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The World Bank Group
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No. 125899‐GN
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION
AND MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY
COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK
FOR
THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA
FOR THE PERIOD FY2018‐FY23
May 10, 2018
Africa Region The International Finance Corporation Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group authorization.
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The date of the last Country Partnership Strategy was September 4, 2013.
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 US$ = 9,052 Guinean francs (GNF)
(as of May 8, 2018)
FISCAL YEAR January 1 ‐ December 31
IDA IFC MIGA
Vice President: Director: Task Team Leader:
Makhtar Diop Soukeyna Kane Rachidi Radji
Sergio Pimenta Cheikh Oumar Seydi Olivier Buyoya
Keiko Honda (CEO) Merli Baroudi Paul Barbour, Gero Verheyen
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ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AF Additional Finance AFD French Development Agency (Agence Francaise de Développement) AfDB African Development Bank AIP Annual Investment Plan APIP Private Investment Promotion Agency APL Adaptable Program Lending ASA Advisory Services and Analytics BSD Strategic Planning Offices CBG Guinea Bauxite Company (Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée) CCKP Climate Change Knowledge Portal (World Bank) CE Citizen engagement CLR Completion and Learning Review CPF Country Partnership Framework CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CPPR Country Portfolio Performance Review CPS Country Partnership Strategy DP Development Partner DPL Development Policy Loan DNEIP Directorate of State Property and Private investment (Direction Nationale du
Patrimonies de l’Etat et des Divertissements Privés) DPO Development Policy Operation ECD Early childhood development ECF Extended Credit Facility ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EDG Electricity of Guinea (Electricité de Guinée) EGRA Early Grade Reading Assessment EGTACB Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative ESEIP Electricity Sector Efficiency Improvement Project ETC Ebola Treatment Center EU European Union EVD Ebola Virus Disease FCV Fragility, Conflict and Violence FM Financial Management FNDL National Fund for Local Development FODEL Economic Development Fund FTI Fast‐Track Initiative FY Fiscal Year GAC Guinea Alumina Corporation GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GN Guinea GNF Guinean francs GoG Government of Guinea GP Global Practice GPE Global Partnership for Education GW Gigawatts HD Human Development HIPC Highly‐Indebted Poor Country Initiative
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HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus HR Human Resources IBM Integrative Beneficiary Feedback Mechanisms IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICT Information and Communications Technology ID4D Identification for Development IDA International Development Association IDB Islamic Development Bank IFC International Finance Corporation IFF Illicit Financial Flows IMF International Monetary Fund INS National Institute of Statistics (Institut National de la Statistique) IPF Investment Project Financing LIPW Labor‐Intensive Public Works Program LORLF Organic Law Relative to Finance Laws (Loi Organique relative aux Lois de Finances) MEPS Ministry of Public Adminsitration MEPUA Ministry of National Education and Literacy (Ministère de l’Enseignement Pré
Universitaire et de l’Alphabétisation) MGF MIGA’s Guarantee Facility MIGA MIGA Guarantee Agency MPI Multidimensional Poverty Index MPTF Multi‐ Partner Trust Fund MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises MU Moderately Unsatisfactory MW Megawatt NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NGO Non‐Governmental Organization OHADA Organisation for the Harmonization of Corporate Law in Africa P4R Program for Results PACV Community Village Support Program PASANDAD Accelerated Program for Food Security and Nutrition and Sustainable Agricultural
Development (Programme accéléré de sécurité alimentaire et nutritionnel et de développement agricole durable)
PDL Local Development Plans PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PER Public Expenditure Review PFM Public Finance Management PIU Project Implementation Units PM Prime Minister PMU Project Management Unit PNDA National Agricultural Development Policy PNDES National Social and Economic Development Plan PPIAF Public‐Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility PPP Public‐Private Partnership PSD Private sector development PSW Private Sector Window RMNCH Reproductive, Maternal, New born and Child Health RMR Risk Mitigation Regime RPG Rally of the Guinean People RMR Risk Mitigation Regime RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment RSB Research Support Budget
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SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SDG Sustainable Development Goals SEG Guinea Water Company (Société des Eaux de Guinée) SE4ALL Sustainable Energy for All SOE State‐owned enterprise SOGUIPAMI Guinean Society of Mining Heritage (Société Guinéenne du Patrimoine Minier) SME Small and Medium Enterprise SPF State and Peacebuilding Fund TA Technical Assistance TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training UFDG Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund VAT Value‐Added Tax WASH Water, Hygiene, Sanitation WBG World Bank Group WGI Worldwide Governance Indicator
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Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................1
I. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT AGENDA .................................................................2 A. Socio‐Political and Institutional Factors ............................................................................. 2
B. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook .................................................................... 3
C. Poverty and Shared Prosperity .......................................................................................... 5
D. Development Agenda ........................................................................................................ 6
E. Development Constraints .................................................................................................. 8
F. Risk and Resilience ........................................................................................................... 10
II. WORLD BANK GROUP PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY ................................................................... 10 A. Lessons from CPS Completion and the Learning Review .................................................... 10
B. In‐Country Consultations .................................................................................................. 11
C. Government Program and Medium‐Term Strategy ........................................................... 11
D. Overview of World Bank Group Strategy and Intervention Logic ....................................... 12
E. Objectives Supported by the WBG Program ...................................................................... 17
F. Implementing the Country Partnership Framework .......................................................... 28
Annex 1: Results Monitoring Matrix (Guinea), CPF FY2018‐FY23 .................................................. 36
Annex 2: Completion and Learning Review of the FY14‐FY17 Country Partnership Strategy .......... 52
Annex 3: New Lending Program FY18‐FY23 CPF ............................................................................. 83
Annex 4: World Bank Engagement by Sector ................................................................................. 84
Annex 5: Guinea Active IDA Portfolio ............................................................................................ 86
Annex 6: Implementation Note for the IDA18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR) in Guinea ................ 87
Annex 7: Guinea IDA Portfolio Performance ................................................................................. 97
Annex 8: Guinea World Bank Group Portfolio ............................................................................... 98
Annex 9: Map of Guinea ............................................................................................................... 99 Boxes Box 1: Governance in the Energy Sector Needs to Improve at all Levels ............................................... 9
Figures Figure 1: Summary of Systematic Country Diagnostic for Guinea .......................................................... 7
Figure 2: World Bank Engagement by Sector Relative to Other Development Partners ..................... 13
Figure 3: SCD Pathways, Priorities and Relationship to CPF Outcomes ............................................... 14
Figure 4: Summary of CPF Pillars and Objectives.................................................................................. 17
Figure 5: Maximizing Finance for Development in Pillar 3 ................................................................... 23
Table 1: Key Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators, 2015–2023 ...................................................... 4
Table 2: Indicative Guinea Program (US$ millions)............................................................................... 29
Table 3: Selected Planned Analytical and Advisory Assistance ............................................................ 31
Table 4: Systematic Operations Risk Rating Tool .................................................................................. 33
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INTRODUCTION
1. This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) presents the World Bank Group (WBG) program for Guinea for the Fiscal Year (FY) period of 2018‐23. This CPF will succeed the FY2014‐FY17 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), which was discussed by WBG Executive Directors on September 4, 2013, and again on July 18, 2015 during a Performance and Learning Review. The proposed CPF follows a period of national crisis caused by the Ebola epidemic of 2014‐16. It draws on a comprehensive Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) completed in FY18, which identified constraints to achieving the Bank’s twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and fostering shared prosperity in a socially and environmentally sustainable way. Furthermore, it supports the implementation of the Government’s National Social and Economic Development Plan (PNDES) of 2016‐20. Finally, it also reflects the Government of Guinea’s (GoG) commitment to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations, as well as its responsibilities and priorities regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation. 2. The distinctive feature of this CPF is its focus on accelerating the transition to a more diversified, higher value‐added economy while also addressing the multiple drivers of fragility. The CPF aims to support Guinea in achieving a structural transformation of its economy, that is, in moving from an economy based on mining and low productivity agriculture to a more diversified, productive private sector capable of employing its young people. It does this while also seizing opportunities to address the drivers of fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) that threaten Guinea’s progress. As such, it aims for quick wins that address more immediate risks. These drivers include: exposure to shocks, including price fluctuations for raw materials; health epidemics, such as the Ebola virus; widespread under‐employment among urban youth; weaknesses in the delivery of services that undermine popular support for central institutions; and rising ethnic‐political tensions. The CPF includes specific measures to empower women and girls (including through improved health and education, promoting employment opportunities, supporting labor‐saving technologies such as improved irrigation, improving access to finance and ensuring greater influence over decision‐making). It also aims to help the country manage its natural resources and better protect its biodiversity for the benefit of future generations. (Details of the indicators and targets to be used to monitor progress toward these objectives can be found in Annex 1.) 3. The CPF is funded by scaled‐up resources to increase the Bank’s impact in a complex operating environment. Total indicative resources available from the International Development Association (IDA) 18 could be between $560‐620 million. This includes an enhanced country allocation with additional resources from the Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR)1, and access to the Regional Window. Guinea will also be considered for US$150 million in additional IDA resources under the Scale‐Up Facility on International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) terms, and US$175 million as an IBRD Enclave loan. This funding will be supplemented by other potential resources such as trust funds, as well as financing from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the IDA 18 IFC‐MIGA Private Sector Window, and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).
1 The purpose of the RMR is to provide enhanced support to countries to mitigate increasing risks of FCV where governments are committed to addressing them. These could include risks resulting from internal or external stresses (for example, as a result of spill‐overs, economic marginalization, lagging regions, political uncertainty or insecurity). The special allocation helps countries address identified FCV risks or stresses (short‐ and/or long‐term) and build institutional resilience to manage them. Although countries may be exposed to multiple risk factors, the focus of the regime is on those risks that may trigger or reinforce instability, conflict or violence.
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I. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT AGENDA
A. Socio‐Political and Institutional Factors
4. Guinea’s experience with multiparty democracy is relatively recent and has been marked by socio‐political tensions on several occasions. The 2010 Presidential elections were Guinea's first democratic elections since independence in 1958, marking the end of a three‐year period of military rule during 2008‐10. The current President, Alpha Condé, was elected in 2010. Ethnic tensions increased during political campaigns in a context characterized by the organization of political parties along ethnic and regional lines. The President’s party, the ruling Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), is dominated by the Malinke group, which comprises 35 percent of the population. The Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), the runner‐up in 2010 and 2013, largely represents the Fula or Peul ethnic group, which comprises 40 percent of the population. Participation in elections has remained strong. Some areas of the capital, Conakry, have also been the scene of social upheaval involving urban, marginalized youth with reported links to some politicians. 5. Significant improvements have been achieved in democratic institutions in various sectors, including security and justice; however, some challenges within the state apparatus remain critical. The reach and extent of the Government’s presence across the country are uneven, with a concentration of services and resources in the Conakry area — to the detriment of remote, rural regions. Performance of both the judiciary and public administration is limited by governance and capacity issues, as well as a blurring of lines separating each institution from the political arena. According to the Mo‐Ibrahim Index of African Governance, the country’s overall score of 43.3 in 2016 is significantly below both the West Africa regional average (52.4) and the Sub‐Saharan Africa average (50). The judiciary is equipped with a modern legal framework. However, improvements in the justice sector now need to reach the population at large. The continued presence of vigilantes in some regions, as well as scattered violence and episodes of mob justice, are indicative of the fact that justice and the security forces need to work harder to gain the full confidence of the population. With the reforms that have taken place in the security sector, the army’s role no longer extends into the civilian sphere and the gendarmes and police are now trained and better equipped.
6. The Government has had to cope with an inherited higher overall level of trust in local institutions than in the central government. The 2013 Afrobarometer survey showed that while 87 percent of Guineans aspired to full democracy, only 23 percent felt that they currently enjoyed it. Forty‐five percent of respondents felt that Guinea was not democratic, with only slightly less than the 49 percent holding the same opinion in 2003. By contrast, social solidarity and trust were generally high at the village and district levels in rural areas. Rooted in tradition, there is also significant trust among members of hometown associations and savings clubs in cities. Even at the local levels, though, inter‐ethnic clashes are not uncommon, notably in the Forest Region and in Conakry.
7. Institutions and the administrative culture in Guinea are still shaped by the legacy of Guinea’s past. As identified in the SCD, Guinea’s development prospects today are shaped by the country’s authoritarian legacy. For instance, state‐building assistance provided by countries with highly centralized traditions during the Sekou Touré era (1958‐1984) introduced correspondingly centralized norms and practices into Guinea’s administrative and political culture. The dominance of the State Party during the Touré regime, which enforced its authority through militias, blurred the distinction between the political authorities and public institutions. Political conflict in Guinea is also, in part, the consequence of underlying social tensions and diminished confidence in the Government. Ethnic‐political tensions during the recent elections and rising poverty levels in both urban and rural areas have profoundly disappointed long‐held hopes for broad improvements. For example, although electricity is more accessible today (mainly in Conakry) — and although ambitious reforms have been realized in the security and justice sectors — these changes have not yet reached the population as a
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whole. Even within the reformed sectors, public service delivery remains so fraught with inefficiencies and incapacities that it has increasingly become the source of countrywide popular upheavals. Moreover, these frequent instances of violent protest are indicative of two important points. First, Guinea still finds itself at the very beginning of a political transformation process that is too often considered concluded, based on the fact that it has held democratic elections. Second, the essential task for the Guinean government cannot be to solely improve the economic situation; it must also deal with the underlying risks of fragility, conflict, and violence. 8. Guinea has avoided major internal repercussions arising from conflicts in neighboring countries. Despite numerous past conflicts in neighboring countries — and Guinea’s acceptance of substantial numbers of refugees from Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia and Sierra Leone — the country has never experienced any spillovers from the conflicts in those countries, nor has it had a civil war or faced a regional armed rebellion.
9. The next legislative elections are scheduled for 2018 and the next Presidential elections for 2020. Some members of the RPG ruling party (recently appointed to ministerial positions) have been advocating a third presidential mandate, which is not permitted under the current Guinean Constitution. A third term would have to be approved through a national referendum and could pose a risk of further instability in the country.
B. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 10. Following a period of low growth, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased in 2016 and 2017 and is forecast to remain strong through 2023. Between 1998‐2016, per capita growth GDP averaged a very low 0.6 percent, about 1.2 percentage points lower than for Sub‐Saharan Africa, and 3.3 percentage points lower than for middle‐income countries. As noted in the SCD, Guinea’s economy is highly sensitive to changes in the terms‐of‐trade arising from commodity price changes. During the first years of the current government elected in 2010, the economy grew as global economic conditions improved and investor confidence in Guinea returned. Growth reached 3.3 percent in 2011‐12. It was driven by soaring commodity prices (especially in iron ore and gold), which contributed to an increase in exports, government revenues and public investment. In addition, investor confidence increased with the introduction of several economic reforms, including the adoption of a new mining code in 2011, which helped to clarify the “rules of the game” in the mining sector. 11. The country reached the Highly‐Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) completion point in September 2012 and has since initiated a number of macroeconomic and structural reforms. Debt servicing payments amounted to over 4 percent of GDP in 2008. However, by 2013, following the HIPC Completion Point, this had fallen to below 1 percent of GDP. The Government undertook a number of macroeconomic reforms with the support of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and budget support programs during 2012‐16. Furthermore, lower debt service costs created greater fiscal space for pro‐poor spending. The Government also initiated reforms to boost the infrastructure and agricultural sectors. New roads were built across the country, and a new investment program to support subsidized agricultural inputs was launched.
12. During 2013‐15, however, unfavorable domestic and external factors undermined the country’s promising recovery. Political unrest in the context of legislative elections contributed to a decline in GDP growth from almost 4 percent in 2012 to just 2.3 percent in 2013. This was followed by the 2014–2015 Ebola pandemic, and growth in real GDP in 2015 of 3.8 percent (Table 1: Key Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators, 2015–2023). In addition, a decline in commodity prices, including the price of Guinea’s main exports (bauxite and gold), further aggravated the negative effect
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of Ebola on exports and the economy. Declining commodity prices also weakened investor confidence in the mining sector, with global mining companies, such as Rio Tinto, cutting back investments.
Table 1: Key Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators, 2015–2023
13. Since 2016, the economy has been growing strongly, led by renewed investment and growth in the mining sector. Real GDP growth reached 10.5 percent in 2016 and an estimated 8.2 percent in 2017, supported by robust growth in mining production and bauxite and gold exports, a dynamic construction sector, and good agricultural performance. Per capita GDP growth reached 7.8 percent in 2016 and an estimated 5.5 percent in 2017, up from 1.4 percent in 2015. Inflation in 2017 remained moderate at 8.9 percent. Available data on imports suggests aggregate demand is also recovering, although the business cycle is still in its early stages. Imports of final and intermediate goods are growing at strong rates, but demand for durable, semi‐durable, and investment goods appears to be softening. The latter is reflective of the still subdued household disposable incomes and tight cash flows for firms, weighed down, respectively, by relatively high inflation and tight credit conditions. 14. A new Extended Credit Facility arrangement with the IMF was approved in December 2017, although adjustments to the Program are likely in view of some early fiscal slippage. The new IMF arrangement will support Guinea’s 2016–20 National Social and Economic Development Plan (PNDES) aimed at fostering higher and more broad‐based growth. The overall fiscal balance (including grants) for 2017 resulted in a deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP compared to a roughly balanced budget as of end‐October 2017, and a 0.4 percent surplus required under the IMF program. The fiscal deterioration was due to lower‐than‐expected revenues and higher election‐related spending during the final two months of 2017. The medium term fiscal position was also affected by a recent Government decision to accelerate a planned 40 percent increase in public sector worker salaries, following weeks of strikes and protests. Adjustments to the Program are being discussed in the context of the First Review of the Program due to be submitted to the Board of Executive Directors of the IMF in June 2018. 15. Over the medium term, economic growth is projected to average about 6 percent. This is driven by large, expected foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the mining industry and increased infrastructure investment to boost construction and agricultural activities. In addition, Guinea stands to benefit from its integration into the regional economy. Indeed, Guinea is a founding member of the 15‐member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The high cost of
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
National Accounts and Prices
GDP at constant prices 3.8 10.5 8.2 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.3
GDP percapita at constant prices 1.4 7.8 5.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 2.7
GDP deflator 3.0 7.1 10.5 9.8 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.8
Consumer prices (average) 8.2 8.2 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.0 7.8 7.8
Selected Monetary Accounts
Credit to nongovernment sector 10.8 2.4 0.9 5.4 8.0 7.8 4.9 4.9
Broad money (M2) 20.3 9.9 15.8 10.5 14.4 15.8 15.9 14.5
Fiscal Accounts
Total revenue and grants 14.8 15.8 15.4 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.6 17.6
Total expenditure and net lending 21.7 16.0 17.5 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.3
Overall budget balance ‐6.9 ‐0.1 ‐2.1 ‐3.3 ‐2.6 ‐2.1 ‐1.9 ‐1.7
External Sector
Current account balance ‐12.9 ‐31.1 ‐16.8 ‐21.0 ‐15.9 ‐17.4 ‐13.3 ‐12.6
Foreign direct investment 3.0 18.3 14.5 13.5 9.6 13.8 11.5 10.6
Gross reserves (in months of next year's
imports)1.5 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.0
External public debt 20.2 21.0 19.5 24.8 29.7 31.6 31.3 31.3
Nominal GDP (GNF billions) 65,829 77,899 93,160 108,469 124,382 142,345 159,750 181,407 20
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Bank estimates and projections as of April 2018
forecast
.
Sources:
5
infrastructure, particularly in some of the smaller countries such as Guinea, has been a barrier to development. Identifying economies of scale across ECOWAS and reducing the fixed costs of large infrastructure borne by each member can help mitigate these costs. In some cases, such as hydropower, Guinea is well‐placed to increase its export earnings by becoming a significant supplier of energy to its fellow Community members.
C. Poverty and Shared Prosperity2
16. Monetary poverty in Guinea is both endemic and chronic. The last household survey was conducted in 2012, and a new household survey is planned for 2018. It will be supported by the World Bank and the European Union (EU). Based on available data, the share of the population living in poverty stagnated at around 55 percent between 2002 and 2012. Simulations based on the 2014 census suggest a likely increase in this share to nearly 58 percent in 2014 nationally, with both urban and rural areas experiencing increased poverty.3 The overall increase in poverty since 2010 is consistent with the evolution of GDP growth rates since then: per capita GDP was still lower in 2016 than in 2010. There has also been an increase in the estimated absolute number of poor since 2002, with numbers increasing in both urban and rural areas from 4.5 million people in 2002 to 6 million in 2015, a net increase of 1.5 million people. The majority of these people live in the three regions of Kankan, Kindia and Nzérékoré. Half a million of the total increase in the population living in poverty occurred in urban areas, with the remaining 1 million residing in rural areas. Factors underlying these increases include: low economic growth, a high incidence of poverty, and rapid population growth. 17. Unlike monetary poverty trends, non‐monetary measures generally show some improvement in well‐being during this period. There was a reduction in multi‐dimensional poverty4 between 2002 and 2007, followed by a period of stagnation during 2007–12, before a further small decrease in 2014. Although the nutritional health of children under the age of 5 improved between 2005 and 2012, the level of malnutrition remains a concern5. Nearly a third of under‐5 children (31 percent) suffered from stunting6 in 2012, including 17.5 percent of children in urban areas and 40 percent in rural areas, accounting for a total of 579,000 children in the country.
18. Social losses resulting from the Ebola outbreak have also exacerbated poverty. A post‐Ebola survey of nearly 2,500 households conducted in September 2015 shows that poverty may have increased, with economic damage outlasting the immediate epidemiological effects. The southeast of the country and the areas around Conakry were particularly badly affected. Urban employment decreased, and rural incomes declined. Agricultural production remained resilient. However, this has not prevented a decrease in food consumption, probably due to the isolation of some localities from surplus production. The impact on education was also significant, with close to 7 percent of households withdrawing their children from school. Regarding health, many households have decreased their use of health facilities for minor purposes. However, they have continued to visit these facilities in case of serious health issues, such as malaria.
2 The World Bank supported a Poverty Assessment for Guinea in May 2016. The Assessment was supplemented by work for the 2017 SCD. 3 Guinea’s statistical system remains weak and poverty data are limited. According to the 2015 World Bank Country Statistics Capacity Index, Guinea had an overall score of 57 percent compared with an African regional average of 60 percent. 4 The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is estimated following the approach used by Alkire and Santos (2014). It is based on eight dimensions including six dimensions of living standards (assets, roofing, electricity, cooking, improved sanitation, and drinking water), and two dimensions of education (adult schooling and child school attendance). 5 The malnutrition issue is an important issue to be addressed because undernutrition is associated with half of all under‐the‐age‐of‐5 child deaths in the world. 6 Stunting or chronic malnutrition is generally reflective of the standard of living of the household and the quality of its environment. It is also linked to delayed cognitive development and negatively affects learning, skills acquisition and eventual employability and earnings.
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19. Poor households tend to be engaged in agriculture and live in rural areas. The incidence of poverty for rural areas is almost 65 percent, representing a population of 4.3 million poor people, as compared with 35.4 percent in urban areas and a poor population of 1.2 million. In employment terms, households headed by farmers are most affected by poverty, with an incidence of 66.4 percent, as compared with only 24.6 and 36.1 percent, respectively, for households working in the public and private sectors. Households led by farmers account for a poor population of nearly 4 million, or 70 percent of the country’s total poor population.
20. Income inequality between urban and rural areas varies across regions, although the overall rate of income inequality is relatively low in Guinea. For instance, differences between the incidence of poverty in rural and urban areas are low in the regions of Faranah and Kankan (less than 10 percentage points), whereas in the Kindia, Labé, and Mamou regions, rural‐urban differences reach 30 percentage points. In Greater Conakry, unemployment is a major problem and 15 and 21 percent of the 20‐24 and 25‐29‐year age groups, respectively, are unemployed. The overall Gini coefficient, however, is 33.7 — below the average for Sub‐Saharan Africa (42.1). This coefficient measure did not change much between 2007 and 2012.
21. Poverty is linked to lack of education. Households whose head had no education have a poverty rate nearly three times that of households whose head had a university education. These households have an incidence of poverty of 60 percent and represent nearly 80 percent of the total poor population. However, possibly because of the low quality of education, the difference in the incidence of poverty among households whose head had a primary education (56 percent) is only slightly less than that of households with an uneducated head.
D. Development Agenda 22. The SCD highlighted Guinea’s enormous development potential as well as the constraints it faces. Guinea’s potential lies in sectors such as agriculture and natural resources, as well as in the processing of goods and other services. Much of the processing of goods and other services is located in the Conakry urban area and other larger cities. However, to realize this potential and speed the process of structural transformation, the country will first have to overcome a legacy of authoritarian administration and over‐dependence on agriculture and mining (see Figure 1). Above all, the country will need to address weak overall governance, including a regulatory and institutional environment that is a deterrent to job creation and private investment outside of the mining sector. Second, there are large gender gaps in education, opportunities for work, agricultural productivity and decision‐making powers. Taken together, these factors depress not only the prospects for women, but for the whole country’s development trajectory. Other major constraints include: low levels of human capital (including low levels of literacy); a poor healthcare system; a shortage of quality inputs for the agriculture sector; weak sectoral and local government management capabilities; weak management of rapidly growing urban agglomerations like Conakry; inadequate infrastructure; lack of access to finance; and high unemployment, especially among young people. (See Figure 1.) Development Opportunities 23. Agriculture is the main source of employment in Guinea and is critical for poverty reduction and rural development. The sector provides income for 57 percent of rural households and employment for 52 percent of the workforce. Importantly, it has the potential for further growth. Natural conditions are favorable for growth. In this regard, sunshine and natural conditions favor the cultivation of a wide range of products, including fruits, vegetables, coffee, and cocoa. Historically, the country was a major producer of mangos, pineapples and bananas from vast export‐oriented, privately‐owned commercial farms — although this output collapsed after the country’s independence. Droughts are rare and, when they occur, their possible adverse effects are
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compensated by the diversity of the country’s regions (Lower, Middle, Upper, and Forest Guinea), each of which has its own climatic, hydrological, and ecological characteristics. Over the last year, there has been some private investment in the agri‐processing units and commercial farming. However, levels of agricultural productivity are among the lowest in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Only 25 percent of cultivable land and 10 percent of the irrigable land are currently being developed and farmed. There is limited integration in the value chain, with a small agri‐related manufacturing industry.
Figure 1: Summary of Systematic Country Diagnostic for Guinea
Source: Based on the Guinea Systematic Country Diagnostic (2017).
24. Guinea is also endowed with vast natural resources, especially mining and hydropower resources, which could generate substantial income streams. The country’s mining deposits are particularly rich. Its iron ore resources are among the largest and highest quality in the world and include the world’s biggest unexploited iron deposit in Simandou. Guinea also possesses large reserves of bauxite estimated at 7‐8 billion tons, or about one‐third of total global resources. Production of bauxite is comparable to countries such as China, whose reserves are only 15 percent of Guinea’s endowment. There is enormous scope for increasing the value derived by the country from these natural resources. Currently, Guinea has the lowest alumina‐to‐bauxite production ratio of all major producing countries, exporting 95 percent of its bauxite in raw form. In terms of renewable resources, Guinea is known as the “water tower” of Africa. Its territory incorporates the headwaters of several major rivers, including the Senegal and Niger Rivers. Again, there is great potential for increasing the benefits derived from this renewable resource, including the export of clean, greenhouse‐gas‐free, energy to the sub‐region. Indeed, Guinea’s hydropower generating capacity, estimated at 6,000 megawatts (MW), is equivalent to more than 12 times the capacity of the existing grid. However, experience in Guinea also shows that mining and hydropower can have serious negative effects, both direct and indirect, on biodiversity and the environment. These potential risks will require careful management. 25. Urban agglomeration also represents an opportunity, although it has yet to result in the development of sectors typical of a structural transformation. Guinea’s capital, Conakry, is by far the largest city in the country, representing 45 percent of the country’s urban population (1.7 million people). Beyond Conakry, there is continued densification of the urban network with the potential for increased rural‐urban linkages and attendant economic benefits for the whole country. Conakry and other large urban clusters provide opportunities for growth based on economies of scale and deep
Historical legacy (authoritarianism and political instability)
Over‐reliance on mining and low productivity agriculture
Stagnant per capita income; high poverty
The problem Pathways/solutions
• Increasing agricultural productivity with fostered private investment
• Raising human capital to support inclusive growth
• Improving economic opportunities through enhanced urban development
• Strengthening management of fiscal and natural resources
• Better governance
Constraints
Governance
Unproductive agriculture
Low private investment
Weak human capital
Poor access to basic services
Unplanned urbanization
Poor fiscal and natural resource management
8
markets. Conakry is already the country’s financial and business capital, as well as the main port for the export of goods and services to the outside world. Most banking activities are concentrated in Conakry, with only a few branches located outside of the capital. Access to health and education services is higher in Conakry than elsewhere. However, structural transformation has lagged. Opportunities for vertical linkages between the rural and urban sectors have yet to result in significant economic diversification. Urbanization has yet to generate the higher productivity rates often associated with urban agglomerations, which would turn Conakry into a genuine engine for economic growth. Nor has urbanization created sufficient employment. Rather, Conakry, in particular, has attracted increasing numbers of low‐skilled internal migrants, resulting in severe congestion, urban slums, social unrest and a very large informal business sector. Nearly 240,000 Guineans, or about 3 percent of the total population, migrated to urban areas between 2007 and 2014.
