Projected Climate Change Impacts in Asia and Japan...downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC...

ISAP2013@Pacifico YokohamaSession: Adapting to Climate Change: Experience and Challenges for Asia

Projected Climate Change Impactsin Asia and Japanin Asia and Japan

Kiyoshi TakahashiCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Research gaps and hot topics of impact research

• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy

P j ti f i t id i f t• Projections of impacts considering future socio‐economic developmentp

• Evaluation of adaptation options

• Projections of impacts of extreme events

C i ti f t i ti i i t• Communication of uncertainties in impact projections

• Economics of adaptation

• Detection and attribution of observed impacts

Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation or related matters in Japan

• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”– Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change

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impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government

• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”– Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to

increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process– →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk

management strategies; FY2012‐2016)

• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs,

downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation

• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries

– Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs

• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program)

– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projectssome other projects

– →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)











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Risk MapAd t ti

S-4: Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on sensitive sectors in Japan(FY2005-2009; A predecessor of “S-8” project)

p

Without adaptation measures

Water Human

Improvement of ImpactProjection

Adaptationmeasures

With adaptation measures

resources health

Agriculture CoastsForestsg

Comprehensive

Climate scenario

Population

scenario

Common scenarioDevelopment of Impact

FunctionsEconomic assessment

Proposal of economic assessment method

Comprehensiveprojections

assessment methodDevelopment of monetary

assessment basic unitIntegrated

assessment tool

10

15

20GHG emissions

700

900

1100GHG concentrations

3.0

4.0

5.0Temperature changes

-15

-10

-5

0Impacts

assessment tool

0

5

10

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

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30

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20

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00 300

500

700

19

90

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60

20

70

20

80

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90

21

00

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21

50

0.0

1.0

2.0

19

90

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00

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-30

-25

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21

00

http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/seika.html

Sectoral risk maps reported in S-4 projectg j

7 １年に熱ストレスで死亡する確率（人口1000万人あたりの死亡数で示したもの）

0 1 10 100 5000 1 10 100 500

S-4 project: Impacts on Forest:Distribution of suitable habitats for beech (Fagus crenata) forests

Beech forests

( g )

Beech forests Nationwide decrease

of suitable habitats

• 2031‐2050: 35‐56%

• 2081‐2100: 69‐93%

Vulnerable area: western Japan, the Pacific side of Honshu

8

S-4 project: Synthesis of sector analyses of climate change impacts (Radar charts)

1.0Flood Area

Sl C llAffected Area due to Storm-S Fl di ( J '

1.0Flood Area

Sl C llAffected Area due to Storm-S Fl di ( J '

change impacts (Radar charts)

0.5

Slope Collapse

Sandy Beach LossAffected Area due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western

Japan)

Surge Flooding ( Japan'sthree major bays)

0.5

Slope Collapse


Japan)

Surge Flooding ( Japan'sthree major bays)

0.0Heat Stress Mortality Risk

Rice YieldAffected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding

Affected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding (Japan's three major bays)


Rice YieldAffected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding


Rice Yield

Loss of Suitable Habitats forF. crenata Forests

Risk of Pine Wilt

Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western Japan)

Flood Area

Rice Yield


Risk of Pine Wilt

Storm Surge Flooding ( Western Japan)

450s BaU

0.5

1.0

Slope Collapse


Japan)

Affected Area due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Japan'sthree major bays)

0.0

0.5

1.0

洪水氾濫面積

土砂災害リスク

砂浜喪失面積熱ストレス　　

死亡リスクコメ収量

ブナ適域喪失マツ枯れ危険域

高潮浸水被害

人口（西日本）

高潮浸水被害

人口（三大湾）

高潮浸水面積

（西日本）

高潮浸水面積

（三大湾）

2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s

2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s


Affected Population due to


apa )

9

Rice Yield


Risk of Pine Wilt

Affected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding ( Western Japan)

550s

Framework of S-8 Project (FY2010-2014)Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation

