Pulse PointScottish referendum; causes

and consequences

Scottish referendum; causes and consequences

In one week’s time we will know if the people of Scotland have decided to become and independent nation. The ballot will be held on Thursday with the results coming in early Friday morning and with polls over the past week showing the two campaigns to be separated by just a few points, the final vote could go either way.The stakes are high and already there are some unionists looking at who is to blame if the Scots vote yes. Former prime minister John Major places responsibility for the end of the union squarely at the Labour party’s door. He insists that it was they who not only opened the door to independence with devolution of powers in 2001, but in his opinion, they also played upon anti-Tory and anti-English feeling in order to win Scottish votes.

Scottish referendum; causes and consequences

Others are blaming the Better Together campaign for being too negative and using scare tactics rather than promoting the idea of enhanced powers to Scotland instead of independence or ‘devo-max’.Whichever way the vote goes, there will be big changes for Scotland and England. If the yes vote wins, there will be the months of negotiation to disentangle the union, and the transformation of the political landscape in the rest of the UK. Even if the Scots decide to stay in the union, there will be a process of transferring powers to Scotland. If the result is as close as it is expected to be a no vote may not be the end of the issue. Nationalists may have grounds to demand another referendum on the question if the UK leaves the EU.

Pulse points• Why did Westminster agree to a referendum on independence?• What are the arguments for independence?• What will be the political and practical consequences of a yes vote?• What are the feelings of the rest of the UK? Should they have been given

the chance to vote?• What is the likely future for the political parties and their leaders following

the result?• What have been the main features of the Yes and No campaigns and the

key areas of dispute?• How has media coverage and individual characters influenced the

campaigning, outside of the main issues?

Key issues of the campaign

• What would happen with Trident if Scotland dispenses with a nuclear deterrent?

• What currency would Scotland have?• Who owns North Sea oil/gas and what happens to off-shore

wind-power rights?• What happens to MPs in Scotland?• How much debt would Scotland take on?• Would there be a separate Scottish military?• What would happen to the BBC?

Key issues of the campaign

• What would happen to Scotland's membership of the EU, the UN and IMF?

• Would there be border controls between Scotland and the rest of the UK?

• Would Scottish students be charged EU tuition rates, and vice versa?

• What would be the role of the Queen?• Would Scotland keep the BBC?• Would Scottish athletes still be able to compete for team GB?

Opinion Polls

Background to the referendumIn 1979 a referendum was held on the question of a devolved Scottish assembly. The Yes vote won with 51.6% of the vote, but the turnout failed to reach the minimum 40% for the vote to be enacted. Many nationalists felt cheated and throughout the 80s and 90s discontent with Westminster and the Conservative party grew. When the Labour Party came to power in 1997, they held a referendum on the devolution of powers and the yes vote established a Scottish Parliament in Holyrood. The Parliament was based on a system of proportional representation, theoretically ensuring that no single party dominate, and that power would be shared in coalitions, however in 2011, the Scottish National Party secured a majority and formed a government.

Background to the referendumElected on a mandate of independence, it would have been almost impossible for Westminster to ignore the overwhelming democratic wish of the Scots and deny them the vote. Therefore the date was set and election rules formed. It was decided that the referendum should be a simple yes/no question on referendum. "Should Scotland be an independent country?" All those aged over 16 who live in Scotland would be elegable to vote. This includes those born outside Scotland and excludes Scots who live outside the country.

The CampaignsIn calling the no campaign ‘Better Together’ the pro-unionists were acknowledging their greatest challenge from the start. Their campaign would largely be a negative one, pointing out the dangers of separation and playing on the fear of the unknown. For every idealistic promise of the Yes campaign, Better Together would be raining on the parade; no to sharing the pound, no to EU independent membership, no to writing off their share of the national debt. Better Together warned that businesses would leave an independent Scotland and prices would rise. While the Yes campaign was imagining the potential of independence, Better Together was seen as ‘scaremongering’.

The Campaigns

The pro-union campaign, headed by Alistair Darling, saw it as essential that Conservatives, especially the Prime Minister, maintained distance from the campaign. Deeply unpopular in Scotland, it was feared that Tories could actually win Yes votes from Scots expressing their dislike of the ‘Westminster elite’. Critics of Better Together such as former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, say the campaign should have promoted greater devolved powers as a focal issue earlier, instead of running a ‘negative’ campaign. On the other side, critics of the Yes campaign have accused Alex Salmond of denying the inconvenient truths of separation and misleading the voters by insisting that Scotland will be able to Join the EU, keep the pound, and that North Sea oil will last for much longer than most expert opinions would suggest.

Personalities and the media

The question of national identity and independence is an emotive issue, and inevitably the debate has taken a personal tone, with two sides passionately battling to save the union/ secure independence.The media have been accused by both sides of bias; however most claims have been made by the Yes campaign who feel that a London-centric media have been promoting the Better Together agenda.Both sides have made the most of celebrity endorsement, with David Bowie, JK Rowling and Barack Obama supporting the union and Irvine Welsh, Peter Mullen and The Proclaimers backing independence.

Personalities and the media

Political personalities have also been a feature of the run up to the vote. The unpopularity of the Prime Minister for example has made difficult decisions for the Better Together camp. They have tried to avoid Scotland vs the Westminster elite, whilst at the same time showing that the government is passionately interested in Scotland. Alex Salmond has been singled out for both praise, for bringing Scotland to the brink of independence- and criticism, for refusing to acknowledge the problems which will face the new country. Undoubtedly the First Minister is so identified with independence, should the endeavour fail, many will expect him to resign the SNP leadership.

"People can feel it is a bit like a general election, that you make a decision and five years later you can make another decision... if you're fed up with the effing Tories give them a kick. This is totally different from a general election, this is a decision about not the next five years, it's a decision about the next century." – British Prime Minister David Cameron.