E. Development Constraints 26. The SCD identified a number of development constraints that impede Guinea’s ability to reduce poverty and increase shared prosperity. Of these constraints, weak governance stands out due to its pervasive presence at all levels of government, as well as its impact on all sectors. For example, there are weaknesses in the management of public finances and investment; procurement; human resources in the public sector; and state‐owned enterprises that affect service delivery across multiple sectors (for example, in energy. See Box 1). Guinea has also retained its centralized state structure, with all major decisions being taken in the capital — despite legislation passed in 2006 providing a framework for increased decentralization (Code des Collectivités Locales). The financing of local councils remains very low: central transfers (0.4 percent of the national budget) currently cover recurrent expenditures only, and local tax revenue mobilization is about US$2 per capita per year. Instead, deconcentrated levels of central government are the only beneficiaries of central transfers, and not local governments. Significant increases in local finance will have to be made in order to meet the provisions of the Code.
27. The SCD for Guinea also identified gender‐related constraints to poverty reduction and shared prosperity in several areas. There are large gender gaps in school enrolment, especially at the secondary level. As in many countries in the region, this is linked to high rates of early marriage and childbearing. As a result, fertility rates are high (with 5 births per woman), as is the annual population growth rate (2.2 percent). The supply of and demand for quality maternal health care is sub‐optimal. Women also have limited opportunities to participate either in wage work or as entrepreneurs. In the agricultural sector, the productivity of women is low for multiple reasons, including lower access to farm labor relative to men and more time spent in labor‐intensive irrigation work. Women do not have the same decision‐making powers as men at all levels of society, which hampers their ability to shape the country’s socioeconomic development.
28. Empowering women will have a systemic impact on Guinea’s development potential. Over time, a more productive labor force and smaller, healthier families, will increase per capita incomes. As labor market outcomes for women improve, the opportunity cost of marriage and childbearing should increase, thereby leading to a decline in fertility. Meanwhile, women’s desired and actual fertility rates fall, and the average age of marriage increases. As such, girls and women may then be able to dedicate more time to income‐earning activities. Population growth will slow, abating the pressure on land and natural resources, as well as reducing the risk of fragility, conflict and violence. This will, in turn, feed back into greater investment into development priorities.7
7 As required by World Bank Operations Policy (OP)/Bank Policy (BP) 4.20, the proposals to address gender gaps in this CPF are informed by available analytical work on gender in Guinea, including analysis conducted as part of the SCD. A complete Gender Assessment is scheduled for FY19.
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Box 1: Governance in the Energy Sector Needs to Improve at all Levels
Nationwide, average access to electricity is very low at 18 percent, with only 3 percent access in rural areas. Generation capacity is low (about 590 MW of total installed capacity) and electricity system losses are about 35 percent. There is also a high consumption of biomass energy, constituting 78 percent of the overall energy balance. Despite some recent progress, such as the adoption of a Management Services Contract for the electricity utility, Electricité de Guinée (EDG), the sector continues to face a range of difficulties including:
Weak planning and supervision capacity in the Ministry of Energy and Hydraulics, resulting in a disconnect between planning and project selection and implementation. For example, generation projects are typically selected without following a least cost generation plan;
Tolerance by EDG and the Government of non‐payment of energy bills, particularly by households; most households (about 80 percent) are not metered, and some (about 11 percent of the population) are connected to the distribution network illegally;
Collapsing finances within EDG resulting from inadequate tariff policies and a ratio of electricity payments to supply of less than 50 percent;
Rapid deterioration of generation and distribution assets due to poor operations and maintenance (for instance, the availability of the already insufficient generation capacity in 2016 was only 69 percent due to frequent system breakdowns); and
Very poor quality of service, with 56 percent of the demand unserved, which in turn exacerbates the challenge of enforcing payment discipline. It also makes an adjustment of tariffs to a sustainable level very difficult to justify.
Other development constraints identified by the SCD include:
Low levels of human capital prevent individuals from accessing high quality jobs, limiting their earnings potential and contribution to economic growth.
In part due to poor skills, Guinea also has poor health outcomes, which can be attributed to a weak public health system that is inaccessible, inequitable, and inefficient. Malnutrition and stunting are also widespread, especially in rural areas.
The agriculture sector is characterized by low use of machinery and irrigation, and a deteriorating rural investment climate. There is also a fundamental shortage of management capabilities, tools and qualified personnel.
Urbanization in Guinea has not been well managed, and the economic benefits of agglomeration have been elusive.
Unemployment and social exclusion in Conakry, particularly among young people, has resulted in violent protests and other expressions of social and political unrest.
The overall quality of infrastructure and trade logistics is very low and is a binding constraint to growth.
Poor access to finance is a critical constraint for firm investment, job creation and growth. Climate change 29. Guinea is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. In its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the Government highlights the main impacts of climate change affecting the country. These effects include: (i) an overall increase in average temperatures; (ii) a drop in average annual rainfall, especially in North‐West and North‐East Guinea, together with a change in the frequency and intra‐year distribution of precipitation; and (iii) a rising sea level (of around 80 centimeters by the year 2100). The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) also highlights the main risks, notably sea level rise, extreme precipitation, and drought. In the absence of further measures, these risks could have negative consequences for many sectors. The first risk would directly impact Conakry, which serves as the country’s main port, as well as its financial and business capital. The second and third risks pose a significant potential impediment to the aim of increasing agricultural production/productivity.
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F. Risk and Resilience
30. Guinea also faces a complicated set of interrelated drivers with respect to fragility, conflict,
and violence (FCV). A Risk and Resilience Assessment (May 2017) found the following four key drivers
of FCV (for details, see Annex 6: Implementation Note for the IDA 18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR)
in Guinea).
Delegitimized state institutions. Whether in health, education, security, electricity, or water provision, the state administration is perceived as underfunded, insufficiently trained, and inefficient. This is a profound structural deficit that stems from Guinea’s long history with personalized and politicized state systems, including under the French colonial regime. It includes a highly politicized one‐party state following independence, and the personalized style of the current leadership. By contrast, confidence in local institutions, is commensurately higher.
Under‐employed urban youth: Guinea is a young society (with a median age of 18.6 years) and its youth face a barely functioning education system and exceedingly high levels of structural unemployment and underemployment. Rural citizens migrate to cities in search of income, adding stress to already overwhelmed urban labor markets and infrastructure.
Exposure to external shocks and high food prices: The Guinean economy is gradually recovering from two major shocks—the Ebola epidemic and declining commodity prices—which hit the country in 2014 and 2015. In 2016, growth rebounded to 6.6 percent (3.9 percent in per capita terms). Positive supply trends in the mining sector, a strong agricultural harvest, and higher electricity supply are supporting the post‐Ebola recovery. Mining, especially bauxite, and agriculture have been growth drivers, with the latter showing strong resilience. Some commodity prices, including bauxite and gold, have also improved. However, services and manufacturing are still lagging sectors.
Political instrumentalization of ethnicity. Although ethnicity is socially unproblematic in everyday life, Guinea’s experience with multiparty politics in recent years has been marked by a worrying rise in ethnic‐political tensions. Complex issues of national belonging and ethnic antagonisms were key issues in the 2010 presidential elections, and violent clashes between militants from different political parties and/or the armed forces during national elections have since occurred.
II. WORLD BANK GROUP PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY
A. Lessons from CPS Completion and the Learning Review 31. The following lessons derived from the review of the FY2014‐FY17 CPS have helped to frame this new CPF (see Annex 2: Completion and Learning Review of the FY14‐FY17 Country Partnership Strategy for further details):
Maintaining flexibility and the ability to respond quickly to crises is key to the success of World Bank support in fragile environments such as Guinea. Therefore, the proposed CPF leaves some un‐programmed allocations, which will allow the WBG to support the Government in implementing its new National Development Plan in a flexible manner so that it can respond to any change of circumstances.
To sustain development outcomes, the WBG should strengthen citizen engagement, local capacity and local planning processes in its operations. The Bank should design a systematic Citizen Engagement (CE) Roadmap to mainstream CE approaches across its portfolio. As noted in Table 3, below, an Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) program is planned for FY19 that aims to mainstream the citizen engagement approach.
There is a need to strengthen the regulatory framework to support successful Public‐Private Partnership (PPP) investments. Working jointly with the World Bank and MIGA, IFC should
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promote the use of PPP solutions to foster private led‐investments in power generation, specifically in hydro and solar energy. PPP solutions will also play an important role in the current CPF, for example, under Objective 7 (see also Figure 5).
To deal more directly with issues of poverty reduction and spatial inequality, the World Bank needs to target its support in those geographic areas where poverty is most pronounced. An example in this CPF is the multisectoral focus proposed for the Boké region, with a significant share of WBG support for agriculture, rural mobility and mining governance activities.
Innovations and reforms should be conducted using a pilot project, and then scaled up once proven to be successful. CPF examples include: a matching grant facility that will help explore gender aspects of building small and medium enterprise (SME) capacity and increasing access to markets; socio‐emotional skills training to boost entrepreneurship for women; and enhancing mining contributions to sustainable development.
Good analysis of the country’s context and project/reform readiness are essential for setting sensible results indicators. In this regard, completion of the SCD has helped in the design of the CPF results indicators.
Joint Bank‐Government portfolio reviews help in improving implementation. The WBG will strengthen and further mainstream the existing joint review meetings of the portfolio, as well as for the Country Portfolio Performance Reviews (CPPRs).
B. In‐Country Consultations
32. Consultations on the Guinea CPF were held in the three major Guinean cities of Conakry, Kankan, and Nzerekore during November‐December 2017. The consultations included the following groups: (i) members of Parliament; (ii) regional and local authorities; (iii) traditional and religious leaders; (iv) representatives of the private sector; (v) development partners; (vi) representatives from universities and research institutes; (vii) non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) and development associations, as well as women, youth and persons with disabilities. . 33. Stakeholders identified three key themes throughout the consultations, namely the need for: (i) better governance and fiscal management; (ii) better infrastructure and access to basic social services; and (iii) decentralization and more local involvement in the decision‐making process. Areas identified in which World Bank Group support would have the greatest impact included:
Modernizing the agriculture sector, training farmers and providing support for the processing of local products;
Building infrastructure, including national roads, as well as improving access to rural areas;
Strengthening governance to fight against corruption, and supporting the establishment of a culture of accountability, including transparency in public procurement;
Investing in human capital (education, health) based on the assumption that better educated, healthier people are more involved in wealth creation and, in turn, better off;
Improving the business climate by establishing a platform for dialogue between the private and public sectors; and
Improving access to basic social needs.
C. Government Program and Medium‐Term Strategy
34. The overarching long‐term vision for Guinea’s development is described in the Government’s “Guinea Vision 2040”, which was approved in April 2017. It sets the vision for the country’s sustainable development, including its emergence and prosperity. The document also details the Government’s commitment to addressing FCV risks. For example, the first pillar identifies four key issues (democracy, national reconciliation, justice and security) where progress is essential,
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whereas the second pillar highlights the importance of public administration, corruption and decentralization. 35. The Vision was translated into the 2016‐20 National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES), structured around four strategic pillars8. The PNDES highlights the fragility of the “Guinean system” that is leading to inefficiencies and preventing the country from achieving its development goals. This analysis is drawn from the fragility assessment undertaken in 2016 in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), using the New Deal methodology. Therefore, fragility considerations have been integrated into the PNDES. In particular, Pillar 1 of the PNDES identifies “Rule of law, democracy, security and social cohesion” as critical for addressing factors that contribute to the “political and social fragility” of the country. Indeed, they are key to making the country more resilient. Although challenges remain, the Government of Guinea has also undertaken successful reforms, for instance in the energy and mining sectors, with the adoption of the mining code in 2011 and its amendment in 2013, as well as in the justice and security sectors. In some communes, the Government has created local councils for security and crime prevention. It has also explored community policing on a pilot basis. The Ministry of National Unity and Citizenship is currently preparing a National Strategy for Conflict Prevention and Management and for Citizenship Strengthening (Stratégie Nationale de Prévention et de Gestion des Conflits et de Renforcement de la Citoyenneté). 36. The pillars in the PNDES are determined by three drivers of structural change. These comprise: (i) catalytic investments in the mining sector in energy, roads, ports, airports, and Information and Communications Technology (ICT), together with good governance of the mining sector; (ii) productivity increases in the agro‐sylvo‐pastoral and fisheries sectors resulting from investment in development, equipment and tools, and skills development — as well as openness to trade and foreign capital; and (iii) non‐mining industrial diversification linked to regional agro‐value chains.
37. In October 2017, Guinea joined the G20 Compact with Africa (CWA) Initiative9. The Prospectus sets out opportunities for private investors in the energy, infrastructure, agriculture, mining, ‘living infrastructure’, and culture and tourism sectors. The Prospectus sets out key measures that the GoG has undertaken (mostly by the end of 2018) to strengthen the macroeconomic, business and financial context for private investors. Key measures include: strengthened public financial management (PFM), improved mobilization of resources, and improved public procurement procedures; a strengthened PPP framework, a better environment for SMEs and control of corruption; and measures to strengthen the Central Bank and improve credit reporting. It also details how international development partners are supporting these measures.
D. Overview of World Bank Group Strategy and Intervention Logic
38. The CPF targets the WBG’s twin goals of alleviating extreme poverty and increasing shared prosperity by delivering a subset of SCD priorities. The SCD highlights a wide range of development priorities. The SCD priorities are also a subset of a wider set of possible interventions. These were selected on the basis of the following criteria: impact on goals, time horizon, pre‐conditions (for success), complementarities among interventions, existence of evidence, and political feasibility.
8 These pillars include: (i) promoting good governance for sustainable development; (ii) sustainable and inclusive economic transformation; (iii) inclusive development of human capital; and (iv) the sustainable management of natural capital. 9 The CWA initiative includes a joint commitment by the participating African countries and development partners to implement specific reforms. It is premised on the expectation that implementation of a coherent set of measures will produce a powerful signal, leading to a change in risk‐adjusted expected returns for investors—and an ensuing a surge in investment, in particular from private sources.
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Figure 2: World Bank Engagement by Sector Relative to Other Development Partners
Source: UNDP and team calculations. Note: AfDB=African Development Bank; EU= European Union; GEF=Global Environment Facility; IDA=International Development Association; IDB=Islamic Development Bank; MPTF= Multi‐Partner Trust Fund; N/A= not available; PBF = Peace Building Fund; UNICEF= United Nations Children's Fund; UNIDO= United Nations Industrial Development Organization; and USA= United States of America. *Under UNDP, ‘Social’ comprises programs aimed specifically at supporting the disabled and promoting self‐sufficiency (with health and education listed separately in the diagram). Urban development is included in the category ‘infrastructure’.
39. CPF themes represent a selection of the SCD list of priorities, mindful of the fact that the WBG cannot address all of Guinea’s development needs. Selectivity was achieved through the application of criteria to determine what measures should be prioritized as well as how they should be delivered (including factors such as fragility – see further details below). To determine what measures should be prioritized, the CPF first builds on governmental and priority areas. Second, it focuses on areas in which the WBG has already demonstrated a comparative advantage in Guinea — or in which there is a need/priority that is not being met by other development partners (DPs). Partial evidence of the World Bank’s comparative advantage is provided by the extent of World Bank involvement in and experience by sector, together with IFC involvement. Details of World Bank and DP sector engagement are illustrated in Figure 2. (For more details about the implications for WBG involvement by sector, see Annex 4: World Bank Engagement by Sector). 40. The overall result of applying these selectivity criteria is summarized in Figure 3: SCD Pathways, Priorities and Relationship to CPF Outcomes. For example, the improved use of inputs and farming techniques, an SCD priority, is given high prominence in the Government’s strategy. It is also an area in which the Bank is already the leading DP. As such, it is reflected in Objective 6. By contrast, despite its importance, the Bank will limit its activities in the urban area largely to a few critical ongoing areas in water and energy, as well as analytical policy support (Figure 2). This selectivity reflects the involvement of other donors. Other SCD priorities are similarly ranked according to these two criteria.
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Figure 3: SCD Pathways, Priorities and Relationship to CPF Outcomes
Note: CPF= Country Partnership Framework; GoG= Government of Guinea; SCD= Systematic Country Diagnostic.
41. The CPF design is also shaped by considerations of ‘how’ best to engage. Four criteria in particular have helped determine the mode of engagement: (i) the need to help mitigate the fragility risks that Guinea faces; (ii) the need to identify and leverage private sector funding, where possible, before deploying public funding; (iii) the importance of pursuing a spatial approach; and (iv) the need to address climate‐related threats and vulnerabilities through the systematic maximization of climate change co‐benefits in operations under this CPF.
Highlighted in GoGStrategy
WBG comparative advantage
(CA)Reflection in CPFSCD priority
= prominent = not featured
= minor (egASA only)
= moderate= centra l
Pathway 1: Increasing agricultural productivity with higher private investment
Pathway 2: Raising human capital to support inclusive growth
Pathway 3: Improving economic opportunities through enhanced urban development
Pathway 4: Strengthening management of fiscal and natural resources
Cross‐cutting issue: governance
High• Improve use of inputs and farming techniques
# 6: Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets
High
• Develop agri‐value chains
# 6: Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets
High High
• Build infrastructure along critical corridors;
# 6: Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets; # 9: Improved business environmentHigh Medium
• Provide better logistics for private sector
# 6: Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets
High Medium
• Improve access to finance
# 8: Improved business environment
High Medium
• Facilitate skills development
# 4: Improved basic education, especially in rural areas
High High
• Strengthen public health system
#5 Improved health and social protection, especially in rural areas;
Medium High
• Promote gender equality and social protection
# 5: Improved health and social protection, especially in rural areas; # 5: Improved basic education, especially in rural areas; # 9: Maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young people
Medium High
• Improve job opportunities for urban youth
# 9: Maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young people
Medium Medium
• Improve fiscal management
#1: Improved public fiscal and financial management
Medium High
• Better natural resource management in electricity and water sectors
# 7: Better access to energy and water through improved management of utilities; # 9: Maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young
people
High High
• Strengthen citizen engagement
#2: Decentralization of service delivery, including health and education, and better engagement of citizens
Medium Medium
• Strengthen public institutions for better service delivery
#1: Improved public fiscal and financial management; #2: Decentralization of service delivery, including health and education, and
better engagement of citizens
High High
• Enhance urban development
# 7: Better access to energy and water through improved management of utilities; # 9: Maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young people
Medium Low
CPF objective
through higher private investment
Medium
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Fragility 42. The World Bank will support Guinea’s efforts in addressing its risks of Fragility, Violence and Conflict through the reduction of structural drivers of fragility and conflict, and the identification of quick wins in a context of instability driven by social discontent. A stronger emphasis on FCV will be integrated in the overall dialogue with the government, as well as in the portfolio and ASA program. The Risk Mitigation Regime Program (Annex 6: Implementation Note for the 9D16 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR) in Guinea) will also help leverage a greater focus of the World Bank program in Guinea on fragility and conflict risks. The current WBG portfolio already includes many of the elements needed to address the drivers of FCV. 43. Restructuring and/or additional financing for existing projects that are targeting FCV risks and new risk‐focused operations will be prioritized. They will address the drivers of risk, support a scale‐up of activities, and/or increase the coverage of regions that face stronger risks. Integrative beneficiary feedback mechanisms will be mainstreamed in the Guinea portfolio. As such, they will help to monitor FCV risks including the tracking of the overall perceived quality of public services. The Bank will support activities designed to increase civic engagement and the inclusion of citizens in decision‐making, as well as the design and implementation of expenditure and service delivery decisions that directly affect them. This will help to reinforce the social contract. In particular, with 60 percent of the population under the age of 25, the Bank will help to create citizen engagement spaces for youth at the local levels. Some aspects of fragility will also be addressed by the IFC, specifically with respect to supporting the development of the private sector in general, and its efforts to improve the impact of investments in the mining sector on the local economy in particular. 44. As part of its approach to mitigating risks, the WBG will place special emphasis on the improvement of local governance and service delivery, as well as on improved accountability and transparency in the extractives sector. The overall objective will be to help build popular trust in governmental institutions and strengthen the capacity of local actors to prevent and mitigate conflicts and settle disputes. Decentralized service delivery, especially in the health and education sectors, will be improved as a means of addressing key popular grievances across the country related to unequal local service provision. Electricity distribution in Conakry, secondary cities and rural areas will also be boosted. The World Bank will also support a more transparent and inclusive management of the mining sector, strengthening the capacity and governance systems of key institutions and supporting the implementation of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). The ultimate aim will be to improve the distribution of resources arising from the sector. 45. The World Bank will also help to improve resilience to shocks and will focus on promoting access to employment for youth. To protect rural households from unexpected shocks that can negatively affect incomes (and act as driver of fragility), the Bank will support the development of social protection systems. This will include the use of labor‐intensive technologies (including public works) to maximize income‐earning opportunities for the unemployed, especially young people. Interventions will also support education and vocational training, and improvements to connectivity and logistics within rural areas to improve the physical access of young people to job opportunities in towns and cities Maximizing Finance for Development Approach 46. The WBG will also aim to create markets and crowd in private capital (the Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD) Approach). Given this objective, the CPF has been developed and will be delivered jointly with IFC and MIGA. Wherever possible, robust synergies across the WBG will be advanced.
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World Bank’s role. Consistent with the selectivity filters discussed above, IDA will act as a platform, knowledge generator and financier of last resort. Concessional resources — for instance, technical assistance (TA), direct financing, and PPP structuring — will be used for policy reforms that de‐risk sectors, thereby crowding in private capital and contributing to the creation of markets. IDA support will also be directed toward the use of seed and preparatory funding, especially for large transformational operations. More generally, the program will be based on: (i) crowding‐in of international and domestic private sector financing; and (ii) utilization of innovative financing models, including PPPs and guarantees. Policy reforms in the CPF’s three focus areas will be supported by a series of Development Policy Operations (DPOs) designed to support the achievement of the Government’s reform objectives.
IFC’s role. Complementing the World Bank’s approach, IFC focuses on promoting sustainable inclusive growth, enhancing competitiveness and creating employment in Guinea. As such, IFC will primarily target the agribusiness, financial, infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. IFC’s renewed strategy, IFC 3.0, is particularly relevant for Guinea. In order to deepen its engagement and leverage the IDA 18 private sector window, IFC would focus on: (i) pursuing value chain and cross‐sectoral approaches; (ii) leveraging internal and external stakeholders; and (iii) proposing new products and solutions. This will allow the WBG to adopt a systematic and sequenced approach to create markets by scaling up private sector solutions and catalyzing private capital. IFC will also prioritize the development of power/utilities, telecommunications, and transport, as well as support for a favorable environment (regulation, capacity building) for the implementation of PPPs.
MIGA’s role. MIGA can provide political risk insurance in Guinea, to support projects aligned with the CPF. This may include through leveraging the MIGA Guarantee Facility (MGF) which is part of the IFC‐MIGA Private Sector Window under the IDA 18 replenishment.
Addressing climate‐related threats and vulnerabilities 47. The CPF seeks to increase the resilience of Guinea’s population to climate‐related threats and vulnerabilities. This begins with assisting Guinea in the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as well as implementation of the natural resource pillar of the PNDES. Under this CPF, the Bank will also follow a systematic approach to maximizing climate change co‐benefits of its investments and policy reforms under the DPO series. The WBG will work with the GoG and other development partners to mitigate the negative effects of mining on the environment. Specifically, it will achieve this through its support for improved management of the mining sector, natural resources and biodiversity. The Bank will design its operations in fostering agricultural productivity and economic diversification in ways that promote climate‐smart agricultural practices. The Bank will also provide IDA resources to improve selected feeder and rural roads in a climate‐resilient manner to make remote agricultural production areas more accessible. This will also help to connect smallholder farmers to markets and attract private sector investment into agriculture value chains. Spatial approach 48. The CPF also adopts a spatial approach concentrating, where possible, on areas of maximum need as well as opportunity. An example is the focus in the Boké region of a significant share of WBG support for agriculture, rural mobility and mining governance.
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E. Objectives Supported by the WBG Program
49. The CPF comprises nine objectives, clustered under three Pillars and aligned with the main constraints identified by the SCD. Specifically, they comprise: fiscal and natural resource management; human development; agricultural productivity and economic diversification (see Figure 4). Three cross‐cutting themes inform the entire Program, namely women’s empowerment, economic diversification and resilience. The results matrix includes further details of the application of selectivity for each objective. The objectives are a selective sub‐set of the priorities proposed in the SCD. The objectives and their indicators are not an exhaustive description of all WBG activities. Rather, they are intended to indicate the core thrust of WBG intentions.
Figure 4: Summary of CPF Pillars and Objectives
Pillar One: Fiscal and Natural Resource Management 50. Weak institutions in Guinea have led to a fragile political and social compact, poor natural resource management, weak fiscal management, and ineffective public investments. Guinea scores in the lowest quartile of the world for all governance‐related indicators (Worldwide Governance Indicator [WGI], and Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability [PEFA]), with a high level of mistrust in government (Afrobarometer). This regularly translates into episodes of social unrest. The first Pillar, “Fiscal and natural resource management’’, comprises three objectives which aim to: (i) improve Guinea’s capacity to raise revenues and manage financial resources more effectively; (ii) bring the control and delivery of public services closer to users; and (iii) improve the management of mining, natural resources and biodiversity. Increasing resources and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of their management at central levels are critical necessary preconditions for improving service delivery. Decentralization of resources will bring the management of resources closer to the users who stand to benefit from improved services. Finally, improved management of mining, natural resources and biodiversity is critical to ensuring that exploitation of these resources is sustainable both economically and environmentally, and that biodiversity is safeguarded.
Fiscal and natural resource management
Human development
Agricultural productivity and economic growth
3
• Improved public fiscal and financial management
•Decentralization of service delivery, including health and education, and better engagement of citizens
• Improved management of mining, natural resources, and biodiversity
• Improved basic education, especially in rural areas
• Improved health and social protection, especially in rural areas
• Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets
•Better access to energy and water through improved management of utilities
• Improved business environment
•Maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young people
PILLA
RS
OBJECTIVES
21
KEY CROSS‐PILLAR OBJECTIVES: women’s empowerment; economic diversification; resilience
18
CPF Objective 1: Improved public fiscal and financial management Indicators: 1.1 Average annual increase in real tax revenue collection. 1.2 Share of state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) that have published a full set of audited annual financial statements and audit reports.
51. The Bank will support further reforms, including implementation, to rationalize and contain governmental expenditures. The Bank will pursue various measures, including increasing the use of technology to automate the PFM systems. In this context, it will also deepen its support for financial resource management with a focus on improving service delivery and public investment management. Other measures include improving PFM at the sector level (linked to the separate Decentralization objective below) and strengthening the SOE sector. To achieve this, the Bank will pay special attention to the need for capacity building to support governance and PFM reforms through the project on Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building, Additional Financing (FY17). This should improve sector capacity to conduct investment planning and budget management and control. This approach complements DPO support for the macroeconomic and fiscal framework, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen the efficiency of the government’s public expenditures and statistical functions. The latter includes the capacity of the National Institute for Statistics (INS) to conduct surveys — including the planned 2018 Household Survey — and censuses in the agricultural and other sectors. This will help to strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of public programs. DPO support could also generate climate co‐benefits, for example through the refinement of criteria used in public investment decision‐making. Finally, civil service accountability and delivery in key line ministries (initially health and education) will be strengthened by reinforcing policy lending initiatives, such as the Second Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Operation. 52. The Bank will explore opportunities to increase the available public resources for public investment and service delivery to complement PFM reforms supported through policy lending. The planned support complements activities foreseen in policy lending. First, the WBG will provide technical support to better link contract management in the mining sector with budget execution using ICT. This will help to identify the type and content of further interventions in the sector. Second, in parallel, the Bank will help to address key financing challenges in Guinea by supporting domestic revenue mobilization and the reduction of Illicit Financial Flows (IFF). It will achieve this by: (i) addressing structural and institutional issues in the Guinean taxation system; (ii) automating the tax collection that is such a critical precondition for expanding the taxpayer base and improving data analytics; (iii) measuring illicit flows; and (iv) assisting Guinea in preventing and stopping IFFs.
