Q1 2018 - fahddawood.files.wordpress.com€¦ · Our Q1 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai...

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Transcript of Q1 2018 - fahddawood.files.wordpress.com€¦ · Our Q1 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai...

Page 1: Q1 2018 - fahddawood.files.wordpress.com€¦ · Our Q1 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai residential market as well as a sector focus on the commercial property market.
Page 2: Q1 2018 - fahddawood.files.wordpress.com€¦ · Our Q1 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai residential market as well as a sector focus on the commercial property market.

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

Cavendish Maxwell is a highly respected independent firm of chartered surveyors and property consultants, focusing on property services throughout the Middle East and Africa. Established in 2008, Cavendish Maxwell is now one of the most influential property consultancies in the region.

As a fully qualified member firm of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and with extensive knowledge of the region, Cavendish Maxwell has the necessary experience, expertise and insight to deliver property advice of the highest standard. Our reports are used for loan security, audit, insurance reinstatement, dispute resolution, risk management, debt recovery, performance analysis, project financing, development strategy and government initiative implementation.

We provide a comprehensive range of property services across all our departments, each of which is headed by highly skilled, experienced and fully qualified RICS chartered surveyors. Our various teams provide valuation, agency, advisory, management, capital investment, research and building consultancy services across all property types and sectors.

Our Q1 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai residential market as well as a sector focus on the commercial property market. Price movement, rent and yield statistics, residential transactions and upcoming supply of residential properties are provided through Property Monitor, a real estate intelligence platform, powered by Cavendish Maxwell. The report also incorporates the Property Monitor Residential Survey, conducted among partner agents operating within Dubai. The survey showcases how new enquiries, leasing activity and transactions, among other metrics, changed over the previous quarter. It also provides an outlook on the following quarter and predictions by professionals, which are studied against real performance.

CONTENTSFOREWORD

House Price Timeline

Price Performance

Rent Performance

2018 Upcoming Supply Map

Transferred Sales Overview

Property Monitor Residential Survey

Sector Focus - Industrial and Warehousing

Methodology

4

6

8

10

12

13

14

18

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

In Q1 2018, villas/townhouses have traded at around AED 2.7 million and apartment transactions have averaged AED 1.2 million.

Dubai House Price TimelineSales Price (AED) from the period January 2008 to March 2018

4

VILLAS/TOWNHOUSESAED 2.7 Million

Average Sales Price Q1 2018

APARTMENTSAED 1.2 Million

5

4.0M

3.5M

3.0M

2.5M

2.0M

1.5M

1.0

0.5M

Ave

rage

Sal

es P

rice

AED

UAE real estate boom Lehman Brothers

collapse

Early sign oftrouble

Nakheel and DWCannouncing plans fordebt restructuring

Rebound growth for the

generalmarket - oil

prices above $100

Oil price peakat $145/barrel

Oil price collapse

at $32/barrel

Bond issuanceby the DubaiCentral Bank

Oil Price collapse

at $47/barrel

Oil pricederegulation

Central Bankmortgage cap

Expo 2020announcement

New market peak

Russian currency

crisis

Brexit

OPEC limitscrude output

Affordablehousingarrived

Q1-

2008

Q2-

2008

Q3-

2008

Q4-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q2-

2009

Q3-

2009

Q4-

2009

Q1-

2010

Q2-

2010

Q3-

2010

Q4-

2010

Q1-

2011

Q2-

2011

Q3-

2011

Q4-

2011

Q1-

2012

Q2-

2012

Q3-

2012

Q4-

2012

Q1-

2013

Q2-

2013

Q3-

2013

Q4-

2013

Q1-

2014

Q2-

2014

Q3-

2014

Q4-

2014

Q1-

2015

Q2-

2015

Q3-

2015

Q4-

2015

Q1-

2016

Q2-

2016

Q3-

2016

Q4-

2016

Q1-

2017

Q2-

2017

Q3-

2017

Q4-

2017

Q 1

-201

8

Abu Dhabi’s $10 billion loan to

Dubai

Transacted prices for villas/townhouses have settled above the 2017 average during Q1 2018, which is mainly due to limited lower priced inventory entering the market this year compared to the launches in the first half of 2017. Meanwhile, trading prices for apartments continue to shift towards the lower end of the price band, averaging AED 1.2 million in Q1 2018. The middle-income population (AED 15,000 to 25,000 per month income bracket) has been the key target segment for the majority of ‘affordable housing’ apartment launches by developers in recent months. The majority of this new inventory offers smaller unit sizes to keep prices attractive, along with providing incentives, such as Dubai Land Department (DLD) fee waivers and payment plans with limited commitment (20-30%) during pre-construction period and extended post-handover payment options.

