Prospects for Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

8/3/2019 Prospects for Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

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OMDL Sbtgl`c Zozet Xetlex

Ztbxzeh}x nbt Ab`e}ot|

Hbbzeto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo

\u`c Hfui Zotg o`m Hfl!\bu`c Xb`c

@b. 8?=Bh}bdet 4:??

Oxlo` Me~eibzae`} Do`g L`x}l}u}e



]fe Sbtgl`c Zozet xetlex lx o hb`}lùo}lb` bn }fe nbtaeti| òaem Mlxhuxxlb` Zozet xetlex7 }feùadetl`c bn }fe zozetx hb`}lùem sl}fbu} l`}ettuz}lb` bt hfo`ce. OMDL“x sbtgl`c zozetxtenieh} l`l}loi lmeox b` o }bzlh o`m ote zbx}em bìlè nbt mlxhuxxlb`. OMDL e`hbutocex teometx }bzbx} }felt hbaae`}x b` }fe aol` zoce nbt eohf sbtgl`c zozet &cl~e` l` }fe hl}o}lb` deibs,.

Xbae sbtgl`c zozetx ao| me~eibz l`}b b}fet nbtax bn zudilho}lb`.

Xuccex}em hl}o}lb`;

Zotg) \.) o`m H. Xb`c. 4:??. Ztbxzeh}x nbt Abè}ot| Hbbzeto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo. OMDL Sbtgl`cZozet @b. 8?=. ]bg|b; Oxlo` Me~eibzae`} Do`g L`x}l}u}e. O~oliodie;f}}z;""sss.omdl.btc"sbtgl`c!zozet"4:??"?:"4?"=38<.ztbxzeh}x.abè}ot|.hbbzeto}lb`.eox}.oxlo"

Zieoxe hb`}oh} }fe ou}fbtx nbt l`nbtao}lb` odbu} }flx zozet;

E!aoli;

\u`c Hfui Zotg; |u`chzJgbteo.oh.gtHfl!\bu`c Xb`c; h|xb`cJgbbgal`.oh.gt

\u`c Hfui Zotg lx mlx}l`culxfem ztbnexxbt o} }fe Xhfbbi bn L`}etò}lbòi X}umlex o} GbteoU`l~etxl}|) Xebui. Hfl!\bu`c Xb`c lx ztbnexxbt o} }fe Mezot}ae`} bn Hbaaethe o`mNlò`he) Gbbgal` U`l~etxl}|) Xebui.

]fe ~lesx evztexxem l` }flx zozet ote }fe ~lesx bn }fe ou}fbtx o`m mb `b} èhexxotli|tenieh} }fe ~lesx bt zbilhlex bn OMDL) }fe Oxlo` Me~eibzae`} Do`g &OMD,) l}x Dbotm bnMlteh}btx) bt }fe cb~etàe`}x }fe| teztexe`}. OMDL mbex `b} cuoto`}ee }fe ohhutoh| bn}fe mo}o l`hiumem l` }flx zozet o`m ohhez}x `b texzb`xldlil}| nbt o`| hb`xeque`hex bn}felt uxe. ]etal`bibc| uxem ao| `b} èhexxotli| de hb`xlx}e`} sl}f OMD bnnlhloi }etax.

Oxlo` Me~eibzae`} Do`g L`x}l}u}eGoxualcoxegl Duliml`c 6N8!4!5 Goxualcoxegl) Hfl|bmo!gu]bg|b ?::!>::6) Kozo`

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¬ 4:?? Oxlo` Me~eibzae`} Do`g L`x}l}u}e

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OMDL Sbtgl`c Zozet 8?= Zotg o`m Xb`c

Odx}toh}

]fe zutzbxe bn }flx zozet lx }b teevoalè }fe evhfo`ce to}e zbilh| bn }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo)o`m l}x tbie l` ztbab}l`c nlò`hloi o`m abè}ot| hbbzeto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo l` }fe soge bn }fe4::6 cibdoi nlò`hloi htlxlx. ]fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo sbuim `b} oh}l~ei| zot}lhlzo}e l` o`|mlxhuxxlb` bn ex}odilxfl`c o teclbòi abè}ot| o`m evhfo`ce to}e otto`ceae`} ox l} lx evzeh}em

}b aol`}ol` o seogi| aoòcem nibo}l`c teclae. ]fe Zebzie“x Tezudilh bn Hflò &ZTH, fox dee`nbx}etl`c }fe |uo` ox o` l`}etò}lbòi hutte`h|) sflhf slii io| }fe ctbu`msbtg nbt nbtal`c o |uoòteo oab`c }fe ZTH7 }fe Oxxbhlo}lb` bn Xbu}feox} Oxlo` @o}lb`x

KEI Hioxxlnlho}lb`; N8) N=

&OXEO@,7 Fb`c Gb`c) Hflò7}fe ZTH7 o`m ]olzel)Hflò. Kozo` fox xfbs` iexx l`}etex} l` oxxual`c o cteo}et tbie l` Eox}Oxlo“x ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb` mue }b menio}lb`) o x}tb`c |e`) xibs ctbs}f) o`m zbil}lhoi l`x}odlil}|.Kozo` sbuim `b} exhfes ntee nibo}l`c. ]fexe tehe`} me~eibzae`}x meao`m o ès abmoil}| bnabè}ot| hbbzeto}lb` oab`c }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo) Kozo`) o`m }fe ZTH. B}fetslxe)OXEO@'8 slii ibxe l}x to}lbòie nbt x}eetl`c teclbòi ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo.




Hb`}e`}x

?. L`}tbmuh}lb` ................................................................................................................ 8

4.

]fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x Zbilh| Texzb`xe }b Ehb`balh Mbs`}ut` o`m Ilqulml}|Htlxlx; Oucux} 4::3‘Kuè 4:?: ................................................................................. =

4.? Etuz}lb` o`m Texbiu}lb` bn o Ilqulml}| Htlxlx; Bh}bdet 4::6‘Aothf 4::< ........ =4.4 Htlxlx Aoòceae`} o`m Aohtbehb`balh Zbilh| ............................................. ?:

8. Teclae Hfblhe nbt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x Evhfo`ce To}e Zbilh| .......................... ??

8.? Ntee Nibo}l`c .................................................................................................. ?48.4 Ilal}o}lb`x bn Ntee Nibo}l`c ............................................................................ ?=8.8 Doxge} Zeccl`c .............................................................................................. ?58.= O Seogi| Aoòcem Nibo} ............................................................................... ?6

=. Ztbxzeh}x nbt Teclbòi Abè}ot| o`m Nlò`hloi L`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo .................. ?6

=.? B~et~les ........................................................................................................ ?6=.4 Eaetce`he bn o` ’OXEO@'@es8‑ |uo` Oteo ................................................ ?<=.8 Ztbxzeh}x nbt Teclbòi L`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo ............................................. 4:

5. Hb`hiuml`c Teaotgx ............................................................................................... 4?

Tenete`hex ......................................................................................................................... 48

Ozze`mlv ............................................................................................................................. 4=




8

?. L@]TBMUH]LB@

]fe ?<<3‘?<<6 Oxlo` nlò`hloi htlxlx aotgem o so}etxfem l` teclbòi ehb`balh hbbzeto}lb` o`ml`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo. L} dtbucf} }b }fe nbte }fe èem nbt hibxet hbbzeto}lb` o`m hbbtmlò}lb` l`zbilh| oab`c }fe hbu`}tlex l` }fe teclb` l` zte~e`}l`c nu}ute htlxex. Teoil{l`c }fe èem) }fe}flt}ee` hbu`}tlex ntba }fe teclb` }fo} l`hiumex }fe Oxxbhlo}lb` bn Xbu}feox} Oxlo` @o}lb`x

Xl`he }fe`) }fe }flt}ee` hbu`}tlex fo~e hb`~et}em }fe HAL l`}b o aui}lio}etoi hutte`h| xsozocteeae`}‘HAL Aui}lio}etoil{o}lb` &HALA,”}fo} hb~etx oii OXEO@'8 aeadetx sl}f o }b}oioabu`} bn UX-?4: dliilb` nbt ilqulml}| xuzzbt}. Ztbctexx l` }fe ODAL fox dee` xibs) du} l} foxdee` l`x}tuae`}oi }b }fe hteo}lb` bn Oxlo` Db`m Nu`m &ODN, L o`m LL) o`m }b }fe ex}odilxfae`} bn oteclbòi hteml} cuoto`}ee x|x}ea7 l` }fe nu}ute l} ao| olm l` }fe hb`x}tuh}lb` bn o teclbòi hieotl`c

o`m xe}}ieae`} x|x}ea nbt htbxx!dbtmet db`m }to`xoh}lb`x.

&OXEO@,?:) }fe Zebzie“x Tezudilh bn Hflò &feteon}et ZTH,) Kozo`) o`m }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo”o ctbuz g`bs` ox OXEO@'8”octeem }b ex}odilxf ox o nltx} x}ez }bsotmx teclbòi hbbzeto}lb` ox|x}ea bn dlio}etoi hutte`h| xsozx) u`met }fe Hflo`c Aol L`l}lo}l~e &HAL,. L} sox mexlcèm }bztb~lme ilqulml}| xuzzbt} }b }fe aeadet hbu`}tlex xunnetl`c ntba xfbt}!tu` doio`he!bn!zo|ae`}xztbdieax. ]sb |eotx io}et) OXEO@'8 iou`hfem o`b}fet ztbctoa”}fe Oxlo` Db`m Aotge}xMe~eibzae`} L`l}lo}l~e &ODAL,”nbt }fe l`}ecto}lb` bn Eox} Oxlo“x teclbòi hozl}oi aotge}x.

Uìlge }fe ZTH o`m Kozo`) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo hbuim de db}f o zb}e`}loi ie`met }b) o`mdbttbset ntba) }fe HALA. Ox o xaoii) bze` ehb`ba|) l} sbuim deènl} abte ntba teclbòiehb`balh x}odlil}|. L} hbuim oixb xet~e ox o aemlo}bt de}see` }fe ZTH o`m Kozo` b` o slme to`cebn lxxuex b` sflhf }fe }sb hbu`}tlex mlxoctee. @b} xutztlxl`ci|) }fete sox o ceètoi hb`xe`xux}fo} }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo xfbuim zio| o` oh}l~e tbie l` ztbab}l`c OXEO@'8 ox o ntoaesbtg nbtteclbòi l`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo. Fbse~et) }fe 4::6 cibdoi nlò`hloi htlxlx fox hfo`cem }flxhb`xe`xux. L} fox hoiiem nbt o te~les bn }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x evhfo`ce to}e zbilh| o`m l}xx}to}ec| nbt teclbòi nlò`hloi o`m abè}ot| hbbzeto}lb` sl}fl` OXEO@'8.

]fe nlò`hloi htlxlx bn 4::6 sox }fe nltx} bzzbt}u`l}| }b zu} }fe HAL“x enneh}l~eèxx }b o aotge}}ex}. ]fe bu}hbae sox `b} teoxxutl`c. Oi}fbucf }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo sox l` mlte èem bn ilqulml}|

l` 4::6) l} xlazi| mlm `b} hb`xlmet ozztbohfl`c }fe HALA. L` noh} `bè bn }fe OXEO@'8 aeadetxxunnetl`c ntba o ilqulml}| mtbucf} mlm. @bt sete }fe ZTH bt Kozo` ztezotem }b bnnet o`| ilqulml}|oxxlx}o`he.

