www.prosalesonline.com10 / ProSales / January 2010

ProWatch 2010 Forecast

Partial ClearingExpect more building permits in most markets this year, but the gains will be far from historic.

You may have seen the national housing forecasts for this year, but what are the prospects where you live? We asked Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI), a sister company of ProSales, to help answer that question by forecasting how many building permits HWMI expects will be issued in 2010 in the 12 biggest markets in each of four census regions. HWMI predicts the changes will range from a 255% rise in Detroit to a 28% drop in Salt Lake City. The average is a 33% increase from 2009. But before you break out the champagne, note the bottom number in each box. That shows the 2010 forecast number as a percentage of the seasonally adjusted annual version of that market’s best month since 1979. For instance, Atlanta’s 13,189 is just 7.4% of the annual rate for its best single month in the past 30 years. In just one case does the growth even rank in the top half. Can’t fi nd your market? Visit www.prosalesmagazine.com/2010forecast for forecasts in the top 25 markets in each of the four regions.

Omaha/Omaha/Council BluffsCouncil Bluffs3,079 3,079 // 17% 17%

20.9%20.9%

Houston/Houston/Sugar Land/Sugar Land/

BaytownBaytown31,965 31,965 // 13% 13%

42.6%42.6%

San AntonioSan Antonio8,139 8,139 // 27% 27%

30.3%30.3%

Dallas/Dallas/Forth Worth/Forth Worth/

ArlingtonArlington25,094 25,094 // 13% 13%

23.9%23.9%

Denver/Aurora/Denver/Aurora/Broomfi eldBroomfi eld6,782 6,782 // 49% 49%

16.2%16.2%

Sacramento/Sacramento/Arden-Arcade/Arden-Arcade/

RosevilleRoseville4,551 4,551 // 50% 50%

7.8%

San Francisco/San Francisco/Oakland/Oakland/FremontFremont

8,114 8,114 // 46% 46%16.5%16.5%

San Diego/Carlsbad/Carlsbad/

San MarcosSan Marcos5,011 5,011 // 79% 79%

10.9%10.9%

Portland/Portland/Vancouver/Vancouver/BeavertonBeaverton

11,330 11,330 // 39% 39%34.2%34.2%

Riverside/San Bernardino/

OntarioOntario5,719 5,719 // 18% 18%

6.1%6.1%

Phoenix /Phoenix /Mesa/Mesa/

ScottsdaleScottsdale12,231 12,231 // 23% 23%

7.9%7.9%

AlbuquerqueAlbuquerque2,977 2,977 // 60% 60%

25.0%25.0%

Salt Lake CitySalt Lake City2,337 2,337 // --28%28%

7.9%7.9%

Seattle/ Tacoma/Seattle/ Tacoma/BellevueBellevue

6,540 6,540 // --11%11%4.6%4.6%

Los Angeles/Long Beach/Long Beach/Santa AnaSanta Ana

14,512 14,512 // 89% 89%11.2%11.2%

Las Vegas/ParadiseLas Vegas/Paradise6,545 6,545 // 17% 17%

9.7%9.7%

Austin/Austin/Round RockRound Rock10,019 10,019 // 8% 8%

31.0%31.0%

Minneapolis/Minneapolis/St. Paul /St. Paul /

BloomingtonBloomington7,178 7,178 // 16% 16%

9.6%9.6%

St. Louis8,125 / 33%

17.7%

Kansas CityKansas City4,552 4,552 // 69% 69%

11.1%11.1%

Springfi eldSpringfi eld2,029 2,029 // 70% 70%

32.6%32.6%

www.prosalesonline.com January 2010 / ProSales / 11

Northeast Just under a quarter of the 100 markets HWMI examined

expect drops in permits in 2010, and nine of them are in the Northeast. Even the places that expect growth

have little to cheer, as most are forecast to show some of the lowest permits numbers of the past 30 years. Harrisburg looks

strongest historically, even if it expects a 5% drop in 2010.

South Florida is heading out of its slump, with growth not just in the three

big markets but also in Jacksonville (up 43%). Atlanta’s 53% growth looks good, but it used to

rank fi rst or second in permits nationally, and now it’s seventh. Houston, No. 1 now, might still be benefi ting

from the out-migration after Hurricane Katrina; Mobile’s expecting 26% growth, one of its best years ever.

West Variety is the order of the day from the Rockies west. Rates for the region’s 25 biggest markets range

from a 105% rise in Tucson, Ariz., to a 64% fall in Olympia, Wash. Historically, there’s little to cheer as

well; Orem, Utah, and Eugene, Ore., both will post the best numbers compared with the past 30

years, but still will be less than half their peaks.