Note: Dubai House Price Timeline tracks residential property transactions from Dubai Land Department (off-plan and secondary) to derive monthly and quarterly average transacted prices for apartments and villas/townhouses.

Source: Property Monitor

HOUSE PRICETIMELINE

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

PRICEPERFORMANCE According to the Property Monitor Index,

apartment and villa/townhouse prices have registered 12 month declines of 2% on average.

Palm Jumierah

The Views

Jumeirah Village Circle

Uptown Motor City

The GreensDIFC

International City (Clusters)

Dubai Silicon OasisDubai Sports City

IMPZ

Jumeirah Village Triangle

Al Furjan

Discovery Garden

Dubai Marina

Jumeirah Beach Residence

Jumeirah Lakes Towers

Downtown Burj Khalifa

Business Bay2,175 sq ft

1,566

819

848

1,328

1,796

604

860957

841

1,085

904

817

1,631

1,639

1,204

2,394

1,480

International City (Clusters)

Discovery Gardens

Jumeirah Village Circle

IMPZ

Uptown Motor City

Dubai Silicon Oasis

Al Furjan

Dubai Sports City

Jumeirah Village Triangle

Jumeirah Lakes Towers

The Greens

Business Bay

Dubai Marina

The Views

Jumeirah Beach Residence

DIFC

Palm Jumeirah

Downtown Burj Khalifa

0 -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0%

-0.3-0.6

-0.3-0.4

-1.0-0.1

-0.2

-2.4-2.2

-0.3-2.2

-1.5

-1.3-1.2

-1.3-1.3

-1.4-0.4

-1.5

-2.3

-1.7-0.8

-1.0-1.9

-1.6

-2.4

-2.4-1.6

-2.5

-0.1

-0.7-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1-0.7

-0.3-0.7

-0.1-0.2

-0.2-0.8

-0.6-0.7

-0.9

Apartment Change in Price (%)

Average Price per Sq ft (AED) Average Price per Sq ft (AED)

Source: Property Monitor

-0.2-0.1

-0.1-1.7

-1.4

Price movement in the last 12 months has varied not only between communities but also among different buildings within the same community, thus reflecting greater differentiation in how available properties are now trading. This differentiation is expected to continue as buyers have an increasing supply base to choose from and property fundamentals such as developer track record, proximity to social and public infrastructure, ease of access, maintenance, among other factors will drive price movement.

Green Community Motor City

Arabian Ranches

Victory Heights

Cedre Villas Silicon Oasis

Jumeirah Village Triangle

The Springs

Jumeirah Golf Estates

The Meadows

The Lakes

Jumeirah Park

Jumeirah Islands

Garden Homes Palm Jumeirah

Al Furjan Villas

978

1,188

1,195

910

939

1,035

1,203

1,334

1,368

1,060

1,488

2,653

837

-0.3-0.8

Villa/Townhouse Change in Price (%)

* Average price per sq ft as of March 2018 Source: Property Monitor

-0.8-1.7

Al Furjan Villas

Cedre Villas Silicon Oasis

Jumeirah Village Triangle

Green Community Motor City

The Springs

Jumeirah Park

Arabian Ranches

Victory Heights

The Meadows

The Lakes

Jumeirah Golf Estates

Jumeirah Islands

Garden Homes Palm Jumeirah

-0.4

-0.3

-1.3

0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0%

QoQ% change Q4 2017 - Q1 2018

12 month % change Q1 2017 - Q1 2018

QoQ% change Q4 2017 - Q1 2018

12 month % change Q1 2017 - Q1 2018

76

-1.5

-3.0-1.7

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

RENTPERFORMANCE

Rent declines for residential properties in Dubai have been more pronounced than sales price declines in Q1 2018.

