Pursuing the digital railroad
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Transcript of Pursuing the digital railroad
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Pursuing the Digital Railroad
Ken Donnelly
IBMGlobal Systems Integrator Sales Leader
March 2015
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Agenda
Pursuing the Digital Railroad
– Introduction and Overview
– Creating interconnected, instrumented and intelligent systems
– Improving performance by reducing unscheduled outages, predicting service demand and
increasing efficiency with predictive technology.
– Money talks – how much could your railway be saving by effectively leveraging sensor technology?
© 2015 IBM Corporation
DRIVERS OF CHANGE CHALLENGES STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES
Economic Growth Global economy is expanding and citizens are getting wealthier. Rail providers will need to expand capacity to keep up with freight and passenger growth
Passenger GrowthAs the number and size of cities grows, pressure on rail system to move people between and within those cities grows.
GlobalizationThe growing interconnectedness of the world is driving growth in demand, with an expectation of improved service
Technology ImprovementsTechnology now enables the capture and analysis of real-time information about the status, location and condition of rail operations
Capacity and congestionMeet the growing, changing demand efficiently, consistently and profitably?
Empowered customersDeliver choices for ticket purchase, changes in travel plans, and presenting information in the way that passengers value
Efficient, green operationsReduce cost and dependency on scarce resources while reducing environmental impact.
Safety and securityIncrease the safety of operations, with less impact on customers and reduce exposure to security risks
Predict demand and optimize capacity and assets.
Dramatically improve the end-to-end traveler experience.
Improve rail operational efficiency while reducing environmental impact.
Assure safety and security of rail
Global Rail Business Drivers and Trends
© 2015 IBM Corporation4
Something to Think About: Is this how we approach asset management and optimization today?
Assets need to enable the services that maximize the profits of an enterprise.
The enterprise should manage asset maintenance and deployment to maximize profits, not to minimize asset
costs.
IBM Asset Optimization moves asset maintenance and deployment from a low cost paradigm to an
investment paradigm.
The investment paradigm means that maintenance and deployment costs are incurred at the
level necessary for the enterprise to operate at its profit-maximizing level.
4
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Agenda
Pursuing the Digital Railroad
– Introduction and Overview
– Creating interconnected, instrumented and intelligent systems
– Improving performance by reducing unscheduled outages, predicting service demand and
increasing efficiency with predictive technology.
– Money talks – how much could your railway be saving by effectively leveraging sensor technology?
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Intelligent Sensors Growth Rate
7
1 - Sources: a. Berg, iSuppli, and ABI M2M forecast average for 2005-2011 extrapolated at 2010-2011 growth rate.b. FierceWireless “AT&T moves closer to embedded wireless vision” May 8, 2009
© 2015 IBM Corporation
The project used data mining, machine learning and predictive modeling to predict impending failure/alarm of critical rail car components. The prediction drives proactive inspection and repairs, reducing operational equipment failure
Machine Vision Detector
Optical Geometry Detector
Truck Performance Detector
Wheel Impact Load Detector
Acoustic Bang Detector
Hot Box DetectorsWarm Bearing Detectors
Hot Wheel / Cold Wheel Detectors
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Intelligent
A more intelligent transportation infrastructure will put all this new data to work. – Mobile monitoring systems will provide railroads with more intelligence through continuous real-time data
capture and analysis, such as the health of rolling stock and operational data from manifest verifications
to freight condition and intrusion detection.
– Sensors on cars will trigger messages based on decision modeling and analytics.
– Autonomic routines will then dispatch services, order parts, schedule maintenance and perform remote
diagnostics.
– Eventually, such technologies could reduce the need for fixed infrastructure along the wayside and give
railroads the flexibility and responsiveness they need to optimize crew schedules, and integrate
passenger and freight transport more seamlessly, with far fewer delays.
Locomotive
Health ScoreLocomotive
Life Span
Derived
Measurements
Primary
Predictors
Predicted
Monitored
Equipment
(Diesel Loco)- Alternator
- Engine
Alternator
Amperage
Alternator
Temp
Engine
TemperatureLUBE
Quality
Engine
RPM
Alternator
Amperage
Engine
Temperature
Predictive Model
Used
Linear Regression
Model
Cox Regression
Model
others..
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Agenda
Pursuing the Digital Railroad
– Introduction and Overview
– Creating interconnected, instrumented and intelligent systems
– Improving performance by reducing unscheduled outages, predicting service demand and
increasing efficiency with predictive technology.
– Money talks – how much could your railway be saving by effectively leveraging sensor technology?