Socio‐Economic Scenarios Climate Scenarios

strategy on whole Japan and local government

【Theme 1】Research on highly reliable quantitative assessment of climate change impacts throughout Japan

Simp

assemeth

HealthAgri DisasterBio.Water

Climate Scenario downscaler al

ment

d

Integrated assessment model

Economic assessment

plifie

d

ssment

hod

Feedback from local government

Feedback from developing country

Regiona

assessm

method

【Theme 2】Research on impact assessment and comprehensive d i li i

government country

【Theme 3】Research on indexes of

vulnerability and adaptationeffectsadaptation policies

at the local government level

adaptation effects in the Asia‐Pacific

Region

Local government consortium

Various impact and adaptation studies in th A i P ifi i

Transmission of research results to domestic and international policymaking

consortium the Asia‐Pacific region



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• Develop advanced data downscaling method• Develop data assimilation technology• Develop simulation technology for climate change adaptation• http://www.mext‐isacc.jp/eng/

Development and Application of Comprehensive Downscaling

WaterCityAgriculture/Fishery

Methods for Hokkaido

An innovative method of forecasting ocean circulation and fishery-resource variabilities linked to climate change forvariabilities linked to climate change for operational use

Advanced downscaling of the local easterly cold wind "Yamase" and the winter monsoon in the Tohoku region

Advanced downscaling methods for adaptations to future snow cover change in the Sea of Japan side areas under the global warming

A Water Resources Management System Enhancing Adaptability to Climate

Development of decision support system for optimal agricultural producton under global environment changes

Development of Seamless Chemical AssimiLation System and its Application for Atmospheric Environmental Materials

Development of Decision Making System for Water Resource Policy under Climate Change in Shikoku Area

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in water hazard assessed using regional climate scenarios in the Tokyo region

Statistical downscaling of alternative climate change scenarios on the river and coastal basin managements for environmental policy-making of Kochi Prefecture

Green Innovation for Urban-Seaside Integrated Area

Development of a sophisticated downscaling model using feedback parameterizations and its applications for adaptations to urban heat islands, extremely hot days, and heavy rain falls.

(cited from the URL above and translated)











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Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase

Scheme of the S-5 project (2007-2011)g g

public awareness and contribute to the policy process (S-5 project)

Projection of climate changewith GCM

tain

tyys

is ReliabilityDevelopment of

with GCMRCM

Downscaling

Un

cert

anal

ys

Reliability assessment of GCM

pprobabilistic

climate scenario

Probabilistic climate change scenario

mp

act

essm

ent

Water resource

OceanFishery

CryosphereSLR

CropFood

Indexes of extreme event

Probabilistic climate change scenario

on on

Imas

se

「Vision of future climate」Needs on

scientific knowledge

esea

rch

on

mu

nic

atio

Communication(How to deliver scientific

knowledge to citizens)

Needs of companyNeeds of citizen

Res

com

m

Policymakers・Citizens・Companies

U t i t i GHG / i i i

[S-5] Various uncertainties in impact projection

Uncertainty in GHG / socio-economic scenario

Climate projection

NaturalClimatemodel

GHGemission

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variabilitymodel

uncertaintyemission

uncertainty

Impactj ti

Uncertainty in methods for developingprojection for developing

climate scenarios

I tImpactmodel

uncertainty

Socio-economicscenario

Climatescenario

uncertainty

Impact projection

uncertaintyuncertainty

uncertainty

[S-5] Climate scenarios based on multi-GCMs

CMIP3 data

http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php

In order to contribute to IPCC-AR4 many research teamsIn order to contribute to IPCC-AR4, many research teams in the world conducted climate projections based on common GHGs emission assumptions. The results of the psimulations were collected in PCMDI (US) and distributed publicly through the Internet.

