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PROTECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO FROM INFLATIONweb1.amchouston.com/flexshare/001/CFA/Fall Speakers/Keith...
Transcript of PROTECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO FROM INFLATIONweb1.amchouston.com/flexshare/001/CFA/Fall Speakers/Keith...
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SHOWCASE YOUR KNOWLEDGE
Proprietary and confidential. Please do not redistribute or post on the Internet without written permission. The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such.
All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. © 2013 CAIA Association, Inc.
PROTECTING YOUR
PORTFOLIO FROM INFLATION KEITH BLACK, PHD, CFA, CAIA
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THE CAIA PROGRAM
The Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) curriculum
covers the following topics:
Ethics and professional standards, hedge funds, private
equity, real assets, commodities and structured products
Over 20% of the program material is dedicated to inflation-
sensitive assets
Over 6,700 members worldwide have earned the CAIA
designation
75% of candidates are from the US, UK, Hong Kong,
Switzerland or Singapore
Members are typically employed as
Portfolio managers, consultants, marketers, asset allocators,
analysts, or risk managers
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Level I
Chapter 8: Land, Infrastructure, and Intangible Real Assets
Chapter 19: Commodities: Applications and Evidence
Level II
Chapter 3: Risk Management for Endowment and Foundation Portfolios
Chapter 24: Role of Commodities in Asset Allocation
Chapter 27: Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Futures Returns
CAIA CURRICULUM
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WHY HEDGE INFLATION?
Most investors think in terms of nominal returns, especially in the
fixed income markets
However, rising inflation makes it more difficult to meet terminal wealth goals in nominal terms
Investors with a greater need for inflation protection will choose
larger allocations to real assets
Endowments and foundations who seek to maintain real spending
while preserving the real value of the endowment
Pensions who offer cost-of-living (COLA) adjustments to their retirees
Corporations or individuals with fixed incomes, but expenses that
grow with inflation
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INFLATION UNCERTAINTY
With global fiscal and monetary stimulus, the uncertainty of
future inflation is high
While money supply growth is high, significantly higher inflation is unlikely to come until employment and production levels
increase
-
0.50
1.00
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Dispersion of Forecasted Inflation Change
Philadelphia Federal Reserve, “Standard Deviation of One Year Inflation Forecasts of Professional Forecasters”, 2013
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HEDGING INFLATION
Housing
32%
Medical
and
Education
14%
Commoditie
s
23%
Other
Goods and
Services
29%
US Consumer Price Index,
January 2014
USCPI, 2014
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INFLATION BETAS
Where can institutional investors turn to hedge their inflation risk?
Studies have found that a few assets can hedge inflation risk
(positive inflation beta), while the majority of institutional assets
have a risk to rising inflation (negative inflation beta)
Within equities, smaller cap stocks and less capital intensive sectors
have even greater inflation risk
In practice, many institutions build a real assets allocation,
investing 5% to 20% of the portfolio in timberland, farmland, linkers
and commodity futures
Assets with superior inflation protection may have lower risk-
adjusted returns
20 Year US
Treasuries
S&P 500 3 Month
T-bills
10 Year
TIPS
Farmland Commodity
Futures
-3.1 -2.4 0.3 0.8 1.7 6.5
Bernstein Global Wealth Mgmt, “Deflating Inflation: Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio”, 2010
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INFLATION-LINKED BONDS
Sovereign debt issues offer a real yield with an inflation-adjusted
principal value
10 year US TIPS offer a real yield of less than 0.5%
Break-even yield implies 2.2% future inflation, down from 2.5% last year
Bernstein estimates an inflation beta of 0.8
Holding non-USD issues can hedge the declining value of the
dollar, but are more sensitive to local country inflation
$2.3 trillion issued worldwide
