Q3 2015 Global Travel Insights - Sojern...Black Friday and Cyber Monday Trends 22 Holiday Travel...

July to September 2015

Global Travel Insights

Q3 2015

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P. 2


P. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Analysis of Recent Travel Trends 4

Global Travel Trends: The Bird’s Eye View4

Late Summer/Early Fall Travel Trends and Major Travel Events 7

NorthAmerica

Outbound Trends During Q3 2015 7

Independence Day and Labor Day Travel in the US 8 LatinAmerica


Europe,MiddleEastandAfrica


Hajj Travel in the Middle East 12

Asia-Pacific


The Global Outlook: Quarter on Quarter Search Lead Times for Outbound Travel 16

Travel Trends Forecast: Regional Travel Trends for Fall/Winter 2015 18

Thanksgiving Travel: North America 19

BlackFridayandCyberMondayTrends 22

Holiday Travel Forecast 22

NorthAmerica 22

LatinAmerica 24

Europe 25

Asia-Pacific 27

Chinese/Lunar New Year Travel Forecast: Asia-Pacific 29

Appendix Glossary 32

Methodology 33


P. 4

SOJERN’S GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

Forthisreport,Sojernanalyzedtravelbehaviorworldwideinfiveregions:Asia-Pacific,LatinAmerica,Europe,MiddleEast&Africa,andNorthAmerica.Thedataprovidedinthisreportisbasedonsearchandbookingbehaviorprovidedbymajorairlines,onlinetravelagencies(OTA’s),meta-search,andothertravelserviceproviders.Airlinesearchesandbookingsfrommorethanabilliontravelerintentdatapointswereanalyzedtobetterunderstandhowonlineconsumertraveltrendsarechanging.

Sojern’squarterlyGlobalTravelInsightsreportsarebrokendownintotwosections.Thefirst,called“Analysis of Recent Travel Trends,”analyzesactualtravelactivitytoexplainshiftsintravelpatternsduringthepreviousquarter.Wethencapitalizeonouraccesstofuturetravelintentdataforthesecondsection,calledthe “Travel Trends Forecast.”Sojernextractsactionableinsightsonthestatedandpredictedbehavioroffuturetravelerswhoresearchduringthequarter.Thissectionisaninvaluabletoolforenablingrealshiftsinmarketingstrategiesthattakeadvantageofprobable futurepatterns.

Q3 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL TRENDS: THE BIRD’S EYE VIEW

Assummerendedandschoolsreopened,globaltravelvolumestaperedsomewhattowardstheendofAugustandthroughSeptember.TwonotableexceptionstothistrendwereLaborDayintheUS,whichmarkedthefinaltravelpeekofthequarterinthisregion,andtheHajjpilgrimagetoSaudiArabia.

WecomparedLaborDaytraveltrendswithIndependenceDaytrendsintheUSandfoundslightlydifferentsearchbehaviorsamongAmericantravelers:theJulyholidaysawmostsearchesfortripstoNewYork,whiletheSeptemberholidaymovedmoretravelerstoseekthesuninMiami.Thereweredisparitiesinthelengthoftripssearchedfor,aswell:only25%ofAmericanslookedtotravelsixormoredaysaroundIndependenceDayvs.awhopping47%onLaborDay.Thatmayhavebeenaffectedbythefactthatthe4thofJulyfellonaSaturdaythisyearandsomeemployersmayhavechosennottograntFriday,July3asapaidholiday.

Similartolastyear,theHajjpilgrimagedominatedtravelinterestinSaudiArabiaduringthemonthofOctober,bringingmillionsofMuslimsfromaroundtheworldtoMeccabetweenSeptember14to21andgeneratingawhopping90%increaseintravelvolumetotheJeddahairport,themaingatewayairportfortheHajj.ThelistoftoptencountrieswiththelargestincreasesinvolumesoftravelintenttoJeddahwastoppedbyOmanwitha243%weekonweekincrease,butalsoincludedtheEuropeancountryofFrance,with94%weekonweekgrowth.

Intermsofgeneraloutboundtraveltrends,wecomparedQ3withthefirsttwoquartersoftheyearandnoticedthatinNorthAmericaandEurope,thepercentageoftravelerswhosearchedforticketssevendaysorlesspriortotheirtripwasonagradualincrease(oneortwopercentagepointshighereachquarter)andtheproportionoftravelerswhosearchedsixtydaysormorepriortotheirtripwasrapidlydeclining.Pleaseseethetableonpage11forexactdetails.

Ifyouhavequestionsaboutanyofthetrendsweforecastedandanalyzedinthisreport,pleaseemailSojern’[email protected].

ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS

mailto:pr%40sojern.com?subject=


P. 5 ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS

The World’s Most Popular Travel Destinations in Q3 2015

Share of Q3 Search and Booking Volumes by Month

34% 32% 34% 34%30%

37%

SEP 15AUG 15JUL 15

% TOTAL OF Q3 BOOKINGS% TOTAL OF Q3 SEARCHES

RUSSIA

THAILAND

UNITED STATES TURKEYITALYSPAIN

UNITED KINGDOM

FRANCEGERMANY

PORTUGAL


P. 6

SECTION I

Analysis of Recent Travel Trends



NORTH AMERICA

Outbound Trends During Q3 2015

Most Searched Destinations (Outbound) Party Size Searched

Duration SearchedSearch Lead Time

NEW YORK CITY

LAS VEGASSAN FRANCISCO

LOS ANGELES

CHICAGO

1 2 3+

72%

19%9%

20%29%

37%

14%

0-3 DAYS 4-7 DAYS8-11 DAYS 12+ DAYS

60+ DAYS30 - 59 DAYS22 - 29 DAYS15 TO 21 DAYS8 TO 14 DAYS7 DAYS OR LESS

19%

13%10% 9%

21%

28%

60+DAYS

30-59DAYS

22-29DAYS

15-21DAYS

8-14DAYS

7 DAYSOR LESS


P. 8

Top Destinations

Trip Durations

8+ DAYS

6-7 DAYS

4-5 DAYS

2-3 DAYS

0-1 DAYS 1%7%

29%21%

39%31%

21%27%

4%20%

INDEPENDENCE DAY LABOR DAY


ComparethesetrendswithMemorialDay,whenonly4%oftravelerslookedattripseightdaysorlongerorwithThanksgivinglastyear,which,inspiteofthefactthatmostAmericansgettwodaysoff,sawonly10%oftravelerstakemorethansixdaysoff.LaborDayisshapingupasAmerica’sfavoriteholidaytoplananextendedtrip.

LABOR DAYSEPTEMBER 7TH1. LAS VEGAS2. MIAMI3. CANCUN4. NEW YORK CITY5. ORLANDO

INDEPENDENCE DAYJULY 4TH1. NEW YORK CITY2. LAS VEGAS 3. MIAMI4. CHICAGO5. LOS ANGELES

MoreAmericanslookedtotakeshortandveryshorttripsaroundIndependenceDaythanaroundLaborDay:36%searchedfortripsthreedaysorlessaroundthe4thofJulyvs.22%onLaborDayweekend.Attheotherendofthespectrum,longtripsofeightdaysormorewerefivetimesmorefrequentaroundLaborDaythanaroundIndependenceDay.

Independence Day and Labor Day Travel in the US

Inlookingtoheadoutoftownforthe4thofJuly,UStravelerssearchedthemostfortripstoNewYorkCity,whereholidayfestivitiesincludedtheMacy'sIndependenceDayfireworksovertheEastRiver.PerennialpartydestinationsLasVegasandMiamiwerethesecondandthirdmostsoughtoutdestinations.ForLaborDayweekend,however,mosttravelerstriedtogetonelastdoseofsunshinebeforetheofficialendofsummer,boostingLasVegastothetopposition,followedbyMiamiandCancun,theonlyforeigndestinationtomakethetopfivemost-searcheddestinationsaroundthisholiday.



LATIN AMERICA



Duration SearchedSearched Lead Time

MEXICO CITY/SANTIAGO

MADRID

BOGOTA

MIAMI

LATIN AMERICA

CANCUN

1 2 3+

71%

20%9%

14%

25%

18%

43%



17%

11%9% 8%

18%

37%

60+DAYS

30-59DAYS

22-29DAYS

15-21DAYS

8-14DAYS

7 DAYSOR LESS



EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA




LONDON

PARIS

PALMA DE MALLORCABARCELONA

BANGKOK

1 2 3+

68%

20%12%


21%

30%14%

35%


17%

11%9% 10%

25%28%

60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

7 DAYSOR LESS

EUROPE





ISTANBUL

CAIRODUBAIJEDDAH

LONDON

1 2 3+

75%

12% 13%

12%

25%

18%

45%


60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

7 DAYSOR LESS

19 %18 %

13 %10 %

20 %20 %


MIDDLE EAST



Hajj Travel in the Middle East

ThepilgrimagetoMecca,alsoknownasHajj,isoneofthegreatestreligiousobservancesinIslam.Itisthejourneythateveryable-bodiedadultMuslimmustundertakeatleastonceintheirlivesiftheycanaffordit.MillionsofpeoplefromaroundtheworldcametoMeccabetweenSeptember14to21toobservethistradition.TheHajjdominates40%ofalltravelinterestinSaudiArabiaduringHajjweek.

Jeddah,themaingatewayairportfortheHajjpilgrimage,seesa90%increaseintravelvolumetheweekoftheHajjcomparedwiththeweekprior.DuringtheHajj,Jeddahclaims40%ofalltravelinterestinSaudiArabia.

Comparison of Travel Volume Between Hajj Week and the Week Prior and Percentage Share of Travel Interest

JEDDAH SAUDI ARABIA

90%

43%

PRIOR WEEK

HAJJ WEEK 40%

30%

SaudiArabiaisthetoporigincountryforflightsintoJeddahairport;EgyptisnexttocontributetotheinfluxoftravelerstoJeddah.IslamisthedominantreligioninEgypt,whichishometoaround80millionMuslims.TheUnitedKingdom,whereIslamisthesecondlargestreligion,isgeneratingthethirdlargestportionofHajjweektravel.OtherMuslimcountries,suchastheUnitedArabEmirates,Turkey,Pakistan,MoroccoandJordanarealsotopcountriesfortravelerstoJeddah.