Ntba }fe decl``l`c) }fe tbie bn OXEO@'8 fox dee` hb`x}tolèm d| o ieometxflz ztbdieax}eaal`c ntba }fe iohg bn hbbzeto}lb` de}see` }fe ZTH o`m Kozo`”l}x }sb mbalò`}ehb`balex) sflhf fo~e `b} xee` e|e!}b!e|e b` ao`| teclbòi lxxuex. ]flx fox foazetem }feevzo`xlb` o`m hb`xbilmo}lb` bn }fe HALA. ]fe ieometxflz lxxue fox dehbae abte ztb`bu`hemsl}f }fe tlxe bn }fe ZTH ox o cibdoi ehb`balh zbset) aogl`c hbbzeto}lb` de}see` }fe ZTH o`mKozo` abte hbazilho}em o`m fe`he hox}l`c mbud} b` }fe nu}ute tbie bn OXEO@'8. L` }flx èsxe}}l`c) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo nl`mx msl`mil`c tbba }b aemlo}e de}see` }fe hb`nilh}l`c l`}etex}x bn}fe ZTH o`m Kozo`.

]fe zutzbxe bn }flx zozet lx }b oòi|{e }fe tbie bn }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo l` ztbab}l`c nlò`hloio`m abè}ot| hbbzeto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo. O hotenui evoalò}lb` bn }flx tbie meao`mx x}um| bn }feTezudilh bn Gbteo“x evzetle`he sl}f aoòcl`c }fe ilqulml}| htlxlx bn 4::6) nbt l} fom o mlteh}deotl`c b` hfot}l`c }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x x}to}ec| }bsotm teclbòi ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb`. Nbt}flx teoxb`) Hfoz}et 4 oòi|{ex aohtbehb`balh me~eibzae`}x }fo} fom decu` sl}f o` ehb`balhmbs`}ut` eoti| l` 4::6) nbiibsem d| nlò`hloi }utabli evohetdo}em d| o ilqulml}| htu`hf l` }fexehb`m foin bn 4::<) denbte nlò`hloi x}odlil}| te}utèm l` }fe xehb`m quot}et bn }fo} |eot. ]flxoòi|xlx lx }fe` hbazieae`}em d| o te~les bn }fe houxex o`m hb`xeque`hex bn }fe ilqulml}| htlxlx)




=

o`m }fe ao`èt l` sflhf }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x zbilh| ou}fbtl}lex texzb`mem }b l} mutl`c }flxzetlbm.

Xeh}lb` 8 mlxhuxxex }fe hfblhe bn o` ozztbztlo}e teclae nbt evhfo`ce to}e zbilh| l` }fe Tezudilhbn Gbteo. Fete l} lx otcuem }fo} mexzl}e l}x ilal}o}lb`x) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo slii zetxlx} sl}f oseogi| aoòcem nibo} }fo} l`~bgex nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} l`}et~e`}lb`x o`m hozl}oi hb`}tbisfeè~et nlò`hloi x}odlil}| lx }fteo}eèm d| o xutce l`) bt te~etxoi bn) hozl}oi l`nibsx houxem d|

xumme` hfo`cex l` aotge} evzeh}o}lb` o`m xzehuio}lb`. Xeh}lb` = evoalèx ztbxzeh}x nbt }feTezudilh bn Gbteo“x tbie l` culml`c abè}ot| o`m nlò`hloi hbbzeto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo. Xeh}lb` 5hb`hiumex.

4. ]FE TEZUDILH BN GBTEO“X ZBILH\ TEXZB@XE ]BEHB@BALH MBS@]UT@ O@M IL_ULML]\ HTLXLX; OUCUX]4::3‘KU@E 4:?:

4.? Etuz}lb` o`m Texbiu}lb` bn o Ilqulml}| Htlxlx; Bh}bdet 4::6‘Aothf4::<

Uìlge b}fet eaetcl`c aotge} ehb`balex) o} }fe decl``l`c bn }fe U`l}em X}o}ex &UX, xud!ztlaehtlxlx l} sox slmei| deile~em }fo} }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo sox seii zblxem }b menieh} bt omkux} }b }fehtlxlx sl}fbu} l`huttl`c auhf moaoce. L} fom duli} uz o huxflb` bn nbtelc` evhfo`ce texet~exevheeml`c UX-4>: dliilb` o} }fe e`m bn 4::3 &xee Nlcute ?,) sflhf sox xee` ox evhexxl~e d|ao`|) b` }bz bn fo~l`c xuhheemem l` x}te`c}fe`l`c l}x ehb`balh nu`moae`}oix }ftbucf ev}e`xl~eehb`balh tenbtax xl`he }fe ?<<3‘?<<6 nlò`hloi htlxlx.

Nlcute ?; ]te`m bn Nbtelc` Evhfo`ce Texet~ex l` }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo

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&Dliilb` UX-,

Xbuthe; Do`g bn Gbteo

Xl`he }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x nlò`hloi l`x}l}u}lb`x mlm `b} fbim xl{odie oabu`}x bn UX }bvlhoxxe}x) }fe bu}dteog bn }fe UX xud!ztlae htlxlx l}xein mlm `b} lazl`ce b` }felt xbu`mèxx bt mlxtuz}




5

}fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x x}bhg aotge}. L} sox oixb evzeh}em }fo} }fe nievldie evhfo`ce to}e x|x}easbuim ztb~lme o nltx} ilè bn mene`xe.

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4.?.? Tehexxlb` o`m Ilqulml}| htlxlx

\e}) uìlge b}fet eaetcl`c ehb`balex l` }fe teclb`) }feTezudilh bn Gbteo hbuim `b} o~blm o xe~ete UX mbiiot ilqulml}| htu`hf) sflhf ztb~bgem o xetlex bnxzehuio}l~e o}}ohgx b` l}x hutte`h|. L` te}tbxzeh}) l} lx u`quex}lbòdie }fo} }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteosox fl} fotmet }fo` b}fet ehb`balex l` }fe teclb`) ox l} sox }fe bì| hbu`}t| uòdie }b sotm bnn otu` b` }fe he`}toi do`g nbtelc` evhfo`ce texet~e sl}fbu} xehutl`c omml}lbòi nbtelc` hutte`h|ilqulml}| ntba }fe he`}toi do`gx bn }fe UX) }fe ZTH) o`m Kozo` &Zotg 4:?:,.

]fe cibdoi nlò`hloi htlxlx mlm `b} teohf }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo u`}li }fe iox} quot}et bn 4::67 auhfbn }fe ctbs}f xibsmbs` mutl`c }fe nltx} }ftee quot}etx sox dtbucf} b` d| seog mbaex}lh meao`m)sflhf sox l` zot} houxem d| }fe }lcf}et x}o`he bn abè}ot| o`m nlxhoi zbilh| hfbxe` d| }feTezudilh bn Gbteo“x zbilh|aogetx }b ottex} tozlmi| tlxl`c ztlhex.

Nlcute 4; Xb~etelc` Xzteomx; Nbtelc` Hutte`h| Me`balò}em Xb~etelc` Db`m Xzteomx

&~x UX ]teoxut| `b}e,

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ZTH Aoio|xlo L`mbèxlo Zflilzzlèx Tezudilh bn Gbteo

&u`l}; doxlx zbl`},

Xbuthe; Gbteo He`}et nbt L`}etò}lbòi Nlò`he

Fbse~et) }fe menlhl} b` }fe hutte`} ohhbu`} l` }fe nltx} foin bn 4::6 b` }bz bn }fe xibsmbs`

ozzeotx }b fo~e sbtxeèm }fe ztbxzeh}x nbt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x ehb`ba| e~e` denbte l} soxfl} d| o ilqulml}| htlxlx l` }fe }fltm quot}et bn }fe |eot.

Ox }fe UX xud!ztlae htlxlx xzteom }b b}fet zot}x bn }fe sbtim) nbtelc` l`~ex}btx o`m ie`metx deco`te}teo}l`c ntba Eox} Oxlo) }b meie~etoce o`m }b l`hteoxe }fe xfote bn xone oxxe}x l` }feltzbt}nbilbx. Hbazotem }b }fe tedoio`hl`c bn }felt zbt}nbilbx eixesfete l` Oxlo) nbtelc` l`~ex}btx

?Ohhbtml`c }b }fe L`}etò}lbòi Abè}ot| Nu`m &LAN,“x te~lxem hioxxlnlho}lb` bn }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce to}e otto`ceae`})

Gbteo“x evhfo`ce to}e x|x}ea lx hioxxlnlem ox nibo}l`c &LAN 4:?:,.




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ml~ex}em }feaxei~ex bn teio}l~ei| abte bn }felt fbiml`cx l` Gbteo` nlò`hloi oxxe}x) dehouxe }fe|sete iem }b deile~e }fo} me}etlbto}lb` l` xbae bn nlò`hloi aotge} l`mlho}btx aome }fe Tezudilh bnGbteo auhf abte ~uiètodie }b o nlò`hloi htlxlx }fo` b}fet eaetcl`c ehb`balex. Xl`he }feTezudilh bn Gbteo“x nlò`hloi aotge}x sete teio}l~ei| iotcet o`m abte ilqulm }fo` }fbxe bn b}fetEox} Oxlo` eaetcl`c ehb`balex) l} sox oixb eoxlet nbt }fea }b xeii bu} bn }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo.]fe xfote bn nbtelc` l`~ex}btx l` }fe hozl}oil{o}lb` bn }fe x}bhg aotge} sox hibxe }b 8?% o} }fee`m bn 4::3. O |eot io}et l} neii deibs 43%.

Nbtelc` do`gx fom oixb dehbae abte o~etxe }b teèsl`c }felt xfbt}!}eta ibo`x }b Gbteo`nlò`hloi l`x}l}u}lb`x) u`}li }fe| xos o` laztb~eae`} l` }fe hutte`} ohhbu`} o`m o de}}et ctbs}fztbxzeh} l` }fe eoti| ab`}fx bn 4::<. On}et }fe mealxe bn Iefao` Dtb}fetx l` Xez}eadet 4::6)Gbteo` do`gx sete l`hteoxl`ci| fotm!ztexxem }b tbii b~et }felt xfbt}!}eta nbtelc` hutte`h| ibo`x.O} }fe ibsex} zbl`} l` @b~eadet) }fe teèsoi to}e neii }b deibs =:% &]odie O? l` Ozze`mlv,. ]femehilè l` }fe tbiib~et to}e iem }b iotce hozl}oi bu}nibsx o`m o menlhl} b` }fe nlò`hloi ohhbu`} lòmml}lb` }b o hutte`} ohhbu`} menlhl} bn UX-3 dliilb`) ieoml`c }b o ibxx bn oiabx} 4:% ibxx l` nbtelcèvhfo`ce texet~ex.

