Psychometric Profiling of Psychometric Profiling of Driver BehaviourDriver Behaviour

Is it any use?Is it any use?

Professor Craig JacksonProfessor Craig Jackson

Prof of Occupational Health PsychologyHead of Psychology

BCU

Research DirectorHealth Research Consultants

OutlineOutline

• History of behavioural profilingHistory of behavioural profiling

• Relative usefulnessRelative usefulness

• Applicability to driver behaviourApplicability to driver behaviour

• Development of a Psychometric ToolDevelopment of a Psychometric Tool

• Behavioural Profiling - observations of Drive-Thrus and unsafe drivingBehavioural Profiling - observations of Drive-Thrus and unsafe driving

• Preliminary Psychometric Profiling ResultsPreliminary Psychometric Profiling Results

• ConclusionsConclusions

Behavioural ProfilingBehavioural Profiling

Offender Profiling generally refers to:Offender Profiling generally refers to:

1. 1. process of using. . . process of using. . .

2. 2. . . .all available information . . . . . .all available information . . .

3. 3. . . . about a crime . . . . . . about a crime . . .

4. 4. . . . a crime scene . . . . . . a crime scene . . .

5. 5. . . . and a victim . . . . . . and a victim . . .

6. 6. . . . to compose a profile of. . . . . . to compose a profile of. . .

7. 7. . . .the (as yet) unknown perpetrator. . .the (as yet) unknown perpetrator

History of Offender ProfilingHistory of Offender Profiling

Origins difficult to pin downOrigins difficult to pin down

Spectrum of offending – from petty through to majorSpectrum of offending – from petty through to major

Established 1970s Established 1970s

FBI’s Behavioural Support Unit (now the Investigative Support Unit)FBI’s Behavioural Support Unit (now the Investigative Support Unit)

““Behavioural Profiles” developed by James Brussel (1956) Behavioural Profiles” developed by James Brussel (1956) in hunt for Con Edison bomber in New Yorkin hunt for Con Edison bomber in New York

Robert Brittain asked by CID to provide behavioural profile of “Bible John” Robert Brittain asked by CID to provide behavioural profile of “Bible John” killer in Glasgow in late 1960skiller in Glasgow in late 1960s

Mechanics of Behavioural ProfilingMechanics of Behavioural Profiling

FBI used extensive interviews with 36 convicted serial killers FBI used extensive interviews with 36 convicted serial killers

Belief that personality of offender could be gleaned from 5 areas:Belief that personality of offender could be gleaned from 5 areas:

1. Crime scene1. Crime scene2. Nature of crimes2. Nature of crimes3. Forensic evidence3. Forensic evidence4. Medical examination of victim4. Medical examination of victim5. Victim characteristics5. Victim characteristics

Useful for deliberate offendingUseful for deliberate offending

How useful for accidents and non-intentional How useful for accidents and non-intentional offences in driving?offences in driving? 1,2,3 and possibly 5 could be of use1,2,3 and possibly 5 could be of use

A note about “offender types”A note about “offender types”

Offender types traditionally split into 2 groups:Offender types traditionally split into 2 groups:

Organised vs DisorganisedOrganised vs Disorganised

Can this be applied to drivers?Can this be applied to drivers?

Personality types:Personality types:

Extravert vs IntrovertExtravert vs Introvert

Sanguine vs Phlegmatic Sanguine vs Phlegmatic

Is Behavioural Profiling Useful?Is Behavioural Profiling Useful?

Limited (if any) successLimited (if any) success

Two criticisms of profiling behaviourTwo criticisms of profiling behaviour

1) Often based on small data numbers / limited samples1) Often based on small data numbers / limited samples

2) Profiles are too vague to be successful / specific2) Profiles are too vague to be successful / specific

The Best Predictor of Future Behaviour is Past BehaviourThe Best Predictor of Future Behaviour is Past Behaviour

Recidivism of Driving ActivityRecidivism of Driving Activity

Example of Profiling and the BTK caseExample of Profiling and the BTK case

Serial killer in Kansas active from 1974 to 2005Serial killer in Kansas active from 1974 to 2005

Murdered 10 people from 1974 – 1991 (caught in 2005)Murdered 10 people from 1974 – 1991 (caught in 2005)

Variety of profiles based on crime scene analysis were summarised as:Variety of profiles based on crime scene analysis were summarised as:

