Frank Jamerson Ph.D.

General Motors Detroit Executive Retiree Club

Bloomfield Hills CC July 11, 2018

Prospects for Electric Vehicles:

Mandate or Market

Outline

• History

• EV Technology

• EVs / EBs Worldwide

• EV / EB Sales

• EV Mandate or Market

• Conclusion

Early History “The innovators today stand on the shoulders of

those who went before and who paved the way.”

1800 Allesandro Volta, Italy, battery (Zn-Cu)

1821 Michael Faraday, England, electric motor

1884 Thomas Edison, 1st Electric Power Plant, coal

fired, Manhattan NYC, lit 400 lamps, 1st electric

grid

1910 Detroit Electric EV USA

1911 Charles Kettering DELCO, self starter

replaced hand crank, first on 1912 Cadillac,

gas car sales surge, EVs fade

1947 Bell Labs-Transistor Nobel Laureate (1956)

John Bardeen, William Shockley, Walter Brattain-

Led to low cost powerful computers

1969 GM Progress of Power Show-EVs / batteries

1982 GMRL John Croat NdFeB rare earth magnet,

Magnequench™ motors smaller/lighter

1987 GM Sunraycer wins 1st 2,000m solar car race

1996-99 GM EV1 1st production EV

2010 GM Chevy Volt 1st Plug-in hybrid

2016 GM Chevy Bolt 1st 238m range EV $37,000

1997 Toyota Prius 1st production hybrid

2012 Tesla First $100,000+ EV

Recent History

Professor John Bardeen

At GMRL Dec 1984

Nobel Laureate twice

1956 Transistor Bell Labs

1972 BCS

Superconductivity Theory

Univ. of Illinois

His student, Nick Holonyak,

invented the LED in 1962

Lowell Thomas

National

newscaster Visits

GMRL 1960

Nuclear

thermionic energy

conversion project

FJ/Thomas/?

1895 Thomas Parker England

1914 Thomas Edison

Early Electrics

1969 General Motors Progress of Power Show

GM Tech Center Warren, Michigan

Demonstrated technology to

lower exhaust emissions:

electric/hybrid cars

Steam engine powered car

Stirling engine /electric hybrid car

gas turbine bus / fuel cell van

R&D batteries Nickel-zinc/Zinc-air/

Lithium-Chlorine batteries

CATALYTIC CONVERTER

+Gas engine selected

512 Urban Car Hybrid, Electric,

Gasoline

Electrovair (Corvair) EV

silver-zinc battery 40-80 mile range

1987 First World Solar Challenge-GM Sunraycer won 42mph 45hrs 5 days

Team led by Hughes Aircraft with AeroVironment & GM, Holden (2,000 miles Darwin to Adelaide)

World Solar Challenge runs every

2 years Univ. of Michigan won 6 times

UM also won American Solar

Challenge (alternate years) 9 times

Howard Wilson, Hughes Aircraft VP/leader of Sunraycer team,

convinced GM to build the Impact EV prototype with aero design.

Named EV1 in production 1996-1999 - 800 leased in CA/AZ only by Saturn

EV1 coupe (1,100 built) 137 hp

speed record 186mph TX Speedway

18 kWh lead acid 80-100 miles

26 kWh NiMH 100-140 miles

regenerative braking/novel heat pump

AC/inductive charger

EV1 at Crooked Lake MI EV1 at Ridgewood Dr. Pelican Bay

Batteries

1990s Lead-Acid/2000s Nickel Metal Hydride/Now Lithium

Watt-hour/kilogram L-A 40 / NMH 90 /Li Ion 150

EBs 500 Watt-hour range 20 to 50 miles/charge

EVs 60 to 75 kilowatt-hour range 238(B)-310(T3) miles/charge

Chevy 2018 Bolt

LG Chem Li prismatic (flat) battery in 90 groups

3 cells/group 3.74V/cell 337 Volts 960 lb Courtney Vance, actor, owns one,

WSJ 14Apr 2018 in My Tech Essentials

“No more gas. No more maintenance. It’s quick and

roomy inside. My kids love it. It’s perfection.”

