Project estimates. And fallacies
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alexey-krivitsky -
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Fallacies of project estimates. Done at dnepr.agilebasecamp.org
Transcript of Project estimates. And fallacies
1. «! " #$% &'(’&)' *+'(,-%.?»
!"#$"%&'#()*&+,%-.%(&
!"#$"%&'#()*&+,%-.%(&
/0%.123("%&45-3..#&
/0%.123("%&45-3..#&
657#"5&8-"%9&:.0;"&
657#"5&8-"%9&:.0;"&
Planning Fallacy
Planning Fallacy
<=>??@AB&C?>DEF@G>DEHI&
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking student syndrome
optimism bias
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50% 75% 99%
!"#$%
/0.#. 01*,'%.
E&RN@&S&GB&OQM>?ET&
50% 75% 99%
!"#$%
14% 19% 45%
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
student syndrome
procrastination
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
student syndrome
procrastination
Parkinson’s law
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
student syndrome
procrastination
Parkinson’s law
perfectionism
U+#5(3,#2&)";;&(39#&-"%V"W(&,;&0#9WW"-(9X)"Y&
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
student syndrome
procrastination
Parkinson’s law
perfectionism
delay*effort paradox
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
student syndrome
procrastination
Parkinson’s law
perfectionism
delay*effort paradox
delay accumulation
J*&Z@?OF>NN&
2.0-+341 ).4.*,1".56&7.
8.))-- "+-%7
9."-+:-)17 6-+7-6&7.
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
student syndrome
procrastination
Parkinson’s law
perfectionism
delay*effort paradox
delay accumulation
Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking
optimism bias
student syndrome
procrastination
Parkinson’s law
perfectionism
delay*effort paradox
delay accumulation
time
4x
3x
2x 1.5x
2. «; #6' 19 <6'='?»
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy
3. What to do in Kathmandu?
[\[&]^_`a&
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