CPF Objective 2: Decentralization of service delivery, including health and education, and better engagement of citizens Indicators: 2.1 Proportion of frontline health facilities with increased financing for operational expenses. 2.2 Proportion of rural schools receiving their grants on time and utilizing at least 60 percent of the amount in an effective manner. 2.3 Increased rate of satisfaction with governmental basic services (health, basic education, and justice). 2.4 Number of communes participating in local development decisions in selected areas.
53. The provision of education and health services across geographical areas and regions is highly uneven in Guinea. This reflects the gap between policy objectives and reality with respect to budgetary planning, allocation, execution and citizen monitoring in front line services and infrastructure delivery. The Bank will support the establishment of a system of inter‐governmental fiscal transfers, leveraging the success of the Village Communes Program (PACV) in building local government capacity and enabling community development. It will also build on local PFM systems
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to support local basic service delivery. Addressing the unequal delivery of local services will contribute to addressing key popular grievances. To date, local councils have produced local development plans in a participatory manner, but these are not systematically funded. Local councils need to be integrated into the management of public finances — from the budget planning to execution and control stages — with stronger engagement by local communities in the process. Deconcentrated administration and central budgetary planning, including investment projects and civil servant salary allocations, do not take into account local preferences as expressed in the Local Development Plans (PDL). Further, revenue mobilization remains low and incentives to increase revenue sources are lacking. Although local tax mobilization needs to be increased through greater local budgetary accountability and citizen engagement, there is also room to increase the effectiveness of central transfers from the State. This can be achieved through a number of channels, including the National Fund for Local Development (FNDL), the Special Fund for Investment (FIS) and other channels — including consideration of additional performance‐related financing based on better budgetary management and execution. 54. The Bank will work with the Government to scale up the highly successful PACV program through the Project on Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance (FY19). It will use ear‐marked mining revenues channeled through the FNDL, and institutionalize citizen engagement mechanisms for participatory budgeting and monitoring — thereby placing the PACV program on a sustainable technical and financial footing. However, improving service delivery will not be sufficient to (re‐)build trust in institutions. Institutions need to be strengthened as they will provide a foundation for power sharing, conflict mitigation and dispute settlement, as well as resource redistribution. Building on the PACV, the capacity of local actors will be supported to reinforce social cohesion to prevent and mitigate conflicts through early warning and response systems built on community mobilization. These mechanisms will be tested under the ongoing PACV and mainstreamed across local institutions and communities under the planned project. This will occur before the Presidential elections slated for 2020, which will likely entail particular risks for tensions and conflicts. Community institutions and citizen engagement mechanisms (including participatory planning budgeting, participatory monitoring, and enhanced feedback mechanisms) developed under the PACV and the new Local Governance Project can help rebuild relationships between young people and the broader community, as well as between communities and local authorities. In particular, both projects provide an institutional space for young people’s voices to be heard and for them to begin engaging as citizens by channeling their ideas, skills, and enthusiasm toward productive ends. 55. The Bank will also use the CPF to build a systematic Citizen Engagement (CE) Roadmap to mainstream CE approaches across its portfolio. This will build on existing efforts to encourage community participation and citizen feedback at the rural commune level in support of decentralization. It will be done through an operational ASA looking at the current portfolio and pipeline to ensure CE mechanisms are mainstreamed and consolidated into a country‐wide approach with clear milestones and expected results. This will also include engaging the various task teams in the process. This dimension is important to ensure the success of governance objectives and front‐line service delivery in a low capacity environment. It is also a key strategy for promoting the economic empowerment of women, youth and the poor by prioritizing their needs and monitoring local budgets and feedback with respect to local service delivery. Examples of successful citizen engagement in World Bank‐supported service delivery include the Community Village Support Program, the use of results‐based financing in health, and the provision of grants to schools under teacher management. 56. The Bank will support Guinea in adopting improved technology to enhance its proof of identity (ID) systems. Reliable proof of identity is required in order to identify voters for elections, beneficiaries for social welfare programs, civil servants, and mobile subscribers for mobile banking. IDs are also used to deliver official documents, such as passports or driver licenses. Identification of citizens and residents falls under several ministries in Guinea. Many initiatives have been launched in
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parallel, but without coordination or follow‐up — resulting in duplication, waste of public resources, and no reusable database. Therefore, the Bank will provide financing for a regional Identification for Development (ID4D) project. The project will support the extension of reliable proof of identify systems to improve access to services, notably with regard to finance and social protection.
CPF Objective 3: Improved management of mining, natural resources and biodiversity Indicators: 3.1 Increased number of community projects financed by the Economic Development Fund (FODEL). 3.2 Country NDC objectives/actions related to natural resource management achieved.
57. Foreign investment is increasing in the mining and hydropower generation sectors. Mining accounted for 35 percent of GDP and about 80 percent of exports in 2015. However, due to poor management of the sector, revenues from the mining sector have been declining in relation to GDP over the past few years. This occurred despite the expanded potential of its mineral wealth, as provided for in the 2011 mining code. Under this CPF, the World Bank will continue to provide IDA resources to strengthen capacity and governance systems of key institutions for managing the minerals sector in Guinea, as well as support for the implementation of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). The World Bank will also help improve the early warning mechanism for communal conflicts, many of which are related to mining. A local level conflict resolution system will be supported and will be triggered ahead of violence (see objective 2). Bank support will help to enhance the mining sector’s contribution to sustainable development at both the central and decentralized levels, for example, through the provision of technical assistance to improve the distribution of mining resources by FODEL. FODEL is a recently established Fund that, under the aegis of the Ministry of Mines, channels contributions from mining companies into communities for local development. Through its investments and guarantees in the mining sector, for example, in Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG) and Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), IFC and MIGA will aim to promote a more inclusive mining sector with enhanced local economic benefits for communities and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) around the mining regions. Specific advisory programs will ensure that the cumulative impact on the environment and biodiversity are addressed to ensure sustainable development of the sector.
58. The World Bank, IFC and MIGA will build on their already close working partnership in the mining sector, including the goal of reducing negative impacts of mining on biodiversity. IFC’s approved facilities amount to $285 million, with MIGA considering guarantees of up to US$125 million. Supporting these investments would not have been possible without the Bank’s interventions in governance through the Mineral Governance Support Project. Under the CPF, the Bank will advise and strengthen the capacity of the GoG and regional organizations active in Guinea regarding the safeguard risks associated with the biodiversity‐hydropower‐mining nexus, including development of multi‐sectoral development plans in biodiversity rich areas (including the Moyen‐Bafing Region, where there is an opportunity to complement ongoing IFC’s activities). More broadly, the Bank will assist Guinea in the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as well as in the implementation of the natural resource pillar of the PNDES. Efforts will also be made to coordinate with other partners. These initiatives are likely to generate significant climate co‐benefits.
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Pillar Two: Human Development 59. The World Bank will help to improve the quality of education and health services at local levels, as well as strengthening social protection systems to help mitigate unexpected shocks. Strengthening Guinea’s human capital lies at the heart of the country’s development priorities. Improving the education and health systems is also part of the Bank’s Risk Reduction Strategy. Therefore, the Bank will continue to maintain systems put in place in the aftermath of the Ebola Crisis. For example, the Bank will continue to support the cross‐border, regional disease surveillance infrastructure that was put in place after the Ebola outbreak. This infrastructure aims to address systemic weaknesses within the human and animal health sectors that hinder effective disease surveillance and response.
CPF Objective 4: Improved basic education, especially in rural areas Indicators: 4.1 Percentage increase in the share of children benefiting from early childhood development
(ECD) services and pre‐school, including pre‐school and parental education. 4.2 Share of primary schools with a minimally adequate quality of service. 4.3 Number of adults trained through adult literacy campaigns. 4.4 Reading ability of early grade students in targeted areas.
60. As in other West African countries, Guinean schools have become much more accessible in recent years; however, students are not learning enough. At the basic education level, almost 90 percent of children in grades two and three cannot read simple texts. This has serious implications for human capital development in a country with a high illiteracy rate (30 percent of the overall population). The main cause of this low quality of basic education is the historically weak financing of education. Combined with weak management capacity, this has led to large gaps in the quality of service delivery, including teacher and textbook shortages, as well as insufficient attention to preparing children for school (that is, through ECD, or pre‐school). 61. WBG support will help to improve the results in education, with a focus on basic and secondary education and adult literacy. This support will consist of: (1) the training of primary school teachers in pedagogy and techniques for teaching reading and other foundational skills with a focus on achieving concrete results in the early grades of school; (2) improving teaching in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) in secondary and higher education in order to produce a cohort of youth with the skills needed for boosting economic growth; and (3) improving teacher management and deployment (through the use of results‐based financing). WBG support will also strengthen the capacity of the Ministry of Education and its deconcentrated levels to better manage resources for improved education results. In addition, the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) Trust Fund supervised by the Bank will support adult literacy training.
62. The CPF will address gender gaps in education and promote women’s empowerment. The Bank will support conditional cash transfers to encourage the education of girls, particularly in the areas of Boké, Kankan and Labé, where girls’ primary completion rates are particularly low. It will also support sensitization of primary school teachers about the importance of girls’ education, as well as measures to improve adult women’s literacy.
CPF Objective 5: Improved health and social protection, especially in rural areas Indicators: 5.1 Share of children fully vaccinated.10
10 This includes children aged 12‐23 months receiving all recommended vaccinations before their first birthday according to the National Vaccination Program (including measles vaccinations before their second birthday).
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5.2 Share of deliveries assisted by trained health personnel. 5.3 Number of beneficiaries of social safety net programs. 5.4 Number of households in unique registry with complete information.
63. The Bank will invest in health at the district level and below to complement efforts to decentralize the financing and management of health care. With the new Health, Nutrition and Population Investment Project, which will complement a number of ongoing health projects, the Bank will invest in five of the eight regions in Guinea. This will improve the lives of more than half of the population in Guinea who are dependent on the community and primary levels for their health services. Interventions will help strengthen district level capacity to train, deploy and supervise health professionals at the local level. It will also help to strengthen local financing for pharmaceuticals and supplies, including contraceptive supplies and other requirements for maternal health. Further, it will improve accountability systems and available data for monitoring and planning efforts. In addition, with the financial support of the Global Financing Facility (GFF), the Bank will provide technical assistance and support for policy dialogue to work toward a system of greater technical and allocative efficiency in health financing. The need for more systemic reform regarding health financing in Guinea is evident. However, it will take time and preparation. The solution includes a move toward pooled funding for health, and increased decentralized financing (including financing health worker posts at the facility level, rather than health workers directly). More generally, it also entails greater financing and managerial autonomy, capacity and accountability at the local, district and regional levels. Currently, despite a move toward decentralization in theory, sub‐national authorities including district and regional level health authorities (prefectures) all lack the funding, incentives, accountability systems and staff motivation to be effective. 64. Households in rural areas are poorly protected — for example, through social protection mechanisms — from unexpected shocks that can negatively affect their incomes. The Bank will support the building of a social protection system to address this vulnerability. The proposed system is already being developed as part of the social protection support that the Bank is providing to Guinea, and there has been significant progress. The proposed new operation would increase ongoing efforts with a view to improving coverage and coordination of programs, reducing targeting errors, and improving the efficiency of the social spending sectors. One important example of such a coordinated approach, which will be initiated under the Bank’s current support to social protection, is to ensure that WBG‐funded projects use labor‐intensive technologies (including public works) to the extent possible to maximize income‐earning opportunities for the unemployed, especially young people. Another objective for such a coordinated approach is to lay the foundation for a unified social registry, which could be used by other sectors, including the health and education sectors (for example, by better targeting of free care or scholarships). This approach will leverage early results of work carried out in identification systems in conjunction with the Identification for Development (ID4D) Project. 65. As noted in the SCD, women’s economic participation in Guinea is constrained by societal norms. These norms restrict the types of work seen as suitable for them. They also burden women with a greater responsibility for domestic tasks, such as childcare and fetching water. Bank support for productive social safety net approaches will aim to address the structural causes of women’s limited economic participation and increase their productivity. Measures will include tasking some women beneficiaries with providing childcare services, so that other women can participate in a Labor‐Intensive Public Works Program (LIPW). Women’s participation in the LIPW will also be promoted by ensuring the inclusion of ‘gender‐friendly’ tasks (such as preliminary cleaning of sites and breaking and carrying small stones); a 50 percent quota for female participants; a sensitization campaign to raise awareness of the quota and of the need to include women; and initiatives that help question discriminatory gender norms, for example, have men undertake traditionally female tasks and vice versa.
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Pillar Three: Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth 66. Poverty is highest in rural areas (with 65 percent of the population living in poverty), where agricultural productivity is one‐quarter that of Mali and one‐half that of Senegal. Drought is expected to present the highest climate risk for Guinea, with rainfall already decreasing, resulting in disruption of incomes, interruptions in the agricultural calendar, and the disturbance of river‐based ecosystems.
Figure 5: Maximizing Finance for Development in Pillar 3
Note: FI= Financial Institution; IBRD= International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; IDA= International Development Association; IFC= International Finance Corporation; MFD= Maximizing Finance for Development; MIGA= Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency; PPP= public‐private partnership; PSW= Private Sector Window; TVET= Technical and Vocational Education and Training. 67. The WBG will employ a mix of policy reforms and risk reduction and investment approaches to maximize the development impact of its financial support (see Figure 5). It will support measures to boost agricultural productivity, making use of climate‐smart agriculture practices. It will also improve access to markets, and promote economic diversification. Further, it will invest in the infrastructure (especially water and power) and business environment of market towns – critical pre‐conditions for promoting economic diversification. Additional support will be provided for improved management of key utilities. Better management of key utilities in water and energy is a further critical requirement for increasing the access to and reliability of electricity and water services, as well as a vital input to diversification. IFC will focus on reducing regulatory constraints and addressing other business environment issues. It will also seek to improve access to finance and land so as to de‐risk investments and crowd in private capital. In addition, IFC will work to support SMEs through the enhancement of SME supplier development programs, specifically for the mining value chains. Together, these investments will improve market demand for agricultural products. In addition, they will help create the conditions for increased employment of Guinea’s under‐employed youth, thereby creating alternatives to rural‐urban migration flows —and addressing one of the potential drivers of political instability and unrest.
Commercial financing can deliver sustainable development cost effectively
Upstream reforms being put in place to address market failure
Risk instruments and credit enhancements to cover residual risk
Scarce IDA and other public resources used to achieve development objectives
Pillar 3 Objective MFD element
Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets
Better access to energy and water services through improved management of utilities
2
1
Example
42 •Policy reforms of input markets• IFC investments in value chains•PSW window to de‐risk environment• IDA lending on IBRD terms for agribusiness infrastructure
• IDA investment in rural roads
•World Bank and IFC supporting implementation of PPP Law and management of energy and water utilities
•MIGA de‐risking, and IFC co‐investing in, hydro and solar energy sectors
•World Bank investing in power infrastructure in selected areas
3Improved business environment
4 • IFC partnering with FIs to reduce trade and other risk
• IDA investing in financial sector infrastructure (eg potentially mobile money)
1
Maximize access to job opportunities especially for young people
42 •World Bank support for reform of TVET sector• IFC investment in affordable housing and World Bank projects providing jobs for young people
2 3 4
3
3
31 4
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CPF Objective 6: Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets Indicators: 6.1 Percentage increase in output per hectare of rice and maize by direct beneficiaries (by female
beneficiaries). 6.2 Rural roads rehabilitated per year. 6.3 Area benefiting from diffusion of climate‐smart technologies.
68. The GoG’s objectives are to modernize the production of food production and encourage the commercialization of agricultural outputs, including products for export. The National Agricultural Development Policy (PNDA) aims to achieve strong and shared agricultural growth of 6 percent per year. Policy objectives include: (i) encouraging a shift from subsistence to market agriculture by supporting the modernization of family farms and private investment in the sector; (ii) promoting the growth and diversification of food production; (iii) developing agricultural exports; (iv) improving market access and the efficiency of marketing and distribution channels through the rehabilitation of transport and marketing infrastructure; and (v) ensuring the sustainable use of natural resources and the environment. The associated set of operational actions are contained in the National Agricultural Investment and Food Security Plan (PNIASA, 2013‐17). 69. To increase agriculture productivity and commercialization while also taking into account Guinea’s vulnerability to climate change, the WBG will closely align its CPF interventions with existing programs. This will include the Accelerated Program for Food and Nutritional Security, and Sustainable Agricultural Development ‐ PASANDAD, 2016‐2020 (Programme Accéléré de Sécurité Alimentaire et Nutritionnelle et de Développement Agricole Durable). The WBG’s approach will also involve a comprehensive approach to Maximizing Finance for Development. The Bank will provide IDA resources for an Integrated Agricultural Development Project to increase productivity and market transactions between producers and downstream actors for selected staple value‐chains (for example, rice potatoes and horticulture; dairy, poultry, smoked fish and related fodder and the feed industry, and so on) both for domestic and immediate, neighboring markets. This project is expected to generate significant climate co‐benefits through its support for technologies and practices that reduce the risk of crop failure due to drought and reduced rain fall. Part of this support is envisaged to be on IBRD terms through the Scale‐Up Facility. In addition, the Bank will provide IBRD resources for an Agribusiness Development Project (Enclave Project) to support Guinea’s repositioning in the regional and global arena as an exporter of selected agricultural products (including tree crops such as cashews, cocoa and coffee, as well as fresh and primarily processed fruits, and so on) where its comparative advantage could be rebuilt or improved. Building on synergies and partnerships with other donors, the Bank will complement CPF investments in the agriculture sector with strong policy reforms to overcome structural constraints, such as constraints impacting seed and fertilizer markets and agriculture equipment supply chains, land policy, and agriculture finance. Looking ahead, the WBG will consider using facilities available under the IDA18 PSW to de‐risk the sector and facilitate private sector investments to accelerate the development of Guinean agribusiness. To boost agribusiness and food security, IFC will focus on developing agribusiness value chains. As such, IFC intends to invest (directly and/or through mobilization) in agriculture and agro‐processing projects with the objective of improving access to markets. 70. The WBG will invest in improving mobility and connectivity in rural areas. Improved spatial connectivity is necessary for equitable and sustainable growth. In the absence of market access, increases in agricultural and livestock production may remain unsold, and the positive effects of productivity‐enhancing investments may remain marginal with depressed prices. The poor state of rural roads and the feeder network constitute significant barriers for farmers attempting to access markets. Key constraints to Guinean agribusiness development also include: the deficient state of Guinea’s national roads network and key transport corridors; poor transport logistics and difficulties and costs related to accessing Conakry port, the country’s main gateway; and lack of access to
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electricity. The CPF proposes a combination of activities in rural production infrastructure focused on mobility and connectivity that also offer the potential to generate climate co‐benefits. The Bank will provide IDA resources to improve selected feeder and rural roads in a climate‐resilient manner. These improvements will make remote agricultural production areas more accessible, connect small holder farmers to markets, and attract private sector investment into agriculture value chains. The Bank will also invest in ASA to identify opportunities to improve connectivity and logistics along selected regional corridors with the goal of improving access to Conakry port for export‐oriented products under a possible future Regional Corridor Project. Key structural reforms such as improving the funding mechanism for the maintenance of national roads, reducing market distortions in the transportation sector, and developing and implementing a comprehensive legal framework, will be supported by the CPF through the proposed series of Development Policy Operations. 71. The Bank will support the use of improved labor‐saving irrigation systems, which should alleviate the time burden women face in performing irrigation tasks; it will also help promote women’s empowerment. This is important as regional evidence identifies women’s lower access and returns to farm labor as a major determinant of their lower agricultural productivity. It also points to the importance of supporting women’s access to labor‐saving technology. In addition, the Bank will support the development of technical and management skills of producers’ groups, including women’s groups.
CPF Objective 7: Better access to energy and water through improved management of utilities Indicators: 7.1 Increased access to electricity in urban and in rural areas. 7.2 Number of people in urban areas already connected and provided with access to enhanced
water supply services.
72. The public electricity utility, Electricity of Guinea (EDG), has performed poorly and is structurally in deficit. It does not have adequate cost‐recovery mechanisms and has embarked on a program of reform and organizational change through a four‐year management services contract with a private operator (see Box 1). In line with the 2012 National Power Sector Recovery Plan and the National Electricity Access Scale‐up Program, the World Bank will continue to support better EDG performance. The Bank will also help to address serious challenges in Greater Conakry (where 80 percent of EDG customers live) and rural areas with high poverty rates, such as Kindia. Key issues include: low access to electricity; high system losses (around 35 percent in 2016); illegal connections; an inadequate billing system; and a relatively weak revenue collection rate (about 79 percent in 2016). 73. Hydropower also has the potential to transform the energy sector and generate revenues through the sale of power to neighboring countries. In response to significant power cuts of ten hours or more per day experienced as recently as 2014, Guinea has adopted a strategy to develop its hydropower potential, estimated at six gigawatts (GW). Guinea’s ambition is to make use of low‐cost hydroelectricity to meet its domestic energy demand. In the medium term, it hopes to become a major exporter of electricity to neighboring countries within the West Africa Power Pool. However, to date, Guinea lacks the domestic capacity to develop an integrated approach to hydropower development — and to negotiate optimal terms with individual investors. The World Bank is currently supporting the GoG in developing an Atlas that will record hydropower reservoirs. The Bank will not provide IDA funds to invest in hydropower infrastructure in Guinea. However, it may support, on a case‐by‐case basis, the strengthening of the GoG’s capacity to simultaneously prepare technical feasibility and safeguard studies to attract private sector investment in hydropower projects. This is also in alignment with the country’s 2012 National Power Sector Recovery Plan. In particular, the Bank will seek to support studies that take an integrated approach to the analysis of Guinea’s diverse natural resources, while also taking into account the multi‐sectoral effects of activity in one sector on another.
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74. IFC will build on policy reforms supported by the World Bank; MIGA will facilitate de‐risking to foster foreign private‐led‐investments in hydro and solar power generation. Leveraging its investments in the mining regions, IFC will continue to prospect for energy generation projects with private companies using a combination of either hydro or solar energy (or both) solutions. The IFC and the World Bank are already supporting the Government in implementing the recently adopted PPP law. With this foundation, IFC will promote the broader sectoral use of PPP solutions in Guinea. In addition, the World Bank is funding the EDG management contract. IFC has responded favorably to a request for assistance with a management contract for the national water company, the Guinea Water Company (SEG). Beyond this, IFC’s Infra‐Ventures could provide seed funding for early feasibility and environmental impact studies to bring the projects to a development phase. IFC's engagement in energy would contribute to the sustainable development of the sector by using the most advanced environmental standards, while also accounting for Guinea's biodiversity. This could be supported by World Bank Guarantees or/or the IFC‐MIGA Private Sector Window. 75. The operational performance of the water utility company, the SEG, also needs to be strengthened with private sector involvement. Under the proposed CPF, the World Bank will provide IDA resources to: (i) increase access to improved water services in the Greater Conakry area, and enhance the operational efficiency of the urban water utility, the SEG; (ii) support the development of a sanitation strategy and master plan; and (iii) consider a private sector solution in the form of a management contract or similar formula to improve SEG’s performance.
76. World Bank support for the improvement of water service coverage should also free women’s time for additional productive activities. Improving water service coverage will reduce the need for women to spend several hours each day searching for water. Given the importance of the sector to women, the World Bank will promote women’s participation in its initiatives. This will include the use of public information events targeted to women, and the recruitment of at least 40 percent of women to work as community facilitators. The World Bank will also invest in a Water, Hygiene, Sanitation (WASH) Poverty Diagnostic ASA, which will provide the basis for future cross‐Global Practice work on issues of water, nutrition, and cholera. It will also facilitate coordinated work among WASH partners, particularly for rural water supplies and sanitation.
CPF Objective 8: Improved business environment Indicators: 8.1 Lower percentage of single source contracts in public investment projects. 8.2 Improved access to finance for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME).
77. Identifying and fostering high‐growth value chains can generate ‘win‐win’ linkages between urban SMEs and agricultural growth and extractive clusters in non‐urban areas. The World Bank and IFC will work with local industry associations and relevant government agencies, including the Private Investment Promotion Agency (APIP), to identify local and regional value chains with the potential to attract private investment. It will help develop a two‐tier system. The first tier will link established local companies and large multinationals. The second tier will link local SMEs and established large local companies supplying multinationals. Support activities will include project preparation, development and implementation (such as feasibility and market studies), financial and technical partnerships, and training programs for skilled labor. It will also include the development of a platform to support enterprise development and SME competitiveness within select value chains across the SME ecosystem — including incubation, growth and expansion, entrepreneurship and value chain linkages programs, as well as access to financial services and capital, including equity investment. 78. The WBG will address the cross‐sectoral constraints faced by both individuals and firms accessing financial services, including promoting the use of mobile technology. Financial inclusion
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can facilitate increased agricultural productivity. Currently, only a limited share of the rural population has access to a bank account, saves, and obtains credit through the financial sector. The WBG will consider support for the development of the mobile money market, that is, its seamless integration into the financial sector landscape (building on the payment system infrastructure supported by a previous Bank project). Specifically, it will include support to facilitate access to credit for entrepreneurs and SMEs. For its part, IFC will continue to provide support through: (i) partnerships with banks, microfinance institutions, and other non‐bank financial institutions to ease access to finance through trade and risk‐sharing facilities; (ii) capacity building for financial institutions; and (iii) the development of new products such as leasing, digital finance services and SME venture solutions. In addition to its direct support to MSMEs, IFC will consider providing capacity building for the regulator. It is also contributing to the development of financial infrastructure, such as collateral registries. 79. The Guinea SCD identified low access to finance as a barrier to women’s economic empowerment, notably for women entrepreneurs. The Bank will explore the inclusion of gender considerations in a matching grant facility that will support SME capacity and access to markets. It is considering including an impact evaluation to analyze the gender differentiated impacts of the approach. In addition, it will explore opportunities to increase access to financial services to boost female entrepreneurship, and to build on recent research highlighting the effectiveness of socio‐emotional skills training to boost entrepreneurship. 80. The CPF will invest in ASA to better understand the bottlenecks preventing Guinea from reaping the benefits of urbanization in selected cities. A large part of Conakry’s population lives in overcrowded, under‐serviced conditions. The city is largely failing to reduce the distance between people, employers and employees, and buyers and sellers. The city has also been unable to link smart ideas and capital. The manufacturing sector is still embryonic and value chains are underdeveloped. Products incorporate a very low level of technological content. Sector‐specific expertise in companies is low. The resulting poor business performance means that there is a low demand for labor, and unemployment remains high. There are also untapped opportunities for building resilience in urban slums and housing and infrastructure. The World Bank will undertake a program of ASA on topics including infrastructure, spatial development, green housing programs, regulations, unclear property rights and opaque land tenure systems, and the like.
CPF Objective 9: Maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young people Indicator: 9.1 Number of adults (aged 25 years old or older) benefiting from jobs created by selected World Bank projects.11 9.2 Number of young people (aged 15‐24 years old) benefiting from jobs created by selected World Bank projects.
81. Guinea’s youth are ill‐prepared by the education system for work and are subject to high levels of structural unemployment and underemployment. Lack of skills and poor job opportunities restrict the life chances of youth. In addition, young rural migrants to the cities are adding stress to an already overwhelmed urban labor market and infrastructure. The poor diversification of the labor market, demographic stresses, and rapid and unregulated urbanization have led to frustrations, grievances and socio‐political unrest. In the past, urban youth have played a significant role in Guinea’s social and political unrest. If youth needs and concerns are not addressed, this could lead to socioeconomic and political instability, thereby constituting a driver of fragility.
11 This indicator includes beneficiaries from: (i) labor‐intensive public works (LIPW) programs (including the programs related to the building of rural roads); and (ii) income‐generating (IGA) and entrepreneurship activities.
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82. The WBG will seek to maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young urban dwellers. The proposed approach is three‐pronged. First, the Bank will continue to support the expansion of the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) sector through its skills operations (ongoing, with possible additional financing during the CPF period) to equip large groups of youth with adequate skills for the workplace. A continued emphasis will be placed on demand‐driven training in funding joint proposals from businesses and schools. This promising approach will be adopted by other projects, such as the MSME Growth Competitiveness and Access to Finance Project (which will expand the approach to the mining sector). Second, several pipeline projects will help to increase demand for job opportunities for these skills. These include the development of value chains (for example, IFC investments in affordable housing) and support for entrepreneurship (for example, the MSME Growth Competitiveness and Access to Finance Project and the Social Protection System Project). Third, creating economic opportunities in the agriculture sector, especially for youth, would help reduce migration and address the risk of social and political unrest associated with unemployment. Finally, programs will also focus on the sector’s inclusive growth and the intensity of job creation. This could mean favoring, at least in part, small‐scale agriculture as well as labor‐intensive public works projects for youth with low skills (or no skills at all). As such, the CPF is including funding for several labor‐intensive public works projects, as well as group entrepreneurship approaches (with the Rural Mobility and Connectivity Project and the Social Protection System Project).