Jumeirah GolfEstates

The SpringsJumeirahPark

Dubai MarinaThe Lakes

Al Furjan Villas

Jumeirah Beach ResidenceThe Greens

Discovery Garden

AED 134,078

AED 133,465

AED 99,704

AED 120,469

AED 72,024

AED 73,941

Villa/TownhouseApartment

AED 40,700

AED 55,000

-5.2

-3.1

-3.1 The Views

AED 126,737

AED 92,370

AED 66,420

-3.3

AED 121,277

AED 79,000

AED 59,575

-4.6

AED 403,416

AED 197,600

AED 277,201

AED 182,442

AED 157,443

-2.8

-6.4

The MeadowsAED 274,804

AED 218,760

AED 182,358

-4.0

AED 60,402

AED 81,893

AED 103,597

Jumeirah Lakes Towers -3.7

AED 314,520

AED 266,550

AED 249,600

-5.0

AED 176,344

AED 156,840

-5.8

AED 184,608

AED 226,739

AED 240,488

-4.9

JumeirahIsland

AED 271,544

AED 356,800

-4.3Studio Rent 3 BR Rent

1 BR Rent 4 BR Rent

2 BR Rent 5 BR Rent

12 month % change 12 month % change

Declines were more pronounced in Business Bay, Discovery Gardens, International City (Clusters), Jumeirah Golf Estates, The Springs and Al Furjan Villas averaging 12 month declines of more than 5%. Rent declines are expected to continue during the second quarter of 2018, with new handovers planned in both freehold and leasehold communities across Dubai. The pressure on housing allowances has also impacted rental market performance and the pool of tenants at the higher end of the spectrum continues to shrink. It has been a tenant-led market and the increasing stock levels each quarter have provided ample opportunities for negotiation on base rents as well as payment terms such as number of cheques. Declines will be more pronounced in areas with increasing supply and those located away from central business districts and public infrastructure. Additionally, building maintenance and quality remain significant drivers of occupancy levels, thus impacting net realised yields on investment properties.

* Data as of March 2018

Source: Property Monitor

AED 74,000

AED 102,835

AED 176,333

Victory Heights

Arabian Ranches

International CityBusiness Bay

Dubai Sports City

Downtown Burj Khalifa

Motor City

DIFC-3.5

AED 32,046

AED 116,188

AED 293,186

AED 74,005

AED 41,925

AED 71,437

AED 191,400

AED 85,000

AED 56,880

AED 45,848

AED 130,500

AED 84,271

AED 111,337

AED 151,919

AED 55,300

AED 77,256

AED 114,480

-4.0

-3.2

-5.0

-3.3

-3.6

-5.0

AED 292,800

AED 253,540

AED 187,318

-3.9

98

According to the Property Monitor’s database of rental contracts, the majority of the rental agreements for residential properties in Q1 2018 were in one cheque (50% of total), followed by 24% rent payments made through four cheques. The top areas where four cheques were prominent during Q1 2018 include Mirdif, Emirates Living, Arabian Ranches, Jumeirah Village Triangle and Jumeirah Park. The trend has reversed since Q1 2017 where the majority of rent contracts (43% of total) were four cheque payments. This is mainly because some tenants are negotiating larger discounts on base rents and agreeing to make one cheque payments instead of multiple payments.

Rental Cheques For Apartments and Villas/Townhouses

© Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com © Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.me

Annual Rent by Bedroom Level

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

2018 UPCOMINGSUPPLY MAP

VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES17%

APARTMENTS83%

Approximately 3,800 residential units have been handed over across Dubai in Q1 2018.

The majority of handovers during the first quarter of 2018 were in International City, Jumeirah Village Circle and Dubai Studio City, with more than 250 units being handed over in each location. More than 92% of the handed over units were apartments. For the remainder of the year, the majority of upcoming supply is concentrated in Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle and Town Square, all of which have more than 2,000 units scheduled for handover before the year end. Of the total scheduled handovers due for the remaining three quarters, approximately 46% of the upcoming supply is expected to be handed over during Q2.

