Proposed Contract to Perform Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking

Capability Study

Mary JohannisMary JohannisPNW Resource Adequacy Steering CommitteePNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee

January 29, 2008January 29, 2008

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 2

Reason for Contract

• Regional Hydro Evaluations– Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA)

• Annual Critical Period Planning Studies Firm Energy Load Carrying Capability (FELCC)

– PNUCC’s Northwest Regional Forecast (NRF)• Uses Corps’ Model for Firm Hydro Energy• No Capacity Analysis in April 2007 NRF

– BPA’s White Book• Uses BPA’s HYDSIM Model for Hydro Energy• Monthly Firm Energy• Firm Peak Hour Capacity• FCRPS Operational Capacity ≠ Sustained Hydro Peak Capability

• NO REGIONAL SUSTAINED HYDRO PEAKING CAPABILITY ANALYSES

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 3

Reason for Contract

• Need for Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability Analyses:– Informs Hydro Utilities’ Resource Planning Efforts– Assures Consistent Assumptions re: Flows on

Common Tributaries– Bottom-up Assessment for a number of Hydro

Conditions Check of GENESYS-based Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability

– Allows for Consistent Hydro Capacity Reporting to WECC

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 4

Scope of Work

• PHASE I:– Select Contractor, who is knowledgeable of PNW Hydro and

is Well-Respected– Contractor to facilitate Development of Detailed Scope of

Work

• PHASE II: Contractor– Treats Individual Data and Analyses as Confidential– Assembles/Develops 18 hour Sustained Hydro Peaking

Capabilities for a number of different Run-off Conditions– Assures consistency of Flow Assumptions– Checks that Aggregate Purchases ≤ Assumptions in

Capacity Adequacy Standard

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 5

General Methodology to Evaluate Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability

Hyd

ro C

alcu

lati

on

Eve

nt

Du

rati

on 18 hour Sustained Peaking Duration:

Decide for what months to evaluate Capacity Adequacy Standard--January and July? Using expected loads 1/, select peak day & peak hour for winter & summer months. Hydro capacity to be evaluated over 6 highest load hours for 3 continuous days with highest average peak.

Adverse Hydro:

Select a number of historical summer & winter runoff conditions and critical hydro as a reference point. Determine if there is a historical year with both adverse summer and winter runoff conditions workable for

WECC reporting.

Evaluate Maximum Hydro Capability over 3 Day Event:

Evaluate maximum hydro capability by increasing load using Cold Snap/Heat Wave load shape to maximizegeneration possible over peak hours, constrained by physical/operational constrainsts and someassumption as to allowable purchases.

For the winter event, maximize hydro generation over both peaks of the daily load curve. Decide on appropriate purchase assumptions, if any. Define NON-EMERGENCY heat-wave and cold-snap hydro operations (may not differ from normal ops). Sum hourly hydro generation for 6 highest load hours over 3 days and divide by 18. This is sustained hydro peaking capacity and is maximized for system capability, i.e. not planned to load.

1/ i.e. temperature neutral loads

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 6

Example: Maximized FCRPS Sustained Peaking Capability

Peak Day of 3 Day Event

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

MW

s Historical Cold Snap Hydro

Expected Load

CalculatedSustained FCRPS Cap

Purchases PurchasesCapto meet

ExpectedLoad

Surplus Cap to meet PRM

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 7

Deliverables

• 18-hour Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability Values per Hydro Project or per Utility

• 1 Hour Peak Hydro Capacity Number from Analysis• Facilitated Discussion of Results of Analysis to

allow for the selection of Regional Runoff Condition 1/ , for Which to Report to WECC and possibly PNUCC

1/ which meets WECC’s criteria for reporting hydro capacity

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 8

Deliverables

Filled in

Values

18 HOUR SUSTAINED HYDRO PEAKING

CAPACITY

NAME OWNER STATE RIVER SYSTEM TRIBUTARY TO:

NAMEPLATE CAPACITY(

MW)

WINTER CAPACITY

(MW) Jan/July

18 hr aMW

Jan/July Peak

hour MW

RUN-OF-RIVER

(ROR) OR STORAGE

AVG YR GEN

(aMW)

CRIT YR GEN

(aMW)

Cabinet Gorge Avista Corp ID Clarke Fork R. Columbia R. 231.3 230 ROR w/ Div 120 84 Post Falls Avista Corp ID Clarke Fork R. Columbia R. 14.8 15 Storage 11 8 Noxon Rapids Avista Corp MT Clarke Fork R. Columbia R. 466.2 515 Storage 203 123 Little Falls Avista Corp WA Spokane R. Columbia R. 32 36 ROR 20 20 Long Lake Avista Corp WA Spokane R. Columbia R. 71 79 Storage 59 46 Monroe Street Avista Corp WA Spokane R. Columbia R. 14.8 15 ROR w/ Div 12 10 Nine Mile Avista Corp WA Spokane R. Columbia R. 26.4 18 ROR 14 12 Upper Falls Avista Corp WA Spokane R. Columbia R. 10 10 ROR w/ Div 9 9 TOTAL HYDRO 866 918 448 312 Chelan Chelan PUD WA Chelan R. Columbia R. 48 57 Storage w/

Div 46 39

Rock Island Chelan PUD WA Columbia R. 622.5 570 ROR 352 278 Rocky Reach Chelan PUD WA Columbia R. 1300 1278 ROR 710 556 TOTAL HYDRO 1970.5 1905 1108 873 Yelm Centralia City WA Nisqually R. 12 10 ROR w/ Div 9 9 Wells Douglas Co PUD WA Columbia R 774 840 ROR 527 410 Carmen EWEB OR McKenzie R. Williamette 104.5 26 Storage w/

Div 22 16

Leaburg EWEB OR McKenzie R. Williamette 15 4 ROR w/ Div 10 10

January 29, 2008 PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg 9

Cost Sharing

• Funding Entities– BPA– Council

• In-kind Services– Hydro Utilities: Providing Data, Analyses and

Quality Control Checks