PV Panels for the US Make - not Buy! · Silicon & Wafer Solar cell & Module Thin film module...

Silicon & Wafer

Solar cell & Module

Thin film module

Semiconductor

PV Panels for the US

Make - not Buy!

Frank Fallercentrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc.

Silicon & Wafer

Solar cell & Module

Thin film module

Semiconductor

2© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10

Centrotherm: Provider of Equipment and Turnkey Solutions for the Production of ...

Poly Silicon Ingot Wafer Cell ModulePoly Silicon Ingot Wafer Cell Module PV Farm


Outline

Introduction Centrotherm Market Value Chain Poly Silicon Route PV Panel Production


2010 Major order for the construction of a poly-silicon factory in Qatar Cooperation with Reis Robotics in the area of integrated process and automation technology2009 Realization of the largest to-date turnkey solar cell production line of 250 MW annual capacity “First Silicon Out" at poly silicon equipment customers in Asia Expansion of turnkey product range: crystalline module production2008 Foundation of centrotherm SiTec GmbH - Bundling of expertise in the solar silicon area Foundation of sales and service companies in Italy and the USA Acquisition of FHR Anlagenbau GmbH (Sputtering equipment) 2007: IPO of centrotherm photovoltaics AG; Admission to the TecDAX2006 Entry into the solar silicon business Delivery of first turnkey solar cell production lines2005: Foundation of centrotherm photovoltaics AG2004 – 2003 Separation of business units Foundation of centrotherm thermal solutions GmbH & Co. KG2002 – 2001 Cooperation agreement for research projects with the University of Konstanz, Germany Primary supplier of key equipment to well-known solar cell producers2000 Joint research projects with the Fraunhofer Institute für Solare Systeme, Germany Entry into the Asian market1979: First photovoltaic products supplied to well-known Fraunhofer Gesellschaft and Telefunken Systemtechnik GmbH1976: Foundation of centrotherm Elektrische Anlagen GmbH

History: In PV Equipment Business since 1979


Treviso, Italy

Singapore

Shanghai, ChinaTaiwan

Suwon, Korea

HanoverFrankfurt/Oder

Abensberg

Dresden

Blaubeuren

Constance

Martinsried

Ottendorf-Okrilla

Burghausen

Headquarters

Locations in Germany and International Sales & Service Companies

India and Qatar in foundation

Marietta,Georgia, USA

Centrotherm International Presence

Zaporozhye, Ukraine (Project company)

centrotherm HQ, Blaubeuren

GP Solar, Constance

FHR, Dresden

CTPV Korea

CTPV Shanghai

CTPV Taiwan

CTPV Singapore


Group Structure


Key Financial Figures 2009

Asia361.9 (71.1%)

Germany47.2 (9.3%)

Rest of Europe53.8 (10.6%)

Rest of World46.3 (9.1%)

Total: 509.1

Export Quota: 90.7%

Sales Breakdown by Region and Product 2009

in million €

Turnkey Production

Lines117.8 (23.1%)

Single Equipment

355.3 (69.8%)

Service & Replacement

parts16.8 (3.3%)

Other3.0 (0.6%)

Total: 509.1

Consulting & Engineering16.1 (3.2%)

Revenue 2010 as of June 30: € 278 million


Market position of centrotherm photovoltaics AG

Source: VLSI Research


Selected References

Silicon & Wafer Solar cell & Module Thin film module

Asia Silicon

Sunshine


Outline

Introduction Centrotherm

Market Value Chain Poly Silicon Route PV Panel Production


US Renewable Resources

Resource Solar PV/CSP) Wind Geothermal Water Power Biopower

Theoretical Potential

206,000 GW (PV)11,100GW (CSP)

8,000 GW (onshore)2,200 GW (offshore to 50 nm)

39 GW (conventional) 520 GW (EGS)4 GW (co-produced)

140 GW 78 GW


The Sun provides every hour as much energy as mankind consumes in one year

Source: EPIA


Source: Photon International, March 2010

Global PV Production Capacities


Source: Photon International, March 2010

Leading Companies


Market

Source: SEIA


Largest PV Installation in the US


Centrotherm ResearchMarket Development and Segmentation until 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009

36 7

2010 2011 2012 2013

10

14

19

26ground mounted systemscommercial roof topresidential roof top

c-Sidominant

Thin film gaining market share

• shortfall of Spanish market & finance crisis 2009 mainly affecting ground mounted PV systems

• Additional FIT cut discussion in Germany for second half 2010(no support for farmland solar system and 16% cut) nevertheless bright outlook dominated by c-Si technology

Source: centrotherm photovoltaics, EuPD

GW


EPIA: Market Scenarios until 2014


EPIA: US Market Scenarios


Cost of PV Electricity

Source: U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program.

