Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of Britain

D.A. Coleman and M.D. Smith

Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford

http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

European Population Conference 2003 Session F429 August 2003

Demographic effects of international migration on the UK

• Project funded by Nuffield Foundation. Aims:• 1. Reconcile past immigration flow data with estimates of

stock from various sources.• 2. Determine migration effect on size and age-structure of

UK population and workforce.• 3. Project the populations of UK ethnic minority and

immigrant origin into the future, revise national projections • Major effort so far on fertility estimates and migration.• Thanks for help to ONS LS and Celsius, and ONS, for data

Some problems in making projections of UK ethnic

minority populations• Base population from (1971), 1991 and 2001

censuses, surveys. But categories changed.• No vital registration (births and deaths) by ethnic

origin or race.• Migration data weak, not available by ethnic origin.• Confusion from 2001 census – migration data

revised twice in 8 months.• Growing importance of ‘mixed’ populations.

Major sources of data on ethnic minority demographic rates

• Registration of births and deaths (by birthplace of mother/deceased only 1969)

• General Household Survey ethnic origin, but small sample, fertility histories from 1984 and own-child 1970)

• Labour Force Survey ethnic origin, large sample, no fertility (own-child method only, from 1965).

• ONS Longitudinal Study links births to mothers with census (calculated by CeLSIUS 1971-1999)

Total Period Fertility Rate, 1981-1997: Country of Birth of Mother

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

India Pakistan Bangladesh East Africa

Rest of Africa Caribbean Far East Total UK

Source: Series FM1 No's 8-26, ONS

2.3

1.9

0.8

3.7

2.4

1.0

3.5

2.3

1.1

2.9

2.3

0.9

4.8

4.2

1.3

4.8

4.1

1.7

2.9

1.9

0.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1929-1944 1945-1959 1960-1984

White

Caribbean

Black-African

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Source: General Household Survey, 1988-2000/01

Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic Origin: GHS women born 1929

- 1984)

TFR, 1965-2000: Comparing UK LFS own-child estimates (whites) with

Registration data

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

TFR

LFS Estimate (Whites, UK)

Registrations (UK)

Total Fertility Rates by Ethnic Group, UK, 1965-2001, from LFS (own-child)

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

TF

R

WhitesCaribbeansIndiansPakistanisBangladeshisBlack-AfricansChinese

Source: Labour Force Survey, 1979-1991; Quarterly Labour Force Survey, 1992-2001 (Autumn)

TFR, Indian Women, 1965-2001

TFR, Black-African Women, 1965-2001

Contribution of Mixed Births to Total Births by Ethnic Group of mother, UK,

1992-200140.7

35.3

16.6

12.8

8.9

4.11.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45C

hine

se

Car

ibbe

an

Bla

ck-

Afr

ican

Indi

an

Pak

ista

ni

Ban

glad

eshi

Whi

te

% M

ixe

d B

irth

s

Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, 1992-2001 (Autumn Quarters)

TFR (all women), 1971-1999: data sources compared

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

25ap

r197

1-1J

an19

71

01Ja

n197

5-

01Ja

n197

9-

01Ja

n198

3-

01Ja

n198

7-

01Ja

n199

1-

01Ja

n199

5-

01Ja

n199

9-

TFR

LS

LFS

GHS

Registrations

Notes:(1) Periods for ONS Longitudinal Study are 1971-1974, 1975-1979, 1980-1984, 1985-1989, 1990-1994, and 1995-1999(2) GHS covers Britain, LFS covers UK, and LS covers England & Wales

Indian TFR moving average (5) 1977 - 2000

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Pakistani TFR 1980-2001 and fitted trends to 2026

Linear y = -0.1074x + 4.9331

R2 = 0.8957

Exponential y = 5.087e-0.0294x

R2 = 0.8847

Logarithmic y = -0.8284Ln(x) + 5.5228

R2 = 0.8538

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.019

80

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

'Black African' TFR trend 1965 - 2001, with fitted logarithmic curve. LFS own-child data

y = 0.2186Ln(x) + 1.5839

R2 = 0.0944

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

TFR of foreign or overseas-born populations, selected European countries 1970 - 1995

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

TFR

Swedes Foreigners in Sweden Dutch Foreigners in Netherlands

Swiss Foreigners in Switzerland UK New Commonwealth

TFR trends, US populations by race and Hispanic origin, 1960 - 2001

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

1963

1961

All races Black (race of mother) Black (race of mother)Asian / Pacific Islander Hispanic Non-Hispanic White

Mortality• Mortality statistics: for minority groups ASMRs

difficult to compute in many age-groups: small numbers, under-19s deficient. Overall SMRs too low.

• Analysis by others suggests adult mortality of immigrants not far from UK average (some are superior); IMR mostly higher.

