Slide 1

Public Opinion and Political SocializationAP US GovernmentMs. Walker

Linkage InstitutionsA linkage institution provides a link between both the branches of government and more importantly between the government and the people (the electorate). Examples: Civic Organizations, The Media, Voter Participation, and Political Parties

What is Public Opinion?What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time.Public Opinion Polls: Interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population.

Public OpinionThe federal government has often had a large budget deficit, but the people want a balanced budgetCourts have ordered that children be bused in order to balance the schools racially, but the people oppose busing.Does public opinion matter?The struggle between the publics would protect liberty. Madison.

What is Public Opinion?A collective attitude of the citizens on a given issue or questionOpinion Polling: interviewing a sample of citizens to estimate public opinion as a whole (modern tool: 1930s)http://sunnylandsclassroom.org/Asset.aspx?id=10

What is Public Opinion?Public opinion is based on one of two theories:Majoritarian Model of Democracy: Government by the people is interpreted a government by the majority of the peoplePluralist Model of Democracy: Government by the people is taken to mea government by people operating through competing interest groups.

What is Public Opinion?Majoritarian and Pluralist models differ greatly in their assumptions about the role of public opinion in government.Majoritarian Model: government should do what the majority wants

Plurality ModelPlurality Model: The public as a whole seldom demonstrates clear, consistent opinions on the day to day issues of government. Sub-groups often express opinions- Government institutions should allow the free expression of opinions by minority publics. Democracy is at work when the opinions of many different publics clash openly and fairly over govt. policy.

The Distribution of Public Opinionhttp://www.gallup.com/tag/Healthcare.aspxhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/123989/Americans-Healthcare-Reform-Five-Key-Realities.aspx

The Distribution of Public OpinionThree Types of Distribution:Skewed- one response is larger Bimodel- evenNormal- Bell curve

The Gallup PollGeorge Gallup (1901-1983)Polls have played a key role in defining issues of concern to the public.

http://www.gallup.com/corporate/21364/george-gallup-19011984.aspx

Efforts to Influence and Measure Public OpinionFederalist Papers: First AttemptCommon Sense/The CrisisEducated middle class emerges mid 1800s becomes more vocal about issuesUncle Toms CabinWWI: Wilson and the Committee on Public InformationCan the government manipulate public opinion?

Efforts to Influence and Measure Public OpinionPublic Opinion Polling: 1930sScientific MethodologySurvey DataStraw Polls- unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policiesToday: Sophisticated techniques measure public opinion- products and politics (Internet)

How Public Opinion is MeasuredElection Resultshttp://www.270towin.com/http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/specials/demographic_map/Number of phone calls, faxes or e-mails on a particular issuePublic Opinion Survey

Public Opinion Survey

Tend to be accurateCan be deceiving: Slight differences in question wording or question placement wording will affect responseshttp://www.pollingreport.com/http://ciser.cornell.edu/info/polls.shtmlhttp://www.csr.vt.edu/http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm

Traditional Public Opinion PollsDetermining the content and phrasing of the questionsSelecting the sample: Random Sampling/ Stratified Sampling (4 regions-sample taken from randomly selected areas that are in proportion to the population)Contacting Respondentshttp://brain.gallup.com/home.aspx

Political PollsPush Polls: Polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against the candidateTracking Polls: Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in supportExit Polls: Conducted at selected polling places on Election Day http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbqxP8kAfLMhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71q2ta0RyfI

Shortcomings of PollingSampling Error or margin of error: A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll- fail to measure certain populationsLimited Respondent OptionsLack of Information on a topic or personIntensity on an issue is difficult to gauge

Cleavages in Public OpinionSocial cleavages: a concept used in sociology and political science to explore how society is divided into groups. The way in which political opinions are formed helps explain the cleavages that exist among these diverse opinions and why these cleavages do not follow any single political principle but instead overlap and crosscut.So, how do people form opinions? What influences peoples opinions?Political Socialization: Social GroupsFamily: Most important source of political socialization: party identificationReligion: Influences the political beliefs and behaviors of its adherents (67% of Americans go to church)Race and Ethnicityhttp://pewresearch.org/pubs/1209/racial-ethnicvoters-presidential-electionhttp://people-press.org/report/542/muslims-widely-seen-as-facing-discriminationhttp://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/700/black-public-opinion

