Provoked The changing state of 50 Hopeful public debate on · 2016. 11. 28. · 1. Yes, we can move...

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Thechangingstateofpublicdebateondevelopment?

JennifervanHeerde-HudsonDavidHudson

2016AnnualMeetingoftheOECDDevelopmentCommunicationNetwork(DevCom)

Paris,9-10November2016

1.AAT• Data&design• Keyfindings

2.SDGs• Awareness• Attainability&importance

• Canwemovepeople?

3.Refugeecrisis• Whatdopeoplesay,think&feel

• Opportunityorrisk?

4.Keyinsights• 6thingsweknowaboutbuildingpublicsupportfordevelopment

53%47% 48% 50% 53% 52%

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regardé les actualités discuté avec des amis partagé un article interagi avec une communauté rédigé un blog utilisé votre voix

utilisé des outils en ligne donné de l'argent récolté de l'argent bénévole en France bénévole à l'étranger acheté ou boycotté des produits

voté organisé une communauté mettre en place une organisation contacté un parlementaire contacté un parlementaire en ligne participé à une marche

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vagues

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18 actions analysées par l'Aid Attitudes Tracker entre 2013−2016

KnowledgeoftheSDGs/GlobalGoals

DatafromNov-Dec2015.Questionsbeingre-runthisNovandDec

© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 12

HUNGER & POVERTY GOALS ARE SEEN TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT, BUT NOT ATTAINABLE BY 2030

QSDG3. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to cover a broad range of issues. Which do you think are most important for improving the quality of life for people around the world? QSDG4-20. Do you think each of the following will or will not be achieved by 2030?

End hunger

Management of water/sanitation

US Engaged Public

Attainable by 2030

SD

G Im

porta

nce End poverty

Ensure healthy lives

Equitable quality education

Gender equality

Sustainable economic growthCombat climate change

Promote peaceful societiesAffordable/sustainable energy

Reduce inequalityBuild resilient infrastructure

Global partnerships

Conserve the oceans Ensure sustainable consumption

Preserving terrestrial ecosystemsMake cities inclusive

*Vertical gridline is the average importance of the SDG; horizontal gridline is the average perceived likelihood that an SDG will be achieved by 2030

“Understandandlistentoyouraudiences”

• Peopleareinherentlysceptical(c.40%);notnecessarilyopposed(30%)• Weneedtostartfromwherepeopleareat,i.e.whattheybelievetobeimportantandattainable• Butwedon’tneedtolimitourselvestothat– thereisaroleforpreference-shapingaswellaspreference-takingcomms• Goodcomms andgoodprogrammingarenotnecessarilyaligned– soweshouldbecarefulaboutnotunderminingprogrammingwithunrealisticrepresentationsofdevelopment• Thereisspaceforsomemore‘grown-upconversations’aboutdevelopmentwiththepublic

Canwemovepeople?

TheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsaretargetstobemetby2030thatwilladdresstheworld’smostimportantchallenges,includingendingpovertyandhunger,improvinghealthandeducationandcombatingclimatechange.

Inpractice,doyouthinktheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsgenerallywillorwillnotbeachieved?

• Willbeachievedby2030• Willbeachievedbutlaterthan2030• Willnotbeachieved• Don’tknow

• Samplesplitinto5groups,1controlgroupthatreceivedtheabovestatementand4othersthatweretoldaboutMDGsuccessorfailureandwhatwasachievedorhowfarisstilltogo

Canwemovepeople?

Valence

Negative☹ Positive😀

Progress

Failure✘ ✘☹ ✘😀

Success✔ ✔☹ ✔😀

1. Yes,wecanmovepeople• Wecanreducetheir

beliefthattheSDGsareunattainable

• Butthisdoesn’tchangepeople’smindsaboutwhethertheSDGsareagoodorbadidea

2. Someinformation– evenwhenbad– doesn’tappeartodamagepublicperceptions

3. Itisproofofsuccessthatsignificantlyreducespeople’sbeliefthattheSDGscannotbeachieved

Canwemovepeople?

1. Yes,wecanmovepeople.• Wecanreducetheir

beliefthattheSDGsareunattainable

• Butthisdoesn’tchangepeople’smindsaboutwhethertheSDGsareagoodorbadidea

2. Someinformation– evenwhenbad– doesn’tappeartodamagepublicperceptions

3. Itisproofofsuccessthatsignificantlyreducespeople’sbeliefthattheSDGscannotbeachieved

Canwemovepeople?