F. Implementing the Country Partnership Framework 83. The total proposed Program represents a marked increase in resources available to Guinea and will span IDA 18 and IDA 19 (Table 2). Total World Bank resources available for the CPF six‐year period (FY2018‐FY23) could amount to over US$1.5 billion.12 These resources include both the Performance‐Based Allocation and the special allocation under the RMR13. Guinea is one of four countries eligible under IDA 18 to draw on the new RMR, which provides financing of up to one‐third of a country’s indicative original IDA 18 allocation during the IDA 18 period. In addition, the Bank plans to mobilize other windows under IDA 18, including the Scale‐Up Facility, the Private Sector Window, the Regional Integration Window, and so on. IBRD financing through enclave lending could be provided as well. Overall resources available for the coming six years are estimated to triple relative to the past four years, that was US$485 million during FY2014‐FY17. This increase is expected to put some pressure on the portfolio. However, its size is projected to remain globally under control from its current size of 10 national projects to 14 projects in FY23. This will be achieved by adopting a multi‐sectoral approach and increasing the average size of projects, as well as by scaling up successful projects through Additional Financing provisions. 84. The World Bank’s planned Program includes innovative use of both IDA and IBRD resources. About one‐third of the new Program is expected to be approved in FY18 and FY19. Over half of the Program is expected to be concentrated under Pillar Three (Agricultural Productivity and Employment), over a quarter under Pillar Two (Human Development), and about one‐fifth under Pillar One (Fiscal and Natural Resource Management). (See also Annex 3: New Lending Program FY18‐FY23 CPF for details). Guinea will also be considered for US$150 million under the Scale‐Up Facility (on IBRD terms). These resources would finance an Integrated Agricultural Development Project focusing on increasing productivity and market transactions between producers and downstream actors for
12 For the period FY2018‐FY20 this includes: about US$560‐620 million from IDA (national and regional allocations) on IDA terms and a further US$150million from IDA on IBRD terms (from the Scale‐Up Facility); and a possible US$175 million from IBRD during FY2018‐FY20. For the years FY2021‐FY23 resources are projected at US$200 million for each year (that is, assuming a similar level of resources is available under IDA19). 13 Referenced IDA18 volumes are indicative. They include the additional allocation from the IDA18 FCV Risk Mitigation Regime. Actual performance‐based allocations (PBA) will be determined annually during the FY2018‐20 period and will depend on: (i) total IDA resources available; (ii) the number of IDA‐eligible countries; (iii) the country’s performance rating, per capita gross national income (GNI), and population; and (iv) the performance and other allocation parameters for other IDA borrowers.
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selected staple value‐chains, for example, rice potatoes and horticulture, dairy, poultry, smoked fish and related fodder and feed industry, and so on. These products were targeted to both domestic and immediate neighboring markets, and were in keeping with the nation’s food security agenda. In addition, the Bank could consider providing US$175 million of IBRD resources for an agri‐business Enclave Project to support the repositioning of Guinea in the regional and global arena as an exporter of selected agricultural products, including tree crops such as cashews, cocoa and coffee, as well as fresh and primarily processed fruits, and so on. These represent areas in which Guinea’s comparative advantage could be rebuilt or improved. The Enclave Project would help diversify Guinea’s income and partly mitigate one of the FCV risks facing the country, namely the volatility of commodity prices. Debt service on the Enclave Project would be financed by earnings from the project itself (exports of crops), as well as by revenues from the mining sector. (See Annex 3: New Lending Program FY18‐FY23 CPF for details).
Table 2: Indicative Guinea Program (US$ millions)
Note: AF= Additional Financing; DPO= Development Policy Operation; FM= financial management; IBRD= International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; ICT= information and communications technologies; IDA= International Development Association; MSME= micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME); P4R= Program‐for‐Results; and SME= small and medium enterprises.
Second Macro and FM DPO 60.0Health Sevice and Capacity
Strengthening 3/45.0 Integrated Agricultural Development 40.0
Identification for Development and
ICT*50.0 Power Sector Recovery AF 25.0
Guinea Mali Interconnection* 75.0
First Macro and Sustainable
Growth DPO 40.0
Higher Education and Centers of
Excellence*10.0 Rural Mobility and Connectivity 3/ 40.0
Improving Institutional Capacity
and Local Governance 3/40.0
Education Program for Results
(P4R) 3/50.0
Support to MSME Growth Competitiveness
and Access to Finance30.0
Electricity Access Scale Up 3/ 50.0
Agribusiness Development Project 1/ 175.0
Second Macro and Sustainable
Growth DPO 40.0 Social Protection System 3/ 40.0
Climate Change and Biodiversity Capacity
Building Project20.0
Mineral Governance Support AF 3/ 25.0
Scale Up ‐ Integrated Agriculture Project 2 /
150.0
Third Macro and Sustainable
Growth DPO 40.0
Fourth Macro and Sustainable
Growth DPO 40.0
Fourth Macro and Sustainable
Growth DPO 40.0
1/ IBRD financed project
2/ SUF on IBRD terms3/ Earmarked to receive Risk Mitigation Regime funding
* regional project
FY20 (US$125 IDA and US$150m SUF)
FY21 (US$200.0)
FY19 (US$250 IDA and US$175 IBRD)
FY18 (US$295 million IDA)
Unprogrammed ‐ US$160 million
FY22 (US$200.0)
Unprogrammed ‐ US$160 million
FY23 (US$200.0)
Unprogrammed ‐ US$160 million
Fiscal and natural resource
management Amount Human development Amount
Agricultural productivity and economic
growthAmount
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85. World Bank funding instruments will include a DPO series and a PforR operation, as well as investment project financing. A series of programmatic and multisector DPOs is planned during the CPF period. The DPOs will target systemic change in the policy environment and potentially support reforms to: (i) the energy, agriculture, transport and/or mining sectors; (ii) improve the efficiency and effectiveness in the human development (HD) sector; and (iii) facilitate measures to further consolidate fiscal stability, including SOE reform. The WBG will work with the Government to ensure that higher levels of budget support are accompanied by greater efforts to mobilize and manage domestic resources. A second instrument involves results‐based lending (Program‐for‐Results, or P4R). This reflects increased confidence in Guinea’s ability to deliver results with external financing. The Bank will employ a P4R instrument in the education sector to move from project‐based interventions to a more programmatic approach. The close alignment of approaches between the Bank and the Government (developed in part through ASA, such as an education public expenditure review [PER]), together with the availability of data to enable the measurement of results, mean that this approach has the greatest chance of success. The Bank will also use Investment Project Financing (IPF) across all three Pillars and the cross‐cutting themes. 86. Where possible, IPFs will be delivered at scale to reduce transaction costs, as well as in ways that complement other DPO interventions. For example, the World Bank will help build statistical and institutional capacity to underpin investment planning and PFM, which will complement DPO support to the macroeconomic and fiscal framework. Additional financing will be used to scale up results where appropriate. 87. The WBG will pursue a sequenced, systematic approach in line with the principle of Maximizing Finance for Development to create markets and crowd in private capital. This entails using technical assistance and concessional resources upstream to enable private sector participation in critical sectors, such as infrastructure, agriculture, and housing. For the projects that could not otherwise be undertaken, IDA 18 PSW facilities would be deployed. This would include the Risk Mitigation Facility for infrastructure projects, the Blended‐Finance Facility for housing and agribusiness, as well as the Creating Markets Advisory Window for water and sanitation. IFC and MIGA, in particular, will work with private sector counterparts to catalyze foreign private investment in sectors such as agro‐industry and mining. 88. IFC and MIGA will work in collaboration to actively mobilize private investment in a range of sectors, building on World Bank policy reforms and investments. As noted, IFC’s investments will include support for reputable operators in specialized lending activities such as leasing, microfinance, and digital finance services. These interventions are intended to boost access to finance, while contributing significantly to job creation. Building on the WBG success in establishing a comprehensive PPP legal framework, IFC will work with the Government to promote private solutions in sectors such water and waste management. Regarding the mining sector, building on years of successful collaboration with the World Bank, IFC will continue to support the Government and its mining clients in their efforts to promote economic diversification through full implementation of the local content policy. IFC's engagement in the mining sector would contribute to sustainable development by using the most advanced environmental standards, while also taking into account Guinea's biodiversity specificities. Concerning energy, IFC is ready to work with the Government to identify the sites with the highest potential for hydro or solar energy projects that could be developed by private players, building on the World Bank’s interventions in the sector. IFC’s Infra‐Ventures could also provide seed funding for early feasibility and environmental impact studies to bring the projects to a development phase. With the IDA 18 PSW facilities and the establishment of a “Creating Market Advisory Window”, IFC will also be able to crowd in private capital finance projects in higher risk sectors, such as affordable housing, productive infrastructure (storage facilities) and/or light manufacturing.
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Table 3: Selected Planned Analytical and Advisory Assistance
Fiscal and Natural Resource Management
Human Development Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth
Completed
Systematic Country Diagnostic for Guinea
FY18
Implementing Interactive Beneficiary Feedback Mechanisms in the Guinea Portfolio
Tax and benefit incidence review Electricity costs and subsidies
(TA) – financed by Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP)
Labor market assessment (jobs, informality and urban youth)
Guinea Urbanization Review
Agricultural Sector Review
FY19
Mainstreaming Citizen Engagement in the Guinea portfolio
Gender assessment
TA for SOEs Diagnostic of constraints and opportunities to further mobilize domestic revenues and reduce illicit financial flows
Policy dialogue on education financing, education quality and early childhood development (ECD)
Mechanisms for early warning and conflict resolution at the local level
Guinea urbanization reform policy dialogue
Building resilience in informal settlements, including through energy efficient, low‐income, green housing; TA – financed by ESMAP.
FY20
Poverty Assessment
Risk and Resilience Assessment Update
Iterative Beneficiary Monitoring (FY19)
Distributional impact of spending
WASH Poverty Diagnostic
SDI / Service Delivery Indicators (education)
Assessing performance in the pharmaceutical sector
Digital development policy dialogue
Assessment of critical agribusiness export transport corridors, including Conakry‐port linkages
89. The World Bank’s ASA program in Guinea will comprise a combination of hands‐on technical assistance with impact evaluations, policy notes and broader reports. It will be used to support the ongoing program and dialogue, and to prepare future operations where knowledge gaps exist. The SCD, which has been completed, has provided the analytical basis for this CPF. A number of other policy notes and ASA on public expenditures, revenue mobilization, and the agriculture and energy sectors have also recently been prepared. They have helped to advance dialogue on reforms, as well as improve portfolio implementation. The proposed ASA program follows the same principles and is presented in Table 3. 90. IFC will work through its range of advisory services programs, including investment climate activities, as well as in close collaboration with other WBG institutions across a range of sectors. It will aim to create markets for Guinean agricultural products. Specifically, IFC’s advisory programs will be used as a first mover to support reputable investors, both local and foreign, interested in key value chains (horticulture, rice, dairy/poultry, folio, and coffee) supported by both the Guinea Agricultural Support Project, as well as the Enclave Agricultural Operation. IFC’s advisory services will also work closely with the new MSME Growth Support Operation to improve the financial infrastructure (credit bureau, and commercial courts).
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91. The WBG has fostered excellent relationships with donor partners in Guinea. The WBG’s portfolio, which is the largest among development partners in Guinea, has also helped to encourage donor coordination in sectors such as energy, mining, agriculture, private sector development, and PFM. The WBG is the lead coordinating institution of the Donor‐Government Dialogue for energy and mining. It also led the preparation of a Consultative Group meeting for development partners in November 2017.
Procurement and Financial Management Arrangements 92. Project implementation in Guinea faces several challenges, as evidenced by the lessons learned during the FY2014‐FY17 CPF. Overall, the quality of the portfolio is broadly satisfactory. In January 2018, at the level of Project Development Objectives, three projects were found to be satisfactory (S), five were moderately satisfactory (MS), and two moderately unsatisfactory (MU). In terms of implementation, three out of ten projects were rated satisfactory (S), and six moderately satisfactory (MS). Various implementation problems are common across the portfolio, however. These include: slowness in the entry into force of funding agreements (legal advice, recruitment of Project Management Units [PMUs], operational manuals, and so on); institutional arrangements that do not adequately address the capacity‐building needs of those involved in implementation; a lack of realism in planning activities; inadequate use of Procurement Plans; slow disbursement; and insufficient monitoring of the financial and technical implementation of operations. The World Bank will ensure that these weaknesses are mitigated through appropriate project design during FY2018‐FY23. Managing risks to the CPF Program in a fragile and insecure environment 93. The overall level of risk for this CPF is substantial. This reflects considerable political and governance risks, project and program technical design risks, institutional capacity weaknesses, and fiduciary and safeguards risks (Table 4: Systematic Operations Risk Rating Tool).
Table 4: Systematic Operations Risk Rating Tool
Risk Categories Rating (H, S, M or L)
Political and governance H
Macroeconomic S
Sector strategies and policies M
Technical design of projects or programs S
Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability S
Fiduciary S
Environment and social S
Stakeholders S
Overall S
Note: H=high; L=Low; M= Medium; S=Substantial. 94. The WBG will draw on the FCV Risk Regime introduced under IDA18. The FCV Risk Regime aims to provide a dedicated financing mechanism by which to incentivize investments in risk prevention. Its purpose is to provide enhanced support to countries to mitigate increasing risks of fragility, conflict, and violence where governments are committed to addressing them. In Guinea, such additional IDA funding could be used to support activities that address risk factors which, if left unaddressed, have the potential to reverse progress toward stability and growth. It could also be used to mitigate short‐term risks by delivering quick wins in a context where the state lacks legitimacy and/or social discontent drives instability. Examples of how the WBG’s proposed engagement
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addresses these fragility risks are set out in Annex 6: Implementation Note for the IDA 18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR) in Guinea.
95. The Bank will monitor key trends in FCV‐related risks at the strategic level and integrate relevant FCV‐specific indicators into new projects — notably those that will benefit from the Risk Mitigation Regime. The Bank will also periodically take stock of overall RMR implementation, including government commitment. In addition, it will undertake a qualitative assessment of the FCV landscape and the effectiveness of Bank RMR support in mitigating such risks. The Bank will support the government’s own efforts to monitor FCV‐related risks and provide assistance to a few targeted institutions. This support will be part of the envisaged operations that are financed by the RMR. It will build on the government’s on‐going efforts in establishing early conflict warning, and in building its own monitoring and evaluation and data collection capabilities. Political risks and governance 96. Guinea faces a wider range of destabilizing political risks which can be rated as high overall. These range from radical anti‐government or electoral protests to severe ethnic violence or scattered events that could further destabilize an already fragile state. Elections entail particular kinds of risks. For example, episodes of violence occurred following the communal elections that took place in February 2018. Legislative elections planned for 2019 and the Presidential elections scheduled for 2020 are also potential triggers for collective violence. The question of whether the president will seek a third term is perhaps the most crucial for Guinea’s political stability. Finally, revolts could be triggered by economic shocks or rising food and fuel prices in a context of high food insecurity. The WBG will continue to monitor political events and their impact on the WBG Program. A number of ASAs will help in this respect, including: an analysis of the geography of poverty (FY18); an urbanization review (FY18); an urbanization reform policy dialogue (FY19); and an updated Risk and Resilience Assessment (FY20). Where possible, key programmatic decisions will be timed in such a way as to avoid moments of potentially high tension. A Performance and Learning Review (PLR) in FY20 will also provide an opportunity to restructure the Program where needed. Macroeconomic risks 97. Macroeconomic risks are considered substantial. Guinea’s economic recovery is highly dependent on the global economy, ongoing institutional and financial constraints, policy slippages and the political environment. Another decline in global commodity prices or further growth slowdown in China and the advanced economies would have a significant impact on Guinea’s economy because it could delay or reduce mining investments in Guinea, as well as demand for its mineral resources. Furthermore, another surge in the US dollar could impair competitiveness and strain reserve buffers. In this context, Guinea’s debt dynamics, which currently appear to have a moderate risk of debt distress, might be affected. Domestic capacity and financial constraints in implementing infrastructure projects and delays in structural reforms could also weaken medium‐term growth prospects. Socio‐political tensions stemming from local or legislative elections and the run‐up to the 2018 legislative elections could also undermine near‐term growth and policy reforms. 98. However, Guinea benefits from a recent track record of successful stabilization and structural reforms. The IMF program and World Bank budget support operations will continue to coordinate their approaches and help mitigate these risks. The Extended Credit Facility agreed with the IMF in December 2017 increases confidence that macroeconomic risks will be contained. Under the CPF, measures to be taken involve budget support operations, including reinforcement of a sound macroeconomic framework, which will help to tackle key structural constraints to growth and mitigate these risks. If the macroeconomic situation deteriorates, WBG support would be modified as needed.
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WBG technical services will also continue to support the Government with capacity building in macroeconomic, budget and debt management. Technical design of projects or program 99. As noted in the Completion and Learning Review (CLR), there is room to improve both Bank and Government management of the Guinea portfolio. The Bank will work with the GoG to ensure that recommendations of the 2016 Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR), as well as the conclusions of periodic high‐level portfolio review meetings, are implemented. The World Bank will mitigate risks by operationalizing the Strategic Planning Offices (BSDs) through sector operations aimed at assisting ministries in the preparation of studies and design of projects. This will facilitate their inclusion into the public investment program and strengthen financing and implementation. Further information on IDA portfolio performance can be found in
Institutional sustainability and capacity for implementation 100. Guinea’s overall Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating in 2016 was 3.2, which is marginally higher than the average for IDA‐eligible Sub‐Saharan Africa (3.1). Overall, economic management is rated 3.5 in Guinea (compared with an average of 3.2 in Sub‐Saharan Africa). Public sector management and institutions are rated below the average for the region. This is particularly the case in the areas of transparency, accountability and corruption, as well as for policies related to environmental sustainability. Structural policies, particularly financial sector policies, also score below the regional average. Overall, institutional frailties pose a substantial risk to CPF implementation. The proposed adoption of a P4R approach in the education sector brings with it additional implementation risks — as well as opportunities — for scaling up results. As noted, sector‐specific support for the Strategic Planning Offices will also strengthen institutional capacity. 101. World Bank support measures will help to strengthen institutional capacity. Building on the PACV, local actors’ capacity to reinforce social cohesion and prevent and mitigate conflicts will be supported. This will include early warning and response systems built on community mobilization. Mechanisms will be tested under the ongoing PACV and will be mainstreamed across local institutions and communities under the planned Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance Project. Importantly, this will occur before the presidential elections scheduled for 2020 that may entail particular risks for tension and conflict. The Bank will also use an operational ASA to build on existing efforts to encourage community participation and citizen feedback at the rural commune level in support of decentralization. It will ensure that CE mechanisms are mainstreamed through the portfolio and consolidated into a country‐wide approach with clear milestones and expected results. Fiduciary risk 102. Fiduciary risk in Guinea is substantial. Although the overall fiduciary performance of the Bank’s portfolio is satisfactory, there are significant weaknesses in government systems that pose risks. The public procurement system in Guinea is generally cumbersome and slow, and many contracts are awarded through single‐source contracting, which affects the credibility and transparency of the system. A number of measures have been taken to address these weaknesses, including: (i) submission to the Parliament of an amendment to the 2012 Procurement Law to cancel the double‐review process for all externally‐financed projects; and (ii) the establishment of new monitoring rules to enforce the limit on single‐source contracting for public contracts. In addition, the Bank‐financed Governance AF Project (P157662) will support capacity‐building activities through seminars and training for key actors involved in the procurement system. These activities will include planning, execution, and contract management. Furthermore, TA will be provided for the creation of a professional cadre of procurement specialists. In addition, the Public Finance Management Reform Program supported by the DPOs will include measures to strengthen fiduciary systems.
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103. Financial management (FM) systems suffer from a lack of functioning information systems. The release of funds for public investment occurs from February to March, whereas the deadline for commitment of expenditures is fixed at the end of November. Therefore, the time available for project managers to commit funds for investment expenditures is limited to the period between March and November, meaning that the fiscal year is reduced by three to four months. This late start is further complicated by cumbersome enforcement procedures and duplication of controls in the administrative phase of capital public expenditure (commitments/validation/payment), where it takes more than 33 days for processing. These payment problems affect businesses that often have difficulty delivering projects because of delayed payment of invoices by the government. The World Bank is working with the GoG to address fiduciary risks through the provision of technical assistance and capacity building in economic governance.
104. The World Bank will mitigate fiduciary risks by tightening controls while, at the same time, avoiding overly complex arrangements. Tighter controls will include enforcing stricter implementation readiness, better balancing between the need to address cross‐sectoral or thematic issues, and realism/simplicity in project design and implementation arrangements. The Bank will also undertake fiduciary follow‐up activities in the field. Environmental and social risks 105. Guinea is among the lowest‐performing countries in terms of environmental performance. Alongside the application of its safeguard procedures, the WBG is working with the GoG (through the proposed CPF) to improve the management of natural resources and protection of sensitive areas. In the context of the new Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), the country will play an important leadership role. However, the country’s capacity to address environmental and social risks and impacts will need to be strengthened. More Sectoral Environmental and Social Strategic Assessments will be necessary to identify specific environmental and social challenges. The Ministry of Mines and Geology is already preparing a Mining Sectoral and Cumulative Impact Assessment. Similar impact assessments are anticipated for the agriculture and transport sectors. Stakeholders
106. FCV risks in Guinea include relatively weak support for state institutions, especially at the
level of the central government, as well as political conflict based on manipulation of ethnic
divisions. As emphasized throughout this CPF, Guinea is vulnerable to a number of FCV drivers,
including varying levels of support for the state among the country’s citizens and between/among
different social groups. As such, the WBG strategy is firmly grounded in a set of interventions that aim
to mitigate these risks. These cut across most objectives of the CPF (see Annex 6: Implementation
Note for the IDA 18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR) in Guinea. They include strengthening the
involvement of a key group of stakeholders, particularly the citizenry, in assessing the quality of
services provided (as measured by indicator 1.3) (a survey of perceptions of service quality).
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Annex 1: Results Monitoring Matrix (Guinea), CPF FY2018‐FY23
CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
CPF PILLAR ONE: FISCAL AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Vision Guinea 2040 objectives:
Promoting good governance for sustainable development
Sustainable management of natural resource capital
Issues addressed:
Weaknesses in the management of public finances and investment; procurement; public sector human resources; and state‐owned enterprises
Direct and indirect consequences of mining and hydropower energy
Gender gaps and the need to increase female agency
CPF Objective 1: Improved public fiscal and financial management SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere. SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and full and productive employment and decent work for all. Intervention logic: Weak governance was identified in the SCD as an overriding constraint to reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity. Strengthening local governance can also help reduce fragility. Improved governance and increased transparency are priorities for the Government of Guinea (GoG), as well as for those stakeholders who were consulted. The World Bank has a comparative advantage in this area, as illustrated in Figure 1. It will use the Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building Additional Financing Project (FY17) to build capacity and support governance and PFM reforms. This will complement macro reforms supported through the proposed series of DPOs.
Indicator 1.1 Average annual increase in real tax revenue collection Baseline: 0 Target (2018‐23): 5 percent Source: Ministry of Budget Indicator 1.2
Progress indicator:
Ongoing IDA ‐ Economic Governance, Technical Assistance
and Capacity Building (EGTACB) Project (P125890)
‐ Mineral Governance Support Project (P122916)
‐ Third Village Community Support Project (P156422)
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Share of SOEs that have published a full set of audited annual financial statements and audit reports Baseline (2017): 0 percent Target (2023): 60 percent Source: Directorate of State Property and Private Investment (DNEIP) website Note: refers to SOEs in which GoG has a majority stake. Publication to be for at least the previous two years at the time of the assessment. Statements to include notes. Publication to be posted on the DNEIP website.
30 percent of active SOEs have an annual audit report (by 2019)
Trust Funds Pipeline IDA ‐ Economic reforms DPO (FY2018‐22) ‐ West Africa Identification for Development
(ID4D) Regional Project (FY18) ‐ Improving Institutional Capacity and Local
Governance (FY19) ‐ Mining Governance Project – Additional
Finance (FY20) Trust Funds Other ASA ‐ Tax and benefit incidence review (FY18); ‐ Diagnostic of constraints and opportunities to
further mobilize domestic revenues and reduce illicit financial flows (FY19)F
‐ Analysis of geography of poverty (FY18) ‐ Guinea Urbanization Review (FY18) ‐ Guinea urbanization reforms policy dialogue
(FY19) ‐ TA on SOEs (FY19) ‐ Digital development policy dialogue (FY20) ‐ Distributional impact of spending (FY20)Y2scal
P
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
CPF Objective 2: Decentralization of service delivery, including health and education services, and better engagement of citizens SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere. SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and full and productive employment and decent work for all. Intervention logic: Decentralization is a core element of the strategy for improving service delivery in poorer rural communities. It is also one of the World Bank’s strategies for addressing the drivers of fragility. Decentralization was one of the top priorities for stakeholders consulted during the preparation of the CPF. The WBG has a strong presence in local development relative to other Development Partners (DPs) (Box 1). The Bank will work with the Government to scale up the highly successful PACV program through the Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance Project (FY19). It will also use ASA to build a systematic Citizen Engagement (CE) Roadmap to mainstream CE approaches across its portfolio.
Indicator 2.1 Proportion of frontline health and education facilities with increased financing for operational expenses Baseline (2017): 10 percent Target (2023): 94 percent (Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 42 percentage points) Source: Primary Health Services Improvement Project Indicator 2.2 Proportion of rural schools receiving their grants on time, and utilizing at least 60 percent of the amount in an effective manner Baseline (2017): 30 percent Target (2023): 95 percent (Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 35 percentage points) Source: Global Partnership for Education (GPE) Guinea Project Note: effectiveness defined as based on grant criteria
Progress indicator 2.1: 30 percent of facilities with increased financing by June 2019 Progress indicator 2.2: 50 percent of facilities receiving their grants on time and using them effectively by 2020.
Ongoing IDA ‐ Stepping Up Skills Project (P146474) ‐ Primary Health Services Improvement Project
(P147758) ‐ Regional Disease Surveillance Systems
Enhancement – REDISSE (P154807) ‐ Ebola Emergency Response Project (P152359) ‐ Third Village Community Support Project
(PACV) (P156422) Trust Funds ‐ GPE Guinea (P148127)
Other ASA
Pipeline IDA ‐ Health Service and Capacity Strengthening
Project (FY18) ‐ Improving Educational Quality and
Governance, Program‐for‐Results (P4R) (FY20)
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Indicator 2.3 Increased rate of satisfaction with the Government’s provision of basic services (health, basic education, and justice) Baseline (2017): 31 percent
Target (2023): 42 percent (for both men and
women)
(Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 5 percentage points) Source: Iterative Beneficiary Monitoring (IBM) surveys
Indicator 2.4
Number of communes participating in local development decisions in selected areas Baseline (2017): 0 Target (2023): 304 Source: Third Village Community Support Project
Progress indicator 2.4: Community‐based mechanisms for conflict early warning have been put in place and are functional in 8 districts on a pilot basis
‐ Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance FY19)
Trust Funds
Other ASA ‐ Human Development Public Expenditure
Review (including decentralization of services) (FY18)
‐ Policy dialogue on education financing, quality and early childhood development (ECD) (FY19)
‐ Assessing performance in the pharmaceutical sector (FY19)
‐ SDI/Service Delivery Indicators (Education) FY20
CPF Objective 3: Improved management of mining, natural resources and biodiversity SDG7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and full and productive employment and decent work for all. SDG 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification and halt and reverse land degradation and biodiversity loss. Intervention logic: Although the mainstream mining sector is largely financed through private investment, the Bank is well placed to
facilitate further investment and ensure its social, climate and environmental integrity by strengthening the mining governance framework through the Mining Governance Project – Additional Financing (FY20). Channelling mining profits into investments in local communities will help improve opportunities and reduce fragility. The Bank will also help build local capacity through the Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance Project (FY19). Protecting the environment is a priority for the GoG, which has committed in its Nationally‐Determined Contribution (NDC) to making the exploitation of mineral resources climate‐compatible, including the safeguarding of the country’s natural resource capital. The World Bank will reengage in the environment and biodiversity sectors, for example through the Climate Change and Biodiversity Capacity Building Project (FY19), drawing on Bank‐wide expertise to ensure that extraction activities do not crowd out biodiversity. This complements IFC’s work to establish the Moyen‐Bafing National Park.