Destination Share of Jeddah Travel


P. 13

Top Origin Countries for Hajj Week 2015 by Share of Travel Volume

TURKEY5

INDIA64PAKISTAN7

UNITED KINGDOM 3

EGYPT 2 JORDAN10SAUDI ARABIA1

MOROCCO 8UNITED STATES9

UNITEDARABEMIRATES

ThevolumeoftravelintentfromOmantoJeddahduringHajjWeekmorethantripled(up243%)comparedwiththepreviousweek.ThisvastgrowthwasechoedacrossSaudiArabia,BahrainandQatarwithtravelintentvolumedoublingormoretheweekofthepilgrimage.EventheEuropeancountryofFrance,whereIslamisaminorityreligion,witnesseda94%growthintravelintentvolumeduringHajjweekcomparedwiththeweekprior.

Top 10 Countries with Biggest Growth During Hajj Week Compared with Week Prior

50

100

150

200

250

FRANCETURKEYTUNISIAALGERIAJORDANKUWAITQATARBAHRAINSAUDIARABIA

OMAN

243% 233% 230%

132%

203%

130%105%

98% 96% 94%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10RANK

ThemajorityofpilgrimstravelingtoJeddahtendtotravelindividuallywith80%travelingsolotheweekpriorand77%travellingsoloduringHajjweek.Partysizesoftwoandthreeormoreareupby11%and18%respectively.



P. 14

Party Sizes

77%

9%11%

80%

11%12%

1 2 3+

HAJJ WEEK WEEK PRIOR DELTA

-4%

11% 18%

Trip Duration

27%

12+ DAYS

8–11 DAYS

6–7 DAYS

4–5 DAYS

2–3 DAYS

0–1 DAYS

HAJJ WEEK WEEK PRIOR DELTA

37%

4%10%

13%

18%

33%41%

3%

4%

6%5%

-28%

-60%

23%

208%

492%

-20%

One-thirdoftripssearchedduringHajjweektendtobeforalongerdurationwithtripssearchedtheweekprioralsoseeingmoreintent(41%)forlengthytripsof12daysormore.Fivetimesmoretripsearchesarefor8-11daysduringHajjweek,comparedtoatheweekprior.Interestingly,forboththeweekoftheHajjandtheweekprior,searchesindicatethattravelerswouldprefertoeitherstayforalongertripof12daysormoreoraveryshorttripofadayandless.Fewertravelersindicateinterestinstayingbetweentwoandsevendays.






SINGAPORE

BANGKOKHONG KONG

TOKYO

BALI

1 2 3+

75%

17%8%

23%

19%

13%

45%



15%9% 7% 8%

20%

41%

60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

7 DAYSOR LESS

ASIA-PACIFIC



P. 16

The Global Outlook: Quarter on Quarter Search Lead Times for Outbound Travel

ASIA-PACIFICLATIN AMERICAMIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICAEUROPENORTH AMERICA

19%

28% 28%

17% 19%

20%

17% 15%

37%41%

7 DAYS OR LESS 60+ DAYS

Outbound Travel Trends Q2 2015



16%

33%

39%

16%

22%

31%

15% 16%

41% 41%




15%

38%

47%

14%

23%

35%

17% 16%

39% 41%




P. 17

InAsia-Pacific,searchleadtimesremainremarkablystablequarteronquarterandshownosignsofbeingaffectedbyseasonalfluctuations,atleastattheextremesofthespectrum-sevendaysorlessand60daysormorebeforethetraveldates.Infact,Asia-Pacifictakesthecrownfortheleastfluctuationsatbothendsofthespectrum.LatinAmericafollowsclosely,withjustafewpercentagesofdifferenceineachcategory,quarteronquarter.Interestingly,inQ2,thepopularityofsearchingfortrips60daysandmoreseesanincreaseoftwopercentagepointsintheregionoverQ1:41%vs.39%respectively.

EuropeandNorthAmericabehavesimilarlyinbothcategoriesquarteronquarter:fromthebeginningoftheyearthroughtheendofSeptember,increasinglymoretravelerssearchforticketssevendaysorlessfromthedeparturedateandradicallyfewertravelerssearchfortickets60daysormorebeforethedeparturedate.Thesefluctuationsareinlinewiththeseasonaltrends:inQ1travelplanningisinfullswingforthesummerbreakandevenwinterholidays,whileQ2andQ3areincreasinglyseeingtravelerslookingclosertohomeand,consequently,searchingforticketscloserandclosertothedeparturedate.

TheMiddleEastandAfricastandswiththeshortestsearchleadtimesofallandistheoneregionwhereseasonalfluctuationsdon’tfullyexplainthetrends.InQ1alone,awhopping23%ofalltripshadlessthansevendaysbetweensearchanddeparture.Thattrendseemedtotaperoffsomewhatastheyearprogressed.OnepotentialexplanationforthesignificantlyshortersearchleadtimesisthattheaverageageoftheMiddleEasterntravelerisyoungerthaninmostWesterncountries.Higherdisposableincome,whichtypicallybringslessadvanceplanningandmorespur-of-the-momenttravels-couldalsobeacontributingfactor.