Increasing handovers will continue to impact rents in most locations across Dubai as tenants have more choice. This will also impact occupancies in existing stock and should be factored into net yield estimations for the forthcoming period.

© Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com10

PROPERTY MONITOR

SUPPLY TRACKERSupply scheduled to be completed by end of 2018

Source: Property Monitor

0 - 200 200 - 400 400 - 600 600 - 1,000

1,000 - 1,500 1,500 - 2,000 2,000+

© Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.me 11

Al Sufouh

Jumeirah Golf Estates

Jumeirah Village Triangle

JumeirahVillageCircle

Dubai Investments Park

Dubai South

Al Furjan

Dubai Marina

Jumeirah LakesTowers

The Hills

Palm Jumeirah Mohammed bin Rashid City

Dubai Land

Akoya Oxygen

Dubai SiliconOasis

International City

Mirdif

Deira

The Lagoons

Meydan City

Nad Al Sheba

Al Barsha

Dubai Science

Park

DamacHills Mudon

TownSquare

ReemMira

Arabian RanchesMotor CityDubai

Sports CityIMPZ

Business Bay

Jumeirah DowntownBurj Khalifa

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

No.

of T

rans

fers

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

No.

of T

rans

fers

TRANSFERRED SALESOVERVIEW

Bus

ines

sB

ay

Tow

nSq

uare

Sere

na

Dub

ai

Mar

ina

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

No.

of T

rans

fers

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

No.

of T

rans

fers

Emira

tes

Livi

ng

Moh

amm

ed B

in

Rash

id C

ity

Vill

anov

a

Dub

ai

Spor

ts C

ity

Tow

n Sq

uare

Jum

eira

hV

illag

e C

ircle

Moh

amm

ed B

in

Rash

id C

ity

Jum

eira

hLa

kes

Tow

ers

Ara

bian

Ra

nche

s

Al F

urja

n

Jum

eira

hV

illag

e C

ircle

The

Lago

ons

Palm

Jum

eira

h

Reem

(Mira

)

Business Bay, Mohammed Bin Rashid City and Jumeirah Village Circle dominated the off-plan transfers tally during the first quarter of the year. Meanwhile, traditional favourites including Dubai Marina and International City led the secondary market apartment transfers, along with Dubai Sports City, which accounted for 13% of the total apartment resale transfers during Q1 2018. Secondary market transfers among villas/townhouses surpassed the off-plan transfers in this category in Q1 2018, led by Emirates Living and Arabian Ranches, which together accounted for more than 42% of the total villa/townhouse secondary market transfers registered during the first quarter.

VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES622

Off-plan Transfers

Off-plan Transfers

Secondary Market Transfers

Secondary Market Transfers

APARTMENTS5,698

Top Five Locations for Apartment Transfers in Q1 2018

Transferred Sales Q1 2018

Top Five Locations for Villa/Townhouse Transfers in Q1 2018Source: Property Monitor

Source: Property Monitor

616

573

424

257212

311

274

87

33

20

12 10

100

59

46

2722

216

120 115

SURVEYRESULTS

vs Apartment and villa/townhouse rents declined by 1% QoQ though 12 month decline is around 4% on average.

According to data from real estate agencies, transaction levels for Q1 2018 are higher than Q4 2017.

Reality

Apartment and villa/townhouse prices have remained largely stable in Q1 2018 with a 12 month decline of 2% on average.

The majority of agents surveyed had predicted apartment and villa/townhouse prices to decrease by up to 5% in Q1 2018.

The majority of agents had predicted that apartment and villa/townhouse rents would decrease by up to 5% in Q1 2018.

The majority of agents had predicted new buyer enquiries, seller instructions and agreed sales would increase in Q1 2018.

