Prospects for Romania’s convergence
8
Prospects for Romania’s convergence Perspectives from EU countries with earlier accession Guillermo TOLOSA Resident Representative for Romania and Bulgaria International Monetary Fund
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Prospects for Romania’s convergence. Perspectives from EU countries with earlier accession. Guillermo TOLOSA Resident Representative for Romania and Bulgaria International Monetary Fund. Fast convergence is possibl e, but not a given. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Prospects for Romania’s convergence
Prospects for Romania’s convergence
Perspectives from EU countries with earlier accession
Guillermo TOLOSAResident Representative for Romania and
BulgariaInternational Monetary Fund
Fast convergence is possible, but not a given
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Portugal Spain
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Greece
The
pric
e of
pop
ulis
m
GDP per capita; cumulative percentage change as % of Euro area
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
The crisis made it harder, raising stakes for policy
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
10
20
30
40
50
60
Baltics
CE5
RO
SEE x EU
CIS
Income levels relative to advanced economiesPercent of advanced economies GDP per head at PPP
Source: WEO
Convergence opportunities - Manufacturing
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19960
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Billi
on E
URO
Spain
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19960
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Billi
on E
URO
Portugal
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Billi
on E
URO
Ireland
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Billi
on E
URO
Romania
Source: AMECO database
Convergence opportunities – Foreign investment has room to recover
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Portugal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
%GD
P
Spain
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19990
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
%GD
P
Ireland
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
%GD
P
Romania
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
Convergence opportunities – Untapped labor force
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19950
5
10
15
20
25
Portugal Spain
Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)
RO PL LT SI LV HU EE CZ SK0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2013
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Eurostat
Thank you
European Convergence, GDP per capita in PPP, as % of EU
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators*Greece - Only data from 1980 onwards available
Spain
Slove
nia
Greece
Czech Rep
ublic
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Portuga
l
Hungary
Estonia
Poland
Lithuan
iaLat
via
Romania
Bulgaria
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
4%8%
-17%
7%
23%
7%
14%
22%
17%
22%20%
27%
18%
