Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings …Apr 29, 2008  · Deutsche Bank - Analyst David...

Click here to load reader

Transcript of Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings …Apr 29, 2008  · Deutsche Bank - Analyst David...

  • F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings ConferenceCall

    Event Date/Time: Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM ET

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • C O R P O R A T E P A R T I C I P A N T S

    Dwight GrimestadArcher Daniels Midland Company - VP Investor Relations

    Pat WoertzArcher Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Steven MillsArcher Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    John RiceArcher Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    C O N F E R E N C E C A L L P A R T I C I P A N T S

    Eric KatzmanDeutsche Bank - Analyst

    David DriscollCitigroup - Analyst

    Diane GeisslerMerrill Lynch - Analyst

    Ken ZaslowBMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    Pablo ZuanicJPMorgan - Analyst

    Vincent AndrewsMorgan Stanley - Analyst

    Christine McCrackenCleveland Research Company - Analyst

    Robert MoskowCredit Suisse - Analyst

    Ann GurkinDavenport & Co. - Analyst

    John RobertsBuckingham Research - Analyst

    P R E S E N T A T I O N

    OPERATOR

    Good ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Archer Daniels Midland Company third quarter fiscal 2008 earnings conferencecall. My name is Eric and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We willfacilitate a question-and-answer session towards the ends of the conference. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS)

    I would now like to turn your presentation over to your host for today's call, Mr. Dwight Grimestad, Vice President, InvestorRelations. Please proceed, sir.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 1

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Dwight Grimestad - Archer Daniels Midland Company - VP Investor Relations

    Thank you, Eric. Good morning and welcome to ADM's third quarter earnings conference call. Before we begin, I would like toremind you that we are webcasting our call and that you can access it at ADMs web site, www.admworld.com. The replay willalso be available at that address. For those following the presentation, please turn to slide two, the company's Safe HarborStatement which says that some of the comments constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's currentviews and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Thestatements are based on many assumptions and factors including availability and prices of raw materials, market conditions,operating efficiencies, access to capital and actions of government. Any changes in such assumptions or factors could producesignificantly different results. To the extent permitted under applicable law, the company assumes no obligation to update anyforward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. Slide three lists the matters we will discuss on ourconference call today and with that, I will turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Pat Woertz.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thanks, Dwight and good morning everyone. I would like to first start with a safety moment.

    In April, ADM held its Second Annual Global Safety Week where all of our colleagues, our contractors, employees, everyonetook the time to stop and discuss safety. This fiscal year, we do have total recordable injuries down 12% and logged workdayrates down 24%. And while that is an improved performance, we do remind ourselves that it's not about statistics, but indeed,about people and we will continue to work hard toward our zero injuries, zero incident goal. This morning we announced thirdquarter earnings of $517 million, up 42% from the third quarter of 2007 and diluted earnings per share of $0.80, up 43% overthe same period. Last quarter on our call, I did highlight the significant positive momentum we were seeing and our third quarterresults today I think demonstrate the ability of our balanced operations, our global network and our strong balance sheet todeliver shareholder value amid these very fluid markets.

    Volatility in commodity markets did present some unprecedented opportunities as we said in our press release and our teamleveraged those opportunities through our financial flexibility, our global asset base and, once again, I think the combinationof the physical assets and intellectual assets combined to capitalize on market conditions. There is a reason for some optimismin the supply fundamentals of world crops. South American farmers are gathering a good harvest. In Europe, we are seeing abetter crop condition than we've seen in a few years and globally, wheat supplies look to be rising. Here in the U.S., the USDApredicts increased soybean production in 2008. However, of course, planting is just getting started, so we will wait and see.These changing supply dynamics will present, as every year does, different challenges and different opportunities going forward.I am confident, however, that we have the right portfolio, the right network and the right people to capitalize on theseopportunities and deliver value to our shareholders. I would like to turn the call now over to Steve Mills who took on -- tookover as CFO the first of March. Steve is a veteran here of ADM and most recently he held our lead role in strategic planningefforts. Many of you already know him well. I hope you'll join me in congratulating him in his new role. Steve, if you will take usthrough our third quarter results.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Thanks, Pat, and good morning everyone. You will see that we've updated the slide desk a bit to help bring some additionalclarity to our numbers so I would like to move to slide four where you will see our statement of earnings highlights for thisquarter.

    Net sales and other operating income increased 64% in this quarter to $18.7 billion. Nearly 90% of this increase was attributableto increases in selling prices, primarily resulting from the significant increase in underlying commodity prices. The remaining10% of this increase in sales revenue was due to higher volumes. Gross profit for the quarter grew 55% to $1.2 billion as overalloperating margins improved. Partially offsetting these improvements in gross profit were significantly higher net corn costs

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 2

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • and rising energy prices. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased $84 million, or 29% this quarter from a yearago due principally to higher global personnel costs including the effects of foreign currency translation, accruals and furtherorganizational realignment expenses. Our financing costs net, which consists of interest expense less investment income, roseto $66 million for the quarter. This increase reflects higher average debt levels that were used principally to finance our additionalworking capital requirements. Our effective tax rate this quarter was 31.5%, down about 3% from last year's rate for the quarter,but in line with the rate we've been estimating for this fiscal year as well as being in line for the full year rate from 2007. Lastyear's tax rate included a cumulative catch up effect related to updated estimates of geographical mix of earnings back in 2007.And as Pat mentioned, net earnings and earnings per share increased 42% and 43% respectively, reflecting strong underlyingindustry fundamentals together with some exceptional merchandising opportunities that we were able to capture this quarter.

    Turning to slide five, we will look at certain items impacting our 2008 and 2007 third quarter's results. As usual, these amountsare stated on an after-tax basis. Commodity prices remained volatile during the quarter and closed higher for our LIFO basedinventories. These price increases created a $39 million, or approximately $0.06 per share charge this quarter, compared to $14million, or approximately $0.02 per share charge for our third quarter last year. Other items set out on this chart include gainson securities and asset sales as well as organizational realignment expenses. A schedule showing the break down of theseamounts by segment is in the appendix to this presentation. Turning to slide six, we are giving I was comparative overview ofour operating profit by segment. You'll note that total segment operating profit for the quarter increased 54% to $913 million,up from $593 million a year ago. We will now turn to slide seven to begin the review of the individual segments.

