Prospects for Change in a Changeless Land (Pol Sci 14)

The Prospects forChange in aChangeless

LandDavid TimbermanChapter 11A Changeless Land

“I had taken the oath to be President of a country that had lost everything, everything but honor. But with honor came a renewed faith in national leadership and in

the ability of our race to change things for the better

given the will and courage to do it.”

-Corazon AquinoState of the Nation Address27 July 1987

•What aspects of Philippine politics and government have changed and what have remained the same?

•What are the consequences of the mix of continuity and change for the democracy of the Philippines?

•How stable is the democratic system?•How effective will it be in meeting the challenges of the future?

•What are the prospects and mechanisms for change in the future?

Questions

The AquinoLegacy:

The Restoration of Traditional Politics

Corazon Aquino inherited a divided and traumatized nation.

•The national government was comatose and bankrupt•Foreign debt payments sapped the government’s extremely limited resources•Communist insurgents still had political and military traction.•The loyalty of many politicians, officials, officers and soldiers remained questionable, particularly the AFP who challenged the authority and legitimacy of the civilian government.•Marcos loyalists, supporters of Juan Ponce Enrile, and other threatened or ambitious groups attempted to destabilize or dominate the young government.

The Aquino government had three broad objectives during its first three years:

1.National reconciliation

Reconstructing democratic institutions

Economic recovery and reform

2.3.

•The government, or more specifically President Aquino, succeeded in reconciling and unifying the nation on one, very important level – Aquino was the only leader who had the popularity, stature, and personality to hold the nation together, both politically and emotionally, in the crisis-ridden months following the fall of Marcos.

•Reconciliation was mostly between the warring factions of the traditional elite – that is, between the anti- and pro- Marcos groups.

•She was able to successfully resuscitate democratic institutions. She chose the comfort and security of traditional elite government and politics, and abandoned whatever populist and progressive leanings she might have had. •F. Sionil Jose said that she was more concerned with “the form rather than the substance of democracy.”

•Corazon Aquino presided over a significant economic recovery and freed the economy from the worst abuses of the Marcos era.

•Due to the restoration of power to the traditional economic elite, they would most likely use privatization as a way of increasing their control over the government’s economic development programmes.

Could she have done more?•She could have done more to limit her family’s influence in government and politics.•She could’ve brought to trial some of the soldiers accused of major human right violations in order to underscore her government’s commitment to human right and demonstrate its control over the military.•She could’ve experimented with the creation of a mass-based political party or organization.•She could’ve been more outspoken about agrarian reform.

YES

What haschanged

The Increased Influence of theMilitary

- the increased influence of the military in governance and policy-making

- the emergence of groups of military extremists intent on overthrowing the Aquino government

-The recurring attempts by military extremists to overthrow the Aquino government had a number of consequences for government and politics.

•the coup attempts undermined the civilian government’s efforts to establish its stability and authority•the coup attempts increased the influence of the military “constitutionalists” within the civilian government

•they emboldened the otherwise ineffective rightist opposition to the Aquino government at the same time they bolstered the sagging fortunes of the communists•they damaged the prospects for a sustained economic recovery by reducing the country’s attractiveness to investors, bankers, and tourists•they required the Aquino government to repeatedly focus on problem of maintaining (or restoring) political stability, often to the neglect of the pressing issues, such as agricultural underdevelopment, rapid population growth, and environmental degradation.

Entrenchment of the Revolutionary Left

- the communist presence throughout much of the country is the result of years of organizing by the CPP, the NPA, and other sympathetic groups; the abuses of the Marcos era; the weakness of the government in the countryside; and the fundamental inequality of Philippine society

The Increased Role of the Church-the Church appears to be firmly committed to encouraging moderate socio-economic progress

Increased Roles of the Non-Governmental Organizations and the Private Sector-NGOs encourage local initiatives and strengthen local capabilities; they produce new leaders and build new constituencies and the make government officials and politicians more responsive and accountable

Activeness of the Business Community

-now involved in socio-economic development organizations

Structural Changes inGovernment and Politics since 1986

- reduced power of the president- increased independence of the judiciary- increased participation of the people- return of American-style system of checks and balances

reduces the risk that power will be abused or misused- ran the risk of dispersing power and responsibility

Important Developments in Philippines’ Political Culture

-the Filipino view of democracy has been affected by two historical experiences: the abuses of the Marcos dictatorship and the triumph of the “people power”-the restoration of democracy has increased Philippine nationalism

Change in the Global Environment

-the rapid economic development of the region’s non-communist countries -Filipinos have focused their attention on their nation’s diminishing position in the world, and particularly in the international economy

What hasremainedthe same

•The elitism is still there and these powerful families still control the country. •Dominated by the same families, namely: Aquino, Laurel, Salonga, Sumulong, Manglapus, Pimentel Osmena…etc.