Predictions

Q2 2018 Price Outlook

Looking Forward – Q2 2018

Looking Back – Q1 2018

Q2 2018 Rent Outlook

ApartmentsPercentage of agents who predict apartment prices will:

ApartmentsPercentage of agents who predict apartment rents will:

Villas/TownhousesPercentage of agents who predict villa/townhouse prices will:

Villas/TownhousesPercentage of agents who predict villa/townhouse rents will:

Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5%

Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5%

Source: Property Monitor and Residential Survey

Source: Property Monitor and Residential Survey

26.6%

23.4%

1.6%

44.0%

4.3%

0%

23.4%

46.2%

26.1%

4.3%

30.5%23.9%

0.5%

38.6%

6.5%

28.3%21.7%

0.5%

45.7%

3.8%

Q2 2018 Transaction Outlook

Percentage of agents who predict new buyer enquiries will:

Percentage of agents who predict new seller instructions will:

Percentage of agents who predict agreed sales will:

Decrease Increase Remain the same

Decrease Increase Remain the same

Decrease Increase Remain the same

35.4%

22.2%

28.8%

55.6%

15.7%

25.3%

38.9%

35.9%

42.4%

Inte

rnat

iona

lC

ity

Reem

(Mira

)

Off-plan transfers accounted for 61% of the total transfers in Q1 2018.

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

ENQUIRYSIZE

REQUIREMENTS(SQ FT)

16%

20%

21%

22%

8%

5%

8%

0 - 5,000

5,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 25,000

25,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 75,000

75,001 - 100,000

100,000+38%

ENQUIRYLOCATION

REQUIREMENTS

19%28%

6%

2%

5%

1%

Jebel Ali Free Zone

Dubai Industrial

Park

Al Quoz

Ras Al Khor

Jebel Ali Industrial

International Media Production Zone Dubai South

Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research

30%

ENQUIRYSECTOR

REQUIREMENTS

9%

16%

9%

9%

6%

6%

2%

2%

11%

GeneralTrading

L&D

Manufacture

Engineering

FoodProduction

ColdStrore

Services

Oil and Gas

Commodities

Other

SECTOR FOCUSINDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSING2017 witnessed a continuation of trends from the previous 18 months with a difficult and competitive market place. Enquiry levels picked up as the year progressed and rallied strongly in the final quarter, after a quiet summer period. The vast majority of enquiries were for the small to mid-sized sector of the market with requirements for 50,000 sq ft or less accounting for 79% of demand*. There were also a number of significant occupier requirements above this level, including the big box market of more than 100,000 sq ft*. Many of these requirements have remained unsatisfied due to the lack of good quality stock available in the market, which has led to more occupiers exploring the Build to Suit (BTS) route, therefore delaying take up.

There has been an increase in vacancy levels with many occupiers feeling financial pressure due to the current economic climate. Some businesses within certain industries, such as oil, gas and commodities, are now looking to rationalise their real estate holdings in a bid to reduce overheads and are therefore looking to either sell facilities which are considered excess to requirement or downsize operations. This is a trend which is even more apparent in the Free Zones where businesses are also facing increases in their land rents at rent review or lease renewal. In addition to this there are a number of speculative developers bringing new supply to the market leading to an unprecedented level of disposal instructions.

Buyers/tenants are being more cautious and carrying out further due diligence on their available options prior to making real estate related decisions. This is prolonging the timeframe to conclude a transaction but is also characteristic of a more mature and stable market.

There is opportunity for developers/land owners to build European style warehouses especially in Non-Free Zone locations.

Prime yields now stand a little under 8.5% which is a high yield compared to European markets.

There has been an increase in requirements from investors looking for institutional grade assets with long term income.

There remains an imbalance between landlord/seller expectations and the market prices which is stalling the market. If landlords are willing to be flexible, it is likely they could attract and secure occupiers to their warehouses.

New funds entering the market are both listed and non-listed, as well as increased activity from high net worth individuals.

The introduction of VAT which applies to the sale and lease transactions of commercial property, in addition to increasing regulations, will cause a period of readjustment in the market conditions.

There is a misalignment in seller and buyers pricing aspirations. Yields sought by sellers are too low and not reflective of the market, either because of the poor quality of the underlying asset, lack of growth potential or security of income.

