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Progress Monitoring Decision Making “…set goals that reflect meaningful growth and the power and confidence we have in our instruction” (Shinn, 16). Setting Reading Goals Using Progress Monitoring “Writing goals is not just a statement about what we expect the student to accomplish. It also is a statement about the power or impact of our instructional programs. If we write goals that are easily accomplished we are institutionalizing low expectations for students and indirectly suggesting the instructional programs we provide are not very powerful. A body of evidence strongly suggests a relation between how ambitious our goals are and student achievements. If we error, we should be over-ambitious rather than un-ambitious” (Shinn, 16). Multiple studies reveal that student achievement increases only when teachers systematically respond to data on student performance. Research has demonstrated that when teachers set ambitious goals for their students, student growth is positively impacted. In addition, when teachers monitor student performance and change instructional programs when students are not making expected progress, students achieve at a higher rate (Deno, Lembke, and Anderson). Progress monitoring is based on the assumption that students with significant educational needs should receive targeted and intense instruction that produces a learning rate faster than their peers (Shinn). When determining weekly improvement rates for students, choose reasonable or ambitious rates of growth. (See charts in Appendix – page 9) Setting Goals Decisions about writing individualized student goals must be based on:

the students’ current performance, time frame for the goal, future performance level, and a standard for successful performance.

To use this information to determine growth expectations, you need to (1) know the current performance level where the student is successful referred to as the Survey Level Assessment by AIMSweb, (2) know the number of weeks for the goal period, (3) determine a future performance level, and (4) determine a standard for success. Survey Level Assessment (SLA) is an assessment process where students are tested beginning with their current grade level until a level at which the student is successful based on grade norms is identified. Student performance one grade level below average norms would be considered “at risk” and two or more grade levels below would be considered a “severe discrepancy”. For more information see pages 17-32 in the AIMSweb downloads called “Progress Monitoring Strategies for Writing Individualized Goals”. Students with severe performance discrepancies may have AIMSweb goals that do not match their grade placement. The severity of the performance discrepancy and the intensity of the

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instructional program and interventions should be considered when determining student goals. The team should determine if the student’s base line assessment indicates a moderate performance discrepancy where the goal material could be at the student’s current grade level or if the discrepancy is so significant that lower grade passages should be considered for the goal material. The goal criterion for success can be based on school, district or national benchmark norms, using Words Read Correctly (WRC) targets linked to success on state assessments, or using normative growth rates. The following is an example of a team that decided to set a goal using WRC norms.

Words Read Correctly

50-75%ile Fall 2007-08 Aggregate National Norms (AIMSweb) Grade Level Fall Norms Spring Norms

Grade 1 11-27 WRC 59-88 WRC Grade 2 59-84 WRC 100-127 WRC Grade 3 82-110 WRC 118-146 WRC Grade 4 103-128 WRC 131-161 WRC

A 4th grade student reads 90 WRC at the 2nd grade level and 35 WRC at the 3rd grade level; the student’s current level of successful performance is 2nd grade. The 4th grade student at this level of performance might be expected to read 118 WRC at the 3rd grade level by the end of 4th grade. The team might also use a formula based on normative growth rates to determine a performance goal.

Weekly Improvement Rates (Deno, Lembke, and Anderson) Grade Level of

Reading Passage Modest

Growth Rate Reasonable

Growth Rate Ambitious

Growth Rate 1-2 1.0 1.5 2.0 3-6 .5 1.0 1.5

The following is the formula for determining a standard of success based on growth rates: The criterion for student success = Score on SLA + (Grade Growth Rate times # of weeks) (Shinn, 40). In the example above, with the team deciding to use reading materials at the 3rd grade level and an ambitious growth rate, the formula would be: 35 + (1.5 X 36) = 89 WRC by year end.

Works Cited

Deno, Stanley, Lembke, Erica, and Anderson Reschly Amy. Progress Monitoring Study Group Content Module. Shinn, Mark R. Ph.D. (2002). AIMSweb Training Workbook: Progress Monitoring Strategies for Writing Individualized Goals in General Curriculum and More Frequent Formative Evaluation. Eden Praire, MN: Edformation, Inc.

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Goal Setting Practice I. The following examples use normative growth rates to determine goals.

Words Read Correctly 50-75% ile Norms (AIMSweb)

2007-08 Multi-Year Aggregate National Norms

Grade Level Fall Norms Spring Norms Grade 1 11 - 27 WRC 59 - 88 WRC Grade 2 59 - 84 WRC 100 - 127 WRC Grade 3 82 - 110 WRC 118 - 146 WRC Grade 4 103 - 128 WRC 131 - 161 WRC Grade 5 115 - 147 WRC 147 - 176 WRC Grade 6 134 - 161 WRC 159 - 186 WRC Grade 7 136 - 163 WRC 157 - 185 WRC Grade 8 142 - 165 WRC 158 - 182 WRC

Weekly Improvement Rates (Deno, Lembke, and Anderson)