Overthenextfewquarters,wewillbegintomonitorforyear-on-yearfluctuationsatbothendsofthesearchleadtimespectrum,lookingforindicationsthatconsumers’behaviorsarechangingandthatsearchleadtimesareshrinkingbeyondjustseasonally.



P. 18

SECTION II

Travel Trends Forecast: Regional Travel Trends for Fall/Winter 2015


P. 19 TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR FALL/WINTER 2015

Withaccesstooverabilliontravelerintentprofiles,Sojern’squarterlytravelreportsaredesignedtoshedlightonrecentshiftsintravelpatternsandofferactionableinsightonstatedandpredictedbehavioroffuturetravelers.Brandsfindour“Travel Trends Forecast”sectiontobeavaluabletoolfordevelopingcontext-awaremarketingstrategies.

Inthisquarter’sTravelTrendsForecast,weexaminedearlysearchpatternsaroundChristmasandtheNewYearglobally.Wealsopredictedtraveltrendsfortwomajorupcomingregionalholidays:ThanksgivinginNovemberintheUSandChineseNewYearinFebruaryinAsia-Pacific.

THANKSGIVING TRAVEL: NORTH AMERICA

Thanksgiving2015intheUSpromisestobethebusiestyet,andtravelershavealreadybegunsearchingforflightsaroundthistimeframe.Ofthosewhohadalreadybookedasofthedraftingofthisreport,travelersweretwoandahalftimesmorelikelytotravelontheTuesdaybeforeThanksgivingandthreetimesmorelikelytotravelontheWednesdaybeforeThanksgivingthanonThanksgivingproper.ThesewerealsothethreemostpopulardaysforThanksgivingtravelthisyear.

MostThanksgivingstripsthisyear(67%)areforfourtofivedayslong,comparedto64%lastyear.

Trip Duration

6+ DAYS

4-5 DAYS

2-3 DAYS

0-1 DAYS 2%

20%

67%

11%

Ifearlybookersareanindication,fewertravelersmaybeheadedontheirtripsalonethisyear:63%aretravelingsolocomparedto71%ofallbookerslastyear,butlast-minutebookers(whotendtotravelsolomore)mayyetskewthesenumbers.


P. 20

Party Sizes

1 2 3+

63%

25%

12%

TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR FALL/WINTER 2015

ThetopfivemostsearcheddestinationsforThanksgivingremainrelativelystableyear-on-year,withthenotableexceptionofSanFrancisco,whichdroppedoffthelist,replacedbyMiami.

Top 5 Searched Destinations

Ranks Top 5 Searched Destinations: 2015

Top 5 Searched Destinations: 2014

1 NewYorkCity NewYorkCity

2 Chicago Chicago

3 Miami Dallas

4 Dallas LosAngeles

5 LosAngeles SanFrancisco

Onecitythatdoesnotmakethetopfivedestinations,butisatopfiveoriginationmarketforThanksgivingtravelsearchesisWashington,D.C.

NEW YORK CITYWASHINGTON, D.C.

MIAMI

LOS ANGELES

CHICAGO 13

2

5

4

Top 5 Origins



Origin Airport Percentage over/under the Nationwide Median Booking Price

JFK 26%

SFO 21%

LAX 18%

PHL 11%

BOS 7%

EWR 5%

DFW -2%

DTW -2%

PHX -4%

MIA -5%

ORD -6%

CLT -7%

LGA -8%

DEN -9%

RDU -13%

DCA -15%

FLL -18%

ATL -33%

Notsurprisingly,destinationslikeNewYorkandChicagobeckonmoretosolotravelers:69%oftravelersareheadingtobothdestinationsalonethisThanksgiving.Meanwhile,Orlandoisattractingasignificantamountofcouplesandfamilies,with55%oftravelersheadingtherethisThanksgivingaspartofatravelpartyoftwoormore.SanFrancisco,evertheromantics’city,isseeingahighpercentageofcouplesheadedthereforvacation,at26%.

ThemostexpensiveairportstoflyoutofthisThanksgivingareNewYork’sJFKandSanFrancisco’sInternationalairport,followedbyLosAngelesandPhiladelphia.Attheendofthespectrum,flyingoutofAtlantamaybethemostaffordablescenarioofall,followedbyFortLauderdaleandWashington,D.C.’sReaganNational(DCA).



HOLIDAY TRENDS

North America

Bookingsforthe2015holidayseasonstartedearlythisyear.Sofar,84%ofbookingsweremadeduringthethirdquarter.Thisholidayseason,definedastheperiodstartingonDecember15andendingonNewYear’sday,NorthAmericantravelersarelookingtotakeslightlymorelongtripsthanlastyear:38%aresearchingfortripsofeightdaysormorecomparedto34%lastyear.Themostpopulardeparturedateswere,inthisorder:December23,19,18,22and24(ChristmasEve).

