Profiles and Trends of the Appalachian Highlands Dr. Jon ... · 9/10/2019 · Profiles and Trends...
Transcript of Profiles and Trends of the Appalachian Highlands Dr. Jon ... · 9/10/2019 · Profiles and Trends...
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Profiles and Trends of the Appalachian HighlandsDr. Jon Smith and Dr. Brian Noland
East Tennessee State UniversitySeptember 10, 2019
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• Foundational constructs of economic development
• Data profile of the region
• The importance of data, research, and strategic planning
Presentation Overview
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• In the Knowledge Economy, education, technology, and learning are the keys to sustainable economic growth, and the foundation of such growth is higher education.
• In order to remain competitive, states must work to develop policies that incorporate human, intellectual, and financial capital.
• Predicated on human capital theory
Public and private benefits from human capital investments.
Based on the notion that education increases the human capital stock of individuals, improves their productivity, leads to increases in economic productivity, and contributes to the general betterment of society. (Denison 1983; Walberg and Zhang 1998).
The advancement of educational attainment has become an indispensable variable in policy efforts to make improvements of society as a whole.
The Knowledge Economy and Human Capital Theory
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AK
AR
DE
GA
HIIL
IN IAKS
LAME
MDMA
MTNE
NV NJ
NY
NC ND
OHOK
ORPARI
SCSD
VT
VA
WA
US
AL
CA
CO
CT
FL
IDKY
MIMN
MS
MONH
NMTN
TX
UTWV
WI
WY
$15,000
$22,000
$29,000
$36,000
$43,000
$50,000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
AZ
Personal Income
Per Capita
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
1980
Correlation = 0.64
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
Educational Attainment and Income
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
Educational Attainment and Income 1990
AK
AR
DE
GA
HI
IL
IN IAKS
LA
ME
MD MA
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA RI
SC SD
VT
VAWA
US
AL
CA
CO
CT
FL
IDKY
MI
MN
MS
MO
NH
NM
TNTX
UTWV
WIWY
$15,000
$22,000
$29,000
$36,000
$43,000
$50,000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
AZ
1990
Personal Income
Per Capita
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
Correlation = 0.76
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
Educational Attainment and Income 2000
AK
AR
DE
GA HI
IL
INIA
KS
LA
ME
MD
MA
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA RI
SC
SD
VT
VAWA
US
AL
CA
CO
CT
FL
IDKY
MI
MN
MS
MO
NH
NM
TN
TX
UT
WV
WIWY
$15,000
$22,000
$29,000
$36,000
$43,000
$50,000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
AZ
2000
Personal Income
Per Capita
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
Correlation = 0.80
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
Educational Attainment and Income 2015
AK
AZ
AR
DE
GA
HI
IL
IN IAKS
LA
ME
MD
MA
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NC NDOH
OK
OR
PA RI
SC
SD VT
VA
WAUS
AL
CACO
CT
FL
IDKY
MI
MN
MS
MO
NH
NM
TNTX
UTWV
WI
WY
$15,000
$22,000
$29,000
$36,000
$43,000
$50,000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2015
Personal Income
Per Capita
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
Correlation = 0.83
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SOURCE: SREB Factbook (2019)
Annual Salaries of Adults by Educational Level(25 or older 2017)
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Unemployment Rate by Education Level
1.5%
1.5%
2.2%
2.5%
3.4%
4.0%
4.6%
6.5%
3.6%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Doctoral degree
Professional degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate degree
