Province of Ontario Presentation• Fixed Global Bonds in 3, 5, 7 and 10 years, with benchmark size...
Transcript of Province of Ontario Presentation• Fixed Global Bonds in 3, 5, 7 and 10 years, with benchmark size...
Province of Ontario Presentation
November 2019
Ontario Financing Authority
http://www.ofina.on.ca
Ontario Financing Authority
www.ofina.on.ca
Ontario Overview
1
• Located in prime area with close
ties to many major U.S. states
and cities
• Ontario has a diverse economy
with direct taxation powers and
stable growth
• Services account for 77 per cent
of the economy, and
manufacturing for 12 per cent
• Current population of 14.6 million
and nominal GDP forecast at
$884 billion, representing almost
40 per cent of Canada
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Overview
• Economic and Fiscal Summary
▪ Largest Canadian provincial economy. Ontario’s real GDP increased 2.3
per cent in 2018, following a 2.8 per cent rise in 2017
▪ Ontario is expected to experience continued growth
▪ Business investment is projected to increase by an annual average rate of
2.6 per cent over the 2020–22 period
▪ The government is projecting a $1.3 billion improvement to the 2019–20
deficit, to $9.0 billion from $10.3 billion. This reflects the benefits of a
strong economy and revenue outlook
• Housing Market
▪ Ontario’s housing market is emerging from a period of adjustments
▪ Over the 2020–22 period, residential construction and house prices are
expected to grow moderately, while resales growth will be strong in 2020
and then moderate
2
3
Continued Economic Growth
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance Survey of Forecasters (October 2019), Ontario Ministry of Finance, IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2019),
IMF World Economic Update (July 2019) and “Blue Chip Economic Indicators” (October 2019).
Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
(Per Cent)2019 2020 2021 2022
Real GDP Growth
Private-Sector Survey Average 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.0
Ontario’s Planning Assumption 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9
Prudence 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Nominal GDP Growth 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.6
Employment Growth 2.6 1.2 1.0 1.1
CPI Inflation 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
External Factors
World Real GDP Growth 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.9
Favourable Demographics
Sources: Eurostat, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Population Growth Rates Comparison
4
Growth Rate
(Per Cent)
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
1971–72 1978–79 1985–86 1992–93 1999–00 2006–07 2013–14 2020–21 2027–28 2034–35
Historical Projected
Ontario
Germany
United
Kingdom
Rest of Canada
United States
Detailed Fiscal Outlook
5
Fiscal Summary
($ Billions)
Actual Current Outlook
2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22
Revenue 153.7 155.8 161.5 165.4
Expense
Programs 148.8 150.9 154.0 155.9
Interest on Debt 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.9
Total Expense 161.1 163.8 167.2 169.8
Reserve – 1.0 1.0 1.0
Surplus/(Deficit) (7.4) (9.0) (6.7) (5.4)
Source: 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
• The government is projecting a deficit of $9.0 billion in 2019–20
• Over the medium term, the government continues to project steadily declining deficits of $6.7 billion in
2020–21 and $5.4 billion in 2021–22. The government is maintaining its commitment to balance the
budget by 2023–24
Ontario Bonds• Bond Offerings
▪ Wide range of offerings provide extensive investment and trading
opportunities across the yield curve
• Liquid
▪ Strong liquidity in secondary markets and large benchmark issues
• Attractive Spreads
▪ Ontario spreads give investors opportunities to enhance their returns
