Prtr non point estimate method in japan

Estimating Releases Outside Notification

Yayoi Hayashi

Research Institute for Environmental Strategies, Inc.

2012.7.20

Presentation today

2

1. Overall picture of Estimated Releases Outside Notification

Release Sources Estimated; Overall PictureEstimated Releases; Overall Picture

2. Estimation Techniques; ExamplesGeneral descriptionsPesticidesCarsPaintsHouseholds (detergents; surfactants, insecticides; termite

control agents)Listed Industries under the Reporting ThresholdsVery Brief Notes on Prefectural Distribution

3. SummaryKeys for Estimating Releases

http://ries.co.jp/index.html

◆Release Sources Estimated

1.　 Overall picture

3


◆Estimated Releases

Composition (%) by Release Classification

Source: “PRTR 2010 Data,” MOE & METI


4

Classification

Release

(1,000 t/y)

Compos-ition

Notified 183 40%

Estimated

Listed Industries

47 10%

Non-listed Industries

90 20%

Households 59 13%

Mobile Sources 75 17%

Total 270 60%

Grand Total 453 100%



Grand Total Releases by Prefecture (※)

※ Local government unit



5

0

届出排出量・届出外排出量の合計

( / )単位：トン年

21, 00014, 000 7, 000

Release (t/y)No. Pre-fectures

21,000 or more 2

14,000 - 21,000 10

7,000 - 14,000 11

0 - 7,000 24





6

toluene

xylene

ethylbenzene

poly(oxyethylene)alkyl ether(alkyl C=12-15)

dichloromethane

n-hexane

n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl C=10-14)

chlorodifluoromethane

dichlorobenzene

benzene

0 50 100 150

63

32

14

0

14

13

0

0

0

1

50

45

17

28

2

3

15

14

12

9

Grand Total Top 10 Substances

Notified

Estimated

(113)

(77)

(32)

(9.8)

(28)

(16)

(16)

(15)

(14)

(12)

（） : Grand total releases

（ 1,000 t/y ）



※ carcinogens※ 243 dioxins : mg-TEQ/y Source: “PRTR 2010 Data,” MOE & METI


7

Notified & Estimated Releases for Specific Class I Designated Chemical Substances (※)

PRTR SubstancesNotified（ kg/y）

Estimated（ kg/y） Grand Total（ kg/y）Listed

IndustriesNon-listed Industries

Households Mobile Sources

Total

400 benzene 976,095 131,885 776,822 62,243 7,875,720 8,846,670 9,822,765

411 formaldehyde 384,925 614,900 131,413 94,050 6,793,502 7,633,866 8,018,791

305 lead compounds 3,622,822 63,322 40,166 　　 103,488 3,726,310

351 1,3-butadiene 100,117 111 33,360 76,265 2,230,821 2,340,556 2,440,673

332arsenic and its inorganic compounds

1,150,558 483 　　　 483 1,151,041

309 nickel compounds 498,927 102,241 　　　 102,241 601,168

56 ethylene oxide 243,606 134,688 　　　 134,688 378,293

94 chloroethylene 231,257 1,800 　　　 1,800 233,057

75 cadmium and its compounds 122,543 100 　　　 100 122,643

88 chromium(VI) compounds 9,202 3,750 9,243 　　 12,994 22,196

385 2-bromopropane 5,278 0.2 　　　 0.2 5,278

394 beryllium and its compounds 17 663 　　　 663 680

33 asbestos 0 　　　 70 70 70

397 benzylidyne trichloride 0.1 　　　　 0 0.1

243 dioxins 353,659 34,943 14,824 60 1,000 50,827 404,486

Total 7,345,347 1,053,944 991,005 232,558 16,900,113 19,177,620 26,522,966


◆General descriptions

2.　 Estimation Techniques; Examples

8

Example Method Description

1. Paints Top–down Estimated from national shipment

2. Pesticides Semi-top down Estimated from prefectural shipment

3. Cars (hot start) Semi-bottom up Estimated from traffic volume & emission factor, but only highways are covered (smaller streets are not)

4. Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds

Top-down &Bottom-upCombined

One part estimated from national shipment,Another part estimated from mean amounts of substances handled per business operator

Discussion Points① Two estimation methods

Top-down & Bottom-up




9

Discussion Points

② In general, the results from Top-down method are better in terms of uncertainty = preferred method

Statistics, other data = critical factor

for estimation projects common to all countries

③ When Top-down method is not possible; Bottom-up method can be envisaged through sample surveys

in order to gather emission factors, amounts of substances used, etc. it may be necessary to conduct a new set of survey

specifically for PRTR

④ In addition to ①-③ above; an estimation result needs to be assorted into notified release

& release outside notification, in order to avoid double-counting



<Step 1> Identifying Release Sources to be estimated

-> Estimation by release sources e.g. pesticides, paints, etc. is more effective than estimation by each substance

-> Japanese release sources can be categorized into 3 kinds;


10

Categories Examples of Release Sources

Products containing substances

Pesticides, paints, adhesives, detergents, etc.

