PVRC Webinar - 19Aug09 - K9LA Cycle 24... and More Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA [email protected].

PVRC Webinar - 19Aug09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Aug09 - K9LA

Cycle 24 . . . and MoreCycle 24 . . . and More

Carl Luetzelschwab K9LACarl Luetzelschwab K9LA

[email protected]@arrl.nethttp://mysite.verizon.net/k9lahttp://mysite.verizon.net/k9la


What We’re Going to CoverWhat We’re Going to Cover

• Review of Cycle 23Review of Cycle 23• Generate our own prediction for Cycle 24Generate our own prediction for Cycle 24• Cycle 24 informationCycle 24 information• Cycle 24 impact to Contesting and DXingCycle 24 impact to Contesting and DXing

– When Will EU Be Back on the Higher Bands?When Will EU Be Back on the Higher Bands?– Why Was IARU 2009 So Good?Why Was IARU 2009 So Good?– Predictions for the Glorioso DXpeditionPredictions for the Glorioso DXpedition

This presentation will be on the PVRC websitevisit http://www.pvrc.org/index.htmlclick on the ‘PVRC Webinars’ link at the top


CaveatCaveat• This presentation is from an Amateur Radio This presentation is from an Amateur Radio

perspectiveperspective– In other words, mostly related to HF propagationIn other words, mostly related to HF propagation

• The Sun’s solar radiation and the Sun’s disturbances The Sun’s solar radiation and the Sun’s disturbances are important in other waysare important in other ways– Radiation hazards to astronauts and satellitesRadiation hazards to astronauts and satellites– Magnetic field activity inducing huge currents at ground levelMagnetic field activity inducing huge currents at ground level– Orbit mechanicsOrbit mechanics– Impact to climateImpact to climate– Over-the-pole airline flightsOver-the-pole airline flights

• For a broader exposure to solar issues, visit the For a broader exposure to solar issues, visit the Marshall Space Flight Center web site atMarshall Space Flight Center web site at

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/


Speaking of the MSFC . . . Speaking of the MSFC . . .

• One of the well-known MSFC solar scientists is Dr. One of the well-known MSFC solar scientists is Dr. David HathawayDavid Hathaway– His latest update on Cycle 24 and solar issues was Saturday His latest update on Cycle 24 and solar issues was Saturday

at the Huntsville (AL) Hamfestat the Huntsville (AL) Hamfest– If you have a chance to attend one of his presentations, do If you have a chance to attend one of his presentations, do

it!it!

• Dr. Hathaway’s conclusion “Dr. Hathaway’s conclusion “Solar Cycle 24 has begun but Solar Cycle 24 has begun but is expected to be very weakis expected to be very weak””

• His 2009 presentation is the first one on the list at His 2009 presentation is the first one on the list at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/presentations.shtmhttp://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/presentations.shtmll


Meridional flowMeridional flow

equator

magnetic pole

Nandy & Choudhuri Nandy & Choudhuri (2002)(2002)

• A poleward A poleward surface flowsurface flow

• Sinks inward in Sinks inward in the polar regionsthe polar regions

• Returns to the Returns to the equator at some equator at some depth.depth.


A Review of Cycle 23


Cycle 23Cycle 23• Began in mid Began in mid

19961996• Maximum Maximum

smoothed sunspot smoothed sunspot number of 121 in number of 121 in April 2000April 2000

• Second peak in Second peak in November 2001November 2001– Smoothed sunspot Smoothed sunspot

number of 116number of 116– Great northern Great northern

hemisphere 6m F2 hemisphere 6m F2 openings due to openings due to winter peakwinter peak


Daily, Monthly, SmoothedDaily, Monthly, Smoothed• Daily sunspot number Daily sunspot number

(yellow) is very spiky(yellow) is very spiky• Monthly mean sunspot Monthly mean sunspot

number (blue) is still number (blue) is still spikyspiky

• Smoothed sunspot Smoothed sunspot number (red) is very number (red) is very “smooth”“smooth”– Official measure of a Official measure of a

sunspot cyclesunspot cycle• The smoothed sunspot The smoothed sunspot

number correlates very number correlates very well to monthly median well to monthly median ionospheric parameters ionospheric parameters (foE, foF2, hmF2, etc)(foE, foF2, hmF2, etc)– Our propagation Our propagation

prediction programs prediction programs are based on this are based on this correlationcorrelationOur propagation predictions are statistical in nature over a month’s time frame