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Indicator 3.1 Increased number of community projects financed by the Economic Development Fund (FODEL) Baseline (2017): 0 Target (2023): 60 (Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 30 percentage points) Source: Ministry of Mining and Geology Indicator 3.2 Country NDC objectives/actions related to natural resource management achieved Baseline (2017): 0 Target (2023): 1 Source: Climate Change and Biodiversity Capacity Building Project (FY20)
Progress Indicator 3.1.1 Percentage of environmental monitoring inspections of industrial mining activities carried out per year by Ministry of Environment (100% by 2022). Progress Indicator 3.2.1 Technical assistance provided to the Ministry of Environment to develop at least one multi‐sector local development plan including the Moyen Bafing biodiversity‐rich area by 2022
Ongoing IDA Mineral Governance Support Project
(P122916) Senegal River Basin Climate Change Resilience
Development Project (P131323) Third Village Community Support Project
(P156422) Trust Funds Other ASA IFC Advisory: Portfolio: Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée
(CBG) – Technical Assistance (TA) and Local Supplier Development Project (601428)
Guinea Investment Climate: Phase 2 Mining Linkages (601367)
Investment: CBG Expansion (34203) Trust Funds Other ASA Pipeline IDA Mining Governance Project – Additional
Finance (FY20)
41
CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Climate Change and Biodiversity Capacity Building Project (FY20)
Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance Project (FY19)
Trust Funds Other ASA Sectoral Environment and Social Strategic
Assessments (FY18) IFC Advisory: Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) – TA and
Advisory (601428) Local Economic Development Guinea
(602004) Investment: ‐ Sangaredi GAC (24374)
42
CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
CPF PILLAR TWO: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
Vision Guinea 2040 objectives
Sustainable and inclusive economic transformation
Inclusive development of human capital
Issues addressed
A shortage of management capabilities, tools and qualified personnel in the agriculture sector.
Poor health outcomes attributed to a weak public health system that is inaccessible, inequitable, and inefficient.
Low levels of human capital preventing individuals from accessing high quality jobs, limiting their earnings potential and contribution to economic growth.
CPF Objective 4: Improved basic education, especially in rural areas SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life‐long learning opportunities for all. Intervention logic: Strengthening basic education is a core aspect of Guinea’s development needs. It also contributes to reducing risks and building resilience. This a top priority for both the GoG and for the stakeholders consulted for this CPF. The World Bank has been a significant player in the basic education sector along with the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and a number of bilateral donors. It will support the GoG’s agenda in this area through the Improving Educational Quality and Governance Project, P4R (FY20).
Indicator 4.1 Percentage increase in the share of children benefiting from ECD services, including pre‐school and parental education Baseline (2017): 11 percent (including 5 percent girls and 6 percent rural) Target (2023): 27 percent (including 18 percent girls and 17 percent rural) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase:6 percentage points) Source: Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) Indicator 4.2 Share of primary schools with minimally adequate quality of service delivery
Progress indicator 4.1: Percentage increase in the share of children benefiting from ECD services at 15 percent by June 2019 Progress indicator 4.2:
Ongoing IDA Stepping Up Skills Project (P146474) Trust Funds ‐ GPE Guinea (P148127) Other ASA ‐ Guinea ‐ Education Impact Evaluation
Pipeline IDA ‐ Improving Educational Quality and
Governance Project, P4R (FY20)
43
CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Baseline (2017): 32 percent Target (2023): 60 percent (Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 11 percentage points) Source: Administrative and community check reports Note: service delivery to include textbook availability, school grant provided on time, teachers in class, and teachers trained in early grade reading pedagogy Indicator 4.3 Number of adults trained through adult literacy campaigns Baseline (2017): 61,000 (including 25,600 women) Target (2023): 143,800 (including 90,880 women) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase: 33,120) Source: Project reports Indicator 4.4 Reading ability of early grade students in targeted areas: Baseline (2017): 5 words per minute Target (2023): 20 words per minute Note: Reading ability will be measured through the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) protocol (sub‐test 8a) or through another methodology (for example, the Programme for the Analysis of Education Systems [PASEC]). Accordingly, indicator’s values may be changed at the Performance and Learning Review (PLR).
Percentage of primary schools with minimal quality at 40 percent by June 2019 Progress indicator 4.4: 9 words per minute in 2020
‐ Higher Education and Centers of Excellence (FY19)
Other ASA ‐ Human Development PER (including
decentralization of services) (FY18) ‐ Policy dialogue on education financing, quality
and ECD (FY19) ‐ SDI/Service Delivery Indicators (Education)
FY20
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
CPF Objective 6: Improved health and social protection, especially in rural areas SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well‐being at all ages. Intervention logic: Strengthening health systems, including disease surveillance, is a core priority for Guinea. It also contributes to reducing risks and building resilience. This a top priority for both the GoG and for those stakeholders consulted for the CPF. The World Bank has been a key partner in the health sector in Guinea for many years along with other donors, such as Japan and the United States (US). It will support the GoG through the Health Service and Capacity Strengthening Project (FY18), among others, as well as through the ongoing Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement – REDISSE (P154807).
Indicator 5.1 Share of children fully vaccinated Baseline (2017): 30 percent (including 47 percent girls) Target (2023): 36 percent (including 55 percent girls) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase: 3 percentage points) Source: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
Indicator 5.2 Share of deliveries assisted by trained health personnel Baseline (2017): 45 percent (31 percent in rural areas) Target (2023): 53 percent (39 percent in rural areas) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase: 4 percentage points) Source: Administrative data
Indicator 5.3 Number of beneficiaries of social safety net programs Baseline (2017): 54,557 (including 27,530 women)
Progress indicator 5.1: Percentage of fully vaccinated children increased to 32 percent by June 2019 Progress indicator 5.2: Percentage of assisted deliveries at 48 percent by June 2019 Progress Indicator 5.3 2019: 84,500 households registered
Ongoing IDA ‐ Productive Social Safety Nets Project (FY12) ‐ Primary Health Services Improvement Project
(FY15) ‐ Regional Disease Surveillance Systems
Enhancement – REDISSE (FY16) ‐ Ebola Emergency Response Project (FY15) Trust Funds ‐ Productive Social Safety Nets Project (PSSNP)
(Post‐Ebola Recovery Trust Fund) – (P123900) ‐ Post‐Ebola Support Project, Mamou
(P158579) ‐ Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA), Post‐
Ebola Human Resources for Health (HRH) Strengthening
Other ASA Pipeline IDA ‐ Health Service and Capacity Strengthening
Project (FY18) ‐ Social Protection System Project (FY20)
45
CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Target (2023): 91,099 (including 61,694 women) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase: 13,700) Source: Project Data Indicator 5.4 Number of households in unique registry with complete information Baseline (2017): 74,000 Target (2023): 99,200 (Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 9,450) Source: Project data
Trust Funds Other ASA: ‐ Assessing performance in the pharmaceutical
sector (FY19); ‐ Strengthening Social Protection in Guinea
(FY18) ‐ Human Development PER (including
decentralization of services) (FY18)
CPF PILLAR THREE: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Vision Guinea 2040 objectives
Non‐mining industrial diversification linked to regional agro‐value chains
Issues addressed
Low level of agriculture productivity due to inadequate technology, limited use of fertilizers and limited access to markets.
Weak development of value‐chain, and limited access to financial resources.
CPF Objective 6: Increased agricultural productivity and access to markets SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere. SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and full and productive employment and decent work for all. Intervention logic: Diversification of commercial agriculture will improve market access and reduce vulnerability to price shocks and rural‐urban migration, thereby decreasing fragility. Modernization of the agricultural sector was a priority for those stakeholders consulted for the CPF. The development of agro‐value chains is a priority for the GoG. The World Bank is one of the principal Development Partners in rural development in general (along with France, the US and others), and agriculture in particular. The Bank will provide IDA resources for an Integrated Agricultural Development Project to increase productivity and market transactions. Part of this support is envisaged to be on IBRD terms through the Scale‐Up Facility. In addition, the Bank will provide IBRD resources for an Agribusiness Development Project (Enclave Project) to support Guinea’s repositioning in the regional and global arena as an exporter of selected agricultural products.
46
CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Indicator 6.1 Percent increase in output per hectare of rice and maize by direct beneficiaries (by female direct beneficiaries) Baseline (2017): 0 (0) Target (2023): 18 percent (18 percent) Source: West Africa Agricultural Productivity. Program Adaptable Program Lending (APL) Indicator 6.2 Rural roads rehabilitated by year Baseline (2016): 189 kilometers (km) Target (2023): 728 km (Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 303) Source: Rural Mobility and Connectivity Project and Productive Social Safety Nets Project. Indicator 6.3 Area benefiting from diffusion of climate‐smart technologies Use of climate‐smart agriculture (CSA)
varieties (high‐yielding and drought/flood
resistant varieties according targeted areas)
Improved water management
Intensive Rice System (SRI), best cropping
practices
Baseline (2017): 0 hectares (ha) Target (2023): 72,000 ha Source: Integrated Agricultural Development Project
Progress Indicator 6.1 5 percent (FY19) 10 percent (June 2020) Progress Indicator 6.2 537 km by December 2019
Ongoing IDA ‐ Guinea National Agricultural Project
(P148114) ‐ West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program
APL (WAAPP‐1C) ‐ (P122065) ‐ West Africa Regional Fisheries Program SOP‐
C1 Mauritania and Guinea (P126773) ‐ Senegal River Basin Climate Change Resilience
Development Project (P131323) Trust Funds ‐ Rural Roads Emergency Improvement Project
(P156557) ‐ West Africa Regional Fisheries Program –
Additional Financing – TF (P156759)
Other ASA ‐ Agriculture Sector Review for
Competitiveness, Diversification and Growth Pipeline IDA ‐ Integrated Agriculture Project (FY18) and
Scale‐Up Facility (FY20) ‐ Enclave Agriculture Operation, including
agribusiness (FY19) ‐ Rural Roads Project (FY19) ‐ Improving Institutional Capacity and Local
Governance (FY19)
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Trust Funds
Other ASA ‐ Assessment of critical agribusiness export
transport corridors, including Conakry‐port linkage (FY19)
‐ Sectoral Environment and Social Strategic Assessments
IFC: ‐ Guinea Investment Climate Phase 2
Agriculture (602283)
CPF Objective 7: Better access to energy and water services through improved management of utilities SDG7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and full and productive employment and decent work for all. Intervention logic: Inadequate access to electricity and water are factors that contribute to public disillusionment with the GoG and can lead to social and political fragility. The World Bank is active in the energy sector (along with the European Union [EU] and the African Development Bank [AfDB]), taking a lead in strengthening the management of the energy utility, EDG. It will continue to provide support, for example, through the Power Sector Recovery Project Additional Financing (AF) Project (FY18). The Bank is also prominent in the water sector (along with the IDB and Japan) and has a comparative advantage in this area. IFC will build on policy reforms supported by the World Bank. Reduced risk levels enabled by MIGA will help to foster private led‐investments in hydro power generation and solar energy, for example, through public‐private partnership (PPP) solutions.
Indicator 7.1 Increased access to electricity in urban and in rural areas Baseline (2017): 18 percent (including 9.36 percent female) Target (2023): 36 percent (including 19 percent female) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase: 7 percentage points) Source: EDG Report and AGER (rural electrification agency) Report
Progress Indicator 7.1 Electricity losses per year down to 23 percent (June 2021)
Ongoing IDA ‐ Power Sector Recovery Project (P146696) ‐ Gambia River Basin Development
Organization (OMVG) Interconnection Project (P146830)
‐ Guinea Urban Water Project (P157782) ‐ Senegal River Basin Climate Change Resilience
Development Project (P131323) Trust Funds
48
CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Indicator 7.2 Number of people in urban areas already connected and provided with access to enhanced water supply services Baseline (2017): 0 Target (2023): 876,000 (Estimated RMR contribution to increase: 350,400) Source: Guinea Urban Water Project
Progress Indicator 7.2 20 km of network pipes rehabilitated under the project (June 2020)
Others ASA ‐ Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) Technical
Assistance for Guinea Pipeline IDA ‐ Power Sector Recovery Project AF (FY18) ‐ Electricity Access (FY19) ‐ Guinea‐Mali Interconnection (FY18) Trust Funds Other ASA ‐ Water, Hygiene, Sanitation (WASH) Poverty
Diagnostic (FY19) ‐ Water and Sanitation P4R Technical and
Fiduciary Assessment (FY20) ‐ Electricity costs and subsidies technical
assistance (TA) financed by Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) (FY18)
IFC Advisory: Guinea Water PPP (602345)
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
CPF Objective 8: Improved business environment SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere. SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and full and productive employment and decent work for all. Intervention logic: Improving the business environment is a core aspect of the country’s objective to achieve economic diversification. Local training for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) will also increase employment opportunities for young people. Improving the business environment was a priority for those stakeholders consulted as part of the CPF. The WBG has a comparative advantage in this area due to the multiple instruments at its disposal. It is one of the main DPs in Guinea, along with the EU and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), active in private sector development (PSD). It will support the business environment for SMEs. fr example, through the Micro and SME Promotion and Access to Finance Project (FY19). It will also undertake ASA to explore key urban development topics. IFC will work with banks, and will also support capacity building of the Regulator.
Indicator 8.1 Lower percentage of single source contracts in public investment projects Baseline (2017): 29 percent Target (2023): 18.2 percent Source: Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building (EGTACB) AF paper and reports Indicator 8.2 Improved access to finance for MSMEs Baseline (2016): 3 percent Target (2023): 11.2 percent (with women‐owned businesses increasing access at the same percentage rate as their male counterparts) Source: World Bank Enterprise Survey
Progress indicator:
Procurement Information Management system (SIGMAP) in place (December 2020)
Ongoing IDA ‐ Economic Governance, Technical Assistance
and Capacity Building Project (P125890) Trust Funds Other ASA ‐ Guinea #C015 Strengthening Microfinance
and Financial Inclusion Pipeline IDA ‐ Micro and SME Promotion and Access to
Finance (FY19) Trust Funds Other ASA ‐ Guinea Urbanization Review (FY18) IFC
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Investment Portfolio: ‐ Banque Internationale pour le Commerce et
l’Industrie de la Guinée (BICIGUI), Risk‐Sharing Facility (RSF) (33502)
‐ Orabank Guinee (34434 ‐ Afriland Guinea (36351) ‐ EcoBank Guinea SME, RSF (36624) Advisory: Guinea Leasing: (602324)
CPF Objective 9: Maximize access to job opportunities, especially for young people SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere. SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and full and productive employment and decent work for all. Intervention logic: Youth unemployment is a key factor driving fragility in Guinea. IDA is the leading DP in the area of youth employment in Guinea. It will seek to maximize jobs created by World Bank projects, for example, through the Social Protection System Project (FY20).
Indicator 9.1 Number of beneficiaries (aged 25 years or over) of job opportunities created by selected World Bank projects Baseline (2017): 1,030,530 (of which 533,280 are women) Target (2023): 2,222,372 (of which 1,196,874 are women) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase: 670,411) Source: Project Data
Progress Indicator 9.1 December 2019: 1,787,580 days
Ongoing IDA ‐ Productive Social Safety Nets Project (FY12) ‐ West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program
APL (WAAPP‐1C) ‐ (FY11) ‐ West Africa Regional Fisheries Program SOP‐
C1 ‐ Mauritania and Guinea (FY15) ‐ Stepping Up Skills Project (FY15) Trust funds ‐ Productive Social Safety Nets Project (PSSNP)
(Post‐Ebola Recovery TF) – (P123900) ‐ West Africa Regional Fisheries Program –
Additional Financing – TF (P156759)
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CPF Indicators Progress Indicators Bank Engagement
Indicator 9.2 Number of young people (aged 15‐24 years old) benefiting from job opportunities created by selected World Bank projects Baseline (2017): 244,879 (of which 126,720 women) Target (2023): 528,089 (of which 284,406 women) (Estimated RMR contribution to overall increase: 159,306) Source: Project Data
Pipeline IDA ‐ Social Protection System Project (FY20) ‐ Micro and SME Promotion and Access to
Finance (FY19) ‐ Integrated Agriculture Project (FY18) and
Scale‐Up Facility (FY20) ‐ Enclave Agriculture Operation, including
agribusiness (FY19) ‐ Rural Roads Project (FY19). Trust Funds Other ASA ‐ Strengthening Social Protection in Guinea
(FY18) ‐ Assessment of critical agribusiness export
transport corridors, including Conakry‐port linkage (FY19)
‐ Poverty Assessment (FY20)
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Annex 2: Completion and Learning Review of the FY14‐FY17 Country Partnership Strategy
I. INTRODUCTION
1. This Completion and Learning Review (CLR) evaluates the performance of the joint International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)/International Finance Corporation (IFC)/Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Guinea FY14‐FY17. The CLR assesses the achievement of CPS program outcomes and the World Bank Group’s own performance before discussing the alignment of the CPS with the World Bank Group’s Corporate Goals. The overall aim of the CLR is to present lessons from implementation that might inform the next Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Guinea, as well as to identify those with broader applicability. 2. The CPS was discussed by the World Bank’s Board of Directors on September 13, 2013. The Bank’s program in Guinea was relatively new at the time, following a reengagement that took place in 2011. Most of the portfolio was restructured and re‐evaluated at the time of reengagement. The CPS was grounded in the Government’s strategy and aimed to support Guinea in: (i) improving governance and service delivery; (ii) stimulating growth and economic diversification; and (iii) strengthening human capital. The program of activities included support for each pillar and contained a mix of ongoing and new operations. These included a mix of Advisory Services and Analytics (ASAs), Development Policy Loans (DPLs), and Investment Project Financings (IPFs), as well as International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) interventions.
3. The Performance and Learning Review (97162‐GN; July 18, 2015) affirmed the broad relevance of the country strategy. The document was explicitly intended to be flexible and responsive to emerging priorities. Although the three pillars of the CPS remained unchanged, the PLR took the opportunity to reformulate some of the CPS objectives. It changed the results framework to better align several indicators with the Bank’s activities in Guinea during the implementation period that encompassed the urgent need for assistance in the health sector during the Ebola epidemic.
4. The WBG program was reoriented to activities that focused more directly on the immediate impacts of the Ebola epidemic — but without losing sight of the country’s long‐term strategic goals and objectives. The PLR confirmed that the delivery of the program in Guinea remained on track, despite emerging challenges. The PLR showed that the World Bank’s interventions in Guinea were continuing to contribute to the country’s long‐term strategic objectives in mining, energy, agriculture, PFM and the human development sectors. The World Bank’s portfolio grew quickly due to several emergency operations focused on dealing with the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). However, there was no need to extend the CPS implementation period, with the focus remaining instead on implementation of ongoing activities.
5. The overall CPF Outcome Rating is assessed as “Moderately Satisfactory”, and World Bank Group performance is rated as “Good”. The CPF Outcome Rating is based on the fact that while taking into account the challenges Guinea faced during the Ebola epidemic, the CPF program was still able to help the country achieve or mostly achieve a majority of the CPF objectives identified in the results framework, and as revised during the PLR. The discussion below assesses individual results based on interventions that supported each Strategic Area of Engagement. World Bank Group (WBG) performance is rated as good based on the quality of the design and flexible implementation of the Program, as well as the existence of a sound pipeline of activity. See Figure A2.1.
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Figure A2.1: Summary of Program Outcomes
Note: MEPUA = Ministry of National Education and Literacy (Ministère de l’Enseignement Pré Universitaire et de l’Alphabétisation)
Strategic Area of Engagement 1: Improving Governance – Moderately Satisfactory 6. The Achievement of objectives outlined under the First Strategic Area of Engagement of the CPS is assessed as “Moderately Satisfactory”. Support for this area of engagement was done through three areas of focus: the mineral sector, Public Financial Management (PFM)/Human Resources (HR)/service delivery, and budget reform (with aspects of citizen monitoring). Performance on meeting the first and second indicators was achieved and partially achieved, respectively, whereas performance on meeting the targets of the third indicator is rated as “mostly achieved”, arriving at the overall composite rating of “moderately unsatisfactory” for the Pillar. 1.1 Improved capacity and stronger governance systems of key institutions responsible for managing
the mineral sector: Achieved. 7. The objectives under this results area are rated as “Achieved.” This results area was supported by the Mineral Governance Project, as well as Technical Assistance (TA) in Guinea Mining Ancillary Infrastructure, the Legal and Regulatory Institutional Reforms, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). The Mineral Governance Project continued to perform well and the decree clarifying the relationship between the Guinean Society of Mining Heritage (SOGUIPAMI) and the Ministry of Mines and other entities was passed, in alignment with one of the indicators. Guinea continued to produce EITI reports in line with the country’s commitment to transparency and openness with regard to its extractive revenues. The latest EITI report for Guinea covered Calendar Year (CY) 2014 and was produced in December 2016. Areas of improvement include: (i) further enhancement of transparency in mining contract management, taxes and revenues collection, as well as an effective use of the findings and recommendations of EITI reports to strengthen the discussions with all stakeholders to further improve
Cluster 1: Improving Governance Cluster 2: Stimulating Growth and Economic Diversification
Cluster 3: Supporting Human Development
Outcome 3.1: Improve the utilization of maternal, child health and nutrition services at the primary level of care in target regions
Outcome 1.1: Improved capacity and stronger governance systems of key institutions for managing the mineral sector
= Achieved = Not Achieved
Outcome 1.2: Re‐established and strengthened basic systems and practices to improve PFM and HR management and service delivery
Outcome 1.3: Budget reform introduced including citizen monitoring
Outcome 2.1: Improved technical and commercial performance of the national power utility
Outcome 2.2: Stronger local level planning of agricultural investment and advisory services
Outcome 2.3: Increase the geographic reach of broadband networks and reduce the costs of communications services in West Africa
Outcome 2.4: Improved selected processes of Guinea’s investment climate and improved financial systems
Outcome 2.5 Improved institutional framework to broaden investment opportunities
Outcome 2.6 Enhanced reginal integration and improved regulation of transport sub‐sectors
Outcome 2.7 Stronger governance and management of targeted fisheries and improved handling of landed fish at selected sites
Outcome 3.2: Improved access and learning in basic education for under‐served populations in project areas and strengthened capacity in evidence‐based management for MEPUA
Outcome 3.3: Contribute in the short term to the control of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and increase availability of selected essential health services, and mitigate the socio‐economic impact of EVD
Outcome 3.4: Improved employability and employment outcomes of Guinean youth in targeted skills programs
= Mostly Achieved = Partially Achieved
Likely overall program rating: moderately satisfactory
Moderately satisfactory Moderately satisfactory Moderately satisfactory
Outcome 3.5: Established functional social safety net system reaching those below the poverty line
= Not VerifiedNV
N
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the sector’s performances; and (ii) ensuring a more sustainable use of the country’s natural resources with some multi‐sectoral approaches, as and when possible.
1.2 Re‐established and strengthened basic systems and practices to improve public financial
management and human resource management, as well as service delivery: Partially Achieved. 8. The objectives under this results area are rated as “Partially Achieved.” Support for the roll‐out of a HR system for the Guinean Civil Service was completed with the support of TA — although the roll‐out itself was not fully implemented during the CPS period. Discrepancies between the civil service database and the payroll were reduced, in alignment with the CPS objectives. However, progress on increasing public procurement contracts procured through open competition was slower than anticipated. 1.3 Budget reform introduced including citizen monitoring: Mostly Achieved. 9. The objectives under the budget reform and citizen monitoring results area are rated as “Mostly Achieved.” Most of the activities supporting this results area were conducted under the Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building (EGTACB) Investment Project Financing (IPF) (P125890). The operation focused on re‐establishing and strengthening basic systems and practices to improve the management of public financial and human resources in Guinea. An AF was recently processed to build on the good progress achieved during EGTACB implementation. Furthermore, citizen monitoring aspects of the results area were introduced and supported through a Public‐Sector Governance and Accountability State and Peace‐Building Fund (SPF) that closed in the first quarter of FY16. The SPF worked closely with civil society to gradually build public sector transparency. It had some positive results in terms of fostering the Government’s leadership and strategic capacity for leading critical reforms in PFM, Human Resource Management (HRM) and service delivery by engaging civil society in the process. The main challenge remains the weak internal coordination and diffuse leadership of the Government for effectively scaling up these reforms and activities. Strategic Area of Engagement 2: Stimulating Growth and Economic Diversification – Moderately Satisfactory. 10. The achievement of objectives outlined under the Second Strategic Area of Engagement of the CPS is assessed as “Moderately Satisfactory”. Support for this area of engagement was implemented through a number of infrastructure sectors, and achievements included: increased electricity generation; improved agricultural productivity; improved ICT connectivity; better management and regulation of the transport sector; and improved oversight of the fisheries sector. Additionally, this area of engagement focused on enhancing private sector dialogue, increasing investment opportunities, and making improvements in Guinea’s overall private sector climate. 2.1 Improved technical and commercial performance of the national utility: Mostly Achieved. 11. The objectives under area 2.1 are rated as “Mostly Achieved”. Some progress was made against most aspects of this important sub‐theme of the CPS, but implementation has been slow. There have been a number of achievements. First, the rehabilitation of energy networks has taken place around Conakry. Second, there have been improvements in the efficiency of the energy sector in Guinea, along with the better technical and commercial performance of the public power utility (EDG), which started under the Veolia Management contract. Third, regional energy interconnector linkages have been enhanced. Fourth,
55
support has been provided to the Guinean authorities in their dialogue with other actors active in the energy sector, namely the Government of China. Implementation of the Electricity Sector Efficiency Improvement Project (P077317) and the Power Sector Recovery Project (P146696) supported progress in this sub‐theme. With some delay, both projects have performed broadly well against their objectives. The performance of the Gambia River Basin Development Organization (OMVG) Interconnector Project (P146830) has been satisfactory in enabling electricity trade between Gambia, Guinea, Guinea‐Bissau and Senegal. It too is progressing well against its intended objectives. The successful implementation of the project is impressive given the low capacity and the challenges in coordinating among sector bodies in the four countries. 2.2 Stronger local level planning of agricultural investment and advisory services: Mostly Achieved. 12. The objective of the sub‐theme 2.2 is rated as “Mostly Achieved.” This area of results focused on the agriculture sector, including increased sector investment and technical assistance. Key operations supporting this sub‐objective included the Guinea Agriculture Sector Support Project (P148114), the Third Village Communities Support Project (P156422), and the Agriculture Productivity and Food Security Project. Implementation of the Guinea Agriculture Sector Support Project, which focuses on strengthening the capacity of sector institutions to implement the national Food Security and Agriculture Plan, has been rated as MS for most of the project life. The Third Village Communities Support Program seeks to strengthen the local government financing system and improve local service delivery in rural communities. The operation also works to improve Guinea’s ability to respond to crisis and emergency situations at the local level. The operation has been successful in engaging rural communities and boosting their capacity. Similarly, the participation of Guinea under the West‐Africa Agriculture Productivity Project (WAAPP), with support from a Spanish Trust Fund, has generated strong results on the ground in terms of increased productivity (rice, and so on) and improved research capacity. Additional Financing (US$23 million) was approved in FY17 to build on and scale‐up these results. 2.3 Increase the geographical reach of broadband networks and reduce the costs of communication services in West Africa: Achieved. 13. Progress toward the objectives of sub‐theme 2.3 is rated as “Achieved.” This area of results was supported by the West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure Project (WARCIP) P122402. The operation sought to contribute to increasing the geographical reach of broadband networks, and to reducing the costs of communications services in Guinea, as well as in Burkina Faso and The Gambia. Despite some coordination issues among the three partners, the Guinean sub‐project has successfully delivered its key results, leading to quite an impressive transformation of the telecommunications sector (with 4 to 5 private operators, a functional regulator and cost reductions). It has since closed with a Satisfactory rating for the achievement of the Project Development Objective (PDO). 14. During the CPS period, MIGA maintained a guarantee in the telecommunications sector. The aims of the project were to: (i) support increased competition in the sector, thereby leading to reduced costs and increased choice for consumers; and (ii) support increased network coverage, thereby facilitating increased access to communications services for consumers. The guarantee expired on April 30, 2018. MiGA does not have any current exposure in Guinea.
