DISRUPTIVE METHODS

FOR

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGEWWW.CEMSENGEZER.COM

BLACK BOX ANALYTICS

AGENDA

Mission description

Proven cases with the method

MISSION DESCRIPTION

proven prediction solutions for competitve advantages:

national, international leagues

for better decisions: alerting unseen risks/opportunities with known methods

prescriptive solutions:

recipes for better results with unconventional methodologies

revision to current business models

view support to working models

FOCUS:

reliable prediction

reliable recipes

reliable optimization

UNIQUE SOLUTIONS TO BUSINESS

NATIONAL TEAM CASE

best time for brands to invest: low volatility uptrend in long term

bargain investment: high ROI

ARSENAL CASE (EUL, ECL)

still “under 100”: warning for

coming risks&opportunities with

different natures than past

“under 100” region (2012) => lower

performance, for next years (see

falling red curve)

ARSENAL CASE (EPL)

falling “under 100” alerting high

risk : need of different recipes to

recover in long term

“underestimated” EPL teams have

“-1 value” => better succes in next

years

TEST WITH PAST RESULTS

(Seasonal Prediction : %78)

Similar results for lower leagues

EPL

final ranking 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006

Arsenal 5 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4

Bournemouth 9 16

Brighton&HA

Burnley 16 19 18

C. Pa lace 14 15 10 11

Chelsea 1 10 1 3 3 6 2 1 3 2 2 1

Everton 7 11 11 5 6 7 7 8 5 5 7 11

Huddersfield T.

Leicester Ci ty 12 1 4

Liverpool 4 8 6 2 7 8 6 7 2 4 3 3

M. Ci ty 3 4 2 1 2 1 3 5 10 9 14 15

M. United 6 5 4 7 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2

New Castle U. 18 15 10 16 5 12 18 12 13 7

Southampton 8 6 7 8 14

Stoke Ci ty 13 9 9 9 13 14 13 11 12

Swansea 15 12 8 12 9 11

Tottenham 2 3 5 6 5 4 5 4 8 11 5 5

Watford 17 13

WBA 10 14 13 17 8 10 11

WHU 11 7 12 13 10

Seasonal prediction average: 78%

SPORTIVE ASSETS (TEAM/PLAYER):

TREND PREDICTION -PAST TEST

RESULTS-

Predicted matchs # >5,15< >15,40< >40,70< 70+

Trend reliability (main trend) %60 %70 %75 %85

League (trend) %50 %70 %70 %85

Non League(trend) %50 %70 %70 %85

weekday(trend) %50 %65 %70 %85

weekend (trend) %50 %65 %70 %85

# of wins (trend) %50 %60 %65 %70

# of non wins(trend) %55 %60 %65 %70

# of goal scored(trend) %55 %60 %65 %70

# of goal conceded (trend) %55 %60 %60 %70

goal margin(trend) %55 %55 %65 %70

PREDICITON SUCCESS RATIO: AVERAGE FOR WHOLE LEAGUES

Personal

Web site: www.cemsengezer.com

New method-model support for competitive advantage

: www.sportsmedicineturkey.com/en/about-us/our-consultants

Instructor on “Sports Math” for new method development

: http://sem.medipol.edu.tr/Egitim/Icerik/104

Financial markets commentator:

www.paraborsa.net