Prospects and challenges of Energy transition in Vietnam · Prospects and challenges of Energy...
Transcript of Prospects and challenges of Energy transition in Vietnam · Prospects and challenges of Energy...
Prospects and challenges of Energy transition in Vietnam Presented by: Do Minh Tam – VSEA Coordinator
GreenID is a member of the Vietnam Sustainable Energy Alliance
12nd Jul 2017
GreenID is a Vietnam non profit organization (NPO) recognized by Decision 840/QD – LHH dated 27th December 2011
Vision Mission
Sustainable development for the citizens of Vietnam and the larger Mekong region based on widespread use of green, innovative technologies and methods as well as improved governance of the environment and natural resources
GreenID works to achieve fundamental change in the approach to sustainable development by promoting the transition to a sustainable energy system, good environmental governance and inclusive decision process
Introduction about GreenID
Content
1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam
2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in Vietnam
3. Alternative solutions for the sustainable energy development: Oppotunities and challanges
1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam
Source: PDP VII Revised
Power demand forecast in 2020
Installed capacity by fuel Projected power production by fuel
Hydropower & pumped-
storage hydropower
30.1%
Coal power, 42.7%
Oil + Gas power, 14.9%
Small hydropower +Renewable energy, 9.9%
Nuclear power, 0.0%
Import, 2.4%
Hydropower & pumped-
storage hydropower,
25.2%
Coal power, 49.3%
Oil + Gas power, 16.6%
Small hydropower +
Renewable energy, 6.5%
Nuclear power, 0.0% Import, 2.4%
1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam
Source: PDP VII Revised
In 2030
Hydropower & pumped-
storage hydropower
16.9%
Coal power, 42.7%
Oil + gas power, 14.7%
Small hydropower +Renewable
energy, 21.0%
Nuclear power, 3.6%
Import, 1.2%
Installed capacity by fuel Projected power production by fuel
Hydropower & pumped-
storage hydropower,
12.4%
Coal power, 53.2%
Oil + gas power, 16.8%
Small hydropower +Renewable
energy, 10.7%
Nuclear power, 5.7%
Import, 1.2%
Coal-fired power plants Development Map
2016 2030
1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam
Coal power development in Vietnam
In PDPVII Revised
Year
Number of coal-fired
power plants
Coal power
capacity
Share of total
installed capacity
Total energy
generated from coal
power
Share in total
energy production
Domestic coal
Imported coal
MW % TWh %
Tons (in million)
Tons (in million)
2015 19 13157 33.4 56.400 34.3 33.3 0
2020 31 25787 42.7 130.932 49.3 39.021 24.495
2025 47 45152 47.3 220.165 55.0 38.905 56.257
2030 52 55252 42.7 304.478 53.3 44.433 85.243
Increase 3 times
Increase 4 times
Increase 5 times
Increase 4 times
Issues of Power Planning
• High demand projection
• Not taking into account Energy Efficiency potential in meeting demand
• Relying on fossil fuel, very modest RE
• Focus on supply side only
• Need to import coal for power generating (Est. ~ 2015)
• Vietnam Energy will depend gradually on import
• Climate Change target
Challenges for Energy security and
Sustainable Development
1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam
Efforts of CSOs in revised PDP
1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam
• Research components
• Policy recommendations
• Workshop & Stakeholders meeting
• VSEA experts’ comments
Increase RE: From 13 in PDP 7 to 27.2 GW ~ 21% Capacity (2030)
Reduce coal : - From 75GW to 55 GW ~ 42.7% capacity (2030) - Reduce 18 coal-fired power plants
Evaluations on coal development
1. Reducing demand: 18% less than approved PDP7
2. Reducing Pmax: about 20GW (90.6 GW againts~110MW)
3. Cancelling 18 new coal fired power plants, equivalent to 20 GW reduction in 2030
4. RE will be about 10.7% of power production in 2030 (excluding big hydropower)
5. Nuclear power is delayed and reduced
However, coal is still the biggest share in the power mix both in term of capacity and production, and expose High pollution risk
1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam
Impression of Energy production
2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN
Coal mine waste storage collapsed in 2015
Coal mine waste collaped in 2015
2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN
PM2.5 emission from coal-fired power plants in 2030
2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN
2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN
2016 2030
26 plants 67 plants
13000 MW 55,300 MW Air Quality Report in Hanoi, 2016
Alternative solutions for
the sustainable energy development
Oppotunities and challanges
3. Alternative solutions for
the sustainable energy development
RE sources Current development Projects in the
pipeline Potential 2015 %
Small hydro 7,000 2,152 31% NA
Wind 7,000 135 2% ~ 6000 MW
Solar PV 20,000 5 0.03% ~ 1500 MW
Biomass 3,000 375 12.5% NA
Biogas 58 2 3.45% NA
Geothermal 220 0 0% NA
Municipal Waste
340 2.4 0.7% NA
Tidal 200 0 0% NA
Average 37,818 2,671 7%
Solar potentials
• Solar radiation map supported by Spanish Embassy
• Using GIS to identify the potential of solar power being able to connected to grid
• Total potential capacity: 22.000 MW, mostly in the South
Wind and Solar PV prices declining significantly
Source: IEA
Evaluations on RE development
Share of RE increased but insignificantly (5.2% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2020 and 21% in 2030).
Solar and wind power still only make up a modest share
Current renewable energy development in the world:
Renewable energy investment is two times higher than investment into fossil fuels in 2015 (UNEP report)
Technology is advancing
Price of technology reduces -> able to compete with fossil fuel energy
Energy Efficiency: Lack elaboration on this in PDP VII Revised
Power demand forecast: Can reduce to 33.8% compared to 18% suggested in PDP VII R evised (according to GreenID’s research)
Solutions to move forwards
Priority 1: accelerating Energy Efficiency solutions:
• GreenID’s EE scenarios and Power sector vision recommended power demand has potential to reduce up to 208 billion kWh in 2030.
• Demand side management may help to cut down 30,000 – 42,000 MW of total installed capacity (including 20,000 - 32,000 MW of coal-fired power and 10,000MW of nuclear power) in 2030 while fully meeting demand.
• Which saves 45 – 50 billion USD from investing in building new coal power plants
Priority 2: Restructure of economic model: prioritizing less energy consumption sectors, banning the energy intensity usage sector such as cement, steel…
Priority 3: Increasing higher RE share in the power mix, especially in the South
Source: GreenID, WB,
Collective Strength of
Vietnam Sustainable Energy Alliance (VSEA)
VSEA supports Vietnam transformation into a green growing economy by following the four main approaches
Renewable Energy Week
Watch Video about first REW 2016: http://bit.ly/REW2016
In November 2016, VSEA initiated the first Renewable Energy Week in Vietnam. It took place in Can Tho and Hanoi. The event attracted the participation of: • Southwest Steering Committee, MOIT,
VUSTA • Representatives from Mekong Delta • Community leaders • Developments partners • Speakers, from Germany, Netherlands,
Belgium, Phillippines, … • Media & journalists
Thanks for your attention!
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