Approximately 30% in US, 40% in UK and Eurozone
30% in Canada, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Iceland, Emerging Markets
Bernstein Global Wealth Mgmt, “Deflating Inflation: Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio”, 2010
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LEVERAGED LOANS
As of August 30, 2013 Sorted by
June Total Return
Jan-13 Total
Return
May-13 Total
Return
June-13
Total Return
Yield-to-
Worst
Modified
Duration
Barclays U.S. TIPS -0.68% -4.36% -3.58% 2.27% 8.0 years
Barclays U.S. Corporate -0.89% -2.34% -2.76% 3.39% 6.8 years
Barclays U.S. Aggregate -0.70% -1.78% -1.55% 2.48% 5.5 years
Barclays U.S. Treasuries -0.81% -1.71% -1.10% 1.36% 5.1 years
S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan +1.06% +0.19% -0.59% 6.65%* < 90 days
Leveraged loans are floating rate, high yield investments
With low duration, leveraged loans don’t necessarily suffer during rising rates
Shenkman Capital Management Inc., 2013
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LEVERAGED LOANS PROSPER WHEN RATES RISE
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Dec
-99
Dec
-00
Dec
-01
Dec
-02
Dec
-03
Dec
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Dec
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Dec
-06
Dec
-07
Dec
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Dec
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Dec
-10
Dec
-11
Dec
-12
Co
rrel
atio
n
Rolling 3-year Correlation to U.S. Treasuries: Jan 1997 - Aug 2013
S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan
BCAP Aggregate
BCAP U.S. Corporate
BCAP U.S. TIPS
Deleveraging Regime
Pre-Deleveraging Regime
Shenkman Capital Management Inc., 2013
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COMMODITY FUTURES
Commodity futures returns have attractive correlation
characteristics over long time periods
Diversify across energy, industrial and precious metals, and agricultural products
Bernstein estimates an inflation beta of 6.5
Gorton/Rouwenhorst, “Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures”, Financial Analysts Journal, 2006
Commodity
Futures
Correlation
Stocks Bonds Inflation
One Year -0.10 -0.30 0.29
Five Years -0.42 -0.25 0.45
Bernstein Global Wealth Mgmt, “Deflating Inflation: Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio”, 2010 11
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TRENDS IN CORRELATION
Ecowin, Barclays Research, 2013
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Commodity/equity correlations fall… … as do cross-commodity correlations
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EQUITIES
Equities have high long-term returns, but suffer in the short run
from higher interest rates during times of inflation
Firms in the natural resource, energy and real estate sectors have
greater inflation protection than broad equity indices
Energy and metals stocks have an inflation beta of 2, REITs of -2, and
S&P 500 of -2.4
Smaller stocks and less capital intensive stocks get hurt the most
by rising inflation
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Rising Inflation Leaders to Higher Earnings… … but a Higher Discount Rate Hurts Valuations
Bernstein Global Wealth Mgmt, “Deflating Inflation: Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio”, 2010
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REAL ESTATE AND REITS
Real estate investments are a hybrid between fixed
income and equity securities
Long-term leases are similar to fixed income instruments, as fixed rate leases suffer from higher discount rates
Property equity can act like stocks, rising with long-term
inflation
Short-term effects are negative for both REITs and private
real estate partnerships
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TIMBERLAND
Like real estate, the land value can be negatively affected by
inflation
Like commodities, timber values are positively affected by inflation
Can be correlated to economic activity, especially housing
starts
Interesting real options characteristics, where waiting to harvest
during times of low prices can lead to another year of biological
growth
Martin, “The Long-Horizon Benefits of Traditional and New Real Assets in the Institutional Portfolio”, Journal of Alternative Investments, 2010
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FARMLAND
Unlike infrastructure or real estate, the supply of farmland is fixed
or shrinking despite growing demand for food
Returns may be leveraged to growth in population and income in emerging markets