    Slide seven looks at the operating profit of oilseeds processing. Profit increased 28% to $237 million for the quarter, up from$185 million last year. Crushing and origination results improved $78 million due to continuing strong global demand forvegetable oil and protein meal. Refining, packaging, biodiesel and other results declined $16 million due principally to weakerbiodiesel margins in Europe. Last year's quarter for refining packaging biodiesel and other also included a $14 million businessdisposal gain. Our Asia results principally reflect the company's share of operating earnings of Wilmar International Limited.We see generally positive current market conditions for oilseeds processing due to the continuing strong global demand forprotein meal and vegetable oil. Capacity utilization remains high and is well-balanced with demand. Current crop conditionsin Brazil and Europe are looking good and the USDA is projecting increased soybean production in the U.S. this year. Thedeveloping global biodiesel markets, particularly in Europe, continue to be effected by excess production capacity. And webelieve that ADM's integrated processing model, which allows us considerable flexibility to optimize margin all along the valuechain, remains a significant competitive advantage and allows to us rapidly respond to changes in global supply and demandeconomics.

    Turning to slide eight, slide eight summarizes third quarter operating profit of the corn processing segment which decreased31% in the quarter to $172 million from $251 million last year. Net corn costs, which rose to historically high levels, significantlyimpacted both sweeteners and starches and bio products operating profits. In addition, production volumes were down 3%due to both planned and unplanned downtime in several of our facilities. Energy and chemical costs rose on a year-over-yearbasis which further dampened earnings. Selling prices increased for sweeteners and starches, lysine and ethanol. We also sawincreased lysine and ethanol sales quantities. At this time, we continue to see mixed market conditions for corn processing.Corn costs remain high. In bio products, we see improved ethanol selling prices for the next quarter compared to this pastquarter. Demand continues to grow and gasoline blending economics have improved. Slot prices have increased to about $2.70a gallon on a delivered basis, but we look cautiously further out as it is still unclear how quickly the industry will absorb theadditional capacity scheduled to come into production. As we ship increasing quantities of high fructose corn syrup to Mexico,we look forward to the full benefit of NAFTA. We are also optimistic about the outlook for lysine as recent selling prices haveimproved with increasing global demands.

    We will turn to slide nine which highlights our agriculture services segments operating profit. This was an exceptional quarterfor our merchandising handling business which drove overall agriculture services operating profit up to $366 million from $46million last year. Our U.S. elevator and river system locations continue to benefit from higher capacity utilization rates andimproved storage and handling margins, particularly on export related business, as last crop year's large North American harvestcontinued to work through our system. The volatile grain and freight markets, coupled with favorable risk management

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 3

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • positioning, helped boost earnings in this segment to record levels. Operating earnings from our barge and truck transportationoperations were comparable to last year's quarter as higher operating costs, principally fuel, were priced into freight rates.Current conditions for ag services remained volatile. Grain origination and export flow begins its seasonal shift from North toSouth America where crop conditions point to ample supplies and generally good farm economics. Crop development in Europealso appears to be substantially improved from the last two difficult years and global wheat projection is projected to increaseby 45 to 50 million tons. It's too early as the season to know what North American crops will be this year as the planting seasonis just beginning to get underway.

    We'll turn to slide ten. Slide ten is an operating profit analysis of the other segment showing a $27 million, or 24% improvementto $138 million from last year's $111 million. Wheat, company company and formality improved buy 8 million due principallyto improved margin conditions and favorable risk management results in North American wheat milling and our formalitybusiness. These improvements were partially offset by weaker company company earnings buy height, competitive cost andcompetitive pressures experienced in the North American chocolate market. Last year's third quarter earnings for wheat companycompany and formality include ago $39 million gain from a business disposal. Financial earnings increased $19 million or 66%due principally to increased brokerage services income, decreased loss provisions at our captive insurance company andimproved earnings from our managed fund portfolio. Turning to slide 11, our corporate costs increased $121 million, dueprimarily to the $41 million quarter-over-quarter LIFO variance and to an increase in other which principally reflects the effectsof eliminating the after tax earnings of our minority interests.

    Moving on to slide 12, slide 12 shows our condensed balance sheet as of March 31, 2008. The most significant change to ourbalance sheet is the increase in our working capital due principally to the impact of higher commodity prices. Our strong balancesheet and the financial flexibility it provides is critical to allowing to us grow our earnings and capture enhanced marginopportunities. Net property, plant and equipment has increased $850 million due primarily to the spending related to our majorconstruction projects. And we'll discuss the status of these construction projects in more detail in a few moments. And as youwill note this balance sheet expansion has been financed from a combination of earnings and debt. Moving on to slide 13, slide13 lays out our cash flow highlights for the current and prior nine-month periods. Cash generated from operations before theimpact of changes in working capital was $2.2 billion for the nine months, up 28% from last year, principally reflecting our strongearnings performance. As I noted earlier, the increase in property, plant and equipment spending reflects the noted expendituresrelated to our construction program and we had no share buy-back activity this quarter and dividends paid reflected ourincreased dividend rate.

    We will move on to slide 14. Slide 14 provides an update of our current performance against our targeted long-term performanceobjectives. Return on net assets, RONA., for the rolling four quarters ended March 31, '08 was 13.3% exceeding our 13% long-termobjective and continuing to exceed our approximately 8% cost of capital in spite of the significant increases in working capitaland construction progress related to our capital spending program. Our cost per metric ton of production objective of beingless than $110 per ton, we were above our long-term target as our rolling average costs rose to $114.64 per ton. The largestchanges were in our total energy related costs, both to power our factories and our transportation equipment. We also hadincreased personnel costs and we felt the impact of translating into dollars costs incurred in foreign currencies. And lastly, we'veincurred higher costs this year to merchandise, handle and process the increased volumes of grains. These extra costs negativelyimpact this particular metric, but also allowed to us capture the higher profit margins we have been experiencing.

    Details of the calculation of these non-GAAP, RONA and cost per ton performance metrics can be found in the appendix to thispresentation. And as we mentioned in last quarter's conference call, we've included a slide in the deck today, slide 15, to giveyou an update of our major ongoing construction projects. At this time I will hand it over to John Rice to take you through thisslide.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Thank you, Steve, and good morning everyone. I will be discussing the information on slide 15.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 4

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • This period of unprecedented growth has proven to be challenging as we said before. We've experienced substantial delaysdue to weather, steel shipments and the ability to access available craft labor. We have retested these projects and we areoptimistic about their investments. We also believe they will be very close to our original construction costs estimate of to the$2.5 billion. Our Columbus, Nebraska ethanol facility is scheduled to be on line in the third quarter of calendar 2009. CedarRapids, Iowa ethanol facility is scheduled to be on line first quarter of calendar 2010. These plants will each produce 275 milliongallons of ethanol and are being built next to our existing corn wet milling operations to lower plant operation costs and tobenefit from our extensive logistics network.

