-€92m) reflecting

improving gross formation as the pace of restructurings slowed in Q3

• On the corporate side, formation reached €280m, reflecting a handful of large corporate

exposure defaults

• Domestic credit charges CoR at 198bps in 9M16; NPE and NPL coverage at an industry

leading 57% and 75% respectively

CET 1 pro forma1 ratio at 16.9%

• CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 16.3%1, excluding CoCos

• Group RWAs at 40.2b1 of which €34.4b in Greece (phased in)

• Capital adequacy to be enhanced materially by implementation of the RP

Liquidity

2


Eurosystem funding (€ b)

1. Latest available data

2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds

ELA has been reduced by €13b since June 2015 to just €4.5b currently

Liquidity

Peer group analysis1: liquidity position (Group)

14.2

9.8 10.0 10.1

12.5 11.8

8.97.5 6.8

13.9

17.615.6 11.5

11.0

6.1

5.14.5

14.2

23.6

27.6

25.6

24.0

22.8

14.9

12.6

11.3

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Nov '16

4.5

12.5

15.4

13.1

NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

6% 24% 22%ELA /

Assets2

L:D ratio 89% 117%144%

18%

123%

ELA

exposure

(€ b)

ELA

ECB

€4.8b in

outstanding

interbank

repos


Eurosystem collateral cash values (€ bn) | Nov. 2016

Pillar II and III exposure fully repaid; full P&L impact to be reflected in Q4

Liquidity

ELA outstanding: Pillar II & Pillar III fully repaid

9.9

6.4

3.8

1.8

5.7

5.1

7.2

4.3

15.6

11.511.0

6.1

5.14.5

10.1

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Nov '16 Undrawn

liquidity

Other ELA

collateral

(cash value)

Pillar-2 & 3

bonds

(cash value)

EFSF / ESM

4.9

Other

1.9 0.8

11.4

2.4

14.6

Cov. bonds

Credit claims

Other

ECB:

€ 6.8b

Cash value of eligible collateral:

€ 21.4b

No Pillar

exposure


-2.2

-4.8

-3.6

0.30.8

-0.9

0.00.3

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Deposit evolution by geography (€ b)

35.8 36.6 35.7 35.7 36.0

6.1 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.6

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Domestic deposits increase by €0.3b in Q3, driven by private flows

Liquidity

Greek deposit flows per quarter (€ b)

YoY

+0.4%

+8.9%

Group

SEE &

Other

Greece

41.9 43.0 42.0 42.2 42.6 +1.6%

+2.2% -2.5% 0%

-€10.6 b +€0.5 b

+0.8%


44.9 44.7 44.3 44.0 43.3

7.6 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

94%

90%91% 91%

89%

96%

91%92%

104%

97%96%

92%

91%

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

L:D ratio evolution

1: system estimate excludes NBG’s contribution

L:D ratio drops below 90%, well below the system1 at c.135%, providing room to

lever up

Gross loan evolution by geography (€ b)

Liquidity

Group

Greece

SEE &

Other

SEE &

other

Greece

52.5 52.0 51.5 51.1 50.4

YoY

-3.6%

-6.0%

-3.9%Group

-0.5% -0.9% -0.7% -1.6%

Peers’ average domestic

L:D ratio: 135%

Write-offs:

€ 0.2b qoq

€ 0.5b yoy

Profitability

3


185 247 255 255

-1,071

-198 -231 -201

9M15 9M16 1 2Q16 3Q16

Domestic Core PPI margin (bps)

Domestic Core PPI bridge (€ m)Group Core PPI decomposition by region (€ m)

9M16 domestic Core PPI of €0.60b, up by 22% yoy; Q3 core operating margin at

54bps vs 49bps in 9M16

Profitability

139 153189 207 205

494

601

4137

4240 40

126

122

180 190

231247 245

620

723

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 9M15 9M16

GRE SEE & Other

207 +3

-14

+9

0205

2Q16 ΔNII Δfees &

Insurance

Δ Pillar II costs ΔOpEx 3Q16

o/w: € -12m

from Insurance

Core PPI

margin

CoR

+21.6%

+16.6%

YoY

49 24 54Core operating

margin


SEE & Other

Greece

389 392 396 400 403

267 269 268 274 284

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

NII (€m) NIM (bps)

