Public Panic may have stopped nuclear power for 50 years Nuclear Engineers emphasize safety...
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Public Panic may have stopped nuclear power for 50 years
Nuclear Engineers emphasize safety improvements
Radiation experts and basic scientists are silent
Cost determined by virulent public opposition
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These are the locations of measurement
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British Journal of CancerVol. VIII, March 1954, No. 1
Sir Richard Doll & Peter Armitage(repeated 50 years later)
Cancer caused by a series of steps:
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Effects of Low Doses Probability of Causation
and implications for Public Policy
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The Future of Nuclear Power may depend upon a Rational Approach to
Risks of Radiation Exposure and their regulation.
What are they?Do we compensate those exposed?
If not what?
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LINEARITY AT LOW DOSES
IS USUAL!!
Walking blindfold acrossHarvard Square is safe:
(Risk (R) = 0)IF THERE ARE NO CARS!
The risk (R) increases roughly in proportion
to the number of cars.
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Acute Effects
Characteristics• One dose or dose accumulated in a
short time KILLS• 1/10 the dose repeated 10 times
DOES NOT KILL
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CHRONIC EFFECTS including CANCER
Characteristics
A dose just sub-acute can give effects if repeated.
Usually not all people affected - dose response is flatter
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Typically an accumulated Chronic Dose = Acute LD50
gives CANCER to 10% of the population.
E.g. LD50 for radiation is about 350 Rems.
At 350 Rems about 10% of exposed get cancer.
(more or less depending on rate of exposure)
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Early Optimism Based on Poisons
There is a threshold below which nothing happens
__________J.G. Crowther 1924
Probability of Ionizing a CellLinear with Dose
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Repair Mechanisms
BUTDoes the Mechanism Reject/Repair:ALL DAMAGED CELLS UP TO XXXX?
(implying a threshold)OR 99.999% of CELLS
INDEPENDENT OF DOSE
WE DON’T KNOW
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CRITICAL ISSUES FOR LINEARITY
• The POLLUTANT actsin the same way as
whatever else influences the CANCER RATE
• CANCERS caused by the POLLUTANTare INDISTINGUISHABLE from other cancers
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Probability of Causation
Come let us Cast Lots to find out who is to blame for this ordeal.
Jonah 1:7
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Probability of Causation
equals
Risk from Substance
divided by
Risk from all Causes
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Risk from all causes can be approximated as the Prevalence in a
similar Population.
If the cancer is rare, POC can be high even if the risk is low.
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E.gPOC for berylliosis is unity for
beryllium as a cause
POC for asbestos exposure as a cause of mesothelioma among males is 80%
and 20% among females
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Administrative Usesof the POC concept:
Aluminum workers in Quebec (compensate if POC > 50%)
Radiation Workers in UK (compensate if POC >20%)
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Compensation for Radiation Exposures
1985 - Veteran “Downwinders”(if upper 99th percentile of POC > 50%;
effectively POC >5%)
1996 - UK Workers(if POC >20%)
2000 - Old AEC employees (if upper 99th percentile of POC > 50%;
effectively POC >5%)
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Medical CausationGeneral Causation:
the Postulated Cause is Known to Cause the Disease under some conditions
(POC>0)
Specific Causation, exposure and other circumstances make POC large enough (>50%)
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What do the Courts say?
US Supreme Court
DaubertJoiner
Kumho Tire
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General Causation needs a Risk Ratio that is significant,
statistically and otherwise
Usually RR>2 (POC >50%)
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Rule to avoid frivolous lawsuits:The postulated cause must be
“more likely than not” POC>50%
But Rutherford instruction
If total asbestos exposure is a proven cause, it can be assigned to individual
suppliers even if POC < 50%.
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RISK of respiratory ailments
due to LIFETIME EXPOSURE toAIR POLLUTION is
3 to 5% average in the USA!
POC varies from 30% to 80%
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If I develop leukemia:The POC from my Medical Exposures
would be over 50%
Can I sue using the Rutherford case?
Minister of Health, UKUS State Department
Harvard UniversityCommonwealth of Massachussets
ONRDOE (AEC)
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Assignment of a Cause does not mean that Compensation is payable.
E.g.Chemotherapy agents are often
carcinogenic and increase risk of future cancers even as they cure.
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Go back to the beginning: Does it make sense?
Can we study those cohorts where NIH calculate POC near 50%?
Risk Ratio of 2?
Those x-rayed just post world war II?