• For initial projections England and Wales life tables used, projected to 2051 according to GAD 2003 provisional figures.

Estimating net ethnic migration• Migration data by residence / birthplace turned

into ethnic flows with IPS, LFS data. • Over 45% of recent overall net inflow belonged to

ethnic minority populations.• Projecting future level difficult: GAD assume

constant net level to 2051 but at lower level (100k) than actual ONS figure (172k net in 2001).

• Current trends and policy indicate continued increase; projections here assume recent average level, or zero, only.

• Complicated by two recent post-census revisions.

Net foreign immigration to UK 1982-2001. Two estimates (thousands)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Foreign citizens post-2001 census final Foreign citizens pre-2001 census)

Net immigration to UK 1991-2000, New Commonwealth and 'Other foreign'. (thousands) MN 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Total NC (incl SA) Other foreign

Birthplace of foreign-born immigrants in the UK describing themselves as Indian

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1940

-194

4

1945

-194

9

1950

-195

4

1955

-195

9

1960

-196

4

1965

-196

9

1970

-197

4

1975

-197

9

1980

-198

4

1985

-198

9

1990

-199

4

1995

-200

1

Period of arrival

N

Guyana

Other NewCommonwealth

Other Africa

Mauritius

Sri Lanka

Malawi, Nyasaland(Malawi)

Zanzibar (Tanzania)

Uganda

Kenya

India

Source: all foreign born persons present in the UK Labour Force Survey, 1991-2001 (Autumn Quarters)Note: survivorship issue! (immigrants had to survive until the period 1990-2001, and had to remain)

Foreign-born Black-African inflow, 1986-2002 by sex and age upon arrival

GAD Net immigration assumptions, and reality, 1996 -

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

GAD PP 1996GAD PP 1998GAD PP 2000GAD PP 2001Actual (pre-2001 census)Actual (post-2001 census)

Net foreign immigration to UK 1982-2001 and forecast, post-2001 census basis (thousands)

linear y = 19.66x + 26.46

R2 = 0.9312

polynomial 3 y = 0.1904x3 - 2.5x2 + 27.091x + 24.24

R2 = 0.9408

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

Foreign citizens post-2001 censusfinalLinear (Foreign citizens post-2001census final)Poly. (Foreign citizens post-2001census final)

Some preliminary UK projections

• Diversity in initial population structure and size

• Diversity in fertility rates and trend• Diversity in migration levels• Mortality assumed to be England and Wales

average• ‘Mixed’ populations not considered yet –

limits choice of groups.

Indian population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

females males

Pakistani population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

males females

Chinese population, England and Wales.

Census 2001 (percent)

7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

males females

'Black African' population, England and Wales Census

2001 (percent)

7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

males females

British Pakistani population projections 2001-2051 (thousands)

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

S 6 No mig, TFR 1.75 2016 S 8 Mig 12k, TFR 1.75 2016 S 9 No mig, TFR 2.05 2046-51

S 10 Mig 12k, TFR 2.05 2046-51 S 11 No mig, TFR 2.96 constant

Population Projections 2001-2051: UK South Asian Groups - Some high and low variants

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Indians (P ostive Migration at 1991-2000annual average, Fertility held constant at2001 level)

P akistanis (P ostive Migration at 1991-2000 annual average, Fertility heldconstant at 2001 level)

Bangladeshis (P ostive Migration at 1991-2000 annual average, Fertility heldconstant at 2001 level)

Indians (Zero Migration at 1991-2000annual average, Fertilityconverging/declining at projected ratebased on 1980-2001 trend)

P akistanis (Zero Migration at 1991-2000annual average, Fertilityconverging/declining at projected ratebased on 1980-2001 trend)

Bangladeshis (Zero Migration at 1991-2000 annual average, Fertilityconverging/declining at projected ratebased on 1980-2001 trend)

African population in Britain 1971-2001 (thousands)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1971 1981 1991 2001

Projections of UK 'Black African' population, 2001-51 (thousands)

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

S1 Low fert, no migration S2 Low fert, migration S3 Constant fert, no migration S4 constant fert, migration

Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000 - 2050 as percent of total population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

perc

ent

Germany medium variant USA medium variantNetherlands base scenario Denmark 2002-based UK high migration

Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000 - 2050 as percent of total population, with zero net

migration

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

perc

ent

Germany medium variant USA medium variant Denmark base scenario

Germany zero mig US zero mig Denmark zero mig

Conclusions

• Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK are possible but with reservations.

• Only partial, preliminary projections so far.• Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is

migration, not fertility• Substantial re-alignment of relative size of groups

almost inevitable• ‘Mixed’ groups gaining rapidly in importance –

choice of identity crucial