Midwest Chicago ranks fourth nationally in the number of building permits forecast for 2010, and its 76% growth is among the country’s best. But per-

centage changes can be deceiving; Detroit’s triple-digit rise follows some horrible years, while Omaha won’t grow as much

in part because it didn’t fall as far. Outside the top 12, look out for No. 21 Manhattan, Kan.

It’s expected to top 1,000 permits in 2010. That’s 77% of its best perfor-

mance since 1979.

Indianapolis /Indianapolis /CarmelCarmel

6,680 6,680 // 37% 37%17.5%17.5%

ColumbusColumbus6,443 6,443 // 26% 26%

18.7%

Detroit /Detroit /Warren/Warren/LivoniaLivonia

4,896 4,896 // 255%13.8%13.8%

Cleveland/Cleveland/Elyria /MentorElyria /Mentor

2,590 2,590 // 29% 29%11.3%

Houston/Sugar Land/

Baytown31,965 / 13%

42.6%

Tampa/Tampa/St. Petersburg/St. Petersburg/

ClearwaterClearwater6,501 6,501 // 68% 68%

6.5%6.5%Miami /Miami /

Fort Lauderdale/Fort Lauderdale/Pompano BeachPompano Beach

9,446 9,446 // 244% 244%8.4%8.4%

Washington/Arlington/Arlington/AlexandriaAlexandria

12,805 12,805 // --3%3%3.5%3.5%

Philadelphia /Philadelphia /Camden/Camden/

WilmingtonWilmington7,090 7,090 // 23% 23%

6.5%6.5%

Atlanta/Atlanta/Sandy Springs /Sandy Springs /

MariettaMarietta13,189 13,189 // 53% 53%

7.4%7.4%

Nashville / Davidson/Nashville / Davidson/Murfreesboro/ FranklinMurfreesboro/ Franklin

6,672 6,672 // 62% 62%21.1%21.1%

Louisville/Louisville/Jefferson County

3,005 3,005 // 24% 24%11.8%11.8%

Charlotte/Charlotte/Gastonia /ConcordGastonia /Concord

6,611 6,611 // 13% 13%11.5%11.5%

Orlando/Orlando/KissimmeeKissimmee

6,155 6,155 // 133% 133%7.4%7.4%

Minneapolis/St. Paul /

Bloomington7,178 / 16%

9.6%

DATA SOURCE: HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Market LocationMarket LocationTotal permits 2010 (estimated) Total permits 2010 (estimated) // Percent change from 2009 Percent change from 20092010 forecast as percentage of best month (converted to a 2010 forecast as percentage of best month (converted to a

seasonally adjusted annual rate) since 1979seasonally adjusted annual rate) since 1979

Map LegendMap Legend

11 7%18.18 7%

Cincinnati/Cincinnati/MiddletownMiddletown3,230 3,230 // 61% 61%

8.1%8.1%

St. LouisSt. Louis8,125 8,125 // 33% 33%

17.7%17.7%

Springfi eld2,029 / 70%

32.6%

Chicago/Chicago/Naperville /Naperville /

JolietJoliet21,041 21,041 // 76% 76%

18.2%18.2%

Albany/Albany/Schenectady/Schenectady/

TroyTroy1,663 1,663 // 91% 91%

14.3%

Allentown/Allentown/Bethlehem/Bethlehem/

EastonEaston1,332 1,332 // 26% 26%

8.6%8.6%%

Pittsburgh1,944 1,944 // 10%

6.0%6.0%

RochesterRochester1,379 1,379 // 47% 47%

7.2%7.2%

Harrisburg /Harrisburg /CarlisleCarlisle

2.420 2.420 // --5%5%51.4%51.4%

BuffaloBuffalo/Niagara FallsNiagara Falls1,380 1,380 // 67% 67%

13.5%13.5%

Boston/Cambridge/Cambridge/

QuincyQuincy2,981 2,981 // --17%17%

4.5%

Portland/Portland/South Portland/South Portland/

BiddefordBiddeford1,412 1,412 // --21%21%

8.7%8.7%

New York/Northern New Jersey/Northern New Jersey/

Long IslandLong Island23,163 23,163 // 42% 42%

13.5%13.5%

%3%

Hartford/Hartford/West Hartford/West Hartford/East HartfordEast Hartford1,282 1,282 // 39% 39%

7.2%7.2%

4.5%4.5%

Providence/Providence/New Bedford/New Bedford/

Fall RiverFall River1,173 1,173 // --13%13%

3.8%3.8%

WorcesterWorcester1,441 1,441 // 67% 67%

11.0%11.0%