Trip Durations

14%

5%

13%

20%

27%

21%12+ DAYS

8–11 DAYS

6-7 DAYS

4-5 DAYS

2-3 DAYS

0-1 DAYS

CYBER MONDAY 2014: A LOOK BACKAccordingtoSojerndata,traveldealsareincreasinglypopularonCyberMonday,andnotjustintheUSandEurope:lastyearCyberMondaytriggeredafourfoldincreaseinworldwideflightbookings.AmericansrespondedthemostdramaticallytoCyberMondaylastyear,withanincreaseof96%inflightbookingscomparedtoThanksgiving.Europeanssawlessdramaticbutstillsignificantresultswitha32%increaseinflightbookingsonCyberMondayanda25%increaseweekoverweek.

Last-minutebookingsalsoskyrocketedlastyearintheUSinDecember,possiblyinfluencedbyCyberMondayfallingonDecember1.While54%ofDecemberUStravelersdidtheirsearchinginearlyNovember,theypostponedbooking.Almosttwo-thirdsof2014DecembertravelwasactuallybookedinDecember!

TIME TRAVEL BACK TO CYBER MONDAY 2013

Foralittleperspective:In2013,CyberMondayfellonDecember2andSojerndataindicatedthatUSflightsearchesincreased120%overaverageMondaysinNovember,andbookingsincreasedby50%.

2013wastheyearwhenmanytravelbrandswerejuststartingtoexperimentwithofferingCyberMondaydeals.Theirgamblepaidoff,asconsumerswereclearlyresponsiveandtheappetitefortraveldealsincreasedfromoneyeartothenext,asthe2014datashows.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS YEAR

Inanutshell?Moreofthesame.Weexpectconsumerstocontinuetobeonthehuntfortraveldealsthisyear,and,sinceCyberMondayfallsalittleearlierinthequarter(lastdayofNovember),preparetoseeNovemberbookingsskyrocketthankstothisonemagicalday.


P. 23

Party Size

1 2 3+

52%

29%

19%

Thepartysizesalsoseemtobefollowinganupwardtrend,althoughlast-minutebookersmayskewthesenumbersinfavorofthesolotraveler.Butfornow,only52%ofearlybookersarelookingtotravelalonethisholidayseasoncomparedto74%ofallbookerslastyear.

ThetopfivedestinationsremainsimilartomostUSholidays,butlookingatthebroadertoptenlist,internationaldestinationslikeCancunandSanJuanalsomakeanappearance.


Top 10 Destinations

MIAMI2

NEW YORK CITY1

LONDON3

SAN JUAN10

LOS ANGELES4SAN FRANCISCO9

CHICAGO 5

ORLANDO6

CANCUN8

DALLAS 7

Top 5 Destinations

Top 5 Destinations Booked in Q1 Booked in Q2 Booked in Q3

1 Cancun Orlando NewYorkCity

2 SanJuan London LosAngeles

3 Orlando Ft.Lauderdale London

4 Honolulu Cancun Miami

5 St.Thomas NewYorkCity Dallas


P. 24

Latin America

InLatinAmerica,83%ofholidaybookingsmadein2015weremadeduringthethirdquarteroftheyearsofar.Themostpopulardeparturedatesare,inorder:December19,20,18,22andDecember23.UnliketheirNorthAmericancounterparts,mostLatinAmericanspreferednottotravelonChristmasEve.

MorethanhalfoftravelersinLatinAmerica(58%)arelookingtotakebreaksofsixdaysorlongerthisholidayseasonandalmosthalfofthem(49%)aretravelingaspartofagroupoftwoormore.

Trip Durations

21%

11%

10%

14%

23%

21%12+ DAYS

8–11 DAYS

6-7 DAYS

4-5 DAYS

2-3 DAYS

0-1 DAYS

Party Size

1 2 3+

51%

31%

18%

ThetopdestinationforLatinAmericansthisholidayseasonisMadrid,followedbyanumberofregionaldestinationsand,atpositionsfiveandsix,MiamiandLosAngeles.


Top 10 Destinations

MIAMI5

BOGOTA2

1SAN SALVADOR

LOS ANGELES6

MEXICO CITY9

LIMA4

BUENOS AIRES8

CANCUN3

SANTIAGO 7

MADRID10



Interestingtrendsareshapingupwhenlookingatoriginationmarkets:Bogotaistakingtheleadthisholidayseason,surpassingevenSaoPauloasanoutboundmarket.

Onepotentialexplanation:AccordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund,Colombia'seconomythisyearisexpectedtotripleitssizefromadecadeago,whileColombia'smiddleclassgrewby50%lastdecade,accordingtoarecentWorldBankreport.Additionally,bureaucratichurdlesforeagerColombiantravelersappeartobegraduallylifting.Colombianswillnolongerneedatouristvisaforatotalof43countriessoon,includingthe26EuropeannationsintheSchengenArea.