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2.4 Improved selected processes of Guinea’s investment climate and improved financial systems Partially Achieved. 15. The results area 2.4 is rated as “Partially Achieved”. The key operation supporting Guinea’s investment climate and financial systems improvement was the MSME Support Project (P128443), which has seen uneven progress. The operation, which seeks to support the development of MSMEs in various value chains and investment climate‐related processes in Guinea was rated as “MU” for over a year and has now been flagged for “Soft MS” rating. 16. Although the MSME Support Project has achieved only uneven progress, it is important to highlight that the project has a relatively satisfactory outcome in its components related to building the capacity of the Private Investment Promotion Agency (APIP), improving access to financing through a new Credit Information System, and the development of a new payment system at the Central Bank of Guinea. In fact, disbursements are expected to reach 100 percent by the end of the project for both sub‐components, and expected outcomes are likely to be met.
17. The project has also helped put in place a framework which provides a good start for interaction between the two sides involved in private sector development. The Private Sector [Concertation] Platform and the Public Committee for Reforms have now been put into place. The project experienced delays, however, with respect to the provision of direct support to SMEs through the implementation of SME support centers. Physical locations for these centers were not provided by the government, and the temporary pilot center was only launched in February 2016 and is barely operational.
18. The achievement of the objectives under area 2.4 is also reflected through the successful adoption of the leasing law in February 2012, followed by the launch of the leasing program in June 2013. The objective of this IFC program was to promote the leasing market as an alternative financing solution in Guinea. Activities started with two financial institutions and five local Business Edge service providers for leasing techniques.
19. Finally, this results area was also supported by activities under IFC’s Mining Advisory Programs. These activities promoted local supplier development solutions around IFC mining projects. They contributed positively to the development of the domestic private sector by providing technical assistance to the mining sector and capacity building to SMEs to maximize their participation in the mining supply chains. Regarding the Simandou Project, this local supplier program has built the capacity of more than 400 local suppliers, trained approximately 900 SMEs and over 3,000 participants through IFC Business Edge and other activities. It has also supported the Simandou Employee Volunteer Departure Plan and trained more than 700 local employees.
2.5 Improved institutional framework to broaden investment opportunities: Not Achieved. 20. Progress toward 2.5 is rated “Not Achieved”. A key project supporting this results area is the Guinea Business Regulation Project, which helped to create an enabling and more transparent regulatory environment that makes it easier and less costly for businesses (particularly SMEs) to formally start, operate and grow. The Project was instrumental in strengthening the institutional capacity of the One‐Stop Shop (Guichet Unique) for Business Registration which functions under the Agency for the Investment Promotion. The project supported the Government’s draft and developed a revised Investment Code, which was adopted by the Parliament in May 2015. It also contributed toward the
57
development of a local Content Policy. It assisted in consolidating various Finance Bills into a consolidated Tax Code, and streamlined procedures relating to tax registration certification (NIF reform) and the taxpayer appeal mechanism. Finally, it aided in reforming the value‐added tax (VAT) refund agenda with the IMF and created a communications strategy for the Tax Administration. In May 2015, the Parliament adopted the revised Investment Code. However, the outcomes and impacts generated by the project do not fully align with the rather ambitious objective of the project to maximize the benefit of strategic investments, diversify the economy, and create sustainable opportunities for the local economy and the broader population. 21. Partial achievement of some of the objectives under the area 2.5 is reflected through the adoption of a comprehensive PPP law in June 2017. This was led by IFC and PPIAF, with the support of other development partners such as AfDB and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). In parallel, IFC advised the GoG on private sector participation in the electricity distribution sector. Through this process, Veolia was selected to operate EDG through a four‐year, performance‐based management contract funded through the Power Sector Recovery Project (P146696). Discussions are ongoing to replicate the same successful model for the country’s national water company, SEG. 2.6 Increased regional integration and improved regulation of transport sub‐sectors: Achieved. 22. Progress toward the results area 2.6 is rated as “Achieved.” The key operation supporting this results area was the West and Central Africa Air Transport Project (P083751), which was a regional operation supporting civil aviation in Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali. For Guinea, the PDO of the Regional Operation was to support the country in strengthening the institutional capacity of the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), as well as the Conakry International Airport with International Civil Aviation Organization safety and security standards. The key target associated with results area 2.6 was revising and approving the Civil Aviation Code by FY14. This target was achieved. The regional integration agenda also benefited from support in other areas, such as power interconnection, water resource management. However, there is room to scale up related opportunities to accelerate the country’s economic growth. 2.7 Stronger governance and management of targeted fisheries and improved handling of landed fish at selected sites: Partially Achieved.
23. Progress toward this sub‐objective, which focuses on improvements in governance and management of the fisheries sector, is rated as “Partially Achieved.” Support for this sub‐objective was provided mostly through the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (P126773) that focused on Guinea, as well as Mauritania. The objective of the first phase of the multi‐phase program is fully aligned with the formulation of the sub‐objective. The project has been performing well and has helped Guinea’s fisheries sector gain access to international markets. Strategic Area of Engagement 3: Supporting Human Development – Moderately Satisfactory. 24. The objectives of the third Strategic Area of Engagement of the CPS focused on improving delivery of social services, promoting youth employment and building resilience among the most vulnerable. WBG support focused on health and education service delivery, improving skills for job creation, and establishing a functional social safety net system reaching those living below the poverty line. Following the Ebola epidemic response, building resilience and strengthening budget management for Ebola‐related spending were added to the pillar’s objectives. Overall, progress toward the achievement of this Strategic
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Area of Engagement is rated as “Moderately Satisfactory” due to uneven progress in the Human Development sectors and non‐validation of two outcomes. 3.1 Improve the utilization of maternal, child health and nutrition services at the primary level of care in target regions – Mostly Achieved. 25. The results area 3.1 is rated as “Mostly Achieved”. At the time of the CPS design, there were several operations supporting this sub‐objective, including: the Guinea Community Service Delivery Strengthening Project, and the Health Sector Strengthening Project (P065126). The Health Sector Strengthening Project that closed in FY14 was rated as Unsatisfactory for most of its implementation period. Shortly after the project closed, the health sector was severely stressed during the Ebola epidemic. The Bank’s Guinea portfolio was then modified to include several emergency budget support and targeted Investment Project Financings (IPFs)/Trust Funds TFs). The Ebola Recovery and Reconstruction Trust Fund (US$5m) was added to the portfolio as part of the Ebola epidemic response. The results area 3.1 is rated as “Mostly Achieved” since two new projects have been recently put in place to strengthen Reproductive, Maternal, New born, and Child Health (RMNCH) service delivery at the community and primary levels in poor geographic areas (Faranah, Labe and Mamou). Implementation has been broadly on track with the expected results. 3.2 Improved access and learning in basic education for underserved populations in project areas, and strengthened capacity in evidence‐based management in the Ministry of National Education and Literacy (MEPUA) – Not Verified. 26. The results area 3.2 focused on basic education improvements in Guinea. The achievement of results is rated as “Not Validated.” There were several interventions that supported achievement of results under 3.2, ranging from ASAs to IPFs. The Human Development Public Expenditure Review (PER) and two policy notes were successfully completed and presented solid sector analyses. Despite some difficulties obtaining the latest sector data (data from 2012 was used for the note), the PER has been useful in identifying the key education sector needs. However, translating the PER recommendations into policy action has not had the anticipated impact. Other interventions supporting the results area 3.2 included the Education for All Fast‐Track Initiative (FTI) (FY02/FY14) (P111470), which faced some delays, and the Stepping Up Skills IPF (P146474) that was hindered by weak implementation capacities. The Stepping Up Skills seeks to boost the employability of Guinean youth in targeted skills programs. As such, its focus is not on basic education, the results area that 3.2 prioritizes. The Education for All FTI seeks to enhance equitable access and improve the quality of basic education. It also supports improvements in decentralized education system management. It is therefore more closely aligned with the focus of results area 3.2. However, the project saw uneven results despite multiple restructurings and was rated “MS” in the Implementation Completion and Results (ICR) Report for its overall outcome rating.
3.3 Contribute in the short term to the control of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak, increases the availability of selected essential health services, and mitigate the socio‐economic impact of EVD – Achieved. 27. The results area 3.3 was added to the CPS results matrix at the time of the PLR, following the adjustment of the portfolio after the EVD. It is rated as “Achieved.” The results area is supported by several operations that were added to the Guinea portfolio as part of the Bank’s support to the Government of Guinea to fight the EVD. The operations supporting this results area were: Ebola Emergency Response Project and Additional Financing (P152359) and the Emergency Macroeconomic and
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Fiscal Support Operation DPL (P151794). The Bank’s response and the level of cooperation with the Government of Guinea were successful, and the operations delivered on their planned results. The response to the EVD was done in a quick and efficient manner, without compromising on quality. It reflected the Bank’s high level of responsiveness and its flexibility in restructuring ongoing operations, thereby allocating additional funding to reflect emergency needs in a fragile environment. 3.4 Improved employability and employment outcomes of Guinean youth in targeted skills programs – Not Achieved. 28. This sub‐objective is rated as “Not Achieved”. The results area was mostly supported by the US$20m Stepping Up Skills IPF (P146474). The project has been under implementation for over two years, but progress has been modest with respect to intermediate process indicators. The first call for sub‐project proposals for financing through the Competitive Fund resulted in the Project Secretariat receiving 73 Concepts Notes. A rigorous evaluation of the Notes based on agreed criteria between the government and the World Bank culminated in the shortlisting of 14 sub‐projects from the private sector and public training institutions, and 3 sub‐projects from each of the Ministries of TVET, Youth, and Higher Education. The first 6 sub‐projects have been approved, and financing agreements have been signed. The first tranche disbursements are underway. The end‐project target is for at least 80 percent of the sub‐projects to have developed market‐relevant programs. About 2,600 have been shortlisted to receive training and be placed in internships through the Education to Employment program. In order to place shortlisted youth in internships and/or training programs, more than 40 institutions have been identified. Negotiations have resulted in the first batch of youth (48 females and 69 males from a total of 117 were selected) being awarded vouchers to receive training as interns in 11 sectors (administration, applied informatics, mathematics, banking and finance, energy, mechanical engineering, law, biochemistry, hotel management, accounting, civil engineering, logistics, and commerce). Overall, the project has shown moderate progress in meeting its objectives and is on the path to achieving the PDO. 3.5 Established functional social safety net system reaching those below the poverty line – Mostly Achieved. 29. The results area 3.5 is rated as “Mostly Achieved.” The focus of this sub‐objective was on improvements in the safety net system in Guinea. Most of the activities supporting achievement of this results area were met through work under the Productive Social Safety Net Project and the Peace‐Building Fund TF (P123900). Despite initial good performance of the Productive Social Safety Net Project and a high disbursement ratio, there were problems with achieving a uniform vision for social safety net reform. A strategy and policy framework has recently been endorsed by the authorities. However, additional efforts are required to establish a functional safety net system. The operation did, however, deliver approximately 199 micro‐projects, with the majority focusing on sanitation. There are issues with sustainability in the operational results. Preparation of additional financing is underway. II. WORLD BANK GROUP PERFORMANCE
30. The World Bank Group performance is rated as Good based on the initial CPS design, as well as on the flexible CPS provisions for addressing the emergency Ebola epidemic. This demonstrated an impressive ability by the team to adapt to changing circumstances and priorities, without losing sight of Guinea’s long‐term needs and strategic vision. Throughout CPS implementation, the Bank team maintained a close dialogue with the Guinean authorities and ensured close alignment with the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) III, as well as a high level of ownership.
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31. The original design of the CPS was ambitious, but pragmatic. It reflected the Government’s priorities as outlined in the PSRP III. The Bank’s program under the CPS reflected a full range of interventions that were appropriately selected for the key areas of focus and were well distributed among the three thematic areas.
32. In terms of trade‐offs between development impact and risk, the CPS was quite selective and focused. It ensured that the program was ambitious, while also maintaining sound design and a good implementation record. A focus on portfolio quality throughout the CPS implementation period ensured that the Bank’s portfolio in Guinea was healthy, with a good level of disbursement. A robust set of risk mitigation measures were proposed at the CPS design stage and were later reviewed at the PLR stage.
33. The results framework that was put in place during CPS approval was well designed, if somewhat ambitious. It also reflected the priorities of the full CPS program. It was reviewed and revised at the PLR stage to fully reflect the additional priorities that arose during the Ebola crisis. This demonstrated the team’s careful focus on monitoring and evaluation while ensuring a continued strong strategic alignment of the program with the CPS.
34. The set of interventions that were put in place during the CPS implementation period form a sound platform for future World Bank work and cooperation with the country’s authorities. The PLR that was conducted in 2015 was impressive and reflected the Bank’s commitment to ensuring portfolio quality and a strategic focus on interventions. The PLR introduced the necessary mid‐course update to the results framework. It provided an important reflection on the overall program and helped the Bank to respond to the emergency Ebola crisis. This was another determinant of the Bank’s good overall performance during the CPS implementation period. III. ALIGNMENT WITH CORPORATE GOALS
35. There was strong alignment with the WBG Corporate Goals of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. The CPS maintained a strong focus on reducing poverty and addressing the needs of the poorest segments of the population through: improved service delivery; a focus on material, child health and nutrition services for the neediest; an improved cash transfer program; and a strong focus on education. Furthermore, during the Ebola epidemic, the World Bank was quick to restructure and refocus the program to address the needs of those affected by the health crisis. The focus on shared prosperity was achieved in CPS implementation through improved management of mineral wealth and adherence to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). This empowered the population to better understand financial flows generated by the extractives. IV. MAIN LESSONS
36. During the CPS implementation period, the following emerged as key lessons:
Maintaining flexibility in a fragile context is a key lesson that emerged during the CPS implementation period. The CPS implementation was strongly impacted by the Ebola epidemic, leading to a refocusing of WBG funding to address the health crisis. Regular operations were temporarily put on hold as the Bank engaged in working with donor partners, as well as national and regional authorities in managing the impacts of the Ebola epidemic. Following the temporary disruption, the Bank was able to return
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to implementation of the regularly planned program. The Bank was able to quickly adjust to accommodate additional needs. Maintaining such flexibility in a fragile context will be key to the future success of World Bank support for Guinea, as well as other fragile countries.
The WBG can bring together weak and fractured ministries to improve coordination and outcomes. For example, with regard to strengthening basic systems to improve public financial and human resource management and service delivery, a fragmentation of power and lack of coordination between ministries negatively affected project performance. The WBG has worked to improve collaboration through the Additional Financing EGTACB and a Steering Committee. Increased coordination can further improve outcomes.
To sustain development outcomes, the WBG must focus on the importance of strengthening citizen engagement, local capacity and local planning processes in its operations. For example, it has been noted that citizen engagement remains weak with regard to introducing budget reform and citizen monitoring. Therefore, it will be important to strengthen this engagement. Similarly, it will also be necessary to strengthen citizen engagement with regard to ensuring stronger local level planning of agricultural investment and advisory services. Working with the Village Community Support Project, many Communes across the country have gained the capacity to develop and implement Annual Investment Plans (AIPs). In future, it will be important to sustain this effort by strengthening citizen engagement in local planning processes, and building trust between the government/state and its citizenry.
The regulatory framework for public investment in the FY18‐FY23 CPF will need to be strengthened. A key macroeconomic objective of the Government of Guinea during the FY14‐FY17 CPF was to maintain a tight fiscal policy stance while enabling increased private investment. This reflected the need to moderate aggregate demand and reduce inflation, as well as the need to continue to improve the central bank’s international reserves, while maintaining growth. Maintaining fiscal balance in turn required tighter prioritization of investment projects. To this end, the Government had identified a list of non‐priority projects to cut or postpone to help close a projected financing gap in 2016 of 1.5 percent of GDP. Although some progress was made in improving the selection of priority projects, there was much less progress in the area of establishing a regulatory framework conducive to public‐private partnership (PPP) investment.
To focus more directly on poverty reduction and spatial inequality, the World Bank needs to target its support in those geographic areas where poverty is most pronounced. In terms of improving the delivery of maternal, child health and nutrition services at the primary level of care, these should be focused in the more remote parts of Guinea. Efforts should be made to prioritize strengthening the allocative efficiency of health financing, including sufficient funding. Support is also required to strengthen the technical and monitoring capacity of authorities and implementers at the decentralized level. In addition, many of the current health indicators can be improved by implementing cost effective and simple interventions related to Reproductive, Maternal, New born and Child Health (RMNCH) at the primary level of the health system (that is, the district level and below).
Innovations and reforms should be implemented through a pilot project and scaled up once proven successful. For example, in addressing the objective to improve financial systems and processes, the opening of three SME technical centers has since been deemed too ambitious. It would have
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benefitted from a pilot. However, in addressing the objective to improve access to basic education for underserved populations, many successful pilots should now be scaled up. These include: the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) pilot, which should be implemented in all primary schools with weak learning outcomes; the strengthening of capacity and funding of deconcentrated levels of Ministry of National Education and Literacy (MEPUA); and the strengthening of MEPUA’s planning, budgeting and implementation capacity.
Good analysis of the country’s context and project/reform readiness is essential for setting sensible results indicators. In retrospect, some of the indicators were too ambitious considering the country’s weak institutional capacity and underlying fragility, as well as its unresolved implementation readiness issues. The team has started to better factor this into designing new operations and reforms, as illustrated by the phased approach for putting in place the Management Service Contract for SEG (the Water Utility Company), building on EDG’s experience. In this context, greater attention to this issue should be taken in the new CPF.
Joint Bank‐Government portfolio reviews help in improving implementation. A key lesson is that regular, joint portfolio reviews are helpful in boosting implementation capacity and information‐sharing among Guinean counterparts. These events offer an opportunity to understand common problems that affect the portfolio. They also offer various PIUs the chance to exchange information with one other. Following the 2016 Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR), for example, portfolio performance improved, and a concrete action plan was later developed and followed. The joint portfolio reviews also offer an opportunity to raise the level of Government ownership and buy‐in, thereby helping to expedite corrective actions and improve country portfolio proactivity.
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Table 1: Summary of CPS Program Self‐Evaluation FY14‐FY17
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
STRATEGIC CLUSTER 1: IMPROVING GOVERNANCE
MODERATELY SATISFACTORY
Low‐income country (Population: 10.3 million) Baseline (2012) GDP per Capita: US$487; Percent Poor: 55.2 percent
1.1 Improved capacity and stronger governance systems of key Institutions for managing the mineral sector ACHIEVED
A new decree is
signed which aligns
the structure of the
Guinean Society of
Mining Heritage
(SOGUIPAMI) with
international best
practices by FY17.
Guinea completed its
Extractive Industry
Transparency Initiative
(EITI) membership
process by FY16.
Achieved. The original
Presidential Decree
#D/2011/218, which
created SOGUIPAMI,
has been replaced by
Decree #D/2015/016,
dated Feb 12, 2015,
which created a state‐
owned enterprise (SOE)
aligned with
Organisation for the
Harmonization of
Corporate Law in Africa
(OHADA) guidelines.
Achieved
Lending:
Mineral Governance Support Project (FY13)
Knowledge/TA:
Guinea Mining Ancillary Infrastructure (Phase 2): Legal Regulatory and Institutional Reforms
Cooperation and coordination between the WBG and the IMF
was instrumental in restructuring
SOGUIPAMI. Both institutions
used their operations to make
the SOE’s restructuring a key
structural measure for Guinea.
This was necessary to overcome
powerful interests driving bad
governance in the mining sector.
The mining TA enabled the design
of a new SOGUIPAMI, which is
aligned with OHADA rules. The
combined and convergent actions
of the WBG and IMF contributed
to safeguarding Guinea’s national
treasury accounts from predatory
borrowings from the SOGUIPAMI.
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
A new decree is adopted to clarify institutional
relationships,
responsibilities and
mandate of SOGUIPAMI
vis‐a‐vis the Ministries in
charge of mines, finance
and transport.
Annual EITI reports are produced.
Achieved. The Decree #D/2015/016 dated Feb 12,
2015 clarified the
relationship of SOGUIPAMI
with the ministries in charge
of finance and mines.
Achieved. EITI 2014 and 2015 were produced. The
preparation of the 2016 EITI
report is underway and is
expected by the end of
December 2017.
The mining TA was an instrument
by which to follow through on
EITI implementation
requirements.
Well‐defined triggers for DPOs
together with a TA to deliver on
technical tasks, is a good way to
address key governance reforms
in mining.
In future, similarly coordinated
activities will be useful to support:
The management by Guinea of multiple users of joint mining ancillary infrastructure;
Economic inclusion of mining activities; and
Sustainability dimensions of mining.
1.2 Re‐established and strengthened basic systems and practices to improve public financial management and human resource management, as well as service delivery. PARTIALLY ACHIEVED
One single HR system is established for the Guinean Civil Service by FY17.
Not achieved. One single HR system has not yet been established for the Guinean Civil Service. The biometric census database completed in 2015 needs to be updated to include newly hired staff.
Lending:
Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building (EGTACB) (FY12)
Additional Financing Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building (FY17)
Power fragmentation and lack of coordination between ministries negatively affected project performance. Hence, there is an urgent need to improve coordination.
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
Discrepancies between the Ministry of Public Administration (MEPS) civil service database and the payroll were reduced from 4 percent in 2014 to 2 percent by 2016.
Increase public contracts procured through open competition from 15 percent in 2014 to 55 percent by 2016.
Not achieved. The interface between the HR system and the payroll system exists and functions relatively well. However, no exact figure exists on the percentage of the discrepancies between the MEPS civil service database and the payroll; it is likely to be over two percent.
Achieved. About 70 percent of public procurement was done through open competition in 2016. However, the public procurement system is generally cumbersome and slow, and many contracts are awarded through single‐source contracting, which adversely affects the credibility and transparency of the system.
Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Operation (FY16)
Knowledge/TA
Republic of Guinea: 2016 Public Expenditure Review (FY16)
The opportunity provided by the Additional Financing EGTACB has fostered ownership and commitment among key stakeholders at the highest level of the Government.
A Steering Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister and including four ministers (Planning, Finance, Budget, and Civil Service), has been created and is actively involved in providing guidance in the design and implementation of the operation.
1.3 Budget reform introduced, including citizen monitoring MOSTLY ACHIEVED
A budget law and a public accounts law are adopted by FY16.
Achieved. An organic law (the Organic Law Relating to
Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building (FY12)
Budget preparation, transparency, and citizen engagement remain week.
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
Budget preparation occurs following a new public financial management (PFM) legal framework by 2017.
Citizen participation in budget preparation and monitoring of services delivered is institutionalized by FY17.
Public Finance ‐ LORLF) was adopted in 2012
Achieved. From 2017, national budget preparation is being implementing as defined by the LORLF.
Not achieved. Citizen participation in budget preparation and monitoring of services has not been effective.
Additional Financing Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building (FY17)
Public Sector Governance and Accountability Project (FY14)
The Additional Financing for EGTACB is supporting the automatization of government business processes in investment planning and monitoring, procurement, and the gradual introduction of an Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) solution.
STRATEGIC CLUSTER 2: STIMULATING GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION MODERATELY SATISFACTORY
2.1 Improved technical and commercial performance of the national power utility MOSTLY ACHIEVED
Increase bill collection rate in Kaloum from 66 percent in 2006 to 95 percent by FY16.
Partially achieved. Bill collection rate has improved from 70 percent to 81.5 percent in Kaloum, thanks to the Electricity Sector Efficiency Improvement Project (ESEIP)(P077317), which closed on June 30, 2016. It installed meters to large consumers. [The
Lending
Electricity Sector Efficiency Improvement Project (FY06)
Power Sector Recovery Project (FY14) Gambia River Basin Development
Organization (OMVG) Interconnection Project (FY15)
Knowledge/TA
Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) (FY14) Public‐Private Infrastructure
Advisory Facility (PPIAF) TA (Hydro)
Baseline indicators were not accurate due to a lack of data. Hence, some targets were not realistic. The situation has improved with the EDG management service contract.
For an interconnected power system, singling out the impact from one activity/project is difficult. Therefore, the new CPF will reflect better on the contribution of the activity to the system/program development. The MSC of EDG is cross‐cutting
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
Decrease total electricity distribution losses in Kaloum from 26.5 percent in FY12 to 16 percent by FY16.
Increase overall bill collection rate nationally from 77 percent in 2014 to 96 percent in 2018.
Reduce overall energy losses from 42 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2018.
failure to install meters to residential consumers made it impossible to achieve the 95 percent goal].
Achieved. Distribution losses were decreased from 26.5 percent to 14.7 percent because of the rehabilitation of the distribution network in Kaloum under the ESEIP financing.
Mostly achieved. The overall bill collection rate has increased from 70 percent to 79 percent today [The baseline was not accurate, and the target was ambitious].
Mostly achieved. Overall energy losses have decreased from 42 percent to 35 percent today. The target of 27 percent is too ambitious.
and covers improvement in the whole system performance.
Interconnection projects take a long time to be implemented; specific output indicators should consider the lead time.
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
2.2 Stronger local level planning of agricultural investment and advisory services MOSTLY ACHIEVED
Irrigated rice yield increased from 2.5t/ha in
year FY13 to 3.6t/ha by
FY17.
Rain‐fed rice yield increased from 1.0t/ha in
FY13 to 1.6t/ha by FY17.
Budget execution rate increased from 74
percent in FY15 to 85
percent in FY19.
Commune‐level Annual Investment Plans (AIPSs) increased from 2 in FY15 to 4 by FY17.
Achieved. Irrigated rice yield increased to 3. 5 t/ha in
2016.
Achieved. Rain‐fed rice yield increased to 2.3 t/ha in
2016.
Not achieved. Official budget funds going through
the rural development
ministries have decreased.
Achieved. There were 125 commune‐‐level AIPs
financed between FY15 and
FY17.
Lending:
Guinea Agriculture Sector Support Project (FY15)
West Africa Agricultural Productivity Project (WAAPP) (FY11)
Additional Financing WAAPP (FY17)
Second Emergency Agricultural Productivity Support Project (FY13)
Third Village Communities Support Project (FY16)
All the planned lending projects have been approved and are
under supervision. WAAPP’s first
phase has been completed, and
the AF was approved by the
Board in 2017 and is being
implemented.
The official budget of the Ministry of Agriculture has
decreased. However, significant
extra‐budgetary resources have
been spent, especially on
agricultural inputs under the
presidential initiative on the
Accelerated Program for Food
Security and Nutrition and
Sustainable Agricultural
Development (PASANDAD). The
amount is not yet known. A Light
Agriculture PER is proceeding
under the Guinea Agriculture
Support Project
New TA is under preparation, including an Agriculture Sector
Review. The study has been
completed, but additional work is
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
underway to prioritize the value
chains.
Through the Village Community Support Project (Phases 1, 2, and on‐going 3), many Communes across the country have gained the capacity to develop and implement Annual Investment Plans (AIPs).
In the new CPF, it is important to sustain this effort by strengthening citizen engagement in the local planning processes. It will help to build stronger trust between the government/state and the citizens, and to ensure that limited resources and development outcomes are shared in an inclusive manner.
2.3 Increase the geographical reach of broadband networks and reduce the costs of communications services in West Africa ACHIEVED
Retail price of internet services (per Mbit/s per
month, in US$) reduced
from $1,200 in FY10 to
$500 by FY16.
Achieved. Retail price of internet services has
significantly decreased. With
WiMAX, for unlimited
download volume (that is,
no cap limit on the quantity
of downloaded data), the
three operators (Orange,
Lending:
West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure Project (WARCIP)– APL ‐1B (FY11)
MIGA support:
Guarantees supporting telecommunications infrastructure
Indicators should be refined and narrowed down to directly attributable outcomes. For instance, the “retail price” indicator — although a natural outcome of the WARCIP project — was not directly influenced by the project, which focused on wholesale prices.
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
International Communications
(Internet,
Telecommunications, and
Data) bandwidth per
person (Kbit/person)
increases from 5 in FY10
to 11 by FY16.
Access to broadband services (256 kb/s
guaranteed) increases
from 20 to 25 percent of
the population in FY16.
MTN, ETI) charge between
US$ 115 and US$ 298 per
Mbps per month.
Achieved. Total international bandwidth
increased from 1Gbps to 9
Gbps between FY10 and
FY16. The percentage of the
population using the
internet increased from 2
percent to 9.8 percent,
leading to a bandwidth of
7.5 kb/s per internet user.
Achieved. According
to the Groupe Spéciale
Mobile) Association
(GSMA), access to
broadband services
(fixed + mobile)
reached 36 percent in
2016.
Knowledge/TA:
Policy Dialogue and Donor Coordination Backbone
Some indicators should measure the implementation of reforms. Many key reforms have been undertaken by the government, resulting in the excellent achievements in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector in Guinea.
The project should directly support the regulator and the ministry in data collection mechanisms, especially when the sources of information are private operators, who are sometimes reluctant to share information.