Elitism

•Elections determined by personal ties instead of ideologies •Personal relationships are more important than laws, institutions and procedures •Aquino-Cojuangco clan has replaced the Marcos-Romualdez family as the country’s dominant political clan •E.g. at least SIX of Aquino’s relatives held elected office within the first two years of her administration

Personal Ties

•The lack of fundamental change in socioeconomic condition meant that the culture of poverty is still there.•The government services to the provinces have relatively improved in the past couple of years, but it is not significant enough. •Heavy debt in government will hinder poverty alleviation•Rapid population growth will undermine any gains made by either the economy or the government.•As a result, poverty, inequity and dependence are likely to still characterize the provinces•This is a bad foundation for democracy.

Personal Ties

•Competition for elected house have remained fierce. Once these politicians are in office, staying there still depend son the officeholder’s ability to dispense favors, patronage and money. This therefore, generates a never-ending litany of charges of election fraud, corruption, incompetence and favoritism. The electoral process and the laws being questioned still remain the same.

•Lastly, the media still remains the same. Media still encourages sensationalism as well as superficial an inaccurate reporting, according to page 388 of the book. The owners of the media are again powerful people in politics and business – hence the things they report are again still biased. It’s still very difficult to distinguish between fact, opinions and disinformation.

•The House of Representatives once again is still dominated by conservative landowning interests. •Unitary state was restored with highly centralized, but also resource-starved, bureaucracy. •Government still plays an influential, though reduced role in the economy

Key Government Aspects

•The media still remains the same. •Media still encourages sensationalism as well as superficial an inaccurate reporting.•The owners of the media are again powerful people in politics and business – hence the things they report are again still biased. •It’s still very difficult to distinguish between fact, opinions and disinformation.

Media

•Strength of cultural influences, especially personalize, pakisama, and traditional Catholicism •And conservatism engendered by subsistence agriculture, these cultural influences have caused most Filipinos to be remarkably patient and accepting.

What makes us “Changeless”?

•Large disparity in wealth: elites get most of the advantage, control the government and economy. •Power of elite plus passiveness of of many peasants made it difficult to organize a force of change.


•Martial law: economy development was lost due to martial law; thinking and behavior of many of the leaders today are shaped by their memories of the pre-martial law era•Collapse of economy in early 1980s: reduced expansion of the middle class and entrepreneurs


Appeal of familiarity, conditions had become so bad under Marcos that Filipinos were glad or satisfied with restoring the old political system, the system they were familiar to.


Challengesfor theFuture

•Strengthening National and Local Government•Reducing the Military’s Role in Politics

•Reducing Poverty and Inequity•Ending the Communist Insurgency

•Building a National Consensus•Transforming Philippine Politics


OR

Challenges for the FutureIntroduction

Challenges for the FutureIntroduction

CONTINUITY CHANGE

UNSTABLE AND UNWORKABLE

POLITICAL SYSTEM

OR

STABLE AND EFFECTIVE POLITICAL SYSTEM

CHANGE

CONTINUITY

Challenges for the Future

“The traditional democracy restored by President Corazon Aquino is not inherentlyunstable or unviable”

- Timberman

“Democracy – even in its elite form – has considerable

appeal to most Filipinos.”



“Filipinos accept and understand personalistic and

family based politics.”



“enjoy political competition”

“advances their personal interests”



“decline of socialism and communism”




THREATH TO THE STABILITY AND VIABILITY OF DEMOCRACY

THREATH TO THE STABILITY AND VIABILITY OF DEMOCRACY

SIGNIFICANT DECLINE OF ITS LEGITIMACY

SIGNIFICANT DECLINE OF ITS LEGITIMACY

IRRESPONSIBLE AND SELF-INTERESTED POLITICAL ELITE

•Political Corruption• Electoral Fraud• Manipulation and Selective Application of Law

POLITICAL ACTORS DO NOT ABIDE BY THE SYSTEM OF RULES GOVERNING THEIR

PARTICIPATION IN THE SYSTEM

GOVERNMENT’S INEFFECTIVENESS

RESULTING TO PUBLIC FRUSTRATION

•Opposition’s flirtation with military interventionism• Extra-constitutional paths to power

• Crimes• Daily Power Shortages• Poor Garbage Collection• Endless Traffic Jams•Shortage of Public Transportation

StrengtheningNational and

LocalGovernment

1. Strengthening National and Local Government

A. “The National Government must do fewer things better and Sub-National Government Units must be given more responsibility and more resources.”

B. “ Government must demonstrate a sustained commitment to a more equitable distribution of political and economic opportunity.”

C. “ The Legal system must be a vehicle for change rather than an impediment to it.”




-Timberman


1. Strengthening National and Local GovernmentA. “The National Government must do fewer things better and Sub-

National Government Units must be given more responsibility and more resources.”

-Timberman


* There is a unitary structure of government limiting the capabilities of most LGU.

* There is persistence of traditional political behaviour.

•Gradual transfer of fiscal, planning and administrative authority to the Provincial

and Local levels

• Upgrade the quality of Local Officials

• Local Groups (Church, Media and NGC’s) must be vigilant to ensure honesty and accountability

1. Strengthening National and Local GovernmentA. “The National Government must do fewer things better and Sub-

National Government Units must be given more responsibility and more resources.”