Example of Profiling and the BTK caseExample of Profiling and the BTK case

““Look for an American male with a possible connection to the military. Look for an American male with a possible connection to the military. His IQ will be above 105. He will like to masturbate, and will be aloof and His IQ will be above 105. He will like to masturbate, and will be aloof and selfish in bed. He will drive a decent car. He will be a ‘now’ person. He selfish in bed. He will drive a decent car. He will be a ‘now’ person. He won’t be comfortable with women. But he may have women friends. He won’t be comfortable with women. But he may have women friends. He will be a lone wolf. But he will be able to function in social settings…he will be a lone wolf. But he will be able to function in social settings…he will be either, never married, divorced or married, and if he is married his will be either, never married, divorced or married, and if he is married his wife will be younger or older. He may or may not live in a rental, and wife will be younger or older. He may or may not live in a rental, and might be lower class, upper lower class, lower middle class or middle might be lower class, upper lower class, lower middle class or middle class. And he will be crazy like a fox, as opposed to being mental.”class. And he will be crazy like a fox, as opposed to being mental.”

Gladwell (2007)Gladwell (2007)

Why bother in Profiling unsafe driver Behaviour?Why bother in Profiling unsafe driver Behaviour?

Violent sexual offenders Violent sexual offenders Unsafe driversUnsafe drivers

Rare in populationRare in population Common in populationCommon in population

Covert activityCovert activity Overt activityOvert activity

Rarely occursRarely occurs Commonly occursCommonly occurs

Will always be pursuedWill always be pursued Will often be ignoredWill often be ignored

Severe penalties if caughtSevere penalties if caught Non-severe penaltiesNon-severe penalties

Inconsistent with usual personaInconsistent with usual persona Consistent with usual personaConsistent with usual persona

Culturally vilifiedCulturally vilified Culturally acceptable (some)Culturally acceptable (some)

Easier to measure & profile Unsafe Drivers than Violent Sexual OffendersEasier to measure & profile Unsafe Drivers than Violent Sexual Offenders

Who are the offending drivers?Who are the offending drivers?

Behavioural Profiling and Unsafe DrivingBehavioural Profiling and Unsafe Driving

““Look for a British citizen with an average IQ, although it Look for a British citizen with an average IQ, although it could be substantially higher or lower than average. The could be substantially higher or lower than average. The unsafe driver will be a male or possibly female, who may be unsafe driver will be a male or possibly female, who may be married or un-married, divorced or widowed. He or she may married or un-married, divorced or widowed. He or she may drive a decent car, but it may also be low-end of the market. drive a decent car, but it may also be low-end of the market. The unsafe driver will have a good job, although s/he may be The unsafe driver will have a good job, although s/he may be unemployed or even self-employed… unemployed or even self-employed…

… … they will definitely be driving something with 4 wheels.” they will definitely be driving something with 4 wheels.”

Method Method #1#1 Psychometric Testing of DriversPsychometric Testing of Drivers

Literature review Literature review

Develop pilot surveys (9 versions) measuring variety of factors:Develop pilot surveys (9 versions) measuring variety of factors:e.g. sex, age, mileage, attitudes, personality, risk taking, alertness, e.g. sex, age, mileage, attitudes, personality, risk taking, alertness, health, parental influence, in-car technology, perceived skillshealth, parental influence, in-car technology, perceived skills

Several hundred respondents (non-pro drivers) from varied sampleSeveral hundred respondents (non-pro drivers) from varied sample

Baseline data with Manchester Driver Behaviour questionnaireBaseline data with Manchester Driver Behaviour questionnaire

Find associations with scores on MDBFind associations with scores on MDB

Give weightings to factors associated with good / bad MDB scoresGive weightings to factors associated with good / bad MDB scores

Use traffic light system to suggest need for driver re-trainingUse traffic light system to suggest need for driver re-training

Method Method #2#2 Field ObservationsField Observations

Test principles of behavioural profilingTest principles of behavioural profiling

Can drivers exhibiting unsafe driving behaviours (UDBs) be profiled?Can drivers exhibiting unsafe driving behaviours (UDBs) be profiled?