    We are converting two of our plants from natural gas to coal co-generation, one in Clinton, Iowa where we are building ourPHA plant and the other in Columbus, Nebraska where we are building one of our dry ethanol mills. These plants will come online in phases. In Clinton, there will be three phases for the three boilers and three turbines. Phase I for Clinton will be completedin the third quarter of this year and the full project will be completed by the end of the first quarter of calendar 2009. Phase I atColumbus will be completed in the third quarter of next year with a full project completed in the fourth quarter. Together, theseplants will reduce our projected energy cost close to $200 million per year based on current natural gas and coal costs. Our PHAbio degradable plant expects to have commercial PHA product in the second quarter of calendar 2009. We look forward toproducing commercial quantities of this unique product. Our local plants first phase will be operational during fourth quartercalendar 2008 and it will be fully operational third quarter calendar 2009. The state-of-the-art plant will deliver improvedproduction efficiencies as well as offering the opportunity to expand our chocolate product line.

    Finally, the Decatur propylene ethylene glycol plant will also be on line in the third quarter of next year. This plant adds a newproduct to our overall product portfolio, adding an additional processing option to our value chain. We are looking forward tocompleting these projects and capturing additional value to our shareholders. Thank you. I will turn it back over to Pat.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thank you, John. And, Operator, we will be happy to take questions if would you open the call line for questions.

    Q U E S T I O N S A N D A N S W E R S

    OPERATOR

    (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Your first question comes from the line of Eric Katzman with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Hi, good morning everybody.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Good morning, Eric.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    I guess my first question, John, has to do with the project delays. I mean, you kind of noted some shorter term issues, but howmuch of the ethanol delays, coupled with the comments about capacity in the industry, I mean how much of the delay is afunction of all that excess capacity coming on line versus kind of the short term stuff you mentioned?

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 5

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    It was all the short term stuff. I mean, we still look at the returns on these two ethanol plants we are building and we feel verypositive just because of the cost advantage we feel and the logistics advantage. But we did experience a lot of cold weatherdelays. I think I mentioned in the last call that I was up in one of the plants and the wind was blowing 40, 50 miles an hour witha 50 below wind chill and it's just tough to operate. And also our steel shipments from China were delayed and it was just notproduction from the Chinese plants, but also just the shipments and getting them through customs ending up delaying theprojects also.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Okay. And then to switch to a second to the ethanol business, did you say that -- I think you said that volumes overall for thesegment were down a few percent, but did you also say that ethanol volumes were up? Did I get that right?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Volumes, volumes are up.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    For both?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    For ethanol.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Okay. But overall in the quarter, I thought you said that the volume -- production volumes were down three.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Overall production, and when we speak to that, it's about the corn grind itself for the whole complex. So ethanol was up, butthe overall segment volumes were down. From a production perspective.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Okay. And then I guess the last question, Pat, I mean as the industry kind of moves its focus from North America to South America,when you say that the ag service results were kind of unprecedented, are you kind of signaling to us that because of the naturalshift and where your assets are more concentrated that the opportunities are reduced given the volumes that flow throughyour system in the move from North to South America?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Well Eric, first of all, it's not a signal, it was a statement that these had been -- the volatility this quarter was unprecedented. Itwas higher than we had ever seen before in any crops. What I was trying to say about the world crops situation, while sometimes

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 6

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • you read that a panic associated with crops I think the supply fundamentals of world crops are improving and as we move toa South American harvest and a large soybean crop, et cetera, that opportunities present themselves differently in differentregions. So John, do you want to add anything to that?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    The only thing I'd add, Eric, as everybody is well aware these are unprecedented times in the commodity market. We've seenwheat go from $5.05 and you get to the Minneapolis exchange on a synthetic basis got to $25.00, now it's back to $10.00.Chicago wheat is around $8.00. We are always going to have a little bit of disruptions which we have seen this last year so it'salways tough to say what the next quarter is going to look at because a lot of different government policies can come into playand growing conditions also.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Last thing and then I will pass it on. I think you had kind of stated in your prepared remarks that the health of the South Americanfarmer is pretty good, but Christina went down there recently and I think that it doesn't -- they look pretty good, but not -- isn'tit that break even level on soybeans, price isn't that much above kind of break even, so are they, in your opinion, they are actuallyin better shape or how do I judge that comment?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Well, I was just down there also about two, three weeks ago and the big issues down there right now are obviously currencyand then the input costs. But I guess my read was that we did not see anybody talk about not expanding. I still believe therewill still be a little bit more expansion on the crop for next year. And also, I'm hearing a lot more talk about people growingmore double crop corn and even single crop corn. So, I think we'll have to see what commodity prices look like when theirplanting season comes, but I guess I'm not looking for any decrease in acreage at all and looking at, actually a little bit of anincrease in acreage.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Okay, thank you. I'll pass it on.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi Investment Research. Please proceed.

    David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    Thank you. Good morning everyone.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Good morning, David.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 7

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    First off, congratulations on a great quarter. A couple of questions. Can you tell us what the average selling price was for ethanolduring the quarter?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    No, we do not give that information out. We usually just talk about it on a spot basis and right now, the demand is -- there'smore demand than supply. We see that going on until probably about the middle of third quarter calendar year and then wesee more supply coming on.

    David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    Well, is it fair to say that the results should be improving because the spot market curve has continued to improve? So from ourseat, the only thing we know is that you guys are contracting your volumes ahead of time. So it seems logical that it's hard tosay where any one quarter where your numbers exactly were, but yet these prices in the spot market have moved up materially.So again, given where the corn costs are versus where the ethanol prices are, does it stand to reason that ethanol profitabilityshould sequentially improve? Is that true?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    No, I think your description is pretty accurate there, David, that spot prices have been moving up and it's a good way to thinkabout it.

    David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    I appreciate that.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    David, one thing you said, there isn't a lot more spot business. Going forward we are not seeing -- we are seeing a little bit morecontracting going forward but still, the majority of the business seems to be spot within a two to three month period.

    David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    Okay. On ag services, Eric was trying to get after this a little bit, but this result here was, it was extraordinary, I mean almost $370million, there's nothing to say about that other than that's just absolutely fantastic. It always leaves everybody out therewondering, what happens next. Can you give us, do you have any visibility on the next, on this next quarter or is the volatility-- Pat, maybe you can just simply comment on the characteristics that drove these results, do they continue to exist right now?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    It's always a hard question, David, as you know. And we try to describe the current situation as continued volatility. And dependingon how one takes that word, what it means for us is that markets continue to move and we see that we are still seeing quarterswhere we have not seen them like this before and as we said in the same conference call last quarter, we said we can seecontinued volatility, but frankly, we didn't know how high or how much. So I think we are trying to describe our current conditionsas certainly describing which crops have already come to market, which ones are continuing to fill out and that global, globally

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 8

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • our network and certainly our intellectual capability should be able to capitalize on whatever opportunities we see and theyshould be -- we should be good at doing that.