Mobile sources Cars, motorbikes, ships, aircrafts, etc.

Others Drinking water (trihalomethane), Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds



<Step 2> Identifying Available Data

-> Necessary to identify available data for each release source-> Existing data in Japan; Examples


11

Release Sources

Examples of Existing Data Data Source

Data based on legal requireme

nt

National

statistics

Business

Associations’

voluntary

survey

Others

Pesticides Shipment (t/y) by pesticide & prefectureActive Substances’ contents (%) by pesticide

“Pesticides Catalogue” (handbook) published by Japan Plant Protection Association

✓

Paints Shipment (t/y) by paint type & applicationStandard chemical contents (%) by paint type & applicationStandard emission rate (%) during painting

Voluntary survey by Japan Paint Manufacturers’ Association ✓

Cars Traffic volume (no. of cars travelled/24h) by highway & its sector

“Road Traffic Census” by MLIT ✓

Emission factor (mg/km-travelled) Research by MOE ✓

Listed Industry under the reporting thresholds

Shipment (t/y) by paint type & application (same as “Paints” above) etc.

Business associations✓

Notified release (kg/y) by business category & substance

“PRTR Data” published by MOE/METI ✓



<Step 2> Identifying Available Data

-> When data sets are not available, it may be necessary to conduct a new set of survey specifically for PRTR


12

Release SourcesExamples of Data

Specifically Collected for PRTR

Data Sources

Termite control agents Volume of substance (kg/y) used for producing the agents

Sample survey with manufacturers by MOE

Railroad (breaking pads’ abrasion etc.)

Number of breaking pads etc. (piece) containing asbestos

Survey with railroad companies by MLIT

Aircrafts Number of landing (time/y) by airport & fleet type

Survey results compiled by business association (Scheduled Airlines Association of Japan)

Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds

Volume of substance (kg/y-business operator) used by application

Sample survey with business operators in all business categories by METI


◆Pesticides

Estimation Overview by Application, Estimation division, corresponding Source Classifications (※)

※ Source Classifications; Listed Industries, Non-listed Industries, Households & Mobile Sources


13

Application

Estimation division

Source Classifications

Listed Industries

Non-listed IndustriesHouse-holdsAgri-

cultureForestr

yService

s

Rice Rice paddies ✓

Fruits Orchards ✓

Vegetables Crop fields ✓

Others

Households ✓

Golf courses ✓

Forestry ✓

Others ✓ ✓


◆Pesticides

Example of Existing Data; Shipment By Pesticide Code & Name

(t/y or kl/y)

Note: Figures are fictitiousSource: “Pesticides Catalogue 2010,” Japan Plant Protection Association


14

Pesticide name

Pesticide A

Pesticide B

Pesticide C

Pesticide D

Pesticide …

Pesticide code 10313 10316 1030 10353 10360

Prefecture

Hokkaido 1.6 4.8 - 98.2 2.6

Aomori 13.7 5.0 - 303.4 0.6

Iwate 2.1 9.5 - 15.7 6.9

…


◆Pesticides

Example of Existing Data; Active Agents, Support Agents by Pesticide Code & Name

Note: Figures are fictitiousSource: “Pesticides Application List 2011,” Japan Plant Protection Association


15

Pesticide code Pesticide name Active agent Support agent

10809 BPMC/MEPEmulsion

MEP (251),BPMC (428) Xylene (80)

22300 thiram/TPN wettable powder

TPN (260),Thiram (268) N.A.

33987 xxxx powder N.A.poly(oxyethylene)alkyl ether(alkyl C=12-15) (407)

44562 xxxx emulsionpendimethalin (49),linuron (174)

Xylene (80), naphthalene (302),Methyl-naphthalene (438)


◆Pesticides

Estimation Flow Chart

※ hatched data are existing data.