2.4 Improved selected processes of Guinea’s investment climate and financial systems PARTIALLY ACHIEVED
New Leasing Law
Achieved; New law approved in February 2012
Lending:
MSME Development Project (FY13)
Opening 3 SME technical centers was too ambitious. Lessons learned include starting with a
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
5,000 entrepreneurs trained in basic business modules by FY17, including 500 women. Established 3 SME sector‐focused technical centers.
Increased number of reforms adopted through the Public Private Dialogue platform from 0 in FY15 to 4 by FY18.
Increased the number of businesses registered and included in the Credit Reporting System from 0 in FY15 to 150 by FY18.
Not achieved. 450 entrepreneurs are being trained in business management, about 40 percent of whom are women; one SME technical support center opened in Conakry.
Achieved. 20 reforms have been adopted through the PPD starting from a baseline of 0.
Partially achieved. Over 13,000 businesses registered through the investment promotion agency. A credit reporting system is in the process of being established. It is anticipated that about 200 SME will be migrated over to the system once it becomes operational in November 2017.
IFC Advisory:
Investment Climate Program‐IC (FY12)
TA and Local Supplier Development Project (FY13)
pilot project for the demonstration effect; scale up once proven successful.
The format of the PPD focused too much on the institutional aspect. It created several dysfunctions as the process suffered from a lack of collaboration and partisan divides. Lessons learned include keeping the process strictly technical, with WBG and other development partners providing technical assistance and convening authority. More emphasis should be placed on reform implementation and follow up.
2.5 Improved institutional framework to broaden investment opportunities NOT ACHIEVED
Implementation decrees of the new Leasing Law
Partially achieved: The Leasing Law was approved by the Parliament in
Lending: Reform implementation in fragile
environments requires time, and
good political economy
72
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
are published and disseminated by FY15.
PPP transactions in key sectors.
At least 2 PPP transactions are completed in key sectors such as energy, and agribusiness and services.
February 2012 (N°L/2012/005/CN). Five Leasing Bail Laws are signed in June 2015.
Not achieved. However, the first PPP law in Guinea was adopted by the Parliament June 2017. IFC and PPIAF are advising the government on implementing a decree and creating a PPP unit.
Not achieved.
MSME Development Project in partnership with IFC’s Entrepreneurial Initiative
IFC Advisory:
Leasing (FY13) PPP Project (FY13)
analysis. Developing a PPP
framework has been slower than
expected due to divided views on
institutional arrangements and lack
of leadership. Thus, the two
planned PPP projects have not as
yet been delivered.
2.6 Enhanced regional integration and improved regulation of transport sub‐sectors ACHIEVED
Civil Aviation Code revised and approved by
FY14.
Achieved. The Civil Aviation Code was revised and
approved in November,
2013 (Law L/2013/063/CNT
dated November 5, 2013).
Lending:
West and Central Africa Air Transport (WCAATSS) (FY07)
The groundwork for setting up a Guinean Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) was et at the time of the WCAATSS project closing, but could not be established. It is now embedded in the revised the Civil Aviation Code.
The Presidential Decree D/2017/ 048/PRG/SGG establishing the
73
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
GCAA organization was signed on February 25, 2017: ‐ The GCAA accountant has
been appointed by the Ministry of Finance.
‐ The decree appointing the Board members is pending.
2.7 Stronger governance and management of targeted fisheries, and improved handling of landed fish at selected sites PARTIALLY ACHIEVED
Share of fisheries management data published regularly and made publicly accessible increases from 0 percent in FY15 to 83 percent by FY21.
Share of fishing vessels inspected by the National Fisheries Surveillance Agency for Compliance with National Regulations increases from 25 percent in FY15 to 80 percent in FY21.
Partially achieved. Share of fisheries management data published regularly and made publicly accessible was 16 percent in FY16.
Partially achieved. Share of fishing vessels inspected by the National Fisheries Surveillance Agency for Compliance with National Regulations was 31 percent in FY16.
Lending:
West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) ‐ (FY15)
Knowledge/TA (Regional):
Regional Partnership for African Fisheries Policy Reform (RAFIP)
The reform toward sustainable fisheries resource management requires continued support, within a regional and phased‐approach such as the one offered by the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP).
An effective system of sustainable fisheries resource management should be in place before the State seeks to further develop the fishing industry or a post‐harvest seafood sector.
If successfully managed and utilized, the fisheries resources can generate a substantial and sustainable surplus or wealth that can be reinvested for the development of the economy in general, and for the welfare of its population in particular.
STRATEGIC CLUSTER 3: SUPPORTING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT MODERATELY SATISFACTORY
74
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
3.1 Improve the utilization of maternal, child health and nutrition services at the primary level of care in target regions ACHIEVED
Percentage of deliveries assisted by trained health personnel in targeted areas increased from 24 percent in 2012 to 28 percent by FY17.
Percentage of children (0‐11months) fully vaccinated increased from 16 percent to 20 percent in FY17.
Number of newly trained community health workers engaged in health promotion and basic service delivery increased from 0 in FY15 to 530 by FY19.
Achieved. The percentage of deliveries assisted by trained health personnel in the project zone is 26 percent. The percentage of children fully vaccinated under the project reached 53 percent.
Achieved. The percentage of children (0‐11 months) fully vaccinated increased to 56 percent (as of December 2017).
Achieved. by December 2017, 550 Community Healthy Workers have been engaged in RMNCH promotion and service delivery in the project zones.
Lending
Health Sector Support (FY05) Post‐Ebola Support Project (FY16) Primary Health Services Improvement
Project (FY15)
Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement Project – REDISSE (FY17)
Stepping Up Skills Project (FY14) Knowledge/TA
Strengthening the Post‐Ebola Health Systems: From Response to Resilience in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (2016).
Post Ebola HRH Strengthening (ongoing).
Lesson 1. There is a need to focus on strengthening service delivery outside of Conakry, and particularly in the remoter parts of Guinea. All service delivery and health‐related indicators are a lot worse at this level than what is reflected at the aggregate level. Targeted World Bank support to the remoter regions should continue.
Lessons 2: Many of the current health indicators can be improved by implementing cost effective and relatively simple interventions related to the RMNCH at the primary level of the health system (district level and below). Given the competing needs for funding, this level should continue to be prioritized over other levels.
Lesson 3. Capacity and financing, particularly at the district level and below, is limited. Most decision‐making authority and financing for health continues to be highly centralized and benefits Conakry. Efforts need to continue
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CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
to prioritize and strengthen the allocative efficiency of health financing, as well as the technical, financing and monitoring capacity of authorities and implementers at the decentralized level.
Lesson 4. Health service delivery in remote parts of Guinea, particularly at district level and below, is severely constrained due to lack of sufficient funding. Until larger financing reform occurs in Guinea (for example, the pooling of all funding in combination with greater allocative efficiency), there is an urgent need to continue to finance supplies (trained frontline health workers, pharmaceuticals) and demand side interventions (for community health worker outreach, and fee waivers for the poor to access services).
3.2 Improved access and learning in basic education for underserved populations in project areas, and strengthened capacity in evidence‐based management for MEPUA NOT VALIDATED
Percentage of teachers deployed using the “barême de mutation” (transfer fee schedule) approach increased from
Not evaluated. The definition of the “barême” indicator has been revised to also include within‐region staff redeployments. Based
Lending:
Education for ALL FTI (FY02) Stepping Up Skills Project (FY14) Pooled Fund for Basic Education (FY15)
There is a need now to decide on and scale up a few innovations or reforms for system‐wide impact; otherwise, these innovations will
76
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
92 percent in 2013 to 95 percent in FY17.
Number of teachers participating in the performance‐based incentive program to increase from 1,300 in FY15 to 1,900 by FY19.
Number of Grade 1 and Grade 2 students passing rates on Early Grade Reading Assessments in pilot schools to increase from 12 percent in FY15 to 22 percent by FY19.
on this new definition, the baseline has been measured at 91 percent, and the target set to 95 percent by FY19.
Not evaluated/revised. The performance‐based teacher incentive pilot program was completed; around 1,300 teachers in 420 schools participated. The final report of the related impact evaluation will be completed in FY18. The intervention has been replaced by a performance‐based school grants pilot program, in which all public primary schools (almost 7,000 schools) are participating (on‐going).
Not evaluated. The reading fluency in grade 2 EGRA pilot schools has improved from 7 words per minute in 2014 to 25 words per minute in 2016 (indicator has been formulated at the Mid‐Term Review [MTR] stage).
Ebola Recovery and Reconstruction Trust Fund (FY15)
Development of Inclusive Education in Guinea (FY12)
Knowledge/TA
Republic of Guinea Public Expenditure Review for Education, 2015
Education Impact Evaluation, final deliverable due FY18.
simply remain as pilots for many years.
Suggestions for the new CPF:
Scale‐up of the EGRA pilot to all primary schools with weak learning outcomes.
Continue performance‐based school grants.
Strengthen the capacity and funding of deconcentrated levels of the MEPUA.
Continue HR/teacher management reforms initiated under previous lending projects, including the “barême” for teacher management.
Continue to strengthen MEPUAs’ planning, budgeting and implementation capacity.
77
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
3.3 Contribute in the short term to the control of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and the availability of selected essential health services, and mitigate the socio‐economic impact of EVD ACHIEVED
Availability of at least two weeks of personal
protective equipment
needs and other required
Infection Prevention and
Control supplies in the
Ebola Treatment Centers
(ETCs) and referral
centers increased from 0
percent in 2014 to 80
percent by FY16.
Number of New
Community Care Units
established and fully
operational increased
from 0 in 2013 to 42 by
FY16.
Achieved. Thirty‐nine treatment centers are now equipped to address all potential epidemic disease outbreaks. All 39 are now functional and 89 percent have at least two weeks of PPEs and other required IPC supplies.
Target dropped. Target dropped: Instead of developing community care units, with the end of the Ebola epidemic, the Government opened 39 treatment centers (see above).
Lending:
Ebola Emergency Response Project and Additional Financing (FY15)
Urban Water Project (FY17) Budget Support Operation:
Emergency Macroeconomic and Fiscal Support Operation (FY15)
The support for Ebola Treatment Centers was a critical intervention that helped bring the Ebola epidemic to an end.
With the end of Ebola, the financing of Ebola Treatment Centers is no longer required. Instead, the financing focus should be on general treatment and prevention centers that are equipped to address ALL potential epidemic disease outbreaks. Following the end of Ebola, the project has supported this.
78
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
3.4 Improved employability and employment outcomes for Guinean youth in targeted skills programs NOT ACHIEVED
Established relevant training and education
programs to train 8,000
youth by FY17.
Share of graduation rates/certification at the end of the Bank‐supported training programs increased from 0 percent in FY15 to at least 70 percent by FY17.
Not achieved. Work ongoing to set up relevant training for at least 8,000 youth in FY18. As of December 2016, 17 TVET and higher education sub‐projects have been shortlisted. Proposals were approved by the board of the competitive fund. The first cohorts are expected to be enrolled in 2017‐2018.
Not achieved. Results/ graduation rates/certification delayed due to late start in implementation.
Lending:
Stepping Up Skills Project (FY14) Knowledge/TA
Republic of Guinea Public Expenditure Review, Education 2015
Towards a Tertiary Education Strategy, 2015
Stepping Up Skills Impact Evaluation, ongoing since FY16
The project involves complex institutional arrangements and partnerships. These typically take a year or two to put in place before full‐fledged implementation can begin.
There is a need to strengthen implementation capacity and improve implementation support.
Project governance requires periodic review and realignment to ensure that implementation moves forward smoothly.
79
CPS Outcomes and Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
Lending and Non‐lending Activities that Contributed to the Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the New CPF
3.5 Established functional social safety net system reaching those below the poverty line MOSTLY ACHIEVED
50,000 beneficiaries reached through public works by FY17.
12,000 beneficiaries reached through conditional cash transfers by FY17.
Mostly achieved. By FY17, Bank‐supported projects led to the participation of 43,700 beneficiaries in public works programs in urban and rural areas (32,000 and 11,700 respectively).
Achieved. 12,466 beneficiaries were targeted by Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) (2,000 households).
Lending
Productive Social Safety Net Project (FY12 and FY16)
Additional Financing to Productive Social Safety Nets Project (FY16)
Peace‐Building Trust Fund (FY15) Ebola Recovery and Reconstruction Trust
Fund (FY16) Knowledge/TA
Rapid Social Response Program (FY14 and FY16)
Support to the preparation of the National Social Protection (NSP) Policy and a NSP Strategy
South‐South learning and study tours (including Benin, China, Mali and Senegal)
Analytical work on poverty, ocial protection accompanying measures, ID systems
Forum on Social Protection
Technical workshops
Lesson 1: Strong implementation and governance arrangements are key to ensuring a successful National Social Protection Policy. Suggestion: Continue supporting these arrangements.
Lesson 2. Safety nets are a critical tool to protect the poor and most vulnerable but can also serve as a platform to promote households’ self‐reliance and livelihoods. Suggestion: Expand the Bank’s social protection interventions to promote productive inclusion.
Lesson 3. Investments in early childhood are critical to human development. Suggestion: Reinforce the outreach of safety nets in support of early childhood.
Lesson 4. Bridging humanitarian response (Ebola) with long‐term development is key to a sustainable safety net system. Suggestion: Continue strong collaboration between Government and humanitarian and development agencies.
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Table 2: Guinea Planned and Delivered Operations – FY14‐FY17 CPS ($US millions)
CPS PLANS (09/13/2013) STATUS
FY Project Projected IDA (US$)
TF (US$)
Committed IDA (US$)
TF (US$)
2014 Skills for Growth and Employability
16.6 Delivered in FY15
Agricultural Productivity Sustainable Energy for All Global Partnership for
Education
10.0 1.8 37.8
Not delivered Sustainable Energy for All Delivered FY16
1.8
Additional:
Subtotal:
26.6
39.6 Power Sector Recovery
Project 50 50
1.8
2015 Results Based TA Reform 22.0 Not delivered
Electricity Support 30.0 Delivered in FY14 Stepping Up Skills Project Agricultural Support Project Primary Health Services
Improvement Project
20 15 15.1
Additional:
Emergency Macroeconomic and Fiscal Support Operation (DPO)
50
Subtotal: 52.00 100.1
PLR PLANS (07/18/2015) STATUS
FY Project Projected
IDA TF Committed
IDA TF
2016 Water and Sanitation Services
Third Village Communities Support Program Project
Development Policy Operations
Additional Financing for Social Safety Nets
Power Sector Strengthening
PFM/Governance
Regional Trade and Growth Corridor
TBC
15 40
TBC
TBC TBC 0
55.00
Delivered in FY17 Third Village Communities
Support Project
Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Project (DPO)
Additional Financing for Social Safety Nets Project
Not delivered Not delivered Not delivered
Pooled Funds for Basic Education
Additional:
Social Safety Net Project – Post‐Ebola Recovery Funds
Rural Roads Emergency Improvement Project
15
40
12
67.00
38.8
4.35
2.85
46.00
81
Subtotal
2017 Agriculture Productivity and Food Security
20.0 Not delivered
Higher Education 0 Not delivered
Additional: Economic Governance,
Technical Assistance and Capacity Building – Additional Financing
22
Subtotal:
20
Urban Water Project Post‐Ebola Support Project,
Mamou
30
52
4.35 4.35
Total national 153.6 39.6 269.1 52.15
Regional Programs
2014 Senegal River Basin Multi‐Purpose Water Resources Development Project 2
15.5 Senegal River Basin Climate Change Resilience Development Project
28.5
Subtotal
15.5
Additional: 28.5
2015 Regional Hydropower not speci‐fied
OMVG Interconnection Project
30
West Africa Regional Fisheries (WARF)
3 West Africa Regional Fisheries Program SOP‐C1 – Mauritania and Guinea
10
Ebola Emergency Response Project and Additional Financing
97 Ebola Emergency Response Project and Additional Financing
Additional:
97
Subtotal: 100 137
2016
Subtotal:
Additional: Regional Disease
Surveillance Systems Enhancement (REDISSE)
30
30
2017
Subtotal:
Additional: West Africa Agricultural
Productivity Program APL (WAAPP‐1C) – Additional Financing
23
23
Total Regional: 115.5 0 218.5 0
Total national + regional 269.1 39.6 487.6 52.15
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Table 3: Planned Non-lending Services and Actual Deliveries
FY CPS PLANS (09/13/2013) STATUS (tbc)
2014 ICT TA
Development of Accounting Profession
Financial Sector Development Roadmap Study
Access to Finance for MSMEs (urban and rural) Policy Note
Completed (Policy Dialogue and Donor Coordination Backbone)
Completed
Dropped
Dropped
Additional:
Youth Employment TA (completed)
2015 Mining Ancillary Infrastructure (Phase 2): Legal Regulatory and Institutional Reforms
Towards a Tertiary Education Strategy Assessment of Mining
Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS)
Tourism Sector Note
HD PER/Policy Notes HD PER/Policy Notes 2 Support to Social Protection Strategy Support to Boost Education Impact Evaluation (RSB)
Education Impact Evaluation
Ongoing
Delivered Delivered Delivered Dropped Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered Final deliverable due FY18 Additional:
Public Expenditure Review, Education (2015)
Regional Partnership for African Fisheries Policy Reform (RAFIP)
2016+ PER (II) PER II Additional:
Guinea ‐ 2016 Public Expenditure Review Strengthening the Post‐Ebola Health
Systems: From Response to Resilience in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (2016)
–Post‐Ebola HRH Strengthening (2016) ‐ ongoing
Support to Post‐Ebola Recovery Program (2016)
Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) TA for Guinea
Mining Ancillary Infrastructure (2)
83
Annex 3: New Lending Program FY18‐FY23 CPF
IDA 19
Program (indicative beyond FY19) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21‐FY23 IDA 18 IDA 19
National projects
Economic Reform Series (DPO) 60 40 40 120 260 140 120
Health 45 45 45
Energy Additional Finance 25 25 25
Integrated Agriculture Program with Scale Up 1 2
40 150 190 190
Rural Roads Project 40 40 40
Electricity Access 50 50 50
Enclave Agriculture Operation (including agribusiness) 175 175 175
Micro and SME Promotion and Access to Finance 30 30 30
Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance 30 30 30
Improving Educational Quality and Governance (P4R) 3
50 50 50
Climate Change and Biodiversity Capacity Building Project 20 20 20
Mining Governance Additional Finance 25 25 25
Social Protection System 40 40 40Regional integration (RI) projects (including national contributions)
Identity for Development and ICT 50 50 50
Higher Education and Centers of Excellence 10 10 10
Guinea Mali Interconnection 75 75 75
TOTAL (IDA) ‐ national 170 240 125 120 655 535 120
TOTAL (IDA) ‐ regional 125 10 135 135
o/w national (IDA) contributions 42 3 45 45
TOTAL (IBRD/SUF) 175 150 325 325
TOTAL (IDA+IBRD/SUF) ‐ incl. national contributions to RI projects 295 425 275 120 1115 995 120
Memo: approximate share of each year and focus area in CPF 26% 38% 25% 11% 20% 24% 56% 100% na na
1/ Includes infrastructure/feeder roads component
2/ Sca le Up Faci l i ty avai lable (FY20) on IBRD terms
3/ Includes pi lot on Early Chi ldhood Development
4/ Not including annual programming of es timated additional US$160m in each of FY21‐FY23, respectively.
Focus Areas
IDA 18
Fiscal and
natural resource
management
Human
development
Agricultural
productivity and
economic
of which:CPF
FY18‐21
Total 4
IDA cycle
84
Annex 4: World Bank Engagement by Sector
1. Youth employment and social protection (remain): The Bank has played a leading role in assisting the GoG with social assistance to the most vulnerable. It contributes to youth employment through its infrastructure programs (for example, rural roads), education, and advisory services and analytics (ASA) on urban issues. Bank support is currently being scaled up under an Additional Finance (AF) (expected to close in FY19). The Bank will remain engaged in this critical area to help build a national social protection system. 2. Local governance and investments (scale up): The Bank has been active in this sector for years, notably through the Community Village Support Program (PACV). The Bank will now deepen its engagement in local governance and decentralization. Together with the French Development Agency (AFD), the Bank will help the Government to consolidate, mainstream and scale‐up the program through a gradual operationalization of the National Fund for Local Development (FNDL). Other development partners (DPs) contribute through the Multi‐Partner Trust Fund (MPTF). 3. Private sector development (PSD) (scale up): The WBG is already active in PSD in Guinea and is a significant player relative to other DPs. IFC and the World Bank have collaborated on putting into place a public‐private partnership (PPP) legal framework, a Local Content Law for SME participation, as well as a Public‐Private Dialogue Platform tasked with identifying critical reforms needed to drive private sector and SME development, including several Doing Business‐related reforms. IFC has a large investment portfolio in the mining sector, the financial sector and the tourism industry. It plans to expand in agribusiness, housing, energy and PPP transactions. 4. Rural development/agricultural sector (remain): The Bank is already providing significant support to the rural sector through a number of national and regional projects. The Bank will adopt a cross Global Practice (GP) approach involving Trade and Competitiveness (T&C), Transport, as well as Water, to accelerate agricultural transformation and the emergence of commercial agriculture in Guinea. The Bank will remain a key partner in the agricultural sector to help the government develop a global knowledge, improve its trade policies and reformulate unhealthy food products. 5. Urban development (limit engagement): The Bank has not been active in this sector since 2005. The Bank will invest in building knowledge in the sector during the current CPF. This will complement major infrastructure investments supported by bilateral donors, such as China, Morocco and Turkey. Although the Bank is not involved in urban development (urban planning, and so on), many CPF‐supported interventions will have positive impacts on urban areas (such as electricity, water, SMEs, youth employment, and so on). 6. Water and sanitation (remain): Under this CPF, the Bank will focus on improving access to clean water in the Greater Conakry area, and support the development of sanitation strategic documents in coordination with an on‐going EU‐financed program. The AFD will focus on selected small towns. 7. Health (remain): The Bank has been a critical partner in supporting the government in efforts to strengthen its health system for many years. It played an instrumental role in supporting efforts to eradicate Ebola, improve service delivery and the utilization of health services — particularly in the Post‐Ebola context. In addition, the Bank helped to strengthen overall pandemic preparedness to prevent future crises. The Bank will continue to support the implementation of the National Health Policy (PNDS), and efforts to bring about better coordination and efficiency of health resources, service delivery — and ultimately health outcomes.
85
8. Education (scale up): Jointly with other development partners, the Bank has been involved in basic education and skills development and employability. The Bank will deepen its support to the GoG in these areas while also supporting improved quality in high education, as well as improved teaching in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) to help better prepare young people for work.
9. Energy (scale up): The WBG has provided significant support for the implementation of the Power Sector Recovery Plan (2012‐2017). This was done in coordination with the AFD, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Islamic Development Bank. The Chinese have also provided significant financing to increase the country’s generation capacity (through the construction of a dam). The WBG will deepen its engagement in the energy sector to strengthen sector management, increase access to electricity and sustainability, and increase connectivity with Mali. IFC will provide advisory services to review a Memorandum of Understanding for a grid‐connected Solar PV. It will also assist in the competitive bidding process to select independent power plants (IPPs). 10. Governance and budget support (scale up). A series of two Development Policy Operations (DPOs) were initiated in 2016, and successfully supported the GoG in implementing key governance reforms. These included strengthening public finance management (including public procurement, SOEs, mineral auditing, and so on), as well as the efficiency and effectiveness in key sectors such as energy, agriculture, mining, education and health. The last DPO will be sent to the Board for consideration in March 2018. The CPF plans to continue to use Programmatic Development Policy Loans (DPLs) to further assist the GoG in implementing its reforms program in coordination with other donors, such as the IMF, the European Union (EU), IFAD and AFD. In the area of mining governance, the Bank will scale up and consolidate its engagement in conjunction with IFC and MIGA support. 11. Infrastructure (enter roads): The Bank is re‐engaging in rural roads because they are critical for improving the productivity in the agriculture sector and access to markets. Close coordination and synergy will be required between the two programs. Positive steps have been taken under the FY18 DPO to clarify and improve the existing institutional framework, including especially the clarification of the division of roles between Ministries (notably, civil works and agriculture) and governmental agencies. In ICT, the Bank has supported the Government to improve access and quality of connectivity and reduce costs. The Bank is not planning a successor IPF but will maintain a policy dialogue. It will also continue to promote the use of technology across its portfolio. 12. Environment and climate change (enter): The Bank will re‐engage in the environment to assist the GoG in implementing its action plan following the Paris Climate Change Agreement. It will also help build the institutional capacity and develop the necessary tools to help make and monitor decisions to ensure the more sustainable management of the country’s abundant natural resources (e.g. mines, water, bio‐diversity, forests). This re‐engagement, for example through the Climate Change and Biodiversity Capacity Building Project (FY20), drawing on Bank‐wide expertise to ensure that extraction activities do not crowd out biodiversity, would complement IFC’s work to establish the Moyen‐Bafing National Park through supporting the Ministry of Environment in developing a multi‐sectoral plan in the Moyen‐Bafing region to protect various natural resources while also maximizing economic opportunities for the local community. This would address conflicting pressures on land use through agriculture, hydropower and conservation of forests and wildlife.
13. Defence and security (out, with the exception of an indirect contribution through reduction of FCV risks): Although the WBG has no direct involvement in defence and security, it will contribute to addressing the drivers of fragility, conflict and violence and mitigating the risks associated with them throughout its portfolio.
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Annex 5: Guinea Active IDA Portfolio
Project ID Project NameDeveloppement
ObjectivesImplementation
ProgessFiscal Year IBRD IDA Others Cancel Undisb.
P122916 S S 2013 0 20 0 0 5.7P123900 S S 2012 0 37 0 0 8
P125890 MS MS 2012 0 33 0 0 24.2
P146474 MU S 2015 0 20 0 0 12.7P146696 MS MS 2014 0 50 0 0 23.6
P147758 MS MS 2015 0 15.1 0 0 11.4
P148114 MS MU 2015 0 15 0 0 6.7P148127 MS MS 2016 0 0 37.8 0 18.2P156422 S S 2016 0 15 0 0 9.8P157782 MS MS 2017 0 30 0 0 31.2
Overall result 0 235.1 37.8 0 151.5
Third Village Community Support ProjectGuinea Urban Water Project
Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building
GUINEA - Stepping Up Skills ProjectPower Sector Recovery ProjectGN Primary Health Services Improvement Project
Guinea Agricultural Support ProjectGUINEA - Pooled-Fund for Basic Education
Supervision ratings Original amount in US$ MillionsLast PSR
Mineral Governance Support ProjectProductive Social Safety Net Project
87
Annex 6: Implementation Note for the IDA18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR) in Guinea
A. Introduction
1. This Implementation Note provides the background and rationale for granting Guinea access to the IDA18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR). This regime is designed to provide eligible countries with enhanced support to reduce risks of fragility, conflict and violence (FCV). It aims to provide a dedicated financing mechanism to incentivize investments in conflict prevention by providing countries with additional financing of up to one‐third of their indicative IDA18 allocation. The Guinea Implementation Note draws on a Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA) prepared in May 2017. 2. This annex provides an analysis of the key drivers of fragility, conflict and violence facing Guinea, as well as opportunities for risk mitigation, including government and partner commitment and existing development responses. This Implementation Note also suggests a strategic approach and activities for the RMR, including the allocation of RMR resources, building on table 2 in the Country Partnership Framework (CPF). Finally, the Note describes proposed arrangements for monitoring progress, as well as for partnership and coordination arrangements.
B. Overview of Critical FCV Risks
3. The Republic of Guinea is a resource‐rich country of 12.6 million people, the majority of whom live in poverty (55 percent in 2012). The country held its first truly democratic elections in 2010 and the new government, which was re‐elected in 2015, has sought to attract foreign investment. However, the Ebola crisis (2013–2016) and the fall of international commodity prices thwarted many of these attempts. With a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$500 in 2016 and increasing poverty levels, the population is currently experiencing severe socioeconomic stresses that have been increasingly giving rise to violent unrest across the country — especially following the recent local elections held in February 2018. Protests and instability threaten Guinea’s unique window of opportunity to tackle some of its severe structural problems. The frequent instances of violent protest illustrate two important points. First, Guinea still finds itself at the beginning of a fragile political transformation process that is too often considered concluded simply by virtue of having held democratic elections. Second, the Guinean government needs to address the underlying factors that have led to protests and given rise to risks of instability and conflict.
4. Guinea faces a complicated set of interrelated drivers of fragility, conflict, and violence. Four key drivers of fragility have emerged from the 2017 RRA. These drivers need to be understood in terms of intersecting factors —and not viewed in isolation from one other.
