Professor Nigel Brandon Shell Chair Sustainable Development in Energy EPSRC Energy Senior Research...

Professor Nigel BrandonShell Chair Sustainable Development in EnergyEPSRC Energy Senior Research FellowExecutive Director Energy Futures LabGO science Focal Point in Energy with China

www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

Energy Drivers for Emissions

Introduction

• Energy Futures Lab

• Global Energy Drivers and Trends.

• Energy in the UK.

• Conclusions.

The Energy Futures Lab• Established in 2005 to promote and stimulate multi-disciplinary research in energy at Imperial College. The EFL integrates across science, engineering, policy and business in the energy sector.

• Imperial College has a research budget of £30M pa for energy research, one third from industry. We have around 370 energy projects and 600 research staff and students undertaking energy research.

Energy Technologies•Fuel cells and hydrogen

•Bioenergy

•Solar

•Carbon capture and storage

•Oil and gas

•Transmission and distribution

•Transport

•Nuclear fission and fusion

•Combustion science and engineering

Integrating Themes•Energy systems engineering

•Policy

•Environmental studies

•Sustainability analysis

•Economics

•Energy in society

City type 459 City scenario

Land use

Energy resource flow

Service networks

Human activities

City type 459 City scenario

Land useLand use

Energy resource flow

Service networks

Human activities

Su

sta

inab

ilit

yfa

cto

rs


Global Energy Drivers: 1 – Population Growth 2005

(million)2030

(million)

Canada 32 268 38 880

France 60 496 66 269

Germany 82 689 79 090

Italy 58 093 57 385

Japan 128 085 117 794

Russia 143 202 124 121

United Kingdom 59 668 65 895

United States 298 313 364 427

Brazil 186 405 233 884

China 1 315 844 1 438 394

India 1 103 371 1 489 653

Mexico 107 029 269 211

South Africa 47 432 52 958

World TotalWorld Total 6 464 7506 464 750 8 246 6658 246 665

World Population prospectsWorld Population prospects: the 2006 revision, UN Dept. Economics and Social Affairs

Global Energy Drivers: 2 – Energy Security

• Rising Oil Prices.

• Shift in power from energy consumers to energy producers.

• Link between energy, water and food.

• 400 million people in India have no access to electricity.

Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

UK Energy Trade and consumption

PROJECTED EUROPEAN GAS BALANCE

0

200

400

600

800

1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030

bill

ion

cu

m

Production Net imports

Source: IEA

Global Energy Drivers: 3 – UrbanisationP

opul

atio

n (b

illi

on)

Source: ARUP

Growth in Global Energy Demand

Source: RCEP (2000)Source: RCEP (2000)

Global Energy Impact: CO2 emissions

Source: DTI (2002).Source: DTI (2002). Energy: its impact on the environment and Energy: its impact on the environment and society.society.

Global Energy Impact: 2 – Pollution

Guangzhou, China, March 2008, ~15.00

In 2006, 283 out of 524 cities recorded acid rain:•198 cities at 25%•87 cities at 75%•6 cities at 100%

Acid rain: pH <5.6

Air Quality Report for 2006Air Quality Report for 2006, Ministry of Environmental Protection of P. R. China, http://www.sepa.gov.cn/

Acid Rain in China

More than 80 percent of Chinese cities in a recent World Bank survey had sulfur dioxide or nitrogen dioxide emissions above the World Health Organization's threshold.

Energy consumption in China is accelerating The increase in China’s energy demand from 2002-05 equates to Japan’s annual energy use.105 GW of (mostly) coal fired power plant were built in 2006 (total UK capacity ~80GW).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1978

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

En

erg

y co

nsu

mp

atio

n (

GT

SC

E)

China Statistical Yearbook 2007China Statistical Yearbook 2007, National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro, nuclear wind, biomass

Incremental increase in energy demand and energy related CO2 emissions 2000-2006.

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

China’s energy consumption per capita is low


toe

per

cap

ita

Human development and energy use

A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID-140773 (2000).