Domestic NII picks up qoq on the back of improving funding costs, offsetting

deleveraging impact

Profitability

Domestic NII quarterly evolution (€ m)

Domestic NII breakdown

400

-6

+2 +18

-4 -7

403

2Q16 Δloans Δdepos ΔEurosystem

& wholesale

ΔSecurities Subs & other 3Q16

83 82 83 83 82

356 355 361 355 345

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

NII (€m) NIM (bps)

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Loans 434 411 395 384 378

Deposits -80 -69 -55 -46 -44

Bonds 85 86 85 83 79

Eurosystem & wholesale -58 -49 -40 -36 -18

Subs & other 10 13 11 14 7

Total 389 392 396 400 403

Excludes +€9m

funding cost

savings qoq

from reduced

Pillar II

exposure

accounted for

in fees

Negatively

affected by

€7m due to

repayment of

the sub-debt

extended to

Finansbank


16.4 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.7

6.57.4 6.6 6.8 7.2

13.011.8 11.5 11.1 11.1

35.8 36.635.7 35.7 36.0

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Time

Sight &

other

Savings

+0.9% qoq

Greek deposit yields (bps)

25 24 2420 20

185

163

132

113

103

90

77

62

5147

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Time deposit yields drop by another 10bps qoq, total deposit cost at 47bps

Profitability

Greek deposits evolution (€ b)

Time

Total

New production

yield

at 69 bps

64% 68% 68% 69% 69% Core deposits/total

Mkt share 36%

Core


Greek lending yields (bps)

262 264 261 258 256

934956 953 947 947

673658

672650 648

421 420 421 417 414

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Asset yields stabilize while deleveraging continues in Q3

Profitability

Greek loan evolution (€ b)

17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.1

5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1

4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9

17.6 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.2

44.9 44.7 44.3 44.0 43.3

408 408 409 404 402

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Corporate

SBL

Consumer

Mortgages

Consumer

SBLs

Corporate

Mortgages

Total lending yield (bps)

-1.6% qoq

33.8 33.0 32.5 32.4 31.9 Net loans

Gross loans


2 4 4 51

56 5 5

7

20

2422 23

23

13

1517

1716

3

2 33

2

1926

1622

10

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Insurance

Fund management

Banking fees

Corporate lending

Retail lending

Custody, brokerage

inv. Banking

4250 50 52 50

21

29

1823

12

23

24

23

24

23

86

103

91

99

85

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Greece1

SEE &

Other

Insurance

Group fees & insurance income (€ m)

1. Excl. Pillar fee charges

Excluding Insurance, the drop in domestic fees is due to pressure on capital market

related fees

Profitability

Domestic fees1 & insurance decomposition (€ m)

-53 -54 -30 -15 -6 Pillar 2 cost

0.42% 0.50% 0.44% 0.47% 0.41% Fees1/Assets

50

42

62 76 66 74 60

-5%

-54%

qoq

Total

Total1

5250

-19%

50

Technical result affected

by lower interest rates


65%

63%

56%55% 55%

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Domestic OpEx evolution (€ m)

Group OpEx by category (€ m)

Domestic 9M16 costs down by 3% yoy

Profitability

Headcount evolution (‘000)

Domestic cost-to-core income evolution

Greece Group

9M16 9M15 yoy 9M16 9M15 yoy

Personnel 490 497 -1.4% 594 598 -0.7%

G&As 185 198 -6.9% 265 279 -4.9%

Depreciation 72 73 -0.3% 88 90 -2.0%

Total 747 768 -2.7% 947 966 -2.0%

163 168 161 163 166

96 9482 88 86

259 262243 251 252

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

15.012.2 12.0 12.3

10.1

7.9 7.8 7.7

25.1

20.1 19.8 20.1

FY09 1 FY14 FY15 3Q16

G&A &

other

Staff

SEE &

Other

Greece

o/w:

Astir: 0.5k

Insurance: 0.8k


Operating profit evolution (€ m)