Some college, no degree
High school diploma, no college
Less than a high school diploma
Total
2017 Unemployment rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
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SOURCE: SREB Factbook (2019)
Projected Increases in Employment by Education Required (2016 to 2026)
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2017 % Change
United States 20.3% 23.0% 24.4% 27.2% 32.0% 11.7%SREB States 18.6% 19.9% 22.4% 23.8% 29.6% 11.0%
Alabama 15.7% 17.3% 19.0% 21.4% 25.5% 9.8%Arkansas 13.3% 14.2% 16.7% 18.9% 23.4% 10.1%Delaware 21.4% 22.9% 25.0% 27.6% 31.5% 10.1%Florida 18.3% 22.1% 22.3% 25.8% 29.7% 11.4%Georgia 19.6% 22.7% 24.3% 27.1% 30.9% 11.3%Kentucky 13.6% 19.3% 17.1% 19.3% 24.0% 10.4%Louisiana 16.1% 20.1% 18.7% 20.6% 23.8% 7.7%Maryland 26.5% 26.4% 31.4% 34.5% 39.7% 13.2%Mississippi 14.7% 17.6% 16.9% 18.7% 21.9% 7.2%North Carolina 17.4% 20.6% 22.5% 25.1% 31.3% 13.9%Oklahoma 17.8% 19.1% 20.3% 22.4% 25.5% 7.7%South Carolina 16.6% 18.2% 20.4% 23.0% 28.0% 11.4%Tennessee 16.0% 17.8% 19.6% 21.8% 27.3% 11.3%Texas 20.3% 22.0% 23.2% 25.1% 29.6% 9.3%Virginia 24.5% 26.0% 29.5% 33.2% 38.7% 14.2%West Virginia 12.3% 12.7% 14.8% 16.9% 20.2% 7.9%
Percentage of Population 25 or Older with a Bachelor's Degree (Full Census and American Community Survey)
Educational Attainment - SREB States
Sheet1
Percentage of Population 25 or Older with a
Bachelor's Degree (Full Census and American Community Survey)
194019501960197019801990199519992000200220052017% Change
United States4.6%6.0%7.7%10.7%16.2%20.3%23.0%25.2%24.4%24.4%27.2%32.0%11.7%
SREB States3.8%5.1%6.9%9.7%14.9%18.6%19.9%21.7%22.4%22.8%23.8%29.6%11.0%
Alabama2.9%3.7%5.7%7.8%12.2%15.7%17.3%21.8%19.0%20.6%21.4%25.5%9.8%
Arkansas2.3%3.2%4.8%6.7%10.8%13.3%14.2%17.3%16.7%19.7%18.9%23.4%10.1%
Delaware5.3%7.5%10.0%NANA21.4%22.9%24.0%25.0%25.1%27.6%31.5%10.1%
Florida5.0%6.5%7.8%10.3%14.9%18.3%22.1%21.6%22.3%24.1%25.8%29.7%11.4%
Georgia3.3%4.6%6.2%9.2%14.6%19.6%22.7%21.5%24.3%24.4%27.1%30.9%11.3%
Kentucky3.0%3.9%4.9%7.2%11.1%13.6%19.3%19.8%17.1%18.8%19.3%24.0%10.4%
Louisiana3.5%4.8%6.7%9.0%14.5%16.1%20.1%20.7%18.7%20.4%20.6%23.8%7.7%
Maryland4.9%7.2%9.3%13.9%20.4%26.5%26.4%34.7%31.4%33.1%34.5%39.7%13.2%
Mississippi3.1%3.9%5.6%8.1%12.3%14.7%17.6%19.2%16.9%17.7%18.7%21.9%7.2%
North Carolina4.1%5.1%6.3%8.5%13.2%17.4%20.6%23.9%22.5%23.4%25.1%31.3%13.9%
Oklahoma4.8%6.3%7.9%10.0%15.1%17.8%19.1%23.7%20.3%20.7%22.4%25.5%7.7%
South Carolina4.7%5.5%6.9%9.0%13.4%16.6%18.2%20.9%20.4%22.7%23.0%28.0%11.4%
Tennessee3.1%4.1%5.5%7.9%12.6%16.0%17.8%17.7%19.6%21.0%21.8%27.3%11.3%
Texas4.4%6.2%8.0%10.9%16.9%20.3%22.0%24.4%23.2%24.5%25.1%29.6%9.3%
Virginia4.5%6.5%8.4%12.3%19.1%24.5%26.0%31.6%29.5%31.7%33.2%38.7%14.2%
West Virginia3.4%4.4%5.2%6.8%10.4%12.3%12.7%17.9%14.8%16.1%16.9%20.2%7.9%
Sheet2
Sheet3
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Percent of Adult Population with a High School Degree
Red = Most critical 300 counties
Green = Least critical 300 counties
Average for TN: 87.8%
Average for US: 88.0%
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Percent of Working Age Adult Population with an Associate Degree or Higher
Red = Most critical 300 counties
Green = Least critical 300 counties
Average for TN: 35.9%
Average for US: 41.7%
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Percent of Adult Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Red = Most critical 300 counties
Green = Least critical 300 counties
Average for TN: 27.3%
Average for US: 32.0%
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Median Household Income
Red = Most critical 300 counties
Green = Least critical 300 counties
Average for TN: $55,240
Average for US: $61,372
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State Public Health Rankings
Source: United Health Foundation.