@b} xutztlxl`ci|) }fexe menlhl}x dtbucf} odbu} o mbiiot ilqulml}| xfbt}oce o`m xudxeque`}i| hut}oliem}fe o~oliodlil}| bn nbtelc`!hutte`h| &abx}i| UX mbiiot, ibo`x. Tenieh}l`c }fe sbtxe`l`c bn }feilqulml}| htlxlx) db}f }fe xb~etelc` xzteom o`m hteml} menoui} xsoz &HMX, ztealuax deco` o x}eez

tlxe. O} }fe felcf} bn }fe htlxlx b` 43 Bh}bdet) }fe med} xzteom o`m HMX ztealua kuazem uz }b35? o`m 3:: doxlx zbl`}x texzeh}l~ei| &Nlcutex 4 o`m 8,) xe`ml`c nbtelc` l`~ex}btx“ hb`nlme`he l`}fe Gbteo` ehb`ba| htoxfl`c }b }fe db}}ba.

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]fe htlxlx fl} db}f x}bhgx o`m }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge}x fotm. On}et dteogl`c }fe 4):::!zbl`}ie~ei l` Bh}bdet 4::3) x}bhg ztlhex aeoxutem d| }fe Gbteo Hbazbxl}e X}bhg Ztlhe L`mev &GBXZL,deco` o xfotz xilme) noiil`c deibs ?)::: d| @b~eadet 4::6) bè bn }fe sbtx} zetnbtao`hexoab`c Eox} Oxlo“x x}bhg aotge}x &Nlcute =,.

Nlcute =; X}bhg Ztlhe Ab~eae`}x l` Eox} Oxlo

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XXHLE &Xfo`cfol, GBXZL &Tezudilh bn Gbteo, GIXE &Aoio|xlo,

X]L &Xl`cozbte, ]XEH &]folio`m,

Xbuthe; Oxlo Teclbòi L`}ecto}lb` He`}te bn Oxlo` Me~eibzae`} Do`g &OMD,) Ehb`balh o`m Nlò`hloi L`mlho}btx Mo}oDoxe) f}}z;""otlh.omd.btc"aohtbRl`mlho}btx.zfz

]fe `balòi evhfo`ce to}e) sflhf fom teaolèm deibs ?)::: sb` zet UX mbiiot mutl`c }fe nltx}

quot}et bn 4::6) deco` o xfotz meztehlo}lb` l` Oztli }b teohf o flcf bn ?)5?8 sb` zet UX mbiiot b`4= @b~eadet. Oab`c }fe Eox} Oxlo` hutte`hlex) }fe Gbteo` sb` ibx} abx} l` ~oiue ~lx!ê!~lx }feUX mbiiot }fo} |eot &Nlcute 5,.

]fe flcf mectee bn l`x}odlil}| l` }fe evhfo`ce to}e x}eax ntba }sb neo}utex bn }fe sb`!UX mbiiotaotge}. Nltx}i|) l} lx xaoii o`m xfoiibs) ox }fe ùadet bn aotge} zot}lhlzo`}x lx ilal}em. Bò~etoce) }fe ~biuae bn moli| nbtelc` evhfo`ce }toml`c sox iexx }fo` ?.<% bn ctbxx mbaex}lhztbmuh} &CMZ, l` 4::3. Dehouxe bn l}x xaoii xl{e o`m iohg bn ilqulml}|) }fe aotge} soxb~etsfeiaem d| o xetlex bn ev}etòi xfbhgx }fo} nbiibsem }fe hbiiozxe bn Iefao` Dtb}fetx)ztehlzl}o}l`c o iotce meztehlo}lb` o`m o slme to`ce bn niuh}uo}lb`x bn }fe evhfo`ce to}e. O`b}fetneo}ute lx }fo} hfo`cex l` }fe sb`"mbiiot evhfo`ce to}e fo~e dee` hibxei| il`gem sl}f hfo`cex l`x}bhg ztlhex. Ox o texui}) mtoao}lh hfo`cex l` x}bhg ztlhex fo~e }fetenbte dee` }to`xio}em l`}bequoii| iotce hfo`cex l` }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce to}e l` }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo &xee Nlcute >,.

]fete lx `b u`l~etxoii| ohhez}em menl`l}lb` bn o hutte`h| htlxlx. Du} sfe` o hutte`h| meztehlo}exd| abte }fo` =5% b~et o xlv!ab`}f zetlbm &Kui|‘@b~eadet,) o`m oiabx} 44% b~et o ab`}f ox l}mlm l` }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo l` Bh}bdet 4::6) l} aux} de xolm }b fo~e hbae u`met o xzehuio}l~eo}}ohg) sl}f l}x mbs`noii xute }b }buhf bnn o nlò`hloi htlxlx.

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X}bhg Ztlhe @b}e; ?, To}e bn hfo`cex l` seegi| o~etoce bn sb`"UX mbiiot evhfo`ce to}e o`m Gbteo Hbazbxl}e X}bhg Ztlhe L`mev

Xbuthe; Do`g bn Gbteo

4.?.4 Houxex bn }fe Htlxlx

O} }fe decl``l`c bn }fe htlxlx) }fete aux} fo~e dee` x}tuh}utoi ~uiètodlil}lex bn }fe ehb`ba| o`mme}etlbto}lb` l` aohtbehb`balh l`mlho}btx }fo} ntlcf}eèm nbtelc` ie`metx o`m l`~ex}btx }b tuxf }b}fe evl} e` aoxxe. Sete }fe| xetlbux e`bucf }b zbxe x|x}ealh tlxg }b }fe ehb`ba| l` ceètoi)o`m }fe nlò`hloi x|x}ea l` zot}lhuiot2

Zotg &4:?:, fox lme`}lnlem o ùadet bn x}tuh}utoi seogèxxex bn }fe Gbteo` ehb`ba|) sflhf setebn}e` hiolaem d| nbtelc` oòi|x}x }b fo~e dee` o} }fe tbb} bn }fe ilqulml}| htlxlx. B` }fe teoi xlme bn}fe ehb`ba|) }fe aol` huiztl} nbt }fe tehexxlb` o`m hutte`h| xzehuio}lb` sox ~o`lxfl`c evzbt}aotge}x. ]fe hb`he`}to}lb` bn evzbt}x l` o ilal}em ùadet bn aoùnoh}utex o`m ztbmuhetx soxo`b}fet houxe bn }fe meezet tehexxlb`. L` 4::3) 53% bn }b}oi evzbt}x sete xflzzem bu} d| nbutl`mux}tlex”ou}babdlie) xflzduliml`c) eieh}tb`lhx) o`m hfealhoix. B~et }fe zox} mehome) }fe }bz}e` evzbt} ztbmuh}x hbaztlxem abte }fo` >5% bn }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x }b}oi evzbt}x) ox xfbs`l` ]odie O4 l` }fe Ozze`mlv. ]fe }e` iotcex} l`mux}tloi ctbuzx aome uz 6:% bn }fe Tezudilh bnGbteo“x }b}oi evzbt}x l` 4::3. O xe}dohg l` evzbt} eot`l`cx sbuim }fe` u`metalè }fe nlò`hloifeoi}f bn }fe ctbuzx }fo} hb`x}l}u}e }fe dohgdbè bn }fe Gbteo` ehb`ba|. ]fe cibdoi meao`m nbtaoùnoh}utex lx abte l`hbae eiox}lh }fo` b}fet ho}ecbtlex bn evzbt}x) o`m fe`he abte xe`xl}l~e}b h|hilhoi niuh}uo}lb`x bn }fe cibdoi ehb`ba|. Ox xfbs` d| Dio`hfotm &4::<,) hbazotem }b

hbu`}tlex sl}f o ml~etxlnlem alv bn evzbt} ztbmuh}x) }fbxe sl}f o feo~| hb`he`}to}lb` l` o ilal}emùadet bn aoùnoh}utem evzbt} cbbmx sete fl} fotmet d| }fe 4::6 cibdoi nlò`hloi htlxlx.

]fexe ~uiètodlil}lex bn o` evzbt}!iem teclae sete evohetdo}em d| }fe me}etlbto}lb` l` o ùadetbn aohtbehb`balh o`m nlò`hloi l`mlho}btx”}fe eaetce`he bn o hutte`} ohhbu`} menlhl} l` }fe nltx}foin bn 4::6) o xfotz l`hteoxe l` xfbt}!}eta ev}etòi med} ox o zethe`}oce bn nbtelc` evhfo`ce




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texet~ex) o`m o tlxe l` do`gx“ ibo`!mezbxl} to}lb.4

]fexe aohtbehb`balh sbex sete nut}fet occto~o}em d| o xudx}o`}loi l`hteoxe l` db}f ao}utl}|o`m hutte`h| alxao}hfl`c l` }fe doio`he xfee}x bn do`gx o`m b}fet nlò`hloi l`x}l}u}lb`x) o`mu`mlxhlzilèm hozl}oi ohhbu`} ildetoil{o}lb`

Sflie }fete ote mbud}x ox }b sfe}fet }fexel`mlho}btx ote teilodie aeoxutex bn x|x}ealh tlxg) }fete sox il}}ie mbud} }fo} }fe| fom sbtxeèmauhf abte l` }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo hbazotem sl}f b}fet eaetcl`c ehb`balex l` Eox} Oxlo).

8

4.4 Htlxlx Aoòceae`} o`m Aohtbehb`balh Zbilh|

. ]fe io}}et xe} bnn aoxxl~e hozl}oi bu}nibsx l` }fe nbta

bn zbt}nbilb l`~ex}ae`}x odtbom d| }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x l`x}l}u}lbòi o`m ztl~o}e l`~ex}btx l`4::> o`m 4::3) }fe duig bn sflhf sete nlò`hem d| xfbt}!}eta ev}etòi dbttbsl`c &Zotg 4:?:,.Huauio}l~ei|) oii }fexe ntoclil}lex sete xetlbux e`bucf }b }tlccet o` b~etteoh}lb` b` }fe zot} bnnbtelc` l`~ex}btx) ziohl`c }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo l` o htlxlx {bè d| }fe e`m bn Xez}eadet 4::6.

Nohem sl}f o msl`mil`c evzbt} aotge}) mbiiot ilqulml}| xfbt}oce) o`m }fe ztbxzeh} bn o ib`c mtos`!bu} tehb~et|) }fe Gbteo` cb~etàe`} xe} bu} }b lazieae`} o }ftee!ztb`cem x}to}ec| nbt htlxlxaoòceae`}. ]flx hb`xlx}em bn evzo`xlbòt| abè}ot| o`m nlxhoi zbilh|) ntee nibo}l`chbazieae`}em d| xehutl`c omml}lbòi nbtelc` evhfo`ce texet~ex) o`m o xsln} tex}tuh}utl`c bnolil`c do`gx o`m nltax. ]fe Do`g bn Gbteo ibsetem l}x doxe to}e) o`m }fe nlxhoi ou}fbtl}lex

l`}tbmuhem }sb nlxhoi x}lauiux zohgocex nbt 4::<) oabu`}l`c }b 4% o`m ?.3% bn CMZ)texzeh}l~ei|.