Commodity-based rents benefit from short-term inflation
Bernstein estimates an inflation beta of 1.7
Permanent crops, such as orchards or citrus, have different
characteristics than row crops
Row crops, such as corn or wheat, have annual option to switch
to a more profitable crop
Bernstein Global Wealth Mgmt, “Deflating Inflation: Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio”, 2010
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INFRASTRUCTURE AND MLPS
Toll roads, pipelines, ports and utilities can benefit from inflation
when user fees increase at a greater rate than expenses
Infrastructure is a hybrid asset class, having characteristics of fixed
income, real estate and private equity
Many infrastructure assets have low price elasticity of demand,
making the cash flows somewhat recession proof
Some contracts to operate regulated assets include inflation
escalation clauses
Investment opportunities may be large due to growing energy
demand, governmental budget deficits and needs for
infrastructure growth and rehabilitation
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SUMMARY OF REAL ASSET CHARACTERISTICS
Martin, “The Long-Horizon Benefits of Traditional and New Real Assets in the Institutional Portfolio”, Journal of Alternative Investments, 2010
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THE CAIA CHARTER The Global Benchmark In Alternative Investment Education
caia.org
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THE CAIA CHARTER The Global Benchmark In Alternative Investment Education
March 2015 Exam
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GLOBAL PRESENCE
21 March 2015 Exam
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Membership as of May 31 Annually
MEMBERSHIP GROWTH
22 March 2015 Exam
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MEMBERSHIP PROFILE
23
55%
13%
32% Americas
Asia-Pacific
Europe, Middle-East, Africa
March 2015 Exam
3%
4%
5%
5%
7%
11%
11%
11%
16%
26%
Accounting / Fund Administration
Due Diligence, Compliance, and/or Legal
Asset Allocator
Marketing
Risk Management
Other
Business Development
Consultant
Analyst
Portfolio Management
CAIA Members by Profession
*From January 2014 CAIA Member Survey with 14% of members responding.
Regional Distribution of CAIA Members
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LEVEL I CURRICULUM
Professional Standards & Ethics
Introduction to Alternative Investments
Real Assets
Hedge Funds
Commodities
Private Equity
Structured Products
Risk & Portfolio Management
24
CORE CONCEPTS
March 2015 Exam
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LEVEL II CURRICULUM
Professional Standards & Ethics
Venture Capital & Private Equity
Hedge Funds & Managed Futures
Real Estate/Real Assets
Commodities
Structured Products
Manager Selection, Due Diligence & Regulation
Research Issues & Current Topics
Risk & Risk Management
Asset Allocation & Portfolio Management
25
ADVANCED CORE CONCEPTS
March 2015 Exam
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EXAM TOPICS
26 March 2015 Exam
15%
5%
10%
5%
5% 10%
5%
5% 5%
10% 15%
10% 5%
10% 15%
Level I Level II
Minimum Weights by Topic per CAIA Exam Level
Introduction to Alternative
Investments
Hedge Funds & Managed
Futures
Standards & Ethics
Hedge Funds
Real Assets
Commodities
Private Equity
Structured Products
Risk Management
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EXAMINATION FORMAT
LEVEL I
200 Multiple Choice Questions Section 1 : 100 questions / 120 minutes
Section 2 : 100 questions / 120 minutes
SAMPLE: Consider the case of a non-dividend-paying financial asset where F > Ser(T-t).
How, in this case, can the hedge fund manager earn a profit?
LEVEL II
100 Multiple Choice Questions + 3 Essays Section 1 : 100 questions / 120 minutes
Section 2 : 3 essays / 120 minutes
SAMPLE: Recent studies argue that during tail-risk events, the returns earned by broad
equity indices go to extremes. What are the primary forces driving this process?
27 March 2015 Exam
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CANDIDATE SUPPORT/TOOLS
Study guides outlining keywords and learning
objectives
Workbooks with sample exercises
Candidate orientation sessions
Study calculator to plan your course of study
Third Party Preparatory Course and Programs
Level I & Level II sample exams
28 March 2015 Exam
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FEES
29
CURRICULUM COST
The CAIA Curriculum is available for purchase through
Amazon.com and Wiley.com.