SEE contributes €79m in Group 9m PAT, +92% yoy

Profitability

SEE headline figures

P&L items (€ m) 3Q16 2Q16 qoq 9M16 9M15 yoy

NII 82 83 -1.2% 247 250 -1.2%

Core income 106 107 -1.2% 321 324 -0.8%

OpEx (67) (67) -1.3% (200) (198) 0.6%

PPI 52 50 +3.6% 157 132 19.2%

Provisions (20) (20) -1.5% (64) (79) -18.7%

Operating profit 32 30 +5.0% 93 53 75.3%

Net profit after min. 27 25 +7.2% 79 41 92.2%

42 40

55

50 52

-23

-68

-24-20 -20

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Pre-provision income Provisions

18

-28

31 30 32

Operating

profit

Selective ratios 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15

Liquidity

L/D ratio 91% 92% 96% 97% 104%

Profitability

NIM (bps) 345 355 361 355 356

Cost / Core income 63% 63% 61% 66% 62%

Asset quality

90dpd ratio 26.3% 26.5% 27.0% 26.8% 28.3%

90dpd coverage ratio 60.1% 59.1% 58.3% 57.4% 56.3%

Cost of Risk (bps) 136 133 155 438 147

Asset quality

4


Remaining NPE reduction to 2019 at €6.5b (€ b)

NPE operational targets are feasible Parent NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) (€ b)

21.5-1.9

-6.5 13.1

FY15 Already achieved Remaining FY19

On track to deliver NPE/NPL operational targets

Asset quality

• Operational targets submitted to the SSM call for a reduction of

NPLs and NPEs by €7.4b and €8.5b corresponding to a reduction of

c.50% and 40% respectively

• Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NBG will have reduced its

NPL and NPE ratios by ca.15ppts, with NPE coverage around the

50% mark

• NBG has already reduced NPEs by €1.9b ytd relative to a targeted

reduction throughout the forecast period of €8.5b

15.2 15.3 15.0 14.9

7.7

6.4 0.0 6.2-0.9 5.6

-1.04.7

-6.55.4

21.5 21.520.6

19.6

13.1

FY15 1 1Q16 2 2Q16 3 3Q16 4 FY19

-8.5

NPLs

NPEs

NPE reduction target

Target: -8.5


15.2 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.3

6.1 6.7 6.6 5.9 4.8

21.3 22.0 22.0 21.120.1

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

FNPEs & other

impaired

90dpd

Domestic NPE stock evolution (€ b)

Domestic NPE stock movement (€ b)Domestic NPE stock per category – 3Q16 (€ b)

NPE reduction is sustained in Q3, as NPEs drop by €1b reflecting favorable

collection trends, curing and write-offs; ytd NPE stock reduces by a solid €2b

Asset quality

47.4% 49.2% 49.6% 47.9% 46.4%NPE ratio

5.4

2.9 2.4

4.6

1.6

0.50.3

2.4

7.0

3.32.7

6.9

Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate

FNPE & other

impaired

90dpd

15.3

20.1

22.0

-0.6-0.3

21.1

-0.7-0.2

20.1

NPEs

1Q16

Net NPE

formation

write-offs NPEs

2Q16

Net NPE

formation

write-offs NPEs

3Q16


Domestic NPE ratios and coverage per segment

Domestic 90dpd ratios per segment

1. Bank level

€3.3b of FNPEs less than 30dpd constitute prime candidates for curing

Asset quality

Domestic forborne stock breakdown (€ bn)

Domestic 90dpd – NPE bridge (€ bn)

Cash

coverage

Cash

coverage

13% 53% 48% 26% 26%LLAs/

Gross loans

15.3

3.3 0.7 0.8 20.1

90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs

42%

95%76%

98% 75% 73%

31%

55%

63%

27%

35% 34%

Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group

32%

82%67%

65% 57% 56%

41%

64%71%

40%46% 44%

Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group

FNPE<30 dpd

3.3

FNPE 31-90dpd

0.7

FNPE >90dpd

3.1

FPE 2.8

9.9

Collateral

coverage178% 8% 51% 53% 54%

SEE & other:

90dpd ratio: 26%

Coverage: 60%

SEE & other:

NPE ratio: 31%

Coverage: 51%


Domestic 90dpd restructuring flows (€ m)

Peer Group analysis3: asset quality (Group) Domestic 90dpd formation and provisions