    David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    So is it fair to say that conditions are good, we just don't know how good until the results play out?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    I think that's a fair way to say it. I think that's a fair way to say it.

    David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    And then the last question and I will pass it on here, I wanted to go back to Brazil. John, you made an interesting comment onlyabout somewhat of a little acreage increase or just a slight acreage increase, I forget exactly the word you used, but the globalag prices really do seem to indicate that farmers around the world need to increase production. Inventories are very tight. Mybasic gut reaction on these things is that the market signal should indicate the farmers for massive increases in productionbecause of grain stocks. Brazil seems to be the major linchpin on how we are going to do this if we want to see acreage expansion.How firm are you, or how convinced are you that acreage is just going to expand slightly? And kind of, could you give us a littlebit of your rationale to this and maybe some bigger broad picture color on the global grain market?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    On the Brazil side, it's more led to how we feel fertilizer prices and the real is going to be at any given time. And also, just watchingthe corn soybean spread, with the acreage report on the United States, we are expecting a lot bigger stocks in the U.S. and alsoBrazil. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see the southern hemisphere actually expand a little bit more corn and/or wheat acreage.So I think the soybean supply and demand next year looks very well-balanced. I don't think that's going to be the issue and Ithink it's just going to be what other crops they can grow. They are also looking at expanding a little bit more sugar down there.When you look at the total crops, oilseed looks to be very good, wheat looks to be very good and we have, as everybody is wellaware, we are behind on corn plantings this year.

    David Driscoll - Citigroup - Analyst

    Okay. Appreciate the comments everyone. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thank you, David.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question comes from the line of Diane Geissler with Merrill Lynch.

    Diane Geissler - Merrill Lynch - Analyst

    Good morning.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 9

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Good morning, Diane.

    Diane Geissler - Merrill Lynch - Analyst

    Congratulations on your quarter.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Thank you.

    Diane Geissler - Merrill Lynch - Analyst

    Just a question on the ethanol side. It seems like the volume has been ratcheted up here, kind of the food versus fuel debate,obviously not new to our space, but I guess with the current iteration of the farm bill and some of the changes made in the taxincentive there, could you talk a little bit about how would you view changes in the tax incentive, a temporary removal of theRFS standard this year and kind of current economics with where crude is versus the demand picture you have? Could you justcomment on that?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Diane, let me kind of take that from a little bit of a higher plane and then come down to your question a bit.

    This whole debate we hear about, first of all, I emphasize with the consumers who are paying way more for certainly fuel at thepump and more for food. However, the food prices are driven, as we know, by record energy costs. It's the major contributorfor higher food costs, energy, the dollar, demand for food in China, et cetera. And I actually find it sad and maybe even a littleironic that these misguided attacks on biofuels is directed at the one alternative we actually have today to transportation fuel.We have other alternatives that people are working on for other types of energy, but for transportation fuels, biofuels is theonly thing that exists today and it's actually increasing fuel supplies and by doing so, reducing the price of fuel and improvingenergy security. So biofuels are really a real solution to real problems and I think retreat, which is what you are asking about inchanges, retreat from biofuels is wrong. It's foolish. I think it's dangerous. It's a mistake. Retreat from biofuels is just an emptygesture.

    People talk about it that won't fill anybody's stomach and won't fill any gas tasks. Having said that, if you think about some ofthe debate that's going on, again, I think it's misguided. Some day, some day with the base of corn ethanol, for example, in thiscountry and the base of biofuel from food feed stocks which most go to food any way, 90%, 95%, when we move from the basetoday to second-generation and third generation, farmers will plant more, we'll have more food, we'll have more fuel. I justthink it's misguided to think about changes in the energy bill or retraction or retreat in any way. Again, I think it's an emptygesture. John, you want to add anything?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Couldn't agree with you more, Pat. In terms of the market you had you asked about and the volumes, we do keep seeing thevolumes increase and keep seeing more demand, more markets opening up. Ethanol is very cheap compared to gasoline rightnow, so it makes sense for the blenders to be adding ethanol at as fast a rate as they can. And I see the market keep growing.We will have the Brazilian sugar harvest in ethanol coming in the United States probably right around June. We are starting to

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 10

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • see a little bit more coming now. Even with the tariffs, that works coming into the United States. So as far as the -- you askedabout the tax on the tariff, it works now. I don't know why we need to take it off while we are trying to expands our industryhere in the United States.

    Diane Geissler - Merrill Lynch - Analyst

    Could you comment on at what level the economics would know longer work? And here I'm really talking about the tax credit.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    I guess I really don't know how to answer that question. It's all relationship on the price of gas, the price of corn, the blender.There's a lot of different scenarios in there. So if you have $2.00 gas, it's going to be one scenario as opposed to $3.50, $4.00gasoline.

    Diane Geissler - Merrill Lynch - Analyst

    Okay, but given the current environment we are in, and here I'm really speaking to the change that's in the current farm billand to be honest with you, it seems like the farm bill is changing day-to-day in terms what have they intend to do with the taxcredit. But that seems to be the focus that I have from clients, so I was wondering if you could comment on the proposed changein the farm bill.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    I guess as to the proposed change, since ethanol prices can still go higher relative to gasoline, I could see that happening andthe margins staying the same.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    And Diane, I think you're right that daily we see the house and senate leaders are working to determine the final, both the cost, the scope of the final farm bill. So I think the debate is ongoing and the current state of flux is probably -- to think about whatit is today wouldn't be as fair to comment on what it is yesterday and what it might be tomorrow. It's still in flux.

    Diane Geissler - Merrill Lynch - Analyst

    Okay, alright, well I appreciate that. Thank you.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thank you, Diane.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question comes from the line of Ken Zaslow with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 11

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    Hello?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Ken.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Hi, Ken.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    Just two questions, one is on the crop conditions, it seems like a planting in the U.S. on corn seems to be a little bit behindhistory. Does that worry you at all or does that create more opportunities and how do you look at it going forward?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Well, that's a good question. It's always -- whenever crops are delayed, whether it's the United States, South America, you alwaysdo get a little bit concerned, but we always seem to be able to get the crops in the ground. We are 10% behind last year oncorn. If we get some good dry weather here in the next four, five days we have the equipment everybody has, it's amazing howfast we can get crops in the ground. It won't really be a concern until you get to the end of May. You get to the middle of May,there's talk that maybe you lose a little bit of yields, but with corn prices, I think everybody is going to make sure to try to geta corn crop in the ground. The only area that I hear that's real wet is eastern Iowa.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    And does it create opportunity given the volatility again? Does this extend the, I guess the spread between corn here and aroundthe world and how does that play out or does it not have an impact on ag services?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Sure, it can. We can look at last year with wheat prices. Nobody fed feed wheat around the world. They started to use it in flourand they fed more corn. This year, with what we are seeing in the wheat, we can actually see more wheat being fed and lesscorn. It's really, like Steve Mills always says, it's really Econ 101, the supply and demand scenario on everything, but it does createa lot of opportunities for us, yes.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    And then the other question I have is on the crushing environment, do you see any inflection point, any changes on the mealside or the vegetable oil side that would either be positive or negative? Can you give us some clue on any deltas coming downthe pike?

