Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, Scott P Carroll,Michael T Kinnison, R Ford Dennison, Bruce Tabashnik, Carl Bergstrom, Sharon Y Strauss,

Peter D Gluckman, Tom B Smith

Applying evolutionary biology to address global challenges

ENVIRONMENTFOOD HEALTH

@ STOCKHOLM RESILIENCE CENTRE, JUNE 23 2014

Personal background– University of Copenhagen, PhD 2014 (defense June 30)

• Center for Macroecology Evolution and Climate

– University of California – Berkeley (2011/12)– University of California – Davis (2008/09)

• Macroecology of environmental change response– Climate change impacts on European and North American breeding

birds– Validating historical inference from present data

• Applied evolutionary biology• Integration of disciplines such as ecology and economics• Co-founder of the International Network of Next-

Generation Ecologists

Outline

• Applied Evolutionary Biology?• Global Evolutionary Challenges• Applied evolutionary biology to address global

challenges

History of a field

• DARWIN AND APPLIED EVOLUTION (1859)• MEDICINE (1970’s,1994)• UNWANTED ANTHROPOGENIC EVOLUTION (2001)• AGRICULTURE (2003)• ENVIRONMENT (2008)

NEW ENEMIES• Antibiotic resistance• Drug resistance• Pesticide resistance

NEW TOOLS • Genetic engineering• Genomics

THE GREAT ACCELERATION

Steffen et al. 2011 AMBIO

Economic costs of inadvertent evolution

Palumbi 2001

Palumbi Science 2001, Cooper and Shlaes Nature 2011

Post antibiotics era in 87 days…?

Nature 472, 32 (07 April 2011)

Cooper and Shlaes Nature 2011

What’s missing

• Dichotomy of applied evolution– Only rapidly evolving species

• Lack of framework for manipulations, solutions?– Narrow solution-oriented focus– Naïve solution context– Ignoring interdependencies linkages between

economic sectors– Socio-economic factors?

Bringing a multidisciplinary team together to build on Palumbi’s landmark

• Heron Island Summit 2010 (vid.)

PENDING FINAL DECISION

Outline of Palumbi +10 years

1. Global challenges2. The conundrum of applied evolutionary biology3. Fundamental manipulations4. Four main-strategies of applied evolutionary biology5. From implementation to prospects6. Addressing evolution across management sectors7. Implementing solutions (through the eyes of

Ostrom)8. Post 2015 agenda

Global challenges

Contemporary evolution in unwanted species• Antibiotic (drug) resistance

– Greatest medicinal challenge• Pesticide resistance

– 11000 cases, 1000 species of insects

Phenotype-environment mismatch in valued species• Chronic human life-style disease

– Such as “type 2” diabetes, estimated ~1% global GDP• Human caused biodiversity decline

– Earth sixth mass extinction

log(generation time)

log(

popu

latio

n si

ze)

Conservation Biology:

CONTEMPORARY EVOLUTION

CropsLivestock

Medicine:Human

epithelia

Medicine:Human

bone marrowAll:

Viral & microbial

pathogens,mutualists,commensal

sAgriculture &

Natural resources:

Multicellularpests,

weeds,invasive species

Medicine:Human neurons

Medicine:Human fat cells

Annual organisms

Trees

All:

Pollinators

Medicine:Humans

PHENOTYPE-ENVIRONMENT

MISMATCH

1) The conundrum of applied evolutionary biology

RECOGNIZING MISMATCH AND CONTEMPORARY EVOLUTION

• ENVIRONMENT

LAGGIN

G

LEADIN

G

RECOGNIZING MISMATCH AND CONTEMPORARY EVOLUTION

• HEALTH

LAGGIN

G

LEADIN

G

RECOGNIZING MISMATCH AND CONTEMPORARY EVOLUTION

• FOOD

LAGGIN

G

LEADIN

G

Genotype Manipulation Developmental Manipulation

PhenotypeDistribution

Genotype Distribution

Optimum Phenotype

Range

a)

b) c) d)

Manipulation of Mismatch

Freq

uenc

y

Trait Value

Mismatch

Environment Manipulation

2) Three fundamental manipulations

3) Four main-strategies of applied evolutionary biology

Control pests, pathogens, invading species by…• …slowing unwanted evolution• …reducing adversary fitnessProtect desirable populations by…• …reducing phenotype environment mismatch• …increasing group performance

Control pests, pathogens, invading species by…

FOOD HEALTH ENVIRONMENT

Protect desirable populations by…

FOOD HEALTH ENVIRONMENT

5) From implementation to prospects

• Environmental alignment to protect valued species

• Genomic manipulation to improve valued species

• Slowing unwanted evolution w/ environmental heterogeneity

• Choosing population sources for translocation and restoration

• Managing group vs. individual fitness for desired outcomes

Implementation stage

Experimental stage

Environmental alignment to secure biodiversity and human health

• In conservation biology and environmental management [Widely implemented]– Management of wild populations– Management of captive populations

• In treatment of human life-style disease [Increasing attention]– Palaeo diet– Genomics– Phenotypic data– Exposome

Environment Manipulation

Altering genomes for improved food security and human health

• Artificial selection, genetic engineering [Widely implemented]– Old art of artificial selection– Genetically engineered crops– Using genetic markers to guide artificial selection– Selection and engineering for drought/flood tolerance

• Gene therapy and genomic replacement in humans [Increasing attention]– Gene therapy – failing to make it into market– Frontiers!? Mt genome replacement and ???

