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PUMPKIN COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW

52 weeks to 03.11.2019 vs Prior Year

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What is Homescan? Nielsen Homescan® is a continuous panel of 10,000 households who record all take-home packed and fresh grocery from all retail outlets. The sample is

demographically and geographically representative of the Australian household population.

Each household is equipped with a small handheld terminal through which details of all purchasing are entered - product, quantity, price and outlet. This

information, along with the date of purchase, is linked with demographic details of the household and the household purchasing history. Data are projected for the

population as a whole.

Estimates produced from Nielsen Homescan® are subject to sampling variation which means that every number reported has a standard error associated with it.

For example at a Total National level, a 40% share of trade number, will be subject to a 1% standard error at a 95% confidence interval. This implies there is a

95% chance that the true value of the estimate lies between 39 to 41%.

Use of this Report This dashboard and accompanying reports are outputs of MT17017 Vegetable Cluster Consumer Insights Program and intended for use by Hort Innovation, the

Australian vegetable, sweetpotato and onion industries, and other stakeholders in the context of understanding and diagnosing market performance and

shopper behaviour. Any reproduction of the content of the online dashboard or reports and any part thereof requires prior written permission from Hort

Innovation and/or Nielsen. Users/recipients of the dashboard and reports are asked to ensure that report data is not presented in a false or misleading manner;

that the Nielsen name is not used to imply that Nielsen is the source of any claims by Hort Innovation or the recipient; that Nielsen copyright is noted over

Nielsen proprietary information; and that the reports (or the data contained therein) are not used in a manner that is detrimental or which is comparable with the

retail purchase measurement services provided by Nielsen, or in exchange for compensation of any kind.

Disclaimer Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited (Hort Innovation) and The Nielsen Company (Australia) Limited (Nielsen) make no representations and expressly

disclaim all warranties (to the extent permitted by law) about the accuracy, completeness, or currency of information in this dashboard and reports. Reliance on

any information provided by Hort Innovation or Nielsen is at your own risk. You are required to make your own independent decisions prior to acting on the

information having regard for your own judgement and the advice of professional advisors as appropriate. To the full extent permitted by law, neither Nielsen nor

Hort Innovation will be liable, in contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise, for any loss, expense or damage of any kind arising from your use or reliance

on the information contained in this dashboard and/or the reports.

Funding Statement This project has been funded by Hort Innovation, using the vegetable, onion and sweet potato research and development levies, and contributions from the

Australian Government. Hort Innovation is the grower-owned, not-for-profit research and development corporation for Australian horticulture.

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SUMMARY • In the previous 52 week period pumpkin declined from a volume (kg) sales, where dollar ($) sales

grew. While total vegetables maintained volume (kg) sales & grew dollar ($) sales

• Pumpkin saw volume sales decline by -6.3% & dollar sales grow +8.5%, where total vegetables sales saw volume & dollar sales at

+0.7% & +4.3% respectively.

• The price of pumpkin increased strongly as a rate well ahead of total vegetables, leading to fewer

buying household who purchased less volume kg on average while spending more.

• Decline in volume sales of pumpkin was driven by shoppers shifting their purchases to other crops,

however this was exacerbated by the lose of pumpkin buyers & reduced purchases of continual

pumpkin buyers.

• Senior Couples contribute a larger share of pumpkin sales than their contribution to total

vegetables. Young Transitionals growth in dollar sales for pumpkin far outperform their growth in

total vegetables.

• Waste continues to be the leading claimed reason consumers do not buy pumpkin more often.

Leading half & quarter pumpkin to be the most popular formats claimed to be purchased.

4

This artwork was created using Nielsen data.

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

PUMPKIN

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VEGETABLES MAINTAINED TOTAL AUSTRALIA VOLUME KG

SALES, WHERE PUMPKIN DECLINE ACROSS ALL RETAILERS However from a dollar sales perspective pumpkin almost doubled total vegetables national growth

Source: Nielsen Homescan. Major Supermarkets are Woolworths, Coles & ALDI

Total Veg & Pumpkin | Dollar Sales and Volume (kg) % change | Total Australia | 52 weeks to 03.11.2019 vs Prior Year

4.3%

8.5%

4.9% 7.5% 5.0%

15.7%

0.7%

8.1%

Total Veg $ Growth Pumpkin $ Growth

Dollar Growth

0.7%

-6.3%

-0.1%

-7.9%

4.4%

-1.5%

1.2%

-4.6%

Total Veg KG Growth Total Pumpkin KG Growth

Total Australia Major Supermarkets

Other Supermarkets Greengrocers & Markets

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TOTAL VEGETABLES SAW A MODEST INCREASE IN PRICE,

WHERE PUMPKIN SAW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE VS YEAR PRIOR Pumpkin saw double digit increase in price, other supermarkets led this, seeing +17.4% price increase

