PRTC Long Range Bus Plan Preparation Invitation for Community Involvement Presented by Alfred Harf...

PRTC Long Range Bus Plan Preparation

Invitation for Community Involvement

Presented by

Alfred HarfPRTC Executive Director

December 2006

2

Presentation Overview

• Introduction and Background 20 minutes

• Review of Potential Scenarios 25 minutes

• Open Discussion and Wrap-Up 30 minutes

3

Why Produce Such A Plan?

• Continuing population (and employment) growth

• Conditions (in addition to growth) that are prompting more transit service requests– Mounting traffic congestion– Higher costs of automotive use– Growing incidence of people for whom driving is

difficult or impossible

• Long lead times for service expansion– Funding– Equipment acquisition– Facility expansion as required

4

Greater Prince William Area Population Trends 2000-2030

• Greater Prince William County area is currently one of the fastest growing in the region

• Expected to continue, though local government policy decisions can influence magnitude to some degree

326,700

615,000

582,800

547,200

519,500

470,400403,600

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Note: Metropolitan Washington COG, Round 7.0 Cooperative Land Use Forecasts - Prince William County and Cities of Manassas & Manassas Park Combined

5

Traffic Congestion

• More wasted time -- on average, a motorist in the region now endures 69 hours of traffic delays a year (up from 51 hours ten years ago).*

• Traffic growing faster than roadway network -- by 2030, daily vehicle miles traveled in region projected to increase 37%, while only 16% more freeway and arterial lane miles will be constructed.**

* Texas Transportation Institute, 2005 Mobility Study

** Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, Constrained Long Range Plan

6

Higher Costs of Auto Use

Source: American Automobile Association (AAA), assuming 15,000 miles per year,Average Gasoline Cost per gallon: $2.40 in 2005.

Composite Average Total Cost Per Mile

49.156.1

42.6

33

23.221.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Cost

(cent

s)

7

Growing Number of People For Whom Driving Is Difficult / Impossible

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2000 2010 2020 2030

Projected Elderly Population in Greater Prince William County

(65 years +)

Source: Northern Virginia Transportation Commission – “Senior Mobility Study”, March 2006

• More seniors will live in area -- 429% more by 2030.

• Seniors as a percentage of area population – also expected to grow --18% by 2030 (was 8% in 2000).

8

Lead Times• Funding

– Fares cover only portion of transit operating expense and none of capital expense

– Required subsidies take years to arrange

• Equipment– Typically two years to acquire at minimum

• Facility expansion– Several years to design and construct

9

What’s Our Starting Point? Unprecedented growth over past few years

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

Existing maintenance facility near capacity

• Short term plan to expand existing facility over next two years• “Buys room” for next five years of growth

• Longer term need for 2nd maintenance facility – planning has started

Average Daily Passengers

75

80

85

90

95

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

Active Bus Fleet

10

Long Range Plan Preparation – PRTC Board’s Direction

11

PRTC Long Range Plan – Background

• In 2005, the PRTC Board endorsed the development of a long range plan to:

– Identify a preferred service policy or set of policies to guide the provision of transit services over 25 years

– Evaluate the potential cost of implementing such policies

– Balance what’s desired and what’s affordable

– Identify traditional funding sources that can support the plan and supplemental funding required to fully fund it

– Craft a transit proffer proposal for consideration by Prince William County in the context of the comprehensive plan and proffer policy

• Authorized retention of consulting firm (HNTB) to assist in the effort

12

What the 2030 Plan is:

A policy guide for bus service expansion A set of estimated costs and ridership

associated with bus service expansion Estimates of traditional funding levels from federal, state, and local sources to defray a portion of bus service expansion costs

Estimates of resultant funding shortfall

A proposed proffer policy amendment to address the capital funding shortfall (County-based)

What the 2030 Plan is not:

A commitment to implement -- such decisions are made as part of annual budget process

A fully detailed description of routing or schedules of each new bus service

A commitment to the adoption of the proposed proffer policy amendment – the Prince William County Board of Supervisors will choose whether or not to adopt