Ox o }tome bnn nbt x}lauio}l`c mbaex}lh meao`m) }fete sox o flcf ztbdodlil}| }fo} evzo`xlbòt|abè}ot| o`m nlxhoi zbilh| sbuim sbtxe` }fe hutte`} ohhbu`} o`m l`muhe hozl}oi bu}nibsx.Teoil{l`c }flx) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x zbilh| ou}fbtl}lex tentolèm ntba l`}et~e`l`c l` }fe nbtelcèvhfo`ce aotge} sl}f }fe deilen }fo} o iotce meztehlo}lb` sbuim feiz abmeto}e me}etlbto}lb` l` }fehutte`} ohhbu`} o`m ceèto}e evzeh}o}lb`x bn ozztehlo}lb`. O} }fe xoae }lae) }fe| xbucf} }bzte~e`} xzehuio}l~e o}}ohg d| tezie`lxfl`c nbtelc` evhfo`ce texet~ex }ftbucf ev}etòi dbttbsl`co`m hutte`h| xsozx sl}f }fe UX) }fe ZTH) o`m Kozo`. Ox }fe| mlm mutl`c }fe ?<<3 Oxlo` nlò`hloihtlxlx) }fe Gbteo` cb~etàe`} oixb xbucf} }b tex}bte nbtelc` l`~ex}btx“ hb`nlme`he l` }fe ehb`ba|d| lxxul`c xb~etelc` cuoto`}eex b` ès nbtelc` ibo`x ao}utl`c denbte }fe e`m bn Kuè 4::<) uz

}b UX-?:: dliilb` l` ~oiue) b` Bh}bdet ?4) 4::6. Fbse~et) xlaliot cuoto`}eex fom noliem }b oiio|neotx bn nlò`hloi aei}mbs` o} }fe decl``l`c bn }fe Oxlo` htlxlx l` ?<<3) o`m }flx }lae }fe| noliemocol`.

Ox l` ?<<3) }fe aotge} sox `b} zetxuomem d| }fexe aeoxutex. Bì| sfe` }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteoxehutem o xsoz ilè oabu`}l`c }b UX-8: dliilb` ntba }fe UX Nemetoi Texet~e b` 8: Bh}bdet)4::6 mlm }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} xe}}ie mbs` xbaesfo}) du} `b} nbt ~et| ib`c) ox }feevhfo`ce to}e xfb} uz }b ?)5?8 sb` zet mbiiot }ftee seegx on}et }fe xsoz sox o``bu`hem &Nlcute3,. ]fe xsoz sox ozzote`}i| `b} e`bucf }b teab~e u`het}ol`}lex xuttbu`ml`c }fe Tezudilh bnGbteo“x odlil}| }b xet~lhe l}x nbtelc` med}) l` ~les bn iotce oabu`}x bn db`mx feim d| nbtelc`l`~ex}btx ao}utl`c o`m iotce ùadetx bn nbtelc` ibo`x }b de teèsem l` }fe nltx} quot}et bn 4::<.]fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo xudxeque`}i| xuhheemem l` otto`cl`c sb`!ibhoi hutte`h| xsozx sl}f }fe

4O` b~etoii tlxg to`gl`c bn eaetcl`c ehb`balex hb`x}tuh}em d| }fe do`g FXDH l` }etax bn }fe }ftee l`mlho}btx ziohem

Gbteo ox }fe }fltm abx} ~uiètodie }b o hutte`h| htlxlx oab`c eaetcl`c ehb`balex. Xee ]fe Ehb`balx}) ?5‘4?Nedtuot| 4::<.8

On}et }fe ?<<3 Oxlo` nlò`hloi htlxlx) Gbteo“x nlò`hloi tecuio}bt| ou}fbtl}lex l`x}l}u}em o ùadet bn ztume`}loitecuio}bt| aeoxutex }b al`lal{e }fe l`hlme`he bn }fe }sb doio`he xfee} alxao}hfex) du} }fexe tex}tlh}lb`x sete `b}enneh}l~e l` }fe do`gl`c l`mux}t|) sflhf sox e`cocem l` oxxe} }to`xnbtao}lb` bn xfbt}!}eta ilodlil}lex l`}b ib`c!}etaoxxe}x o`m sflhf sox uòdie }b dbttbs ntba odtbom l` }fe mbaex}lh hutte`h| &Zotg 4:?:,.




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Xbuthe; Do`g bn Gbteo) Ehb`balh X}o}lx}lhx X|x}ea) f}}z;""ehbx.dbg.bt.gt" .

]fexe omml}lbòi xsozx) }bce}fet sl}f }fe teèsoi bn }fe Nemetoi Texet~e xsoz o`m o hutte`}ohhbu`} x}tb`cet }fo` evzeh}em ozzeot }b fo~e hoiaem mbs` }fe aotge} nbt o sflie. Du}}feteon}et }fe evhfo`ce to}e se`} b` o tbiiet hbox}et tlme) xfbb}l`c uz }b ?)538 sb` zet mbiiot b`8 Aothf 4::< denbte noiil`c deibs ?)8:: o} }fe e`m bn Kuè.

Sox }flx }ftee!zot} x}to}ec| enneh}l~e2 Xe~etoi zlehex bn e~lme`he) l`hiuml`c o xudx}o`}loilaztb~eae`} l` }fe hutte`} ohhbu`} o`m zbxl}l~e ctbs}f) quot}et b` quot}et) l` }fe nltx} }sbquot}etx bn 4::<) xuccex} }fo} l} sox. Abte lazbt}o`}i|) nbt oii ztoh}lhoi zutzbxex }fe ilqulml}| htlxlxsox b~et d| }fe e`m bn }fe nltx} quot}et bn 4::<. Sflhf aeoxute bn }fe }ftee!zot} x}to}ec| fomdee` abte enneh}l~e l` }ut`l`c otbu`m }fe htlxlx2 Abx} oòi|x}x sbuim octee }fo} }fe UX NemetoiTexet~e zio|em o ho}oi|}lh tbie l` laztb~l`c }fe aotge} xe`}lae`}x odbu} }fe ztbxzeh} nbt }feGbteo` ehb`ba|.

8. Teclae Hfblhe nbt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x Evhfo`ce To}eZbilh|

Ilge ao`| b}fet eaetcl`c ehb`balex) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo fox o teio}l~ei| iotce aeù bnhfblhex nbt l}x evhfo`ce to}e teclae. L} hbuim x}o| b` sl}f o aoòcem nibo} bt l`meze`me`}i|

=Kozo` sox tezbt}em }b fo~e dee` teiuh}o`} }b bnnet o |e`!sb` xsoz ilè. L} oxgem }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo }b ozztbohf

}fe LAN ln abte ilqulml}| sox èemem ox o hb`ml}lb` nbt }fe xsoz. ]fe xsoz ilè sox l`hiumem l` }fe HAL Kozo`!Gbteodlio}etoi xsoz.

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nibo}l`c) ox l} fox mbè xb not) bt xfln} }b el}fet ntee nibo}l`c bt zeccl`c }b o doxge} bn }fehutte`hlex bn l}x aokbt }toml`c zot}ètx. Ox mlxhuxxem l` }fe zte~lbux xeh}lb`) }fe htlxlxevzetle`he tolxex xbae mbud}x ox }b }fe ennlhle`h| bn ntee nibo}l`c l` feoml`c bnn ev}etòi nlò`hloixfbhgx o`m x}odlil{l`c mbaex}lh nlò`hloi aotge}x. Fbse~et) èl}fet mbex }fe doxge} zec ozzeot}b de o teoilx}lh bz}lb`. ]flx oxxexxae`} ieo~ex aoòcem nibo}l`c ox }fe abx} ozztbztlo}e hfblhenbt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x evhfo`ce to}e teclae) xl`he }fe evhfo`ce to}e lx exxe`}loii| aotge}me}etalèm) du} }fe abè}ot| ou}fbtl}| fox tbba }b hfo`ce }fe ie~ei bn }fe evhfo`ce to}e sl}fbu}xzehln|l`c o xzehlnlh evhfo`ce to}e zo}f bt }otce}.

8.? Ntee Nibo}l`c

Sfe` }fe htlxlx dtbge bu} io}e l` ?<<3) b` }fe L`}etò}lbòi Abè}ot| Nu`m &LAN,“xtehbaae`mo}lb`) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo ab~em }b ombz} o nievldie evhfo`ce to}e x|x}ea ox oaeo`x bn x}eaal`c hozl}oi bu}nibsx o`m }b tex}bte doio`he b` }fe hutte`} ohhbu`}. Xl`he }fe`)ohhbtml`c }b }fe LAN oxxexxae`} bn evhfo`ce teclaex bn l}x aeadetx) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“xevhfo`ce to}e teclae fom dee` hioxxlnlem ox l`meze`me`}i| nibo}l`c. U`met }flx teclae) }feevhfo`ce to}e lx aotge}!me}etalèm ox l` aoòcem nibo}l`c) du} }fe abè}ot| ou}fbtl}| ao|l`}et~eè l` }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} abx}i| }b temuhe }fe oazil}ume bn niuh}uo}lb`x l` }feevhfo`ce to}e) to}fet }fo` l}x ie~ei) l` }fe xfbt}!tu`.

L` 4::<) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo sox tehioxxlnlem ox o nibo}et. Ohhbtml`c }b }fe ès LAN menl`l}lb`)l`meze`me`}i| o`m aoòcem nibo}l`c ote xudxuaem u`met o xl`cie ho}ecbt|. L` }flx hioxxlnlho}lb`)nibo}l`c mbex `b} aeo` }b}oi odx}lè`he ntba aotge} l`}et~e`}lb`. Xe~etoi zlehex bn e~lme`hexuccex} }fo} xl`he }fe l`}tbmuh}lb` bn l`meze`me`}i| nibo}l`c) }fe Gbteo` ou}fbtl}lex fo~e `b} deeò~etxe }b l`}et~e`l`c l` }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} }b l`muhe meztehlo}lb` bt zte~e`}ozztehlo}lb` bn }fe Gbteo` sb`. Nbt }flx teoxb`) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x evhfo`ce teclae lxhibxet }b aoòcem nibo}l`c.

]fe abè}ot| ou}fbtl}| fox l`}et~eèm `b} bì| }b zte~e`} evhexxl~e meztehlo}lb` bt ozztehlo}lb`bn }fe sb`"mbiiot evhfo`ce to}e) bt }b temuhe l}x ~bio}lil}| otbu`m }fe }te`m) du} oixb b` ao`|bhhoxlb`x }b laztb~e }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x evzbt} hbaze}l}l~eèxx &Zotg o`m Gla 4::6,. Ztlaonohle e~lme`he nbt }flx }|ze bn l`}et~e`}lb` lx o iotce ohhuauio}lb` bn nbtelc` evhfo`ce texet~ex)sflhf oabu`}em }b oiabx} UX-8:: dliilb` d| }fe e`m bn 4:?:. ]flx e~lme`he lx oixb hbttbdbto}emd| }fe nteque`h| ex}lao}ex bn l`}et~e`}lb` ox xfbs` l` Nlcute 6 o`m ]odie O8 l` }fe Ozze`mlv)sflhf tbucfi| hbttexzb`m }b x}odlil}| l`mlhex xuccex}em d| Do|bual o`m Elhfe`ctee` &?<<6, o`mDolc &4:::, l` Nlcute <) sfete ibset l`mlhex hbttexzb`m }b abte l`}e`xl~e l`}et~e`}lb`x l` }fenbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} d| }fe ou}fbtl}lex.

