Purdue Outlook Update 2011ag.purdue.edu/agecon/ExtensionPrograms...Central Indiana Cash Corn Futures...

Purdue Outlook Update 2011

September 13, 2010 1 Purdue Extension

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

2011 Indiana

Agricultural Outlook

Corinne Alexander &

Chris Hurt

[email protected]

Purdue University

September 13, 2010

Ethanol

World

Economic

Growth

Dollar Value


Purdue University

Surprises and Uncertainty!

Change Wheat Production

2010 vs. 2009

World -5.6%

Canada -15.1%

FSU-12 -15.7%

EU -22.4%

Ukraine -2.2%

U.S. + 2.2%


Purdue University

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

798081828384858687888990919293949596979899 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Hu

nd

red

s

Quarterly Real GDP: 1979-2010


Purdue University

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Perc

en

t

3 Month, 3 Year, 10 Year, and 20 Year Treasury Rates

20 Year Treasury

10 Year Treasury

3 Year Treasury

3 Month Treasury


Purdue University

mailto:[email protected]




Purdue University


Purdue University

Corn: USDA

9/10/10

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

Million Bu.

Carryin 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,386

Production 13,074 12,092 13,110 13,160

Total Supply 14,398 13,729 14,791 14,556

Feed & Residual 5,974 5,205 5,525 5,250

FSI Non-Fuel 1,338 1,316 1,365 1,390

FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 3,026 3,677 4,535 4,700

Export 2,436 1,858 1,980 2,100

Total Use 12,774 12,056 13,405 13,440

Ending Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,386 1,116

US Farm Price $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $4.00-$4.80

$4.40


Purdue University

19.6

13.9

24.9

11.2

16.7

5.0

10.0

14.9

19.2 18.1

19.5

16.3

11.4

9.4

19.8

17.5

11.6 12.8

13.9

10.7

8.3

29.9 28.5

32.0

25.5

28.4

25.0

29.6 29.0

32.9 32.3

28.8

24.3

20.3

16.2

19.2 17.6

15.2

17.0

18.9

17.1 16.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Perc

en

t o

f U

se

Corn: Ending Stocks

U.S. World

$4.47

$4.63

$4.72

$4.00

$4.10

$4.20

$4.30

$4.40

$4.50

$4.60

$4.70

$4.80

$4.90

$5.00

S O N D J F M A M J J A

$/B

u.

Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: 9-10-10

U.S.

Central Ind

Avg U.S.

Central Ind. Avg

Southern indiana

S. Ind Avg


Purdue University

Dec Futures =

$4.78

$4.63

0.00

0.08 0.14 0.14

0.19

0.12 0.14 0.14 0.17

-0.12 -0.12

-$0.20

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$4.00

$4.10

$4.20

$4.30

$4.40

$4.50

$4.60

$4.70

$4.80

$4.90

$5.00


Central Indiana Cash Corn Futures Forecast: 9-10-10


Purdue University

Dec Futures =

$4.78


Purdue University

19.9

26.3

30.7 33.0

35.5

38.4 39.0 39.6 40.1 39.5 38.9 38.2 37.6 37.0 36.4

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

16/1

7

17/1

8

18/1

9

19/2

0

20/2

1

Crop Years

Corn + Soybean Biofuel Acres by 2020

(Millions)




Purdue University

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

China Corn Trade: Million Bushels

Imports

Exports


Purdue University


Purdue University

Soybeans:USDA

9/10/10

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

Million Bushels

Carryin 574 205 138 150

Production 2,676 2,967 3,359 3,483

Total Supply 3,260 3,185 3,512 3,643

Seed & Residual 93 102 117 158

Crush 1,801 1,662 1,750 1,650

Exports 1,161 1,283 1,495 1,485

Total Use 3,055 3,047 3,362 3,293

Ending Stock 205 138 150 350

Farm Price $10.10 $9.97 $9.60 $9.15-$10.65

$9.90


Purdue University

17.9

13.6 13.4

10.7

14.0

7.9

5.4

7.6

13.4

10.7

8.8

7.1 6.4

4.5

8.6

15.6

18.6

6.7

4.5 4.8

10.6

20.79

18.11 18.86

15.79

18.97

14.40

11.82

19.01 18.42 19.04 19.71 19.33

22.44

20.15

23.61 24.63

28.08

23.01

19.92

26.75 25.19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

90/9

1

92/9

3

94/9

5

96/9

7

98/9

9

00/0

1

02/0

3

04/0

5

06/0

7

08/0

9

10/1

1

Perc

en

t o

f U

se

Soybean Carryover Stocks-to-Use

U.S. World

$9.85

$10.11

10.38

$9.60

$9.80

$10.00

$10.20

$10.40

$10.60

$10.80


Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: 9-10 -10

U.S.

Central Ind

Avg U.S.

