PWD Water Supply Planning: Introduction1960s Chloride at PWD and Trenton PWD Chloride Trenton...
Transcript of PWD Water Supply Planning: Introduction1960s Chloride at PWD and Trenton PWD Chloride Trenton...
PWD Water Supply Planning: IntroductionRegulated Flow Advisory Committee May 24, 2018
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not bepublished or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Water Supply Planning
Introduction
2
1. Utility overview2. The need for planning3. Planning scope
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
PWD Water Supply Planning
3 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
• Multi‐year water supply planning effort• Designed to support parallel water and wastewater
infrastructure planning efforts• Critical need to understand the potential risks to
infrastructure, regulatory compliance and public health of current and future water quality and quantity
• Water supply planning , specifically, is focusing on three critical drivers‐Climate change‐Ambient water quality changes‐Policy changes
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
PhiladelphiaWater Department
4 | WATER SUPPLY
Drinking Water
Wastewater
Stormwater
• 1.7 million drinking water customers
• 3 Water Treatment Plants
• 2.2 million wastewater customers
• 3 Water Pollution Control Plants
• 60% Combined, 40% Separate Sewers
• Large‐scale green infrastructure pgm.
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
5 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Climate change will exacerbate salinity intrusion
• Climate changes – sea level has risen ~0.64 feet since 1960
• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes
CUSP 90th pcntl. projections for sea level rise from a 2000‐2004 baseline
2020s 2050s 2080s
0.8 ft. (0.2 m)
2.4 ft. (0.7 m)
4.5 ft.(1.4 m)
Source: Climate Central, 2017 (5 ft. SLR over MHHW)
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
6 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Freshwater chlorides have tripled since the 1960s
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes
0102030405060
1955
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Chlorid
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g/L
Delaware River at Trenton Chloride 1955‐2018
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
7 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Freshwater chlorides have tripled since the Decree and Good Faith Agr.
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes – chlorides have tripled• Policy changes
0102030405060
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Chlorid
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g/L
Delaware River at Trenton Chloride 1955‐2018
60sDROUGHT
NOW
GOOD FAITHAGREEMENT
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
8 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Chloride during the worst salinity intrusion event in the Delaware River
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality – 1960s drought led to salinity policies• Policy changes
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Apr‐64 Jun‐64 Aug‐64 Oct‐64 Dec‐64 Feb‐65 Apr‐65 Jun‐65 Aug‐65 Oct‐65 Dec‐65
Chlorid
e, m
g/L
1960s Chloride at PWD and Trenton PWD Chloride Trenton Chloride
During intrusion, ocean salt reaches PWD, increasing chloride
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
9 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Chlorides today are equivalent to those during the drought of record
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality – 1960s drought led to salinity policies• Policy changes
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
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Discharge, CFS
Chlorid
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1960s Chloride and Streamflow PWD Chloride Trenton ChlorideTrenton, CFS
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
10 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
Major Takeaway #1
Ambient chloride concentrations today are equivalent to the worst salinity intrusion of record in the 1960s
Salinity intrusion chloride = ambient chloride + ocean salt
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
FFMP Table 1 Interstate Operation Formula
11 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Current flow objectives are designed to prevent salinity intrusion
NYC Storage Condition Montague Objective, CFS
Trenton Objective, CFS
Normal (L1, L2) 1,750 3,000
Drought Watch (L3) 1,650 2,700Drought Warning (L4) 1,550 2,700
Drought Emergency (L5) 1,100 ‐ 1,650 2,500 ‐ 2,900
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
FFMP Table 2 Drought Emergency Flow Objectives
12 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Current flow objectives are designed to prevent salinity intrusion
River Mile
Location
Trenton Objective, CFS
Montague Objective, CFS
Dec. – Apr.
May ‐ Aug.
Sept. ‐ Nov.
Dec. – Apr.
May ‐ Aug.
Sept. ‐ Nov.
> RM 92.5 2,700 2,900 2,900 1,600 1,650 1,650
RM 87‐ 92.5 2,700 2,700 2,700 1,350 1,600 1,500
RM 82.9‐ 87 2,500 2,500 2,500 1,350 1,600 1,500
< RM 82.9 2,500 2,500 2,500 1,100 1,100 1,100
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
13 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | FFMP flow targets are designed to prevent blue from falling below red
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes – policies created in ‘84 to manage low flow
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Discharge, CFS
Chlorid
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1960s Chloride and Streamflow PWD Chloride Trenton ChlorideTrenton, CFS
FFMP FLOW TARGETS
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
14 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | FFMP targets maintain flow within protective range (red)
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes – the ‘84 policies, now in FFMP, work well today
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Discharge, CFS
Chlorid
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2016‐17 Streamflow Trenton, CFS
FFMP FLOW TARGETS
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
15 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Even with working flow targets, chlorides are higher than during 1960s
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes – targets prevent intrusion, not ambient chl.