Cycle 23 Compared to Cycle 23 Compared to OthersOthers

• Early on it was very Early on it was very similar to Cycle 20, similar to Cycle 20, which peaked in late which peaked in late 19681968

• It was right around It was right around the average the average maximum of all maximum of all previous cycles previous cycles (which is a smoothed (which is a smoothed sunspot number of sunspot number of 114)114)

• It’s going longer than It’s going longer than the average duration the average duration of all previous cycles of all previous cycles (which is 10.8 years) (which is 10.8 years)

• It is lower at solar It is lower at solar minimum than the minimum than the average of all average of all previous minimums previous minimums (which is a smoothed (which is a smoothed sunspot number of 6)sunspot number of 6)

Cycle 23 thru December 2008

04080

120160200240

Oct-96

Oct-97

Oct-98

Oct-99

Oct-00

Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

smo

oth

ed s

un

spo

t n

um

ber

Cycle 23 Cycle 20 Cycle 22 Cycle 21 Cycle 19


This Solar MinimumThis Solar Minimum

This solar minimum is solar minimum is unusualunusual compared to other solar minimums compared to other solar minimums in our lifetimesin our lifetimes

02

468

10

12141618

2022

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

months from descent below smoothed sunspot number of 20

sm

oo

the

d s

un

sp

ot

nu

mb

er between Cycles 18 and 19

(Apr 1954)

between Cycles 19 and 20(Nov 1964)

between Cycles 20 and 21(Jun 1976)

between Cycles 21 and 22(Sep 1986)

between Cycles 22 and 23(Oct 1996)

between Cycles 23 and 24


A Look at All Historical DataA Look at All Historical Data

This solar minimum not that unusual with respect to all other solar minimums (yet!)


Our Own Prediction for Cycle 24


Long Term Look at Solar Long Term Look at Solar ActivityActivity

• Good sunspot records only go Good sunspot records only go back to the early/mid 1700sback to the early/mid 1700s

• We can (with reasonable We can (with reasonable confidence) reconstruct solar confidence) reconstruct solar activity from cosmogenic activity from cosmogenic nuclidesnuclides– 1010Be in ice coresBe in ice cores– 1414C in tree ringsC in tree rings

• Cosmogenic nuclides are the Cosmogenic nuclides are the result of galactic cosmic raysresult of galactic cosmic rays– High energy protons in the High energy protons in the

500 MeV to 20 GeV range500 MeV to 20 GeV range– Galactic cosmic rays create Galactic cosmic rays create

showers of secondary showers of secondary particles, which eventually particles, which eventually includes includes 1010Be and Be and 1414CC

google “galactic cosmic rays” and “cosmic ray shower”


Galactic Cosmic RaysGalactic Cosmic Rays• The Sun’s The Sun’s

magnetic field is magnetic field is stronger during stronger during sunspot sunspot maximummaximum

• Strong magnetic Strong magnetic field shields Earth field shields Earth from galactic from galactic cosmic rayscosmic rays

• The result is less The result is less nuclides coming nuclides coming to Earthto Earth

• Thus nuclides are Thus nuclides are low when solar low when solar activity is highactivity is high

• And vice versa – And vice versa – nuclides are high nuclides are high when solar when solar activity is lowactivity is low

Since galactic cosmic rays show an inverse relationship to the sunspot cycle, so do nuclides


Long Term Look at Solar Long Term Look at Solar ActivityActivity

Remember that high 14C indicates low solar activity and vice versa

There are cycles to solar activity other than the 11-year cycle

Cycles 5, 6, 7


All 23 CyclesAll 23 Cycles

• We can see those other cycles in this dataWe can see those other cycles in this data• Three maximum periodsThree maximum periods

– We’ve lived through the We’ve lived through the most intensemost intense of these three maximum periods of these three maximum periods• Two minimum periodsTwo minimum periods• We appear to be headed for another minimum periodWe appear to be headed for another minimum period

Dalton Minimum

un-named Minimum

Thus our simple (over-simple?) prediction is for a low Cycle 24


Next Max vs Previous MinNext Max vs Previous MinNext Solar Max vs Duration of Previous Solar Min

R2 = 0.5815

0

50

100

150

200

250

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

months at solar minimum (smoothed sunspot number < 20)

max

imu

m s

mo

oth

ed

sun

spo

t n

um

ber

of

nex

t so

lar

cycl

eCycle 19 – short minimum period before big maximum

Where the current minimum is headed?