Some businesses within the oil, gas and commodities sectors struggle, often looking to rationalise real estate holdings in a bid to reduce operational costs. However, it is likely that the increase in oil price toward the US $70 a barrel mark will positively impact these sectors and encourage more activity and/or investment.

Problems remain with land tenure; almost all warehouse and industrial land is leasehold. The biggest restraint restricting investment flow is short land leases and land lease rents. The rise in the underlying ground rents have resulted in investors seeking higher gross occupational rents, but with occupiers unable to pay these, it is often a case that transactions will not be financially viable.

Onerous ground lease terms and significant increases in ground rents, are pinching occupiers bottom lines at a time when there has been much contraction across a range of industries. Master industrial authorities should keep a watchful eye on such strategies to ensure they don’t lose tenants.

There are very few investment grade commercial options available to investors which might suggest why yields across asset sectors do not fluctuate significantly as one would expect.

Occupiers with obsolete buildings, or those unwilling to sign long term occupational leases or with weaker balance sheets, can expect double digit yields.

Given the weight of money chasing transactions, international or strong regional tenants who can sign long leases could potentially achieve yields of less than 8%.

Going into 2018, prime yields are expected to remain stable with more opportunities for sale and leaseback deals as end users seek to free up liquidity which is otherwise tied up in real estate.

The key driving forces in the market throughout 2016-2017 were from the logistics and distribution sectors and the traders of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and we expect this trend to continue throughout the course of 2018. This demand is not being met by the specification of existing warehouses, whereby occupiers in such industries prefer more modern European specification distribution warehouses which are not as readily available in the region. However we are seeing a shift in developers being more conscious towards the needs of the end users reflected in the new products they are bringing to the market in locations such as in Jebel Ali Free Zone and National Industries Park.

Among the influential factors of 2017 affecting take up levels was the disparity between landlord/seller pricing expectations and what the market is willing to pay; often with asking prices 25-30% above market levels. We did witness deals concluding where landlords and sellers were able to realign expectations with the market which is encouraging. However, in still too many cases, there was little room for negotiation, with some landlords and sellers unwilling to change their pricing aspirations which have likely resulted in their properties continuing to sit vacant. When paired with increasing holding costs in the form of land rent and maintenance, this could be a costly and risky strategy.

Occupiers remained cautious of the market since the drop in the oil price in 2014, however there was an improvement at the end of 2017 as oil prices recovered above the US $60 mark. Although there has been wider geopolitical instability from events such as the Brexit referendum, the uncertainty attached to a Trump Administration and more locally the break down in relations between Qatar and the rest of the GCC, occupiers are starting to factor in and account for external market forces within their decision making strategies similarly to more developed markets.

MARKET CHALLENGESAND OPPORTUNITIES

INDUSTRIALINVESTMENT

21

21

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

6789

*This excludes buildings which are incomplete and specialist units such as fitted cold stores.*The figures reported are exclusive of master authority sub-leasing fees which vary between 15 - 30%

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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

Loca

tions

Jebel Ali Free Zone

Dubai Investments Park

Al Quoz

National Industries Park

Dubai Industrial Park

Whilst we expect transaction levels to remain below 2015 take up, strong enquiry levels since the start of 2018 suggest there will be a modest increase from 2017. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that occupiers will continue to carry out greater due diligence and analysis, which will impact decision making times and there will be a continuing differentiation in pricing expectations between sellers and buyers.

There will continue to be many properties sitting stagnant on the market however if landlords and sellers are willing to adjust to the current market levels, then they should secure occupiers and buyers. We anticipate an increase in the level of occupiers looking to relocate to other emirates in a bid to reduce occupational costs incurred where they are more responsive to the challenges facing many businesses. However, the additional benefits of working within Dubai such as a better legislative and legal framework, more developed infrastructure, working in closer conjunction with suppliers and consumers and easier access to a greater labour force will continue to outweigh any occupational cost savings which may be achievable in other emirates.

