PROVIDING OPERATIONAL WEATHER SUPPORT FOR URBAN WILDFIRE INTERFACES Mark Jackson Meteorologist in...
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Transcript of PROVIDING OPERATIONAL WEATHER SUPPORT FOR URBAN WILDFIRE INTERFACES Mark Jackson Meteorologist in...
PROVIDING OPERATIONAL WEATHER SUPPORT FOR URBAN WILDFIRE INTERFACES
Mark JacksonMeteorologist in ChargeNWS Los Angeles/Oxnard
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group October 1-2, 2007
Scope of the issue?
Wildfires in the urban interface can quickly become very damaging and costly – structures burn from the inside out
2003 Southern California Fires:Over 3500 structures destroyed$2.04 billion in property losses $250 million in suppression costs
Based on 2000 census data, 41.75% of the housing units inCalifornia fall within an Urban Wildfire Interface (UWI)
88 cities and 10 million people in Los Angeles County alone
Southern California Fires Since 2003
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Almost 10% of NWS Los Angeles and San Diego CountyWarning Areas burned!
Where weather fits in
Fire weather support in the urban interface must be:
Timely, accurate,
consistent, effectively
communicated!
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Feed initial preparedness Fire Weather Forecasts, Fire Weather Watches, Red Flag Warnings,
Trends
Feed initial fire response Spot Forecasts
IMET SUPPORT
Role of the Weather Forecast OfficeFire weather support
OutlineThe tools for support
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Outreach and coordination A day to day partnership! Red Flag Warnings
Digital Forecasts in GIS How they are accessed LA City Fire Department
Local WRF Santa Ana project Numerical model high resolution Santa Ana
climatology
Annual meetings with fire agencies LA County Fire Los Padres National Forest Angeles National Forest San Luis Obispo CDF Riverside Geographic Area
Coordination Center (GACC) Goals of these visits
Overview of NWS Los Angeles Fire Weather Program Reviewing product suite and Red Flag Warning (RFW)
criteria Informs NWS staff of fire agency procedures and
operations Gives users opportunity to provide feedback and
suggestions Build new and enhance existing customer/partner
relationships
Fire weather outreach
LA City Fire Ventura County Fire Santa Barbara County Fire Ojai Ranger District
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Listening to the customers
“They listen, which is what we want. If we call to make a suggestion, they’ll always listen and tell me whether they can do it, can’t do it, or will get right back to me. The most important thing is that they are there and they listen.” Los Angeles City Fire Department Assistant
Chief Tony Varela, providing service feedback during a recent South Ops fire weather meeting
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Agency FeedbackMark Sanchez – Chief, Ventura County Fire Dept.
Need consistency in forecasts Especially on large fires with multiple
camps Probability forecasts
Tell me what’s possible Air quality and mixing heights
Huge to air operations
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Working together
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Fire preparednessand suppression
WeatherWeather
FuelsFuels
2007
2006
Normal
Red Flag Warnings (RFW)
They drive the program Issued by NWS fire weather zones
Preceded by Fire Weather Watches Daily conference calls with GACC and
surrounding forecast offices during critical fire weather Calls to fire agencies
Criteria is localized according to customer need and local climatology Reviewed with agencies annually
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Red Flag WarningsCriteria at WFO Los Angeles/Oxnard
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Dry fuels and any one of the following:
Relative humidity (RH) 15% or less with either sustained winds 25 mph or greater or frequent gusts 35 mph or greater – for 6 hours or more-or-
Relative humidity 10% or less for 10 hours or more-or-
Widespread and/or significant dry lightning
Dry fuels and any one of the following:
Relative humidity (RH) 15% or less with either sustained winds 25 mph or greater or frequent gusts 35 mph or greater – for 6 hours or more-or-
Relative humidity 10% or less for 10 hours or more-or-
Widespread and/or significant dry lightning
WFO Oxnard average RFW lead time thus far in 2007 is 25 hoursWFO Oxnard average RFW lead time thus far in 2007 is 25 hours
RFW Wind/RH matrix approach
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Wind/RH RFW Decision Matrix for Northern CaliforniaWest of the Cascade/Sierra Crest (W = Red Flag Warning)
Increasing winds
Incr
easi
ng R
H
RFW feedback
Mixed feedback on number of RFWs Most ok with number, some say it’s too much Can potentially cost fire agency thousands of
dollars in overtime, lost training time, etc. How sophisticated do we make the criteria?
