Pure Power - Wind Energy Targets from 2020 and 2030
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Pure PowerWind energy targets for 2020 and 2030
EWEA High Scenario for the EU
Average MW that need to be installed per year in high scenario:
2,000-3,0001,000-2,000250-1,0000-250
Finland
Austria
Spain
Sweden
Germany
France
Portugal
HungaryRomania
Bulgaria
Denmark
Poland
CzechRepublic Slovakia
Greece
Cyprus
Netherlands
Belgium
Ireland
LithuaniaLatvia
Estonia
Luxembourg
Slovenia
U. K.
Italy
wind power installed in Europe by end 2010 (cumulative)
Faroe Islands4
Spain20,676
France5,660
Portugal3,898
Ireland1,428
Luxembourg42
Malta0
Finland197
Sweden2,163
Portugal3,898
Denmark3,798
Netherlands2,245
U. K.5,204
Norway441
Austria1,011
Italy5,797
Germany27,214
Poland1,107
Czech Republic215
Slovenia0
Switzerland42
European Union:84,324 MWCandidate countries:1,418 MWEFTA: 478 MWTotal Europe:86,321 MW
Romania462
Bulgaria375
Greece1,208
Cyprus82
Russia9
Ukraine87
Turkey1,329
Hungary295
Belgium911
Croatia89
Slovakia3
Lithuania154
Latvia31
Estonia 149
Ireland1,428
Member State 2010 wind power capacityand share of total EU capacity
Germany 27,214 32%
Spain 20,676 24%
Italy 5,797 7%
France 5,660 7%
UK 5,204 6%
Portugal 3,898 5%
Denmark 3,798 4%
Netherlands 2,245 3%
Sweden 2,163 3%Ireland 1,428 2%
Greece 1,208 1% Other 5,033 6%
TOTAL: 84,324
OtherPoland 1,107Austria 1,011Belgium 911Romania 462Bulgaria 375Hungary 295Czech Republic 215Finland 197Lithuania 154Estonia 149Cyprus 82Luxembourg 42Latvia 31Slovakia 3Malta 0Slovenia 0
Germany, Spain and Denmark’s share of the EU market (2002 – 2010)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
5,234
4,2724,112
3,5953,840
5,178
3,2774,735
3,373
679
1,1901,727
2,6093,779
3,357
4,9855,764
5,959
Germany, Spain, Denmark Rest of EU
Offshore wind power
Installed in 2010 (MW)
Total at end 2010 (MW)
United Kingdom 458 1,341Denmark 207 854Netherlands 0 247Belgium 165 195Sweden 0 164Germany 50 92Finland 2 26Ireland 0 25Total EU 883 2,944Norway 0 2.3China 102 102Total World 985 3,048
Annual and cumulative installed EU offshore capacity
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
5 0 0 2 5 17 0 3 0 4 51
170259
90 90 93
318373
582
883
5 5 5 7 12 29 29 32 32 3686
256
515605
695787
1106
1479
2061
2944
Total annual Total cumulative
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
(MW)
Wind energy’s share of national electricitydemand at end 2010
CyprusMalta
SloveniaSlovakia
FinlandCzech Republic
LatviaLuxembourg
HungaryPoland
RomaniaBulgaria
FranceBelgium
LithuaniaAustria
ItalySwedenEstonia
United KingdomNetherlands
GreeceEU-27
GermanyIreland
SpainPortugal
Denmark
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
0.5%0.6%0.9%1.1%
1.5%1.6%1.7%
2.1%2.3%2.3%
2.7%2.8%
3.2%3.2%3.5%3.7%
4.1%4.3%
5.3%8.0%
12.9%15.0%
15.5%25.6%
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
EU average5.3%
Global Cumulative Wind Power Capacity (1996-2010)
Source: “Global wind report – annual market update 2010” – GWEC 2011; EWEA 2011
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2.6 2.8 3.7 3.9 4.5 6.6 8 10.9 13.2 18.6 2637.3
55.6
83.8
112.7
3.5 4.8 6.5 9.7 12.917.3
23.128.5
34.440.5
48
56.5
64.7
75.1
84.3
Rest of the world EU
Total 6.1 7.6 10.2 13.6 17.4 23.9 31.1 39.4 47.6 59.1 74.1 93.8 120.3 158.9 197.0
(GW)
Global annual wind power capacity (1996-2010)