Grade Level of

Reading Passage Modest

Growth Rate Reasonable

Growth Rate Ambitious

Growth Rate 1-2 1.0 1.5 2.0 3-6 .5 1.0 1.5

1. Reading Survey-Level Assessment for Jordan, a Third-Grader

Grade Reading

Assessment Passages

Passage 1 (WRC/E)

Passage 2 (WRC/E)

Passage 3 (WRC/E)

Median (WRC/E)

Fall Performance

Level

3 33/4 38/5 50/7 38/5 At Risk Reader

2 60/5 57/3 43/7 59/3 Average Reader

Goal: In 36 weeks (by the end of the school year) Jordan will read 92 words correctly with less than 3 errors from Grade 3 Standard Progress Monitor Reading Assessment Passages. Criterion for Success = Score on SLA (38) + Ambitious Grade Growth Rate (1.5) times # of weeks (36) or 38 + (1.5 X 36) = 92 WRC from Grade 3 passages If the goal is set later in the year, adjust the formula to the correct number of weeks to determine the performance goal. For example, if there are 21 weeks of school left in the school year the Criterion for Success would be as follows: 38 + (1.5 X 21) = 70 WRC from Grade 3 passages.

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2. Reading Survey-Level Assessment for Jonathan, a Sixth-Grader

Grade Reading

Assessment Passages

Passage 1 (WRC/E)

Passage 2 (WRC/E)

Passage 3 (WRC/E)

Median (WRC/E)

Fall Performance

Level

6 11/12 18/8 20/3 18/8 Severe Reading Problem

5 30/5 27/6 34/6 30/5 Severe Reading Problem

4 19/6 25/3 25/3 25/3 Severe Reading Problem

3 38/5 39/2 43/1 39/2 At Risk Reader

2 64/2 61/0 84/1 64/2 Average Reader

Goal: In 36 weeks (1 year), Jonathan will read 79 words correctly with less than 3 errors from Grade 4 Standard Progress Monitor Reading Assessment Passages. (The IEP Team made the decision based on the SLA data that using 4th grade Reading Assessment Passages would be reflect an ambitious reading program and goal.) Criterion for Success = Score on SLA (25) + Ambitious Grade Growth Rate (1.5) times # of weeks (36),or 25 + (1.5 X 36) = 79 WRC from Grade 4 passages. II. The following example uses AIMSweb Norm data to determine goals The IEP team may choose to use the AIMSweb Norms Data rather than Reasonable/Ambitious Grade Growth Rates to aid in determining an appropriate goal for a student. Using the example of Jonathan above, the IEP team may decide that with special education, by the time of his annual IEP review, Jonathan would be reading as well as a typical beginning-of-the-year fourth grader in the school district. Therefore, the IEP team would choose Grade 4 passages as Jonathan’s future performance level. The standard for success would be defined as the number of WRC that a typical beginning-of-the year fourth grader would read on Grade 4 passages. (See National Norms Chart on page 3 or in the Appendix on page 8) Thus Jonathan’s reading goal would be set at 103 WRC, which is the Fall 50%ile Reading WRC score for Grade 4 students in the nation. Goal: In 36 weeks (1 year) Jonathan will read 103 words correctly with less than 3 errors from Grade 4 Standard Progress Monitor Reading Assessment Passages.

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III. The following example uses achievement on state-wide assessments as a basis for decision making. 3. Reading Survey-Level Assessment for Devon, a Third-Grader

Grade Reading

Assessment Passages

Passage 1 (WRC/E)

Passage 2 (WRC/E)

Passage 3 (WRC/E)

Median (WRC/E)

Fall Performance Level

3 30/10 28/12 26/10 28/12 Severe Performance Discrepancy

2 39/8 43/9 45/10 43/9 At Risk Reader (High Error Rate)

1 56/8 48/8 53/10 53/10 Above Average Reader (But High Error Rate)

Probability of Proficiency on Grade 3 MCAs

August 2007 St. Croix River Education District (SCRED) GOM Norms Spring Reading CBM Data

Grade Level R-CBM WRC Probability of Proficiency on

Grade 3 Reading MCA Grade 1 52 WRC .80 Grade 2 90 WRC .80 Grade 3 109 WRC .80

The IEP team wants Devon to have an 80% probability of reading well enough to pass the Grade 3 MCA State Reading Test. According to the 2007 probability data from SCRED, he will need to read at least 90 WRC on the Grade 2 Reading CBMs to have 80% probability of passing the Grade 3 State Reading Test. Goal: In 36 weeks (1 year), Devon will read 90 words correctly with less than 5 errors from Grade 2 Standard Progress Monitor Reading Assessment Passages.

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IV. Determine fall performance level, goal criterion and goal for the following examples.