-Timberman


CONTINUITY CHANGE

LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CODE

OF 1991


B. “ Government must demonstrate a sustained commitment to a more equitable distribution of political and economic opportunity .”

-Timberman




-Timberman


There is an undesirable Government who serves only the interest of the political and economic elite.

The new generation of political parties and non-governmental groups (such as the interests/cause-oriented groups , Church, Media) should bring pressure to bear on

the elected officials.



-Timberman




-Timberman


Legal system has been used as a way to protect elite interests particularly with regard to land ownership.

•It must me more responsive to theneeds of the poor majority of Filipinos.

• There must be more and better trainedprosecutors and judges, more courtsoutside Metro Manila and more legalaid and education.

•Quicker and firmer punishment forcorruption, human rights violation,evasion of agrarian reform and taxesand exploitation of natural resources

Reducing the Military’s

PoliticsRole in

2. Reducing the Military’s Role in Politics

A. “Establishing Civilian Credibility and Asserting Civilian Authority: The Civilian Government must earn the respect of the Military.”

B. “Restore the belief of the Primacy of Civilian Rule by earn the respect of the younger generation of officers.”


2. Reducing the Military’s Role in PoliticsA. “Establishing Civilian Credibility and Asserting Civilian Authority: The Civilian Government must earn the respect of the Military.”

-Timberman


Constitutionalist in the AFP asserts their rights to have a major role in shaping policies particularly in national security.

UcePoliticians and officials must

govern more effectively , develop greater expertise in national security issues andwork more closely with the military.


B. “Restore the belief of the Primacy of Civilian Rule to earn the respect of the younger generation of officers.”

- Timberman


2. Reducing the Military’s Role in PoliticsB. “Restore the belief of the Primacy of Civilian Rule to earn the

respect of the younger generation of officers.” - Timberman

Challenges for the FutureU

ce

The Civilian Leadership should always demonstrate the supremacy of its ability in governing the country effectively.

The country continuous to face the threat of military intervention.



B. “Restore the belief of the Primacy of Civilian Rule by earn the respect of the younger generation of officers.”


ReducingPoverty and

Inequality

•The Philippine Economy is likely to grow at a rate of 4-6%/yr during the early 1990s

•If this growth rate is maintained, it should improve the economic well-being of many Filipinos, particularly the relatively more skilled members of the work-force.

But, macroeconomic growth alone is not enough There must also be a more equitable distribution of the benefits of economic growth

Only in this way can there be a significant reduction in the country’s pervasive poverty

- David G. Timberman

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

Poverty Rate

Economic Development Plan (EDP) on reducingPoverty during the Aquino Administration

Aim(s) to realize the EDP

1. )The economy must grow almost 7 percent each year**agriculture must grow 5% a yr, a rate considerably higher than the average for the late 1980s

2.) Domestic investment must grow almost 20% a year3.) 950, 000 new jobs must be created annually; and4.) Government must spend relatively more on social services rather than defence.

Challenges

•Sustain a genuine economic commitment to poverty reduction, and to secure the legislation and funding necessary to achieve it.•Address fundamental causes of poverty and inequality

a. Inequitable distribution of economic assets and opportunities

b. Rapid population growthc. Environmental degradationd. Deterioration of the education system

Ending theCommunistInsurgency

The communist insurgency is largely, though not exclusively, a function of the problems:

1.) The weaknesses of the national and localgovernments

2.) The role of the military3. ) Pervasive poverty and inequity

Looking at the future of the insurgency, three points should be kept in mind:

•First, in order for the communists to successfully control the countryside, they must neutralize any competing sources of authority

•Second, communist infiltration does not succeed simply because of superior military force.

•Third, the prospects for the insurgency will be significantly affected by the future of the rural economy

Assumption: insurgency will rebound if coconut and sugar prices drop significantly and rural landlessness and unemployment continue to grow

•The restoration of democracy has actually hampered building a national consensus by going

back to the elite politics

• The Philippines have aspects that make difficult the building of a

national consensus

Building a National Consensus

Diversity of Philippine Society

Elite Politics, focusing on local level problems rather than banding together to build a national agenda

The Roadblocks to a National Consensus

Philippine politics is reduced to man versus man

What is public is made private and abused

Differences create no-holds-barred conflicts between groups within Philippine Society

Consequences of the Roadblocks

Greater emphasis on commonalities, rather than differences

Unequivocal commitment of the Filipino people to Democracy, not just the concept

What it Takes to Create a National Consensus

Three ways the system can be radically fixed:Economic development to build stronger classes, aside

from the elitePolitical or economic crises, which may give rise to an

authoritarian governmentGradual improvement in Philippine political leadership

Transforming Philippine Politics

New sources of leadership are springing forth, not being limited to the elite

These leaders may bring change through their observations from the outside

Best change is through class action that transforms the politics in spite of elite interests

Improvement of Philippine Political Leadership

Prospects for Change in a Changeless Land (Pol Sci 14)

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