Q1 2018 - fahddawood.files.wordpress.com€¦ · Our Q1 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai...
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
Cavendish Maxwell is a highly respected independent firm of chartered surveyors and property consultants, focusing on property services throughout the Middle East and Africa. Established in 2008, Cavendish Maxwell is now one of the most influential property consultancies in the region.
As a fully qualified member firm of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and with extensive knowledge of the region, Cavendish Maxwell has the necessary experience, expertise and insight to deliver property advice of the highest standard. Our reports are used for loan security, audit, insurance reinstatement, dispute resolution, risk management, debt recovery, performance analysis, project financing, development strategy and government initiative implementation.
We provide a comprehensive range of property services across all our departments, each of which is headed by highly skilled, experienced and fully qualified RICS chartered surveyors. Our various teams provide valuation, agency, advisory, management, capital investment, research and building consultancy services across all property types and sectors.
Our Q1 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai residential market as well as a sector focus on the commercial property market. Price movement, rent and yield statistics, residential transactions and upcoming supply of residential properties are provided through Property Monitor, a real estate intelligence platform, powered by Cavendish Maxwell. The report also incorporates the Property Monitor Residential Survey, conducted among partner agents operating within Dubai. The survey showcases how new enquiries, leasing activity and transactions, among other metrics, changed over the previous quarter. It also provides an outlook on the following quarter and predictions by professionals, which are studied against real performance.
CONTENTSFOREWORD
House Price Timeline
Price Performance
Rent Performance
2018 Upcoming Supply Map
Transferred Sales Overview
Property Monitor Residential Survey
Sector Focus - Industrial and Warehousing
Methodology
4
6
8
10
12
13
14
18
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
In Q1 2018, villas/townhouses have traded at around AED 2.7 million and apartment transactions have averaged AED 1.2 million.
Dubai House Price TimelineSales Price (AED) from the period January 2008 to March 2018
4
VILLAS/TOWNHOUSESAED 2.7 Million
Average Sales Price Q1 2018
APARTMENTSAED 1.2 Million
5
4.0M
3.5M
3.0M
2.5M
2.0M
1.5M
1.0
0.5M
Ave
rage
Sal
es P
rice
AED
UAE real estate boom Lehman Brothers
collapse
Early sign oftrouble
Nakheel and DWCannouncing plans fordebt restructuring
Rebound growth for the
generalmarket - oil
prices above $100
Oil price peakat $145/barrel
Oil price collapse
at $32/barrel
Bond issuanceby the DubaiCentral Bank
Oil Price collapse
at $47/barrel
Oil pricederegulation
Central Bankmortgage cap
Expo 2020announcement
New market peak
Russian currency
crisis
Brexit
OPEC limitscrude output
Affordablehousingarrived
Q1-
2008
Q2-
2008
Q3-
2008
Q4-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q2-
2009
Q3-
2009
Q4-
2009
Q1-
2010
Q2-
2010
Q3-
2010
Q4-
2010
Q1-
2011
Q2-
2011
Q3-
2011
Q4-
2011
Q1-
2012
Q2-
2012
Q3-
2012
Q4-
2012
Q1-
2013
Q2-
2013
Q3-
2013
Q4-
2013
Q1-
2014
Q2-
2014
Q3-
2014
Q4-
2014
Q1-
2015
Q2-
2015
Q3-
2015
Q4-
2015
Q1-
2016
Q2-
2016
Q3-
2016
Q4-
2016
Q1-
2017
Q2-
2017
Q3-
2017
Q4-
2017
Q 1
-201
8
Abu Dhabi’s $10 billion loan to
Dubai
Transacted prices for villas/townhouses have settled above the 2017 average during Q1 2018, which is mainly due to limited lower priced inventory entering the market this year compared to the launches in the first half of 2017. Meanwhile, trading prices for apartments continue to shift towards the lower end of the price band, averaging AED 1.2 million in Q1 2018. The middle-income population (AED 15,000 to 25,000 per month income bracket) has been the key target segment for the majority of ‘affordable housing’ apartment launches by developers in recent months. The majority of this new inventory offers smaller unit sizes to keep prices attractive, along with providing incentives, such as Dubai Land Department (DLD) fee waivers and payment plans with limited commitment (20-30%) during pre-construction period and extended post-handover payment options.