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Opioids Prescribed Per Capita (2015)
Source: Tennessee Department of Mental Health & Substance Abuse Services
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Source: Tennessee Department of Mental Health & Substance Abuse Services
The Story of Addiction in Tennessee
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Selected Data – TN Regional Profile
County Adult SmokingAdult
Obesity%
Uninsurred% Children in Poverty
Median Household
Income
Adults with HS +
Adults w/ BA +
Population Projections (2012-26)
State Avg - Tennessee 22 33 11 21 $51,319 88.7 27.6 8.2Carter 24 36 11 29 $39,725 86.1 16.5 -3.3Greene 22 36 11 25 $40,145 86.6 15.7 2.8Hancock 26 31 12 45 $29,689 80.6 8.7 -4.9Hawkins 21 33 11 26 $41,397 86 12.9 -0.7Johnson 24 31 12 33 $36,331 80.6 11.7 -0.5Sullivan 22 33 10 24 $54,224 88.7 23.4 -0.7Unicoi 22 34 13 25 $41,188 87.8 14.5 0.4Washington 21 30 10 19 $43,194 91.8 34.3 8
For almost every county across the region, performance across key indicators yields outcomes
below state and national averages.
Sheet1
CountyAdult SmokingAdult Obesity% Uninsurred% Children in PovertyMedian Household IncomeAdults with HS +Adults w/ BA +Rate of Population Growth (2012-16)Population Projections (2012-26)
State Avg - Tennessee22331121$51,31988.727.63.18.2
Carter24361129$39,72586.116.5-1.4-3.3
Greene22361125$40,14586.615.7-0.12.8
Hancock26311245$29,68980.68.7-1.5-4.9
Hawkins21331126$41,3978612.90-0.7
Johnson24311233$36,33180.611.7-2-0.5
Sullivan22331024$54,22488.723.40.1-0.7
Unicoi22341325$41,18887.814.5-2.80.4
Washington21301019$43,19491.834.328
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Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
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0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
MSA REAL GDP
Johnson City Kingsport Asheville Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville
Real GDP Growth – MSA Comparisons
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
MSA REAL GDP
Johnson City Kingsport Asheville
Chattanooga Knoxville-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
US
Johnson City
Kingsport
Asheville
Chattanooga
Knoxville
Nashville
16.09%
4.01%
-6.29%
22.52%
11.48%
12.92%
41.17%
% in MSA Total Real GRP2010 to 2017
Real GDP Growth – MSA Comparisons
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
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-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
US
Johnson City
Kingsport
Asheville
Chattanooga
Knoxville
Nashville
18.08%
2.43%
-5.42%
14.25%
6.00%
7.98%
24.31%
% Change in MSA Real GDP Per Capita2010 to 2017
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
MSA REAL GDP PER CAPITA
Johnson City Kingsport Asheville
Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville
Real GDP Growth Per Capita – MSA Comparisons
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
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Civilian Employment Level
-
-100000
100000
300000
500000
700000
900000
1100000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Johnson City Kingsport Asheville
Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
US
Johnson City
Kingsport
Asheville
Chattanooga
Knoxville
Nashville
12.01%
2.04%0.43%
18.91%
10.81%
7.48%
26.44%
% Change in MSA Civilian Employment2010 to 2018
Civilian Employment – MSA Comparisons
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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Percent Change in County Employment2010 to 2018
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPS Data
For almost every county within the region, there was flat to declining job growth across industry sectors for the decade.