Thinkingaboutrefugeescomingto[country],whatdoyoupersonallythinkshouldbedonetostoprefugeesfromcominghere,ifanything?

Sowhatdopeoplesay?

countribetter

stayhome

world

aid place

reasonextern

syria

tricondit alreadi

financi want

ensureveryth

can

build

human

govern intern

land

local

nation

polit

eus

strict

understand

action

muslim

away

terrorist

madeshutorder

call

especimeasur

riskalon

accommod

feel

futur

rebuild

involv

mediterranean

stabilrussia

next

refug

sea

prohibit

necessari

althoughtroubl

apart

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miseriworth

rich easilinegoti

select

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citi

littl

space

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win

dark

refugecomeneed

prevent

peopl

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get

thinkwill

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makepeopl

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migrant

need

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think

like

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britain

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want

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payetc

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take

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requir money

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seek

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polici

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0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Proportion of topics

Expected Topic Proportions

Topic 1: Development

Topic 7: EU solution

Topic 4: Remove incentives to migrate

Topic 6: Tackle war

Topic 2: Accept refugees

Topic 5: Stronger borders

Topic 3: Tougher domestic laws

Sowhatdopeoplesay?

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Topic 1: Development

●Denmark

●Finland

●France

●Germany

●UK

●Norway

●Sweden

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Topic 2: Accept refugees

●Denmark

●Finland

●France

●Germany

●UK

●Norway

●Sweden

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Topic 3: Tougher domestic laws

●Denmark

●Finland

●France

●Germany

●UK

●Norway

●Sweden

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Topic 4: Remove incentives to migrate

●Denmark

●Finland

●France

●Germany

●UK

●Norway

●Sweden

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Topic 5: Stronger borders

●Denmark

●Finland

●France

●Germany

●UK

●Norway

●Sweden

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Topic 6: Tackle war

●Denmark

●Finland

●France

●Germany

●UK

●Norway

●Sweden

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Topic 7: Regional solution

●Denmark

●Finland

●France

●Germany

●UK

●Norway

●Sweden

Proportionoftopicsbycountry

1

−0.55

−0.7

−0.59

0.79

0.82

−0.45

−0.55

1

−0.06

0.55

−0.47

−0.36

0.38

−0.7

−0.06

1

0.11

−0.57

−0.61

−0.08

−0.59

0.55

0.11

1

−0.32

−0.54

0.14

0.79

−0.47

−0.57

−0.32

1

0.3

−0.41

0.82

−0.36

−0.61

−0.54

0.3

1

−0.34

−0.45

0.38

−0.08

0.14

−0.41

−0.34

1

Development

Accept refugees

Tougher domestic laws

Remove incentives to migrate

Stronger borders

Tackle war

Regional solution

Dev

elop

men

t

Acce

pt re

fuge

es

Toug

her d

omes

tic la

ws

Rem

ove

ince

ntive

s to

mig

rate

Stro

nger

bor

ders

Tack

le w

ar

Reg

iona

l sol

utio

n

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

PearsonCorrelation

Correlationsbetweentopics Peoplewhotalkaboutdevelopmentalsotalkabouttheimportanceofstrongerborders

Peoplewhoargueweshouldacceptrefugees,tendnottotalkaboutdevelopment(it’snegativelycorrelatedwithdevelopment)

Whenthinkingaboutrefugeesandimmigrationitisapparentthatdevelopmentisframedinanegativeordefensiveway,i.e.aboutkeepingpeoplethere

Comms insights:• Weshouldbeverycautiousabout

linkingdevelopmentandmigration• Thereisarealriskofactivating

exclusionaryframes

Thefourcountrieshaveadifferentsetofconcerns

FR– unemploymentisthemostimportantproblem,followedbyterrorism/ISIS

DE– theSyrianrefugeecrisisinEurope,terrorismandISISareGermans’topissues

UK– membershipintheEUandimmigrationdominate

US– amorediversesetofconcerns,buttheeconomy,inequalityandISISarekeyissues

Comms insights:• the‘space’tocommunicateistight• needtoacknowledgewider,serious&

emotionalconcerns

Attitudestowardsrefugees

• Forthepasttwowaveswe’vebeentrackingpublicattitudestowardstherefugeecrisis• Acrossthefourcountries,andwaveonwave,thereisremarkableconsistencyinattitudes• Amajorityseerefugeesasoverwhelmingpublicservices(73%DE);enteringthecountryposingasterrorists(78%DE);andthreatencultureandtraditions(53%GB)• Fewseerefugeesasstrengtheningtheeconomy(21%DE)orimprovingthecountry’sstandingintheworld(26%DE)• Mostsupportisseenforstatementthatthereisa‘moralobligationtoletrefugeescomeandliveincountry’(32%DE)