5

]fe nteque`h| bn aotge} l`}et~e`}lb`) }bce}fet sl}f o ~lxuoi l`xzeh}lb` bn }fe mo}o) oixb xuccex}}fo} }fe Gbteo` ou}fbtl}lex fom oh}l~ei| dee` e`cocem l` x}odlil{l`c }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x teoienneh}l~e evhfo`ce to}e de}see` 4::4 o`m 4::=) ox xfbs` l` Nlcute ?:. Nbt }fe }ftee |eotx uz }b4::3) }fe nteque`h| bn l`}et~e`}lb`x mehilèm hb`xlmetodi| ox }fe Gbteo` ou}fbtl}lex sete }t|l`c}b e`clèet o ctomuoi ozztehlo}lb` bn }fe sb` }b }tla o ctbsl`c xutziux b` }fe hutte`} ohhbu`}.

]fe htlxlx sox o dl}}et teal`met }fo} }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo mlm `b} fo~e ao`| ziohex }b }ut` }b nbtmbiiot ilqulml}| sfe` l} èemem l} abx}. L} oixb u`metxhbtem }fe èem }b fbim o iotce oabu`} bnnbtelc` evhfo`ce texet~ex nbt xein!l`xuto`he. @b} xutztlxl`ci|) }fetenbte) xl`he x}odlil}| l` }fenbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} sox tex}btem l` }fe xehb`m foin bn 4::<) }fe Gbteo` ou}fbtl}lex fo~edee` l`}et~e`l`c feo~li| ocol` }b ceèto}e o`m x}etlil{e hutte`} ohhbu`} xutziuxex.

5Nbiibsl`c Do|bual o`m Elhfe`ctee` &?<<6,) }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce to}e nievldlil}| lx ex}lao}em ox nbiibsx; L`mev

1XMEV"&XMEV'XMTE^, sfete XMEV1 x}o`motm me~lo}lb` bn evhfo`ce to}e hfo`cex) o`m XMTE^1x}o`motm me~lo}lb`bn }fe to}lb bn hfo`cex l` nbtelc` texet~ex ml~lmem d| ioccem doxe abè|.




?8

Nlcute 6; Nteque`h| bn }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x L`}et~e`}lb`x l` }fe Sb`"Mbiiot Nbtelc`Evhfo`ce Aotge}

:

5

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?5

4:

45

8:

85

=:

=5

4::8 4::= 4::5 4::> 4::3 4::6 4::< 4:?:

@b}e; ?, ]fe |eot bn 4:?: l`hiumex }fe ab`}fx ntba Ko`uot| }b Xez}eadet Xbuthe; Zotg o`m Gla &4::6, o`m ou}fbt“x ex}lao}ex

Nlcute <; Sb`"Mbiiot Evhfo`ce To}e Nievldlil}| L`mev

:

:.:5

:.?

:.?5

:.4

:.45

:.8

:.85

<4 <= <> <6 :: :4 := :> :6

@b}e; ?, Ou}fbt“x ex}lao}ex doxem b` Do|bual o`m Elhfe`ctee` &?<<6,

Xbuthe; Ou}fbt“x hoihuio}lb`x




?=

8.4 Ilal}o}lb`x bn Ntee Nibo}l`c

]fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x evzetle`he sl}f }fe ilqulml}| htlxlx aoòceae`} ztexe`}x o`b}fet zlehebn e~lme`he }fo} ntee nibo}l`c ao| `b} abmeto}e hozl}oi bu}nibsx b`he o htlxlx dteogx bu}) o`mfe`he x}bz o tu` b` }fe he`}toi do`g texet~e. Ox lx seii g`bs`) }flx sbuim fozze` ln }fe nbtao}lb`bn evzeh}o}lb`x sete ev}tozbio}l~e) houxl`c xzehuio}lb` l` }fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} }b zu} }fe

`balòi evhfo`ce to}e b` o` lazibxl~e }tokeh}bt|.

>

O meztehlo}lb` bn oiabx} 5:% b~et o }ftee!ab`}f zetlbm u`}li @b~eadet 4::6 mlm `b} x}bzxzehuio}btx ntba muazl`c }felt fbiml`cx bn }fe ibhoi hutte`h|. Hutte`h| xzehuio}btx mlm `b} x}bzxeiil`c }fe sb` on}et l} fom hieoti| meztehlo}em deibs l}x ib`c!tu` equlildtlua. L` noh}) }fe| mlm `b}xeea }b hote }b g`bs sfo} }fe ib`c tu` ~oiue bn }fe hutte`h| sox sfe` }fe hbu`}t| sox x}eezeml` o htlxlx. U`met }fexe hlthuax}o`hex) }fete lx `b teoxb` }b deile~e }fo} o nut}fet meztehlo}lb`hbuim fo~e x}bzzem hozl}oi bu}nibsx.

Nlcute ?:; @balòi o`m Teoi Enneh}l~e Evhfo`ce To}ex bn }fe Gbteo` Sb`

5:

>:

3:

6:

<:

?::

??:

?4:

<= <> <6 :: :4 := :> :6 ?:

@baloi enneh}l~e evhfo`ce to}e Teoi enneh}l~e evhfo`ce to}e

@b}e; ?, ]fe tlxe bn }fe l`mev l`mlho}ex ozztehlo}lb`.

Xbuthe; Do`g bn L`}etò}lbòi Xe}}ieae`}x

> Defo~lbtoi ehb`balx}x fo~e ib`c otcuem }fo} fuao` del`cx }e`m }b de }bb hb`nlme`} bn }felt bs` odlil}lex o`m }e`m }bev}tozbio}e tehe`} }te`mx l`}b }fe nu}ute‘o hbadlò}lb` }fo} ao| hb`}tldu}e }b duddiex. Io`xl`c &4::>, fox me~eibzemo` oxxe} ztlhl`c abmei sfete ev}tozbio}l~e evzeh}o}lb`x ho` ceèto}e evhexx ~bio}lil}| bn x}bhg ztlhex) }lae!~ot|l`c~bio}lil}| bn te}ut`x) ib`c!fbtl{b` ztemlh}odlil}| bn te}ut`x) duddiex mtl~e` d| bz}lalxa odbu} }fe nu}ute) o`m xfotzmbs`sotm ab~eae`}x l` x}bhg ztlhex }fo} texeadie aotge} htoxfex. Oii bn }fexe neo}utex ozzeot }b de ztexe`} l` ib`c!tu` UX x}bhg aotge} mo}o.




?>

}fe lazoh} bn }fe cibdoi ehb`balh htlxlx b` teclb`oi hutte`h| ab~eae`}x) o`m }b o~blm o xoaziedlox houxem d| }fe ZTH“x te}ut` }b o mbiiot zec.

&?,

Sfete lx }fe mbiiot evhfo`ce to}e bn }fe l}f hbu`}t| o} }lae }) o`m }fe |uo`"mbiiot o`m

|e`"mbiiot evhfo`ce to}ex. Oii ~otlodiex ote l` `o}utoi ibc.




?3

]odie ?; Enneh}x bn Hfo`ce l` }fe \uo`"Mbiiot To}e b` }fe Evhfo`ce To}e bn Eox} Oxlo`Hutte`hlex

@b}ex ; &?, Nlcutex l` zote`}fexex ote }!x}o}lx}lhx7 &4, ++ o`m + me`b}e xlc`lnlho`he o} ?% o`m 5% ie~ei) texzeh}l~ei|7 &8,Ex}lao}ex bn }fe hb`x}o`} }etax ote b} tezbt}em nbt }fe iohg bn xzohe7 &=, M!S; Mutdl`!So}xb` X}o}lx}lhx7 &5, Xoazie zetlbm;44 Kui| 4::5‘8: Kuè 4::67 Tez.Gbteo 1 ]fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo

Xbuthe; Ou}fbt“x ex}lao}lb`.

]fe ex}lao}lb` texui}x xfbs }fo} }fe xlc` bn }fe hbennlhle`} bn }fe |uo`"mbiiot evhfo`ce to}e lxzbxl}l~e o`m x}o}lx}lhoii| xlc`lnlho`}. O bè zethe`}oce zbl`} hfo`ce l` }fe |uo`"mbiiot evhfo`ceto}e ieomx }b :.>4% hfo`ce l` }fe sb`"mbiiot evhfo`ce to}e mutl`c }fe xoazie zetlbm.

3

O} }fe xoae }lae) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo slii de odie }b hu} l`}b }fe ZTH“x evzbt} aotge}x l` }feUX o`m Eutbze. Nbt }fexe teoxb`x) }fe aotge} evzeh}x }fo} |uo` ozztehlo}lb` sbuim laztb~e }feTezudilh bn Gbteo“x hutte`} ohhbu`} o`m mtl~e uz }fe ~oiue bn }fe sb` teio}l~e }b }fe UX mbiiot.Dehouxe bn }flx aotge} teoh}lb`) }fe mbiiot evhfo`ce to}ex bn }fe ZTH o`m }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteoote ilgei| }b ab~e }bce}fet. B`he o doxge} zec lx ombz}em) }fe ab~eae`}x bn }fe }sb hutte`hlexsbuim de auhf hibxet }fo` l` }fe hoxe bn nibo}l`c.

E~e` l` onibo}l`c teclae) }fe sb` fox ab~em hibxei| sl}f }fe |uo`. ]flx hibxe oxxbhlo}lb` fox zte~oliem)dehouxe) cl~e` }fe ~et}lhoi l`}to!l`mux}t| }tome l`}ecto}lb`) b}fet }fl`cx del`c equoi) oòzztehlo}lb` bn }fe |uo` slii temuhe }fe ZTH“x evzbt}x }b }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo. Fbse~et) l} lx `b}hieot sfo} slii fozze` }b }fe ZTH“x lazbt}x ntba }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo. ]fe ~et}lhoi l`}ecto}lb` l`}tome xuccex}x }fo} }fe ZTH“x lazbt}x ao| noii to}fet }fo` l`hteoxe. Du} e~e` l` }fo} hoxe) ln }fembiiot evhfo`ce to}e bn }fe Gbteo` sb` teaol`x u`hfo`cem) }fe ZTH“x lazbt}x bn l`}etaemlo}eztbmuh}x ntba }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo l` |uo` slii de hfeozet }fo` denbte o`m fe`he slii `b} noii ox

auhf ox }fe| sbuim b}fetslxe.