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0.3 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.600000000000001 2.1 1.4 2.7 2.45.3
7.711.3
18.3
28.3 28.9
1 1.3 1.7 3.2 3.24.4 5.9
5.5 5.8
6.2
7.6
8.5
8.3
10.5 9.3
Rest of the world EU
Source: “Global wind report – annual market update 2010” – GWEC 2011; EWEA 2011
Total 1.3 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.8 6.5 7.3 8.2 8.2 11.5 15.3 19.8 26.6 38.8 38.2
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Global wind power development compared to nuclear development
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 19800
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Global cumulative wind power Global cumulative nuclear powerGlobal annual nuclear power Global annual wind power
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
2 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.8 6.1 7.6 10.2 13.6 17.4 23.9 31.1 39.4 47.6 59.1 74.1 93.8 120.3
158.9
197
1 2.1 2.5 3.5 5.7 7.3 9.4 10.4 14.1 17.6 24.3 33 43.7 61 70.4 84 96.4 111.9
117.8
133
0.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.0 3.7 3.4 7.7 8.9 12.7 17.1 10.2 14.3 13.2 15.8 6.9 15.10.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.5 3.4 3.8 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.2 11.5 15.2 19.9 26.6 38.8 38.3
New annual global wind power and nuclear capacity (2001-2010)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2.75
1.7
4.8 3.9
1.4 1.80
1.1
3.7
6.5 7.3 8.1 8.2
11.5
15.2
19.9
26.6
38.8 38.3
New global Nuclear capacityNew global Wind power capacity
TOTAL: 26.1 (GW) TOTAL: 180.4 (GW)
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
(GW)
Power production from new global wind power and nuclear capacity
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19
36
12
34
28
1013
0
8
27
1416 17 18
25
33
43
57
83 82
Power production of new nuclear capacity (TWh)Power production of new wind capacity (TWh)
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
TOTAL: 187 (TWh) TOTAL: 388 (TWh)
Power production: global wind capacity additions in nuclear reactor electricity equivalents
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
5.7
7.4
10
14.5 14.3
Equivalent nuclear reactors
Source: EWEA 2011
TOTAL: 51.9
Member States market shares for new capacity (2010)
Germany 1,493
Spain 1,516
France 1,086
UK 962
Italy 948 10%
Sweden 604 6%
Romania 448 5%
Poland 382 4%
Denmark 364 4%
Portugal 363 4%
Belgium 350 4%Other 800 9%
TOTAL: 9,332 (MW)
OtherBulgaria 198Greece 123Ireland 118Hungary 94Cyprus 82Lithuania 63Finland 52Netherlands 32Czech Republic 23Austria 16Luxembourg 7Estonia 7Latvia 2Malta 0Slovenia 0Slovakia 0
16%
16%
12%
10%
kW of wind energy capacity per 1,000 people at end 2010
MaltaSloveniaSlovakia
LatviaCzech Republic
RomaniaPoland
HungaryFinland
LithuaniaBulgaria
United KingdomBelgium
LuxembourgFrance
ItalyCyprusGreeceEstoniaAustria
NetherlandsEU-27
SwedenIreland
GermanyPortugal
SpainDenmark
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800001
1420222929374650
8484848796102107111121
135168
232320
333366
450686
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
EU average168 kW
MW of wind power capacity per 1,000 KM² at end 2010
MaltaSloveniaSlovakia
LatviaFinland
RomaniaLithuania
Czech RepublicHungaryEstonia
BulgariaPoland
SwedenCyprusGreeceFranceAustria
LuxembourgItaly
EU-27Ireland
