Finding Order in Countries with Weak States: The Dilemma of the Somali Polities

David K. LeonardGovernance Team

IDS

The Questions

• The former Somalia has not had an effective state since 1991.

• What are the causes and consequences of this statelessness?

• How can an acceptable level of human security and order be found in these circumstances?

Eastern Africa

The Somali Polities Under Colonialism,

• Somalis are a distinct ethnic group, with their own language and culture.

• Largely pastoralist• Historically stateless• British Somaliland and (Italian) Somalia• (French) Djibouti• Significant numbers in Ethiopia (Ogaden) &

Kenya (North-east Province)

Somali Territories

Current Somali Polities

• Djibouti (Somali dominated)• Somaliland (reasserted indep in 1991)• Transitional Federal Government– Mogadishu– Puntland (autonomous)– Mudug (autonomous)

• Islamist (Kismayu and south-central)• Ethiopian Region V and Kenyan North-east

Livelihoods Under Statelessness

• Livestock production and trade OK• Fishing hurt by EU toxic dumping• Inter-riverine crop production hurt and thus

famine in south• Service infrastructure hurt as tax base is weak• Overall – probably better in north than under

Barre’s state

Governance without States?

• Order maintained by clan-based diya-paying groups of ca. 100 adult males

• Tit-for-tat• Governance is highly egalitarian• But now also distorted by military and

commercial patrons– Business Militias not v.v.

• Contract enforcement through sharia courts

Location of Major Clan Families in 1950s

Islam: Not Whether but What Type

• A good business partner is a good Muslim• All Sunnis, but in south– Sufis Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a – Wahabis al-Shabab

Failure of State-building from Above

• Continuous international efforts since 1991 to recreate the Somalia state

• All based on elite bargains and all have failed• Most recent is Transitional Federal Government

(2004)• Ethiopian incursion of 2006 ended in failure and

withdrawal• African Union stalled under Burundi & Uganda• Kenyan incursion of south?

Successful Governance from the Bottom

• Somaliland – elders elder delegates in +4 month negotiations (1991-1993)

• Puntland – in +3 month negotiations (1998) supported by militia leadership

• SSC (Sool, Sanaag and Cayn) – looks 2 ways• Galmudug -- Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a & Hawiye

clan• Kismayu and south – al Shabaab/ Hizbul Islam

Encouraging Governance

• Interpeace (WSP); Bryden, Menkhaus• From the bottom• Without worrying about UN statehood, size or

regularity• Encouraging through UN trust fund aid to

whatever is working

Challenges -- Piracy

• Puntland• Eyl but• Money & power• Don’t want to force into Islamist hands• More effective NATO corridors

Challenges – Terrorism in Kenya

• Legitimate Kenyan interests• Now supported by Ethiopia (& US)• But can it succeed or will it exacerbate?• Negotiations inhibited by unwillingness to deal

with Islamist polities or by lack of internal control?

• Counter-attacks by drone?