Car ownership in China was 24 cars for every 1000 citizens in 2006, and will increase to 40 cars for every 1000 citizens by 2010. By contrast, the US has 765 vehicles per 1000 (2002 data), while Europe has an average of about 300 vehicles per 1000.

Source: Green Car CongressGreen Car Congress, http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/percapita_car_o.html

Source: Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy CentreTsinghua-BP Clean Energy Centre

Transportation accounts for 40%40% of annual oil consumption now and is increasing sharply.

China is already the third-largest car market in the world. The National Development and Reform Commission predicted that 55 million vehicles will be running on China’s roads by 2010. This number will increase to 370 million by 2030.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10

0 M

T

Oil Demand

Domestic production

Rising Transport Demand in China

Global energy demand continues to rise

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1971 2002 2010 2020 2030

mil

lio

n t

on

nes

oil

eq

uiv

alen

t

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass and Waste Other renewables

IEA World Energy Outlook

Major investment in new energy infrastructure$22 Trillion of investment in energy infrastructure is needed out to 2030 to meet demand.

Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure 2006-2030


UK: Share of fuels contributing to primary energy supply


The size of the challenge: a potential scenario to reach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in the UK

Source: BERR UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, June (2008).

UK: Energy consumption by sector


UK: Energy consumption by transport type


UK: Average new car CO2 emissions and Car use per person

Source: Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency; Department for Transport

Source: Derived from BREHOMES, taken from the Domestic Energy Fact File. Building Research Establishment

UK: Domestic energy consumption

UK: Ownership of central heating

Source: GfK Home Audit from the Domestic Energy Fact File, Building Research Establishment.

UK: Carbon dioxide emissions on an IPCC basis and measurements towards targets


UK: Sulphur dioxide emissions by sector


Examples of Energy Technology Development at Imperial College: Fuel Cells, Bioenergy and Solar

• Fuel Cell Programme– Basic materials and device research – CeresPower spun out in 2001; now with 70

employees and partnership with British Gas to create domestic fuel cell CHP

– Units will reduce household CO2 emissions by 20%

•Translated into a low CO2, low energy technique to produce biofuel naturally.

•Bioenergy Programme•Plant biology, microbiology, biotechnology and systems process engineering.

•Solar Programme•Photosynthesis, photochemistry, organic and nano-materials, device physics.

•Targetting low cost organic solar cells - Tomorrows PV.•A vision for direct solar production of hydrogen and other fuels – Artificial Leaf.

PLANET 2050

ALL-ELECTRIC BUILDINGS

ELECTRIC MOBILITY

Grantham Institute for Climate Change

LOWCARBON

ELECTRICITYSUPPLY

BIOMASSBIOFUELS

HYDROGENECONOMY

CO2

FROM THEAIR

PLANET2050

ELECTRIC FUTURES

PLANET 2050 will explore how to deliver 80% cuts in net CO2 emissions and beyond quickly

and without excessive costs through exploiting advanced technology and an integrated system approach.

LOWCARBON

PRODUCTION

Programme for Low And Negative Emission Technologies for 2050

Conclusions

• In the near term we need to rapidly deploy the technologies we have available today, both for energy demand reduction and for energy generation. But we will need to develop new technologies, behaviours and business models to meet our 2050 targets.

• We must explore a wide range of options – for example the large-scale use of low-carbon electricity could help achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050. But the scientific and engineering challenges associated with this are significant.

• To develop breakthrough technologies we need to support energy R&D&D – noting that public funding for energy research has more than halved globally in real terms since 1980.

• We need to understand how to manage the transition in our energy economy – at Imperial we will explore this through our new ‘Planet 2050’ programme.

• Many areas of the energy sector are short of critical skills – Universities have an important role to play in attracting, educating and retaining the very best young scientists and engineers to the energy sector.

Thank you

[email protected]


Professor Nigel Brandon Shell Chair Sustainable Development in Energy EPSRC Energy Senior Research...

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