UKBelgium
SpainPortugal
NetherlandsGermanyDenmark
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000.00.00.10.50.6
1.92.42.73.23.33.43.5
4.88.99.210.3
12.116.4
19.219.520.321.3
29.941.0
42.654.1
76.288.1
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
EU average19.5 MW
Installed power capacity in the EU
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Coal Gas Nuclear Fuel oil Peat Large Hydro Wind PVBiomass Small Hydro Waste Geothermal CSP Tidal & Wave
Source: EWEA, EPIA, Estela, EU-OEA and Platts Powervision
(GW)
EU power capacity mix
Source: EWEA, EPIA, Estela, EU-OEA and Platts Powervision
2000TOTAL: 575.5 (GW)
2010TOTAL: 877.9 (GW)
2000 20100%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
159,482
128,471
105,552
89,801
66,51812,887 Other:
Small hydro: 4,514Biomass: 2,790Peat: 1,868Waste: 2,054Geothermal:1,360PV: 189
231,050
127,383
120,578
212,131
54,73584,324
Other:Small hydro: 4,843Biomass: 5,851Peat: 2,030Waste: 3,703Geothermal:1,466CSP: 635Tidal and wave:250
28,943
Net increase/decrease in power generating technologies
Source: EWEA, EPIA, Estela, EU-OEA and Platts Powervision
TOTAL INCREASE: 200,275 (GW)
GasWind PV
Large H
ydro
Biomass
Waste
CSP
Small
Hydro Pea
t
Geotherm
al
Tidal &
Wave
. , :
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
118.2
75.7
28.8
3.1 2.9 1.70.60000000000
0001 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
-7.6 -9.5 -13.2
Nuclear Coal Fuel Oil
Latest wind energy scenarios for EU-27
2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
86
144
222248
280
85
143
213
84
141
230
324
400
149
199
235263
EC 2009 NREAPs IEA 2010 EWEA 2011
(GW)
Source: EWEA, European Commission, International Energy Agency, National Renewable Energy Action Plans.
(GW total installed capacity)
Average annual increase in wind powercapacity in the EU-27
2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-20300
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
9.5
15.7
5.26.3
9.7
14
10.5 10
7.2
5.6
9.5
17.818.7
15.3
EC 2009 NREAPs IEA 2010 EWEA 2011
2010 installations
(GW)
Average annual new capacity AdditionsEU 2000-2030 (EC Primes Model, 2009)
2000-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-20300
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
7,445 16,486 16,497 28,052 16,318 30,1355,9217,027 16,524
15,9207,222
8,34427,791
45,82157,238
78,443
32,096
38,3456,802
4,320
27,407
14,218
16,622
17,48544,166
53,284
46,048 9,502
27,274
27,0094,832
4,9999,323
17,628
43,289
4,651
5,907
Other RES Biomass & Waste Wind OilCoal Gas Nuclear
*Biomass and Waste Source: “EU Energy trends to 2030 – update 2009”, European Commission 2010
(GW)
Electricity production from onshore andoffshore wind energy (NREAPs)
24
Offshore Onshore
Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90015%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1%
0
0.1
2.2
0.3
4.7
0.4
5.4
0.6
5.9
0.9
6.5
1.2
7
1.5
7.6
1.9
8.1
2.4
8.6
2.9
9.1
3.4
9.6
4
10
500
433
366
299
233
166
99
33
0
(TWh)
New annual EU wind power capacity additions (1991-2020)
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
New onshore New offshore Onshore repowering Offshore repowering
Total 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1 1.3 1.7 3.2 3.2 4.4 5.9 5.5 5.9 6.2 7.6 8.6 8.3 8.7 9.3 9.5 10 12.3 13.5 14.5 15.8 17.9 20.3 23.4 24.8
(GW)
Wind energy in 2020 – EWEA targets
