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Project Estimation: One PM's Very Unscientific Approach

Ninety-ninety rule: The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time.

Tom Cargill, Bell Labs

Hofstadter's law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

• Know the time, effort, and resources required to accomplish a project

• Determine Cost and Pricing• Our clients like to know how long and how much

Why Estimate a Project?

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Why is it a challenge?

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Considerations

Estimation Tools

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Process

Outputs - Gantt Chart

Outputs - Level of Effort by RoleTask Duration Start Finish Dev 1 Dev 2 TL PM UX

Site Redesign 109d 9/12/16 2/17/17

Discovery Phase 10d 9/12/16 9/23/16 40 40 40

Review Requirements & Create User Stories 10d 9/12/16 9/23/16

Review Designs and Underlying Considerations 10d 9/12/16 9/23/16

Confirm Technical Architecture 10d 9/12/16 9/23/16

Refine Project Plan 3d 9/21/16 9/23/16

Implementation Phase 79d 9/26/16 1/20/17 632 632 316 126 126

Implement Design 25d 9/26/16 10/31/16 35 35

Setup Search Functionality 19d 10/18/16 11/11/16

Implement Configurable Elements 15d 11/11/16 12/5/16

Create Static Pages 11d 12/9/16 12/23/16

Integrate with Shopping Cart 17d 12/27/16 1/20/17

• It's easy to estimate what you know.• It's hard to estimate what you know you don't know. (known unknowns)

• It's very hard to estimate things that you don't know you don't know. (unknown unknowns)

In Summary