Note: Retail price in most East Coast US states as well as California is 0.15 $ / kWh; this gives rise to PV electrcity being competitive in these markets today


PV Electricity vs. Actual Consumer Rate

• NREL study looked at 1000 cities nationwide

•Meaningful population centers at or near „Grid Parity“



• 2015 with 0.5% annual rate hike

•Includes:•ITC only •Falling system prices

•Almost half of market below grid parity

• 98% within 5 cents/ kWh

+0.5% p.a.



• 2015 with 1.0% annual rate hike

•Includes:•ITC only •Falling system prices

•Almost two thirds of market below grid parity

• 99% within 5 cents/ kWh

no concern aboutdemand for PV

But what does it mean for building manucacturing facilities??

+1.0% p.a.


“Unlimited” Market with Grid Parity (consumer electricity rate)World at 2.5 €/Wp cost of installed PV system

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200

Sun Irradiation [kWh/m²/year]

Ave

rage

hou

seho

ld e

lect

ricity

pric

e in

€/k

Wh

Germany

France

Greece

Grid Parity

Portugal

Spain

Italy

India

California

Australia

Hawaii

Texas

InstalledSystem Price 2.50 € / Wp

bubble size = market size

Taiwan

Above Blue Line: Grid Parity


Outline

Introduction Centrotherm Market

Value Chain Poly Silicon Route PV Panel Production


Polysilicon Production

Main stream today:TCS / Siemens technology

Feedstock mg-Si: 1.3 – 1.6 t/t Polysilicon Electricity consumption:

165 … > 200 kWh/kg

Module Silicon Ingot/ WaferSolar Cell

45%

10%

Other

26%

Electricity

17%

Materials Labor cost

2%

DepreciationKey drivers of production cost Electricity (site selection!) CAPEX depreciation (=> output of reactors and

converter technology: )

Production cost: 24 … 33 €/kg(including feedstock: mg-Si)


Ingot/Wafer Manufacturing

Competition between multi and mono material

Key processes: crystallisation, bricking, wafering

Wafer thickness typical 2010: 200 µm (low end 180 µm)

Module Silicon Ingot/ Wafer Solar Cell

30%

60%Labor cost

2%

Depreciation

Other4%

Electricity4%

Materials

Key drivers of processing cost (multi): Line throughput (= CAPEX depreciation) Materials:

- crucibles- slurry- wire

Processing cost: 0.73 … 0.90 €/wafer(excluding feedstock: polysilicon)


Solar Cell Manufacturing

Solar cell device technology today: screen printed cell moving towards selective emitter technology

Typical production line size 50 – 100 MW Industry average efficiency 2010: 15.8 –

16.6% on multi wafer


37%

Other

5%Electricity

3%

Materials52%

Labor cost3%

Depreciation

Key drivers of processing cost Solar cell efficiency (=> Wp!) Line throughput (= CAPEX depreciation) Materials:

- Ag / Al pastes- Process media

Processing cost: 0.18 … 0.27 €/Wp

(excluding feedstock: wafers)


Module Manufacturing

Typical module design today: - 60 cells per module, 220 Wp- glass / backsheet laminate- framed

Key processes:- stringing, tabbing, interconnection- lamination

Key driver of processing cost: Materials! Glass 1.6 m2/module EVA 3.2 m2/module Backsheet 1.6 m2/module Frame 5.2 m/module Junction box 1 pcs/module

Processing cost: 0.30 … 0.40 €/Wp

(excluding feedstock: solar cells)

Module Silicon Ingot/ WaferSolar Cell

8%

Other

1%

Electricity0%

Materials

89%

Labor cost2%

DepreciationCourtesy of Reis Robotics


Single Factories versus Integrated Factory

MG Silicon Plant

Polysilicon plant

Power plantSolar academy

Ingoting

Solar cell line

Wafering

Module line

Administration

Singlefactories

Integratedfactory

Polysilicon plant Ingoting & Wafering Solar cell line Module line +Administration


2700 t

2700 t

105 Mio Wafer

107 Mio Wafer

403 MW Cells

379 MW Modules

395 MW Modules

From Ton‘s of Silicon to MW‘s of Modules: 2010

single factories

2010

fully integrated

factory 2010


387 MW Cells

-0.5% -0.5%


2700 t 124 Mio Wafer

488 MW Modules

Fully integrated factory 2013

From Ton‘s of Silicon to MW‘s of Modules: 2013

Wafer thickness 170µm45.8 wafer/kg Poly

Efficiency 17.6%Yield (cell fab): 96.5%Transport losses 0%

Embedding loss 2.5%Yield (module fab): 98%Transport losses 0%

Silicon utilization 5.5 g/Wp

498 MW Cells


Outline

Introduction Centrotherm Market Value Chain Poly Silicon Route

PV Panel Production


Aluminum frame (h = 45 mm)