Onshore
Offshore Total
Installed capacity (GW) 190 40 230
Annual installations (GW)
17.8 6.9 24.8
Annual investments (bn€) 16.2 10.4 26.6Electricity production (TWh) 433 148 581
EU power capacity mix (2010)
Others 23,377 16%
Germany 21,786 15%
UK 20,796 14%
Spain 19,324 13%
France 17,36
0 12%
Italy 9,703 7%
Poland 9,393
6%
Netherlands 7,2555%
Swe-den
6,837 5%
Greece 5,292 4%
Ireland 4,572 3%
Source: EWEA, EPIA, Estela, EU-OEA and Platts Powervision
OthersIncrease in wind power capacity 2011-2020 (MW)
% of EU-27 increase in wind power capacity2011-2020
Portugal 3,602 2,5%Belgium 2,986 2,1%Bulgaria 2,625 1,8%Romania 2,538 1,7%Austria 2,489 1,7%Denmark 2,202 1,5%Finland 1,703 1,2%Czech Republic 1,385 1%
Lithuania 846 0,6%Slovakia 797 0,5%Hungary 605 0,4%Slovenia 500 0,3%Estonia 351 0,2%Luxembourg 258 0,2%
Cyprus 218 0,1%Latvia 169 0,1%Malta 100 0,1%
Onshore historical growth 1994-2004 compared to EWEA’s offshore projection 2010-2020
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
215 367 470809 962
1277
1697
3225 3205
4377
5743
5203
5749
374584
883 10001370
2767 28593053
3433
4145
5115
6419
6902
Onshore (1992-2004) Offshore (2008 -2020)
(MW)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20042008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Wind energy in 2020
• Meeting 15.7% to 16.5% of EU electricity demand depending on total demand
• Producing 22.9% of total electricity generating capacity in the EU
• Equivalent to the consumption of 140 million average EU households
• Avoiding 341.6 Mt CO2 annually• Avoiding fuel costs of bn€ 23.9*• Avoiding bn€ 8.5 of CO2 cost*** Assuming IEA forecast, fuel cost equivalent to $97.4/bbl of oil, real 2010 value)** Assuming €25/t CO2
Total installed wind power capacityEWEA, BTM, and EER scenarios compared
2015 2020 20300
100
200
300
400
500
600
141230
400
179
312
509
148223
EWEA BTM EER
Source: EWEA 2011, BTM 2010, EER 2010
New wind capacity and growth ratesNew wind capacity
Onshore Offshore Total1991-2000 12,413 35 12,4482001-2010 69,157 2,908 72,0652011-2020 124,850 37,067 161,9162021-2030 132,352 109,083 241,435
Annual growth ratesOnshore Offshore Total
1991-2000 33% -2.60% 32.70%2001-2010 6.80% 33.10% 7.70%2011-2020 7.70% 21.30% 10%2021-2030 -5.20% 5.80% -0.50%
New wind capacity (1991-2030)
New wind capacity Annual growth rates
Onshore Offshore Total Onshore Offshore Total
1991-2000 12,413 35 12,448 33% -2.60% 32.70%
2001-2010 69,157 2,908 72,065 6.80% 33.10% 7.70%
2011-2020 124,850 37,067 161,916 7.70% 21.30% 10%
2021-2030 132,352 109,083 241,435 -5.20% 5.80% -0.50%
Wind energy in 2030 – EWEA targets
Onshore
Offshore Total
Installed capacity (GW) 250 150 400
Annual installations (GW)
10 13.7 23.7
Annual investments (bn€) 8.2 17.1 25.3Electricity production (TWh) 591 562 1,154
Wind energy in 2030
• Meeting 28.5% of EU electricity demand depending on total demand
• Producing 36% of total electricity generating capacity in the EU
• Equivalent to the consumption of 252 million average EU households
• Avoiding 646 Mt CO2 annually• Avoiding fuel costs of bn€ 51*• Avoiding bn€ 26 of CO2 cost*** Assuming IEA forecast, fuel cost equivalent to $108.2/bbl of oil** Assuming €40/t CO2
Wind energy share of EU electricity demand
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
23 83 182 330581
8731,154
2,9943,320 3,307
3,5243,690