Approximate pricing (in USD):
• Level I Textbook US $110 - 200
• Level II Textbook & Readings US $310 - 400 • Standards of Practice Handbook US $30 - 40
March 2015 Exam
(in USD) Level I Level II Membership (annually)
Program Enrollment $400 Full $350
Exam Registration $1250 $1250 Affiliate $175
TOTAL $1650 $1250 Retired $175
Early Registration Discount -$100 -$100
Retake Fee $450 $450
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PASS RATES
30 March 2015 Exam
71% 74% 68% 64% 68% 68% 67%
58% 59% 58% 62% 65% 62% 63%
0%
100%
Pass Rates of Candidates Per Exam Cycle
Level I
Level II
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CAIA CHARTER
31 March 2015 Exam
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ACADEMIC PARTNERSHIPS
32 March 2015 Exam
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ASSOCIATION PARTNERSHIPS
33 March 2015 Exam
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Banks
Consultants
Fund Management
Regulators
Pension Funds & Endowments
SAMPLE OF CAIA MEMBER EMPLOYERS
34 March 2015 Exam
• HSBC
• Citi • Credit Suisse
• UBS
• Barclays Capital
• Cambridge Associates
• New England Pension Consultants
• Mercer
• Towers Watson
• Blackrock • Goldman Sachs • J.P. Morgan
• Morgan Stanley • State Street
• U.S. SEC • MAS Singapore
• SFC Hong Kong
• FCA UK • CIMA Cayman
• APG
• Texas Retirement System • Chicago Teachers
• Ontario Teachers
• CalPERS • Harvard Management Co.
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CAIA IS “PREFERRED”
35 March 2015 Exam
Sample job postings from the CAIA Job Board.
Top companies seek to hire CAIA Charter holders.
Risk Management - Associate
Industry certifications, such as a CFA, CAIA, or FRM, are a plus.
International Relationship Manager
CFA, CAIA or working toward preferred.
Equity Investment Research - Manager
CIMA, CAIA, and/or CFA charter holders or candidates will be looked favorably upon.
Senior Credit Specialist
CFA / CAIA / FRM / PRM is considered highly advantageous.
Senior Quantitative Research Analyst
CFA, CAIA, CIMA
International Trading Manager
MBA, CFA, CAIA or CMT preferred
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CAREER VALUE OF THE CAIA CHARTER
36
10%
11%
15%
15%
43%
66%
0% 100%
Increased Compensation
New Business
New Position/Promotion
Additional Responsibilities
Expanded Professional
Networks
Increased Credibility
CAIA Members Report Positive Career Outcomes
After Earning the CAIA Charter
*From October 2013 CAIA Member Survey. Numbers represent approximately 14% of members.
March 2015 Exam
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Self Evaluation Tool Ongoing education
MEMBER BENEFITS
37
Regular educational and networking events
Connected through social media
March 2015 Exam
Globally recognized designation
Global network of more than 6,900 members
Job Board CAIA Preferred
CAIA Targeted
CAIA.org Knowledge Center
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MARCH 2015 EXAM NOTABLE DATES
Registration
• Early: October 1- November 12, 2014
• Regular: November 13, 2014 – February 4, 2015
Level I Exam
• March 9 - 20, 2015
Level II Exam
• March 2-13, 2015
38 March 2015 Exam
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AMERICAS
Millissa Allen, CAIA Amherst Director of Business Development direct: +1 413 549 3324 [email protected]
EUROPE, MIDDLE-EAST, AFRICA
Laura Merlini, CAIA Geneva
Director of Business Development direct: +41 796 154 491 [email protected]
Tammy Johnston London Administrative Assistant
ASIA-PACIFIC
Joanne Murphy Hong Kong
Managing Director, APAC direct: +852 3655 0598 [email protected]
Wendy Leung Hong Kong Events, Candidate & Member Services Manager, Asia Pacific direct: +852 3655 0568 [email protected]
Andrew Tetreault Amherst Business Development Manager direct: +1 413 549 3317 [email protected]
Remer Rietkerk Amherst Business Development Coordinator direct: +1 413 549 3313 [email protected]
Peter Douglas, CAIA Singapore Principal direct: +65 6536 4241 [email protected]
GLOBAL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CONTACTS
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March 2015 Exam
THE CAIA CHARTER The Global Benchmark In Alternative Investment Education
caia.org