1. CoR (bps) adjusted for AQR charges, calculated on net loans

2. Texas Ratio: (NPLs-Provisions)/TBV

3. Peer comparison is based on latest available data

Domestic CoR drops by 30bps qoq to 201bps over net loans; Group CoR at 191bps

Asset quality

406

86126

2

188232

671

134188 162

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

90dpd flows (€ m) Provisions (€ m)

271 329 164 231 201CoR1

(bps)

Includes

AQR

510

812

609

381 358

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

73%68% 69%

66%

34%

39%38%

35%


0.7x 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x

Coverage

ratio

90dpd

ratio

Texas

ratio2

6.9 7.5 8.5 5.4 TBV (€ b)

Unprovided

NPLs (€ b)4.4 8.2 7.3 6.1


Mortgages (€ m)

Asset quality

Domestic retail formation remains negative, new corporate NPLs already within the

NPE perimeter

Consumer (€ m) Total domestic 90dpd formation (€ m)

SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)

122

-133 -117

-70

-32

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

76

-22 -26-19

-8

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

35

-3

10

-13

-523Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

173

246 260

106

280

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

406

86

126

2

188

3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16


Corporate Balance (€bn)of which

(denounced)#Clients FTEs

Large Corporates 1.7 0.5 400 35

SMEs 2.6 1.4 4,040 96

SBL(Legal Entities) 1.4 0.8 12,671 96

Legal, Control & Operational 55

Total 5.7 2.7 17,111 282

Dedicated and independent internal units for retail collections and corporate NPL

management

Corporate NPL Management

Special Assets Unit (“SAU”) is a centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility for the

management of corporate NPLs with:

− Vertically integrated management to ensure single point accountability and

efficient decision making

− Dedicated SAU RMs and separate Credit Committees

− Clear prioritisation strategy based on ageing, size, collateralisation levels and

legal status

− Internally developed tools to prioritise alternative strategies and assess debtors’

viability

− Short-term and longer-term target setting and RM productivity monitored

monthly

− Certain corporate exposures are managed by the business unit

Overview of Portfolio (30.09.2016)

Retail Collections Unit

Retail Collections Unit (“RCU”) is an independent unit focused on management of

retail NPLs and collections

− Centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility

− Strategy differentiated by customer segmentation: collecting in early buckets,

restructuring subsequently, legal actions according to selection criteria, and

settlements for >360dpd

− New restructuring products designed to ensure solution sustainability based on

PTI and on client’s disposable income after subtracting reasonable living

expenses

− Tight performance monitoring of internal collection center and external

agents and lawyers through comprehensive KPIs

− Champion/challenger tactics frequently employed to test new segment strategies

based on cohort attributes (profession, income, dpd, collateral)

Retail Balance (€bn) Treatment Clients (‘000) FTE

Mortgages 7.0 Collections 107 225

Consumer 3.3 Restructuring 49 159

Micro-SBL 1.2 Legal/ 223 338

Settlements

Total 11.6 379 721

Branches (execution) 867

Various support functions 125

c. 2,000 FTEs deployed in

collections and NPL

management

Source: NBG

Notes: all NBG figures refer to domestic Greek business

(1) SME: small & medium enterprises

(2) SBL: small business loans

(1)

(2)

Asset quality

Capital

5


16.8% 16.9%

16.3%

2Q16 3Q16 CRD 4 fully loaded

Peer Group analysis2: CET1 Capital ratios3

Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation (€ bn)CET 1 ratio

7.1 6.8

2.0

-0.1

0.2

-0.3

2.0

9.1 8.8

Ordinary

equity

GW &

intangibles

Minority

interest

Other CET1

1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment

2. Peer comparison is based on latest available data

3. Excl. CoCos and State prefs.

CET1 ratio at 16.9%1, or 16.3% on a fully loaded basis

Capital

RWAs

(€ bn)

16.3%

12.8%

16.2%13.8%

16.9%

13.7%

16.6%

14.9%


CoCos

Excluding

CoCos

(+500bps)

TBV: €6.9bn

Phased-in

Fully loaded

40.5 40.2

CET1:

€6.8bn

40.2

CET1:

€6.6bn

CET1:

€6.8bn

DTC: €4.9b

Macro

6


GDP growth (y-o-y and q-o-q)

Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, Bank of Greece

Unemployment rate and employment growth

+0.5% s.a. q-o-q,

.&

+1.5% y-o-y in

Q3:16

Real estate prices (y-o-y)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Q3:2

011

Q1:2

012

Q3:2

012

Q1:2

013

Q3:2

013

Q1:2

014

Q3:2

014

Q1:2

015

Q3:2

015

Q1:2

016

Q3:2

016

GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis) GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis)

%

0

5

10

15

20

25

-10

-6

-2

2

6

Aug

-08

Apr-

09

Dec-

09

Aug

-10

Apr-

11

Dec-

11

Aug

-12

Apr-

13

Dec-

13

Aug

-14

Apr-

15

Dec-

15

Aug

-16

Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis)

%y-o-y

Greece – Gov. arrears clearance and public investment

-1,5%

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

H2

:200

8

H1

:200

9

H2

:200

9

H1

:201

0

H2

:201

0

H1

:201

1

H2

:201

1

H1

:201

2

H2

:201

2

H1

:201

3

H2

:201

3

H1

:201

4

H2

:201

4

H1

:201

5

H2

:201

5

H1

:201

6

Q3:2

016

Office prices (Athens, y-o-y) Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y)

House prices (total, y-o-y)

y-o-y

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Q1:2

016

Q2:2

016

Q3:2

016

Q4:2

016

Q1:2

017

Q2:2

017

Payments for arrears clearance (incl. tax refunds, % GDP)

Public investment budget expenditure (% GDP)

as % of GDP

forecasts

The Greek economy comes out of recession in Q3:2016, supported by official funding; labor

market conditions improve; and the decline in property prices abates


Current account balance - (% GDP)

Manufacturing production and capacity utilizationGoods and services exports (y-o-y)

Source: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, EU Commission

An increase in exports provides a boost to healthy corporate activity and business sentiment

60

65

70

75

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Oct-

09

Feb

-10

Jun

-10

Oct-

10

Feb

-11

Jun

-11

Oct-

11

Feb

-12

Jun

-12

Oct-

12

Feb

-13

Jun

-13

Oct-

13

Feb

-14

Jun

-14

Oct-

14

Feb

-15

Jun

-15

Oct-

15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct-

16

Capacity utilization (right axis)

Manufacturing production (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)

% index

-85

-75

-65

-55

-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Dec-

11

Mar-

12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec-

12

Mar-

13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-

13

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Industrial (left axis) Services (left axis)

Retail (left axis) Construction (right axis)

Greece - Business confidence indicators

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

2014 2015 2016

cumulative

as % GDPsurplus

deficit

-20

-10

0

10

20

-60-45-30-15

015304560

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-14

Dec-14

Jan-1

5Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-15

Dec-15

Jan-1

6Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Apr-

16

May-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Transportation (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)

Other services (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)

Tourism receipts (y-o-y, 12m m.a., right axis)

Exports of goods (excl. oil, y-o-y, 3m m.a., right axis)

Capital controls


Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, IMF, Bloomberg,

Gen. Government: revenue and primary expenditure

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009 2010 2012 2013

2014 2015 2016

% GDP

surplus

deficit

excluding SMP &

ANFA revenue

GDP growth forecasts (y-o-y change)

State budget primary balance (% GDP)

10-year government bond spreads over bund

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

Aug

-12

No

v-12

Feb

-13

May-13

Aug

-13

No

v-13

Feb

-14

May-14

Aug

-14

No

v-14

Feb

-15

May-15

Aug

-15

No

v-15

Feb

-16

May-16

Aug

-16

mid

No

v-16

Greece Portugal Italy

% 1st Review completion, ECB

waiver reinstatement, Brexit

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Oct

-10

Feb

-11

Jun

-11

Oct

-11

Feb

-12

Jun

-12

Oct

-12

Feb

-13

Jun

-13

Oct

-13

Feb

-14

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Feb

-15

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Gen. Government net revenue Gen. Government primary expenditure

as % of GDP, 12m m.a.