Note: Dubai House Price Timeline tracks residential property transactions from Dubai Land Department (off-plan and secondary) to derive monthly and quarterly average transacted prices for apartments and villas/townhouses.
Source: Property Monitor
HOUSE PRICETIMELINE
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
PRICEPERFORMANCE According to the Property Monitor Index,
apartment and villa/townhouse prices have registered 12 month declines of 2% on average.
Palm Jumierah
The Views
Jumeirah Village Circle
Uptown Motor City
The GreensDIFC
International City (Clusters)
Dubai Silicon OasisDubai Sports City
IMPZ
Jumeirah Village Triangle
Al Furjan
Discovery Garden
Dubai Marina
Jumeirah Beach Residence
Jumeirah Lakes Towers
Downtown Burj Khalifa
Business Bay2,175 sq ft
1,566
819
848
1,328
1,796
604
860957
841
1,085
904
817
1,631
1,639
1,204
2,394
1,480
International City (Clusters)
Discovery Gardens
Jumeirah Village Circle
IMPZ
Uptown Motor City
Dubai Silicon Oasis
Al Furjan
Dubai Sports City
Jumeirah Village Triangle
Jumeirah Lakes Towers
The Greens
Business Bay
Dubai Marina
The Views
Jumeirah Beach Residence
DIFC
Palm Jumeirah
Downtown Burj Khalifa
0 -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0%
-0.3-0.6
-0.3-0.4
-1.0-0.1
-0.2
-2.4-2.2
-0.3-2.2
-1.5
-1.3-1.2
-1.3-1.3
-1.4-0.4
-1.5
-2.3
-1.7-0.8
-1.0-1.9
-1.6
-2.4
-2.4-1.6
-2.5
-0.1
-0.7-0.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1-0.7
-0.3-0.7
-0.1-0.2
-0.2-0.8
-0.6-0.7
-0.9
Apartment Change in Price (%)
Average Price per Sq ft (AED) Average Price per Sq ft (AED)
Source: Property Monitor
-0.2-0.1
-0.1-1.7
-1.4
Price movement in the last 12 months has varied not only between communities but also among different buildings within the same community, thus reflecting greater differentiation in how available properties are now trading. This differentiation is expected to continue as buyers have an increasing supply base to choose from and property fundamentals such as developer track record, proximity to social and public infrastructure, ease of access, maintenance, among other factors will drive price movement.
Green Community Motor City
Arabian Ranches
Victory Heights
Cedre Villas Silicon Oasis
Jumeirah Village Triangle
The Springs
Jumeirah Golf Estates
The Meadows
The Lakes
Jumeirah Park
Jumeirah Islands
Garden Homes Palm Jumeirah
Al Furjan Villas
978
1,188
1,195
910
939
1,035
1,203
1,334
1,368
1,060
1,488
2,653
837
-0.3-0.8
Villa/Townhouse Change in Price (%)
* Average price per sq ft as of March 2018 Source: Property Monitor
-0.8-1.7
Al Furjan Villas
Cedre Villas Silicon Oasis
Jumeirah Village Triangle
Green Community Motor City
The Springs
Jumeirah Park
Arabian Ranches
Victory Heights
The Meadows
The Lakes
Jumeirah Golf Estates
Jumeirah Islands
Garden Homes Palm Jumeirah
-0.4
-0.3
-1.3
0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0%
QoQ% change Q4 2017 - Q1 2018
12 month % change Q1 2017 - Q1 2018
QoQ% change Q4 2017 - Q1 2018
12 month % change Q1 2017 - Q1 2018
76
-1.5
-3.0-1.7
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
RENTPERFORMANCE
Rent declines for residential properties in Dubai have been more pronounced than sales price declines in Q1 2018.