Which,ifany,ofthefollowingwordsdescribeyourfeelingsaboutthenumberofimmigrantscomingto[country]?

Istherespacetotalkaboutaid/povertyandmigration/security– anddowewantto?• Acontradictionwedon’tyetunderstand…• Peopleareconcernedaboutmigrationandsecurityandtheyappeartobeadvocatingsolutionstoissuesthatkeepmigrants/issues‘overthere’ratherthan‘overhere’• However,todate,we’veseenlittleevidencethatnationalinterestargumentsresonatewiththepublicasajustificationforgivingaid• BritishYouGov survey(Aug2016)foundthatamajoritysupport(60%)givingaidbasedonneedratherthantradedeals

• Wefindmoreevidenceforgivingaidbasedonmoralsentimentsor‘kindness’• Islackofevidenceforaidinthenationalinterestbecausewehaven’tcommunicateditproperly– and– ifwedo,canweeffectivelymanagetherisks?

6keyinsightsforcommunications

1.Positivedriversof(behaviouralengagement)withglobalpoverty• Socialnorms• Canmakeadifferenceasanindividual• Politicalefficacy• Politicalinterest

2.Knowledgeisn’ttheanswer– increasingknowledgelevelsdoesn'tincreasesupportforaid• Stayawayfrombignumbers(millionsandbillionsisalottoanyone)• Don’tmessageonaidvolumes– tellstoriesofimpact,effectiveness,returns

Aspeoplebecomepoliticallyinterested&motivatedtheybecomemoreengaged

Keyinsights(cont.)

3.Don’tavoidtheelephantintheroom– corruption• Talkingaboutanti-corruptioneffortsreversesthenegativeimpactofmentioningcorruptioninthefirstplace,especiallyforsceptics

• Keymessage:‘Aidworksdespitecorruption’4.Messengers• Frontlineworkers(doctors/nurses)andvolunteersworkwellforallaudiences• Businesspeopledon’tworkatall(evenforcentre-rightaudiences);inspirationalmessengers(i.e.Malala)andphilanthropistsonlyworkforengagedaudiences• Caringforothersandrelatability arethetwomostimportanttraitsformessengerstohave

Keyinsights(cont.)

5. Charitybeginsathome…• Evenwithgreaterreturnsonspendingoverseas,peoplestillprefermoneytobespentathome

• But,ifyoutellpeoplemoneyisalreadybeingspentoverseas,theyaremuchlesslikelytowanttospenditathome

6.Supportisshallowandmaybelowerthanpreviouslythought• Concernhasnotbeen– andisnot– ashighaswehavethought• Onlinemethods– asusedinAAT– show20%fewersaytheyareconcerned(vs.face-to-faceformat)

FollowingAATresearch&insights

RegularAAT Pulse newsletter6timesayearAATwebsiteindevelopment

IfyouwantaccesstoeithernewsletterorwebsitepleaseemailWillTuckerwill@willtuckerconsulting.com

[email protected]@ucl.ac.uk

The Aid Attitudes Tracker Pulse

Issue 13July2016

The Aid Attitudes Tracker (AAT) is a large (c. 8,000) sample longitudinal survey, that has been tracking the GB public’s attitudes towards international aid and development issues twice a year since 2013.

High levels of concern about the impact of refugees in Britain

F O C U SIn this Pulse we focus upon attitudes towards refugees and share some ideas for how organisations’ can engage the public with refugee and migration issues.

S U M M A R Y

There is widespread concern among the British public about the negative impact that refugees may have on their lives or to Britain more generally. Only a small percentage of the population recognise the positive contributions which refugees can make to the UK. The message that ‘lands’ best with audiences is that we have a moral obligation to let refugees in. But this is still a minority view. Concern about the impact that refugees could have is not a fringe issue, nor is it exclusively held by those on the political right or opponents of aid. We must communicate with supporters and potential supporters by acknowledging these concerns. The group that do most consistently hold more favourable views towards the impact of refugees on the UK are young people (18–24s).