Genotype Manipulation

Using environmental heterogeneity to delay resistance evolution

• The refuge strategy in agricultural biocontrol efforts

• Transfer to marine biodiversity, fisheries, cancer treatment

Gatenby Nature 2009

Choosing population sources to anticipate climate change

• Moving biodiversity prevent future extinctions?

• Review of assisted migration in agriculture, and forestry?

Exploiting group versus individual performance in crops and livestock

• Selecting for cooperative traits– [so far a mainly a prospect]

6) Addressing evolution across management sectors

Interconnected problems

• Emerging diseases– Antibiotic resistance– Flu outbreaks– Wildlife zoonoses

• Agriculture– Pesticides as selective agents in humans and environment– Gene flow / hybridzation with wild species– Conservation of wild crop relatives to maintain

evolutionary potential– Land use conflicts on a crowded planet

7) Implementing solutions in socio-ecological systems

Ostrom Science 2009

Tragedy of commons?

PRONE TO SELF-ORGANIZATION

• Small-scale• Few users• Distinguishable units• Medium productivity• Highly predictable• Low mobility• Small number stakeholders• High reliance• Norms• Leadership• Knowledge

LESS PRONE TO SELF-ORGANIZATION• Large-scale• Many users• Non-visible differences• High-low productivity• Low predictability• Medium-High mobility• Large number of stakeholders• High-medium reliance• Norms?• Leadership?• Knowledge?

REFLECTS MANY CHALLENGES OF APPLIED EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY AND CALLS FOR COMBINED

TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP IMPLEMENTATION

Ostrom Science 2009

8) Applied Evolution &Millennium Development Goals

Strong evolutionary component

•Eradicating extreme poverty and hunger

•Reducing child mortality rates

•Improving maternal health

•Combatting HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

•Ensuring environmental sustainability

POST 2015 AGENDA?(before proposal of 17 SDGs)

Griggs et al. 2013

POST 2015 AGENDA

Griggs et al. 2013

Applied Evolutionary Biology & the Post 2015 agenda?

• Goal 1: Thriving lives and livelihoods• Goal 2: Sustainable food security• Goal 3: Secure sustainable water• Goal 4: Universal clean energy• Goal 5: Healthy and productive ecosystems• Goal 6: Governance for sustainable societies

Goal 1: Thriving lives and livelihoods

• Reduce chronic lifestyle disease through environmental

alignment of human lifestyle.• Reduce environmental levels of human toxicants through

application of reduced selection response techniques* to pesticides/biocides.

• Apply reduced selection response techniques to maintain long-term efficacy of antimicrobials and avert the antibiotics crisis.

• Reconcile individual and group incentives in health systems to reduce virulence and resistance of emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Goal 2: Sustainable food security

• Increase crop yield through continued selection of varieties and improved access to these.

• Prolong efficacy of pesticides and artificially selected or GE crops through reduced selection response techniques.

• Improve yields through integration of group selection in production of novel crop varieties.

• Reduce climate change impact by choosing crop varieties resilient to drought, flooding and other extremes.

Goal 3: Secure sustainable water

• Increase water security through use of reduced selection response techniques to water polluting pesticides/biocides

• Use genetic manipulation to produce crop varieties with improved water economy.

Goal 4: Universal clean energy

• Improve biofuels through genetic manipulation with the aim to reduce CO2 emissions and land area for energy production.

• Assess risks and benefits of synthetic organisms for biofuel production taking taking gene flow, land use and property rights issues into account.

Goal 5: Healthy and productive ecosystems

• Reduce biodiversity extinction rates through environmental alignment and genetic manipulation of fitness.

• Retain naturalness of captive biodiversity through environmental alignment.

• Choose pre-adapted or high diversity sources for increased habitat restoration success.

• Avoid collapse and protect genetic diversity of aquatic resources through non-selective harvesting strategies informed by early warning signals.

Goal 6: Governance for sustainable societies

• Incorporate externalities from rapid evolution as well as the loss of evolutionary history and potential into green accounting for sustainable governance of the earth system.

• Coordinate strategies of SDG’s in a coupled systems framework to reduce conflicts from inadvertent contemporary evolution and phenotype-environment mismatch.

Thank you!