Property- V alue Movement in Old North Durham
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Transcript of Property- V alue Movement in Old North Durham
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Property-Value Movement in Old North DurhamBy Katerina Valtcheva
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Old North Durham - Overview Developed with the construction of tobacco warehouses
and related commercials and industrial ventures
Considered a bad area despite proximity to CBD
Farmers market, North Durham Elementary School have had some effect on the area
Hypothesis: Recent commercial upturn has had a positive impact on the area (Fullsteam Brewery, Motorco Music Hall, Geer Street Garden, CocoaCinnamon)
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Old North Durham – Motorco Area
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Old North Durham - Data Forty house values collected annually for the first month of each
year starting in Jan 2006 and ending in Jan 2013 (Zillow estimates)
Houses located on: W Geer St., North St., Hargrove St., Glendale Ave, Northwood Cir, and N Mangum St.
Built between 1910 and 2004
Average house size: 1375 ft2 (± 523 ft2)
Average lot size: 6121 ft2 (±1640 ft2)
Average year built: 1937 (±20 years)
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Control Area: East Durham and Edgemont
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Why this area as a control? Similarly industrial: historical roots in milling and textiles
Similar houses, built around the same time period
Approximately the same distance from CBD
Also economically depressed area
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East Durham and Edgemont
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East Durham and Edgemont - Data
Houses located on: Hart St., S Driver St., Roberson St., Angier Ave, Vale St., S Plum St., E Main St., Clay St., and Ashe St.
Built between 1900 and 1992
Average home size: 1432 ft2 (±476 ft2)
Average lot size: 7047 ft2 (±1413 ft2)
Averages year built: 1929 (± 21 years)
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Findings
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Findings - Continued
Difference between the slopes of the best-fitting line: 0.0113 in favor of the control area
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Findings - Continued
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Findings - Continued
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Findings - Continued Old North Durham: with the addition of data points through
2013, the slope of the price curve falls from .0206 to .0108
East Durham/Edgemont: the slope of the line describing the overall trend of house prices went from positive .0319 (between 2006-2010) to negative .0275 (when data points are included through 2013)
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Statistically Significant Differences
Running a Student’s t test comparing mean home prices on a year-by-year basis: the difference in mean home values between the two neighborhoods was statistically significant from 2010 (p<<0.001)
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Running Multivariable Regressions on House Size, Lot Size, and Year
Built
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Running Multivariable Regressions on House Size, Lot Size, and Year Built
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Running Multivariable Regressions on House Size, Lot Size, and Year Built
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Appendix