Tempered cover glass (3,2 ~ 4 mm)

Encapsulation foil 2 (e.g. EVA, 500 µm)

Stringed solar cells (60 – 72 pcs.; ≤ 180 µm)

Back sheet (electrical insulation and humidity sealing; 350 µm)

Junction box

Encapsulation foil 1 (e.g. EVA, 500 µm)

Module structure: >90% of c-Si based modules consist of this structure; typical values and data in ()

Crystalline Solar Module


Crystalline Solar ModuleCompetitive Module Power with Selective Emitter Cells

and

Multi Mono

Basis: 60 cells per module, module area: 1,64 m²

Cell efficiency represent the guaranteed values in centrotherm turnkey lines.

Module power represents target value for power guarantee in turnkey integrated factories

FlexLine FlexLine+ FlexLine FlexLine+Cell efficiency 16,2% 16,8% 17,4% 18,2%Encapsulation Loss* 3,0% 3,5% 5,0% 5,5%Encapsulated cell efficiency 15,7% 16,2% 16,5% 17,2%Module power** 229 W 236 W 237 W 247 WArea utilization 88,9% 88,9% 87,4% 87,4%Module efficiency 14,0% 14,4% 14,5% 15,0%* Assumption, depends on various factors, e.g. ribbons, nitride, glass, EVA** Module power was calculated

Multi Mono


Fab Planning: Standard Turnkey Module Line

Foil cutting, EVA

Glass washing, labelling and 1st

EVA - foil

Stringer and Lay - Up

Interconnection

Repairing places for strings and

matrices

2nd EVA – foil,Back sheet –foil

Laminator 3 steps, 1 stage

Edge trimming

(Hot Spot measuring)

optional

Taping and

Soaping

Framing

Junction Box

Setting

Flipping and visual inspection

Flashing and classification

Sorting and packaging of the modules

~ 90 m

~ 14 m

Floorspace required: ~1260 sqm. = 14,000 sq.ft.


Module Line Design


String Matrix Lay-up


Interconnect of Strings


Automated Framing


Fab PlanningSolar Module Factory - Layout

Stringer

Laminator

Module Tester

Layup Station

Interconnection

Glass washing

1st foil setting

Back end

2nd foil setting


15 MW Module Line


100 MW Module Line


Turnkey Package includes

Consulting for Building requirements Facilities (requirements) Production tools Production support tools Solar module design and technology Manufacturing technology Process / production control Documentation, staff training and support Module Certification (IEC 61215 (c-Si), IEC 61730 (safety), UL 1703)


Cost of Manufacturing PV Panels

Production Cost Contributions

21%

3.2%

1.4%0.4%75%

Depreciation Equipment

Depreciation Facility &BuildingLabor

Materials and running cost

Feedstock

Processing Cost Contributions6% 2%

12%

80%

Depreciation Equipment

Depreciation Facility &BuildingLabor

Materials and runningcost

Key Figures 60 MW Module Line Project- Total Capex ~$10m (bldg, facil., eqpmnt)- Output 31 modules per hour, each ~227 Watt- Processing cost ~0.4 $/Wp- 24/7 operation, 360 days- 70 operators, total 85 employees

Competitiveness-Cost advantage in Asia is small-Running operation effectively and long-term realization of economy-of scale is key

-Production near markets is beneficial-Meaningful part of market in US will fall under „Buy American Provision“

-Local brands have been able to secure price premium (e.g., SolarWorld)


Conclusion

Markets & demand are strong and growing

Robust technology: C-Si produces reliable, low-risk and bankable product (look at $/kWh – not $/Wp!!)

Turnkey solutions for production lines available

Solid business plan executable

Make – not Buy!

Silicon & Wafer

Solar cell & Module

Thin film module

Semiconductor

centrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc

1395 South Marietta PkwyBldg. 200, Suite 208Marietta, GA 30067, USAPhone +1 678-996 [email protected]

Silicon & WaferSolar cell & ModuleThin film moduleSemiconductor

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PV Panels for the US Make - not Buy! · Silicon & Wafer Solar cell & Module Thin film module...

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Transcript of PV Panels for the US Make - not Buy! · Silicon & Wafer Solar cell & Module Thin film module...