Nighttime RH recovery, sophisticated fuel indicators, or seasonal criteria? Should dry lightning criteria be adjusted for very dry
fuels? No absolute yes/no answer
RFW did not verify in October 2003, but was needed
No RFW prior to Topanga Fire (2005), would not have verified, but was probably needed
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
RFW feedbackLos Angeles City Fire Department
Concern with false alarms and extent of warnings 2007 Oxnard RFW false alarm rate = 0.04
City may issue Red Flag Alert, prompting parking restrictions in Hollywood Hills Can’t avoid this as a political issue
Working with city and county to split fire weather zones in the county
Can polygon RFWs resolve issue? Provides more GIS-friendly information
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard (LOX) fire weather zone boundaries
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Los Angeles CountyValleys (247) and Los Angeles CountyCoast (241)
Can polygon RFWs help?
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Some areas within a zone in RFW that don’t belong – for instance, some parts of the Los Angeles County coast,like the Hollywood Hills
Hollywood Hills
Polygons could allow formore specificity
What is the NDFD?
National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database
Gridded 1-7 day forecasts of sensible weather elements at the surface (up to hourly)
Near-seamless mosaic of digital forecasts from all NWS field offices Collaborated between offices and centers
Available to users to create own forecast format Text, graphic, gridded, and image products
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Is this fine enough resolution?
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
5 km
Not seen as ahindrance – thoughadvanced usersadmit 2.5 km ispreferred
Designed to givesubjective input onforecast surfaceweather conditions
One NDFD grid box
The NDFD in fire weather support First generation input for NWS spot forecasts Also for NFDRS trends forecast Input for FARSITE fire behavior model
Also for NFDRS trends forecast Web-based interactive weather planner
Experimental tool for fire planning Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
“You’re sitting on a gold mine of data” - Jack Dangermond, President and Founder of Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) – a world leader in GIS software and technology – upon being told of the NDFD (personal communication)
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
The NDFD in GIS
Users can obtain by converting NDFD Grib data into GIS shapefiles Requires user several steps 5 km resolution
Shapefiles available from selected Weather Forecast Office web pages “Degribbing” done at the local office Subset of NDFD elements
(e.g., for fire weather)
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Feature Service vs. Image/Map Service
Feature Service Make a request for data across the Internet and
receive data back Can be incorporated with your own geospatial datasets Allows for data query and analysis
Image/Map Service Serve maps across the Internet (e.g., Google
Maps) Generally static maps that allow simple panning and
zooming Only need access to Internet; no need for GIS software
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
NDFD Shapefiles on a few WFO web pages
Medford Salt Lake City
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Los Angeles/Oxnard Salt Lake City
Wind Speed and Direction in ArcGISVarying wind vector symbol sizes and colors
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Fire boundaries(for scale perspective)
Piru (2003)
Simi (2003)
Topanga (2005)
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Southern California EdisonThe power of the NDFD in GIS!
NWS Oxnard providedassistance in usingNDFD in theirinterruptible powerprogram (rollingblackouts)
Cannot disrupt powerfor areas over 105o
or below 25o
Previous system:One meteorologistforecasting for over400 individual cities
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
GIS allows them to show areas wherepower cannot bedisrupted
In this case, thegraphic shows all areas over 105o
Saves them time andmoney!
Southern California EdisonThe power of the NDFD in GIS!
Access by handheld users?