(i) Weaknesses in the delivery of services undermine state legitimacy
5. One of the key drivers of fragility in Guinea is poor service delivery, contributing to the population’s lack of support for state institutions. Whether in providing health, education, security, electricity, or water provision services, the administration is perceived as underfunded, insufficiently trained, and accordingly inefficient. There is a profound structural deficit that stems from Guinea’s long history of a personalized and politicized state system. Lacking access to key public services constitutes a major grievance among Guineans today, resulting in well‐documented protests against failures in the health and education systems in particular. Although there have been remarkable achievements in justice and security system reforms at the central level, mistrust in these systems at the local levels has provoked a rise in public lynching across the country. Scattered violent attacks against prefects, sub‐prefects, and mayors have also increased. Finally, popular indignation has focused on the Guinean mining sector, which most Guineans consider corrupt — despite the progress made in recent years by the Government to improve the sector’s governance.
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6. Unregulated and rapid urbanization are also contributing factors to increased risks of political instability and social unrest. Guinea’s capital city, Conakry, provides evidence of how unregulated and rapid rural‐urban migrations and urbanization, an undiversified labor market, and demographic stresses may conspire to produce political instability. According to European Union (EU) projections, the Conakry area’s population is expected to reach 6 million by 2040, a significant increase from the 2.3 million who live there today. The multiple challenges that Conakry faces in terms of infrastructure, social protection, services, urban planning, and connectivity have prompted grievances that have led to recurrent episodes of social unrest. In Conakry, for instance, non‐policed urban spaces along the so‐called “axis” have suffered from state neglect that has resulted in a sustained perception of exclusion and marginalization. Whereas the gang, clan, or staff model that was prevalent during the 2007 riots has largely disappeared, poor, urban young men still participate in riots, looting, and violent clashes with police. As such, they continue to threaten political stability, especially because their indignation force has been widely used by political parties.
(ii) Exposure to external shocks and high food prices
7. More than 80 percent of the country’s foreign exchange derives from mining exports, mainly bauxite and iron ore, as well as gold and diamonds. The decline of global commodity prices, coinciding with Guinea’s Ebola epidemic (2013–2016), had a severe impact on the economy. The mining sector contracted significantly in 2015, and real GDP growth in 2015 reached only 0.1 percent in 2015, compared to a forecast of 4.3 percent. However, the Guinean economy is gradually recovering from these two major shocks, and in 2016 growth rebounded to 5.2 percent. Positive supply shocks in the mining sector, a strong agricultural harvest, and higher electricity supplies are supporting the post‐Ebola recovery. Some commodity prices, including bauxite and gold, have improved. Mining, especially bauxite, and agriculture have been growth drivers, with the latter showing strong resilience.
8. Although affordability has improved in recent years, Guinea’s foodstuff remains costly. Economic downturns have an immediate effect on the poor. About 85 percent of food‐insecure people in Guinea belong to the bottom 40 percent, and the Ebola epidemic is likely to have aggravated the bottom tier’s socioeconomic precariousness. The critical political effects of Guinea’s food insecurity were evident in 2007, when galloping inflation and high food prices made staples such as rice unaffordable for large portions of the population. This in turn triggered the country’s first nationwide political unrest against the government.
(iii) Youth exclusion and underemployment
9. Guinea is a young society (with a median age of 18.6 years), and its youth face a barely functioning education system and exceedingly high levels of structural unemployment and underemployment. Guinean youth are not sufficiently educated when they enter the job market. More than half are illiterate. Whether schooled or not, most have no choice but to enter a largely informal labor market that is trending toward less productive and lower‐paying jobs. Nonetheless, rural youth continue to migrate to cities in search of income, adding stress to already overwhelmed urban labor markets and infrastructure.
10. Young urban men have played a key role in Guinea’s protests, and certain violence‐prone and politicized youth milieus continue to pose a critical risk to political stability. Since 2007, protests and revolts started to become a regular means in the struggle for political power. In this context, young men from Conakry’s urban margins — particularly along the Route Le Prince in the Ratoma district — have routinely constituted the bulk of violent protesters. Over the past decade, urban youth groups—so‐called staffs, clans, and gangs—have been the instigators, organizers, and vanguards in demonstrations, riots, and clashes with police, often in connection with political actors who paid them for their services. Although urban youth have become less organized, they are no less radical, as evidenced by the citywide clashes in Conakry between urban youth and police forces on February 20, 2017.
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(iv) The political instrumentalization of identity in a context of significant social fault lines
11. Guinea’s main political parties tend to be organized along ethnic and regional lines, and this political instrumentalization of identity exacerbates political conflicts. Whereas ethnicity is socially unproblematic in everyday life, Guinea’s experience with multiparty politics in recent years has been marked by worrying degrees of identity‐based and political tensions. Complex issues of national belonging and antagonisms between social groups were key issues in the 2010 presidential elections. Since then, violent clashes between militants from different political parties and/or the armed forces during national elections have occurred. However, Guinea’s conflicts are not based on factors related to identity alone. This is illustrated by the recurrent protests along Conakry’s Route Le Prince and recent clashes between groups in Guinea’s Forest region. The tensions have proven to be much more complex and are in fact multidimensional.
12. These conflicts have had an important impact on various regions that are highly differentiated in terms of population, poverty, resources and connections with the capital city and the ocean shores. Sub‐regional imbalances and inequalities also tend to become increasingly politicized due to the instrumentalization of different identities.
13. Guinea can build on several resilience factors that can help the country deal with its drivers of fragility:
Perhaps, paradoxically, Guinea can build on its remarkable social cohesion across groups. For as much as politics tends to accentuate identity‐based divisions to mobilize constituencies, trans‐identity networks interconnect Guinean society in everyday life. Traditional authorities, for instance, steadily remind Guineans of their common history and their ancestors’ interethnic pacts. As such, they have successfully de‐escalated critical situations of identity‐based violence. Religion also provides an important spiritual, normative, and cultural unifying framework to which most Guineans can relate.
Socioeconomic mechanisms of sharing among families and relatives constitute another important reservoir of resilience. The extended family is an important safety net that also connects urban and rural areas. Women play a particularly important role, and many are organized in so‐called sèrès, that is, mutual economic support circles of women of the same generation.
Guinea’s civil society has become a vibrant, pluralistic, and uncensored force that shapes innovative perspectives on politics. Unions, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), associations, youth groups, and journalists for various media, as well as bloggers and interactive web users, have contributed to an increasing diversification of the Guinean political discourse.
Finally, Guinea can build on its long‐standing resilience to large‐scale conflict in a region that has been troubled by civil war. Despite numerous past conflicts in neighboring countries — and Guinea’s substantial reception of refugees from Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, and Sierra Leone — the country has never experienced any conflict spillover, nor has it had a civil war or faced a regional armed rebellion. Such resilience is indicative of a deep sense of national identity and cohesion.
14. In terms of foreseeable trigger events for potential conflict or violence, elections constitute a significant risk. The legislative elections that took place in February 2018 already led to violence and electoral disputes, which have yet to be fully settled. There are fears too that the presidential elections slated for 2020 could suffer the same fate. Other events that could trigger protests include salary negotiations for public servants, as well as economic shocks or rising food and fuel prices in a context of high food insecurity.
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C. Opportunities for Risk Mitigation
15. The Government of Guinea has articulated its commitment to addressing critical FCV risks in a series of key strategic documents. The overarching long‐term vision for Guinea’s development is transcribed in the “Guinée Vision 2040” document, which was approved in April 2017. The vision’s first pillar dealing with peace unity and national solidarity identifies four key issues (democracy, national reconciliation, justice and security) where progress is essential. The second pillar highlights the importance of addressing issues of public administration, corruption and decentralization. The National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES) highlights the fragility of the “Guinean system” that is leading to inefficiencies and preventing the country from achieving its development goals. This analysis is drawn from a Fragility Assessment undertaken in 2016 in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), using the New Deal methodology.14 Therefore, fragility considerations have been integrated into the PNDES. In particular, Pillar 1 of the PNDES identifies “Rule of law, democracy, security and social cohesion” as priorities. The aim, then, is to address factors that contribute to the “political and social fragility” of the country, while also making the country more resilient.
16. Although challenges remain, the Government of Guinea has also undertaken successful reforms, investments and public policies, for instance in the energy and mining sectors, with the adoption of the mining code in 2011 and its amendment in 2013. Reforms have also been undertaken in the justice and security sectors. The implementation of the Security Sector Reform (SSR) is based on a strategic framework that includes the National Defense and Security Policy (PNDS) of 2013 and the National Strategy for Priority Action (Stratégie Nationale d’Actions Prioritaires, SNAP) of 2016. In some communes, the Government has created local councils for security and crime prevention (Conseils Locaux de Sécurité et de Prévention de la Délinquance, CLSPD) to promote better security management at the local levels. The Government has also explored community policing in the pilot communes of Conakry and N’Zérékoré. Finally, the Ministry of National Unity and Citizenship is currently preparing its National Strategy for Conflict Prevention and Management and Citizenship Strengthening (Stratégie Nationale de Prévention et de Gestion des Conflits et de Renforcement de la Citoyenneté).
17. Various nongovernmental actors are also committed to helping address FCV risks. Traditional institutions have demonstrated their capacity to deescalate interethnic tensions, as was the case at the end of the 2010 presidential election campaigns when traditional leaders from among both the Fulani and Malinké contributed to defusing violence. Religious actors are key societal forces that help to ensure social cohesion. For example, the Peulh and Malinké Imams have been major actors in recent reconciliation efforts. Civil society organizations also play a social role in helping address FCV risks. Indeed, they have a considerable impact on Guinean politics and youth mobilization. Civil society has also made efforts to organize itself at the national level, with the creation of the National Council of Guinean Civil Society Organizations (CNOSCG) in 2002.
18. Numerous international partners are supporting Guinea’s efforts to tackle its humanitarian, development and security challenges.15 Key partners include the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the EU, the French Agency for Development (AFD), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the United Nations (UN) (see CPF, Figure 2: World Bank Comparative Advantage). Between 2005 and 2011, official development assistance (ODA) to Guinea reached an average of US$ 222.8 million per year, and US$21.6 per capita
14 The “New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States” was adopted in November 2011 at the 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Korea. It is an agreement between a group of fragile and conflict-affected states and development partners. It identifies commitments to build mutual trust and achieve better results in fragile states. 15 Based on the 2014-2015 average, Guinea’s top donors of gross ODA were, by order of importance: the IMF (US$ 94.8 million), the World Bank (US$ 89.25 million), France (US$ 76.57 million), EU Institutions (US$ 70.77 million), the US (US$ 59.3 million), the AfDB, Japan, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Canada, and Germany.
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— less than half the Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) average of US$ 48.9 per capita over the same period. As a result of the Ebola epidemic, almost a third of the bilateral assistance provided to Guinea consisted of humanitarian aid for the 2014‐2015 period. This was followed by social infrastructure and services (19 percent), and production (13 percent).
19. The World Bank is well placed to significantly scale‐up its contribution to mitigating the risk of fragility and violent conflict in Guinea. The current portfolio already integrates operations related to natural resource management, safety nets, economic governance, agriculture development, and improvement of service delivery – all sectors/areas that are key to FCV risk mitigation. The World Bank also has a strong policy engagement and dialogue with the government on economic and social reforms. These reforms can also provide the platform to table important issues related to the mitigation of fragility and conflict risks. Finally, the World Bank has developed a solid analytical knowledge base of fragility issues in Guinea, reinforced by the more recent RRA. In Guinea, more than in many other countries of the region, a strong World Bank Group approach to addressing fragility risks — fully involving the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) — is essential. This is especially the case for the governance of the extractive industries, as well as in increasing the positive social impact of mining investments.
D. Strategic Priorities and Activities for the Risk Mitigation Regime
20. The overall objective of the Risk Mitigation Regime in Guinea will be to support Guinea’s efforts to reduce the structural drivers of fragility and conflict that were identified in the RRA, while also supporting quick wins in a context of instability driven by social discontent. As laid out in the CPF, the Risk Mitigation Regime will also be used to leverage a greater focus of the overall World Bank program in Guinea on fragility and conflict risks. Specific projects with a stronger focus on FCV risks will benefit from additional funding from the RMR to support a scale‐up in activities and/or the coverage of geographic areas that face stronger risks. Fragility considerations will also be integrated in the overall portfolio, the Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) program and the policy dialogue.
21. The following three strategic priority areas have been identified to support a reduction of FCV‐related risks.
3.1) Promote inclusive institutions through the improvement of local governance and the local delivery of services (CPF Objectives 2, 5, 6, 7)
22. One of the key drivers of FCV risks in Guinea is poor service delivery, contributing to a mistrust of state institutions on the part of the population. This represents a profound structural deficit, which dates back to a long history of personalized and politicized state systems in Guinea. One of the key grievances among Guineans is their overall frustration with frequent electricity and water shortages, misconduct of the security forces, failures of the health and education system, and other inadequate public services. This frustration has frequently translated into vehement and sometimes violent indignation, directly contributing to further destabilizing an already weak state. Some of these events were related to the Ebola crisis and were much publicized by international media. However, many other incidents have been observed throughout the country over the past few years, especially around electricity provision. There has also recently been an alarming rise of public lynching and the creation of vigilantes across the country, especially in the Conakry and Guinée Forestière areas.
23. In this context, then, any long‐term improvement in Guinea’s state institutions will necessarily entail a direct impact at the local level. Through the RMR, the World Bank will focus on the local delivery of services and increasing access to electricity in rural and urban areas. In conjunction with institution‐building efforts, the regular involvement of citizens at the community level will also help build local governance and reinforce trust in formal institutions. In addition, reinforcing the capacity of local institutions to prevent and manage local conflicts — in effect, serving as an early warning and early response system — will also contribute to reinforcing their legitimacy in the eyes of
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the public. The World Bank will also support the improvement of the provision of basic services in the Conakry districts, while also gradually reengaging on urban development issues. This will complement the programming of other donors already involved in basic service delivery projects in Conakry.
24. These challenges will be addressed through the following entry points:
‐ Strengthening service delivery at the local level. Improving the delivery of local services — especially health and education — will contribute to addressing key popular grievances in a country where 17 percent of health staff is located in rural areas, covering 70 percent of the population. Improving service delivery will also reinforce the attractivity of rural life. Projects: Health Service and Capacity Strengthening, and Education Program for Results.
‐ Improving access to electricity in rural and urban areas. The energy sector is an area where potential quick wins could be delivered. Both the population and the private sector have high expectations regarding improved access to electricity and electricity production. The World Bank will support the Electricité de Guinée (EDG) in its efforts to meet the challenges of electricity distribution in Conakry, secondary cities and rural areas. In addressing the inadequacy of electricity tariffs, it will also be important to pay close attention to the potential social and political unrest that any tariff increase could cause if not managed carefully. Project: Electricity Access Scale Up.
‐ Reinforcing local institutions, citizen engagement and mechanisms for conflict management. Improving service delivery will not be sufficient to building trust in governmental institutions. Institutions need to be strengthened as they will provide a foundation for power sharing, conflict mitigation and dispute settlement, as well as resource redistribution. The series of World Bank Group‐funded Village Community Support Projects (PACV) is a very successful intervention in this respect, as it has managed to support the first steps in local institution building. The continuation of this project, in particular through the creation of the state‐owned National Fund for Local Development (FNDL), will ensure this approach is embedded in Guinea’s governance system. To reinforce social cohesion and reduce conflict risks, including in the context of planned elections, the World Bank will strengthen the capacity of local actors to manage conflicts through an improved early warning and response system. Community institutions and citizen engagement mechanisms (participatory planning for budgeting, participatory monitoring, enhanced feedback mechanisms) will be supported to strengthen relationships between communities and local authorities, including between young people and the broader community Project: Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance.
3.2) Accountability and transparency of the extractives sector (CPF Objective 4)
25. A major aspect of fragility in Guinea is related to the dependence on mining resources and the expectations that this sector creates among the population. Guinea is endowed with vast natural resources, especially in mining and hydropower potential, which could contribute to increased access to electricity in urban and rural areas. Both mining and hydropower have the potential to generate substantial income streams. The country’s mining deposits are particularly rich. Its iron ore resources are among the largest and highest quality in the world and include the world’s biggest unexploited iron deposit in Simandou. Mining accounted for 35 percent of GDP and about 80 percent of exports in 2015. Guinea also possesses large reserves of bauxite, estimated at 7‐8 billion tons, or about one‐third of total global resources. However, due to poor management of the sector — and despite legal improvements created by the 2011 new mining code — revenues from the mining sector have been declining in relation to GDP over the past few years.
26. The mining and hydropower sectors have proven difficult to develop because of the often isolated and inaccessible locations of sites, requiring enormous investments in transportation infrastructure. The accountability, transparency and effective management of these sectors have also
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been a major issue, increasing the frustration of the population in general, and the communities in mining areas in particular. The mining and energy sectors are creating a limited number of jobs due to the lack of potential for local transformation, and because many of the investments are capital intensive or require skills that are not readily available in Guinea.
‐ Supporting a more transparent and inclusive management of the mining sector. The World Bank will provide International Development Association (IDA) resources to strengthen capacity and governance systems of key institutions for managing the minerals sector in Guinea, including support for the implementation of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). The World Bank will help improve the early warning mechanism for communal conflicts, many of which are related to mining. A local level conflict resolution system will be supported, and will be triggered ahead of violence (see above). Project: Mining Governance Support, Additional Financing.
‐ In addition, through its investments in the mining sector, IFC will aim at promoting a more inclusive mining sector with enhanced local economic beneficiation for communities and local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) around the mining regions. Specific advisory programs will ensure that the cumulative impact on the environment and biodiversity are addressed to achieve a more sustainable development of the sector.
3.3) Improve resilience to shocks and access to employment opportunities for youth (CPF Objectives 6 and 9)
27. Guinea’s vulnerability to external shocks and high food prices constitutes a particular fragility risk. Guinea’s economy relies heavily on the mining sector, thereby increasing its exposure to external shocks. This risk is exacerbated in the context of declining global commodity prices. Moreover, as noted, very high food prices negatively impact the poorest strata of the population, fueling political unrest and discontent, as was the case in 2007.
28. The lack of socioeconomic perspectives for youth, associated with a high level of rural‐urban migration, also constitutes a driver of fragility if left unaddressed. Underemployment and unemployment rates are high, and the education system fails to provide adequate skills and qualifications to young people when they enter the job market. Despite these low socioeconomic prospects, rural youth continue to migrate to urban areas in search of a better future, thereby adding pressure on urban areas. In the past, urban youth have played a significant role in Guinea’s social and political unrest. If youth concerns are not addressed, this could lead to political instability.
29. The agriculture sector is a growth driver and the main source of employment in Guinea. It could drive economic diversification, substantial job creation, poverty reduction and rural development. The World Bank’s strong engagement in the agriculture sector will aim to help address two major drivers of risk: vulnerability to external shocks and unemployed youth. While not targeted under the RMR, the World Bank will apply a fragility lens to projects in the agriculture sector to ensure that considerations for increased productivity are balanced with concerns for intensity of job creation. Close attention will also need be paid to land issues, including land use and distribution.
30. Under the RMR, the Bank will focus on the following priority areas:
- Strengthening social protection mechanisms to mitigate the impact of shocks: To protect rural households from unexpected shocks that can negatively affect their incomes and act as driver of fragility, the Bank will support the development of social protection systems. This will include the use of labor‐intensive technologies (including public works) to maximize income‐earning opportunities for the unemployed, especially young people. Project: Social Protection System.
- Strengthening economic opportunities and creating jobs for youth: Under the RMR, the World Bank will focus on creating economic opportunities in urban areas, especially for youth.
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This would help to address the risk of associated social and political unrest. The RMR will support entrepreneurship. For youth with low skills (or no skills at all), funding will support several labor‐intensive public works projects. The Bank’s support for improvements to connectivity and logistics within rural areas — and to improve access to the Conakry port — will also improve the physical access of young people to job opportunities in towns and cities. Projects: Rural Mobility and Connectivity, Social Protection System.
Distribution of the RMR allocation
31. The distribution of the RMR allocation among sectors will be as follows:
Program Amount from RMR Allocation (US$ millions)
Total Project Size (US$ millions)
1‐ Local governance and local delivery of services Improving Institutional Capacity and Local Governance 27.5 40.0
Health Service and Capacity Strengthening 20.0 45.0
Education Program for Results 20.0 50.0
Electricity Access Scale Up 20.0 50.0
2‐ Transparency of the extractives sector
Mining Governance Support Additional Financing 15.0 25.0
3‐ Resilience to shocks and economic opportunities for youth
Social Protection System 15.0 40.0
Rural Mobility and Connectivity Project 15.0 40.0
TOTAL 132.5
Advisory services and analytics (ASA)
32. The ASA program will also assume a stronger focus on fragility issues, in particular ASA related to the operations or sectors targeted through the RMR. These include planned ASA on mainstreaming citizen engagement, decentralization of services, electricity costs and subsidies, the distributional impact of spending, strengthening social protection, as well as a dedicated ASA to better understand mechanisms for early warning and conflict resolution at the local level. As noted, a new RRA will be conducted toward the end of FY20 to provide an updated qualitative assessment of Guinea’s risk landscape.
E. Arrangements for monitoring progress
33. The implementation of the FCV Risk Mitigation Regime requires simple monitoring arrangements at the country level. A set of relevant indicators will be selected and used to monitor Guinea’s progress on mitigating identified risks, including their evolution. As noted, this section includes two key components: (i) Monitoring progress in the implementation of the Risk Mitigation Regime by the World Bank; and (ii) Strengthening the Government’s own systems for monitoring FCV risks and conflict early warning.
a) Monitoring of the implementation of the Risk Mitigation Regime by the World Bank
34. The Bank will monitor key trends in FCV‐related risks at a strategic level, and integrate relevant FCV‐specific indicators into new projects, notably those that will benefit from RMR financing. It will also periodically take stock of overall RMR implementation, including government commitment. It will undertake a qualitative assessment of the FCV landscape and the effectiveness of the Bank’s RMR support in mitigating risks.
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35. Contextual risk monitoring. A light‐touch monitoring framework will be put in place to track the overall evolution of Guinea’s risk landscape and measure results in risk mitigation activities. A short list of indicators and related baselines will be determined in the 3 months following the adoption of the present Implementation Note.16 This will complement indicators that have been integrated into the CPF. Data collection will build as much as possible on existing systems and data collection efforts. The monitoring framework will mix qualitative indicators, which measure perceptions, as well as quantitative indicators, which aim to capture objective changes.
36. Given the important role of perception surveys in monitoring key risks and trends in areas such as security, governance, service delivery and social cohesion, the Bank will exploit synergies with existing and planned surveys, such as the service delivery indicators (SDI), the survey planned for the education sector (FY20), the poverty assessment (FY19), and/or those carried out by other development partners or academic institutions.17 The Bank will also work with existing projects, such as the Village Communes Program (PACV), which explores the establishment of a call center and regularly collects data through Community Scorecards that assess the satisfaction of users and citizens with regard to service delivery (basic social services, such as education, health, and water, and local government services, such as the civil registry, tax administration, and so on).
37. Portfolio and Project‐level monitoring. The Country Management Unit (CMU) is planning to establish a geo‐spatial platform to facilitate the monitoring of portfolio implementation and to acquire a better understanding of the spatial distribution of interventions, for example in relation to Guinea’s poverty/vulnerability profile. The geo‐mapping of project activities will allow for tracking of key project information and help to identify opportunities for cross‐sector coordination and collaboration. This will be particularly important for projects operating in vulnerable regions. The geo‐mapping of project data will be combined with other readily available data layers, for example, data related to violent incidents, citizen perceptions, and overall vulnerability. Thus, it will be linked to the monitoring of contextual risks.
38. Projects supported by the RMR will include indicators in their results frameworks to monitor the impact of their interventions on FCV issues. These will be defined during the preparation phase of the projects. Data will need to be sufficiently disaggregated by geographical area (for example, national level versus risk areas), gender, age and social groups, when relevant. This will help to capture differential dimensions of the situation, as local circumstances can vary within the same country, region, or community. It will also help to ensure that the right groups are benefiting from the interventions aimed at addressing FCV risks. In fragile situations, data collection in insecure environments can be challenging. Therefore, the World Bank will seek to adopt innovative solutions and integrate flexible monitoring and evaluation (M&E) methods for current and/or planned projects. This could include the use of Iterative Beneficiary Monitoring (IBM), third party monitoring, participatory monitoring and/or technologies (mobile phone surveys, for instance) to collect real‐time and localized data.
39. Periodic stock‐take and qualitative review. In order to assess the implementation of the RMR, the World Bank will produce a short narrative progress report for the IDA Mid‐Term Review and at the end of IDA18. These reports will include an assessment of government policies and actions in addressing FCV‐related risks.
16 As the Risk Monitoring Framework will draw on existing indicators, most baselines will be available. However, for some qualitative indicators, the identification of the baseline may require more time if a perception survey is needed. 17 In the security sector, the non-governmental organization (NGO) COGINTA provides technical assistance on the sector’s governance, police reform and community-oriented policing, and regularly conducts perception surveys. Useful data can also be drawn from existing research networks, such as the Afrobarometer.
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40. A new Risk and Resilience Assessment will be conducted toward the end of FY20 to provide an updated qualitative assessment of Guinea’s risk landscape. This will include a review of the Bank’s engagement on risk mitigation issues and could provide baseline information for the IDA19 cycle.
b) World Bank support to the Government of Guinea in strengthening risk monitoring and early warning systems and capabilities
41. The World Bank will support the government’s own efforts to monitor FCV‐related risks and provide assistance to a few targeted institutions. This support will be part of the envisaged RMR‐financed operations and will build on the government’s ongoing efforts in conflict early warning, including establishing its own monitoring and evaluation and data collection capabilities.
42. The World Bank will also explore how to strengthen early warning systems and build on existing initiatives. Early warning systems allow stakeholders to anticipate trends and better understand the rapidly changing dynamics of situations. If these systems are clearly linked to response mechanisms, they can be a useful tool for the management and prevention of conflicts, including the generation of local responses to avoid the escalation of violence. Therefore, the World Bank will work with actors involved in early warning systems — such as the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP), the Peace Building Fund (PBF) and Search for Common Ground (SFCG) — to identify windows of opportunities.
43. The Global Partnership for Social Accountability (GPSA) is working on a 12‐month pilot project to be implemented in an initial group of four countries (Guinea, Nepal, Niger and Tajikistan). This project seeks to learn how collaborative state‐citizen engagement can help to improve public service delivery, while also building the skills and capacities needed for conflict prevention and consensus‐building. The project will support capacity development for effective and collaborative citizen engagement and promote the engagement of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and governments. Efforts to strengthen mechanisms for early warning and risk monitoring will take into account lessons from the GPSA pilot activities.
F. Partnership and Coordination Arrangements
44. The coordination of RMR‐funded programs will primarily be based in Guinea. It will take place within the existing donor coordination framework.
45. A consultation and coordination framework between the Government and development partners was established under the Prime Minister's authority, and aims to improve the effectiveness of development actions. The United Nations Resident Coordinator has been designated as the leader for coordination of the Technical and Financial Partners (TFP). The framework includes sub‐groups focusing on core themes, which carry out analyses, diagnoses and formulate proposals aimed at supporting Guinea in achieving the objectives set out in the National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES). The third consultation framework between the government and its financial partners was held in January 2017.
46. A Working Group on improving the absorption of external funding has been established under the coordination of the Prime Minister, with the technical support of the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation. The Working Group’s mandate is to monitor portfolio performance, identify the main constraints to project implementation and suggest mitigation measures. The Working Group is chaired by the Special Adviser to the Prime Minister, and composed of representatives of the Ministries in charge of Planning, Finance, Budget and the Permanent Secretariat of the Consultation and Coordination Framework.
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Annex 7: Guinea IDA Portfolio Performance
Indicator FY15 FY16 FY17
Portfolio assessmentNumber of Projects Under Implementation 9 11 11 Average Implementation Period (years) 3.3 2.1 3.0
Percent of Problem Projects by Number (a) 11.1 9.1 18.2
Percent of Problem Projects by Amount (a) 5.1 5.5 8.8
Percent of Projects at Risk by Number(b) 38.5 30.8 25.0
Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount (b) 24.1 35.1 19.8
Disbursement Ratio 24.4 24.8 24.2
Portfolio ManagementCPPR during the year (yes/no)Supervision resources (total $US)Average supervision ($US/project)
(b) Data from BI reports - problem projects (snapshot)
As of Date 01/22/2018Selected Indicators* of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management
(a) Percent of projects rated U or MU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP)
* All indicators are for projects actvie in the portfolio, w ith exception of Disbursement Ratio, w hich includes all active projects as w ell w hich exited during the f iscal year
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Annex 8: Guinea World Bank Group Portfolio
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Annex 9: Map of Guinea