4. Reading Survey-Level Assessment for Sandy, a Third-Grader

Grade Reading Assessment

Passages Median (WRC/E) Fall Performance Level

(Based on Fall National Norms) 3 10/8

2 19/9

1 25/5

Write a goal for Sandy, assuming 36 weeks until her annual review. Tell what goal criterion method you used and write a justification for your goal. In ___ weeks (1 year), Sandy will read ___ words correctly from Grade ___ Standard Progress Monitor Reading Assessment Passages. Write your Goal Criterion Method and rationale for your goal here. 5. Reading Survey-Level Assessment for Michael, a Fourth-Grader

Grade Reading Assessment Passages

Median (WRC/E) Fall Performance Level (Based on Fall National Norms)

4 34/12

3 48/8

2 71/3

Write a goal for Michael, assuming 36 weeks until his annual review. Tell what goal criterion method you used and write a justification for your goal. In ___ weeks (1 year), Michael will read ___ words correctly from Grade ___ Standard Progress Monitor Reading Assessment Passages. Write your Goal Criterion Method and rationale for your goal here.

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6. Reading Survey-Level Assessment for Amber, a Tenth-Grader

Grade Reading Assessment Passages

Median (WRC/E) Fall Performance Level (Based on Fall National Norms)

8 Not Assessed

7 80/11

6 106/8

5 120/6

Write a goal for Amber, assuming 36 weeks until her annual review. Tell what criterion method you used and write a justification for your goal. In ___ weeks (1 year), Amber will read ___ words correctly from Grade ___ Standard Progress Monitor Reading Assessment Passages. Write your Goal Criterion Method and rationale for your goal here. V. What do I do when a student is above, below, or close to their goal? Research on progress monitoring reveals that student achievement increases only when teachers systematically respond to the data on student performance (Deno). A set of decision rules for implementing interventions that have been proven successful is described below. After recording six weeks of data on the students’ graphs, review the graphs using the following rules: 1. If three consecutive data points are below the goal line, make an instructional change in the student’s program. This intervention should be recorded on the “AIMSweb Progress Monitoring Intervention Form” (available on-line at the District’s home page under Departments/Student Services/Forms) and submitted to the progress monitoring paraprofessional in your building so that the intervention will be recorded on the student’s graph. (See Appendix – Chart 6) 2. If six consecutive data points are above the goal line, set a higher goal or increase the probe grade level and set a new goal. 3. If the consecutive data points are closely following the goal line, continue the student’s instructional program and monitoring progress.

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APPENDIX

Chart 1 Words Read Correctly Norms (Deno, Lembke, and Anderson)

Grade1 60 WRC Grade 2 90 WRC Grade 3 115 WRC

Chart 2 Words Read Correctly 50-75% ile Norms (AIMSweb)

2007-2008 Multi-Year Aggregate National Norms

Grade Level Fall Norms Spring Norms Grade 1 11 - 27 WRC 59 - 88 WRC Grade 2 59 - 84 WRC 100 - 127 WRC Grade 3 82 - 110 WRC 118 - 146 WRC Grade 4 103 - 128 WRC 131 - 161 WRC Grade 5 115 - 147 WRC 147 - 176 WRC Grade 6 134 - 161 WRC 159 - 186 WRC Grade 7 136 - 163 WRC 157 - 185 WRC Grade 8 142 - 165 WRC 158 - 182 WRC Grade 9 135 - 160 WRC 149 - 174 WRC Grade 10 131 - 157 WRC 143 - 167 WRC Grade 11 134 - 158 WRC 138 - 161 WRC Grade 12 138 - 162 WRC 138 - 166 WRC

Chart 3 Words Read Correctly 50-75% ile Norms (AIMSweb)

2007-2008 St. Cloud School District Norms

Grade Level Fall Norms Spring Norms Grade 1 9 - 20 WRC 54 - 87 WRC Grade 2 50 - 74 WRC 95 - 122 WRC Grade 3 63 - 95 WRC 109 - 137 WRC

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Chart 4

Responses Correct on MAZE Comprehension (AIMSweb) 2007-2008 St. Cloud School District 50-75% ile Norms

Grade Level Fall Norms Spring Norms

Grade 3 9 - 14 RC 11 - 16 RC Grade 4 12 - 16 RC 18 - 25 RC Grade 5 17 - 23 RC 24 - 32 RC Grade 6 24 – 31 RC 29 – 35 RC

The following charts from two different sources (Deno and Schinn) are provided to help determine realistic goals for students based on normative growth rates. In order for students to catch up, our instructional programs must produce learning at a faster rate than would be expected without the additional instructional interventions.

Chart 5 Weekly Improvement Rates (Deno, Lembke, and Anderson)

Grade Level Passage Modest

Growth Rate Reasonable

Growth Rate Ambitious

Growth Rate 1-2 1.0 1.5 2.0 3-6 .5 1.0 1.5

Chart 6 Weekly Improvement Rates (Shinn)

Grade Level Passages Realistic Goals Ambitious Goals

6-8 .3 WRC per week .65 WRC per week 5 .5 WRC per week .8 WRC per week 4 .85 WRC per week 1.1 WRC per week 3 1.0 WRC per week 1.5 WRC per week 2 1.5 WRC per week 2.0 WRC per week 1 2.0 WRC per week 3.0 WRC per week

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