Jumeirah GolfEstates
The SpringsJumeirahPark
Dubai MarinaThe Lakes
Al Furjan Villas
Jumeirah Beach ResidenceThe Greens
Discovery Garden
AED 134,078
AED 133,465
AED 99,704
AED 120,469
AED 72,024
AED 73,941
Villa/TownhouseApartment
AED 40,700
AED 55,000
-5.2
-3.1
-3.1 The Views
AED 126,737
AED 92,370
AED 66,420
-3.3
AED 121,277
AED 79,000
AED 59,575
-4.6
AED 403,416
AED 197,600
AED 277,201
AED 182,442
AED 157,443
-2.8
-6.4
The MeadowsAED 274,804
AED 218,760
AED 182,358
-4.0
AED 60,402
AED 81,893
AED 103,597
Jumeirah Lakes Towers -3.7
AED 314,520
AED 266,550
AED 249,600
-5.0
AED 176,344
AED 156,840
-5.8
AED 184,608
AED 226,739
AED 240,488
-4.9
JumeirahIsland
AED 271,544
AED 356,800
-4.3Studio Rent 3 BR Rent
1 BR Rent 4 BR Rent
2 BR Rent 5 BR Rent
12 month % change 12 month % change
Declines were more pronounced in Business Bay, Discovery Gardens, International City (Clusters), Jumeirah Golf Estates, The Springs and Al Furjan Villas averaging 12 month declines of more than 5%. Rent declines are expected to continue during the second quarter of 2018, with new handovers planned in both freehold and leasehold communities across Dubai. The pressure on housing allowances has also impacted rental market performance and the pool of tenants at the higher end of the spectrum continues to shrink. It has been a tenant-led market and the increasing stock levels each quarter have provided ample opportunities for negotiation on base rents as well as payment terms such as number of cheques. Declines will be more pronounced in areas with increasing supply and those located away from central business districts and public infrastructure. Additionally, building maintenance and quality remain significant drivers of occupancy levels, thus impacting net realised yields on investment properties.
* Data as of March 2018
Source: Property Monitor
AED 74,000
AED 102,835
AED 176,333
Victory Heights
Arabian Ranches
International CityBusiness Bay
Dubai Sports City
Downtown Burj Khalifa
Motor City
DIFC-3.5
AED 32,046
AED 116,188
AED 293,186
AED 74,005
AED 41,925
AED 71,437
AED 191,400
AED 85,000
AED 56,880
AED 45,848
AED 130,500
AED 84,271
AED 111,337
AED 151,919
AED 55,300
AED 77,256
AED 114,480
-4.0
-3.2
-5.0
-3.3
-3.6
-5.0
AED 292,800
AED 253,540
AED 187,318
-3.9
98
According to the Property Monitor’s database of rental contracts, the majority of the rental agreements for residential properties in Q1 2018 were in one cheque (50% of total), followed by 24% rent payments made through four cheques. The top areas where four cheques were prominent during Q1 2018 include Mirdif, Emirates Living, Arabian Ranches, Jumeirah Village Triangle and Jumeirah Park. The trend has reversed since Q1 2017 where the majority of rent contracts (43% of total) were four cheque payments. This is mainly because some tenants are negotiating larger discounts on base rents and agreeing to make one cheque payments instead of multiple payments.
Rental Cheques For Apartments and Villas/Townhouses
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Annual Rent by Bedroom Level
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
2018 UPCOMINGSUPPLY MAP
VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES17%
APARTMENTS83%
Approximately 3,800 residential units have been handed over across Dubai in Q1 2018.
The majority of handovers during the first quarter of 2018 were in International City, Jumeirah Village Circle and Dubai Studio City, with more than 250 units being handed over in each location. More than 92% of the handed over units were apartments. For the remainder of the year, the majority of upcoming supply is concentrated in Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle and Town Square, all of which have more than 2,000 units scheduled for handover before the year end. Of the total scheduled handovers due for the remaining three quarters, approximately 46% of the upcoming supply is expected to be handed over during Q2.