Due to the low levels of good quality supply in the well-established areas such as Dubai Investments Park and Al Quoz, which have no development land remaining, it is likely that interest in the areas around Al Maktoum International Airport, such as Dubai South and Dubai Industrial Park will increase as occupiers are forced to look at alternative locations to find suitable properties. Prices in free zones are expected to decline as increased supply and high vacancy levels, coupled with rising land rents, continue to compress capital values. Nevertheless, with an increase in the oil price, Expo 2020, further capital investment in the expansion of Jebel Ali Port on the horizon and the overall maturing of the market, the general sentiment is more positive than it has been for the past couple of years.

2018 MARKETOUTLOOK

INDUSTRIAL PROPERTYSUPPLY (PER SQ FT)

Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research

Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research

Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research

ASKING SALE PRICES

ASKING LEASE PRICESA

vera

ge

pric

e A

ED /

sq

ft

Jebel Ali Free Zone Dubai Investments Park Al Quoz National Industries Park Dubai Industrial Park

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Ave

rag

e p

rice

AED

/ s

q ft

Loca

tions

Jebel Ali Free Zone

Dubai Investments Park

Al Quoz

National Industries Park

Dubai Industrial Park

359.5

391.5

231

273

248.5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

70

27.5

33

35

30

27

(AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft)

(AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft)

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© Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com © Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.me 1918

Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report

PEOPLE

Nigel Armstrong FMAATChief Executive Officer

E: [email protected]

Jay Grant MSc IRRV (Hons)Founder and Chairman

E: [email protected]

Miles Phillips BSc (Hons) MRICS Senior Partner

E: [email protected]

Paul McCambridgeHead of SalesProperty Monitor

E: [email protected]

Sofia Underabi MRICS AAPIPartnerHead of Residential Valuation

E: [email protected]

Andrew Love MA (Hons) MRICSPartnerHead of Investment and Commercial Agency

E: [email protected]

Manika Dhama BA (Hons), MBASenior ConsultantStrategic Consulting and Research

E: [email protected]

METHODOLOGYSale prices and rents are derived from Property Monitor (www.propertymonitor.me), a real estate intelligence platform established by Cavendish Maxwell in 2014. Property Monitor provides real-time, market-wide transactional data and trends. Working with governments, agencies, banks, developers and corporate investors, it provides deeper insight into real estate advisory, investment, and lending activities. The average sales price per sq ft is based on the Property Monitor Index which incorporates signed contracts, registered transactions, valuations and listings verified by Cavendish Maxwell’s market leading valuation department.

Property Monitor Residential Survey is a quarterly study of agent opinion designed to identify residential market sentiment. This research highlights how new enquiries, leasing activity and transactions, among other metrics, changed from quarter to quarter with agent predictions compared to actual real market performance.

Supply projections for residential projects are based on the Property Monitor Supply Tracker which tracks supply in real time, regular tracking of construction projects, new launches and delays. This is achieved through site inspections as well as regular feedback from developers, contractors, Cavendish Maxwell’s building consultancy team and related government entities. Indices and average prices are produced using Property Monitor Index, which was introduced in January 2014. The data is drawn from various data sources. Some figures are recalibrated each month and the data is continuously updated fromgovernment entities, which may result in revisions tohistorical data.

By working with our strategic consulting team, our clients immediately gain access to our knowledge base, technical expertise and highly skilled individuals, making us the development partner of choice. Our rigorous analysis, research and unique access to Property Monitor allows our team to produce reports and advice with a refreshingly different vision leading to creative and effective strategies.

We have advised on schemes with a gross development value of over AED 3 billion in the last year. Our reports are used internally for business planning purposes and to satisfy the criteria of external financiers and auditors.

Our name is trusted by all major banks across the UAE, supported by our presence on over 40 bank panels across the region.

40BANKS

Our documents and advice meet banking and audit criteria, proven by our presence on over 40 bank panels

across the Middle East.

STRATEGICCONSULTINGAND RESEARCH

MarketResearch

AssetManagement

Due Diligence for Land Acquisition

PropertyData

FeasibilityStudies

Advisory Services

Highest andBest Use Studies

BuyerProfiling

Joint Venture Structuring

SiteAnalysis

Education Advisoryand Valuation

KEYSERVICES

18 © Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com © Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.me

James Cresswell BA (Hons) MSc MRICSPartnerHead of Commercial Valuation

E: [email protected]

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