]fe l`hteoxe l` l`}to!l`mux}t| }tome sl}f) o`m cebctozflhoi ztbvlal}| }b) }fe ZTH xuccex} }fo} }feTezudilh bn Gbteo ao| deènl} ntba nbtal`c o hutte`h| u`lb` sl}f }fe ZTH) du} ox xfbs` d| Zotgo`m Xb`c &4:??,) ox not ox texzb`xl~eèxx }b ~otlbux xfbhgx lx hb`hetèm) }fe| ote ox|aae}tlh.@el}fet }fe meao`m `bt }fe xuzzi| xfbhgx bn }fe }sb hbu`}tlex ote flcfi| hbtteio}em. Cibdoi

xfbhgx ohhbu`} nbt bè }fltm bn bu}zu} ~otlo}lb`x l` }fe ZTH) du} l} lx teclbòi xfbhgx }fo} houxeteio}l~ei| iotce ~otlo}lb`x l` mbaex}lh bu}zu} l` }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo. ]fexe ox|aae}tlh neo}utexao| dehbae iexx mlx}l`h} b~et }lae) ox hb`xuaz}lb` o`m hozl}oi cbbmx ox o xfote bn l`}to!l`mux}t|}tome de}see` }fe }sb hbu`}tlex l`hteoxe. @e~et}feiexx) ln }fe Hoòmo!UX evhfo`ce to}e

3L} xfbuim oixb de `b}em }fo} }fe hb!ab~eae`}x bn }fe mbiiot evhfo`ce to}ex bn }fexe xoazie ehb`balex sl}f }fe

|uo`"mbiiot evhfo`ce to}e hbuim texui} zot}i| ntba }fe xfbhgx }b }fe UX ehb`ba|) sflhf hfo`ce }fe b~etoii ~oiue bn }feUX mbiiot ~lx!ê!~lx }fe b}fet hutte`hlex l`hiuml`c }fbxe bn Eox} Oxlo` ehb`balex

ôtlodiex L`mbèxloTuzlof"UX-

Tez.GbteoSb`"UX-

Aoio|xlo&Tl`ccl}"UX-,

Zflilzzlèx&Zexb"UX-,

Xl`cozbte&X-"UX-,

]olzel)Hflò&@]-"UX-,

]folio`m&Dof}"UX-,

!:.:5: !:.:8? !:.::3 !:.:>? !:.:5> :.:53 !:.?38++

&!?.866, &!:.6?4, &!:.?<=, &!?.>3?, &!?.><:, &?.><>, &!5.?:<,

!:.:6< :.:58++ :.::5 :.?>6++

&!4.=6:, &?.86:, &:.?=:, &=.<<6,

:.?:5 :.>?< :.5:5++ :.484++ :.=<?+ :.=88++ :.=36++ ++ &:.>??, &=.853, &5.>54, &?.<88, &>.?34, &5.3=?, &=.=:=,:.:>5 :.::6+ :.::5 !:.:5? :.?88 :.?4:++ :.?=>++ ++

&4.:>4, &:.:4<, &:.84?, &!:.><:, &<.?46, &6.55<, &3.464,

M!S ?.<6? 4.:?3 4.:=8 4.::8 4.:4= ?.<<4 4.:48

:.:?3 :.:85 :.:== :.::6 :.?6: :.?56 :.?>>




?6

teio}lb`xflz lx o`| culme) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo lx flcfi| uìlgei| }b exhfes l}x hutte`} teclae bnntee nibo}l`c l` no~bt bn o doxge} zec.

8.= O Seogi| Aoòcem Nibo}

Ln èl}fet ntee nibo}l`c `bt doxge} zeccl`c lx o sbtgodie evhfo`ce to}e teclae) }fe Tezudilh bn

Gbteo sbuim deènl} abx} ntba o seogi| aoòcem nibo}; ntee nibo}l`c sl}f o ztume`}loi x|x}ea bnhozl}oi hb`}tbix o`m nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge} l`}et~e`}lb`x. L` }flx tecotm) Hoòmo“x evzetle`hesl}f ntee nibo}l`c lx l`x}tuh}l~e nbt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x teclae hfblhe.

Hoòmo o`m }fe UX xfote }fe xoae bze` dbtmet o`m hui}utoi fetl}oce) o`m uxe }fe xoaeio`cuoce. Abte }fo` 35% bn Hoòmo“x evzbt}x sete xflzzem }b }fe UX l` 4::<) o`m abte }fo`5?% bn l}x lazbt}x btlclò}em }fete. L` ao`| ehb`balh texzeh}x) }fe ZTH lx }b }fe Tezudilh bnGbteo sfo} }fe UX lx }b Hoòmo. \e} Hoòmo mbex `b} ozzeot }b deile~e }fo} l} lx l` l}x l`}etex} }bnbta o hutte`h| u`lb` sl}f }fe UX. Hl}l`c }fe ox|aae}t| bn xfbhgx o`m }fe ibxx bn abè}ot|l`meze`me`he) sflhf sbuim xudkeh} Hoòmo }b UX abè}ot| zbilh|) Autto| &4:::, otcuem ocol`x}}fe hteo}lb` bn o Hoòmo!UX abè}ot| u`lb`. ]flexxe` &4:::, o`m Mbmce &4::5, oixb quex}lbèm}fe ehb`balh ~lodlil}| bn xuhf o u`lb`) b` }fe ctbu`mx }fo} l} sbuim }fteo}e` Hoòmo“x abè}ot|l`meze`me`he.

Nbt o xlaliot teoxb`) abè}ot| l`meze`me`he) sflhf ao| x|adbil{e o`m feiz ztb}eh} }feTezudilh bn Gbteo“x zbil}lhoi l`meze`me`he) slii e~e`}uoii| mlh}o}e }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x mehlxlb`}b x}o| b` sl}f ntee nibo}l`c. Fbse~et }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo“x evhfo`ce teclae lx `b} cbl`c }b deo zute nibo}; l} slii de hbazieae`}em d| l`}et~e`}lb` l` nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge}x o`m hozl}oihb`}tbix }b de l`~bgem sfeè~et o iotce l`hteoxe l` bt xumme` te~etxoi bn hozl}oi l`nibsx) houxemd| hfo`cex l` aotge} evzeh}o}lb`x) }fteo}e`x nlò`hloi x}odlil}|.6

=. ZTBXZEH]X NBT TECLB@OI AB@E]OT\ O@M NL@O@HLOI

L@]ECTO]LB@ L@ EOX] OXLO

]fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo fox oixbdee` evzibtl`c }fe zbxxldlil}| bn l`}etò}lbòil{l`c l}x hutte`h|) sl}f }fe evzeh}o}lb` }fo} xuhf o}to`xnbtao}lb` sbuim feiz }fe hbu`}t| }b dbttbs odtbom l` sb`.

=.? B~et~les

Xl`he }fe 4::6 cibdoi nlò`hloi htlxlx) }fete fo~e dee` o ùadet bn me~eibzae`}x l` o`m bu}xlme}fe teclb` }fo} fo~e seogeèm }fe abae`}ua nbt ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo. Bè xuhfme~eibzae`} fox dee` o ieometxflz ~ohuua; èl}fet }fe ZTH `bt Kozo` lx sliil`c bt ztezotem }bieom }fe l`}ecto}lb`lx} ab~eae`} l` Eox} Oxlo.

Ox }fe xehb`m iotcex} o`m abx} om~o`hem ehb`ba| l` }fe teclb`) Kozo` fom dee` o} }fe nbtentb`}bn abdlil{l`c teclbòi ennbt}x }b cotèt zbil}lhoi o`m zudilh xuzzbt} nbt teclbòi ehb`balhl`}ecto}lb`. L} sox Kozo` }fo} om~bho}em }fe hteo}lb` bn o` Oxlo` Abè}ot| Nu`m mutl`c }fe ?<<3‘ ?<<6 Oxlo` nlò`hloi htlxlx. Kozo` oixb }bbg }fe ieom l` iou`hfl`c }fe ODAL o`m hoazolcèm nbt}fe l`}tbmuh}lb` bn o teclbòi hutte`h| u`l}) b` }fe ilèx bn }fe Ehu) ox o aeo`x bn x}odlil{l`cdlio}etoi evhfo`ce to}ex bn }fe aeadetx bn OXEO@'8. Fbse~et) l` tehe`} |eotx menio}lb`) ox}tb`c |e`) xibs ctbs}f) o`m zbil}lhoi l`x}odlil}| fo~e zte~e`}em Kozo` ntba oxxual`c o cteo}etteclbòi tbie l` Eox} Oxlo.

6]fe LAN oixb xeex }fe èem nbt texbt}l`c }b hozl}oi hb`}tbix }b al}lco}e }fe lazoh} bn iotce xzehuio}l~e hozl}oi l`nibsx

o`m bu}nibsx. Xee Bx}t| e} oi. &4:??,




?<

]fe ZTH fox oixb xfbs` o iohg bn l`}etex} l` teclbòi ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb`) du} nbt o mlnnete`}teoxb`. Uìlge Kozo`) l} fox dee` l`hteoxl`ci| ztebhhuzlem sl}f l}x cibdoi to}fet }fo` teclbòitbie. @b} bì| nbt ehb`balh du} oixb nbt x}to}eclh teoxb`x) }fe ZTH“x zbilh|aogetx fo~e}toml}lbòii| ziohem cteo}et eazfoxlx b` l`}ecto}lb` sl}f l}x èlcfdbtl`c ehb`balex) xuhf oxOXEO@ aeadet x}o}ex) }fo` sl}f el}fet Kozo` bt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo. ]fe ZTH“xox|`hftb`bux duxlèxx h|hie aeo`x l} lx `b} ilgei| }b teoz iotce deènl}x ntba zot}lhlzo}l`c l` Eox}Oxlo“x teclbòi l`}ecto}lb` &Zotg o`m Xb`c 4:??,.

Nut}fetabte) ox Elhfe`ctee` &4::<, zbl`}x bu}) }fe ZTH alcf} `b} fo~e }b zot}lhlzo}e l`) bt ieomztbab}lb` bn) o`| teclbòi otto`ceae`}x }b o}}ol` cteo}et zbil}lhoi o`m ehb`balh l`niue`he l` }feteclb`. L`x}eom bn }t|l`c }b eauio}e }fe Eutbzeo` ozztbohf }b teclbòi l`}ecto}lb`) oii l} fox }b mblx sol}. ]fe ib`cet l} sol}x) }fe x}tb`cet slii de l}x ehb`balh zbxl}lb` l` }fe teclb`. E~e`}uoii| }feiotce evzbt} aotge} }fe ZTH ztexe`}x }b b}fet aeadet x}o}ex bn OXEO@'8 slii de o` l`he`}l~ex}tb`c e`bucf }b dtl`c }fea l`}b l}x nbim.

Nbt b}fet aeadetx bn OXEO@'8 ox auhf ox nbt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo) }fe noliute bn }fe HALA oxo teclbòi ilqulml}| xuzzbt} x|x}ea mutl`c }fe 4::6 cibdoi nlò`hloi htlxlx fox `b} l`xzltem auhfhb`nlme`he l` }fe nu}ute tbie bn OXEO@'8. L} ao| de oixb }tue }fo} }fe eutb{bè htlxlx fox aomeOXEO@'8 aeadetx teoil{e }fo} }fe hbx}x bn teclbòi abè}ot| hbbzeto}lb` sbuim de auhfflcfet }fo` lx bn}e` hiolaem) o`m abte xb l` o teclb` hfotoh}etl{em d| o flcfet mectee bn

fe}etbceèl}| l` ehb`ba| ztbnliex }fo` l` Eutbze. Abte }fo` o`|}fl`c) fbse~et) }fe eaetce`hebn o ntee }tome oteo l` o teclb` sfete }fe ZTH slii de }fe fud o`m }fe |uo` slii de }fe mbalò`}}tome l`~blhl`c o`m xe}}ieae`} hutte`h|) slii me}etalè }fe nu}ute bn OXEO@'8.