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 12

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    On the protein meals side, we hear talk, but you keep looking at the layers in the swine and cattle. We are starting to see a littlecut back in cattle that's going to affect corn more than it does protein meals. But worldwide demand, we are seeing very gooddemand on that. And the oil demand, even though we have very large oil stocks, just because of the biodiesel, it's keeping thedemand strong also.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    Great. I appreciate it.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thanks Ken.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Zuanic from JP Morgan. Please proceed.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    Good morning, everyone.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Good morning Pablo.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    Just a very specific question maybe for John. When I think of ag services, in very simplistic terms is high prices, are high pricesby far the main driver the earnings growth in that division? Because you keep using the world volatility and dislocation but isn'tit just the fact that prices are just so much higher that are driving earnings there?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    I'm sorry, go ahead.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    Go on.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    It's really more of the opportunities globally, because of our global footprint of being able to move crops from one area to theother. You also get into our barge freight, our elevation at the gulf. Vessel freight and being able to deliver to our customers

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 13

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • and giving our customers flexibility on whatever products they want and give -- if they buy wheat and they want to switch overto corn or corn gluten seed, that's really what drives it and gives us a lot of opportunities, just not just purely high flat prices.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    But on that point, John, if we compare the environment say, to a year ago or two years ago when your earnings in that divisionwere much lower, I could make the argument that your footprint, your global footprint was already there. But the main differencein the meantime is really prices. The volatility and dislocation, we had droughts back then and we also had some form of volatility.Has that really changed or are you are gaining volume share, is the high price environment resulting in working capital payingfor smaller traders and that also gives you opportunities? I'm just trying to understand what has changed, because your globalfootprint was there two years ago also, right?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Higher volatility and our strong balance sheet obviously comes into play into that. We are able to buy more crops, be able toto use our capital to be able to not back out of markets when the volatility is high and be able to take on more ownership atany given time and then being able to sell them to our customers. But, like I mentioned earlier, we saw wheat has gone from$22.50 in the Minneapolis or $25.00 down to $10.00. It's not just all price, the volatility also plays into the profitability there.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    And then in terms of volumes, again in that division, that's -- you don't disclose volumes for ag services, but roughly, howimportant is volume growth there or it's not really a relevant piece?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Volume is very important. I mean, as we pick up volume in South America, we had a huge corn crop here in the United States.We handled additional volume there, it affects our barge line and also affects ocean freight. So, yes, volume does come intoplay.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    And just a couple of follow-ups, moving on to ethanol. Given that the ethanol business, now you're saying there's more to atwo to three-month support basis compared to, I understand, six, nine months before. Does that mean that you also havechanged your corn hedging policies, that perhaps you were longer corn on ethanol before ethanol before and now you're shortof corn, only two or three months positions given the type of contracts you have?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    No, we haven't changed on philosophy on corn hedging. And on the ethanol side, just looking at the supply and demandscenario which is always constantly changing as long as ethanol is very cheap to gasoline, we may see markets expand quickerthan what we see. But right now, it looks like we will have excess supply in about the third or fourth quarter of this year, but it'snot just the U.S. supply it's also the Brazilian supply coming into the United States.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    Right.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 14

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    You know, these markets are constantly changing. It can be, all of a sudden some of these new ethanol plants can have workingcapital issues and not be able to start up. We've seen that, those problems.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    Right. On that point, besides you announcing the delays of these two plants today, are you aware of large (inaudible) are beingdelayed because of the credit crunch, is that something you can talk about that you know?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Just for clarification, Pablo, ours is not due to any credit crunch. These are delays as we talked about. We have seen some otherannouncements of delays, but any future ones, I can't say.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    Okay. One last one, I mean, given all this discussion of the (inaudible) sugar ethanol, can you give us an update in terms of yourplans to try to expand there? (inaudible) is doing it on a greenfield basis, a smaller scale basis, how do you think of that market?If you go in would you go in on a large scale or would you start from a, on a greenfield basis, piecemeal basis, were you talkabout that, Pat?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Yes, it's probably the -- all of the above are opportunities for us, which means we can go in with a partner, I think we would,what we do think about about is something that could grow to the scale to be a significant contributor to ADM's shareholdervalue. So weather that's greenfield with a partner, expanding some production that already occurs today, looking at the markets,we have established a trading operation. We do understand the infrastructure and the ability to move in the region. So staytuned. We are evaluating all opportunities there.

    Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    One very last one and I'll pass it on. I'm surprised on the sweetener side your earnings are not tracking as well as those of say,corn products international and I'm just wondering, can you talk about your model there? I mean, there's one that's on a trollingbasis, right, that's cost plus, so there, I suppose, corn is not a factor. And then on the fixed price side, I always made assumptionthat in the fall, would you hedge most of your corn so your margins on the fixed price contracts would be much pretty muchset for the year and the only variable there would be coal products, but corn prices have moved up, so earnings on cornproduction would be up. I'm just surprised about the weakness in sweetener earnings. I could conclude from it that maybe youare not hedged as aggressively or you don't (inaudible) some fixed price corn (inaudible) and you leave corn unhedged there.Can you comment on that?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Most of our business is flat price. We do have tolls and they are, some people have two to three-year tolls, also. But the majorityof our business is flat price. Coal products can also have a timing issue on when they are actually sold and when they are shippedand how that affects the net corn price. But our basic philosophy is always stay hedged on corn. So that has not changed.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 15

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Pablo Zuanic - JPMorgan - Analyst

    Thank you.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thank you, Pablo.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

    Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst

    Good morning everyone.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Good morning, Vincent.

    Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst

    Just kind of follow up on one of the things from earlier, isn't it reasonable, there's just kind of a lot of, maybe too much attentionbeing played to the mandate in ethanol relative to the fact that it's -- blending is really, we are going to blend above the mandateagain this year as we did last year and that's really a function of economics, in other words the oil price, the (inaudible) priceand the ethanol price, rather than a government mandate.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Yes, and that's kind of resupporting again that it's swelling supplies and good economically, yes.

    Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst

    Okay. And on -- what happened in Asia in oilseeds this quarter that it was down?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    I think, this is Steve, Vincent. We do pick up our share of Wilmar and it's somewhat an apples and -- apples and oranges comparison.As you know, Wilmar has been transitioning with its combination with (inaudible) oil and grain. So there's just a combinationof what was available to pick up to report last year and this year. It's going to take a few more quarters to A., to get apples andapples, and also, we are always a quarter behind in picking up their results. So it's kind of a mix and we just had a differentownership mix a year ago than we do today and that's going to sort itself out.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 16

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst

    Okay. And then on corn costs in corn processing, is there any relation to ag services there? In other words, is there some scenarioby which you have higher corn costs in corn processing because you see more opportunities to move corn around in ag servicesand there's some offset there because you are just kind of picking a bigger pieces of the value chain to earn a better marginsin? Does that make sense?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Yes, but we don't really look at it that way. We -- I mean --

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    The question makes sense but --

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    But ag services has their own, they will look at it more on the global basis on the corn and moving the corn from the elevatorsystem. Now, they will sell to the corn processing division, but really, that's how we manage our business that way.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    And we sell it over at market prices. So the, the question was good, but we run them separately and there's no offset here.

    Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst

    Okay. And lastly, I think, what are you seeing in terms of Mexican high fructose corn syrup?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    We still see that market coming around this year. We are making shipments down there as the first three months of this year,domestically, just because of the weather, fructose demand was a little lower, but we still feel very positive that any loss wehave in the United States in volume will be picked up in Mexico.

    Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst

    So in other words, it's early days on that line at that point. Okay. I will pass it along.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thanks, Vincent.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question coming from the line of Christine McCracken of Cleveland Research. Please proceed.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 17

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Christine McCracken - Cleveland Research Company - Analyst

    Good morning.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Hi, Christine.

    Christine McCracken - Cleveland Research Company - Analyst

    Just want to to check, too, on the impact that the strike in Argentina might have had on the quarterly results. It didn't getmentioned, and I was just wondering if it actually helped you during the quarter or hurt you.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Well, we have operations and we are exporting corn and soybeans out of South America. That was really right before the harveststarted. We did see some other opportunities in other parts of the world because people were worried about getting their shipsloaded in South America. So, you may have have little blips that help you in that kind of situation. But long-term, it's not verygood to have Argentina not exporting into the world market.

    Christine McCracken - Cleveland Research Company - Analyst

    Do you see that situation getting resolved? Do you have any additional color from your visit or otherwise?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    I don't, no.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    I think -- I mean, I'll just jump in briefly. Exporting grain in Argentina is important for that country. It's one of their criticalcurrencies. So, just kind of go back to the fundamentals of why I think it will sort itself out down the time, but I don't think wehave much additional color than what you read.

    Christine McCracken - Cleveland Research Company - Analyst

    Alright. Then, just in terms of the other countries, several other countries have put similar protection as to policies in place, kindof hoarding grain as it were as things get tight. How do you manage, I guess, your trade flows? Do you kind of anticipate apolitical disruptions and dislocations and how do you work around that when historical trade flows are disrupted?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Well, those are always very tough, at least for me, to anticipate. Just like last year, the Ukraine quit exporting wheat. So thatgave some other opportunities around the world. Now, here in the last week, the Ukraine is going to export wheat again becausethey feel better with their supply and demand. So, it's always a moving supply and demand scenario around the world.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 18

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    One of the things I might add, Christine, is that's the benefit of our global system, is that even though you might not be able toanticipate and I think it's hard to anticipate who is going to pull a new, introduce a new export ban or a tariff or something ofthat sort but with a global system that we have, we have the ability to react quickly and react to support both the customerand the markets that are needed.

    Christine McCracken - Cleveland Research Company - Analyst

    Fair enough. And then just secondly, Pat, with all due respect, I do take modest exception with your comment that ethanol hashad no impact on food cost inflation because --

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    I didn't say no, I just said it wasn't the major contributor, like energy or the dollar or the demand for food. But go ahead withyour question, thanks.

    Christine McCracken - Cleveland Research Company - Analyst

    I'm just wondering, when we look at the losses in the livestock industry that we are seeing right now and realizing that they areyour major customers here domestically, how do you go to those customers and say to them that your other major business ishaving a limited impact as it were, on their cost of production when in fact ethanol has increased its consumption of corn andthere are limited supplies?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    It's a great question, Christine, and I think it's helpful to have the intellectual debate that you're asking the question about. WhatI was trying to get to and particularly is not only do I emphasize with the consumer, but those that are paying higher cost forfeed as you mentioned for ultimate packaged food, et cetera, but to those that think about retreating from the policy is a wayto fix that. It won't fix the problem and in fact it may have higher energy costs as a result of that or it may have higher evenshort term costs let alone the long-term impact of sending signals to the market where you want to encourage more growingof food and more growing of crops that could produce energy, et cetera, buy retreating from biofuels policies that can help forthe long-term by making some short term gesture as I called it that I don't think would solve that problem, is what I was tryingto address.

    So I think it's worth having the debate about what we can do and what people can do to help both with increasing the suppliesof food and fuel and products that lead to both. I think that's where the discussion and the debate should happen. So I appreciateyour question and asking it in a way of there is some short term issues and then there is some longer terms to focus policy on,and I was trying to address that policy focused to long-term should be important to keep the trend and keep the faith and keepthe force.

    Christine McCracken - Cleveland Research Company - Analyst

    I'm sure there will be years of lively debate on that. Thank you.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 19

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thank you.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.

    Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse - Analyst

    Hi, thank you. You mentioned that Europe wheat conditions are much better this year, that the crops should be very, very strong.My perception of one of the biggest drivers of the ag services outperformance was that a lot of grain got shipped from NorthAmerica and South America into Europe because they didn't have wheat so they needed to substitute corn to feed their animalsthere. So, I keep thinking about the sustainability of what ag services is doing and you yourself are describing it as exceptional.So I guess the question is, if wheat production is back to normal again in Europe and maybe some of these countries are goingto stop like the Ukraine, they are going to stop the bans they put on exports, doesn't that mean that you have fewer opportunities,fewer exceptional opportunities for profit in ag services? Thank you.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    There's a lot of ifs in there, so if this, if that, and I think there's some scenario kind of planning that could take you down a lineof less opportunity and another that could take you down to more or about the same. And I guess what we are trying to say is,it's hard to tell and every time you think one part of the crop or the globe is normal, something else seems to have a blip. Sowhether it's weather related or other, I think your example of something is obviously away -- one of the scenarios that couldunfold.

    Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse - Analyst

    John Rice, do you have any opinion on that?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Yes. I mean --

    Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse - Analyst

    Probably the same.

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    I totally agree with what Pat was saying and you always have different opportunities. This year we have an inverse in the soybeanmarket here in the United States, but South America a very large crop. So I mean, there's always world dynamics that areconstantly changing nowadays and we are always looking at those different opportunities.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 20

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse - Analyst

    Okay. And let me ask one question on biofuels. If blenders are now finding it economically viable to blend ethanol becauseethanol is now priced below wholesale gas, what is the necessity then in your opinion of the $0.51 blender credit? I mean, dowe need that credit any more and do we also need the $0.54 import tariff on sugar ethanol?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    I think as long as we are building this industry, we are still in the early stages of building this industry, it's very important to keepthe import tariff. The import tariff, they are already shipping ethanol with it and then also through the Caribbean they are shipit without the tariff. But I think it's really, to really help with more corn production and building of the industry. So, yes, I do thinkit's important.

    Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse - Analyst

    Thank you.

    OPERATOR

    (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Your next question comes from the line of Ann Gurkin with Davenport. Please proceed.

    Ann Gurkin - Davenport & Co. - Analyst

    Good morning.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Good morning, Ann.

    Ann Gurkin - Davenport & Co. - Analyst

    Most of my questions have been answered. I just wanted to get an update on GMO grains getting shipped to Europe. Can wejust get an update on that, any changes?

    John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    I'm not aware of any changes here in the last two, three weeks. They haven't asked the question but they are still going throughthe process, it's just a slower process. There's nothing new that I'm aware of.

    Ann Gurkin - Davenport & Co. - Analyst

    We didn't have to process (inaudible) given the still tight supply of grains globally.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 21

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    You would think so, but we just haven't seen that happen over there, especially with the better crop in Europe, they may nothave the need to speed that process up to make sure they can have more imports.

    Ann Gurkin - Davenport & Co. - Analyst

    That's all I have. Thanks.

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Thanks, Ann.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Buckingham Research. Please proceed.

    John Roberts - Buckingham Research - Analyst

    Good morning.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Good morning, John.

    John Roberts - Buckingham Research - Analyst

    Pat, I think you've earlier said that ADM would be interested in substantially increasing it's presence in Brazil including thepossibility of a transaction. Could you just maybe characterize the deal market there in light of the credit conditions, the sugarcane market changes and so forth?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    I might start but ask Steve to add to it in his role of strategy work, I guess, has the most updated information. But, we've beenable to look at several possibilities of which we are open to a variety of transactions. But again, waiting as well for the rightmarket conditions, the right partner, the right infrastructure work and our own evaluation of those opportunities. As far as thedeal market, Steve, do you want to comment there?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Well, I think in this particular area with Brazil sugar ethanol, we've been, as Pat mentioned, we've been looking for sometime,had a lot of discussions. And I really don't see the credit side of the world having much impact here. I think there is still goodopportunities and I think there is still real interest there. We talk to people, I won't say every day, but on a regular basis. So Idon't see this really changing much.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 22

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • John Roberts - Buckingham Research - Analyst

    Is the value gap between buyers and sellers large, has it increased over the past year or decreased?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    What did you ask, John?

    John Roberts - Buckingham Research - Analyst

    In negotiations or discussions, is there a large gap between -- is there just an unwillingness to do transactions or is there a largevalue gap?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    I think, for us it's always a value discussion. We are looking to make a long-term investment, get good returns for the shareholder.We are also sitting here in a time of moving markets and just like any negotiation in a market that has some heat to it, whichthe sugar ethanol has had, you sometimes get some differences of opinion of values, so I would say it's more the value side.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thank you, John.

    OPERATOR

    Your next question is a follow-up question from the line of Eric Katzman with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Thanks for taking the follow up. Pat, I guess I just wanted to go back to the comments that you've made on ethanol. I mean, itjust seems that the corn lobby and the ethanol lobby has really dominated in Washington. On the one hand, you have Grassleyjumping out of his seat when the $30 billion gallon mandate was first talked about and you have Dick Bond and Tyson talkingto Cagney that it's criminal what's going on. And so there's a lot of politics and everything and there's a lot of lobbying goingon. George Bush is talking about a food and fuel 1030 this morning. But I guess as shareholders, why shouldn't we be just muchmore concerned about this business if things are coming up for debate, whether it's the level of the mandate, the amount oftariffs, sugar coming in with billions of dollars of capital that you have on the line in building these dry mill dedicated facilities?I mean, it just seems to me that as a shareholder just, we just have to be more concerned about that stream of profits with theunderstanding it's just -- it's part of the business, it's not everything. Can you comment on that?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Yes, Eric, thank you for the question and as a shareholder and as shareholders, I think one should always be challenging andquestioning both the investments and the philosophy and the operations of the business.

    A quick correction, it's not billions for the ethanol business, it's millions and I think what -- why I bring it up as a good intellectualdiscussion to have is that while there is debate and while there is challenge about energy policy, energy itself is quite a complexset of discussions about what drives $110, $120 crude oil prices, let alone what drives gasoline and diesel margins, let alone

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 23

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • what drives agricultural products and commodity prices. And I think having, if people worry about unintended consequencesand policy for the longer term, I think having a lack of certainty versus some certainty, and certainly this last round of this energybill allows some certainty for investors like ourselves, particularly those that can do large scale projects and provide significantamounts of fuel to the system, that certainty is important for investors to count on and to have in the longer term. And so, it'sworth asking the questions as you're doing as, can I have that certainty and why we are commenting about how that certaintyis even more important, even under some challenging short term conditions. It's important to stay the course. And the coursewill provide in the longer term the bigger volumes that come from, whether it's second-generation, third, et cetera, which iswhy policy makers put it in place in the first place. So, retreating on it, again, is something that I think is misguided andmisinformed and again, high energy prices and high energy costs incorporated in food prices is one of the things that actually,again, ethanol or other biofuels can mitigate.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    And then, just as a quick follow up, maybe somewhat related in terms of capital allocation is the lack of share repurchase thisquarter a function of the working capital usage and not a function of your view on the value of the stock?

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    No, we consider our use of cash every quarter and as you know, this quarter a large amount of it went to not only increases inworking capital but our continued capital projects. Dividends, share repurchase is always one of the items in the mix, so it alwayswill be.

    Eric Katzman - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

    Okay. Alright. I will pass it on. Thank you.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thanks, Eric.

    OPERATOR

    (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Your next question is a follow-up question from the line of Ken Zaslow with BMO Capital Markets.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    Thank you very much for taking the follow on. Were you profitable in lysine?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    Yes.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    So, if I kind of do a calculation of your ethanol business as a percentage of your overall profitability, it would probably be lessthan 8% or 9%. Is that fair?