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Total Cost of Ownership
End of Life Replacement CostsWarranty Tracking InabilityManufacturer TCO DifferencesUnknown factors that reduce TCOUncertain Inventory RequirementsNo Closed Loop Measures/Metrics
Maintenance Inefficiencies
High Backlog ConfusionCrew, Tool, and Resource UtilizationInadequate Response TimeInadequate level of MaintenanceEmergency vs. Routine RedundancyComplex Work Planning
Customer Behavior Uncertainty
Asset Utilization FluctuationsCustomer Satisfaction ImpactsLoss of RevenueService Level Agreements not met
Reliability Consequences
Inability to Predict Failure Effect of Usage and Environment Restoration times are uncertainRoot Cause Failures not understoodRisk Factors not Clear
Enterprise Assets
Typical Pain points
© 2015 IBM Corporation
What if you could accurately predict which characteristics tend to lead to an increased frequency of failures?
What if, when an asset is scheduled for maintenance, you could predict what parts are likely to fail in the near future?
What if you could identify the characteristics that tend to increase ownership cost and downtime over the life of a system?
What if you could replace those parts that have not yet failed and avoid further unscheduled downtime?
What if you could quickly mine the thousands of logs that describe the maintenance performed on systems and determine what important observations are being logged by the maintenance team?
What if you could unearth patterns in maintenance operations over time that could point to opportunities for improvements?
Are you facing such challenges? And/or other ones?
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Predictive Analytics is essential to answering these question ….
Captured
Detected
Inferred
Use Structured Data & Unstructured Data
Descriptive Analytics
Prescriptive Analytics
Predictive Analytics
Simplified to be consumable and accessible to everyone, optimized for their specific purpose, at the point of impact, to deliver better decisions and actions through:
What trends will continue? Forecasting
How can we achieve the best outcome and address variability? Stochastic Optimization
What happened?
What exactly is the problem?
How many, how often, where?
What actions are needed?
What could happen if? Simulation
How can we achieve the best outcome? Optimization
What will happen next if? Predictive Modelling
Analytics Sophistication
• From multiple (valuable) sources
Sensors (temp, PSI,..)
Maintenance Records
R&M, OMS, Warranty,..
Operating Conditions
MultipleData Sources
• From multiple (valuable) sources
MultipleData Sources
Use Structured Data & Unstructured Data
• From multiple (valuable) sources
MultipleData Sources
Use Structured Data & Unstructured Data
• From multiple (valuable) sources
MultipleData Sources
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Agenda
Pursuing the Digital Railroad
– Introduction and Overview
– Creating interconnected, instrumented and intelligent systems
– Improving performance by reducing unscheduled outages, predicting service demand and
increasing efficiency with predictive technology.
– Money talks – how much could your railway be saving by effectively leveraging sensor technology?
© 2015 IBM Corporation
“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we must think!”
- Sir Winston Churchill
A First Thought ……
© 2015 IBM Corporation
An Example
Increase reliability 30% improvement by 2015
Cost savings of £2.2B
Annual passenger growth since start of the 2008 recession 3.8%
700% safety improvement
40% asset reliability performance improvements
£400 million saving due to asset life extension
£4.6 million saving due to mobilization of inspection processes
Improvement in reliability (MDBF) 478% across specific asset classes
This is more than just technology and process, it is aboutpeople and organizational culture. For the business transformation to deliver the results of world class this has to be
led from the very top of an enterprise.
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Organizational Challenges
Probably the most important and challenging aspect of an a program is addressing the needs of people within
the organization.
Because asset management is holistic, it depends upon comprehensive coordination and communication. Most
organizations are functionally segregated.
The challenge is to help the people in the organization understand and appreciate the benefits of the process
from the perspective of the entire organization rather than the viewpoint of their individual units.
Another challenge is building organization-wide commitment to change. Creating buy-in at both the executive
and operations levels of the organization is critical to success.
Ad hoc
Foundational
Competitive
Differentiating
Break away
•Spreadsheets and extracts
•Data warehouses and reporting
•Contextual business rules and pattern recognition•Content analytics of unstructured data
•Master data•Managing structured Data•Metrics, dashboards, scorecards
•Predictive, real time analytics
Big Data Value Proposition
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Summary
The World is changing rapidly ….. Intelligent Devices and the ability to effectively harvest the right data
and convert it to meaningful Information is now more crucial than ever.
Technology is easy …. Organizational changes are CHALLENGING– Information Silo’s must be eliminated.
Paper Records are archaic … Do you have a strategy to capture data real time?
Seconds count to delivering a Safe, Reliable, and Profitable Service.