• Safe
▪ A diverse economy with direct taxation powers and stable growth
• Borrowing Program
▪ Diverse program investor base continues to develop in size and diversification
6
7
Ontario’s Borrowing Outlook
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
($ Billions)
2019
Budget
In-Year
Change
Current Outlook
2019–20 2020–21 2021–22
Deficit/(Surplus) 10.3 (1.3) 9.0 6.7 5.4
Investment in Capital Assets 11.6 – 11.6 11.0 10.4
Non-Cash Adjustments (7.7) – (7.7) (7.7) (7.7)
Loans to Infrastructure Ontario 0.2 – 0.2 0.1 0.2
Other Net Loans/Investments 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.5 (0.1)
Debt Maturities/ Redemptions 27.5 (0.1) 27.4 26.6 24.0
Total Funding Requirement 42.5 (1.3) 41.2 37.2 32.2
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing (1.2) – (1.2) (1.0) (1.0)
Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents (5.3) (2.8) (8.1) (4.5) –
Total Long-Term Public Borrowing 36.0 (4.1) 31.9 31.7 31.2
Canadian Dollar Syndicated
Bonds$14.7B
69%
U.S. Dollar Bonds$6.3B30%
Australian Dollar Bonds$0.3B
1%
2019–20 Borrowing Program
8
Note: As of November 6, 2019. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Canadian
Dollar
$14.7B
69%
Foreign
Currencies
$6.7B
31%
$21.3Billion Issued
15.419.0
21.423.5
28.426.4
29.431.4
25.8
19.9 21.1
30.6
14.7
2.6
9.7
22.416.4 6.5 10.2
6.6
8.4
6.2
7.1
12.8
9.0
6.7
10.5
18.0
28.7
43.8
39.9
34.936.6 36.0
39.8
32.1
27.0
33.9
39.6
31.9 31.7 31.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22
Canadian Dollar Foreign Currencies 2019–20 Borrowing Remaining Projected Outlook
Domestic and International Borrowing
9
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Total Long-Term Borrowing
($ Billions)
Foreign 14% 34% 51% 41% 19% 28% 18% 21% 19% 26% 38% 23% 31% – –
Domestic 86% 66% 49% 59% 81% 72% 82% 79% 81% 74% 62% 77% 69% – –
Weighted-
Average
Term12.1 8.6 8.1 12.8 13.0 12.4 13.6 14.1 14.2 13.9 12.1 12.9 16.3 – –
As of November 6, 2019
Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
10
12.1
8.68.1
12.8 13.012.4
13.614.1 14.2 13.9
12.112.9
16.3
10.7 10.49.7 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.7
11.2*
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20
Weighted Borrowing Average Term Debt Portfolio Average Term
*The debt portfolio average terms are on a forecast basis for 2019–20 as of October 24, 2019.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
• Going back to the beginning of fiscal 2010–11, Ontario has issued $87.9 billion of
bonds 30 years or longer to lock in low interest rates
Average Term
(Years)
Domestic Borrowing Program
11
Canadian dollar Benchmark Bonds
(As of November 6, 2019)
Term Ontario Canada
5 yr (old) 2.60% September 8, 2023 $4.75B 2.25% March 1, 2024 $12.00B
5 yr (new) 2.30% September 8, 2024 $2.75B 1.50% September 1, 2024 $16.20B
10 yr (old) 2.90% June 2, 2028 $9.55B 2.00% June 1, 2028 $13.50B
10 yr (new) 2.70% June 2, 2029 $7.65B 2.25% June 1, 2029 $12.30B
Long (old) 2.90% June 2, 2049 $13.25B 3.50% December 1, 2045 $16.40B
Long (new) 2.65% December 2, 2050 $6.30B 2.75% December 1, 2048 $14.90B
1 PC Bond, as of March 31, 2019. 2 Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Market Trade Reporting System - Provincial Bond Total Trading.
• Narrow Bid-Ask Spreads
• Large and diverse domestic underwriting syndicate of 12 dealers make active markets in Ontario bonds
• Ontario accounts for 14.6 per cent of the FTSE TMX Universe Bond Index, 18.6 per cent of the FTSE TMX
Mid Bond Index and 19.7 per cent of the FTSE TMX Long Bond Index1
• Ontario bonds accounted for 61.0 per cent of Canadian provincial bond trading in 20182
• Regular issuance of 5-year, 10-year and 30-year issues, which are re-opened to achieve benchmark size
• Large Order Procedure (carve-outs) to accommodate large investors (4 issues totalling $1.8 billion in
2019–20)
Sources: Bloomberg, Ontario Financing Authority.