Trend that also points to a low Cycle 24


Cycle 24 Information


Good News - Cycle 24 Has Good News - Cycle 24 Has StartedStarted

solar equator

Cycle 24 spots

Cycle 23 spots

White is “outward” magnetic field line

Black is “inward” magnetic field line

http://solar-center.stanford.edu/solar-images/magnetograms.html


Latest Prediction from NOAALatest Prediction from NOAA• Solar minimum Solar minimum

was in December was in December 20082008

• Maximum of ~ 90 Maximum of ~ 90 in mid 2013in mid 2013

• Prior to this recent Prior to this recent prediction, NOAA prediction, NOAA had been carrying had been carrying two predictionstwo predictions– One for a “high” One for a “high”

cycle (140)cycle (140)– One for a “low” One for a “low”

cycle (90)cycle (90)• Just two Just two

predictions? Nope!predictions? Nope!

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/


Many Other PredictionsMany Other Predictions

We simply don’t fully understand the processes in the Sun We simply don’t fully understand the processes in the Sun that generate solar cycles, thus many different methods that generate solar cycles, thus many different methods employedemployed


Solar Min in Dec 2008 – Solar Min in Dec 2008 – Really?Really?

• Lack of recent sunspots suggests Cycle 24 will Lack of recent sunspots suggests Cycle 24 will not be ramping up per the NOAA predictionnot be ramping up per the NOAA prediction– 40 spotless days and counting (40 spotless days and counting (http://spaceweather.com)http://spaceweather.com)

• More bad news – the Australian IPS (Ionospheric More bad news – the Australian IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service) has predicted that solar Prediction Service) has predicted that solar minimum won’t occur until April 2010minimum won’t occur until April 2010– http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

• If we continue to have more spotless days, then If we continue to have more spotless days, then solar minimum could be around a whilesolar minimum could be around a while

Oh, no – April 2010 ! !Oh, no – April 2010 ! !


Where Is Cycle 24?Where Is Cycle 24?

This is the third to the last slide in Dr. Hathaway’s 2009 presentation


Another Maunder Minimum?Another Maunder Minimum?

It’s just too early to tell with any It’s just too early to tell with any confidenceconfidence


““Wrong” Cycle 24 Wrong” Cycle 24 Predictions Predictions

• Are you frustrated with “wrong” solar cycle Are you frustrated with “wrong” solar cycle predictions?predictions?

• Remember what’s happening hereRemember what’s happening here– Solar scientists don’t fully understand the solar cycle processSolar scientists don’t fully understand the solar cycle process– They are using the They are using the scientific methodscientific method to put forth theories and to put forth theories and

then test their theories with previous cycles and with the then test their theories with previous cycles and with the progress (or lack thereof) of Cycle 24progress (or lack thereof) of Cycle 24

– With solar cycles lasting around 11 years, it’s a slow processWith solar cycles lasting around 11 years, it’s a slow process

• Many of these theories have predicted past Many of these theories have predicted past performance (several previous solar cycles) very wellperformance (several previous solar cycles) very well

• But it’s obvious we’re still missing somethingBut it’s obvious we’re still missing something


HelioseismologyHelioseismology• The sun generates new jet The sun generates new jet

streams near its poles every 11 streams near its poles every 11 yearsyears

• The streams migrate slowly from The streams migrate slowly from the poles to the equator and when the poles to the equator and when a jet stream reaches the critical a jet stream reaches the critical latitude of 22 degrees, new-cycle latitude of 22 degrees, new-cycle sunspots begin to appearsunspots begin to appear

• The stream associated with Cycle The stream associated with Cycle 24 has moved sluggishly, taking 24 has moved sluggishly, taking three years to cover a 10 degree three years to cover a 10 degree range in latitude compared to range in latitude compared to only two years for the previous only two years for the previous solar cycle.solar cycle.

• The jet stream is now, finally, The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the critical latitude, reaching the critical latitude, hopefully heralding a return of hopefully heralding a return of solar activity in the months and solar activity in the months and years aheadyears ahead

A helioseismic map of the solar interior. Tilted red-yellow bands trace solar jet streams. Black contours denote sunspot activity.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17jun_jetstream.htm

Minimum between Cycle 22 and 23

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/images/jetstream/sonogram.jpg


Cycle 24 Impact to Contesting and DXing


When Is EU Going to Be When Is EU Going to Be Back?Back?