Avg Central Ind

Southern Ind Cash

S. Ind Avg


Purdue University

Nov Futures =

$10.31

$10.11

0.00

0.16 0.18 0.14 0.13

0.04 0.08

0.15 0.13

0.00

-0.16

-$0.40

-$0.20

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$9.40

$9.60

$9.80

$10.00

$10.20

$10.40

$10.60


Central Indiana Cash Soybean Futures Forecast: 9-10-10


Purdue University

Nov Futures =

$10.31

Returns to On-Farm Storage




Purdue University

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000China Soybean Trade: Million Bushels

Imports

Exports


Purdue University

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Soybean Imports from the U.S.: 1990/91-2010/11 (Million Bu.)

China

Mexico

Japan

FAS

Data


Purdue University


Purdue University

Wheat: USDA

9/10/10

07/08 08/09 09/10 09/11

Million Bushels

Carryin 456 306 657 973

Production 2,067 2,499 2,216 2,264

Total Supply 2,635 2,932 2,991 3,338

Feed & Residual 30 255 150 170

Other Domestic 1,035 1,005 987 1,016

Exports 1,264 1,015 881 1,250

Total Use 2,329 2,275 2,018 2,436

End Stocks 306 657 973 902

Farm Price $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $4.95 - $5.65

$5.30


Purdue University

24.1

35.7

19.7 21.4

23.0

20.5

15.8

19.3

31.4

39.0 39.8

36.6 36.1

25.0 23.2 24.2

26.5

22.3

13.2

28.9

45.6

35.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

89/9

0

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

Pe

rce

nt

of

Us

e

Wheat: World and U.S. Endings Stocks

U.S. World


Purdue University

With $5.10 U.S. price averages expect

about $42/acre of 10 Crop ACRE Payments.

Crop in 2009 will average around $58/acre




Purdue University

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700China Wheat Trade: Million Bushels

Imports

Exports


Purdue University


Purdue University

Crops 2009

$/acre

2010

$/acre

2011

$/acre

% ∆

10 to 11

Continuous Corn 443 355 376 5.9%

Rotation Corn 425 342 361 5.6%

Rotation Soybeans 223 183 187 2.2%

Wheat 194 149 163 9.4%

Double Crop Soybeans 181 156 165 5.8%

Variable Costs (Average Cropland)


Purdue University

2011 Estimated Crop Budget:

Indiana: September 10, 2010

Prices Corn Soybeans Wheat

HarvestBasis $4.58 $10.26 $7.43

Expected

Basis -0.35 -0.40 -0.80

Expected Cash Price $4.23 $9.86 $6.63

Estimated Yield/Acre and Returns/Acre Above Variable Costs

Corn $4.23 Soybeans $9.86 Wheat $6.63

Wheat/DC

Beans

Land Quality bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre $/acre

Low 129.0 $220 39.0 $209 62.0 $260 $329

Average 161.0 $320 49.0 $296 70.0 $301 $422

High 193.0 $441 59.0 $385 84.0 $371 $544

Budget: Purdue Id-166 (August 2010)


Purdue University


Purdue University

-2.3%

-5.7%

4.6%

-2.3% -0.8%

1.3%

3.0%

1.7%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Beef Pork Broilers Turkey

Domestic Per Capita Availability: 2010




Purdue University

$50.05

$47.26 $47.09 $47.84

$41.24

$54.50 $55.00

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48

$50

$52

$54

$56

$58

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Barrow & Gilt prices and Per Capita Supplies

Price

Per Capita Supply


Purdue University

44

55

57

52 51

46

43

48

52

46

53

50

40

53

57

42 43

39

41

50

59 58

53 53

58

56

49

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

$/c

wt

Estimated Hog Prices and Costs Per Live Hundredweight:

Hog Price

Costs


Purdue University

$87.28 $85.41

$91.82 $92.27

$83.25

$94.00

$98.50

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

$78

$83

$88

$93

$98

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Choice Steer per Capita Supplies and Prices

Price Per Capita Supply


Purdue University

19.13

18.34

12.84

16.00 16.05

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11

$/C

wt.

U.S. All Milk Price


Purdue University


Purdue University

$2,100

$913

$2,173

$2,945

$4,240

$4,419

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$500$750

$1,000$1,250$1,500$1,750$2,000$2,250$2,500$2,750$3,000$3,250$3,500$3,750$4,000$4,250$4,500$4,750

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9

Indiana Land Values and Cash Rents: Purdue

Land Value

Cash Rent




Purdue University

Purdue Outlook Update 2011ag.purdue.edu/agecon/ExtensionPrograms...Central Indiana Cash Corn Futures...

Documents

Transcript of Purdue Outlook Update 2011ag.purdue.edu/agecon/ExtensionPrograms...Central Indiana Cash Corn Futures...