16

Content (%) of substance per pesticide

Release (t/y) by substance, prefecture & application

Shipment (t/y) by pesticide, prefecture & application

Composition of used amount (%) by application (rice, fruits, vegetables etc.) per pesticide

Shipment (t/y) by pesticide & prefecture


◆Pesticides

Estimation Result; MEP Composition of Used Amounts (%) by Application



17

Households

Crop fields

Orchards Rice paddies

Others

Hokkaido Aomori

Iwate National


◆Pesticides

Example of Estimation Result; MEP Release (t/y) by Application

Source: “PRTR 2010 Data,” MOE&METI


18

Prefecture

Release (t/y)

Rice paddies

Orchards

Crop fields

Households

Golf courses Forests Others Total

Hokkaido 17 2 11 4 0 0.1 0.2 34

Aomori 4 6 1 0.5 0.001 0 0.02 12

Iwate 4 3 1 1 0.01 0.1 0.1 9

National Total 161 145 74 109 1 9 65 564


◆Cars

Scope of Estimation


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Release Estimation

Combustion EngineHot-start ✓

Cold-start ✓

Evaporation ✓

Abrasion ※ not estimated (necessary data not available)


◆Cars; Hot-start




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Travelled Distance (km/y-car)

Release (kg/y-car) by substance

THC Emission Factor

(mg/km)

Substance/THC Ratio (weight %)

By substance


◆Cars; Hot-start

Example of Existing Data; Emission Factor (mg/km)

Note: Emission factors for gasoline-fueled cars are after adjustment by time & wear-outSource: MOE


21

Travelling speed (km/h) Travelling speed (km/h) TH

C E

mis

sion

Fact

or

(mg/k

m-t

ravelle

d)

Passenger Cars Trucks

TH

C E

mis

sion

Fact

or

(mg/k

m-t

ravelle

d)


◆Cars; Hot-start

Example of Existing Data; Substance/THC Ratio (weight %)

Source: MOE


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Gasoline cars Diesel

passenger cars

Substance/THC Ratio(weight %)

Substance/THC Ratio(weight %)


◆Cars; Hot-start

Example of Existing Data; Average number of cars passed in 24 hours

Note: Figures are fictitious Source: Road Traffic Census


23

HighwayObser-vation Point

Average number of cars passed in 24 hours (weekdays)

Motor-bikes

Passenger cars TrucksTotal CarsPassenger

carsBusses

Light trucks

Heavy trucks

1Chuo Expressway

Point A 740 61,099 1,624 12,827 12,341 87,891

Point B 777 62,858 1,270 13,162 13,042 90,332

… … … … … … …

16National Route 16

Point A 1,614 47,489 624 13,757 20,163 82,033

Point B 1,805 33,238 215 9,774 13,450 56,677

… … … … … … …

20National Route 20

Point A 2,434 25,546 333 9,936 5,034 40,849

Point B 　 22,589 329 7,028 6,454 36,400

… … … … … … … … …


◆Paints

Estimation Overview by Application & corresponding Source Classifications (※)



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Paint Application

Releases Outside Notification

Notified Release

s


Households

BuildingConstruction (excluding building)

Road pavingHousing

Other buildings

Building ✓ ✓

Other construction

✓

Traffic paints ✓

Households ✓

Other applications (e.g. manufacturing)

✓


◆Paints

Example of existing data; National Shipment by Paint type & Application

Note: Figures are fictitious Source: Japan Paint Manufacturers Association


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Paint type

Shipment (t/y)

Building

materials

ShipsCars (new)

Car repai

r

Machinery

Metal produc

t… Total

Solvents

Acrylic Synthetics

Room-temperature

2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125

Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775

Bake & Dry high solid

… … … … … … … 8,992

… … … … … … … … … …

Solution … … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … …

Total 69,680 122,048 192,15926,49

736,551 118,585 … 1,362,939


◆Paints

Example of existing data; Standard Contents of Substances (%) by Paint type

Note: Figures are fictitiousSource: Japan Paint Manufacturers Association


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Paint type

Solvent Plasticizer Pigments Thinner

Subst-

amce A

ubst- amce B

…ubst- amce C

…ubst- amce D

…ubst- amce E

…Dilution Rate

Solvents

Acrylic Synthetics

Room-temperature

3% 11% … 0.5% … 0.2% … 8% … 16%

Bake & Dry 2% 8% … - … 5% … 15% … 25%

Bake &Dry high solid

… … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … … …

Solution … … … … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … … … …


◆Paints

Estimation flow Chart



27

Standard Contents of Substances (%)

by Paint type

Release (t/y) by substance

Emission Rate (%)

National Shipment (t/y) by Paint type &

Application

Use (t/y) by substance


◆ Detergents; Surfactants

Estimation Overview by Application & corresponding Source Classifications (※)



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Application

Releases Outside Notification


Households

Cosmetics ✓

Body soaps ✓

Kitchen detergents etc.