Increasing handovers will continue to impact rents in most locations across Dubai as tenants have more choice. This will also impact occupancies in existing stock and should be factored into net yield estimations for the forthcoming period.
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PROPERTY MONITOR
SUPPLY TRACKERSupply scheduled to be completed by end of 2018
Source: Property Monitor
0 - 200 200 - 400 400 - 600 600 - 1,000
1,000 - 1,500 1,500 - 2,000 2,000+
© Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.me 11
Al Sufouh
Jumeirah Golf Estates
Jumeirah Village Triangle
JumeirahVillageCircle
Dubai Investments Park
Dubai South
Al Furjan
Dubai Marina
Jumeirah LakesTowers
The Hills
Palm Jumeirah Mohammed bin Rashid City
Dubai Land
Akoya Oxygen
Dubai SiliconOasis
International City
Mirdif
Deira
The Lagoons
Meydan City
Nad Al Sheba
Al Barsha
Dubai Science
Park
DamacHills Mudon
TownSquare
ReemMira
Arabian RanchesMotor CityDubai
Sports CityIMPZ
Business Bay
Jumeirah DowntownBurj Khalifa
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
No.
of T
rans
fers
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
No.
of T
rans
fers
TRANSFERRED SALESOVERVIEW
Bus
ines
sB
ay
Tow
nSq
uare
Sere
na
Dub
ai
Mar
ina
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
No.
of T
rans
fers
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
No.
of T
rans
fers
Emira
tes
Livi
ng
Moh
amm
ed B
in
Rash
id C
ity
Vill
anov
a
Dub
ai
Spor
ts C
ity
Tow
n Sq
uare
Jum
eira
hV
illag
e C
ircle
Moh
amm
ed B
in
Rash
id C
ity
Jum
eira
hLa
kes
Tow
ers
Ara
bian
Ra
nche
s
Al F
urja
n
Jum
eira
hV
illag
e C
ircle
The
Lago
ons
Palm
Jum
eira
h
Reem
(Mira
)
Business Bay, Mohammed Bin Rashid City and Jumeirah Village Circle dominated the off-plan transfers tally during the first quarter of the year. Meanwhile, traditional favourites including Dubai Marina and International City led the secondary market apartment transfers, along with Dubai Sports City, which accounted for 13% of the total apartment resale transfers during Q1 2018. Secondary market transfers among villas/townhouses surpassed the off-plan transfers in this category in Q1 2018, led by Emirates Living and Arabian Ranches, which together accounted for more than 42% of the total villa/townhouse secondary market transfers registered during the first quarter.
VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES622
Off-plan Transfers
Off-plan Transfers
Secondary Market Transfers
Secondary Market Transfers
APARTMENTS5,698
Top Five Locations for Apartment Transfers in Q1 2018
Transferred Sales Q1 2018
Top Five Locations for Villa/Townhouse Transfers in Q1 2018Source: Property Monitor
Source: Property Monitor
616
573
424
257212
311
274
87
33
20
12 10
100
59
46
2722
216
120 115
SURVEYRESULTS
vs Apartment and villa/townhouse rents declined by 1% QoQ though 12 month decline is around 4% on average.
According to data from real estate agencies, transaction levels for Q1 2018 are higher than Q4 2017.
Reality
Apartment and villa/townhouse prices have remained largely stable in Q1 2018 with a 12 month decline of 2% on average.
The majority of agents surveyed had predicted apartment and villa/townhouse prices to decrease by up to 5% in Q1 2018.
The majority of agents had predicted that apartment and villa/townhouse rents would decrease by up to 5% in Q1 2018.
The majority of agents had predicted new buyer enquiries, seller instructions and agreed sales would increase in Q1 2018.
