Q3 2006 resultstryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/2019-01/2006_q3_webcast... · 2019-01-11 · 3 Income...

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1 Q3 2006 results November 9, 2006 Visit www.trygvesta.com for further information Webcast

Transcript of Q3 2006 resultstryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/2019-01/2006_q3_webcast... · 2019-01-11 · 3 Income...

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Q3 2006 resultsNovember 9, 2006

Visit www.trygvesta.com for further information

Webcast

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Highlights Q3 2006

• Solid premium growth in Corporate, Finland and Sweden

• Unique customer benefit launched in Denmark: extended warranty insurance

• New pan-Nordic CRM alarm system implemented

• Request filed to the Norwegian authorities to establish Vesta as a TrygVesta branch. Decision expected end 2006

• Dansk Kaution to provide its services outside Denmark under the brand TrygVesta Garanti

• 10,000 insurances sold in Sweden (October 2006)

• Changes in management to optimise organisational structure

Gross premium income DKK 4.1bn, up 2.5%

Combined ratio of 85.3%

Technical result DKK 740m, up DKK 85m

Outlook for 2006 upgraded

Gross premium income DKK 4.1bn, up 2.5%

Combined ratio of 85.3%

Technical result DKK 740m, up DKK 85m

Outlook for 2006 upgraded

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Income summary statement

Q3 Q3 Q3 Change Q3 1-3 Q 1-3 Q 1-3 Q Change 1-3 Q

2006 2005 2004 2005/2006 2006 2005 2004 2005/2006

Gross premiums earned 4,071 3,975 3,810 2.4% 12,036 11,744 11,446 2.5%

Claims ratio 64.1 65.2 65.9 1.1 67.4 72.7 67.3 5.3

Business ceded as a percentage of gross premiums4.6 3.6 4.8 -1.0 3.4 -1.6 5.4 -5.0

Claims ratio, net of ceded business 68.7 68.8 70.7 0.1 70.8 71.1 72.7 0.3

Expense ratio 16.6 16.6 17.2 0.0 16.8 17.0 17.2 0.2

Combined ratio 85.3 85.4 87.9 0.1 87.6 88.1 89.9 0.5

Technical result 740 655 586 85 1,919 1,632 1,416 287

Investment income 376 360 90 16 557 616 105 -59

Profit before tax 1,110 1,008 664 102 2,461 2,235 1,503 226

Profit after tax 995 722 483 273 2,092 1,601 1,052 491

Return on equity before tax and discontinued and divested business 38.0 41 34

Return on equity after tax and discontinued and divested business 33.0 29 24

BV 131.0 107 88

In DKKm

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Key ratios

Gross earned premiums, DKKm

3,810

3,975

4,071

3.600

3.850

4.100

Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

Combined ratio in %

85.387.991.1 89.0

85.4

70

85

100

115

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

Claims ratio net of ceded business, in %

68.768.870.7

72.174.0

60

64

68

72

76

80

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

Expense ratio in %

17.1 16.917.2

16.6 16.6

15

16

17

18

19

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

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Gross Premium Drivers- Change from Q3 2005

3.800

3.850

3.900

3.950

4.000

4.050

4.100

Group Q3 05 P&C DK P&C NO Corp. Finland Group Q3 06

DKKm

+2.5%

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Technical Result Drivers- Change from Q3 2005

400

500

600

700

800

Group Q3 05 P&C DK P&C NO Corp. Finland Group Q3 06

DKKm

+13%

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Result distribution

Technical result/geography

276 355

383393

0

200

400

600

800

Q3 2005 Q3 2006

DKKm

Danmark Norge

• Good growth in earnings balanced between business areas

• 33% return on equity after tax

• Strong improvement in Corporate – particularly in Norway

• Large claims of gross YTD DKK 468m against DKK 416m in full year 2005

• Run-offs affect result positively YTD with gross DKK 289m and net DKK 279m

• Higher technical interest rate affects result positively with DKK 202m

Technical result/business areas

248 252

159

277240 231

120

170

220

270

P&E DK P&N NO Industri

DKKm

Q3 2005 Q3 2006

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Performance of claims

Claims ratio, net of ceded business

68.7

72.174.0

78.3

83.6

80.1

60

65

70

75

80

85

2001* 2002* 2003* 2004 2005 Q32006

In %

Claims ratio, net of ceded business

68.767.4

76.474.9

68.868.5

76.077.7

70.770.4

77.0

60

65

70

75

80

Q104

Q204

Q304

Q404

Q105

Q205

Q305

Q405

Q106

Q206

Q306

In %

Run-offs, gross

-262-410

-588

-17

263353 289

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD05

YTD06

DKKm

Run-offs, net

-262

-410-515

-161

181

319 279

-600-500-400-300-200-100

0100200300400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD05

YTD06

DKKm

* Danish GAAP

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Frequency in Denmark

70

80

90

100

110

2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD 05 YTD 06

Index

Auto Building

Frequency in Norway

60

70

80

90

100

110

2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD 05 YTD 06

Index

Auto Building

Average claims in Denmark

80

90

100

110

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD 05 YTD 06

Index

Auto Building

Performance of claims

Average claims in Norway

90

100

110

120

130

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD 05 YTD 06

Index

Auto Building

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Storm and large claims

Storm and weather related claims

84184

73 111

911

93

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD2006

DKKm

Large claims

278

739

236

461416

301

468

0

200

400

600

800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD2005

YTD2006

DKKm

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Outlook for 2006 and 2007- Outlook upgraded for 2006

