Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Changes in scope and depth in NC3

The projections require:– wide range of competences and

agencies– presently 11 agencies involved

directly, agencies responsible sector integration

– experts from universities and consultants

•The objective to:– consider all sectors and all gases

Means

•Separate studies•Workshops•Seminars•Scrutinising by agencies and experts

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

The needs according to the guidelines

•Priorities on :– important sectors– policy and market implications– new information on development– integrated evaluation the effect of

policies and measures

The GHG emissions per sector, 1999

152%

229%

35%

40%

511%

60%

73% Energy

Transport

1. Energy (52%) 5. Agriculture (11%)

2. Transport (29%) 6. LULUCF (0)

3.Industry (5%) 7. Waste (3.2%)

4.Solvents (0.1%)

Agriculture

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Basic approach

•With measures: – 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020

•Without measures:– 1990, 1995, 2000 2005, 2010

•With additional measures– Based on Government Commission

for a new climate strategy (2000) or GB

•Other Non-GHGs (Sox, NOx, VOCs)– Projections of the EU Acidification

and Ozone Strategy

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year

Emissions of GHG

Without

measures

B a U with sensitivity

scenariosWith additional measuresAggregated

effect of PaMs

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Energy and transport

•CO2 (77 % of total GHG effect)– Consistency in GNP growth,

population and so forth– A number of scenarios to study effect

of energy supply system 2010-2020

•CH4 (1 % of total GHG effect)– Some new projection for vehicle

emissions

•N2O (3% of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?

Issues

•Phase-out of nuclear power •The energy supply system•Impact of emissions trading•Development of transport •Off-road vehicles and machinery

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Industry

•CO2 (3 % of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis, expert

advice

•N2O (1% of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?

•HFCs, PFCs, SF6 (1 % of total GHG effect)

– projections with detailed information on the emission factors

Issues

•Rapid changes of actual emissions of HFCs, PCFs and SF6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2012

kto

nn

es

CO

2-e

qv

HFCs

PFCs

SF6

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Agriculture

•CH4 (5 % of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?

•N2O (6 % of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?

Issues

•Impact of CAP and Agenda 2000•Impact of national actions and markets•Poorly integrated in climate strategy

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

•CO2 (Sink about 33 % of total GHG emission)

– Net emissions from agricultural soils - No trends ??

– Net uptake in forest stock (above ground) - Based on models for biomass increment and market demands

Issues

•Impact of CAP•Impact of national actions and market•Poorly integrated in climate strategy

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Waste

•CH4 (4 % of total GHG emission)– Modeling of the impact of future

restrictions on depositing organic material

– Modeling on the impact of methane gas

– Time dependent decay of DOC in land fills

Issues

•Importance of household waste and industrial waste burning