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Discharge, CFS
Chlorid
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2016‐17 StreamflowPWD Chloride Trenton ChlorideTrenton, CFS
FFMP FLOW TARGETS
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
16 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | FFMP flow targets are critical to preventing salinity intrusion
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
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Discharge, CFS
Chlorid
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2016‐17 StreamflowPWD Chloride Trenton Chloride'16‐'17 Trenton, CFS '64‐'65 Trenton, CFS
FFMP FLOW TARGETS
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
17 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
Major Takeaway #2
Current flow targets in FFMP are critical to manage intrusion of ocean salt
Salinity intrusion chloride = ambient chloride + ocean salt
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
18 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Flow targets maintain salt line below a 7‐day average of River Mile 90
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes – current targets have worked for 35 years.
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
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Discharge, CFS
Chlorid
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2016‐17 Streamflow '16‐'17 Trenton, CFS '64‐'65 Trenton, CFS
FFMP FLOW TARGETS
RM 102Nov – ‘64
RM 90Dec‐’16
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
19 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Flow targets maintain salt line below a 7‐day average of River Mile 90
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes
65707580859095100105
River M
ile
Salt Line River Mile, 1963 – 2016, 7‐day average 250 mg/L chloride
Data Source: DRBC
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
20 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Flow targets maintain salt line below a 7‐day average of River Mile 90
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes
65707580859095100105
River M
ile
Salt Line River Mile, 1963 – 2016, 7‐day average 250 mg/L chloride
The current flow targets at work!
Data Source: DRBC
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
21 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
Major Takeaway #3
Any attempt to alter current flow targets needs a carefully crafted assessment of intrusion impacts on public health and infrastructure
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?
22 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Reducing flow targets needs to be extensively investigated
• Climate changes• Ambient water quality changes• Policy changes
o The flow targets work, yet they are under consideration to be changed
Pre‐2017 FFMPs• Same salinity policy
since 1983 (35 yrs.)
Current FFMP• Flow targets anticipated
to be reduced in 5 years
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
FFMP 2017 Most Significant Section IV.3.b
23 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Reducing flow targets needs to be extensively investigated
“The studies identified in subdivision (a) above will evaluate the impacts to: the salt front, aquatic and fishery resources in the Basin, and projections of future sea level rise to salinity…
If studies by the Decree Parties or external entities on behalf of a Decree Party support that detachment provides comparable protection for existing resources and uses within the Basin and does not cause significant adverse impacts, then detachment will be implemented between June 1, 2023 and May 31, 2028... “
Comparable Protection vs. Significant Adverse Impacts…• A burden of proof in favor of detachment
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Critical Planning Baseline Observations
24 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
1. Ambient chloride concentrations today are equivalent to the worst salinity intrusion of record in the 1960s
2. Current flow targets in the FFMP are critical to manage intrusion of ocean salt
3. Any attempt to alter current flow targets needs a carefully crafted assessment of intrusion impacts on public health and infrastructure
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
What Does Water Supply Planning Entail?
25 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
Salinity Modeling• What streamflow regime is protective of downstream
drinking water supply given oceanic and meteorological influences
Watershed Modeling• What reservoir policies optimize the use of limited
water resources during drought
What Does Water Supply Planning Support?Infrastructure Planning – PWD Water Master Plan
• Alignment of the life cycle of infrastructure, water quality and regulatory compliance
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Water Supply Planning Team
26 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
PWD Programs• Watershed Protection Program• Water Quality Compliance Modeling• Climate Change Adaptation Program• Bureau of Laboratory Services
Consulting Support• Woods Hole Group• CDMSmith Inc.• Sage Services LLC• SciTek Consultants Inc.• Tetra Tech
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
SalinityFocus Area
27 | WATER SUPPLY
Diverse Uses and Resources
Water SupplyDrinkingIndustrial‐Power‐Refining‐Manufacturing
EcologicalFish HabitatShellfish HabitatWetlands
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Project Scope
28 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
What PWD is Studying How this Relates to the FFMPAmbient water quality before and during salinity intrusion at Baxter
Informs the incremental increase in chloride due to varying intensities of intrusion now and in the future
Differences in salinity driven by varied Schuylkill River and Trenton streamflow
Informs whether or not releases from Blue Marsh have a neutral role in salinity repulsion, and if the ‘Trenton equivalent flow’ is a valid policy concept
Streamflow patterns that lead to intrusion
Informs how droughts on tributaries downstream of Trenton, and managed flow at Trenton contribute to salinity repulsion
Streamflow patterns that can manage intrusion
Increases understanding of protective ranges of streamflow, informs if increasing the flow target given the salt line location is a valid policy concept
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Project Timeline – Ongoing Work
29 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
June 2018• Completion of calibration and validation
July 2018‐June 2019• Completion of validation report• Numerical experiments, post processing• Begin PST2 refinements, research into alternative policies
July 2019‐June 2020• Sea level rise salinity model set up and numerical experiments scheduled to begin
July 2020‐June 2021• Numerical experiments with PST and synthesis of findings
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
Series of Presentations
30 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING
1. Planning Introduction (today)
2. Model Selection, Data Collection and Set Up
3. Calibration Approach and Validation
4. Simulation Approach
And much more to come!
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contentsshould not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.
THANK YOU!
www.phila.gov/water/sustainability
CONTACT:[email protected]
Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.