• 15m to EU – smoothed 15m to EU – smoothed sunspot number > 25 sunspot number > 25 (10.7 cm smoothed (10.7 cm smoothed solar flux > 85)solar flux > 85)

• 10m to EU - smoothed 10m to EU - smoothed sunspot number > 50 sunspot number > 50 (10.7 cm smoothed (10.7 cm smoothed solar flux > 100)solar flux > 100)

• Thus consistent F2 Thus consistent F2 openings to EU may openings to EU may return forreturn for– 15m in early 2010 15m in early 2010

(ARRL DX)(ARRL DX)– 10m in late 2010 (CQ 10m in late 2010 (CQ

WW)WW)• To reiterate – this is all To reiterate – this is all

based on Cycle 24 based on Cycle 24 ramping up soonramping up soon

10m may be back for CQ WW in 2010

15m may be back for ARRL DX in 2010


Why Was IARU 2009 So Why Was IARU 2009 So Good?Good? • The week before the The week before the

IARU 2009 weekend IARU 2009 weekend had the highest ‘burst’ had the highest ‘burst’ of sunspot activity in a of sunspot activity in a long timelong time

• This was coupled with This was coupled with a low Ap indexa low Ap index

• The result? Great high The result? Great high band openingsband openings

Qs on the Higher Bands 15m 10mOL9HQ 1164 815 9A0HQ 1326 700LY0HQ 1280 756YR0HQ 1140 851W1AW/KL7 855 324

IARU 2009

http://www.solen.info/solar/


Glorioso DXpeditionGlorioso DXpedition

• Glorioso is #4 Worldwide Mixed Mode in the Glorioso is #4 Worldwide Mixed Mode in the 2008 DX Magazine 100 Most Needed Countries 2008 DX Magazine 100 Most Needed Countries Survey (more details in the Jan/Feb 2009 issue)Survey (more details in the Jan/Feb 2009 issue)


Glorioso - September 2009Glorioso - September 2009

Run predictions using your favorite prediction programRun predictions using your favorite prediction program

20m will likely be your best band20m will likely be your best band

East Coast will likely have good 17m opportunities, tooEast Coast will likely have good 17m opportunities, too

• Two delays so farTwo delays so far– 11stst attempt - May 2008 attempt - May 2008– 22ndnd attempt – July 2009 attempt – July 2009

• If September 2009 happens, could be a betterIf September 2009 happens, could be a better– Equinox month – higher MUFsEquinox month – higher MUFs– More sunspots (we can always hope!)More sunspots (we can always hope!)

• If they delay even more, then the higher If they delay even more, then the higher bands may be productive!bands may be productive!


Great Circle Paths to Great Circle Paths to GloriosoGlorioso

East Coast Midwest West Coast

maps from W6ELProp (free download at www.qsl.net/w6elprop)

• Glorioso sunrise is 0248 UTCGlorioso sunrise is 0248 UTC– East Coast has about 3 hours 45 minutes of common darknessEast Coast has about 3 hours 45 minutes of common darkness– Midwest has about 2 hours 20 minutes of common darknessMidwest has about 2 hours 20 minutes of common darkness– West Coast has about 45 minutes of common darknessWest Coast has about 45 minutes of common darkness

• Path goes to progressively higher latitudes as we move WestPath goes to progressively higher latitudes as we move West– Lower MUFs, more susceptible to disturbancesLower MUFs, more susceptible to disturbances


SummarySummary• I believe solar scientists are headed towards I believe solar scientists are headed towards

a consensus that Cycle 24 will be a low onea consensus that Cycle 24 will be a low one– This also suggests Cycle 25 will be lowThis also suggests Cycle 25 will be low

• The question with respect to Cycle 24 is The question with respect to Cycle 24 is “when will it start ramping up?”“when will it start ramping up?”– The answer: sometime between ‘soon’ and ‘later’The answer: sometime between ‘soon’ and ‘later’

• Regardless of what Cycle 24 does, there will Regardless of what Cycle 24 does, there will be lots of DX to work and lots of QSOs to be be lots of DX to work and lots of QSOs to be made in contestsmade in contests

So get radio-active!So get radio-active!


Q & AQ & A

For good technical information and tutorials about solar issues, I highly recommend the MSFC web site at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/

This PowerPoint file is at http://mysite.verizon.net/k9laThis PowerPoint file is at http://mysite.verizon.net/k9la

PVRC Webinar - 19Aug09 - K9LA Cycle 24... and More Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA [email protected].

Documents

Transcript of PVRC Webinar - 19Aug09 - K9LA Cycle 24... and More Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA [email protected].