Tesla S Battery 7,100 cells

Panasonic 18mm (0.7 inch) OD-650mm (2.5 inch)long

Tesla Interstate fast charge stations

150m apart 45min for 150m range

16,000 USA charge stations

With 43,000 plugs as of 2017

China 190,000 plans 800,000

Motor / Controller

Electric Motor drives wheels /

Power Electronics controls power & battery charge

Bolt: Rare Earth (MQ) Permanent

Magnet motor

200hp 266ft.lb. torque

2018 Chevy Volt

Plug-In Hybrid

Electric motor drive 100%

Gas Engine charges battery

53m EV range 420 mile total

Possible 1,000mpg

Li Ion 18.4kWh

Worldwide EVs

Tesla Model 3

200m/50kWh

310m/75kWh

BMW i3 114m

Ford Focus 115m

Nissan Leaf 150m

2019 Jaguar

i-Pace crossover

90kWh Li 298m

197hp motor fr & rear

2019 China EV/PIH GM Buick Velite

2019 China

Buick Enspire

EV SUV

370m range

Worldwide EBs

Aima Scooter Style EB China Klever Taiwan made EU sold

German Postal Service Cargo e-bike

Copenhagen wheel MIT design

GoCycle folder UK

Pedego US 41 N Naples-Comfort Cruiser William Shatner owns Trek MTB USA Bosch mid drive

STORY

Pedelec Adventures

Susanne Brüsch founder

Solar e-bike tours Sahara in Morocco /

Iceland / Mongolia / Africa / USA 10,000 miles

Mahindra GenZe e-scooter

Ann Arbor MI made

Scoot e-scooter rental

San Francisco CA

Uber buys Jump e-bike

company 10Apr2018

Jump lock / access pad

Worldwide Electric Motorcycles Worldwide Electric Motorcycles

EBWR EB

Sales Estimates

Market Drivers

China-step up from pedal

bikes/ 250M on road/50% total sales

Europe-more profit from EBs

USA-1st China imports bad/

step down from cars tough/

sales momentum building now

Worldwide EV sales

USA EV Sales

2011 17,00

2012 53,000

2013 97,000

2014 122,000

2015 116,000

2016 159,000

2017 200,000

WW EV Sales

2014 321,000

2015 550,000

2016 777,000

2017 1,227,000

Total thru 2017

Bolt 24,000

Volt 134,000

Tesla S 120,000

China 2018 Q1 up 150%

EV 102,000 PIH 40,000

Government subsidy ends 2020

Auto Maker Huge EV Plans- $70 billion Bet

General Motors 20 new EVs by 2023

Nissan 8 new EVs sell 1M in 2022

Daimler 10 new EVs 25% production 2025

Toyota 10 new EVs 2020 1M EV / 5M hybrid 2030

VW 16 EV plants 2022 / 3M/yr 2025 50EV 30PIH

USA Government Mandates are supposed to

reduce smog and CO2 EVs claim to be zero emission to eliminate HC/NOx/CO2 from cars

HC, NOx and sunlight causes LA smog: catalytic converters greatly

reduced LA smog

CO2 promotes plant growth so is beneficial but theoretical climate

modelers claim CO2 increases global temperature

Global CO2 now 400 ppm (4 CO2 molecules per 10,000 air

molecules

with 80% N2 20% O2) -- CO2 was 280 ppm 100 years ago

Known--CO2 varied from 180 to 7,000 ppm past 500 million years

Dr. Jim Wallace (ex GM) statistically analyzed long term

temperature data and concludes global temperature is not

influenced by CO2

US Historical Climatology

Network Average USA

Temperature

NOAA cools past

measured data

to show warming trend

This is cheating!

Sun radiance

varies with

11 & 2,300

year cycles

SUN hydrogen fusion core makes

helium at 27,000,000°F surface

10,000°F

Mass 330,000xearth and 99.9%

total mass of the Solar System

100Watts/sq ft on earth surface

15W/sf 15% eff. Solar cells

6-10 hours/day

WSJ Opinion17Apr 2018

Peter Wood President

David Randall Director of Research

National Association of Scholars

How Bad is the Government’s Science

“Half the results published in peer-reviewed

scientific journals are wrong.”