Top 5 Destinations

Top 5 Destinations Booked in Q1 Booked in Q2 Booked in Q3

1 Houston Cancun Bogota

2 Cancun MexicoCity Madrid

3 Bogota LosAngeles SaoPaulo

4 Galapagos SanJose Lima

5 MexicoCity Guadalajara Miami

Europe

InEurope,themostpopulardeparturedatessofarare,inorder:December19,26(BoxingDay),23,18,27andtiedforsixthplaceareDecember28and24(ChristmasEve).December19isthemostpopulardatetotravelacrossEurope,Asia-PacificandLatinAmerica,andisthesecondmostpopulardatetotravelinNorthAmerica.

Thisholidayseason,definedastheperiodstartingDecember15andendingonNewYear’sEve,Europeantravelersarelookingtotakelongertripswithalmosthalf(49%)searchingfortripsof12daysormore.Two-thirdsoftravelersarelookingtoenjoyalengthytripofeightdaysormoreandalmosthalfofthem(48%)aretravellingaspartofagroupoftwoormore.

Top 5 Originations

SAO PAULO2

BOGOTA1

MEXICO CITY3

LIMA/SANTIAGO5

BUENOS AIRES4

http://www.msn.com/en-my/news/other/colombia-issues-electronic-passports-to-fulfill-schengen-visa-free-requirement/ar-BBlpx73


P. 26

Trip Duration for Travel during the Holiday Season

12+ DAYS

8–11 DAYS

6-7 DAYS

4-5 DAYS

2-3 DAYS

0-1 DAYS

13%

2%

8%

11%

17%

49%

EUROPEParty Sizes

1 2 3+

52%

36%

12%


ThetopdestinationforEuropeansthisholidayseasonisBangkok,followedbyNewYorkCity,London,ParisandLisbon.NewYorkCityhasovertakenLondonthisyearasthesecondmostpopulardestinationfortravelersthiswinter.Parishasalsomovedupfromsixthpositionlastyeartofourthpositionthisyear.LisbonisanewentrantinthetoptenthisyearwithViennaandAmsterdamdroppingoffthelist.AmongallthemetropolisesinEurope,Lisbonhasoneofthewarmestwintersonthecontinent,whichcouldbeareasonforitsboostinpopularity.

Travelerssearchingforwinterholidaysearlierintheyear(Q1andQ22015)weremoredrivenbypotentialwarmweatherdestinationssuchasMiamiandTenerife,atpositionsthreeandfourcomparedwithtravelerssearchingclosertotheirdeparturedate,whoplannedtripstocitiessuchasLondonandParis.

Top 5 Destinations

Rank Lookback: 2014 Actuals

Year-to-Date 2015

1 Bangkok Bangkok

2 London NewYorkCity

3 Berlin London

4 NewYorkCity Paris

5 Barcelona Lisbon

Year-to-Date 2015 Breakdown by Search/Book Quarter

Q1 Q2 Q3

Bangkok Bangkok Bangkok

NewYorkCity NewYorkCity NewYorkCity

Miami Miami London

Tenerife Tenerife Paris

Sydney London Lisbon

Top 5 Destinations Compared with Previous Year


P. 27

Top 10 Origins Markets

LONDONPARIS2

3

MOSCOW4

FRANKFURT5

ROME6

MANCHESTER 7

MADRID8

ZURICH9

AMSTERDAM101

MILAN

ThemostpopularoriginationmarketforEuropeantravelersthisholidayseasonisLondon,followedbyParisandMilan.Moscowissurprisinglysteadfastontheoriginationlist,consideringthestateoftherubleandRussia’seconomicoutlookoverall,makinganappearanceatpositionfour.


Asia-Pacific

SimilartoLatinAmericaandEurope,themostpopulardeparturedatearoundtheChristmasholidayforAsia-PacificisDecember19.TiedinsecondplaceareDecember18and24(ChristmasEve).AdifferentpatternthanwhatwasseeninLatinAmericaandEurope,neitherofwhichhadthedaybeforeChristmasrankintheirtopthreedeparturedates.InthirdplaceisDecember23.AlsodifferentfromLatinAmericaandEurope:ChristmasDayisatopdeparturedateforAsia-Pacific,cominginfourthplace.December26cameinfifth.

Top 10 Origins Markets

SINGAPOREBANGKOK

HONG KONG

TOKYO35

4

SEOUL7

1

AUCKLAND10BRISBANE9

2MELBOURNE6

PERTH 8 SYDNEY

TheoveralltopcountriesthatChristmasholidaytravelinAsia-PacificisoriginatingfromareSingapore,SydneyandTokyo.Ingeneral,Q1andQ2searchesandbookingshadawiderspan,withtravelerslookingtomakearrangementsindestinationsintheUnitedStatesandIreland.ByQ3,toptensearchesandbookingsfromAsia-PacificfocusedintheregionwiththeexceptionofLondonstillmakingtheranks.


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Awhopping68%ofAsia-Pacifictravelersarelookingtotravelalone.Forty-sixpercentoftravelersweresearchingforlengthytripsof12daysormore.


