Puget Sound Salmon and Climate:Puget Sound Salmon and Climate:What does this have to do with Earth System What does this have to do with Earth System AnalysisAnalysisand Sustainability Science?and Sustainability Science?

R.C. Francis, N. Mantua

Center for Science in theEarth Systems (CSES)

University of Washington

Sustainability Science: Understand the fundamental character of interactions between nature and society.

Kates et al 2001. Sustainability science. Science 292:641-642

Earth System Analysis: Understand the earth system, which is made up of the ecosphere and the human factor, and develop paradigms for its sustainable development.

Schellnhuber. 1999. Earth system analysis and the

second Copernican revolution. Nature 402:C19-C23

‘Earth system’ analysis:achieving holisticperspective

H.J. SchellnhuberNature 402 Dec 99

1) ‘Birds-eye’ principle

‘Earth system’ analysis:achieving holisticperspective

H.J. SchellnhuberNature 402 Dec 99

1) ‘Digital-mimicry’ principle

‘Earth system’ analysis:achieving holisticperspective

H.J. SchellnhuberNature 402 Dec 99

1) ‘Lilliput’ principle

‘Earth system’ analysis:achieving holisticperspective

H.J. SchellnhuberNature 402 Dec 99

1) ‘Lilliput’ principle

Sustainability Science: Start with outcomes to be avoided and work backward to identify relatively safe corridors for a sustainability transition

Kates et al 2001. Sustainability science. Science 292:641-642

Earth System Analysis: Least speculative and most essential principle of earth-system control is the creation of a manual of minimum safety standards for operating the earth system – “guardrails” for responsible management.

Schellnhuber. 1999. Earth system analysis and the second

Copernican revolution. Nature 402:C19-C23

Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES)

• What is the concern here – Salmon or the Puget Sound Basin?

• What are some important nature-society interactions having to do with Puget Sound salmon?

• Within the context of these interactions, what are some important outcomes to be avoided?

• How might we begin to achieve a more holistic perspective of the Puget Sound earth system?– Birds-eye– Digital-mimicry– Lilliput

Some outcomes to be avoided• Loss of salmon biocomplexity• Further degradation of freshwater,

estuarine and marine habitat• Loss of Puget Sound marine

fisheries and culture• Regarding climate as the cause of

our problems.

Some things to do:• Better understand relationships between

habitat and biocomplexity• Regard climate variability as a context

for fishery resources.• Restore natural climate insurance that

wild salmon populations evolved to survive and thrive in the face of past environmental change.

• Restore Puget Sound marine fisheries and culture.

• Focus on understanding the past rather than predicting the future.

Clarence liked rowing because you were approaching life backward. You could clearly see the past, and you glanced quickly at the future over your shoulder mostly so you wouldn’t run into anything destructively immovable. Too much of the future was predestined by the behavior of others for you to be in control.

Jim Harrison, True North

Science and management are Science and management are linkedlinked

(Holling 1993 Ecol. App.)1st stream science

• System is predictable, science of parts– ex: the population

• Experimental, seeks explanation and prediction

• Implies we need certainty before taking action

Command and Control Management• Problem is perceived, a solution for its control

is developed (e.g. low salmon production, build a hatchery)

• Reduce variability to make the system more predictable

2nd stream science• Unpredictable, science of integration

– ex: the ecosystem

• Comparative, seeks understanding, accepts inherent unknowability and unpredictability

The Golden Rule• “Resource management should strive

to retain critical types and ranges of variations in ecosystems” (Holling and Meffe 1996)

Science and management are Science and management are linkedlinked