“The whole discipline of

climate science is a

farrago (confused mixture) of

unreliable statistics, arbitrary

research techniques and

politicized groupthink.”

Edmunds hybrid/EV/

plug-in 2018 USA sales

Estimate

Total 750,000

EVs 290,000

Projected Battery price drop

could boost EV sales

Caveat-Cobalt &

Lithium price rising may

halt lower price trend

2030 at 100kWh/EV=

7M WW EV sales

Most in China

7% of 100M car market

CA Air Resources Board

ZEV Mandate

Many complicated categories

ZEV Zero Emission Vehicles

TZEV Transitional Partial Em Veh

ATZEV Adv Tech Part Em Veh

SULEV Super Ultra Low Em Veh

Funny thing—65% of USA

electric plants use natural gas/coal/

oil so EVs are NOT Zero Emissions

For TRUE ZEV need 100% nuclear power

runs 24/7 unlike intermittent solar power

ZEV Credit based on EV Range

4 credits max for 350m range

$5,000/vehicle fine if miss ZEV quota

Tesla sold $700 Million in credits at $1,600/credit

France 58 reactors / 76% total electric power /

reprocess uranium—run well for 60+ years

USA MANDATES

Now 1. ZEV Mandate CA, CT, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT

have Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate forces makers

to sell EVs. Makers must buy credits if miss targets.

2. Federal MPG Mandate Makers build small cars to meet

fuel economy rules, today 27mpg. Obama standard

54.5mpg by 2025 is under review, likely will be revised.

Future

1. ZEV mandate disappears, few EVs will be sold without

subsidies. If ZEV mandate continues, EV market will still be

small.

2. Modest new mpg standard, say 38 mpg, will not effect

EV sales, (EVs are rated at 100+mpg equivalent).

USA MANDATES

Now 1. ZEV Mandate CA, CT, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY,

OR, RI, VT have Zero Emission Vehicle mandate forces

makers to sell EVs. Makers must buy credits if miss

targets.

2. Federal MPG Mandate Makers build small cars to

meet fuel economy rules, today 27mpg. Obama

standard 54.5mpg by 2025 is under review, likely will be

revised.

FUTURE 1. ZEV Mandate disappears, few EVs will be

sold without subsidies. If continues, EV market still

small.

2. Modest new Fed mpg standard, say 38 mpg, will not

effect EV sales, (EVs are rated at 100+mpg equivalent).

USA MARKET FACT

1. People buy vehicles they want, a free market choice.

2.Gasoline automobile replaced horse & buggy and early EVs.

3. Gasoline SUVs and Crossovers are 65% of market today.

4. Norway-40% EV sales no 25% VAT tax, free toll road & fast lanes.

But north sea oil money funds Norway EV subsidies. Now

1. Government Subsidies help EV Fed EV tax credit $7,500 max

+ CA $2,500 rebate + 9 other states. Fed $7,500 limited to

200,000 EVs/maker; $3,750 for 1 year; then gone. Future

1. If tax credits/rebates vanish, USA EV sales plateau (or vanish)

at 10% (FJ guess), or 2M of total sales 17M/yr. now.

2. If tax credits extended, USA EV sales plateau 25% (FJ guess), or

5M, total 20M/yr. Cost $50 B/yr. One Trillion $/20years.

3. Achieving 100% EV sales unlikely in this century.

1. Free markets always win.

2. USA EV market will be modest, less than 5

million/yr., for many years.

3. Better battery performance and cost reduction,

with fast charging (10 min. to 50% charge), could

enhance EV sales.

4. Electric Bikes sales will be 100 million/year

worldwide by 2050 for sure.

5. By 2050 fuel cell vehicles will be the ultimate

electric transportation revolution. FCVs will use H2

from electrolysis of water using nuclear electricity

(today H2 from methane makes CO2).

Frank Jamerson

elecbike@mac.com www.ebwr.com

Conclusion

China extensive Rare Earth mines allows

control of RE metal pricing

Blue-FOB Export China price Red-Domestic price

This forces makers to produce RE magnets in China!

China gridlock Beijing-Tibet

Expressway 2010

Tainjin China e-bikes

Factory workers/road traffic

Scooter Style EBs