Trip Duration

11%

2%

8%

14%

18%

46%11 DAYS OR MORE

0 10 20 30 40 50

12+ DAYS

8–11 DAYS

6-7 DAYS

4-5 DAYS

2-3 DAYS

0-1 DAYS

Party Size

1 2 3+

68%

19%13%

ThetopdestinationforAsia-PacifictravelersthisholidayseasonwasSingapore,switchingplaceswithBangkok,whichcameinfirstforthe2014holidayseasonandcomesinatsecondfor2015.Londontakesthirdplace.Inaturnofevents,Tokyotookfourthplace,whichhadn’tmadeAsia-Pacific’s2014toptenholidaydestinationlist.HongKongcameinfifth.NodestinationsinNorthAmericamadeAsia-Pacific’stoptenlistfor2015asofOctober1,achangefromlastyear’slistthathadNewYorkCityandLosAngeleswithinitsranks.SeoulandTaipeiwerenewadditionstothe2015toptenlist.

Top 10 Destinations

Rank Final 2014 Year-to-Date 2015

1 Bangkok Singapore

2 Singapore Bangkok

3 Denpasar London

4 Sydney Tokyo

5 HongKong HongKong

6 Manila Manila

7 NewYorkCity Sydney

8 London Denpasar

9 LosAngeles Seoul

10 Auckland Taipei


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CHINESE/LUNAR NEW YEAR TRAVEL FORECAST

ThenextLunarNewYearbeginsonFebruary8,2016.Forthepurposesofthisspecificforecast,wedividedAsia-Pacificcountriesintotwocategories1:GradeI-countriesthatobserveLunarNewYearandforwhomtheholidayisasbigorbiggerthanChristmasintravelimportance;andGradeII-countriesthatcelebrateitbuttoalesserdegree,witheitheroneornopublicholidays,andforwhomitisoflessimportancethanChristmas.

OfthosewhocelebrateandalreadysearchedfortravelaroundtheLunarNewYear,manyarelookingtoflyeitherwithintheweekpriortoNewYear’sDayorduringtheweekfollowingit.

AsofearlyOctober2015,outofthemajorcountriesthatcelebrateLunarNewYear,onlyTaiwanesetravelersshowmoreinterestintravelduringtheholidaythanduringtheWesternChristmasandNewYearperiod.SecondhighestinterestlevelinLunarNewYeartravelssofarcomesfromHongKongfollowedbyChina,thenSouthKorea.

TheoveralltopdestinationfordeparturesbetweenFebruary4to9fromcountriescelebratingLunarNewYearisJapan,followedbyAustraliaandThailand.MostdestinationsresearchedandbookedbytravelersarewithinAsia.JapanandAustraliaaretheonlytwodestinationcountriestomakeitintothetoptenlistofeachcountrythatcelebratesLunarNewYear,andtraveltoAustraliaisamajortrendforallcountriesthatobservetheholiday.AswegetclosertoLunarNewYear,othershorterhauldestinationsarelikelytoclimbtherankings,aswasthecasein2014.

TaiwanistheonlycountrythathadfivedestinationsinitstoptenoutsideofAsia.ThenatureoffamilytiesinMalaysia,VietnamandSingaporeoftenmeansthatthemostpopularplacetospendtheNewYearisathomeorinaneighboringcountrywithrelatives.

1 GradeIcountries:China,HongKong,Malaysia,Singapore,SouthKorea,Taiwan,Vietnam

GradeIIcountries:Indonesia,Philippines,Thailand

Top Destination Countries/Regions for Trips with Departures 4-9 February

Rank Grade I Overall China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore South

Korea Taiwan Vietnam

1 Japan Australia Japan Malaysia Malaysia Japan Japan Vietnam

2 Australia Singapore Australia Australia China Thailand Australia Thailand

3 Thailand Thailand Thailand Japan Australia AustraliaUnitedStates

Australia

4 MalaysiaUnitedStates

SouthKorea

Thailand IndonesiaUnitedStates

Thailand Japan

5 China China Singapore Indonesia Japan Philippines Singapore Singapore

6UnitedStates

JapanUnitedStates

UnitedKingdom

Thailand TaiwanSouthKorea

UnitedStates

7 Indonesia Philippines Taiwan Singapore Philippines Singapore China Cambodia

8 Singapore Indonesia Philippines Philippines HongKong Vietnam France Malaysia

9 Philippines TaiwanUnited

KingdomVietnam India Spain Italy Philippines

10SouthKorea

Malaysia ChinaSouthKorea

Vietnam HongKong Germany Indonesia


East Asia South and Southeast Asia Europe Oceania North America


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Lookingatthemaincountriesobservingtheholidaycombined,7%ofbookingsand17%ofresearchhavealreadybeenmade,aSojernestimatebasedonLunarNewYear2015actuals.ThestrengthofLunarNewYearinTaiwanisdemonstratedbytheleveloftravelsearchesandbookingsalreadyconducted:Taiwaniswellaheadwith12%offlightbookingsand40%ofresearch.