=.4 Eaetce`he bn o` ’OXEO@'@es8‑ |uo` Oteo<

L` tehe`} |eotx) }fe ZTH fox }oge` hb`hte}e x}ezx }b l`}etò}lbòil{e }fe |uo`. O} }flx eoti| x}ocebn l`}etò}lbòil{o}lb`) }fe |uo` lx evzeh}em }b de uxem l` l`~blhl`c o`m xe}}il`c }tome abx}i| sl}fl}x èlcfdbtl`c ehb`balex l` Xbu}feox} Oxlo. Meeze`l`c bn }tome l`}ecto}lb` he`}etl`c b` }feZTH l` }fe teclb` slii l`hteoxe }fe uxoce bn }fe |uo` ox o` l`~blhl`c hutte`h|. ]flx slmet uxoceslii l` }ut` evzo`m l`}to!teclbòi }tome. L` xb mbl`c) }tome l`}ecto}lb` o`m |uo` l`}etò}lbòil{o}lb`slii tel`nbthe eohf b}fet) }b io| }fe ctbu`msbtg nbt }fe hteo}lb` bn o |uo` oteo oab`c }fe }flt}eeèhb`balex l` Eox} Oxlo; OXEO@?:7 }fe ZTH7 ]olzel)Hflò7 o`m Fb`c Gb`c) Hflò.

]fe |uo`“x l`}etò}lbòil{o}lb` slii ilgei| nbiibs o }ftee!x}oce ztbhexx l` sflhf l} slii de nltx} uxemox o hutte`h| nbt ztlhl`c o`m xe}}ieae`} bn dlio}etoi }tome sl}f }fe ZTH) nbt me`balò}lb` bncibdoii| }tomem nlò`hloi l`x}tuae`}x o} }fe xehb`m x}oce) o`m nbt fbiml`c texet~ex o} }fe nlòix}oce. B~et }lae) sl}f }fe ZTH“x tozlmi| ctbsl`c ehb`ba| o`m l}x iotce xfote l` cibdoi }tome) }fe|uo` ao| ui}lao}ei| ohqulte o` l`}etò}lbòi x}o}ux hbaae`xuto}e sl}f l}x ehb`balh selcf} o`m}tome xhoie.

]b ao`| zu`ml}x) fbse~et) }fe ztbxzeh}x nbt }fe eie~o}lb` bn }fe |uo` }b o nuii|!niemceml`}etò}lbòi hutte`h| ote fotmi| ztbalxl`c. ]fe| otcue }fo} uìexx }fe ZTH lx ztezotem }b bze`l}x nlò`hloi aotge}x o`m }b aoge }fe |uo` nuii| hb`~et}ldie) }fe hutte`h| ao| è~et bd}ol` ocibdoi x}o}ux. ]fe| oixb zbl`} bu} }fo} ox o ctbuz) }fe }flt}ee` ehb`balex fotmi| quoiln| nbt

aeadetxflz l` o abè}ot| u`lb`. L` xbae bn }fexe hbu`}tlex) o`}l!Hflèxe neeil`cx tu` meez o`mctbsl`c oxxet}l~eèxx l` }ettl}btloi mlxzu}ex sl}f }fe ZTH ao| fo~e occto~o}em }fexe xe`}lae`}x.Fbse~et) o xetlex bn tehe`} me~eibzae`}x l` }tome l` }fe teclb` ozzeot }b fo~e laztb~em }fexeom~etxe hb`ml}lb`x o`m hfo`cem }fe nu}ute ztbxzeh}x bn }fe |uo` nbt }fe de}}et.

<]flx xeh}lb` mtosx b` Zotg o`m Xb`c &4:??,




4:

L` ehb`balh teio}lb`x) OXEO@ o`m ]olzel)Hflò) ote l`hteoxl`ci| l`}ecto}em sl}f }fe ZTH }ftbucf}fe nbtao}lb` bn Ntee ]tome Octeeae`}x &N]Ox,; }fe OXEO@!ZTH N]O o`m Ztenete`}loi ]tomeOcteeae`} de}see` }fe ZTH o`m ]olzel)Hflò. L` omml}lb`) }fe ZTH fox dee` zio|l`c o ieoml`ctbie l` }fe me~eibzae`} bn }fe Cteo}et Aegb`c Xud!teclb`. ]fe l`nbtaoi è}sbtg bn e}f`lhHflèxe }tometx }ftbucfbu} Eox} Oxlo fox xet~em ox o hb`mul} nbt dbbal`c }tome de}see` }feZTH o`m OXEO@.

E~e` denbte }fe OXEO@!ZTH N]O e`}etem l`}b nbthe o} }fe decl``l`c bn 4:?:) }b}oi }tomede}see` OXEO@ o`m }fe ZTH sox ctbsl`c o} o mbudie!mlcl} to}e. Xl`he }fe N]O }bbg enneh}) }fetefox dee` o zfe`baeòi l`hteoxe l` }tome de}see` }fe ZTH o`m OXEO@. Mutl`c }fe nltx} xlvab`}fx bn 4:?:) OXEO@“x }b}oi evzbt}x }b }fe ZTH tbxe abte }fo` 6>% o`m l}x lazbt}x d| >8%|eot!b`!|eot. Ox o texui}) }fe xfote bn }fe ZTH l` OXEO@“x }b}oi evzbt}x kuazem }b ?8% l` }fenltx} foin bn 4:?: ntba iexx }fo` ?:% o |eot eotilet. Ln ]olzel)Hflò sete }b kbl` }fe OXEO@!ZTHN]O) o iotcet ntee }tome oteo sl}f }fe ZTH ox }fe fud sbuim hbae l`}b evlx}e`he sl}f fom ohbadlèm CMZ bn UX->.6 }tliilb` l` 4::<. ]b}oi evzbt}x bn }fe ’OXEO@'@es8‑ ehb`balex&OXEO@7 }fe ZTH7 Fb`c Gb`c) Hflò7 o`m ]olzel)Hflò, oabu`}em }b UX-4.> }tliilb` l` }fe xoae|eot. Ox o sfbie }fe ctbuz lazbt}em o ib} iexx) tu``l`c o hutte`} ohhbu`} xutziux bn UX-=>8dliilb`) sflhf sox equl~oie`} }b <?% bn }fe UX }tome menlhl}) l` 4::<. ]fe OXEO@'@es8 N]O sliioixb de xuzzbt}em d| }fe }sb teclbòi nlò`hloi he`}etx”Fb`c Gb`c) Hflò7 o`m Xl`cozbte”o`m

o` eaetcl`c he`}et l` Xfo`cfol.?:

L` }fe decl``l`c) l} lx evzeh}em }fo} }fe Hflèxe zio`ètx sbuim ola o} ztbab}l`c }fe |uo` ox oteclbòi to}fet }fo` o cibdoi hutte`h|. ]flx x}to}ec| fox xe~etoi ozzeoil`c neo}utex nbt Hflèxezbilh|aogetx) o`m alcf} de }fe abx} teoilx}lh o`m evzemle`} ozztbohf }b }oge. Bè xuhf neo}utelx }fo} }fe nbtao}lb` bn o |uo` oteo lx ilgei| }b de o to}fet ò}utoi e~biu}lbòt| bu}hbae bn }tomel`}ecto}lb` sl}f èlcfdbtl`c hbu`}tlex. O`b}fet o}}toh}l~e neo}ute bn }fe x}to}ec| lx }fo}) oi}fbucf lèx}odilxfl`c o` |uo` oteo }fe ZTH slii èem }b metecuio}e o`m bze` l}x nlò`hloi aotge}x) }feev}e`} bn nlò`hloi ildetoil{o}lb` o`m bze`l`c tequltem nbt }fe teclbòil{o}lb` slii `b} de oxev}e`xl~e ox sl}f nbiibsl`c o cibdoi ozztbohf. Oii }fe ZTH alcf} fo~e }b mb lx }b xuzzi| oòmequo}e oabu`} bn bnnxfbte |uo` ilqulml}| o`m hteo}e nlò`hloi l`x}tuae`}x l` |uo` }fo} l`~ex}btxntba b}fet aeadetx bn }fe |uo` oteo ho` l`~ex} l`.

=.8 Ztbxzeh}x nbt Teclbòi L`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo

Kozo` fox oixb ex}odilxfem o hbaztefe`xl~e ehb`balh zot}ètxflz octeeae`} sl}f OXEO@. L}fox dee` xe`ml`c o` l`hteoxl`ci| iotce xfote bn l}x evzbt}x }b }fe ZTH. \e} l} lx l`hb`hel~odie }fo}l} sbuim e~et exhfes ntee nibo}l`c }b zot}lhlzo}e l` o`| |uo` oteo) bt nbt }fo} ao}}et }b kbl` o`|teclbòi abè}ot| hbbzeto}lb` iem d| }fe ZTH sl}f }fe |uo` ox o` o`hfbt hutte`h|. L` Kozo`“x~les) }fe eaetce`he bn o |uo` oteo lx ilgei| }b de o ml~lxl~e me~eibzae`} }fo} hbuim metoli”ln `b}dtl`c }b o` e`m”teclbòi ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb` iem d| OXEO@'8. Ox `b}em eotilet) l} lx oixbl`hb`hel~odie }fo} }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo sbuim kbl` o |uo` oteo) oi}fbucf }fe ZTH fox dehbae oabte lazbt}o`} }tome zot}èt }b }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo }fo` l} lx }b b}fet Oxlo` hbu`}tlex. ]flxaeo`x }fo} ln }fe ZTH xuhheemx l` dtbome`l`c o`m meeze`l`c l}x ehb`balh o`m zbil}lhoi teio}lb`xsl}f OXEO@ }b hteo}e o |uo` oteo) sflie l} nolix }b nl`m o ès abmoil}| bn abè}ot| hbbzeto}lb`

?: ]fe ehb`balh l`}etex}x }fo} dl`m }fe ehb`balex }bce}fet fo~e culmem }fea }b ieo~e zbil}lhx bu} bn ehb`balhx. L}

sbuim `b} de ox u`teoilx}lh ox l} ao| xbu`m }b evzeh} }fo} d| tel`nbthl`c ntee }tome l` }fe teclb`) l`}etò}lbòil{o}lb` bn}fe |uo` sbuim uìeoxf x}tb`c aotge} nbthex }fo} sbuim ex}odilxf l}x zbxl}lb` ox o htemldie teclbòi hutte`h|. Zotg o`mXb`c &4:??, fo~e otcuem }fo} }fe xoae aotge} nbthex sbuim zo~e }fe so| nbt }fe nbtao}lb` bn o hutte`h| oteo oab`c}fe }flt}ee` ehb`balex l` Eox} Oxlo.




4?

sl}f Kozo` o`m }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo) }fete lx }fe mo`cet }fo} OXEO@'8 slii ibxe l}x to}lbòie nbtx}eetl`c teclbòi ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo.

Cibdoi nlò`hloi aotge} zot}lhlzo`}x fo~e dee`) o`m slii hb`}lùe }b de) mlxalxxl~e bn }felazbt}o`he bn }fe HALA ox o teclbòi xuzzilet bn ilqulml}|) xlazi| dehouxe l} lx }bb xaoii }bzte~e`} hb`}oclb` bn o teclbòi htlxlx l` Eox} Oxlo. ]fe Ctbuz bn ]se`}| &C4:, fox dee` evzibtl`c}fe zbxxldlil}| bn hteo}l`c o cibdoi ilqulml}| xone}| è}) sflhf x}te`c}fe`x }fe tbie bn db}f }fe LAN

o`m teclbòi otto`ceae`}x xuhf ox }fe HALA ox l}x hbazbè`}x. Sbuim }flx ès l`l}lo}l~e co}fetabae`}ua nbt teclbòi ehb`balh hbbzeto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo2 ]fe o`xset }b }flx quex}lb` sliimeze`m b` }fe x}tuh}ute bn o ès xone}| è} octeem uzb` oab`c }fe C4: aeadetx. Dottl`c o`|ès C4: l`l}lo}l~e) }fe HALA ox o teclbòi ilqulml}| xuzzbt} x|x}ea ao| de teieco}em }b ox|adbilh otto`ceae`}.