Predictions
Q2 2018 Price Outlook
Looking Forward – Q2 2018
Looking Back – Q1 2018
Q2 2018 Rent Outlook
ApartmentsPercentage of agents who predict apartment prices will:
ApartmentsPercentage of agents who predict apartment rents will:
Villas/TownhousesPercentage of agents who predict villa/townhouse prices will:
Villas/TownhousesPercentage of agents who predict villa/townhouse rents will:
Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5%
Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5%
Source: Property Monitor and Residential Survey
Source: Property Monitor and Residential Survey
26.6%
23.4%
1.6%
44.0%
4.3%
0%
23.4%
46.2%
26.1%
4.3%
30.5%23.9%
0.5%
38.6%
6.5%
28.3%21.7%
0.5%
45.7%
3.8%
Q2 2018 Transaction Outlook
Percentage of agents who predict new buyer enquiries will:
Percentage of agents who predict new seller instructions will:
Percentage of agents who predict agreed sales will:
Decrease Increase Remain the same
Decrease Increase Remain the same
Decrease Increase Remain the same
35.4%
22.2%
28.8%
55.6%
15.7%
25.3%
38.9%
35.9%
42.4%
Inte
rnat
iona
lC
ity
Reem
(Mira
)
Off-plan transfers accounted for 61% of the total transfers in Q1 2018.
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
ENQUIRYSIZE
REQUIREMENTS(SQ FT)
16%
20%
21%
22%
8%
5%
8%
0 - 5,000
5,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 75,000
75,001 - 100,000
100,000+38%
ENQUIRYLOCATION
REQUIREMENTS
19%28%
6%
2%
5%
1%
Jebel Ali Free Zone
Dubai Industrial
Park
Al Quoz
Ras Al Khor
Jebel Ali Industrial
International Media Production Zone Dubai South
Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research
30%
ENQUIRYSECTOR
REQUIREMENTS
9%
16%
9%
9%
6%
6%
2%
2%
11%
GeneralTrading
L&D
Manufacture
Engineering
FoodProduction
ColdStrore
Services
Oil and Gas
Commodities
Other
SECTOR FOCUSINDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSING2017 witnessed a continuation of trends from the previous 18 months with a difficult and competitive market place. Enquiry levels picked up as the year progressed and rallied strongly in the final quarter, after a quiet summer period. The vast majority of enquiries were for the small to mid-sized sector of the market with requirements for 50,000 sq ft or less accounting for 79% of demand*. There were also a number of significant occupier requirements above this level, including the big box market of more than 100,000 sq ft*. Many of these requirements have remained unsatisfied due to the lack of good quality stock available in the market, which has led to more occupiers exploring the Build to Suit (BTS) route, therefore delaying take up.
There has been an increase in vacancy levels with many occupiers feeling financial pressure due to the current economic climate. Some businesses within certain industries, such as oil, gas and commodities, are now looking to rationalise their real estate holdings in a bid to reduce overheads and are therefore looking to either sell facilities which are considered excess to requirement or downsize operations. This is a trend which is even more apparent in the Free Zones where businesses are also facing increases in their land rents at rent review or lease renewal. In addition to this there are a number of speculative developers bringing new supply to the market leading to an unprecedented level of disposal instructions.
Buyers/tenants are being more cautious and carrying out further due diligence on their available options prior to making real estate related decisions. This is prolonging the timeframe to conclude a transaction but is also characteristic of a more mature and stable market.
There is opportunity for developers/land owners to build European style warehouses especially in Non-Free Zone locations.
Prime yields now stand a little under 8.5% which is a high yield compared to European markets.
There has been an increase in requirements from investors looking for institutional grade assets with long term income.
There remains an imbalance between landlord/seller expectations and the market prices which is stalling the market. If landlords are willing to be flexible, it is likely they could attract and secure occupiers to their warehouses.
New funds entering the market are both listed and non-listed, as well as increased activity from high net worth individuals.
The introduction of VAT which applies to the sale and lease transactions of commercial property, in addition to increasing regulations, will cause a period of readjustment in the market conditions.