Medium Term Targets: Combined Ratio: 91-93%Return on Equity (After-tax): 18-20%

Medium Term Targets: Combined Ratio: 91-93%Return on Equity (After-tax): 18-20%

Outlook 2006 upgraded due to an improved investment result and a

satisfactory development in the technical result

Outlook 2006 upgraded due to an improved investment result and a

satisfactory development in the technical result

Outlook 2007: gross premium growth of about 3 percent and a

combined ratio of 90-92 assuming zero run-offs

Outlook 2007: gross premium growth of about 3 percent and a

combined ratio of 90-92 assuming zero run-offs

DKKmRealised 2005

Expected 02.28.2006

Expected 05.11.2006

Outlook 17.08.2006

Outlook 09.11.2006

Favorable scenario

Negative scenario

Premium growth 2.9% 4% 4% 3% 3%

Technical result 2,053 1,800 2,100 2,300 2,450 2,600 2,300

Investment income 888 400 730 350 700

Result before tax and discontinuedbusiness 2,913 2,200 2,800 2,650 3,150 3,300 3,000

Result after tax and discontinued business 2,097 1,650 2,150 2,200 2,650 2,750 2,550

Combined ratio (%) 89 91 89 89 88 87 89

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P&C Denmark

Combined ratio in %

85.289.8

93.290.7 88.3

70

85

100

115

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

Expense ratio in %

17.8 17.7

19.5

17.8 18.2

15

16

17

18

19

20

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

Claims ratio, net of ceded business, in %

75.472.1 71.2

67.470.1

55

60

65

70

75

80

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

• GEP adjusted for discounts up 2,1% to DKK 1,606m

• Unique customer benefit; extended warranty insurance

• Price adjustments in certain auto segments have triggered slight reduction in average premiums

• Rain storm in August amounted to DKK 71m

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P&C Norway

Combined ratio in %

80.783.183.285.3 83.0

50

70

90

110

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

Claims ratio net of ceded business, in %

63.660.0

64.562.762.4

50

55

60

65

70

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

Expense ratio in %

20.8 20.4 20.8 20.7

19.4

18

19

20

21

22

2004 2005 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006

• GEP down 3.2% to DKK 1,142m – adjusted for currency down 2.7%

• Positive development in new sales since June and continued improvement in retention

• Additional customer benefits to multi product customers

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Corporate

Combined ratio, in %

89.792.4

94.6

85.781.8

75

80

85

90

95

100

2004 2005 Q32004

Q32005

Q32006

Claims ratio net of ceded business, in %

71.4

79.375.6

81.082.9

65

70

75

80

85

2004 2005 Q32004

Q32005

Q32006

Expense ratio, in %

10,410,410,1

11,411,7

9

10

11

12

13

2004 2005 Q32004

Q32005

Q32006

• GEP up 7.5% to DKK 1,264m• Positive development in direct sales in DK

and in broker sales in DK and NO • Sales levels are very satisfactory in all

channels • Very low expense level – auto and liability

affect positively

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Finland

• Gross premium income up 42.1% to DKK 54m

• Claims ratio, net of ceded business 67.4 % vs. 76.3%

• Expense ratio 35.3% vs. 36.8%

• Combined ratio 102.7% vs. 113.1%

Financial highlightsFinancial highlights

• First positive technical result with DKK 2m

• New sales continues at very satisfactory levels

• Sales through auto dealers proceeds satisfactorily

Operational highlightsOperational highlights

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Investment income

Asset allocation as of September 30, 2006, in %

79.8

6.313.9

Bonds Equities Real estate

• Investment income before other financial income and expenses of DKK 1,198m YTD

• DKK 36.3b in investment assets at the end of Q3 2006

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Capitalisation - Stable financial platform

4,268

6,010 6,1676,852

9,974

6,018

7,755

8,797

7,571

8,682

10,390

7,885

41.8%51.5% 55.8%

49.7% 52.9%

93.7%

125.3%

148.0%

121.3%128.5%

150.9%

65.9%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2002 2003 2004 2004 IFRS 2005 IFRS Q3 2006

DKKm

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

Capital less dividend Rating capital Solvency ratio S&P CAR

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Creating peace-of-mind

Q&A session

To participate in our conference call at 10:00 CET

Dial in at +353 1 439 0432 or + 45 7026 5040