Long Range Plan Overview

13

Where we are now in the plan development process

Work on Plan Began

Focus Groups convened to gather perceptions of PRTC services now and into the future

Developed alternatives for analysis

Analysis underway

Holding public hearing to invite reactions to alternative scenarios

Finish analysis/evaluation accounting for public reaction, cost/benefit analysis, and financial feasibility

Develop proposed proffer policy

PRTC Board Endorsement of RecommendationsSpring/Summer

2007

Winter 2006/07

Summer 2005

Fall 2005

Winter 2005/06

Summer/Fall 2006

14

Scenario Overview

# 1

# 2

# 3

# 4

Which direction should PRTC take between now and

2030?

Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3

Scenario # 4

Maintain existing service quality goals / policies – service expanded only to the degree that developing areas attain development densities comparable to existing service areas

Expanded services to achieve high-end service quality goals / policies and accommodate growth

Expanded services wherever projected volumes of transit travel exceed a stated threshold

Variation on Scenario # 2 so expanded services confined to more limited service quality goals / policies coupled with growth

15

Service Quality Policy Objectives (Scenarios 2 & 4) – How Are They Defined?

16

• Policies Are:– Drawn from the Transit Capacity and Quality of

Service Manual* (“the Manual”)

Nationally recognized manual providing “consistent set of techniques for evaluating transit quality of service and capacity”

– Measurement factors have set of quality standards (graded “A” [best] through “F” [worst]) so standards can be locally chosen as stated goal / policy

• Only measurement factors suited for long-range plan are used

* Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 100, Transportation Research Board; 2003

17

Measurement Factors

As defined by Manual

• Service frequency

• Duration (hours of service)

• Service coverage (area)

• Passenger demand vs. capacity (load factor)

• On—time performance

• Transit – auto travel time difference

CommuterService

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

LocalService

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

Appropriate for Long-Range Planning?

18

Putting Service Quality In Perspective – What Are Our Existing Policies?

(continued in Scenario One in areas warranting service)

Service Type Service Frequency

Service Duration

Service Coverage

Service Capacity

OmniRide/Metro Direct

1-4 trips/hour (peak)Single mid-day trip on OmniRide

1 trip/hour (Metro-Direct off-peak)

5 hrs/day(OmniRide)

11 hrs/day(Metro-Direct)

50-60% coverage of transit supportive activity centers

No Standees

OmniLink 1-2 trips/hour (peak)

1 trip/hour (off-peak)

14-16 hours/day

80-90% coverage of transit supportive residential areas

Standees Permissible

19

Scenario Two Service Quality Goals/Policies

Service Type Service Frequency Service Duration Service Coverage Service Capacity

OmniRide • Minimum of 3 trips/hour

in weekday peak• 1 Trip/hour in weekday

off-peak• No Weekend Service

Minimum of

14 hours/day

50% of transit supportive

activity centers served

(areas with more than 4

jobs/acre)

No Standees

Metro-Direct • Minimum of 2 trips/hour

in weekday peak• 1 trip/hour in weekday

off-peak• 1 trip/hour on Saturdays

Minimum of

17 hours/day

No Change Standees Permissible

OmniLink • Minimum of 4 trips/hour

in weekday peak• 2 trips/hour in weekday

off- peak• 1 trip/hour on Saturdays

Minimum of 14

hours/day

80% of “transit supportive residential areas served (areas with more than 3 dwellings/acre)


20

Scenario Three Service Quality Thresholds

Service Type Threshold

OmniRide Estimated Minimum of 100 Riders

Metro-Direct Estimated Minimum of 100 Riders

OmniLink Estimated Minimum of 100 Riders

21

Scenario Four Service Quality Goals/Policies


OmniRide • Minimum of 4 trips

in weekday peak (~2 /hr)• Single mid-day weekday

trip• No Weekend Service

Minimum of 14 hours/day

50% of transit supportive activity centers served (areas with more than 4 jobs/acre)

No Standees

Metro-Direct • Minimum of 1 trips/hour in

weekday peak period (one

every 45 min if

demand exceeds 150

riders/day)• 1 trip/hour in weekday

off-peak• 1 trip/hour on Saturdays if

demand exceeds 500

riders/weekday)