✓

Industrial detergents ✓

Fertilizers ✓


◆ Detergents; Surfactants

Example of existing data; National Shipment of Surfactant (t/y) by Application & Substance

Note: Figures are fictitiousSource: Based on Japan Soap and Detergent Association, and Japan Surfactant Industry Association


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ApplicationSubstance

ASubstanc

e B… Total

Perfume & medical products 113 29 … 6,602

Body soaps 67 5 … 7,745

Kitchen detergents … … … …

Laundry detergents … … … …

Industrial detergents (kitchens) … … … …

Industrial detergents (laundry & house cleaning)

… … … …

Fertilizers … … … …

Others … … … …

Total 54,836 3,747 … 199,575


◆Detergents; Surfactants




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Emission Rate (%)

National Shipment (t/y)

by Application & Substance


◆ Insecticides; Termite Control Agents

Example of Survey; National Shipment of Termite Control Agents (kg/y) by Substance & Application

Note: Figures are fictitiousSource: Based on Survey with members of Japan Termite Control Association


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Substance

Shipment (kg/y)

TotalBusiness use

House-holds

22 5-amino-1-[2,6-dichloro-4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-3-cyano-4-[(trifluoromethyl)sulfinyl]pyrazole

8,599 8,599

30 n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl C=10-14) 1,104 1,104

53 ethylbenzene 16 16

57 ethylene glycol monoethyl ether 546 546

64 2-(4-ethoxyphenyl)-2-methylpropyl 3-phenoxybenzyl ether 3,674 500 4,174

80 xylene 6,116 6,116

… … … …

Total 61,751 49,213 110,964


◆Insecticides; Termite Control Agents


※ hatched data are collected specifically for PRTR.


32


Emission Rate (%)

National Shipment (t/y) by Substance


◆Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds

Scope of Estimation


33

Estimated releases

NotifiedreleasesA

mount

handle

d p

er

year

per

busi

ness

opera

tor

1t (0.5t)

21 Number of workersper business operator



Estimation Method


34

2 Approaches Combined

I. Estimation By Release Sources

Focus on End Products (paints, adhesives, etc.)

Statistics on shipments are available

II. Estimation Based On Average Amounts Of Substances Handled

Focus on Average Amount of Substances Handled

Data by industry & by substance are specifically collected for PRTR

※ Releases overlapping 1. above will be subtracted later-on



Estimation Method I. Release Sources


35

Release Sources Descriptions

1. Paints Solvents used in paints painted on industrial products, thinner

2. Adhesives Solvents used in adhesives for industrial products, pressure-sensitive tapes, sheets, etc.

3. Printing inks Solvents used in printing inks for industrial products, thinners

4. Industrial cleaners Industrial cleaning solvents, dry-cleaning solvents, etc.

5. Rubber glues Solvents used in adhesives for industrial rubber products

6. Fuel evaporation Vapor loss at gas stations

7. Chemical feedstock Feedstock, reaction solvent

8. Removers Paint removers

9. Sterilizer, disinfectants Chemical agents to remove microbes

10. Surface finishers Acid agents to clean metal surface etc.

…




Release (t/y) from business operators < thresholds※ Under-thresholds ratio (%) = -------------------------------------------- Release (t/y) from all business operators


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Releases from business operators < thresholds (kg/y)

in Industry A

= Release from Industry A (kg/y)

…(1)

x Under-thresholds ratio (%) (※)

…(2)




Ex. Paints; Flow chart (1) Release from Industry A


37

Paint type

Shipment (t/y)

Building material

s

ShipsCars (new)

Car repair

Machinery

Metal product

… Total

Solvents

Acrylic Synthetics

Room-temperature

2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125

Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775

Bake & Dry high solid

… … … … … … … 8,992

… … … … … … … … … …

Solution

… … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … …

Total 69,680 122,048192,15

926,497 36,551 118,585 … 1,362,939

Standard Contents of Substance (%) by

Paint typeIn Automobile

Industry

Release (t/y) by substanceIn Automobile Industry

Emission Rate (%)In Automobile

Industry

National Shipment (t/y) by Paint typeIn Automobile

Industry

Use (t/y) by substance

In Automobile Industry

Business Category using Paints e.g. “Cars (new)” => Listed Industry e.g.