Share of Research and Bookings Conducted by September 30

PERCENTAGE OF FLIGHT BOOKINGS PERCENTAGE OF FLIGHT SEARCHES

THAILANDPHILIPPINESINDONESIATAIWANSOUTH KOREASINGAPOREMALAYSIAVIET NAMHONG KONGCHINA

6% 7%

11%

17%

5%

12%

6%

15%

5%

10%

14%12%

40%

6%

12%

4%

13%

6%

14%

6%

BASED ON 2015 ACTUALS

Almosttwo-thirdsofbookedtravelduringtheLunarNewYeararefortripslasting4to10days.Theamountoftravelforover10daysdropsastravelersaremorelikelytospendafewdayswithfamilyorvisitingfamily.MostcountrieswillpickupresearchofLunarNewYeargetawaysinthecomingweeks.

Distribution of Trip Durations for Lunar New Year Observing Countries

9 OF 2

016

8 OF 2

016

7 OF 2

016

6 OF 2

016

5 OF 2

016

4 OF 2

016

3 OF 2

016

2 OF 2

016

1 OF 2

016

53 O

F 201

5

52 O

F 201

5

51 O

F 201

5

50 O

F 201

5

49 O

F 201

5

0 DAYS

WEEK

LUNAR NEW YEARTRAVELS

CHRISTMAS &NEW YEAR TRAVELS

0 1 2-3 DAYS 4-10 DAYS 11 DAYS OR MORE



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Top Searched Destinations:Thedestinationspotentialtravelersaresearching

Top Traveled Destinations:Thedestinationstowhichtravelersarebooking

Origination Cities:Thecitiespeoplearetravelingfrom

Search Volume:Totalnumberofsearchesmadebytravelers

Booking Volume:Totalnumberofbookingsmadebytravelers

Metro Areas:Theurbanregionsservedbydesignatedairport(s),asdefinedbytherespectivecountry'sgovernmentbureau

Trip Type:Thereasonwhypeoplearetraveling(businessorleisure).Sojernusesanalgorithmthatanalyzesdifferentvariablestodeterminewhetheratripisforbusinessorleisure.

Trip Duration:Thelengthofasearchedorbookedtrip

Search Lead Time:Thelengthoftimebetweenasearchanddeparturedate

Booking Lead Time:Thelengthoftimebetweenabookinganddeparturedate

Party Size:Thenumberofpeopletravelingonthesamereservation

Traveler Intent:Theintenttotravelasdefinedbysearchdata

Last-Minute Booker:Atravelerthatbooksatripwithsevendaysorlesstotravel

Short-Haul Trip:Ashort-distancetrip,usuallyregional

Long-Haul Trip:Along-distancetrip,usuallyinter-regional

Event to Travel:Leadtime(seesearchleadtimeorbookingleadtime,above)

GLOSSARY

SojernanalyzedairlinesearchandtravelbehaviorfromJulythroughSeptember2015tobetterunderstandchangingglobalconsumertraveltrends.ThisreportreviewsSojern’sfindingsacrosstheglobe.

Sojern’sanalysishighlightsanumberofconsumertraveltrends,including:

APPENDIX


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REGIONAL COVERAGE

Sojernbreaksdowntheworldintoregionsandsubregionsasshowninthemapbelow.Regionsareshownwithacoloredbackgroundandsubregionswithawhitebackground.

APPENDIX

Caribbean

South America

AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST

Oceania

Southeast Asia

ASIA-PACIFIC

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Western Europe

East Asia

South AsiaMiddle East

NORTH AMERICA

Central America

LATIN AMERICA

Eastern Europe

EUROPE

Central Asia

METHODOLOGY

Sojern’squarterlyinsightsreportsarebasedontherigorousanalysisofmorethanabilliontravelerintentdatapoints,obtainedthroughSojern’suniquepartnershipswithsomeoftheworld’smostrenownedtravelbrands.Theinsightsavailablethroughthisanalysisenablebrandstodelivertherightmessagestotherighttravelerattherighttimethroughdisplay,video,mobileandsocialadvertising.Ouranalysisisbasedonairportleveldatawhicharethenaggregatedtocountriesandregions.AlloftheinsightsarebasedonveryspecificdatasetsasprovidedbySojern'sdatapartners.

Sojernneversharesorpassesoutpersonallyidentifiableinformation(PII)suchasnames,emails,oraddresses.Thedataprovidedisnotacompleteviewofallglobaltravelerinformationasdifferentdatasourcesprovideadditionalviewsoftravelerbehavior.

Formoreinformation,pleasevisitsojern.com.


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800+GlobalClients

13 Locations

$1BinBookings

350MTravelerProfiles

2.2MHeadsinBeds

SOJERN IN A NUTSHELL

1.2MTravelersinSeats

2013, 2014 & 2015WinnerofDeloitteTechnologyFast500™


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SAN FRANCISCO 1182ndSt.,3rdFloorSanFrancisco,CA94105

NEW YORK135GrandSt.,6thfloorNewYork,NY10013

OMAHA810S.169thSt.Omaha,NE68118

LONDON18SohoSquareLondon,W1D3QL

SINGAPORE

#04-01TheQuadrant19CecilStreetSingapore,049704

DUBAI37thFloor,JumeirahBusinessCentre2Unit3702-25JLT,Dubai,UAE

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