U.S. Dollar Borrowing
12
Term Issue Date Amount (U.S.$) Coupon
10 year September 25, 2019 1.25 billion 2.00%
7 years June 13, 2019 1.75 billion 2.30%
3 years April 17, 2019 1.75 billion 2.55%
5 years January 29, 2019 2.50 billion 3.05%
5 years October 10, 2018 2.50 billion 3.40%
3 years February 6, 2018 3.00 billion 2.55%
5 years September 26, 2017 2.00 billion 2.20%
5 years May 11, 2017 2.00 billion 2.25%
Recently Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds
• Fixed Global Bonds in 3, 5, 7 and 10 years, with benchmark size of U.S.$1B plus
• Total U.S. denominated bonds of C$40.0B outstanding as of March 31, 2019
• U.S. commercial paper (1-270 days), with about C$3.9B outstanding as of March 31, 2019
• Global Bonds are offered in SEC-registered format
• Eligible Ontario bonds are included in a number of bond market indices and sub-indices including
BofA Merrill Lynch, Citi, and Barclays Capital
Canada16%
United States42%
Europe17%
Asia Pacific15%
Middle East / Africa
2%
Other8%
• Core market with annual issuance since 1991
• Right-sized bond issues to meet demand
• U.S. dollar investors diversified both geographically and by type
USD by Geography USD by Investor Type
Note: Data for USD by Geography and Investor Type since 2010.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Asset Managers
24%
Central Banks14%
Banks / Trust
Companies31%
Insurance Companies /
Pension Funds10%
Government Agencies /
Supranationals8%
Mutual Funds / Fund Managers
6%
Other6%
U.S. Dollar Market
13
Ontario’s Green Bonds• Ontario is currently the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, with five green issues
totaling $4.0 billion and with $3.5 billion currently outstanding. October marked the fifth
anniversary of Ontario’s Green Bond program
• The Province plans to launch its next Green Bond before the end of the fiscal year, and possibly
another if market conditions allow
• They serve as an important tool to help Ontario finance public transit initiatives, extreme
weather-resistant infrastructure, and energy efficiency and conservation projects
• Assurances and Features:
▪ Ontario’s Green Bond Framework has been developed in consultation with the Center for
International Climate and Environmental Research — Oslo (CICERO)
▪ An assurance audit is performed by the Auditor General of Ontario verifying amounts
allocated to selected projects and tracking the amount of Green Bond proceeds
▪ Ontario’s Green Bond program aligns with the Green Bond Principles maintained by the
International Capital Market Association
• Ontario’s issues under the Green Bond program carry the full faith and credit of the Province of
Ontario with no project risk
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($ Billions)
Note: As of October 31, 2019
Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
Liquidity and Short-Term Borrowing Capacity
*Regular issuance of 3M, 6M and 1Y T-Bills
Note: As of October 31, 2019. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
8.3
14.4
19.4 20.2
23.324.9
23.621.7 21.1
30.1
32.634.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
($ Billions)
C$ T-Bill
Program
U.S.$
Commercial
Paper
Program
Total
Currency Canadian
Dollars
U.S. Dollars –
Maturity 1 day-3
years*
1-270 day(s) –
Authorized C$39.0 C$15.0 C$54.0
Outstanding C$18.0 C$5.0 C$23.0
Available C$21.0 C$10.0 C$31.0
• Liquid reserves (cash and short-term investments) are maintained at levels sufficient to
ensure the Province is able to meet its short-term financial obligations
• Ontario treasury bills and U.S. commercial paper are very well received in the money markets
and provide additional borrowing capacity if required
• Large capacity for short term borrowing: $54.0 billion authorized and $31.0 billion available
15
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Net Debt-to-GDP
16
Per Cent
• In 2019–20, the net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 40.0 per cent, or 0.7 percentage points lower than the 40.7
per cent forecast in the 2019 Budget. Going forward, the net debt-to-GDP ratio for the current outlook period is
forecast to be 0.6 percentage points lower in 2020–21 and 0.8 percentage points lower in 2021–22 than forecast in the
2019 Budget, as a result of the government’s debt reduction strategy and lower than forecast interest rates
Notes: Net debt has been restated to include broader public-sector net debt, starting in 2005–06. Net debt has been restated from 2001–02 onward for the adjustments
resulting from the revised accounting treatment of jointly sponsored pension plans.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
13.4
17.1
21.1
26.7
28.4
30.2 31.3
30.6 29.5
32.1
29.3 28.3
26.8 27.5
26.8
27.9
27.1 26.6
27.9
32.4
34.5
36.7
38.2
39.7 40.6 40.3
39.6 39.2
39.6 40.0 40.1 39.8
40.2 40.7 40.7 40.6
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Net Debt-to-GDP 2019 Budget Forecast
Actuals Current Outlook
IOD-to-Revenue
17
Per Cent
Note: The years from 2005–06 to 2019–20 have been restated for broader public sector line-by-line presentation.
Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2018–2019), and Ontario Financing Authority.
Actuals Current Outlook
7.7
8.8
10.8
13.9
14.5 14.6 14.8
14.2 14.3
15.5
15.0
14.2
12.9 12.9
11.1
9.7
8.9
8.4 8.7
8.9 8.8 9.1 9.0 9.1 8.9
8.5 8.3
7.98.1
8.3 8.2 8.4
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
18
* As of September 30, 2019.
Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2018–2019), and Ontario Financing Authority.
10.910.7
10.19.5 9.8
9.49.0 9.0
8.68.4
8.2
7.67.2
6.76.4
6.16.0 5.8
5.2
4.6 4.5 4.44.1 3.9
3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Per Cent
Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
19
3.383.27
3.42
3.07
2.50
2.93
2.67
2.25
2.09
2.31
2.87
3.44
3.73
2.38
2.70
2.27
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Actuals and 2019 Budget Forecast
2019 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Outlook
Actual Year-to-Date Cost of Borrowing
Per Cent
Note: 2019–20 and 2020–21 are 2019 Budget forecasts. Actual Year-to-Date Cost of Borrowing is as of October 24, 2019.
Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2018–2019) and Ontario Financing Authority.
Note: Excludes Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation debt.
* Includes debt maturities within a one year time horizon.
Exposure Policy Limit
Foreign Exchange 0.2% 3.0%
Floating Rate* 11.5% 35.0%
Risk Management
20
Of outstanding debt, interim as of October 31, 2019.
• Monitor and manage debt maturity profile to limit refinancing risk
• Maintain a high level of liquid reserves and short term borrowing capacity
• Enforce strict credit limits for financial and investment counterparties
• Have collateralized swap agreements in place for most swap counterparties
Credit Ratings
21
Rating Agencies Long-term Rating
A+
Aa3
AA-
AA (low)
Short-term Rating
A-1
P-1
F1+
R-1 (mid)
stable
Outlook
stable
stable
stable
Appendix
Composition of Revenue 2019–20
23
Revenue $155.8 Billion
Personal Income Tax
$37.1B23.8%
Government of Canada Transfers
$25.5B16.3%
Income from Govt.