Source: Nielsen Homescan | Major Supermarkets comprise of Woolworths, Coles & Aldi

Pumpkin | Average price change | Total Australia | 52 weeks to 03.11.2019 vs Prior Year

15.8%

16.7%

17.4%

13.3%

3.6%

5.0%

0.6%

-0.4%

-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Total Australia

Major Supermarkets

Other Supermarkets

Greengrocers & Markets

Total Vegetables Pumpkin

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GREENGROCERS & MARKETS SOLD A LARGER PORTION OF

VOLUME KG SALES COMPARED TO DOLLAR SALES FOR PUMPKIN All retailers saw a decline in volume sales with strong value sales increases due to increase in price

Source: Nielsen Homescan | Major Supermarkets comprise of Woolworths, Coles & Aldi

Pumpkin | Retailer Share of Trade and Change | Total Australia | 52 weeks to 03.11.2019 vs Prior Year

8.5%

7.5%

15.7%

8.1%

-6.3%

-7.9%

-1.5%

-4.6%

-40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0%

Total Australia

Major Supermarkets

Other Supermarkets

Greengrocers & Markets

Volume (kg) Change Dollar Change

70.1% 61.7%

11.6%

12.3%

18.3% 26.0%

Dollar Share Volume (kg) share

Major Supermarkets Other Supermarkets Greengrocers & Markets

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HOUSEHOLDS DECLINED IN THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL VOLUME

& SPENT MORE THAN THE PRIOR YEAR DUE TO PRICE INCREASE This was consistent with total vegetables, despite some key competitive crops also seeing a drop in average dollar sales

100 75 94 65 93 73 26

100 73 93 63

93 71 24

TOTALVEGETABLES PUMPKIN CARROTS CAULIFLOWER POTATO SWEETPOTATO EGGPLANT

Percentage of buying households

2018 2019

68.6 7.7 13.4 6.3 14.3 8.8 4.1

68.3 7.4 13.2 6.4 14.2 8.7 4.1

TOTAL VEGETABLES PUMPKIN CARROTS CAULIFLOWER POTATO SWEETPOTATO EGGPLANT

Average buying occasions

550.80 18.94 22.14 18.74 56.70 22.76 11.55

564.70

20.66 22.02 20.42 55.28 24.01 12.61

TOTAL VEGETABLES PUMPKIN CARROTS CAULIFLOWER POTATO SWEETPOTATO EGGPLANT

Average amount spent ($)

118.7 8.4 12.5 2.7 24.1 10.7 4.2

117.5 7.9 12.3 2.7 23.6 10.4 4.0

TOTAL VEGETABLES PUMPKIN CARROTS CAULIFLOWER POTATO SWEETPOTATO EGGPLANT

Average weight purchased (kg)

Pumpkin | Key Performance Indicators | Total Australia | 52 weeks to 03.11.2019 vs Prior Year

Source: Nielsen Homescan

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27% 28% 27%

28%

31%

33% 35%

36% 35%

31% 30%

29% 30%

26% 27%

24% 26%

28%

31%

33% 34%

33% 32%

30%

27% 28%

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

2.32 2.55 2.32 2.41 2.26 2.15 2.18 2.44 2.52 2.81 2.86 2.62 2.65 2.63 2.97 2.80 2.71 2.74 2.83 2.91 2.89 2.83 2.85 2.71 2.58 2.86

1.0 1.0

1.0

1.0 1.0

1.1

1.2 1.2

1.2

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

1.0 1.0

1.0 0.9

1.0 1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2 1.2 1.2

1.1 1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Percentage of buying households Average buying occasions Dollar ($) Sales Per Trip Volume kg Sales Per Trip

Source: Nielsen Homescan

Pumpkin | Trended Key Performance Indicators | Total Australia | 26 X 4 weekly data to 03.11.2019

LOOKING AT SEASONAL TREND, PUMPKIN SAW FEWER

HOUSEHOLDS PURCHASING DURING PEAK SEASON THIS YEAR During this peak season households purchased similar volumes per trip as prior year while paying more

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Note All Other Vegetables includes; asparagus, herbs, mushrooms, prepared vegetables, peas(all), sprouts(all) & tomatoes.

Source: Nielsen Homescan | Note: 104 week panel file used.