There is a misalignment in seller and buyers pricing aspirations. Yields sought by sellers are too low and not reflective of the market, either because of the poor quality of the underlying asset, lack of growth potential or security of income.
Some businesses within the oil, gas and commodities sectors struggle, often looking to rationalise real estate holdings in a bid to reduce operational costs. However, it is likely that the increase in oil price toward the US $70 a barrel mark will positively impact these sectors and encourage more activity and/or investment.
Problems remain with land tenure; almost all warehouse and industrial land is leasehold. The biggest restraint restricting investment flow is short land leases and land lease rents. The rise in the underlying ground rents have resulted in investors seeking higher gross occupational rents, but with occupiers unable to pay these, it is often a case that transactions will not be financially viable.
Onerous ground lease terms and significant increases in ground rents, are pinching occupiers bottom lines at a time when there has been much contraction across a range of industries. Master industrial authorities should keep a watchful eye on such strategies to ensure they don’t lose tenants.
There are very few investment grade commercial options available to investors which might suggest why yields across asset sectors do not fluctuate significantly as one would expect.
Occupiers with obsolete buildings, or those unwilling to sign long term occupational leases or with weaker balance sheets, can expect double digit yields.
Given the weight of money chasing transactions, international or strong regional tenants who can sign long leases could potentially achieve yields of less than 8%.
Going into 2018, prime yields are expected to remain stable with more opportunities for sale and leaseback deals as end users seek to free up liquidity which is otherwise tied up in real estate.
The key driving forces in the market throughout 2016-2017 were from the logistics and distribution sectors and the traders of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and we expect this trend to continue throughout the course of 2018. This demand is not being met by the specification of existing warehouses, whereby occupiers in such industries prefer more modern European specification distribution warehouses which are not as readily available in the region. However we are seeing a shift in developers being more conscious towards the needs of the end users reflected in the new products they are bringing to the market in locations such as in Jebel Ali Free Zone and National Industries Park.
Among the influential factors of 2017 affecting take up levels was the disparity between landlord/seller pricing expectations and what the market is willing to pay; often with asking prices 25-30% above market levels. We did witness deals concluding where landlords and sellers were able to realign expectations with the market which is encouraging. However, in still too many cases, there was little room for negotiation, with some landlords and sellers unwilling to change their pricing aspirations which have likely resulted in their properties continuing to sit vacant. When paired with increasing holding costs in the form of land rent and maintenance, this could be a costly and risky strategy.
Occupiers remained cautious of the market since the drop in the oil price in 2014, however there was an improvement at the end of 2017 as oil prices recovered above the US $60 mark. Although there has been wider geopolitical instability from events such as the Brexit referendum, the uncertainty attached to a Trump Administration and more locally the break down in relations between Qatar and the rest of the GCC, occupiers are starting to factor in and account for external market forces within their decision making strategies similarly to more developed markets.
MARKET CHALLENGESAND OPPORTUNITIES
INDUSTRIALINVESTMENT
21
21
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6789
*This excludes buildings which are incomplete and specialist units such as fitted cold stores.*The figures reported are exclusive of master authority sub-leasing fees which vary between 15 - 30%
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Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
Loca
tions
Jebel Ali Free Zone
Dubai Investments Park
Al Quoz
National Industries Park
Dubai Industrial Park
Whilst we expect transaction levels to remain below 2015 take up, strong enquiry levels since the start of 2018 suggest there will be a modest increase from 2017. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that occupiers will continue to carry out greater due diligence and analysis, which will impact decision making times and there will be a continuing differentiation in pricing expectations between sellers and buyers.
There will continue to be many properties sitting stagnant on the market however if landlords and sellers are willing to adjust to the current market levels, then they should secure occupiers and buyers. We anticipate an increase in the level of occupiers looking to relocate to other emirates in a bid to reduce occupational costs incurred where they are more responsive to the challenges facing many businesses. However, the additional benefits of working within Dubai such as a better legislative and legal framework, more developed infrastructure, working in closer conjunction with suppliers and consumers and easier access to a greater labour force will continue to outweigh any occupational cost savings which may be achievable in other emirates.