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20240375

Gender, Age and RegionWomen: positive on social issues; negative on war and military intervention- until 9/11Gender gap- women tend to vote Democratic- equal opportunity for womenAge: Senior Citizens potent political forceMarried v Unmarried- single Democratic, married RepublicanRegion: Colonial times: varying interests have remained. North v. South: North: large immigration pop. Large Urban centers. South: more religious, rural, more power to the states, behind on civil rights issues.West: Except for Urban areas, tend to be conservative.Education: more education: conservative except if a person stays in college: LiberalSocial Class:

The Impact of EventsMemories often define generations, and the memories of key events often affect how individuals perceive other political events.9/11 JFK AssassinationNeil Armstrong and walking on the moonAttack on Pearl HarborNixon Resignation

Political Ideology and Public Opinion About GovernmentPolitical Ideology: The coherent set of values and beliefs about the purpose and scope of government held by groups and individualsLiberalism: places emphasis on individual political and economic freedom; maximize freedom for all people and citizens have the right to disagree with state decisions and act to change the decisions of their leaders.Communism: values equality over freedomSocialism: shares the value of equality with communism but is also influenced by the liberal value of freedomFascism: rejects the value of equality and accepts the idea that people and groups exist in degrees of inferiority and superiorityReligions: often serves as a basis for interest groups and voluntary associations within civil society- Secular and Non-secular statesConservatism: support smaller, less activist government and have strong social viewsMost Americans are moderateIdeological Types in the United StatesLiberals 22%

Favor: Government activities that promote equality, such as affirmative action programs to employ minorities and increased spending on public housing

Oppose: Government actions that restrict individual liberties, such as banning sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing for AIDS.Communitarians 29%

Favor: Government activities that promote equality, such as affirmative action programs to employ minorities and increased spending on public housing

Favor: Government actions that impose social order, such as banning sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing of AIDS.Libertarians 20%

Oppose : Government activities that interfere with the market, such as affirmative action programs to employ minorities and increased spending on public housing.

Oppose: Government actions that restrict individual liberties, such as banning sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing for AIDS

Conservatives 30%

Oppose : Government activities that interfere with the market, such as affirmative action programs to employ minorities and increased spending on public housing.

Favor: Government actions that restrict individual liberties, such as banning sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing for AIDS

The Original DilemmaThe modern DilemmaEqualityFreedomFreedomOrderThe Political Spectrum

Why We Form Political OpinionsPersonal Beliefs: Most people tend to agree with policies that benefit themselves- Why many have no opinion on foreign policyPolitical Knowledge: Increases as political participation increases- most Americans have a low level of political knowledge and history which allows for a quick shift in public opinionCues from Leaders: Presidents help form public opinion

Citizens, Society, and the StateSocial CleavagesReligion, ethnic groups, race, social, and economic classifications all interact with the political system and have tremendous impact on policymaking. These divisions are called Social Cleavages.

Citizens, Society, and the StateSocial CleavagesBases of social cleavages: What mix of social classes, ethnic and racial groups, religions, and languages does a country have? How deep are these cleavages, and do what degree do they separate people from one another? (form social boundaries) Which of these cleavages appear to have the most significant impact on the political system?Cleavages and political Institutions: How are cleavages expressed in the political system? For example, is political party membership based on cleavages? Do political elites usually come from one group or another? Do these cleavages block some group from fully participating in government?Citizens, Society, and the StateSocial CleavagesSocial ClassEthnic CleavagesReligious CleavagesRegional CleavagesCoinciding and Cross-Cutting Cleavages: When every dispute aligns against each other, coinciding cleavages are likely to be explosive. Cross- cutting cleavages divide society into many potential groups that may conflict on one issue but cooperate on another.

Citizens, Society, and the StatePolitical Efficacy= Civil SocietyA citizens capacity to understand and influence political events.If citizens have a high level of political efficacy, they believe the government takes their input seriously and cares about what they have to say. They also believe in their won abilities to understand political issues and to participate in solving problems. If they lack political efficacy, they may not believe it is important to vote, or they may try to ignore the governments efforts to enforce laws.Any Questions?