L` ~les bn mlnnete`hex l` }felt l`}etex}x) }fete slii `b} de o`| teèsem ennbt}x }b texuxhl}o}e }feevlx}l`c teclbòi l`l}lo}l~ex oab`c }fe aeadetx bn OXEO@'8. Uìlge l` ?<<3) abx} bn }fehbu`}tlex fo~e seo}fetem }fe 4::6 cibdoi ehb`balh htlxlx de}}et }fo` evzeh}em o`m ox o texui})mb `b} xeea }b xee }fe èem }b hteo}e o iotce teclbòi l`x}l}u}lb` `bs }fo} }fe LAN foxex}odilxfem ès ie`ml`c nohlil}lex xuhf ox }fe Nievldie Hteml} Ilè o`m Ztehou}lbòt| Hteml} Ilè.

]fe iohg bn l`}etex} l` teclbòi ehb`balh l`}ecto}lb` iem d| OXEO@'8 mbex `b} èhexxotli| aeo`

}fe mealxe bn }fe l`}ecto}lb`lx} ab~eae`} l` Eox} Oxlo. Mexzl}e }fe xe}dohg l` }fe OXEO@'8ztbhexx) }fe zbilh|aogetx ntba }fe ZTH) Kozo`) }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo) o`m xbae bn }feaeadetx bn OXEO@ oixb teoil{e }fe lazbt}o`he bn x}odlil{l`c }felt dlio}etoi evhfo`ce to}ex) }feabte xb sl}f }fe l`hteoxe l` l`}to teclbòi }tome l` Eox} Oxlo. ]fete fox dee` o ib`c ztb}toh}emmlxhuxxlb` b` hteo}l`c o }ftee!hbu`}t| N]O l`~bi~l`c }fe ZTH) Kozo`) o`m }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo.]fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo lx hbaal}}em }b ècb}lo}l`c o N]O sl}f }fe ZTH o`m lx ilgei| }b texuae l}xècb}lo}lb`x sl}f Kozo` nbt o xlaliot octeeae`}.

B`he }fe ZTH) Kozo`) o`m }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo aoge feomso| l` nbtal`c o }ftee!hbu`}t| N]O)}fete sbuim de cteo}et ztl~o}e xeh}bt ztexxute nbt }fe x}odlil}| bn l`}to!teclbòi evhfo`ce to}ex.E~e` denbte }fe hteo}lb` bn o }ftee!hbu`}t| N]O) }fe ZTH) Kozo`) o`m }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteohbuim hb`xlmet o iexx nbtaoi abmoil}| bn evhfo`ce to}e zbilh| hbbzeto}lb`

??

5. HB@HIUML@C TEAOTGX

.

Eox} Oxlo lx o} }fe htbxxtbomx l` l}x quex} nbt teclbòi nlò`hloi hbbzeto}lb` o`m l`}ecto}lb`. ]feaeadetx bn OXEO@'8 fo~e ibx} auhf bn }felt eotilet e`}fuxloxa nbt ab~l`c nbtsotm sl}f }feHALA o`m ODAL‘}fe }sb zliiotx bn }fe OXEO@'8!iem l`}ecto}lb`lx} ab~eae`}‘l` }fe soge bn }fe4::6 cibdoi ehb`balh htlxlx. Evhez} nbt }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo) oii b}fet aeadetx bn OXEO@'8fo~e seo}fetem }fe 4::6 cibdoi ehb`balh htlxlx auhf de}}et }fo` evzeh}em) o`m ao| `b} xee }feèem }b evzo`m }fe HALA.

]flx iohg bn l`}etex} fox dee` hbazbu`mem d| o ieometxflz ztbdiea; }fe ZTH o`m Kozo` fo~e`b} dee` odie }b sbtg bu} }felt mlnnete`hex b` ao`| teclbòi lxxuex) nolil`c }b ztb~lme ieometxflz~l}oi }b Eox} Oxlo“x l`}ecto}lb`lx} ab~eae`}. ]fe eutb{bè htlxlx ao| fo~e aome ao`| Eox}Oxlo“x ieometx teoil{e }fe ~ox} xhoie bn }fe }oxgx i|l`c ofeom l` }felt hbaal}ae`} }b teclbòiehb`balh l`}ecto}lb`.

??Bè xuccex}lb` lx }b ex}odilxf o xhfeae bn kbl`} l`}et~e`}lb` oab`c }fe ZTH) Kozo`) o`m }fe Tezudilh bn Gbteo l`

}fe nbtelc` evhfo`ce aotge}x bn }fe }ftee hbu`}tlex) uxl`c }felt bs` texet~ex sfe` bè bn }fe }ftee hutte`hlex mlxzio|xo` evhexxl~e ozztehlo}lb` bt meztehlo}lb`. ]flx xhfeae mbex `b} aeo` }fe hteo}lb` bn o` evhfo`ce to}e aehfo`lxa)du} o` om!fbh otto`ceae`} }b de oh}l~o}em sfe` bè bn }fe aotge}x bn }fe }ftee hbu`}tlex hbaex u`met mex}odlil{l`cxzehuio}lb`. Nbt }flx zutzbxe) }fe HALA hbuim de tex}tuh}utem nbt xfbt}!}eta ie`ml`c `b} bì| nbt htlxlx aoòceae`})du} oixb nbt evhfo`ce to}e x}odlil{o}lb`7 oi}etò}l~ei|) o ès x}odlil{o}lb` nu`m hbuim de hteo}em.




48

TENETE@HEX

Dolc) ]. 4::?. Hfotoh}etl{l`c Evhfo`ce To}e Teclaex; Zbx}!Htlxlx Eox} Oxlo. LAN Sbtgl`c Zozet@b. :?"?54. Soxfl`c}b` MH; LAN.

Do|bual) ].) o`m D. Elhfe`ctee`. ?<<6. Evhfo`ce To}e ^bio}lil}| o`m L`}et~e`}lb`; Lazilho}lb`x bn

}fe ]febt| bn Bz}laua Hutte`h| Oteox. Kbutòi bn L`}etò}lbòi Ehb`balhx =5&4,; ?<?‘ 4:<.

Dio`hfotm) B. 4::<. Eaetcl`c Aotge} Hbu`}tlex l` }fe Htlxlx. O Ge| @b}e Ommtexx Meil~etem o}}fe Sbtim Do`g O`ùoi Do`g Hb`nete`hex b` Me~eibzae`} Ehb`balhx) Xebui) 44‘4=Kuè.

Mbmce) M. 4::5. Abè}ot| Zbilh| o`m }fe Evhfo`ce To}e. Teaotgx d| }fe Cb~et`bt bn }fe Do`gbn Hoòmo }b }fe Hoòmo Hflò Duxlèxx Hbu`hli) Delkl`c) 4 Kuè.

Muot}e) A.) o`m O. H. X}bhgao`. 4::5. To}lbòi Xzehuio}lb` o`m Evhfo`ce To}ex. Kbutòi bn Abè}ot| Ehb`balhx 54&?,; 8‘4<.

Elhfe`ctee`) D. 4::<. ]fe Mbiiot Mlieaao. Nbtelc` Onnoltx & 66, Xez}eadet"Bh}bdet; 58‘>6.

Fodetaelet) G.) O. Gbge`|è) T. ê|tuè) o`m F. O`metxb`. 4::<. Te~lxem X|x}ea nbt }feHioxxlnlho}lb` bn Evhfo`ce To}e Otto`ceae`}x. LAN Sbtgl`c Zozet) SZ":<"4??)Soxfl`c}b` MH; LAN.

L`}etò}lbòi Abè}ot| Nu`m. 4:?:.

Keb`c) S. 4::<. Hfo`cex l` }fe Hbaabml}| X}tuh}ute bn ]tome de}see` Gbteo o`m }fe ZTH l`4::6 o`m ]felt Lazilho}lb`x. L`x}l}u}e nbt L`}etò}lbòi ]tome) Gbteo L`}etò}lbòi ]tomeOxxbhlo}lb` &l` Gbteo`,.

O`ùoi Tezbt} b` Evhfo`ce Otto`ceae`}x o`m Evhfo`ce

Tex}tlh}lb`x) 4:?: . Soxfl`c}b` MH; LAN

Io`xl`c) G. 4::>. Ibhg!l` bn Ev}tozbio}l~e Evzeh}o}lb`x l` o` Oxxe} Ztlhl`cAbmei. Aohtbehb`balh M|òalhx

Autto|) K. 4:::. Sf| Hoòmo @eemx o Nievldie Evhfo`ce To}e. @bt}f Oaetlho` Kbutòi bn Ehb`balhx o`m Nlò`he ??&?,; =?‘>:.

?:&8,; 8?3‘8=6.

Bx}t|) K.) e} oi. 4:??. Aoòcl`c Hozl}oi L`nibsx; Sfo} ]bbix }b Uxe2 LAN X}onn Mlxhuxxlb` @b}e XM@"??":> ) Soxfl`c}b` MH; LAN.

Zotg) F.) o`m \. Gla. 4::6. Hb!ab~eae`} bn }fe Gbteo` Sb` o`m }fe Kozoèxe |e` o`m l}xEnneh} b` Gbteo` Evzbt}x. GLN Nlò`hloi Texeothf Tezbt} 4::6‘:5. Gbteo L`x}l}u}e bnNlò`he &l` Gbteo`,.

Zotg) \. 4:?:. Cibdoi Ehb`balh Tehexxlb` o`m Eox} Oxlo; Fbs Fox Gbteo Aoòcem }fe Htlxlxo`m Sfo} Fox L} Ieotèm2 Alaeb. Gbteo U`l~etxl}|.

Zotg) \.) o`m H. Xb`c. 4:??. TAD L`}etò}lbòil{o}lb`; Ztbxzeh}x o`m Lazilho}lb`x nbt Ehb`balhL`}ecto}lb` l` Eox} Oxlo. Nbt}fhbal`c l` Oxlo` Ehb`balh Zozetx .

O}fugbtoio) Z.) o`m K. Ae`b`. 4:?:. Cibdoi Ztbmuh}lb` Xfotl`c) ]tome Zo}}et`x) o`mMe}etalò`}x bn ]tome Nibsx l` Eox} Oxlo. Sbtgl`c Zozetx b` Teclbòi Ehb`balhL`}ecto}lb`) @b =?. Ao`lio; OMD

]flexxe`) C. 4:::. ]fe Hb`muh} bn Abè}ot| Zbilh| Sfe` \bu Il~e @ev} Mbbt }b o Iotce@elcfdbt. Teaotgx d| }fe Cb~et`bt bn }fe Do`g bn Hoòmo }b }fe Hoòmlo` Xbhle}| bn@es \btg) @es \btg. < Aothf.

http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pat44.htm

http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pme8.htm

http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/risadbrei/




http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pme8.htm

http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pat44.htm




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Prospects for Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

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