Due to the low levels of good quality supply in the well-established areas such as Dubai Investments Park and Al Quoz, which have no development land remaining, it is likely that interest in the areas around Al Maktoum International Airport, such as Dubai South and Dubai Industrial Park will increase as occupiers are forced to look at alternative locations to find suitable properties. Prices in free zones are expected to decline as increased supply and high vacancy levels, coupled with rising land rents, continue to compress capital values. Nevertheless, with an increase in the oil price, Expo 2020, further capital investment in the expansion of Jebel Ali Port on the horizon and the overall maturing of the market, the general sentiment is more positive than it has been for the past couple of years.
2018 MARKETOUTLOOK
INDUSTRIAL PROPERTYSUPPLY (PER SQ FT)
Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research
Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research
Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research
ASKING SALE PRICES
ASKING LEASE PRICESA
vera
ge
pric
e A
ED /
sq
ft
Jebel Ali Free Zone Dubai Investments Park Al Quoz National Industries Park Dubai Industrial Park
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ave
rag
e p
rice
AED
/ s
q ft
Loca
tions
Jebel Ali Free Zone
Dubai Investments Park
Al Quoz
National Industries Park
Dubai Industrial Park
359.5
391.5
231
273
248.5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
70
27.5
33
35
30
27
(AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft)
(AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft)
© Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com © Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.me 1918
Dubai Market ReportQ1 2018 Q1 2018 Dubai Market Report
PEOPLE
Nigel Armstrong FMAATChief Executive Officer
Jay Grant MSc IRRV (Hons)Founder and Chairman
Miles Phillips BSc (Hons) MRICS Senior Partner
Paul McCambridgeHead of SalesProperty Monitor
Sofia Underabi MRICS AAPIPartnerHead of Residential Valuation
Andrew Love MA (Hons) MRICSPartnerHead of Investment and Commercial Agency
Manika Dhama BA (Hons), MBASenior ConsultantStrategic Consulting and Research
METHODOLOGYSale prices and rents are derived from Property Monitor (www.propertymonitor.me), a real estate intelligence platform established by Cavendish Maxwell in 2014. Property Monitor provides real-time, market-wide transactional data and trends. Working with governments, agencies, banks, developers and corporate investors, it provides deeper insight into real estate advisory, investment, and lending activities. The average sales price per sq ft is based on the Property Monitor Index which incorporates signed contracts, registered transactions, valuations and listings verified by Cavendish Maxwell’s market leading valuation department.
Property Monitor Residential Survey is a quarterly study of agent opinion designed to identify residential market sentiment. This research highlights how new enquiries, leasing activity and transactions, among other metrics, changed from quarter to quarter with agent predictions compared to actual real market performance.
Supply projections for residential projects are based on the Property Monitor Supply Tracker which tracks supply in real time, regular tracking of construction projects, new launches and delays. This is achieved through site inspections as well as regular feedback from developers, contractors, Cavendish Maxwell’s building consultancy team and related government entities. Indices and average prices are produced using Property Monitor Index, which was introduced in January 2014. The data is drawn from various data sources. Some figures are recalibrated each month and the data is continuously updated fromgovernment entities, which may result in revisions tohistorical data.
By working with our strategic consulting team, our clients immediately gain access to our knowledge base, technical expertise and highly skilled individuals, making us the development partner of choice. Our rigorous analysis, research and unique access to Property Monitor allows our team to produce reports and advice with a refreshingly different vision leading to creative and effective strategies.
We have advised on schemes with a gross development value of over AED 3 billion in the last year. Our reports are used internally for business planning purposes and to satisfy the criteria of external financiers and auditors.
Our name is trusted by all major banks across the UAE, supported by our presence on over 40 bank panels across the region.
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18 © Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com © Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.me
James Cresswell BA (Hons) MSc MRICSPartnerHead of Commercial Valuation
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