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Access to weatherinformation in the field for fireagencies and other emergencyresponders
Regional and national effortsNDFD in GIS
NWS Southern Region Headquarters working towards implementing NDFD to GIS nationally Setting up prototype to initially include southern
and southwestern regions Proposal to host shapefiles at NWS Western
Region Headquarters Shapefiles (2.5 km) available for each forecast
office and possibly larger geographic areas (i.e. GACCs)
User access through forecast office web pages User defined domains
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
What needs to be done? NDFD in GIS
Commitment to provide easy access to NDFD for use in GIS applications World of GIS is expanding daily Data must be fresh (Need Map and Image
Service) Domain should be configurable 2.5 km
Hosting at regional servers
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Los Angeles Incident Action Mapping SystemA “Common Operational Picture” using GIS mapping capabilities
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Developed by Steve Robinson, Pilot III, Los Angeles City Fire Department
Hardware support from Hewlett-Packard; software from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI)
Used for a multitude of incident applications Topanga Fire '05 Academy Awards '04, '05, and '06 Grammy's '05 Simi Valley Fire '03
System overview (wildfires)
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Fire perimeter data collected via air operations
Successive fire area “shape files” overlaid to determine the speed of the fire front through simple extrapolation
Equipment and personnel then directed to critical areas in immediate threat of the fire
System can also reveal the populated areas mostthreatened by the incident Shelters, evacuation routes, etc.
System overview (wildfires)
LA Fire Department helicopters are equipped with Infrared (IR) & video downlink capability.
Aerocomputer - Airborne CPU for creation of geo-referenced shape files
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Ability to plot the perimeter of the disaster/fire and calculate total incident area
Computer mapping
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
SIMI VALLEY FIRE PROGRESSION & TIMELINE
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Fire Boundary
How NWS became involved
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Los Angeles Times story highlighting system NWS makes contact with Steve Robinson
First assumed to be sophisticated fire spread model
Further investigation reveals system not designed to ingest weather information, nor is a fire spread model
WFO Los Angeles/Oxnard proposes ingest and use of NDFD winds as additional decision making information E.g., excessive winds near a fire line can heighten the
urgency for response in particular area Other use of environmental information in other
disaster response applications (e.g., HAZMAT)
Integrating weather information
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Could help in subjectively adjusting speed of fire line Excessive winds or very low relative humidity
2.5-km, or even 5.0-km, resolution not seen as a deficiency This is a disaster response
system, not a sophisticatedfire spread model
Update on City of Los Angeles System
External factors and events have delayed full use of NDFD in system
Have relayed information on WFO Los Angeles GIS web page to Steve Robinson Will hopefully eliminate past barriers to
implement Proof that we can and should facilitate
outside system enhancements More sophisticated fire spread input?
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
How can we attain situational awareness?
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Highest operational model resolution is 12 km
We know of favored areas for stronger winds Fire fighters are in the field – but we aren’t
How can forecasters better understand theseconditions?
Can high-res numerical models help?
High Resolution Santa Ana climatology
Run workstation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Triple nest (4 km res.)
Use North American Regional Reanalysis data from Santa Ana cases
Results available as animations or direct input into NWS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) – NDFD
Results to show preferred areas of strong winds
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
Santa Ana simulation using WRF model
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
2 December 2006
Simulation begins at 12Z
4 km inner nest
Wind speed/direction andMSLP
Los Angeles
Need for operational high resolution numerical guidance
NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007
MM5 guidanceavailable to IMETs working Topanga Fire
September 2005
Winds and wind speed6 hr forecast
4 km resolution
Topanga fire
Summary and takeaways
Weather support for Urban Wildfire Interface requires aggressive agency partnerships Cannot apply wilderness wildfire suppression
response Requires quick action and fast response
Requires exploration and application of latest fire weather and suppression technology
NDFD must be “GIS-friendly” Explore polygon-based RFW Operational implementation and use of higher
resolution numerical model guidanceNOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group
October 1-2, 2007