Public opinion landscape - The Economy
-
Upload
gloverparkgroup -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
889 -
download
4
Transcript of Public opinion landscape - The Economy
The Public Opinion Landscape – The Economy September 23, 2013
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
2. Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy
3. Views on the Debt Ceiling
4. The Financial Crisis: Five Years Later
Slide
2
10
14
18
2
Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
3
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 18, 2013
Widening Gap
The trend shows that the gap
between those who are optimistic and pessimistic about the future of our
country is beginning to widen.
AS WE EXIT THE SUMMER MONTHS, OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO FADE
WRONG TRACK 61.1%
RIGHT DIRECTION 26.3%
4
Source: Gallup Poll
FIVE YEARS LATER: CONFIDENCE IN ECONOMY IS UP, BUT JOB FEARS REMAIN INTACT
Before 9/15/2008
One month later
One year later
Today, September
2013
Gallup Economic Confidence Index -39 -65 -23 -16
% Name the economy as MIP 41 47 29 21
% “good time” to find a quality job 20 14 10 27
% Name unemployment as MIP 7 3 15 17
% Worried about being laid off^ 15 n/a 31 29
% Worried that benefits will be cut^ 27 n/a 46 43
% Worried that pay will be reduced^ 16 n/a 32 31
Average daily consumer spending $113 $85 $60 $86
MIP = “Most Important Problem” ^ Based on U.S. adults employed full or part time
5
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013
ONE IN FIVE AMERICANS DON’T SEE ANY ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT IN LAST 5 YEARS
It’s been five years since the beginning of the financial crisis and the economic downturn that followed. Compared with the worst of that crisis, from your perspective has the economy improved a great deal, improved somewhat, improved just a little, or not improved at all?
10%
35% 32%
22%
A great deal Somewhat Just a little Not at all
1% volunteered
that economy
has gotten worse
6
During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
17% 23%
19% 19% 20% 25%
18% 18%
9%
28%
18% 21%
24%
44%
35%
42% 46%
41% 45%
38% 32% 34%
33%
49% 47% 48%
37%
40%
38% 33% 35%
27% 36%
42% 45%
38% 32% 31%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Will stay the same
Will get worse
Will get better
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, September 5-8, 2013
AMERICANS VIEW ECONOMY AS STAYING THE SAME OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT YEAR
7
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013
POLITICAL PREDISPOSITIONS INFLUENCE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS, AS DOES INCOME
67%
43%
22%
58% 48%
39%
% seeing improvement in the economy
8
ECONOMIC CONCERNS LOWEST OF OBAMA PRESIDENCY; BUT STILL REMAIN ON TOP
Percentage of Americans Mentioning Economic Issues as Most Important Problem
Most Important Problem – September 2013
Economy in general (21%) Healthcare (10%)
Unemployment / jobs (17%) Situation in Syria (8%)
Dissatisfaction with government (16%) Federal budget deficit / Federal debt (5%)
Source: Gallup Poll, September 5-8, 2013
9
JOB SITUATION IS THE TOP ECONOMIC WORRY
Which of the following national economic issues worries you most?
The job situation (40%) The federal budget deficit (24%)
Rising prices (22%) The condition of the financial and housing
markets (10%) Other / None / Don’t know (4%)
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013
10
Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy
11
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling…?
Issue NET APPROVE
NET DISAPPROVE
The economy 43% 56% Health care policy 42% 55%
Foreign affairs 40% 57% The federal budget deficit 36% 61%
The situation in Syria 31% 63%
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 6-8, 2013
OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB APPROVAL RATING FADES; MAJORITIES DISAPPROVE HANDLING OF VARIOUS ISSUES
DISAPPROVE 51.0%
APPROVE 43.2%
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 20, 2013
Overall Job Approval
60% 59% 58%
45% 45%
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Reagan(1985)
Eisenhower(1957)
Clinton(1997)
G.W. Bush(2005)
Obama(2013)
Nixon(1973)
12
OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL COMPARABLE TO HIS PREDECESSOR
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in September of First Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating Average
September 9 - 15
HALF OF AMERICANS THINK OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES INFLATE FEDERAL DEBT, FAIL TO IMPROVE ECONOMY
13
Run up a record federal deficit while failing to
significantly improve the
economy
50%
Help to avoid an even worse
economic crisis, and are fueling
economic recovery
37%
And, in your opinion did President Obama’s economic policies…
Source: Allstate/National Journal Heartland Poll XVIII, September 3-7, 2013
DK/REF 14%
14
Views on the Debt Ceiling
15
AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON THE DEBT LIMIT, EVEN WITH FEARS OF DAMAGE
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013
What do you think is better – for Congress to raise the debt limit so the government can keep paying its bills and obligations or for Congress not to raise the debt limit and let the government default on paying its bills and obligations?
46% 43%
Raise the debtlimit
Not raise the debtlimit
If the government cannot borrow money to fund its operations and pay its debts, do you think that would or would not cause serious harm to the U.S. economy?
73%
22%
Would Would not
Note: “No opinion” results not shown.
16
AMERICANS MOSTLY OPPOSED TO RAISING THE DEBT CEILING WITH CONDITIONS
Source: Reason-Rupe Poll, September 4-8, 2012
Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if equal amounts of budget cuts are made, or not?
45% 46%
9%
Favor Oppose DK/REF
Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if funding for Obamacare is cut off, or not?
Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if not raising the debt ceiling means the U.S. defaults on its debt, or not?
35%
56%
10%
Favor Oppose DK/REF
35%
55%
10%
Favor Oppose DK/REF
17
OBAMA HAS UPPER HAND ON PERCEIVED WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013
Do you think [Obama / the Republican leaders in Congress] is/are doing too much, too little, or about the right amount compared with [the Republican leaders in Congress / Obama] on a budget plan?
Note: “No opinion” results not shown.
10% 10%
49%
64%
36%
22%
Barack Obama Republican leaders in Congress
Doing too much Doing too little About the right amount
18
Financial Crisis: Five Years Later
19
FIVE YEARS AFTER CRASH, DOUBTS ABOUT U.S. ECONOMIC SYSTEM
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013
Thinking about the U.S. economic system in general, compared with before the 2008 financial crisis, do you think the U.S. economic system is more secure today than it was before the 2008 economic crisis or no more secure today than it was before the 2008 economic crisis?
68%
45%
80%
63%
29%
51%
16%
33%
No more secure More secure
Total
Republican
Democrat
Independent
20
MANY SEE AN UNEVEN ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013
Thinking about the recession that began in 2008. Please tell me whether you think each of the following has fully recovered from the recession, partially recovered, or hardly recovered at all?
Fully recovered
Partially recovered
Hardly recovered DK
Household incomes 2% 42% 54% 2%
Job situation 2% 45% 52% 1%
Real estate values 4% 59% 33% 4%
Stock market 21% 53% 18% 9%
21
GOV’T POLICIES SEEN AS DOING LITTLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS, POOR AND SMALL BUSINESSES
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013
Thinking about the federal government’s economic policies following the recession that began in 2008. Do you think these policies have helped [INSERT] a great deal, a fair amount, not too much, or not at all?
40%
41%
38%
6%
6%
8%
28%
26%
21%
23%
21%
18%
25%
27%
33%
67%
71%
72%
Large banks & financialinstitutions
Large corporations
Wealthy people
Small businesses
Middle class people
Poor people
A great deal A fair amount Not much / Not at all
Note: “DK/REF” results not shown.
22
DEMOCRATS SEE TOO LITTLE FINANCIAL REGULATION, REPUBLICANS SEE TOO MUCH
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013
In regulating financial institutions and markets, which comes closer to your view?
Total Rep Dem Ind The government has gone too far regulating financial institutions and markets, making it harder for the economy to grow
43% 64% 26% 41%
The government has not gone far enough in regulating financial institutions and markets, leaving the country at risk for another financial crisis
49% 32% 62% 51%
Don’t know / Refused 8% 4% 11% 8%
23
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013
VERY FEW AMERICANS ARE CONFIDENT THAT COUNTRY CAN AVOID ANOTHER CRISIS
6%
32% 35%
26%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Very confident Somewhatconfident
Not so confident Not at all confident
How confident are you, if at all, that the country will be able to avoid another financial crisis in the future – very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all ?
62% Not confident
37% Confident
24
TWO-THIRDS SAY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS FAILED TO TAKE ADEQUATE STEPS TO PREVENT ANOTHER FINANCIAL CRISIS
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013
Do you think the federal government has or has not taken adequate measures to prevent another financial crisis in the future?
Has not 66%
Has 28%
No opinion 7%
25
MORE THAN SIX IN TEN SAY THE COUNTRY’S FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE FAILED TO PUT SUFFICIENT SAFEGUARDS IN PLACE
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013
Do you think the country’s banks and other financial institutions have or have not taken adequate measures to prevent another financial crisis in the future?
Have not 62%
Have 27%
No opinion 11%
26
AMERICANS STILL ANGRY WITH BANKERS FOR FINANCIAL CRISIS
The government was right to bail out banks and other financial institutions during the financial crisis.
Source: Ipsos-Reuters Poll, September 6-10, 2013
23%
44%
22%
Neither agree or disagree
Disagree
Agree
The government has sufficiently prosecuted bankers for their role in the financial crisis.
20%
53%
15%
Neither agree or disagree
Disagree
Agree
Note: “Don’t know” results not shown.
YET, IMAGE OF BANKING INDUSTRY MAKING A SLOW COMBACK
Source: Gallup Poll, August 7-11, 2013
47% 46% 52%
46% 46%
56% 50%
36%
28% 26% 30%
25% 33%
20% 24%
20% 17% 22%
17% 18%
37%
51% 54% 47%
53%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Very/somewhat positive Very/somewhat negative
For each of the following business sectors in the United States, please say whether your overall view of it is very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or very negative.
Note: “Neutral” and “No opinion” results not shown.
AMERICANS’ CONFIDENCE IN BANKS UP FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS
28
Source: Gallup Poll, June 1-4, 2013
The percentage of Americans saying they
have a great deal or quite a lot (26%) of
confidence in banks is now about the same as
those expressing little or no confidence (28%).
June 1-4 %
Great deal 10
Quite a lot 16
Some 45
Very little 26
None (vol.) 2
No opinion 1
29
BUT AMERICANS SPLIT ON WHETHER WALL STREET HELPS THE ECONOMY GROW & CREATE JOBS
Source: Ipsos-Reuters Poll, September 6-10, 2013
Wall Street banks and traders help the U.S. economy grow and create jobs.
Agree 26%
Disagree 30%
Neither agree or disagree
31%
Don’t know 13%
30
GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt ([email protected])