Pumpkin | Source of Volume| Total Australia | 52 weeks to 03.11.2019 vs Prior Year

-6.3%

0.0%

-1.6% -1.7%

-3.0%

TotalNew/Lost Vegetable

Buyers New/Lost Pumpkin Buyers Retained Pumpkin Buyers Switching to Pumpkin

DECLINE IN PUMPKIN VOLUME SALES DRIVEN BY SHOPPERS

SHIFTING SPEND INTO OTHER VEGETABLES This was worsened by the buying households that reduced their purchases or stopped buying pumpkin

0.2% 0.1%

-0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%

-0.3%

-0.4% -0.5%

-0.6% -0.7%

BROCCOLI (ALL) EGGPLANT SWEETPOTATO BEANS CABBAGE ZUCCHINI SWEET CORN LETTUCE CARROTS FRESH SALAD ONIONS POTATO ALL OTHERVEGETABLES

CUCUMBERS

Switching

to/from

Pumpkin

Volume

Growth

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5.6% 5.9% 5.5% 6.1%

11.3% 12.2% 11.7% 11.1%

12.4% 14.5% 13.5% 13.2%

7.7% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2%

21.2% 14.3% 17.7% 15.3%

21.0% 22.8% 22.1%

21.4%

20.8% 24.4% 24.0% 27.7%

Buying Households Dollar ($) Sales Buying Households Dollar ($) Sales

Start Up Families Small Scale Families Bustling Families Young Transitionals Independent Singles Established Couples Senior Couples

SENIOR COUPLES MAKE UP A LARGER PORTION OF PUMPKIN

BUYERS & DOLLAR SALES, THAN THEIR SHARE OF VEGETABLES Young Transitionals dollar sales growth in pumpkin far out perform their growth in total vegetables

Source: Nielsen Homescan

Total Vegetables & Pumpkin | Life Stage | Buyers & Sales Distribution | Total Australia | 52 weeks to 03.11.2019

Total Vegetables Pumpkin

+ 3.6 %

- 0.2 %

+ 1.2 %

- 0.9 %

+ 7.5 %

Share Share Share Share % change in # of

buying households

% change in

dollar sales % change in # of

buying households

% change in

dollar sales

+ 4.6 %

+ 1.2 %

+ 6.1 %

+ 1.4 %

+ 5.4 %

+ 5.5 %

+ 11.4 %

- 0.6 %

+ 2.7 %

+ 0.4 %

- 3.3 %

+ 1.2 %

- 3.2 %

+ 7.7 %

+ 9.6 %

- 5.6 %

+ 6.3 %

+ 9.7 %

+ 7.0 %

+ 8.2 %

+19.6 %

+ 19.7 %

+ 2.6 %

12

This artwork was created using Nielsen data.

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

CLAIMED BEHAVIOUR

AND PREPARED PUMPKIN

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6

6

9

9

20

20

31

37

4

6

9

11

16

22

35

37

5

6

9

11

13

21

36

38

I grow my own

Inconsistent or poor quality

Short shelf life

I don't know how to fit any more vegetables into my dailydiet

Expensive

I want a variety of vegetables in my diet

I consume enough to balance my diet

I don't want to waste any

September

June

March

Q9. Which of the following reasons best describe why you don't buy Pumpkins more often?

Pumpkin | Attitudinal Data 2019

DESPITE HIGHER PRICES, “EXPENSIVE” FELL AS A CLAIMED

REASON FOR NOT PURCHASING PUMPKIN MORE OFTEN Instead wastage continued to be the number 1 reason & grew in number of claimed responses

2019 Top Barriers to Purchase More Often

Source: Attitudinal reports prepared by Nielsen for Hort Innovation, survey sample n=300, fieldwork March from 28/03/2019 to 02/04/2019, June from 20/06/2019 to 25/06/2019,

September from 12/09/2019 to 17/09/2019 for the Australian market. Copyright © 2019 Horticulture Innovation Australia.

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51 41

27 29 7

55

38

31 25

5

45

41

30 29

5

Half pumpkin Quartered pumpkin Whole pumpkin Pumpkin wedge Pre-packaged incontainer/bag/tray

March June September

Pumpkin | Attitudinal Data 2019

CONSUMER PURCHASES BY FORMAT

Q5. In which fresh formats do you typically purchase Pumpkins?

THIS URGE TO AVOID WASTE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE

POPULARITY OF SMALLER PUMPKIN PRODUCT FORMATS Half pumpkin continued as the most popular, though fewer buyers claimed to purchase this format recently

Source: Attitudinal reports prepared by Nielsen for Hort Innovation, survey sample n=300, fieldwork March from 28/03/2019 to 02/04/2019, June from 20/06/2019 to 25/06/2019,

September from 12/09/2019 to 17/09/2019 for the Australian market. Copyright © 2019 Horticulture Innovation Australia.

This artwork was created using Nielsen data.

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.