Several observations in a single fast food chain in UKSeveral observations in a single fast food chain in UKSummertimeSummertimeAll covertAll covertAll without permissionAll without permissionUsed same 2 researchers Used same 2 researchers

Field ObservationsField Observations

Recorded details of all vehicles exiting car park during observations:Recorded details of all vehicles exiting car park during observations:

1. Drive-Thru versus Eat-in customers1. Drive-Thru versus Eat-in customers

2. Vehicle type2. Vehicle type

3. Sex3. Sex

4. Passengers4. Passengers

5. UDBs 5. UDBs eatingeatingdrinkingdrinkingphone usephone useno seatbeltno seatbeltno indicatorsno indicatorspoor traffic entrypoor traffic entry

Field ObservationsField Observations

Field ObservationsField Observations

Field ObservationsField Observations

Remote / Isolated WorkingRemote / Isolated Working

Field operatives Sales DriversField operatives Sales Drivers

Lack of immediate assistance Lack of immediate assistance illnessillness accidents accidents safety safety

Social workersSocial workers JanitorsJanitorsDistrict nursesDistrict nurses DriversDriversFilling stationsFilling stations ShopsShopsHome workersHome workers SecuritySecurityReceptionistsReceptionists TeachersTeachersCleanersCleaners EngineersEngineers

Field Observations - ResultsField Observations - Results

672 vehicles observed672 vehicles observed

402 drive-thru 402 drive-thru 270 eat-in270 eat-in P-P-valuevalue

(59.8%)(59.8%) (40.2%)(40.2%)

EatingEating 23% 23% 0.3% 0.3% 0.000.00DrinkingDrinking 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.000.00Using phoneUsing phone 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.001.00No seatbeltNo seatbelt 11% 11% 7.0% 7.0% 0.080.08No signalsNo signals 71% 71% 65% 65% 0.080.08Entering traffic badlyEntering traffic badly 10.6%10.6% 6.6% 6.6% 0.070.07

Total UDB scoreTotal UDB score 1.25 (±0.7)1.25 (±0.7) 0.82 (±0.6)0.82 (±0.6) 0.000.00

““Unsafe driving” Unsafe driving” 84.8%84.8% 70.7%70.7% 0.000.00““Unsafe driving”* Unsafe driving”* 46.0%46.0% 14.4%14.4% 0.000.00

*ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor *ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor

Field Observations - ResultsField Observations - Results

672 vehicles observed672 vehicles observed

417 Male 417 Male 255 Female255 Female P-valueP-value(62%)(62%) (38%)(38%)

EatingEating 11.9%11.9% 17.2% 17.2% 0.050.05DrinkingDrinking 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 1.001.00Using phoneUsing phone 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 0.900.90No seatbeltNo seatbelt 11.7%11.7% 5.4% 5.4% 0.000.00No signalsNo signals 75% 75% 60% 60% 0.000.00Entering traffic badlyEntering traffic badly 9.5% 9.5% 8.2% 8.2% 0.550.55

Total UDB scoreTotal UDB score 1.25 (±0.7)1.25 (±0.7) 0.82 (±0.6)0.82 (±0.6) 0.000.00

““Unsafe driving” Unsafe driving” 83.4%83.4% 72.1%72.1% 0.000.00““Unsafe driving”* Unsafe driving”* 34.2%34.2% 31.7%31.7% 0.500.50

*ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor *ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor

Field Observations ConclusionsField Observations Conclusions

• All Fast food customers drive fairly poorly upon exitingAll Fast food customers drive fairly poorly upon exiting SignallingSignalling Seatbelt use Seatbelt use Entering traffic Entering traffic

• Eating & Drinking significantly worse in Drive-thru customersEating & Drinking significantly worse in Drive-thru customers

• Phone usePhone use• Seatbelt useSeatbelt use• SignallingSignalling• Traffic entryTraffic entry

78% of Cars were Unsafe78% of Cars were Unsafe 87% of Vans were Unsafe87% of Vans were Unsafe

If producing a gross behavioural profile of unsafe drivers If producing a gross behavioural profile of unsafe drivers based on observations of crime scenes (fast food outlets), based on observations of crime scenes (fast food outlets),

we are looking for . . . .we are looking for . . . .

equally poor between Drive-thru / Eat-in customersequally poor between Drive-thru / Eat-in customers

not sig. different between vehicle types not sig. different between vehicle types

Field Observations ConclusionsField Observations Conclusions

CulpritsCulprits

Love affair with car - food – convenience is increasingLove affair with car - food – convenience is increasing

CulpritsCulprits

ConclusionConclusion

Behavioural Profiling inaccurate, unreliable & subjectiveBehavioural Profiling inaccurate, unreliable & subjective

Psychometric testing more reliablePsychometric testing more reliable

Psychometric testing takes time, patience, & cost to get it rightPsychometric testing takes time, patience, & cost to get it right

• Cheap to administerCheap to administer• Can be computerizedCan be computerized• Easy to complete / self-completionEasy to complete / self-completion• Simple to scoreSimple to score• ObjectiveObjective• Easily comparable Easily comparable