• Minimum of 17 hours/day

• 12 hours/day - Saturday

No Change Standees Permissible

22

Scenario Four Service Quality Goals/Policies(continued)


OmniLink • Minimum of 1 trip/hour on

weekdays• If more than 15

riders/hour– 2 trips/hour on weekdays– Saturday service every 90

minutes

• If more than 20

riders/hour– 3 trips/hour on weekdays– 1 trip/hour on Saturdays– Sunday service every 90

minutes

• If more than 30

riders/hour– 3 trips/hour on weekdays– Saturday service every 45

minutes– Sunday service every 60

minutes

Minimum of

14 hours/day

80% of transit supportive

activity centers served

(areas with more than 4

jobs/acre)


23

Scenario # 1 – “Maintain Existing Service Policies”Expected Expansion through 2030

Tyson’s Corner

DC

Eisenhower Ave.

Fort Belvoir

OmniRide

OmniLink

Manassas Area

Woodbridge

Quantico

Georgetown

Bailey’s Crossroads / Skyline

Dale City

Montclair

Gainesville/ Haymarket / Innovation

M W

Origin Points Legend

Gainesville/ Haymarket - G

Manassas Area – M

Woodbridge/Lake Ridge Area – W

W

W

Lake Ridge W

M W G

Dulles Area

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:I-66.svg



24

Scenario # 2 – “High End Service Quality Goals/Policies”

New Bus Service Expansion Areas in 2030

Tyson’s CornerDistrict of Columbia

Alexandria Area

Fort Belvoir

OmniRide

OmniLink

Manassas Area

Woodbridge

Quantico

Dulles Corner Herndon – Reston Area

Bailey’s Crossroads / Skyline

Ballston/Rosslyn Area


Dale City

Lake Ridge


Dale City – DC


Manassas Area – M

Montclair – MT


DC

M

Montclair

MT

M

MT W M

DC

W

MT W

M DC

DC MT W




25

Scenario # 3 – “Service wherever specified ridership thresholds are exceeded”


Tyson’s Corner

OmniRide

OmniLink

Dulles Area

Manassas Area

Woodbridge

Quantico

Reston


Dale City

Fort Belvoir/ EPG

G

G

M


Central County - CC

Dale City – DC


Manassas Area – M


M

M

Lake Ridge

DC W

CC

W

W

W

AlexandriaFairfax City

Central County

Montclair

District of Columbia




26

Scenario # 4 – “More Modest Service Quality Goals/Policies”


Tyson’s Corner

Alexandria

Fort Belvoir/ EPG

OmniRide

OmniLink

Springfield Area

Dulles Area

Manassas Area

Woodbridge

Quantico

Lake Ridge

Dale City

Central County

CC

Ballston Area

Montclair

Innovation

CC

W

W DC

CC M

M

M G

G


Central County - CC

Dale City – DC


Manassas Area – M


District of Columbia

Herndon – Reston Area




27

Resultant Service Levels* for Scenarios

OmniRide/Metro Direct

OmniLink Total Increase vs.2005

Existing Conditions

(2005)70,439 49,556 119,995 N/A

Scenario 1(2030) 113,407 67,396 180,803 151%

Scenario 2(2030) 330,741 223,934 554,675 462%

Scenario 3(2030) 99,917 114,604 214,521 179%

Scenario 4(2030) 115,115 172,356 287,471 240%

* Annual bus revenue hours

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Next Steps• Conclude analysis/evaluation, readying draft

recommendations based on: Public reactions Comparative costs and benefits Member governments’ reactions

• Invite public reactions to draft recommendations and then finalize

• Seek PRTC Board Adoption

• Seek member governments’ sponsorship of new/expanded services over time

29

Your Turn – Which Path Should PRTC Take?

Scenario # 1

OR

Scenario # 2

OR

Scenario # 3

OR

Scenario # 4

OR

Other

Between now and 2030

PRTC Long Range Bus Plan Preparation Invitation for Community Involvement Presented by Alfred Harf...

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