Automobile Industry




Ex. Paints; Flow chart (2) under-thresholds ratio

※ are existing data※ are data specifically collected for PRTR


38

Release (t/y) by substanceIn Industry A

Under-thresholds ratio (%)In Industry A

Release (t/y) of business operators < thresholds by

substanceIn Industry A

Data on number of workersIn Industry A

Data on standard amounts of substances handled per

yearIn Industry A (1)




Ex. Paints; Flow chart (2) under-thresholds ratio

Estimated releases

NotifiedreleasesA

mount

handle

d p

er

year

q = 1t (0.5t)

p = 21


39

Parameters

p q

Workers < 21 Handled amount < 1t (0.5t)

E1 = A×p×（ 1-q）E2 = A×q A: Release from Industry A

Number of workers

Estimated releases 1 (E1)

Estimated releases 2 (E2)

Release from Industry A


◆ Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds

Estimation Method I. Release Sources (2) under-thresholds ratio

2 Data sets used to determine p & q parameters


40

p q

Workers < 21 Handled amount < 1t (0.5t)

“Economic Census” & other statistics concerning number of workers per business operator

Sample survey with business operators in all business categories, specifically conducted for PRTR




Data sets used to determine p; Economic Census

Source: “Economic Census 2009”


41




Data sets used to determine p; Economic Census

Source: “Economic Census 2009”


42




Data sets used to determine q; Sample survey with business operators (Substance A)

Source: Based on Sample survey with business operators


43

Rank Handle per Year

Total Release per Year1 2 3 4

Chemical Industry Metal/Machinery Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Non-

Manufacturing

kg/y Contribut-ion kg/y Contribut-

ion kg/y Contribut-ion kg/y Contribut-

ion1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3%2 100～ 500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5%3 500kg～ 1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0%

4 1～ 10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2%

5 10～ 100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7% 　　6 100～ 1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3% 　　7 1,000～ 10,000t 51,832 11.5% 　　　　　　8 10,000 ～ 100,000t

9 100,000t or more

Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%




Data sets used to determine q; Sample survey with business operators (Substance A)

Source: Based on Sample survey with business operators


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Rank Handle per Year

Total Release per Year1 2 3 4

Chemical Industry Metal/Machinery Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Non-

Manufacturing

kg/y Contribut-ion kg/y Contribut-

ion kg/y Contribut-ion kg/y Contribut-

ion1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3%2 100～ 500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5%3 500kg～ 1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0%

4 1～ 10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2%

5 10～ 100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7% 　　6 100～ 1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3% 　　7 1,000～ 10,000t 51,832 11.5% 　　　　　　8 10,000 ～ 100,000t

9 100,000t or more

Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%



Estimation Method II. Estimation Based On Average Amounts Of Substances Handled

Examples of Substances estimated


45

PRTR Substance Main Application

20 2-aminoethanol Detergents

31 antimony and its compounds Flame retardants

127 chloroform Sterilizers

133 2-ethoxyethyl acetateSolvents for paints, inks, etc.

…



Estimation Method II. Estimation Based On Average Amounts Of Substances Handled


※ are existing data※ are data specifically collected for PRTR


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No. of business operators < thresholds by substance

In Industry A

Standard release (kg/y) per Substance

In Industry A

Release (t/y) of business operators < thresholds by

substanceIn Industry A

Data on standard amounts of substances handled per

yearIn Industry A

※ same as Sample Survey

Emission Rate (%) per Substance

In Industry A※ same as Sample Survey

No. of business operators In Industry A

※ same as “Economic Census”

Rate (%) of business operators by substance

In Industry A※ same as Sample Survey

No. of business operators which notified PRTR release

by substanceIn Industry A※ PRTR data


◆Very Brief Notes on Prefectural Distribution


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3 patterns for distribution

① Releases are proportional to industrial activities Distribution index based on economic data (e.g. Economic Census,

PRTR Notification Data) Ex. Listed Industries < thresholds, Paints etc. (excluding releases from

households)

② Releases are proportional to population or households Distribution index based on population data (e.g. Population Census)

Ex. Paints, Insecticides, etc. (only releases from households)

③ Releases are proportional to other index Distribution index based on other data (e.g. distance travelled by car,

number of breaking pads) Ex. Cars, Railroad Wagons, etc.

④ Estimation made at the prefecture level Ex. Pesticides, Aircrafts, etc.


3.　 Summary

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Keys for Estimating Releases

① Shared interests among stakeholders regarding the target release sources & substances

Stakeholders include the regulators and regulated alike

The interests in estimating which substances and which release sources are commonly shared

② Availability of statistics and other data

Data include national statistics on business and population, as well as the data from the business associations

③ Close collaboration with business associations and inter-ministerial cooperation

Especially conducting surveys with enterprises

Data and statistics may be available from MLIT etc.


☺ Presentation materials are also available in electric forms

☺ Your enquiries are welcome at…

Yayoi Hayashi, Research Division<[email protected]>

Thank you for listening

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Prtr non point estimate method in japan

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