Business Enterprises
$5.8B3.7%
Other Non-Tax Revenue$16.7B10.7%
Corporations Tax
$16.1B10.3%
Sales Tax$28.1B18.0%
Other Taxes$26.5B17.0%
• Revenue sources are diversified
• Taxation revenues account for 69.2 per cent
of total revenues
• Government of Canada transfers including
the Canada Health Transfer and Canada
Social Transfer account for 16.3 per cent of
total revenues
• Net Income from Government Business
Enterprises (Liquor Control Board of
Ontario, Ontario Lottery and Gaming
Corporation, Hydro One Ltd, and Ontario
Power Generation Inc.) account for
3.7 per cent of total revenues
• Other Non-Tax Revenues such as Fees,
Donations and Other Revenues from the
broader public sector, Vehicle and Driver
Registration fees, and Sales and Rentals,
account for 10.7 per cent of total revenues
Source: 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
Composition of Total Expense 2019–20
24
Expense $163.8 Billion
Health Sector2
$63.8B39.0%
Education Sector1
$30.0B18.3%
Postsecondary Education and
Training Sector2
$11.4B6.9%
Children's and Social Services
Sector$17.2B10.5%
Justice Sector$4.2B2.6%
Other Programs2
$24.2B14.8%
Interest on Debt$12.9B7.9%
1 Excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs2 Sectors are reported based on the 2019 Budget ministry structure. Impacts on sectors resulting from changes to ministry structures made since the
2019 Budget will be reflected in future updates.
Source: 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
• The largest expense is the Health Sector
at $63.8 billion, accounting for 39.0 per
cent of total expense
• Interest on Debt, included as part of total
expense, is $12.9 billion, or 7.9 per cent
of total expense
Primary2% Utilities
2% Construction7%
Manufacturing12%
Wholesale & Retail Trade
11%
Transportation & Warehousing
4%
Information & Cultural
3%
Finance & Insurance
10%
Real Estate & Renting & Leasing1
13%
Professional & Scientific
7%
Health & Education
13%
Public Administration
7%
Other Services9%
1
• Ontario has a diverse economy, with extensive financial and business services, manufacturing and a smaller
primary sector compared to the rest of Canada
Structure of the Ontario Economy, 2018 (Per Cent Share of Ontario Nominal GDP)
Ontario’s Diverse Economy
25
1 Includes estimate of imputed rental income from owner occupied dwellings.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Services (77% of GDP)
Goods (23% of GDP)
p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection
Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
26
Ontario Housing Market
Average Home Resale Price Growth
(Per Cent Change)
Home Resales Growth
(Per Cent Change)
8.7
-9.8
-12.9
10.1
8.0
3.8
1.2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2016 2017 2018 2019p 2020p 2021p 2022p
15.2
9.3
-2.4
4.5
6.34.8
4.0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2016 2017 2018 2019p 2020p 2021p 2022p
27
Projected Economic Growth Breakdown
1.6
2.0
0.1
2.72.6
2.01.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Ontario RealGDP
HouseholdConsumption
Government ResidentialInvestment
BusinessInvestment
Exports Imports
Note: Government includes consumption and investment expenditure. Business investment includes non-residential construction, machinery and equipment and
intellectual property products.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Average Annual Growth from 2020 to 2022
(Per Cent)
28
Marginal Effective Tax Rate
Notes: The marginal effective tax rate (METR) includes federal and provincial taxes and excludes the resource and financial sectors and tax provisions
related to research and development. The U.S. Average METR “After U.S. Tax Reform (2019)” reflects the reduced federal corporate income tax rate
and the immediate write off of eligible depreciable property.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
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Investor Relations
Ontario Financing Authority
1 Dundas Street West, Suite 1200
Toronto, Ontario M5G 1Z3
Canada
Telephone: (416) 325-8000
Legal Notice
This presentation was compiled by the Ontario Financing Authority. This information is intended for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to purchase securities. It has not been approved by any securities
regulatory authority and it is not sufficient for the purpose of deciding to purchase securities. It may have errors or omissions resulting from electronic conversion, downloading or unauthorized modifications. Statements in this presentation may be “forward-looking
statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve uncertainties, risks, and other factors which could cause the state of Ontario’s economy to differ materially from the forecasts and
economic outlook contained expressly or implicitly in such statements. The province of Ontario undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable laws
and regulations. While the information in this presentation, when posted or released, was believed to be reliable as of its date, NO WARRANTY IS MADE AS TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS DOCUMENT OR THE INFORMATION IT
CONTAINS.