Example of impact assessment considering uncertainty of climate projection Crop productivity assessments

using plural GCM projections

Impact on rice productivity

uncertainty of climate projection using plural GCM projections evaluated in IPCC-AR4

SRES-A2 SRES-A1B SRES-B1

Masutomi Y. et al. (2009) Agric.Ecosyst.Environ.,131,281-291

SRES A2 SRES A1B SRES B1

80-100

60-80

40-60

80-100

60-80

40-60

80-100

60-80

40-60

Probability of crop productivity decrease [%] (with CO2 fertilization；２０８０s-１９９０s)

20-40

1-20

0-1

20-40

1-20

0-1

20-40

1-20

0-1

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.5

0

0.1

0.2

～-20

～-15

～-10

0～-5

-5～0

0～5

5～10

0～15

5～20

0～25

0

0.1

0.2

～-20

～-15

～-10

0～-5

-5～0

0～5

5～10

0～15

5～20

0～25

0

0.1

0.2

～-20

～-15

～-10

～-5

5～0

0～5

～10

～15

～20

～25

PDFs of estimated productivity change (Asia；with CO2 fertilization；２０８０s-１９９０s)

-25～

-20～

-15～

-10 - 5

10

15

20

生産量変化率[%]

-25～

-20～

-15～

-10 - 5

10

15

20


-25～

-20～

-15～

-10 - 5

10

15

20












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http://www jamstec go jp/kakushin21/en

Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century http://www.jamstec.go.jp/kakushin21/enp j y

(cited from a brochure of the program)

Example of KAKUSHIN’s output on climate change impacts

Change ratio of extreme flood discharge (yearly maximum daily discharge, 50‐year return period).(y y y g , y p )

Th f i b i l t l th 3000000K 2The area of river basins are equal to or larger than 3000000Km2. Top: Ratio of near future simulations (2015-2039) to present-day simulations (1979-2004).Bottom: Ration of the end of 21st century simulations (2075-2099) to the present-day simulations (1979-2004).

(cited from a brochure of the program)

Collaborations between research projects

Climate projection (funded by MEXT)Climate projection (funded by MEXT)

(2002-2006)

・ 100km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2100)・ 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMAKyosei

・ [Long-term] 280km Earth System Model by FRCGC (-2300)[N t ] 50k AO GCM b CCSR/NIES/FRCGC ( 2030)

Kakushin

( )・ [Near-term] 50km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2030)・ [Extreme event] 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA

Sousei・ Probabilistic climate scenarios・ Long-term scenarios

Task Group on Climate Scenario U ili i

・ Co-ordination of data exchange・ Share of know-how on climate

i tili ti

Impact assessment (funded by MOE)・ Spatial downscaling of climate scenarios (with RCM / SD) ・ Downscaling of socio economic scenarios (global)

Utilization scenario utilization

S-5

・ Downscaling of socio-economic scenarios (global)・ Sectoral impact assessment at global scale・ Risk communication with public citizen and business

S-10・ Risk management strategies

S-4・Analyses of sectoral impacts in Japan and Asia

S-8・Sectoral impacts and adaptation strategies in Japan・Adaptation policy of Local Governments

S-10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014AR5AR4









Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010)

East Asia and PacificE d C t l A iEurope and Central AsiaLatin America and CaribbeanMiddle East and North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Sahara Africa

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010)

NCAR（降水が増える気候シナリオ）

CSIRO（降水が減る気候シナリオ）

UNFCCC(200単位：10億米ドル／年 UNFCCC(2007)の推計値

単位：10億米ドル／年

インフラ

沿岸域

水供給・洪水防護

農林水産

人間健康人間健康

極端現象

総計

Toward the improvement of impact analyses in Asia-Enhancement of collaboration -

• Data

Enhancement of collaboration

– Climate scenarios, especially downscaled ones

– Socio‐economic scenarios both top‐down (downscaled)Socio economic scenarios both top down (downscaled) scenarios and bottom‐up scenarios

– Public archive system for storing and sharing the data?– Public archive system for storing and sharing the data?

• Methods

– Collaborative researches for developing and sharing tools and methods for impact analyses

• Adaptation experiences

Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones– Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones

– Accumulation of cases (good and bad practices)

Projected Climate Change Impacts in Asia and Japan...downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC...

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