-0,1

2,7 3,1 2,8 2,4

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a.) GDP growth forecasts (IMF & EU Commission average)

%

fore

cast

s

The fiscal adjustment remains credible, and a swift completion of the 2nd review of the program

-- along with the phasing-in of short-term debt relief measures -- will support the recovery

Appendix

7


Balance Sheet | Group

Group Balance Sheet & P&L

P&L | Group

€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15

Cash & Reserves 1 998 1 974 1 873 2 208 1 982

Interbank placements 2 881 2 909 2 753 2 799 2 788

Securities 23 106 24 187 25 337 24 852 22 233

Loans (Gross) 50 430 51 133 51 512 51 969 52 477

Provisions (12 540) (12 712) (12 909) (12 843) (12 357)

Goodwill & intangibles 140 143 142 147 259

Tangible assets 1 306 1 311 1 315 1 325 1 384

DTA 5 081 5 087 5 093 5 096 5 104

Other assets 9 137 9 143 8 686 7 912 8 089

Assets held for sale 203 742 27 941 27 767 28 580

Total assets 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538

Interbank liabilities 17 799 20 278 25 003 25 166 26 948

Due to customers 42 567 42 184 42 047 42 959 41 890

Debt securities 1 517 1 276 1 279 1 252 1 960

Other liabilities 10 041 10 113 9 621 8 387 8 836

Hybrids - - - - 83

Liabilities held for sale 11 301 23 931 23 643 23 555

Minorities 708 701 735 725 724

Equity 9 099 9 064 9 128 9 100 6 543

Total liabilities and equity 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538

Appendix

€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15

NII 485 482 479 474 472

Net fees 67 61 43 21 13

Insurance income 12 23 18 29 21

Core Income 563 567 540 524 506

Trading & other income (13) (43) (6) 108 (178)

Income 551 524 534 632 328

Operating Expenses (318) (319) (309) (333) (325)

Core Pre-Provision Income 245 247 231 190 180

Pre-Provision Income 232 205 225 298 3

Provisions (182) (208) (158) (739) (256)

Operating Profit 51 (3) 67 (441) (253)

Other impairments (20) (12) (34) (247) (51)

PBT 31 (15) 33 (688) (304)

Taxes (8) (9) (7) (62) 518

PAT (cont. ops) 23 (23) 26 (750) 214

PAT (discount. ops) - (3 028) 71 (1 160) (595)

Minorities (7) (10) (10) (2) (12)

Other one-offs - - - (138) (9)

Attributable PAT 16 (3 062) 87 (2 050) (401)

Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income in previous periods and relates mainly to foreign currency translation differences from the

translation of Finansbank’s assets and liabilities in Euro, in accordance with IFRS. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1

capital in Q2.16


Greece

Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other

Appendix

SEE & Other

€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15

NII 403 400 396 392 389

Net fees 44 37 20 (3) (10)


Core Income 457 459 432 415 398

Trading & other income (25) (52) (19) 105 (178)

Income 432 407 413 520 219



Pre-Provision Income 181 155 170 258 (39)

Provisions (162) (188) (134) (671) (232)

Operating Profit 19 (33) 35 (413) (271)


PBT (1) (44) 2 (655) (322)

Taxes (4) (5) (3) (62) 521

PAT (5) (49) (1) (717) 199

€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15

NII 82 83 83 82 83

Net fees 23 24 23 24 23


Core Income 106 107 108 109 108

Trading & other income 13 10 13 3 1

Income 118 118 121 112 109



Pre-Provision Income 52 50 55 40 42

Provisions (20) (20) (24) (68) (23)

Operating Profit 32 30 31 (28) 18


PBT 31 29 31 (33) 18

Taxes (4) (3) (4) (0) (2)

PAT 28 26 27 (33) 15

Contact details

Paul Mylonas

Deputy CEO

+30210 334 1521

[email protected]

Greg Papagrigoris

Head of IR

+30210 334 2310

[email protected]

[email protected]

Anthony Kouleimanis

Investor Relations

+30210 334 3037

[email protected]

[email protected]

This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of

this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with

respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will

conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as

any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.

Ioannis Kyriakopoulos

Group CFO

+30210 334 3051

[email protected]

Maria Kanellopoulou

Investor Relations

+30210 334 1537

[email protected]

[email protected]

Ilias Katsikalis

Investor Relations

+30210 334 1401

[email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]










Q3.16 Financial Results - National Bank of Greece › english › the-group ›...

Documents

Transcript of Q3.16 Financial Results - National Bank of Greece › english › the-group ›...