3,9104,051
Wind energy production (TWh) EU reference (TWh)
Source: EWEA and EC 2010
Wind power share of installed capacity
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total installed capacity (GW) 532 575 627 878 920 1,003 1,041 1,111
Total installed wind capacity (GW)
2.5 13 41 84 141 230 324 400
Wind power's share of installed capacity
0.5% 2.25 6.5% 9.6% 15.3% 22.9% 31.1% 36.0%
Wind and CO2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mt of CO2avoidedbn €
CO2 avoided annually by wind energy
Annual CO2 cost avoided by wind
energyCost avoided (40€/tCO2)Cost avoided (25€/tCO2)Cost avoided (10€/tCO2)Mt of CO2 avoided
Avoided fuel costs from wind
2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
10
20
30
40
50
1.87 3.26 5.49 8.17 10.710.461.17
1.58
2.56
3.09
2.76
6.68
12.22
19.64
26.88
0.620000000000001
1.59
4.59
7.04
10.25
Coal Oil Gas Biomass and waste
2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
10
20
30
40
50
60
1.87 3.26 5.49 8.17 10.710.461.17
1.58
2.563.09
2.76
6.68
12.22
19.64
26.88
0.62
1.59
4.59
7.06
10.25
Coal Oil Gas Biomass and waste
European Commission fuel prices
International Energy Agency Historical price 11/07/2008 ($148/barrel)
2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
10
20
30
40
50
60
2.94
5.56
11.66
21.22
28.43
3.97 7.62 12.54 16.25
1.6
4.6
7.06
10.29
1.42
2.48
2.98
Coal Oil Gas Biomass and waste
Capital cost of onshore and offshore wind
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Onshore ECOnshore EWEA
Offshore ECOffshore EWEA
Wind power investments
2000200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
8200
9201
0201
1201
2201
3201
4201
5201
6201
7201
8201
9202
0202
1202
2202
3202
4202
5202
6202
7202
8202
9203
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
Onshore Investments (€2010 bn) Offshore Investments (€2010 bn)
(€bn)
Wind energy sector employment
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
147,419 140,544
174,174154,151
202,694
293,306
231,198
183,3736,374 13,931
22,458 34,945
86,731
169,550246,175 296,548
Onshore Offshore
Source: EWEA and EC 2010
(People)
Total 153,793 154,476 196,632 189,096 289,425 462,856 477,373 479,921
Installed capacity, electricity production, and share of EU demand
Onshorewind(GW)
Offshorewind(GW)
Total wind
energycapacity
(GW)
Averagecapacity
factoronshore
Averagecapacity
factoroffshore
TWhonshore
TWhoffshor
eTWhtotal
EU-27gross
electricityconsumpti
on
Windpower’sshare ofelectrici
tydemand
2020 190 40 230 26% 42.30% 433 148 581 3,690 16%
2030 250 150 400 27% 42.80% 591 562 1,154 4,051 29%
2050 275 460 735 29% 45% 699 1,813 2,512 5,000 50%
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
20
40
60
80
100
120
All RES (%) Wind (%)
Sources: 1971-1989 3E/EWEA assumption: 1990-2008 Eurostat: 2009 EWEA assumption: 2010-2020 NREAPs: 2020-2030 EWEA (based on PRIMES consumption 2030: 2031-2050 EWEA).
Contribution of electricity from RES and wind energy 1970-2010 + expected contribution 2011-2050 (% of consumption)
About the European Wind Energy AssociationEWEA is the voice of the wind industry, actively
promoting wind power in Europe and worldwide. It has over 700 members from almost 60 countries making EWEA the world's largest and most powerful wind energy network.
Rue d'Arlon 80B-1040 BrusselsBelgiumwww.ewea.org
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