-
-100000
100000
300000
500000
700000
900000
1100000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Johnson City Kingsport Asheville
Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville -7.00%
-2.00%
3.00%
8.00%
13.00%
18.00%
US
John
son
City
King
spor
t
Ashe
ville
Chat
tano
oga
Knox
ville
Nas
hvill
e
5.32%
-4.10%-5.26%
11.69%
4.73%
1.67%
18.76%
% Change in MSA Civilian Labor Force2010 to 2018
Civilian Workforce – MSA Comparisons
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Unemployment Statistics
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Percent Change in County Labor Force2010 to 2018
Almost every county within the region experienced flat to declining labor force participation rates throughout this decade.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPS Data
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Net Migration by Age Signature – Tennessee
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Net Migration by Age Signature – Nashville MSA
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De
Net Migration by Age Signature –Johnson City MSA
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Migration by Age Signature: Kingsport-Bristol MSA
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Asheville MSA (4 Counties)
YearStarting
populationEnding
populationTotal
ChangePercent change
Natural increase Net migration
2000 - 2008 370,615 417,457 46,842 12.64% 2,016 44,8262008 - 2017 417,457 456,145 38,688 9.27% -1,554 40,776
Johnson City MSA (3 Counties)
YearStarting
populationEnding
populationTotal
ChangePercent change
Natural increase Net migration
2000 - 2008 181,944 196,242 14298 7.86% 242 14,0562008 - 2017 196,242 202,053 5811 2.96% -1,263 8,017
Kingsport MSA (5 Counties)
YearStarting
populationEnding
populationTotal
ChangePercent change
Natural increase Net migration
2000 - 2008 298,534 308,069 9,535 3.19% -1,979 11,5142008 - 2017 308,069 306,659 -1,410 -0.46% -6,258 5,204
Knoxville MSA (9 Counties)
YearStarting
populationEnding
populationTotal
ChangePercent change
Natural increase Net migration
2000 - 2008 679,999 753,517 73,518 10.81% 13,682 59,8362008 - 2017 753,517 804,626 51,109 6.78% 9,242 42,264
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37.0%
36.8%36.5%
36.3%36.1% 36.0%
35.9%
35.6% 35.7%
40.7%
39.7%39.4%
39.1%
39.1%39.0%
38.7%38.5%
38.2%
37.1%
36.2%
35.8%
35.3%
35.1%
34.8%34.7%
34.4% 34.3%
41.0%
40.4%
40.1%
39.8%
38.9%38.7%
38.5%
38.4%
38.3%
34.0%
35.0%
36.0%
37.0%
38.0%
39.0%
40.0%
41.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Asheville Johnson City Kingsport Knoxville
MSA Age Distribution (Ages 15 to 44)
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17.9%17.9%
18.2%
18.6%
18.9%
19.4%
19.9%
20.5%
20.8%
15.4%
15.7%15.9%
16.3%
16.7%
17.1%
17.6%
18.1%
18.4%
16.9%
17.3%
17.8%
18.2%
18.6%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.3%
14.0%
14.2%14.5%
14.8%
15.5%
15.9%
16.4%
16.9%
17.2%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
21.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Asheville Johnson City Kingsport Knoxville
MSA Age Distribution – 65 and Older
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Commercial Branch Bank and Savings Institutions Deposits
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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Tennessee
Asheville
Johnson City
Kingsport
Chattanooga
Knoxville
Nashville
42.08%
49.48%
39.26%
27.62%
46.57% 45.69%
77.35%
47.83%
19.79%
7.58%1.55%
27.49%
38.39%
87.39%
2001-2008 2008-2018
% Changes in Nominal Dollar Deposits of All FDIC-Insured Institutions
(Commercial Banks, Savings Institutions, Branches of Foreign Banks)
-
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
Tennessee
Asheville
Johnson City
Kingsport
Chattanooga
Knoxville
Nashville
16.87%
22.95%
14.55%
4.97%
20.56% 19.84%
45.88%
26.75%
2.71%-7.76% -12.93%
9.31%
18.66%
60.67%
2001 to 2008 2008 to 2018
Percent Changes in Real Dollar Deposits of All FDIC-Insured Institutions
(Commercial Banks, Savings Institutions, Branches of Foreign Banks)
-
Issues for Consideration• Strategic Planning:
What are the region’s short and long-term goals to address its demographic, economic, and educational issues?
Do the region’s policies, practices, and incentives align with these goals? Are the goals achievable and measurable?
Are institutions held accountable when they do not meet these goals? Are they provided incentives when they do meet these goals?
• State and Local Issues: What is the state and region’s economic forecast? Is the current regional ECD infrastructure able to present a consistent
advocacy voice to federal, state, and other constituencies? How effective is the region in realizing grant and special project
funding to support regional economic, education, and health objectives? Is the region coordinated or disjointed in its approach to industry
recruitment?
Slide Number 1Presentation OverviewSlide Number 3Educational Attainment and IncomeEducational Attainment and Income 1990Educational Attainment and Income 2000Educational Attainment and Income 2015Annual Salaries of Adults by Educational Level� (25 or older 2017) Slide Number 9Projected Increases in Employment by Education Required (2016 to 2026)Slide Number 11Percent of Adult Population with a �High School Degree Percent of Working Age Adult Population with an Associate Degree or Higher Percent of Adult Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Median Household Income Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Commercial Branch Bank and �Savings Institutions DepositsSlide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40