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 24

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • John Rice - Archer Daniels Midland Company - EVP of Commercial and Production

    Don't know the answer to that off the top of the head. We haven't looked at it that way. We are always looking at whatopportunities and products we can make, and right now we are seeing with the feed demand globally,we are seeing a lot betterreturns in lysine so we are, as a matter of fact have an expansion going on in our lysine plant, a smaller expansion.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    As I look forward, I mean, do you expect ethanol to be going out even three to four years? By my back of the envelope calculationagain, I see it as being less than 10% of your profits this quarter, but even going out, is it -- do you ever expect it to be morethan a quarter of your earnings or do you still expect to be doing other business besides ethanol?

    Steven Mills - Archer Daniels Midland Company - CFO

    It's always a mix. So at least it's one of the great things about our franchise that we make it all across the board and I wouldnever say that it wouldn't be a certain percentage or not a certain percentage. We are hoping the whole pie gets bigger.

    Ken Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

    Great. I appreciate it. Thanks.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Thanks, Ken.

    OPERATOR

    We are showing no more questions in queue at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Patricia Woertz for closing remarks.

    Pat Woertz - Archer Daniels Midland Company - Chairman, CEO

    Okay. That's it for our end. Thank you so much for your interest and your great questions and we will see you next quarter.

    OPERATOR

    Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect and have agood day.

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 25

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

  • D I S C L A I M E R

    Thomson Financial reserves the right to make changes to documents, content, or other information on this web site without obligation to notify any person of such changes.

    In the conference calls upon which Event Transcripts are based, companies may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-lookingstatements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on anumber of important factors and risks, which are more specifically identified in the companies' most recent SEC filings. Although the companies may indicate and believe that theassumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that theresults contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized.

    THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EVENT TRANSCRIPTS IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDEAN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALLS. IN NO WAY DOESTHOMSON FINANCIAL OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ONTHIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY EVENT TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S SEC FILINGSBEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS.

    ©2008, Thomson Financial. All Rights Reserved. 1809378-2008-04-29T12:43:56.527

    www.streetevents.com Contact Us 26

    © 2008 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without theprior written consent of Thomson Financial.

    F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T

    Apr. 29. 2008 / 9:00AM, ADM - Q3 2008 Archer Daniels Midland Company Earnings Conference Call

    http://www.streetevents.comhttp://www010.streetevents.com/contact.asp

    Cover PageCorporate ParticipantsDwight Grimestad (1 Turn)Pat Woertz (34 Turns)Steven Mills (17 Turns)John Rice (34 Turns)

    Conference Call ParticipantsEric Katzman (11 Turns)David Driscoll (8 Turns)Diane Geissler (6 Turns)Ken Zaslow (9 Turns)Pablo Zuanic (11 Turns)Vincent Andrews (6 Turns)Christine McCracken (7 Turns)Robert Moskow (5 Turns)Ann Gurkin (4 Turns)John Roberts (4 Turns)

    PRESENTATION1. OPERATOR2. Dwight Grimestad3. Pat Woertz4. Steven Mills5. John Rice6. Pat Woertz

    QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS1. OPERATOR2. Eric Katzman3. Pat Woertz4. Eric Katzman5. John Rice6. Eric Katzman7. Steven Mills8. Eric Katzman9. Steven Mills10. Eric Katzman11. Steven Mills12. Eric Katzman13. Pat Woertz14. John Rice15. Eric Katzman16. John Rice17. Eric Katzman18. OPERATOR19. David Driscoll20. Pat Woertz21. David Driscoll22. John Rice23. David Driscoll24. Steven Mills25. David Driscoll26. John Rice27. David Driscoll28. Pat Woertz29. David Driscoll30. Pat Woertz31. David Driscoll32. John Rice33. David Driscoll34. Pat Woertz35. OPERATOR36. Diane Geissler37. John Rice38. Diane Geissler39. John Rice40. Diane Geissler41. Pat Woertz42. John Rice43. Diane Geissler44. John Rice45. Diane Geissler46. John Rice47. Pat Woertz48. Diane Geissler49. Pat Woertz50. OPERATOR51. Ken Zaslow52. Pat Woertz53. Steven Mills54. Ken Zaslow55. John Rice56. Ken Zaslow57. John Rice58. Ken Zaslow59. John Rice60. Ken Zaslow61. Pat Woertz62. OPERATOR63. Pablo Zuanic64. Pat Woertz65. Pablo Zuanic66. John Rice67. Pablo Zuanic68. John Rice69. Pablo Zuanic70. John Rice71. Pablo Zuanic72. John Rice73. Pablo Zuanic74. John Rice75. Pablo Zuanic76. John Rice77. Pablo Zuanic78. Pat Woertz79. Pablo Zuanic80. Pat Woertz81. Pablo Zuanic82. John Rice83. Pablo Zuanic84. Pat Woertz85. OPERATOR86. Vincent Andrews87. Pat Woertz88. Vincent Andrews89. Pat Woertz90. Vincent Andrews91. Steven Mills92. Vincent Andrews93. John Rice94. Steven Mills95. John Rice96. Steven Mills97. Vincent Andrews98. John Rice99. Vincent Andrews100. Pat Woertz101. OPERATOR102. Christine McCracken103. Steven Mills104. Christine McCracken105. John Rice106. Christine McCracken107. John Rice108. Steven Mills109. Christine McCracken110. John Rice111. Pat Woertz112. Christine McCracken113. Pat Woertz114. Christine McCracken115. Pat Woertz116. Christine McCracken117. Pat Woertz118. OPERATOR119. Robert Moskow120. Pat Woertz121. Robert Moskow122. John Rice123. Robert Moskow124. John Rice125. Robert Moskow126. John Rice127. Robert Moskow128. OPERATOR129. Ann Gurkin130. Steven Mills131. Ann Gurkin132. John Rice133. Ann Gurkin134. John Rice135. Ann Gurkin136. Steven Mills137. OPERATOR138. John Roberts139. Pat Woertz140. John Roberts141. Pat Woertz142. Steven Mills143. John Roberts144. Pat Woertz145. John Roberts146. Steven Mills147. Pat Woertz148. OPERATOR149. Eric Katzman150. Pat Woertz151. Eric Katzman152. Pat Woertz153. Eric Katzman154. Pat Woertz155. OPERATOR156. Ken Zaslow157. Steven Mills158. Ken Zaslow159. John Rice160. Ken Zaslow161. Steven Mills162. Ken Zaslow163. Pat Woertz164. OPERATOR165. Pat Woertz166. OPERATOR

    Disclaimer