In Wave 5, we probed respondents on seven key questions. There is a widely shared belief that refugees from countries like Syria, Iraq and Libya will have a negative impact on the UK:

71% believe that allowing large numbers of refugees to come to Britain threatens to overwhelm public services.

56% believe that allowing large numbers of refugees to come to Britain threatens British culture.

72% believe that there is a real danger that terrorists will enter Britain posing as refugees.

Fewer people agree that allowing refugees from countries like Syria, Iraq and Libya into Britain will benefit the country:

18% believe that allowing refugees in will help strengthen the economy.

17% believe that allowing refugees in will improve the UK’s standing in the world.

25% believe that overseas aid for humanitarian emergencies helps to reduce immigration to Britain.

1 / 3

Photo: DFID Flickr, Rachel Unkovic, International Rescue Committee

Appendix

AidAttitudesTracker– Methodology

• TheAidAttitudesTracker(2013-2018)isanationally-representativesurveyconductedonline,twice-annuallyintheUS,UK,FranceandGermanyfundedbytheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation• FieldworkisprovidedbyYouGov.Finaldataarethenstatisticallyweightedtothenationalprofileofalladultsaged18+(includingpeoplewithoutinternetaccess),age,gender,socialclass,region,levelofeducation,howrespondentsvotedatthepreviouselectionandlevelofpoliticalinterest• Samplesizesacrossthewavesaverageabout6,000-8,000whichenablesustodrilldowninmoredetailintocertaindemographicswithoutlosingtoomuchtomarginoferror• ThesurveyisdesignedbyacademicsatUniversityCollegeLondonandUniversityofTexas,Dallas.ThedatahereareanalyzedbyUCL

66%57%

61% 58% 59%54% 56%

45%50% 47% 48%

43%

20% 17% 16% 14% 16% 15% 13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6%

21% 20% 18% 17% 18% 17%

17% 15% 15% 13% 14% 14%

36%30% 29% 28%

23% 22%

8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%

22% 19% 19% 18% 16% 17%

5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%9% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Read article Discussed article Shared article Interacted community Written blog Used voice

Shared opinions Donated money Fundraised money Volunteered domestic Volunteered abroad Purchased boycotted

Voted Setup community Setup organisation Contacted MP offline Contacted MP online Participated march

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3 (Dec 2014)

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Wave

% o

f peo

ple

repo

rting

hav

ing

done

the

actio

n in

the

past

12

mon

ths

UK Aid Attitude Tracker 2013−201618 Actions

Refugeebattery– Questionwording

AllowinglargenumbersofrefugeestocometoBritainthreatenstooverwhelm ourpublicservices.AllowingrefugeestocometoBritainisagoodwaytostrengthentheBritisheconomy.AllowingalargenumberofrefugeesfromcountrieslikeSyria,IraqandLibyatoliveinBritainthreatensBritishcultureandtraditions.AllowingrefugeesfromcountrieslikeSyria,IraqandLibyatocomeandliveinBritainwillimproveBritain'sstanding intheworld.BritainhasamoralobligationtoletrefugeesfromcountrieslikeSyria,IraqandLibyacomeandlivehere.Thereisarealdangerthatterrorists fromcountrieslikeSyria,IraqandLibyawillenterBritainposingasrefugees.OverseasaidforhumanitarianemergenciesincountriesintheMiddleEastandAfricahelpstoreduceattemptstoimmigratetotheUK.

Information,progress,andvalence

Valence

Negative Positive

Progress

FailuredespitetheseeffortstheMDGtargetonreducingmaternalmortalityhasnotbeen

met

theMDGtargeton reducingmaternalmortalityhasnotbeenmet.Evenso,

becauseoftheseefforts,thenumberofmaternaldeathshasbeencutinhalf

Success

eventhoughtheMDGtargettohalveextremepovertyhassuccessfullybeenmet,1billionpeoplestillliveinextreme

poverty

theMDGtargettohalveextremepovertyhassuccessfullybeenmet.Theproportionofpeoplelivinginextremepovertyhas

fallenfromaround50%to14%

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