Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)

Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)

Negotiations and Risk management

Sentient Science Funded $25M to by Worlds Largest Operator

Uniquely built with operators – Trusted 3rd Party


New Prognostic Solution to Predict Failures• Prognostics vs. Diagnostics • Data Model versus Material Science Model - Compatible• Calculates Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Recommends

Options to Extend Life. • Simulates “what if” scenarios to optimize performance. • Enables efficient Asset Management.• Reduces the Time and Cost of Physical Design Testing


DigtialClone Live Technical Approach


What Process does DigitalClone Replace?

• Create a multi-physics model to test the life and performance of a specific component under sensitivity studies

• Build a digital model and then run simulations• Manage by exception by only focusing on changes to predictions• Software

VS.

Prognostics Diagnostics

NO CAPEX / $31,000 in development costs

$3.5M CAPEX / $323,000in development costs


Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics

What is the Business Problem to Solve?

What Would Could You Do With the Extra Time?

Diagnostics


1. Ranking Fleet-wide GBX assets worst to best (“what’s not on your watch list?”)

2. List of all GBX candidates for Up-tower component replacement – critical component(s) list, new lifing predictions post replacement and ROI

3. List of all GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life, calculated power levels and ROI

4. Per asset lifing predictions for any uprated GBX5. Per Asset GBX “as-is” BOM and “to-be” simulated BOM stored in

Maximo/SAP6. 5 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate spend

per site

Business Benefit – More Time


Sentient Science Family


Worlds Most Tested Products

Products with the Lowest Cost of Operation


Are you an Owner…

…with units coming out of warranty or FSA and looking to decide what to do next?

Or are you an OEM or an Owner…

…evaluating an Install Base FSA extension?


Same Underlying Questions Need Answering…

How do I quantify my Risk?

And then how do I manage Risk?

Prognostics - Puts you in the drivers seat in quantifying & managing risk

Common Contractual Tools for Managing WTG Unplanned Risks


Unplanned Maint. Cost (labor, material, crane)

Unavailability Costs

>30 day Business Interruption Costs

Pricing term

In & Out [Full]

WarrantyFull coverage, capped at turbine price

Yes, calculated at site level, downside limited

No2-5yrs Capitalized in turbine original priceParts & Labor Parts + Labor, capped at % of

turbine price Not typical

Parts Only Parts only, capped at % of turbine price No

Property & Plant

Insurance

Per event deductible (~$100-250k). Limits coverage on number of capital replacement events

No, unless deemed business interruption

Yes1-2 year fixed price

WAR

RAN

TY

POST

W

ARRA

NT

Y

FSA [LTCSA]Full Coverage - Limited to some multiple of service agreement price.

Yes, calculated at site level, often limited downside

No 5-15yr fixed price

The Primary Gaps FSAs Fill

The risk view depends where you are measuring on the bathtub curve…

Projects “Stress” and “Wear” portion of risk curve

Back to: How Do I Quantify my Future Risk?


Use Physics based modeling of wear• Gearbox • Main Bearing

Use Past History• Weibulls – failures

over time

Use Current Condition• Borescope• CMS• Visual inspection

Looking in the Rearview Mirror…


5%: Blades & Pitch Bearings

60%: Drive-Train

Est. for avg. 1.5MW turbine platform

20% Pitch & Converter Subsystems

15% - All Other Subsystems

Unplanned maintenance costs are seen as 40-60% of total maintenance costs

100% of unplanned cost

+

But does this represent your turbine’s future performance?

Looking Ahead: Prognostics Approaches


Factors that impact life

Standard Bearing Lifing

(ISO281)

Standard Gear Lifing

(AGMA2001 and ISO6336)

DigitalClone Bearing & Gear

Lifing

Varying Load

Varying Speed

Lubricant Properties

Surface Finish

Component Microgeometry

Material Quality

DigitalClone® Nucleation & Propagation



Using Prognostics before your FSA / Warranty ends…you were unable to have a solid grasp of failure events and cost

Compare $$/yr cost to FSA Extension Quotes

5yrs 10yrs 15yrs 20yrs

Existing FSA Payments

$40k

$50k

$60k

$20k

FSA Ends

Pric

e/yr

FSA Extension Offer

Difference between Gbx + MB cost and total FSA Cost is large…are you getting a

good deal??

UnR

elia

bilit

y

5yrs 10yrs 15yrs 20yrs

5%

10%

15%

20%FSA End Date25%

Quantify major component (Gbx, Main Bearing) damage risk by Site / Asset

DigitalClone Gearbox

Fatigue damage over time

DigitalClone Main Bearing

Fatigue damage over time

Actual Gbx + MB Failure Cost

Projected Fatigue related Gbx + MB Failures



Using Prognostics for evaluating an Install Base FSA…you have historical data, but how does that translate to future risk?

Compare your Site or Asset failure history to expected fatigue risk

20202014

10.0%

49.8%

Life

Probability Plot of Gearbox failures over time

DigitalClone model

Similar total failure rate at year 20…

Site Weibull

Different story of how quickly the

failures arise

Gearbox Probability of Failure over time for Site X


Using Prognostics for evaluating an Install Base FSA

Quantify component supplier specific risks

Bearing Supplier

Hardness (Ra) Range 0 to 4500 um

depth

Microstructure Inclusions

Microstructure Quality

Supplier A 60–58 HRC

Supplier B

60-53 HRC (Design

requirement >58 HRC)

Digi

talC

lone

® S

imul

atio

n

HSS Bearing DigitalClone Comparison

BEST BEST BEST

Stress / Life Curve

Cycles to Damage (L66)

Max

Con

tact

Pre

ssur

e (M

Pa)

Stress – Life Curve

Supplier A

Supplier B

Better LifeBett

er S

tres

s Pe

rfor

man

ce

Outer Race

Inner Race

BEST

Oute

r Rac

e

Inner Race


Using prognostics to understand Risk vs Premium $…

NO

Can you predict this?

YES

Can you predict this?


As an Owner you want to use prognostics…

on units coming out of warranty or FSA to:• Quantify major component risk• Compare risk vs. FSA premium• Ensure FSA contract coverage is adequate

As an OEM or Owner you want to use prognostics…

on units up for possible Install Base FSA to: • Compare historic vs. future major

component risk• Quantify component supplier risk• Ensure FSA contract coverage is adequate

Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)

Engineering

Transcript of Prognostics for Warranty and Full Services Agreements (FSA)